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Bailey Nevener

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Everything posted by Bailey Nevener

  1. In the period where you aren't consistently profitable, I would suggest staying away from the "avoiding criteria" as you called it. Specifically I am suggesting reducing the amount of requirements to enter a trade. It is a bad idea to draw almost any conclusions when you are starting out. It is better to just foster an environment where you feel like you can follow the rules that you have set for yourself, no matter how basic they are. This is an example of a no-assumptions trading plan: Find a 60 minute range break candidate. (Why you are looking at the stock) Enter at the 60 minute range break with your stop below the nearest technical level. (How you are managing risk) Let the trade go to 2:1 and take 90% of the position. (Giving yourself a reason to exit) Hold onto the last 10% to 4:1 or get stopped out at your original stop or breakeven. (Allowing yourself to become more experienced with the price action) This breakdown is meant to be changed, but only after you "just can't take it anymore". Let the data change your strategy, and keep it as simple as possible until that happens. Good luck hombre.
  2. In terms of "hedging" it only really makes sense if you are betting on two supposedly correlated symbols. AKA longing one symbol and shorting a different symbol to reduce exposure to market conditions. That is, to get beta as close as possible to 0 and make money on the basis of an individual stock's move separate from the overall market. One thing that you technically would be hedging against I suppose is the slippage when you are exiting the entire position. However, the commissions and fees associated with opening up another position likely will outweigh that difference unless you are entering positions with a rebate and exiting with a rebate. Maybe it would actually end up helping in that way if I actually did the math, but I'm not sure. Also as a finish it is important to understand that this is incorrect. The loss is unlimited in this net-short scenario and the potential gain is the net-short shares you are holding multiplied by the stock price. It's more straight forward "hedge" like this with options. (You aren't hedging, your net-short scenario essentially is a short equal to 30% of whatever your short position size is, since it was "offset" by the 70% long position) For example, you could open a long CALL with a short shares position. The long CALL gives you a limited loss on the shares.
  3. I use it, but you definitely don't need it. In my opinion it is less important the higher the timeframe that you are trading on.
  4. I got you Gator. Fortunately I do what you are asking all the time. Here's my hotbutton layout for reference, but what you are asking only needs pieces of it. There are 3 Steps to do what you require: 1) I enter the trade with a double click at my desired stop price, and then I click either of these hotbuttons. 2) If I want to take a partial at a specific price I first specify what % I want to take off of my current position with these. 3) I then double click where I want to take said partial on the chart and click either of these. Here's the hotbutton scripts associated with each step: 1) [L] Ask: StopPrice=Price-0.01;DefShare=BP*0.97;Price=Ask-Price+0.01;SShare=50/Price;Share=DefShare-SShare;DefShare=DefShare+SShare;SShare=Share;Sshare=DefShare-SShare;Share=0.5*SShare;TogSShare;ROUTE=LIMIT;Price= Ask+0.05;TIF=DAY+;BUY=Send; [SS] Bid: StopPrice=Price+0.01;DefShare=BP*0.97;Price=Price-Bid+0.01;SShare=50/Price;Share=DefShare-SShare;DefShare=DefShare+SShare;SShare=Share;Sshare=DefShare-SShare;Share=0.5*SShare;TogSShare;ROUTE=LIMIT;Price= Bid-0.05;TIF=DAY+;SELL=Send; 2) [Pos] 10%: Share=Pos * 0.10; Etcetera... 3) [P] Set Price (Green): ROUTE=LIMIT; TIF=DAY+; SSHARE=0 ;SELL=Send; [P] Set Price (Red): ROUTE=LIMIT; TIF=DAY+; SSHARE=0 ; BUY=Send; See you in chat fella.
  5. SEP 2, 2021 Don't be alarmed, I deposited 5k to catch this rip on TTCF and once it finishes its predictable move I will withdraw it again. Account is actually at 18k. Looks like we are doing pretty good though! Hopefully we are around this amount when I move into the house so it can be a simple transfer. This is waaaay easier than when I was working all of the time. Honestly it has been a joke in comparison. Working and trading is a nightmare, proportionate to the hours and demoralization IMO. SEP 3, 2021 I withdrew the $5k I deposited to catch the run and another $500 went into my auxiliary checking account. Always good to pay yourself if you can. Helps the mental aspect. I locked the TTCF position in today. I sold 300 shares after I saw it rip through and subsequently reject heavily at $25 (which was also just below a daily level), and then I sold the rest after it broke LOD. I caught a huge move on it ($16 - $25) and held until I saw a sell signal. If I would have seen more volume on the daily chart during the overall price push-up I would have probably held through this pullback, but the run was only averaging just a couple million shares a day. For this kind of squeeze thesis I would like to see an average of 3M+ volume increasing each day for me to hold to ATH. Or if I saw a large range expansion day with 5M+ shares traded I would probably expect a gap very close to ATH the next day where I would decide what to do like today. If it runs down to $21.50 I might initiate another starter position.
  6. I’m under contract, so once I get into the new house I’ll be able to set back up with a live account!
  7. Started around: JAN 1, 2021 Currently: AUG 24, 2021 Only 10k more to go until this baby is over PDT! I began with 8k and have been just taking it super easy. My best results come that way. Through recurring deposits it has about $1k that I have put in on top of the original amount, hence the +$6k profits. It has been mostly swing trades and a few day trades to get to this point. The equity curve looks nasty, but trust me it has all been controlled. If this were from mostly day trading it would be that nice x = y line. In this situation I am obviously having to keep my positions rather large and trade infrequently (Robinhood is not exactly speedy), which results in big equity swings. No stress and infrequent trading = profits. Fortunately I am currently the most underleveraged I've been since I started the account, and I'm in positions with very little possibility of running down with very large upside. ================================================================================= Robinhood doesn't really have the trustworthiness for me to take scalp day trades often. I missed out on my playbook trade yesterday on PFE, which probably would have stacked another $500 - $1000 in this bad boy. Unfortunately, if I push it in that regard on this platform I will inevitably get burned if everything isn't working perfectly, so once I saw that Robinhood was bugging out a little, I let it go without me . This is WAY less stressful than being 40k in the hole at 17% interest though lol, so I can wait for that last 10k. On a side note It looks like my offer for a new house is about to get accepted.
  8. Scroll down to see the beginning of the Monthly Recaps.
  9. There is about a 100% percent change I am going to make my YouTube videos unlisted, so they can only be accessed through BBT.

    I don't know if I will ever remove the ones currently up from the internet though.

  10. Just waiting to get into my new house to fund the live account again. So glad I am not wondering if I will make money or not anymore lol.
  11. TastyTrade is legit and Tastyworks is also amazing. They make the whole option process so simple. With theta being a factor in spreads, it really makes swing trading much more controllable. As for the OP, I'm assuming they are talking about Long OTM Call options. If you for some reason come across a stock that is slowly trending down, and for some reason you know that it is about to have a major bounce, then you can get OTM call options for extremely dirt cheap. Make sure that the expiration date is 56 days out or more otherwise you may not see an increase in the price of the OTM Call option even if there is a major bounce. Also make sure it is 56 days out or more because the theta really starts to work against you any sooner than that, so there is significantly less love in being wrong on the timing of the bounce. It is a good idea to have a delta of .15 or higher because of the aforementioned lack of responsiveness to price movement if it is too unlikely to hit the strike price. IMO it is probably better to get an OTM call option that has a very good chance of being in the money at the top of whatever bounce you are expecting, so that you can hold onto it if the trade continues to work. If you don't do that then the theta and implied volatility will swiftly chop your profit and your head off in the middle of the trade. Also trade management for Long OTM options (with a relatively close expiration): profit NOW is way better than profit later. Unless you are in the money: then profit now is still better than profit later. If you think you'll make an extra 15% if you hold on, just get out. If you think you'll make an extra 100% if you hold on, then consider holding it very strongly, and then sell half. Also anyone that says you can't make money consistently from long call options (including Tom Sosnoff) is almost always talking about at expiration. Duh. It is true that it is difficult to make money with OTM call options because there are lots of factors and you need to be right basically immediately. However, not for one second, does that mean you can't do it consistently. It just means you have to do it with these things in mind. I'm not an expert, but I did make 25k in two weeks from 3k with OTM options once. LOL.
  12. This table does not apply to all traders, but for those that have a strategy that is very buying power intensive. It takes in consideration that IBKR and other brokers actually limit us to 25% margin in several volatile tickers, so this table is actually conservative on what could possibly be done with consistency. I made this table to clearly display what the ideal scenario is for someone who has a successful strategy that is reliant on the upper limit of their buying power available. Several of my win days are larger than my goal amount ( x3 ) and some are SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than my goal amount ( x10 ), so I decided to simplify this table and go with a "If I never lost a single day at bare minimum goal amount" approach. With a starting balance of $25,000, 0.05% risk per trade, 5R goal amount, and big winners every so often, you would still have to wait probably at least 2 1/2 years before living off of this income was easily achievable. (assuming you want to continue to build the account while living off of the income) At first the numbers seem way too conservative, but then all of a sudden they seem unbelievable. Year $ Gain Risk Bump @ +10% Intervals Goal Amount 5R Risk Per Trade 0.05% Total Trading Days Years Months Days $15,263 $25,000 $63 $13 40 0 1 28 $27,500 $69 $14 80 0 3 25 $30,250 $76 $15 120 0 5 23 $33,275 $83 $17 160 0 7 21 $36,603 $92 $18 200 0 9 19 $40,263 $101 $20 240 0 11 16 $27,039 $44,289 $111 $22 280 1 1 9 $48,718 $122 $24 320 1 3 7 $53,590 $134 $27 360 1 5 4 $58,949 $147 $29 400 1 6 32 $64,844 $162 $32 440 1 8 30 $71,328 $178 $36 480 1 10 27 $47,901 $78,461 $196 $39 520 2 0 20 $86,307 $216 $43 560 2 2 18 $94,937 $237 $47 600 2 4 16 $104,431 $261 $52 640 2 6 13 $114,874 $287 $57 680 2 8 11 $126,362 $316 $63 720 2 10 9 $84,860 $138,998 $347 $69 760 3 0 1 $152,898 $382 $76 800 3 1 29 $168,187 $420 $84 840 3 3 27 $185,006 $463 $93 880 3 5 25 $203,507 $509 $102 920 3 7 22 $223,858 $560 $112 960 3 9 20 $246,243 $616 $123 1000 3 11 18 $165,367 $270,868 $677 $135 1040 4 1 10 $297,954 $745 $149 1080 4 3 8 $327,750 $819 $164 1120 4 5 6 $360,525 $901 $180 1160 4 7 4 $396,577 $991 $198 1200 4 8 31 $436,235 $1,091 $218 1240 4 10 29 $292,958 $479,859 $1,200 $240 1280 5 0 22 $527,844 $1,320 $264 1320 5 2 19 $580,629 $1,452 $290 1360 5 4 17 $638,692 $1,597 $319 1400 5 6 15 $702,561 $1,756 $351 1440 5 8 12 $772,817 $1,932 $386 1480 5 10 10 $518,994 $850,099 $2,125 $425 1520 6 0 3 $935,109 $2,338 $468 1560 6 1 31 $1,028,619 $2,572 $514 1600 6 3 28 $1,131,481 $2,829 $566 1640 6 5 26 $1,244,630 $3,112 $622 1680 6 7 24 $1,369,092 $3,423 $685 1720 6 9 21 $1,506,002 $3,765 $753 1760 6 11 19 $1,011,372 $1,656,602 $4,142 $828 1800 7 1 12 $1,822,262 $4,556 $911 1840 7 3 10 $2,004,488 $5,011 $1,002 1880 7 5 7 $2,204,937 $5,512 $1,102 1920 7 7 5 $2,425,431 $6,064 $1,213 1960 7 8 33 $2,667,974 $6,670 $1,334 2000 7 10 30 $2,264,355 $2,934,771 $7,337 $1,467 2040 8 0 23 $3,228,248 $8,071 $1,614 2080 8 2 21 $3,551,073 $8,878 $1,776 2120 8 4 18 $3,906,181 $9,765 $1,953 2160 8 6 16 $4,296,799 $10,742 $2,148 2200 8 8 14 $4,726,479 $11,816 $2,363 2240 8 10 12 $5,199,126 $12,998 $2,600 2280 9 0 4 With a 3k account this last year I was able to make 34k (Totaling 37k), paid off my debt, and then made another 6.5k from only 8k starting balance in the last 3 months. I'm only 'flexing' these numbers because there isn't very much announced success on here to the point that it can be discouraging. I wasn't profitable for 3 years, and before I started making money I literally lost all of my money and money that wasn't mine. If you are someone reading this that doesn't have very much money, I would really encourage you to find good investments rather than day trading, while you learn to trade. Learn to do the conservative routes like selling covered calls and selling puts so you can get the confidence under your belt and build your equity. Slow is smooth, smooth is fast. Eventually you will stumble upon opportunities that are obvious rather than forcing trades because you won't have the stress of 'making it' as a day trader. Those opportunities will build your account and give you peace of mind while you chip away at this skill. All that being said, this table is actually achievable. Stay the course my friends. Bailey Nevener
  13. I was trading PUTs on AMC with my girl's Robinhood account, so I caught the initial drop with her, and then I made goal on DAS.
  14. Hey Billy Jenkins, This is probably what you are looking for. It isn't a complete script, but it should be an easy implementation for your needs. Good luck trading, Bailey Nevener
  15. I've been getting in a REALLY bad habit of "entering" several times in a 3 second interval. Its from the desire to have massive share size. Which obviously worked well in this example. I need to work on sensitizing myself to the correct mechanics in trading again. I feel very impulsive in my movements. One entry, one click. When I add, one click, press the stop loss button etc. Sometimes things just get so fast that I feel very in control, but I certainly am not. I am lucky I didn't mess today up. I only ever had a max drawdown of $200 or so on the day. So the gain wasn't just massive share size, I did it with very little risk. I am just feeling like I am getting reckless. This sensitization can be solved with DAS replay by preforming the known entries and exits purposefully in a controlled manner. Several clicks at each entry is something that I cannot work with over time. I must solve this issue.
  16. I taught my girlfriend the strategy and she killed it today. She accidentally barely had any shares at the low entry, but it was awesome to watch.
  17. Hey fellas that concludes my PCT Sim trading. I blew up the simulator account twice lol. Thankfully it was not a live account. The risk controls kept randomly turning on and off, so I had two large red days. I never trade in a live account without risk controls for this reason. If you take out the two huge red days my profitability was rather consistent. I missed a couple of TraderVue days, but you can see the overall trend here. I have been looking for a house while this challenge has been going on as well as going to school, so my attendance has been very sub-par. When I get the house I will probably switch back to a live account, but until then I will continue to trade in a simulator. Overall the challenge was a nice demonstration that (with proper risk controls) the open range breakout strategy utilized with my style is consistently profitable. I wish that I didn't have two blow up days, but I don't know if I will ever not need the risk controls to prevent them. I wake up very tired at least 1/20 days of the trading month, so it is inevitable that on one of those days I will make very bad decisions. I acknowledge that I need risk controls to be a profitable trader, fine with me! Thanks for reading.
  18. Not a lot of energy in these videos lol, but its just a running record of what happened. One day there will be spark! Date July 12, 2021 Status (Live/Sim/PCT Sim) PCT Sim
  19. Date July 9, 2021 Status (Live/Sim/PCT Sim) PCT Sim
  20. Date July 6, 2021 Status (Live/Sim/PCT Sim) PCT Sim
  21. Looking good! I've never used Fibonacci for my trading, any consistency with it?
  22. Wow that's awesome! I'll have to give chartlog another try.
  23. How are you tracking your stats to know if they are statistically profitable?
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