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Bailey Nevener

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Everything posted by Bailey Nevener

  1. Posted 22 hours ago (edited) Date May 13, 2021 Status (Live/Sim/PCT Sim) PCT Sim Performance Questions What did I do well? I didn't trade in the first minute. Found a 60 minute hammer that I could get a directional bias from. (PLUG) What could I have done better? Upon reviewing the video I saw that it did not BID over premarket high. I should have only added on minute 3 if this occurred. I should have expanded my 1 minute chart so I didn't accidentally place my stop higher when the chart expanded (as I clicked). I need to keep my stops active until hit (that starts with clicking in the right place when I buy shares). I should not have shorted against that 60 minute hammer. Only when there is just a regular range break should I do this (60 minute range break without a hammer). Psychology Questions What's your performance pressure out of ten? ( 0 = too comfortable; 10 = too anxious) 6 Is the current way I am trading going to lead to long term success? No, my losses have been very high. I am trading sub par stocks because I am not seeing what I want in the first minute. ABCD's might be my next step because of this change in performance.
  2. I appreciate the feedback. I try to distill the journaling process into its most basic parts and put all of the lessons from the most recent week into a weekly review. Otherwise the review process is way too overwhelming to the point of being useless when I look back after several months. I have found that I don't really like going back through individual trades after a long period of time because I usually feel I've developed enough since then that I don't want to "taint" my current view of the market with old thinking. That's why I track generalities of how I'm doing from day to day in order to stay an active participant in my development, but not so intense that my anxiousness leads me to unnecessarily making adjustments. The weekly review distills my concerns from one week to the next, so I can clearly distinguish between trading anomalies and recurring issues. Otherwise I feel too responsible for my results from day to day rather than letting my strategy reveal its viability through frequency. Thanks for reading.
  3. Date May 12, 2021 Status (Live/Sim/PCT Sim) PCT Sim Performance Questions What did I do well? Not much! Showed up to the computer. What could I have done better? It is clear that I should not enter in the first minute. My sample size is large enough to confirm that my intuition during this time is very poor. plus my tight stops work against me during the price discovery. Set my stops immediately after entry. Uncontrolled losses will result if I don't do this mechanically. Get in on a range break. avoid trading intra-range on the 60 minute chart. (aka be more picky with tickers) Psychology Questions What's your performance pressure out of ten? ( 0 = too comfortable; 10 = too anxious) 5 Is the current way I am trading going to lead to long term success? No, I need to set my stops and let them get hit.
  4. Trust me when I say this is by far the most frustrating thing about using a broker. Their variable margin is too much for me.
  5. Good evening MIGS, I have had similar issues in the past. My memory isn't crystal clear, but I believe that when I looked into this the math ended up working out. Basically there are variable margin requirements for each ticker, so if you are only allowed 25% margin, then IBKR will restrict a significantly higher amount of buying power than the position is actually worth. Anytime you have this issue, check the Short List provided by DAS. You can view if the symbol that is selected has any margin limitations. TRADE > SHORT LIST SHORT LIST It is currently after hours, so this isn't updated correctly. However, this could be your next step in troubleshooting. Good luck! Bailey Nevener
  6. Date May 10, 2021 Status (Live/Sim/PCT Sim) PCT Sim Performance Questions What did I do well? I didn't force myself to make goal amount today. When I had platform issues I took off my positions. What could I have done better? Had my platform setup correct, but there's always problems when you come back from a hiatus. Held onto INTC for the day run. (That was when I had platform issues) Got to the computer sooner than 6:16 a.m. and get setup faster so I wasn't rushed at the open. Psychology Questions What's your performance pressure out of ten? ( 0 = too comfortable; 10 = too anxious) 3 Is the current way I am trading going to lead to long term success? Yes, the trading style will lead to the long term success, however I will need to make sure that I am setup to trade sooner than 6:28 a.m.
  7. Okay that break was about 45 days. It was very emotional at its inception, but now its almost over. Tomorrow I should be able to set up a DAS account and get back into the groove of things. That means going over hotbuttons and rehashing my strategy. I am going to be uploading everything through a stream just like last time. Let's see how it goes!
  8. Well it looks like the DAS setup starts on the 6th, so I guess I'm not going to be trading until Wednesday.
  9. I'll give you that. You would definitely need to already have a big account for the edge to be worth it with commissions.
  10. You got me, I said it in a way that tripped me up. Here's the quote: "2 gains required to = 1 loss in his strategy" What I meant is, if he had 100 iterations with 70 percent of the time making a gain, then they would have 70 units of gain, and 60 units of loss. That's 10 units of gain. Which would be 5R in this case. Here's what I said, which framed it incorrectly: Iteration Gain (+0.5) Loss (-1) 1 0.5 2 0.5 3 0.5 4 0.5 5 0.5 6 0.5 7 0.5 8 0.5 9 0.5 10 0.5 11 0.5 12 0.5 13 0.5 14 0.5 15 0.5 16 0.5 17 0.5 18 0.5 19 0.5 20 0.5 21 0.5 22 0.5 23 0.5 24 0.5 25 0.5 26 0.5 27 0.5 28 0.5 29 0.5 30 0.5 31 0.5 32 0.5 33 0.5 34 0.5 35 0.5 36 0.5 37 0.5 38 0.5 39 0.5 40 0.5 41 0.5 42 0.5 43 0.5 44 0.5 45 0.5 46 0.5 47 0.5 48 0.5 49 0.5 50 0.5 51 0.5 52 0.5 53 0.5 54 0.5 55 0.5 56 0.5 57 0.5 58 0.5 59 0.5 60 0.5 61 0.5 62 0.5 63 0.5 64 0.5 65 0.5 66 0.5 67 0.5 68 0.5 69 0.5 70 0.5 71 -1 72 -1 73 -1 74 -1 75 -1 76 -1 77 -1 78 -1 79 -1 80 -1 81 -1 82 -1 83 -1 84 -1 85 -1 86 -1 87 -1 88 -1 89 -1 90 -1 91 -1 92 -1 93 -1 94 -1 95 -1 96 -1 97 -1 98 -1 99 -1 100 -1 Total 35 -30 He has a 5R edge. What I meant to say: (Which by the way, was this: "2 gains required to = 1 loss in his strategy") Iteration Gain (+1) Loss (-2) 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 16 1 17 1 18 1 19 1 20 1 21 1 22 1 23 1 24 1 25 1 26 1 27 1 28 1 29 1 30 1 31 1 32 1 33 1 34 1 35 1 36 1 37 1 38 1 39 1 40 1 41 1 42 1 43 1 44 1 45 1 46 1 47 1 48 1 49 1 50 1 51 1 52 1 53 1 54 1 55 1 56 1 57 1 58 1 59 1 60 1 61 1 62 1 63 1 64 1 65 1 66 1 67 1 68 1 69 1 70 1 71 -2 72 -2 73 -2 74 -2 75 -2 76 -2 77 -2 78 -2 79 -2 80 -2 81 -2 82 -2 83 -2 84 -2 85 -2 86 -2 87 -2 88 -2 89 -2 90 -2 91 -2 92 -2 93 -2 94 -2 95 -2 96 -2 97 -2 98 -2 99 -2 100 -2 Total 70 -60 He has a 10 unit gain. Which is 5R because the units I'm talking about are worth 0.5 Risk. (Which doesn't matter because you can just increase size) "to me it does not look to be a worth it." An edge is worth it if it works. "So instead of throwing fireballs lets keep the discussion moderate." I do not need to go post to post to point out how sideways you get on people, my last post about it has 4 people reacting in agreement. Which really says something because most people don't even log in.
  11. That’s an edge. You literally just described an edge. 2 gains required to = 1 loss in his strategy If he has a 70% win rate: 70 wins per 30 losses Ratio 2:1 P/L adjusted = 70 R won for every 60 R lost A 10R edge. That is an irrefutable edge by your own metrics. Blind leading the blind. This kind of advice I see you regularly and unabashedly give. Maybe it’s the rhetoric in the way that you write that makes you sound extremely authoritative, but in any case, it is clear that you are not an authority on the matter. If one has a math degree and they say 2 +2 = 5, that doesn’t mean that is actually the case. Similarly, if someone were a BBT member for 4 years with a thousand posts, that doesn’t mean what they say about trading is correct, or well thought out. I’m writing this here as a warning to others. If this wasn’t ADVICE being given by I wouldn’t say anything. But since it’s ADVICE you are consistently giving I am saying something.
  12. To be frank, The person criticizing you is currently the most active close-minded person on this site. He isn’t crunching the numbers. You are. He is being far to assertive about what he is saying to you while only leaning on half-baked intro-to-statistics level reasoning. The most appropriate thing he could have said to you is, continue to increase your sample size. Your equity curve is up, so continue to increase sample size to be certain you won’t revert to the mean 0. Once again, him calling what are you doing irrational is unfounded. However, there is truth that trying to manage such a small R profit per trade exposes you to more aggressive drawdowns if you “mess up”. Your equity curve is up. Continue to refine your parameters for entry and tracking. Increase sample size. I’m not sure if HE is profitable because he is basically trying to call the TOP on your equity UPTREND when it has shown NO WEAKNESS. NOW THATS A LOSING STRATEGY! Cheers.
  13. I am going to be able to trade that morning because the reservation is at 12:15 pm. We are in business!
  14. May 3rd is the starting date. Going to Six Flags that day, so this is awkward.
  15. Good morning Khaled, I am pretty sure that the premium of LONG options ends up deterring most from hedging their positions with them. If you hold less than 100 shares of stock and you are LONG a PUT against it: At expiration date your PUT option will either expire worthless or be exercised. Expire worthless - You lose the entire premium you paid for the option contract Exercised - You will be obligated to sell shares of the stock, but if you hold less than 100 shares you will end up actually being short stock. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong) IMO I would buy a LONG PUT against my LONG STOCK position only for the short term. I wouldn't let my LONG PUT expire worthless because that's a lot of money lost to the wind for no reason. If you detect a double top or something like that in your stock pattern but you don't want to sell shares, this may be an 'option' for you. I'm not an expert by any means on options, but I know that they are a powerful tool. SHORTING options has a lot of support because of the statistical advantage option sellers have over option buyers. The purpose of having a limit order is so that during the filling process of your order, you won't have a random fill super far away from the last sale price. Almost always after a huge spike like that occurs the price comes right back to what it was trading at beforehand. In other words, you are just risking getting slapped in the face prior to getting filled with your full order. If you aren't trading with large size it really shouldn't be a problem. Although this could be more of a problem during lower volume parts of the day etc... Good luck out there, Bailey Nevener
  16. Peak Capital will be starting soon, the current session ends on the 22 of April.
  17. Just waiting to close my DBX position out at 35 or for PCT to start. Whichever comes first.
  18. Hey guys I had a trading day where I started trading at 1:00 a.m. after studying calculus all night and I didn’t stop trading until 11:00 a.m. and I was down $7,000. I had an amazing green month up to that point and blew it all up at once. I use to have risk controls that stopped me out at $-250 loss, but unfortunately since I had the open DBX position I didn’t want to get automatically stopped out. Therefore I disabled them. I decided I would wait until PCT started and just use the consistency I garnered the last 3 months and take it into a funded account by them. It should be easier since my buying power won’t be restricted by my DBX position and emotionally I won’t be risking my own money. After I close out my DBX position in the future I will re enable my risk controls and make money from there. Until then I’m just mentally recouping from that massive drawdown. Thanks for reading fellas!
  19. Wow great job shutting it off after you hit your max number of trades losable. That's tough after a green streak. I was scared for that on Friday lol!
  20. I know! We might actually make it this time lol! I had a couple close calls, like on Wednesday and today, so I have to make sure that I stay on top of my mistakes. I'm due for a red day though lol I feel it. My main focus right now is to try to stay on top of my 'bad' trades (impulsive 1 minute entries etc...) because I found out that was actually the main thing giving me red/breakeven days. My edge is pretty much dependent on being able to add, add, and add some more based on the price action. I move my average and stop fluidly to stick in trades. And since my Interactive Brokers account balance was so close to 25k for the past month and prior, it actually really degraded my consistency. It seems that 35k is probably as low as I can handle with that 2400 DBX position. What about your trading?
  21. Best week in terms of green to red day ratio I've ever had. It must be the streaming that is keeping my real-time decision making accountability up.
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