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JaradBBT

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  1. Pierce and Fail - Trade Book (Work In Progress) Description: Pierce and Fail is a Trend Reversal Setup characterized by a Breakout through a Major Level of Support/Resistance with High Relative Volume, followed by a change in Sentiment and Momentum back through the Level as the Trend Inventory is Exhausted and must return to Value Areas to gain new inventory. Purpose: Reversal Strategy to use both as a Aggressive Scalp Trade with strong Risk/Reward (R/R) along with potential to Trend against initial entry. Using Volume Signals to help justify Entry and Stop Loss Area compared to arbitrary concepts that are not definite. Clear Risk/Reward; Quick Trade with Potential for Large Reversal. Observation: Kept observing stocks start by forming a Morning Range; once Range was broken (and retested), stocks tend to go in search of value. Stocks that have Higher Time Frame Trends and/or Ranges may have Intraday Transitions to Levels that provide signals for Reversal Strategies with a high R/R Probability. Concepts: Levels - Support and Resistance, Areas of High Interest based on prior Price Action Ex. Daily Levels (HOD/LOD), Inflection Pivots, Premarket High/Low, Whole Numbers, etc Ranges Support and Resistance Zones defined by Price Action moving between each Zone Transitions Moving from one Range to another, defined by a Low Volume Zone between Ranges Time Frame: 30 Minutes after Market Open until One Hour Before Market Close Indicators: Extended from 9 EMA on 5 Minute Chart High Volume Event(s) at Major Level Breakout is not sustained, Level 2 and Time and Sales shows Opposite Sentiment Confirmations: Reversal Candles on Smaller Time Frames Engulfing Pin Bar Wide Range/Resting/Pierce and Fail (Name Pending) Entry Signal: Price moves through Level on High Volume Sets a High/Low of that Breakout Returns through the Level (Level 2 and Time and Sales are showing Opposite Momentum to Trend) Entry at Level Stop Loss: Slightly beyond Breakout Price to avoid getting 'tagged' Target: Depends on Trade Management Moving Averages R Targets Pivots Avoid: High Volume Events that occur through Intraday Levels on Larger Time Frames Leads to Trend Continuation against the Reversal Setup Averaging Down if Price Breaks Below Stop Loss on Volume Sizing into a larger position once a second shakeout candle forms is acceptable, but be wary that if Price goes through the initial Stop Loss without returning to above the prior, the trend can continue against you quickly
  2. Thanks for the question traderforever. Just like using the shares of a stock as a tool to capture directional price movement, you can use Options as a tool to achieve the same result. Most trending strategies use options very well, as you typically have a defined area to stop out (usually a loss of morning support or some key level) along with good leverage in the position to capture a larger piece of the move. Quicker reversal or scalp strategies also work with options as long as certain factors are considered. Knowing how to use options requires knowing how to day trade along with understanding when to use and when NOT to use options for a directional play. A trader without large capital may think trading higher priced stocks using options is inherently less risky, yet if they can't afford to hold 100 shares of the stock (or even the appropriate Delta share size), then they may lose more than expected on quick movements and large Bid/Ask Spread sin the Option Markets. Short answer: Yes, there are similarities esp. with setups and strategies, but there are some key differences as well.
  3. Wednesday - September 09, 2020 Index Futures Watch /ES is beginning to show potential for bottoming, as we have moved outside our VA Low around 3380 and are gapping slightly above yesterday's low, which was near the low of the session. We expect some movement back into the VA Range, with 3500 as our V POC and high-end target for a bounce. 10D 30M Chart /NQ extended further below the VA Low 11555 and saw a potential low of 10935 on yesterday's AM session. Out short term target for a bounce is the VA Low, which coincides with recent lower highs before yesterday's selloff. We're seeing a larger gap up in the current PM session, which may lead to a larger move higher. 10D 30M Chart /RTY looks overall similar to /NQ, with more volume placed at V POC 1565 and less 'peaks' of volume near the VA High/Low. Short-term target is VA Low 1535 and 1550 recent lower highs. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Markets: Natural Gas up 3%, strong off the PM lows at 2.34 and possible trend continuation. Crude Oil up 1.7% finding some support around 36 and sitting at 37.5, may be a small bounce attempt on a larger selloff. Volatility and $VIX down 3.5% roughly, market bounce and possible reduction in downside hedging may lead to volatility reduction throughout the session. Dollar Index appears to have found a V bottom support around 91.75, starting to clear recent lower highs, but dollar weakness can lead to market strength. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Things to Watch: $OSTK (Strong Tech and 'Risk On' Day can lead to more volatile names moving 'faster' than others). $SPCE (Good volume and Gap Up, trying to get over yesterday's high and BIG Engulfing pattern last two days). $AAPL, $TSLA, and mostly Tech Sector for larger bounces.
  4. Monday - August 31, 2020 Index Futures Watch /ES opened Sunday night at 3508.5 and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 3524.5. We remain well above the VA Range and VA High 3467. Above I have marked a longer-term trendline with range expansion occurring over multiple years; I expect this to hold as resistance over the next week for at least a short-term pullback into normal price targets, such as 3400 support and 3380 V POC. 10D 30M Chart 5Y 1D Chart /NQ opened Sunday night at 12002.75 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 12091.75. The VA range is wide, with our V POC 11965 sitting within grasp. We would need to lose this area for a volume pocket to open below us, leading to roughly 11830 Support from 08/27 Thursday's session and 17000 as our target if we fall through (08/24 Session High and area of volume). We are well above our main trendline on longer timeframes and can be overdue for a larger pullback on market weakness. 10D 30M Chart 1Y 1D Chart /RTY opened Sunday night at 1576.9 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 1589.8. We're pulling back right to VA High 1578, with a healthy short-term uptrend after breakout out of last week's retracement. Our short-term target remains the recent high around 1605 and 1610 previous support turned resistance before the crash. 10D 30M Chart 1Y 1D Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Markets: Natural Gas down 3%, a lovely extension into a gap fill on the daily and pulling back. Market remains strong and simply needs a pullback. Dollar Index $DXY hanging right at support 92 area, continues to remain very weak with a shallow bounce at support on prior weeks. Bonds down slightly, watching $TLT for a bounce play into an extended selloff last Thursday. Crude up .7%, remains tightly range bound between 41.5 and 43.5, but building higher lows and attempting to break out of the range on a confirmation breakout or fail and breakdown. Silver up 1.5% vs Gold flat, getting above 28.5 in Silver would be a nice confirmation that this tightening range from 24/30 is trying to continue higher after a large consolidation. Volatility Futures up slightly, with the $VIX elevated 7.7%; we continue to see larger market participants starting to buy volatility and possible risk in the markets coming up soon. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Volume light this morning, so false readings are possible. Using Daily Charts for general ideas. $XBI BioTech nice support forming at prior breakout area, slight gap up and possible confirmation of retracement breakout. $XHB Home Builders strong uptrend, slight pullback last week into gap up and possible next leg higher. $XLB Materials ATH remains strong. $XLC ATH, gap up may just be misprint, but strong extension last week. $XLE Energy Trying to hold prior support around 36 and break out of larger retracement pullback from 39.50 bounce. $XLF Financials at 200 SMA on Daily, rejecting in PM. $XLI Industrials, trying to break out of smaller Handle and extend into higher ranges, currently rejecting in PM. $XLK Technology, remains strong overall, but may be too extended to continue holding markets higher. $XLP Cons. Staples, ATH, strong uptrend. $XLRE Trying to clear recent 36.8 highs, higher lows formed into tightening ranges. $XLU Weak overall, trying to hold 58.50 support area from early July and last week lows. $XLV ATH, having trouble extending well above current range, choppy action. $XLY Cons. Disc. Strong uptrend, remains elevated and continuing higher. $XME Metals holding support and trying to clear 25 area which is major resistance from last year multiple tests. Things to Watch: $AAPL/$TSLA - Stock Split insanity. $NIO/$WKHS - High volume volatile names in EV/ICE Replacement sector Volatility Products - Elevated VIX and Market can be primed for a large drop.
  5. Friday - August 28, 2020 Index Futures Watch /ES remains strong, having broken out of 3450 on Wednesday and rallying strongly in a Trend Day. Yesterday session was volatile and well-defined in various ranges, with the daily range between 3500 and 3465. We have the 3500 area to consider today, as potential resistance even though we've explored prices above in Premarket. Anything above yesterday's range will continue the trend and bring us farther into an extended move away from the VA Range (not in play due to how far away it currently lies). A drop leads to more volatile action, given we don't have enough value to support. 10D 30M Chart /NQ had similar price action, with a strong Trend Day on Wednesday and a volatile Range Day yesterday; however we continue to make higher highs/higher lows. The VA High sits right at the ATH yesterday of 12040 and we are at V POC 11940; a loss of yesterday's low will bring us into a volume pocket back to 11650 area of support, but if we break above yesterday's high, a similar move to Wednesday's breakout can occur. 10D 30M Chart /RTY shows a disconnect from the other two indexes, having a weak session Wednesday and a wide Range Day yesterday. We are right at VA HIgh 1580 and slightly above yesterday's high, so we will look to higher time frames to see that we're trying to 'break out' above 1590 recent pivot high. If we do, a strong rally back to recent 1605 highs can occur quickly through low volume resistance above. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Volatility up 1.4%, we're seeing volatility get bought yesterday even during periods of uptrending markets. Professionals are starting to hedge at these elevated levels. Silver up 1.7%, still trying to hold up after the large drop earlier this month, currently breaking higher from a retracement with roughly 28 as support. Gold up 1.5%, breaking higher after 1925 area holding multiple times as support in this week's sessions. This was previous ATH before the huge breakout last month. Other products up slightly, watching bonds after a huge drop on $TLT yesterday around the Fed speech updates. This is also seen with a weak Dollar $DXY currently at 92.5 support. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Interesting correlation, most sectors are up around .3-.7%. Bonds selling off yesterday led to Financials being strong, so seeing how they respond today. Weak Sectors: None this morning, just normal 'Underperforming' Sectors overall YTD. Things to Watch: Watchlist: Cruises, Financials (Weak Bonds yesterday), $NIO. Secondary: $TSLA (Split Next Week)
  6. Wednesday - August 26, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to remain pegged in this area around 3440/3450 from yesterday's premarket. Price action from yesterday shows that 3430 is willing to be defended, as we pushed into that area and fully recovered once we couldn't go lower. Any action above the current range could lead to another Alternate Thesis move higher, but a second attempt to break yesterday's range may place us into the 3415 volume node for a while to consolidate. 10D 30M Chart /NQ building value near 11600 area during yesterday's session, leading to the VA Range coming higher as the Equilibrium Price is shifting higher. We continue to stay above the VA High 11580 and can continue higher given we have good support below us. 10D 30M Chart /RTY fell away from V POC and into the VA Low in yesterday's session, with a slight recovery into the afternoon. As we are in the VA Range and below the V POC, I'd be looking for VA Low 1560 to hold as support for an attempt back to retest VA HIgh 1585. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Natural Gas up 1.5%, back into 2.55 resistance tested multiple times over past few days. A breakout may be led by a sharp rally higher, so watching for breakout or another rejection. Other futures not showing much in terms of price and areas of interest. Bonds slightly down, Crude slightly down from 43.5 resistance, Gold seems weak losing 1925 area of support after slipping over multiple days from the 2025 highs. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology starting strong with some earnings beats and most major names up roughly 1%. Semiconductors are also holding up some strength. Cons. Disc. showing strength and on the verge of an ATH breakout. Weak Sectors: Utilities losing all of Monday's price action along with Energy and Financials never getting off the ground. Industials holding up a potential Cup and Handle on the Daily, but need to clear 78.50. Things to Watch: Yesterday, strong sectors like Financials and Industrials were sold off and rotated into Technology and Communications, so be wary of another occurrence of a 'bait-and-switch' on strong turning weak and vice versa. $CRM: Earnings $SRNE: Oversold Bounce (Morning Star Pattern on Daily) into Gap Up $TSLA: Remains Strong
  7. Tuesday - August 25, 2020 Futures Watch /ES has reached new ATHs yesterday and is clearly breaking out into new territory. From a Volume Profile perspective, we would expect there to be low Volume Nodes in this range; this can be seen with the VA High 3390 far below and yesterday's tight range forming our first are of support around 3420. We can clear volume pockets below us, so we will be aware that the trend is on 'shaky ground' until the VA Range can move higher; any signs of a selloff will likely be quick through these voids is volume. 10D 30M Chart /NQ above the VA Range, shows signs of weakness yesterday, selling off quickly in the morning session to Friday's morning range around 11550 before getting bid higher into the afternoon. Currently the pre-market is having difficulty moving higher compared to /ES, so I'd be watching this for continued weakness paired with Sector Rotation concepts. VA High 11450 would be our first main target risking yesterday's high. 10D 30M Chart /RTY showing that 1608 and 1540 were indeed resistance/support for our Range Definition. We are sitting right at the V POC 1580, but our main structure is showing relative strength with our minor downtrend breaking out into the premarket. A healthy pullback near VA Low 1560 or above near 1570 prior neckline of past three sessions would be a nice area to consider building a position for a retest of 1605 recent highs. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Crude and Natural Gas up around .75%, Crude has been 'choppy' in recent sessions, staying tight between 41.5 and 43.5, but we had a strong reaction last Friday session off of 41.5 and we're moving strongly into the open and into 43. Natural Gas remains strong after breaking away from 2.15 and retesting 2.1 on 8/12. Since that range breakout, we haven't looked back. Bonds down with $TLT gapping down 1% and confirming a Bear Flag pattern on the daily. Gold and Silver seem to be moving on low volume, so we may see a breakout in some direction soon, but lack of interest at this time. Dollar Index held our Yearly Low 92.5 well and appears to be slowly climbing back up. Anything between 92 and 94 would be trapped between Horizontal Support and Trend Line Resistance on higher time frames. Liking Energy to have Relative Strength, Financials strong with Bond weakness. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Financials and Industrials gaining strength in Premarket. Also Energy getting stronger with Oil showing lots of strength in the Futures. Materials and Cons. Staples at ATH. Weak Sectors: Technology flat, so relatively weak compared to other areas. Things to Watch: $BA - Major breakout yesterday into a gap up, continuation to test the 190 range highs. $AAPL - Volatile and may drag the $QQQ down if it loses 500, $SPY will react as well having trouble getting off the ground unless all sectors align. $OXY/$SLB - Decent Energy candidates, focused on Oil names.
  8. Thursday - August 13, 2020 Futures Watch /ES has been steadily building value in the upper range of recent sessions such that the 10D 30M Volume Profile has moved; currently, the recent highs are now the new VA High 3380. Due to the fact we are in the VA Range and have touched the VA High, our Main Thesis is a pullback to test the V POC 3320, around the lows of Tuesday's session. If we break above VA High, we will begin a new round of 'Alternate Thesis' where we should return to the range, but may continue higher and causing additional trending days. 10D 30M Chart /NQ has remained inside the new VA Range 10875 to 11180, consolidating around V POC 11100 and currently testing VA High. A break above the range will target recent highs around 11280, or conservatively 11250 with a higher volume node as a target. Otherwise, we'll look to return to V POC on a pullback. 10D 30M Chart /RTY has a wide VA Range with numerous volume 'pockets' below; ideally staying near V POC 1585 can lead to moves higher to recent highs and VA High 1605; however, we're currently below and have some risk to reject V POC for moves lower to different volume nodes (1560, 1540, and VA Low 1500). 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver up 2.5% after a large selloff Tuesday and bounce around 23.50, target 27.50 on bounce as it provided support during the rally. Watching Gold, but currently tight consolidation and trying to hold 1920 area after a similar bounce as silver. Watching Natural Gas, Gas Report out at 10:30 ET Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology and BioTech up after strong days yesterday, continuation may occur and hold up QQQ Weak Sectors: Financials down again after starting strong yesterday and selling off most of the day. Other sectors starting slightly lower. Things to Watch: SECTOR ROTATION - Keeps occurring where usually One/Two sectors are strong while One/Two are weak. Usually a back and forth between Technology, Financials/Energy, and Health Care With Financials earlier this week, Technology and Health Care yesterday, and now we'll see which one matters or if they all are range-bound, leading to a choppy market. Watching: $AAPL, $RVLV, $SRNE, $FAT (Low Float) Secondary: $SLV, Natural Gas after Gas Report at 10:30 ET
  9. Tuesday - August 11, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to be in 'Alternate Thesis' where we have moved well past the VA High now higher at 3320 and continuing to squeeze higher, leading to a rally and shorts covering. I marked 3337 as a possible target is this scenario, which we have achieved, broke through, and retested as support on yesterday's session. We have good volume support below near 3350, so we would need to lose or gap below this area to consider VA High as a target below; the current thoughts are we will continue to go higher until we have a clear reversal signal/day. 10D 30M Chart /NQ has moved the VA Range into the current range, testing the VA High 11275 highs on Friday before falling back into V POC around 11050 at the time. Yesterday we did try to lose the marked support, yet we closed slightly above and moved higher until this Premarket session, where we quickly fell right back to this area. Larger structure is showing weakness in this area, as rotation is occuring in the overall markets. 10D 30M Chart /RTY is moving strongly off of a test of 1540 support and current VA High. Alternate Thesis is in play; however, volume structure below is less supportive if a resistance and selloff were to occur. We will look for continuation into an extended move and into long-term resistances or a sign of reversal for a larger move back to VA High. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Crude and Natural Gas up around 1.5%. Crude retesting 41 last week and rallying to retest 43.50 recent highs, Natural gas breaking above a range area and holding above 2.15 recent highs to reverse a major downtrend over the past years. Metals down with Silver down almost 7% and Gold down 3.5%. Volatility down 3.5%, continues to decrease as market grinds higher. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Financials with bonds lower ($TLT big drop) and Energy with strong Crude and Natural Gas. Sector Rotation into these beaten-down sectors. Industrials strong with airliners. Weak Sectors: Technology overbought and being sold off and Metals similar strong run with a larger pullback today. Things to Watch: $BA and airliners. Financial and Energy names like $C, $JPM, and $OXY weak with overall Energy strong. Weak Tech names like $AAPL having trouble moving outside of tight range 440/455.
  10. Friday - August 07, 2020 Futures Watch /ES has shown the 'Alternate Thesis' where we have moved well past the VA High 3285 and continued squeezing higher, leading to a rally and shorts covering. I marked 3337 as a possible target is this scenario, which we have achieved, so by normal conditions, we'd expect a slight pullback after achieving this target from 'afar'. However, because we're in this mode, we will continue to observe signs of continuation higher and more upside until we at least lose relevant areas like the high volume node around 3200. 10D 30M Chart /NQ also remains above the VA High 11020, finding support in yesterday's session at the prior highs and rallying away into 11280 for a strong trending session. Alternate Thesis states we may continue to see upside, but we are in a low volume area with support down at 11100. Be careful of low volume pockets below around 11500. 10D 30M Chart /RTY remains well above VA High around 1505 and building value around 1540. Because of the consolidation, we may see the VA Range move higher in the following sessions. Similar to the other markets, we remain in Alternate Thesis mode where we can continue higher, but a loss of this area around 1530 should lead to a steep decline through the volume pocket and back to the VA High area. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver had a steep pullback, but is remaining strong up 1%. Volatility up 1.6%, with the VIX elevated to 3%. Natural Gas also strong up 1.3%. Crude finding some buying volume near 41 support. Bonds flat. Dollar index support at 92.50 tested twice. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Normal strong sectors on daily if we bounce, but most sectors opening slightly lower, so no standouts. Weak Sectors: Home Builders/Real Estate down over 1%, along with Financials down .5%. Waiting to see how markets react overall and if we get a reversal. Things to Watch: $RKT - New IPO with high volume and good price action, strong in premarket. $SPY/$QQQ - We're strong overall, but moves such as these tend to end in exhaustion and a sharp decline. We can either squeeze higher (should be quick with shorts covering) or fall quickly (longs and hedging kicking in to bring us back to value).
  11. Wednesday - August 05, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to grind higher, well past the VA High 3260 and breaking to new recent highs overall. Note the volume has been declining in the past few sessions, so while we're in 'Alternate Thesis' mode where an unexpected move higher into a new range can lead to further price exploration and range expansion, we are in dangerous territory for a big move back down through the Volume Profile and into the high volume node around 3290. I also marked 3337 above from prior to the February crash; this was a breakout area that acted as resistance initially. Keep this as a possible target if we extend higher on a breakout short squeeze rally. 10D 30M Chart /NQ remains well above VA High 10900 area, with a high volume node around 11050 as an initial support zone. Also declining volume on prior sessions. Interesting, not as extended as the /ES, leading us to explore other sectors or areas that are driving the strength in that product. 10D 30M Chart /RTY above VA High 1495, extended into a prior resistance area 1540 from a few months ago. No major volume nodes below, so expect some resistance into 1540 and a steep pullback if rejected with VA High as the first target. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver up ~3.5%, continues to rally strongly along with Gold up 1.5%, very strong Materials/Metals Sectors. Crude up ~3.5%, leading to a very strong Energy sector along with recent Natural Gas strength, up .5%. Breaking above 41 and moving away may lead to our short squeeze thesis as it has acted as major resistance for multiple months. Volatility down 1.5%, also falling hard with a strong S&P Index. Extremes in multiple areas, so remain diligent in the case where we find a bottom and rip higher. Dollar Index falling back to support 92.5, I expect this to hold as it is a major support area and we are extended from a steep decline from 100. Bonds down, $TLT rejecting 172 resistance from prior volatility in March. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Energy and Financials, with Energy leading the charge. Also Home Builders up 1.6% and Metals up 1%. Weak Sectors: None, but Technology notably only up slightly, not the sector in charge. Things to Watch: Financials and Energy, looking for best candidates for all-day trends. $AAPL - Rejecting 443 twice in recent sessions, may offer good short. $SPY/$QQQ - Active!
  12. Tuesday - August 04, 2020 Futures Watch /ES moved slightly higher on Monday's session and hit a high of 3297 before seeing a large drop back to Sunday open prices. We're sitting within a volume pocket, so expectation is to test the VA High 3260 from above after failing to go much higher outside of the range. 10D 30M Chart /NQ saw lots of consolidation at previous highs near 11000/11100 before hitting a high of 11092 and falling back through the volume pocket. We still have some of the volume pocket to fill to retest VA High 10900. 10D 30M Chart /RTY had a stronger session higher on Monday, hitting a high of 1510 in aftermarket session before returning to test the VA High 1492. We're at a point where we can rally higher from here, but a return well into the VA Range would lead to the V POC 1480 as our next target. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Natural Gas started up 1.2% after a strong day yesterday (falling back to 2.1 support at time of writing), may level off near prior resistance 2.162. $KOLD and $BOIL vehicles to trade, along with $UNG. VIX up slightly 1%, holding 24 area consistently. Bonds bid slightly higher, US Dollar Index $DXY appears to have found a temporary bottom around 93. Oil down 1.8% on weak earnings, continues to have trouble breaking above 41 area from gap fill in March. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Home Builders and Real Estate up slightly, they continue to be up sectors when overall market is weak across the board. Also watching Financials with a tightening range in recent sessions. Weak Sectors: Most sectors starting lower, larger pullbacks on Technology and BioTech after yesterday strength. May need more information if they continue to be weak and other sectors are rotated into. Things to Watch: Natural Gas is volatile in early sessions, so $UNG and $KOLD/$BOIL. $MSFT lots of volume and weakest of big tech names.
  13. Monday - August 03, 2020 Futures Watch /ES closed strong last Friday into the close after selling off and reversing. Opening 3272 Sunday night. Pulling back to VA High 3250, we're starting the morning and the month higher well above the VA Range and hitting a high of 3286. Typically the Main Thesis is that price wants to revert to the Range above/below; however, given the amount of volume sitting slightly above the VA High, we can see a slight pullback and rally to build more value into a new area OR an all-out rally to exceed much higher from the beginning. 10D 30M Chart /NQ had an interesting dip and complete reversal into the VA Range and returning back to roughly 10900. We opened 10933.25 and are seeing as lightly rally higher this morning; however, we have a known strong resistance at 11000 where we've seeing major pullbacks in the past month. I'd be watching the reaction at the resistance to see if other major products can continue higher or if a similar reaction occurs. 10D 30M Chart /RTY seemed weaker on the reversal Friday and into the close, not able to recover the opening highs around 1490. Opening Sunday night 1479.2, we're coming into both Friday highs and VA High 1490, so some expectation of resistance is expected. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Natural Gas up over 6.5%, strong to break above 2.0. Levels 1.62 and 2.1 strong range, recently found support at 1.62 Yearly Support level. Volatility up slightly 1%, waiting for more information. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology up 1.2%, carried by major tech names continuation from Friday. Weak Sectors: None, but watching Financials with Bonds ($TLT) selling off slightly and a strong $SPY. Things to Watch: Banks if bonds get a selloff, hoping we have some correlation with a strong overall market. $UNG - Natural Gas play $ADT - Google to buy a 6.6% stake in ADT in home security push Big Tech - Carrying the markets higher, but also watching QQQ against 269.67 double top resistance.
  14. How to Calculate Value Area (VA) Determine the total volume traded in the profile (total buys and sells). 2 Take the number of total buys and sells and multiply it by .7 to determine what number is 70 percent of the total buys and sells. (70% is a typical example however any percentage can be used by the trader). Start at the POC (The row in the profile with the greatest total volume) and record its total volume number. The POC will be the first profile row added to the Value Area. Now look at the two rows above the POC (the initial value area) and add the total volume of both. Now look at the two rows beneath the POC (the initial value area) and add the total volume of both. Determine which of the total volume numbers is larger and add it to the total volume number of the POC found in step 3. Repeat steps 4 and 5 adding the larger of the two numbers to the Value Area. Once the total volume of your Value Area matches or slightly surpasses the number found in step 2, the Value Area has been determined. The highest row within the Value Area will be your Value Area High (VAH) and the lowest row within the Value Area will be your Value Area Low (VAL).
  15. Thursday - July 30, 2020 Futures Watch /ES big movement yesterday breaching the VA High 3245 and immediately falling back into the V POC 3225 which has been climbing slowly in recent trading sessions. I continue to hold Main Thesis that VA Low 3195 needs a test after multiple attempts to break out of Value Area Range. 10D 30M Chart /NQ lackluster move higher into a Volume Pocket and quickly back down to V POC 10600, a test of VA Low 10395 Main Thesis given no new highs in recent sessions. 10D 30M Chart /RTY breach of VA High 1490 and rejection at 1500 back to V POC 1480. Similar structure to /ES, I'd be looking for a test of VA Low 1465 multiple support area. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver down 4.5%, lots of volatility during Federal Reserve Meetings and now gapping lower. Energy Futures (Oil, Natural Gas) down 1.5%, weak Energy Sector. Volatility Futures up 5%, VIX up 9%, lots of buying in volatility today. Bonds are up and $TLT breaking 170 resistance and getting bought higher in premarket. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: None, a few flat sectors (Metals and Communications), but no volume as well. Weak Sectors: Financials down almost 2% due to bond yields falling lower. Energy down 1.5% weakness in commodities and Financial Weakness correlation. Multple sectors correlated with weak Index ETFs, Technology/QQQ down 1%, SPY/Utilities and Cons. Disc. down 1.2% Things to Watch: Silver ($SLV) Volatility Products ($VXX / $UVXY) Short Candidates ($BA Continuation, Banks like $C and $MS)
  16. Tuesday - July 28, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to consolidate within the VA High and Low Range. We tried to climb through the volume pocket above and fell back to balance, so this may dictate a test of the VA Low 3190. Keeping an eye on range of V POC 3214 and 3231 level from previous resistance and breakout areas. 10D 30M Chart /NQ passed through VA Range and tested VA High 10755 area before falling back to V POC 10595. We can either find support for another move to and outside the VA High similar to last week or a move through the range to test VA Low 10400 area. 10D 30M Chart /RTY continues to stay within now lower VA High 1490 and V POC 1465. A move away from VPOC lower has poor volume structure below and may lead to a quick selloff, but above VPOC we simply target VA High again. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver down over 2% after reaching 26.25 highs, may settle down after US dollar Index appears to have settled. Natural Gas up over 2.5% and holding 1.62 level well, targeting prior pivot high. VIX Index up around 3%, continues to find support at 24 area and possible breakout above 28.50 or breakdown below 23.50. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Not much starting the day strong, so watching overall strong sectors Tech and Health Care. Weak Sectors: Metals down 2.5% after Gold and Silver showing topping action, other sectors flat to correlated with SPY, so no interest. Things to Watch: Earnings Plays: $PFE, $MO, and $MCD $SLV - Nice PM range after losing highs. $TSM - Selling off after major rally yesterday.
  17. Monday - July 27, 2020 Futures Watch /ES opening at 3210.75 and tested 3192 lows before reversing back to V POC 3215 area. We have a Volume Pocket above to get us back to 3260 VA High if we get a rally this week. 10D 30M Chart /NQ opened 10490 and tested 10412 before reversing back to V POC 10590 area. We have a Volume Pocket above to get us back to 10825 VA High if we get a rally this week. 10D 30M Chart /RTY opened at 1466.4 and tested 1456.2 before reversing back to V POC 1465 area. Structure below VA Low 1455 is poor for a drop back to 1440 range support on higher timeframes. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver Futures up over 6% after rallying strong over recent weeks. Nearing 25.12 Monthly Pivot but has plenty of room to continue running higher. Gold Futures up 1.6%, breaking ATH 1932 and future expiry contracts showing continued strength in the future months. VIX Index up 2% with Volatility Futures down 1.7%, watching VIX lows around 24 to hold or break down if a rally can't get going. Natural Gas down 1.1%, slight pullback from retesting Yearly lows support at 1.62. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Metals up 1.1% with strong gold and silver markets. Technology and BioTechnology up .7%, not overtly strong but strong Semiconductors ($SMH 1.8%) and general rebound from last week in QQQ. Weak Sectors: Nothing weak, Financials down slightly on the premarket. Things to Watch: Semiconductors, seems as if lots of rebalancing is occurring leading to nice volatility. We have $INTC last week's earnings surprise and drop, $AMD strong rally, and $TSM ATH gapping higher on news with Intel Production. $AAPL Active and strong gap from Friday bounce. Watching Gold Miner Leveraged ETFs ($NUGT / $JNUG) and Silver $SLV.
  18. Wednesday - July 22, 2020 Futures Watch /ES volatile aftermarket session, I have the recent highs marked from 06/08 and recent 07/15 Resistance, a breakout that occurred 07/20, and a retest that occurred last night. I'd be looking for general Technical Rules where we continue higher on a retracement to Resistance turned Support; a break lower would be an Alternate Thesis and we have room back to V POC (3211 Gravity Point). 10D 30M Chart /NQ continues to be quite volatile anywhere above the VA High 10760. You can see the quick return to our Profile Range last Monday 07/13, consolidation over last week, and a violent move higher (algo driven) back to retest the highs almost to the exact mark. We seem to be finding support against VA HIgh this morning, so we also have a Resistance turned Support to watch for our main thesis, Alternate Thesis back into Volume Profile Range. 10D 30M Chart /RTY broke higher from our previous Monday consolidation and previous VA High 1460 into the 1460/1500 range. We've fallen back to V POC 1460 area, so I'm seeing if this acts as support or if we have a quick move down to VA Low 1410 due to the lack of Volume and a Major Pocket. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver remains very strong up 6% after multiple strong days prior. Volume Profile shows we are due for a pullback, but we haven't seen any signs yet of a pullback to VA High around 20.25. Volatile overnight session. Volatility up 1.1% and worth mentioning in a slight gap down on other Index Futures. Crude and Natural Gas both down 1.5%. Crude pulling back to major level 41, expect Resistance turned Support until it doesn't happen. NAtural Gas holding 1.62 well multiple tests and Yearly Lows that were broken recently, but we moved back inside past weeks. I also expect a bounce here over next few days. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology and Health Care also up slightly around .5%. Weak Sectors: Mixed bag, but Energy is down 1.1% after a strong day yesterday, may be a resting day before another big move higher. Financials down .6% as well, so slight correlation. Things to Watch: $BLNK - Breakout on Daily above 6.5, we have room to test 8.5 Daily Resistance and above will be 9.2 and 15 on Weekly. Blink Charging Wins Grant To Deploy 200 Blink Fast Level 2 - 19.2 kW Charging Stations Across Mid-Atlantic Region, No Terms Disclosed $SNAP - Earnings $SLV or $PAAS - Silver possible move higher or Reversal.
  19. I'd have to look into that more, I'll try to post what I'm seeing in my PM notes and active trading, but having a small list of good candidates is always helpful (S&P 100/Nasdaq 100, knowing what areas are strong).
  20. Looking at Crude Futures gave me the first inclination that Energy might be strong. 41/barrel was a major resistance for Crude, so a significant breakout above was unexpected and a new price level to explore for the Bulls. Combining with other ideas that I have gathered where Financials were also strong (and they correlate), $XLE up on the morning session, and $OXY having a great daily chart for a Trend Day, I focused on that and a few others in the sector to look for a trade.
  21. Monday - July 20, 2020 NOTES: I removed the Trend Day moving averages given we're evaluating Volume Profile only. I have Extended Hours (Premarket and Aftermarket) highlighted for clarity. Futures Watch /ES opened Sunday night roughly the same level as Friday close, then pulled back overnight to consolidate near the VA HIgh of 3200. Given the amount of balance we're building in last week's three-day range, approx. 3230/3105, I'd be looking for a break away from this range to get a better sense of directionality. Until then, a move through the Range to retest the lows may be likely before a change of balance. 10D 30M Chart /NQ continues to consolidate in a tightening range (wedge) after the Monday Rounded Reversa; day from the highs. I'd be looking for a departure away from the Range and a break of Wednesday highs and Tuesday lows 10760/10360. 10D 30M Chart /RTY consolidating above VA HIgh 1460 and building additional balance higher. I'd be looking for a move above 1480 to begin exploring higher prices up to 1540 and having balance below. Daily Chart looks ready for a breakout. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver Futures up 1.5%, breaking yearly high levels and looking to come to test 5Y Highs around 21.25. Natural Gas down 1.5%, continues to pull back from the move from 1.44 to 1.925, may settle around a healthy 50% and find support for a move higher. I'm looking at the breakdown in 01/16/2020 and the prior support 2.083 as a range that we appear to be bound by over the past six months. Volatility Futures down 2%, with VIX up slightly .7%. These levels have been support in the past, so we would expect some reactions short term before breaking down or rallying from the 24.8 levels again as we did in early June. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: I'll be looking at Technology with some major names reporting this week ($MSFT, $TSLA, $INTC) and the QQQ up today as the strongest index. Healthcare and BioTechnology also are opening in ATH range on the Sector ETFs, so reviewing these names should provide some strong candidates. Weak Sectors: Financials are still lagging after last week's earnings, opening close to last week's Monday open. Metals are showing strength in futures, but Sector ETF appears to be caught in a large wedge on the daily, so be looking for a breakout in the coming days with 22.50 breakout area above. Things to Watch: $BABA - Daily Retracement and breakout this morning, good volume and gap up. $PFE/$MRNA - Both moving with catalyst on $PFE and $BNTX Pfizer, BioNTech Announce Early Positive Update From German Phase 1/2 Coronavirus Vaccine Study $NIO - Oversold bounce with gap support below.
  22. Friday - July 17, 2020 Futures Watch /ES remaining above VA High 3188 and building value, looking for a pullback to V POC 3160 given extended move above range and not having tested value area. Alternative Thesis would lead to a strong breakout above the recent highs and exploring prices above 3230. 10D 30M Chart /NQ completed a full cycle above VA High 10750 and a major selloff to the VA Low 10500. Recent sessions have been range bound between the two areas with yesterday selling off right into VA Low again. May continue to be bound, but any catalyst along Tech Earnings may break things apart. 10D 30M Chart /RTY moved above the range is prior two sessions and remains above while building value. Although we often look for a return to the VA High 1450 or V POC 1415, the Alternate Thesis remains for a continual move higher and a potential for a Trend higher if we remain well above the range. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Volatility Futures down 2.5%, lows from past week being broken, I'm noting this as important given the alternate thesis ideas on the major indexes. Bond Futures aren't up much, but $TLT remains elevated after the breakout last week. Somewhat conflicting areas of interest with the market being 'on the edge' in a lot of areas. Oddly, the futures are inverted from the Index ETFs, with /NQ strongest. Not sure the reason. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology slightly higher and above yesterday's trading range, so expecting some strength into next Volume Area around 107.5. Home Builders and Materials have some potential to break out given daily chart. Semis are also primed for a breakout. Weak Sectors: Real Estate lower than yesterday's range. Things to Watch: $NFLX - Earnings, watch 480 multiple confirmations of level and 490 TFL.
  23. Moved to a new topic to avoid losing it in the Premarket Notes. Once the Webinar is up, I'll link slides and more information here along with how to scan/detect trend days in formation.
  24. Thursday - July 16, 2020 Futures Watch /ES 10D 30M Chart /NQ 10D 30M Chart /RTY 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Elevated /VX and slightly higher suggests caution Natural Gas and Oil down over 1% Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Weak Sectors: Things to Watch: $JNJ - Channel breakout past few days, may pull back and continue higher above 150. $TWTR - Issues with Security. $IWM - Futures show possible breakout of return to VA High.
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