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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/26/2020 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    Wednesday - August 26, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to remain pegged in this area around 3440/3450 from yesterday's premarket. Price action from yesterday shows that 3430 is willing to be defended, as we pushed into that area and fully recovered once we couldn't go lower. Any action above the current range could lead to another Alternate Thesis move higher, but a second attempt to break yesterday's range may place us into the 3415 volume node for a while to consolidate. 10D 30M Chart /NQ building value near 11600 area during yesterday's session, leading to the VA Range coming higher as the Equilibrium Price is shifting higher. We continue to stay above the VA High 11580 and can continue higher given we have good support below us. 10D 30M Chart /RTY fell away from V POC and into the VA Low in yesterday's session, with a slight recovery into the afternoon. As we are in the VA Range and below the V POC, I'd be looking for VA Low 1560 to hold as support for an attempt back to retest VA HIgh 1585. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Natural Gas up 1.5%, back into 2.55 resistance tested multiple times over past few days. A breakout may be led by a sharp rally higher, so watching for breakout or another rejection. Other futures not showing much in terms of price and areas of interest. Bonds slightly down, Crude slightly down from 43.5 resistance, Gold seems weak losing 1925 area of support after slipping over multiple days from the 2025 highs. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology starting strong with some earnings beats and most major names up roughly 1%. Semiconductors are also holding up some strength. Cons. Disc. showing strength and on the verge of an ATH breakout. Weak Sectors: Utilities losing all of Monday's price action along with Energy and Financials never getting off the ground. Industials holding up a potential Cup and Handle on the Daily, but need to clear 78.50. Things to Watch: Yesterday, strong sectors like Financials and Industrials were sold off and rotated into Technology and Communications, so be wary of another occurrence of a 'bait-and-switch' on strong turning weak and vice versa. $CRM: Earnings $SRNE: Oversold Bounce (Morning Star Pattern on Daily) into Gap Up $TSLA: Remains Strong
  2. 2 points
    Good evening Teruki, First off, these kinds of questions are what this site needs. Also, the video you linked is actually a recap of $ANF. Here is the video you meant to link based on the screenshots you provided. Analytical thought and true deconstruction of a trade is what really makes us all better traders. As far as your question is concerned, I am not Thor, and I cannot speak for Thor. However, I have spoken with Thor in the chat before with a similar deconstruction, and I have an idea of where he is coming from. I will now answer your questions directly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1: Why is it more of an ascending triangle than a VWAP false break out? In other words, how can you see that the stock would go up where Thor placed his initial order? This is an excellent question. It is basically asking, "What is the deal with pattern recognition ambiguity, how can we make a decision with two different available interpretations of a trading setup?". Obviously a moderator-esc approach to this question would be to tell you that two people can take two different trades on a stock and it isn't guaranteed that either strategy will work out 100% of the time, so therefore having opposing interpretations is the 'name of the game' and cannot be avoided. This is true. However, I believe that you have at least 3 brain cells, so let's actually think about what is happening here on a technical level. A. VWAP False Breakouts, as outlined in Andrew Aziz's book, happen in a specific Time Frame. That time frame is directly after the Open, a.k.a. Midmorning. Therefore it cannot be a VWAP False Breakout trade in line with that strategy. B. Let's think about it from a price action perspective. Before we get into the weeds of the individual candles, we have to think about the trade as a whole. First consideration: Is $AMD currently in an uptrend, or a downtrend? Uptrend. How do we know it is in an uptrend? Because it has been making higher lows and higher highs. As a general rule, we should prefer continuation instead of a reversal. This means we should have to be CONVINCED the trend will reverse, rather than have to be CONVINCED it will continue. This is also a later day play, where stocks tend to trend. So it is already a more attractive long. Second consideration: What has the price action been doing? On the five minute chart, the price has clearly reversed from the lows, but when it hit VWAP earlier, it did a nasty drop. However, the drop was on fairly low volume, so I would expect a retest of VWAP. This kind of low volume, large range, drop tells me I should be cautious on placing my stop super close after any entry. Third consideration: Heavy wicks on the 5 minute chart. Obviously huge wicks pointed against your trade direction is a huge No-No to go long into during the morning session, but remember, it is 3 p.m. at the time of this trade. The five minute chart essentially becomes the new 1 minute chart at this point. With this in perspective, you would expect to see some kind of pushback at VWAP, which could give an excellent entry to go long if it comes down to a decent distance from a support. If these 5 minute candles are treated as 1 minute candles, this pullback would be a joke. It can now clearly be seen as a preferable long with a stop placed under that higher low. Remember to perhaps space it down a little bit so you can hold onto your position in the event of something like the previous chop. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2: Without the level 2 and tape information, are there more signs of the stock going up than down where he added? The only thing he has going for him here is that this is a late day play, he is EXPECTING a trend continuation. He doesn't know if he will get it. Once the price flew down he was nervous he would get stopped out, but what did it do? It traded flat above a support. Once he saw it was probably the bottom of that short term range, it broke up slightly and he added Risk to his position from the bottom of that range. At that moment it was very possibly ANOTHER higher low. If he was expecting continuation, then it would make sense to add at the bottom of the range, rather than at the area of his original position, which was obviously closer to the breakout region of the range. These are considerations that can help you have a preference on a trade and exactly what your options are for stop placement. This is not a complete strategy or a fool proof ideology, but it is a useful way to organize the chaos. Here are the items of importance I have laid out: 1) The Trend is up, try to go with the trend if you can, but if you are CONVINCED it will reverse, then check to see if an equal amount of signals point to continuation, and then choose the continuation trade if they are equal or don't take a trade until the chart develops hammer candles and stars that provide more information. 2) The Time Frame suggests that current trends will continue. 3) The Price Action is not respecting the 1 minute chart at all, so treat the higher timeframe (the 5 minute chart) as the new one minute chart, and seldom place a stop below any higher low on the 1 minute chart that is not dually represented as a higher low on the 5 minute. (If you see a bunch of 1 minute hammer candles at the base of the 1 minute higher low, you could consider a stop under them as valid, even if that higher low is not represented on the 5 minute). This is how I view it. Rate me if you dare lol.
  3. 2 points
  4. 2 points
    I have been with the community since April 2018. I will keep it brief. The success I have found is 100% due to BBT and persistence. I have never been a part of another community and never had any interest in looking elsewhere. The good changes have been an increase in resources, more polished presentations and equipment, Andrew's profit has gone up showing what's possible without sacrificing consistency, and more moderators with different trading styles to help people find their niche. The only bad is I miss Andrew's trading recaps, but he has so much going on trying to make this community (which is already the greatest out there) even better. Overall, I believe the community has gotten so much better over the past 2+ years its hard to believe. I don't know how Andrew and the rest of the moderators continue to find time to make the community better, but it is appreciated by me. Thank you to the entire BBT community for everything they/you do!
  5. 2 points
    Thanks for the well thought out replies @Bailey Nevener, @Paul aka Aurbano, and @Jason Hoskins. Much appreciated and your thoughts helped me pull the trigger on a lifetime membership. I'm interested in contributing to the community in a meaningful way and I'm not yet sure what to do. I've learned through joining clubs in the past that the more you get involved the more you'll get out of being a part of it and the more fun you'll have along the way. For now, I'm observing, reading, and learning from all the talent here. Perhaps I'll find an opportunity to contribute soon. If you guys have any good ideas but not the time to implement them let me know.
  6. 1 point
    Every community needs a memes thread. I'll start.
  7. 1 point
    Oh My 19/22 only +4.7R My buying power is screwing me up with higher priced stocks, so my risk isn't $10 on them, so when I partial, it's a very small amount. I might have to put a top cap on stock prices I trade.
  8. 1 point
    DAY – 8.25.2020 Trades: 2 Symbols: 2; 5 (DT: MRNA, BABA; Swing: IBM, WKHS, APA, WDC, SAVE) Psychology: Slept well, starting to get up a little later – meditation and shorter pre-market preparations. Goal for the day: Day Trades – Test the new William HK in the open for ORBs. Continuation on BABA. Find catalyst stock. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Daily Market Wrap-up & Week in Review: SPY gapped up overnight, pressed down most of the day and then made its run around noon. Sector rotation occurred, Healthcare which was weak yesterday had a good day. Technology and Finance both pushed higher on continuation from yesterday. WL: DAY TRADES: SWING TRADES: WDC No change. Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down. Has fallen below $35, I will average down at below $34. IBM: No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral). WKHS Breakout day today leading up to USPS announcement? Recent two day ‘pop’ on unusual options action to the high side. Government fiscal year ends end of September, should here if they win some or all the USPS contract ($6B). Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level. SAVE No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections). APA No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international. Final Review: Goal for Day: 6/8 FAIL 1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS 2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS 3. Work on better entries – PASS 4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – PASS 5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – FAIL 6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS 7. 3SYO – FAIL 8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS #5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management Things I did well: Good recognition of MA bounces to reverse my position. Better job of looking for 9 EMA on the 5-min chart extensions. Things I did poorly: Poor continuation of comparing candle wicks/body size to other same type candles - volume comparison to recognize anomalies (VPA comparisons).
  9. 1 point
    Looks like $DAL was the trade of the day ?
  10. 1 point
  11. 1 point
    Is there a way to change our display name in the forum? The default was my first and last name and I can't seem to be able to change the name displayed in the edit profile option.
  12. 1 point
    Not at the moment as it's a custom program. Eventually I might break it out into a webapp for other users, but I have to automate a lot of stuff to do this and haven't had the time recently to finish that. I plan to do it in the future. I might see if Andrew wants me to do an advanced journal / data analysis webinar for the community.
  13. 1 point
  14. 1 point
    I pretty much did the same thing, but hotkey mistakes are really messing up my trading. Ive since introduced HOT Buttons in muy montage and are pretty clear to me. I still use hotkeys but have these just in case as some hot key mistakes can be costly in the challenge on monday. Looks like you are well prepared. I have to start journaling. I like the idea of putting sticker on the keyboard 🙂 Good luck friend.
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