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JaradBBT last won the day on September 9 2020

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  1. Ha, now I can focus on relaxing the next day!
  2. Where can I access your previous Sector Rotation and Options Reviews?

  3. My fiancée and I will be in attendance. Looking forward to meeting you all!
  4. That is true, given these are both Deep ITM, their Bid/Ask prices should be close to the Intrinsic Value. One thing I notice is the Delta for the 2 Strikes is .12, but I think this is the platform rounding to the nearest whole number while also not exceeding a True Delta of 1 (the Adjusted Price Series has a Delta of .12, so .12 * 8 = .96). Otherwise, there may simply be price adjustments due to Open Interest, as the 16 Strike has very little and the 12/100 Adjusted Series has quite a bit more. I'll check again at market open to see if I spot anything, but I recommend taking the price of the product minus the Mid Price of the 16 Strike to see if it's close to 16; that would mean the contract is tracking USO price 1:1.
  5. Pierce and Fail - Trade Book (Work In Progress) Description: Pierce and Fail is a Trend Reversal Setup characterized by a Breakout through a Major Level of Support/Resistance with High Relative Volume, followed by a change in Sentiment and Momentum back through the Level as the Trend Inventory is Exhausted and must return to Value Areas to gain new inventory. Purpose: Reversal Strategy to use both as a Aggressive Scalp Trade with strong Risk/Reward (R/R) along with potential to Trend against initial entry. Using Volume Signals to help justify Entry and Stop Loss Area compared to arbitrary concepts that are not definite. Clear Risk/Reward; Quick Trade with Potential for Large Reversal. Observation: Kept observing stocks start by forming a Morning Range; once Range was broken (and retested), stocks tend to go in search of value. Stocks that have Higher Time Frame Trends and/or Ranges may have Intraday Transitions to Levels that provide signals for Reversal Strategies with a high R/R Probability. Concepts: Levels - Support and Resistance, Areas of High Interest based on prior Price Action Ex. Daily Levels (HOD/LOD), Inflection Pivots, Premarket High/Low, Whole Numbers, etc Ranges Support and Resistance Zones defined by Price Action moving between each Zone Transitions Moving from one Range to another, defined by a Low Volume Zone between Ranges Time Frame: 30 Minutes after Market Open until One Hour Before Market Close Indicators: Extended from 9 EMA on 5 Minute Chart High Volume Event(s) at Major Level Breakout is not sustained, Level 2 and Time and Sales shows Opposite Sentiment Confirmations: Reversal Candles on Smaller Time Frames Engulfing Pin Bar Wide Range/Resting/Pierce and Fail (Name Pending) Entry Signal: Price moves through Level on High Volume Sets a High/Low of that Breakout Returns through the Level (Level 2 and Time and Sales are showing Opposite Momentum to Trend) Entry at Level Stop Loss: Slightly beyond Breakout Price to avoid getting 'tagged' Target: Depends on Trade Management Moving Averages R Targets Pivots Avoid: High Volume Events that occur through Intraday Levels on Larger Time Frames Leads to Trend Continuation against the Reversal Setup Averaging Down if Price Breaks Below Stop Loss on Volume Sizing into a larger position once a second shakeout candle forms is acceptable, but be wary that if Price goes through the initial Stop Loss without returning to above the prior, the trend can continue against you quickly
  6. Thanks for the question traderforever. Just like using the shares of a stock as a tool to capture directional price movement, you can use Options as a tool to achieve the same result. Most trending strategies use options very well, as you typically have a defined area to stop out (usually a loss of morning support or some key level) along with good leverage in the position to capture a larger piece of the move. Quicker reversal or scalp strategies also work with options as long as certain factors are considered. Knowing how to use options requires knowing how to day trade along with understanding when to use and when NOT to use options for a directional play. A trader without large capital may think trading higher priced stocks using options is inherently less risky, yet if they can't afford to hold 100 shares of the stock (or even the appropriate Delta share size), then they may lose more than expected on quick movements and large Bid/Ask Spread sin the Option Markets. Short answer: Yes, there are similarities esp. with setups and strategies, but there are some key differences as well.
  7. Wednesday - September 09, 2020 Index Futures Watch /ES is beginning to show potential for bottoming, as we have moved outside our VA Low around 3380 and are gapping slightly above yesterday's low, which was near the low of the session. We expect some movement back into the VA Range, with 3500 as our V POC and high-end target for a bounce. 10D 30M Chart /NQ extended further below the VA Low 11555 and saw a potential low of 10935 on yesterday's AM session. Out short term target for a bounce is the VA Low, which coincides with recent lower highs before yesterday's selloff. We're seeing a larger gap up in the current PM session, which may lead to a larger move higher. 10D 30M Chart /RTY looks overall similar to /NQ, with more volume placed at V POC 1565 and less 'peaks' of volume near the VA High/Low. Short-term target is VA Low 1535 and 1550 recent lower highs. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Markets: Natural Gas up 3%, strong off the PM lows at 2.34 and possible trend continuation. Crude Oil up 1.7% finding some support around 36 and sitting at 37.5, may be a small bounce attempt on a larger selloff. Volatility and $VIX down 3.5% roughly, market bounce and possible reduction in downside hedging may lead to volatility reduction throughout the session. Dollar Index appears to have found a V bottom support around 91.75, starting to clear recent lower highs, but dollar weakness can lead to market strength. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Things to Watch: $OSTK (Strong Tech and 'Risk On' Day can lead to more volatile names moving 'faster' than others). $SPCE (Good volume and Gap Up, trying to get over yesterday's high and BIG Engulfing pattern last two days). $AAPL, $TSLA, and mostly Tech Sector for larger bounces.
  8. Monday - August 31, 2020 Index Futures Watch /ES opened Sunday night at 3508.5 and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 3524.5. We remain well above the VA Range and VA High 3467. Above I have marked a longer-term trendline with range expansion occurring over multiple years; I expect this to hold as resistance over the next week for at least a short-term pullback into normal price targets, such as 3400 support and 3380 V POC. 10D 30M Chart 5Y 1D Chart /NQ opened Sunday night at 12002.75 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 12091.75. The VA range is wide, with our V POC 11965 sitting within grasp. We would need to lose this area for a volume pocket to open below us, leading to roughly 11830 Support from 08/27 Thursday's session and 17000 as our target if we fall through (08/24 Session High and area of volume). We are well above our main trendline on longer timeframes and can be overdue for a larger pullback on market weakness. 10D 30M Chart 1Y 1D Chart /RTY opened Sunday night at 1576.9 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 1589.8. We're pulling back right to VA High 1578, with a healthy short-term uptrend after breakout out of last week's retracement. Our short-term target remains the recent high around 1605 and 1610 previous support turned resistance before the crash. 10D 30M Chart 1Y 1D Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Markets: Natural Gas down 3%, a lovely extension into a gap fill on the daily and pulling back. Market remains strong and simply needs a pullback. Dollar Index $DXY hanging right at support 92 area, continues to remain very weak with a shallow bounce at support on prior weeks. Bonds down slightly, watching $TLT for a bounce play into an extended selloff last Thursday. Crude up .7%, remains tightly range bound between 41.5 and 43.5, but building higher lows and attempting to break out of the range on a confirmation breakout or fail and breakdown. Silver up 1.5% vs Gold flat, getting above 28.5 in Silver would be a nice confirmation that this tightening range from 24/30 is trying to continue higher after a large consolidation. Volatility Futures up slightly, with the $VIX elevated 7.7%; we continue to see larger market participants starting to buy volatility and possible risk in the markets coming up soon. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Volume light this morning, so false readings are possible. Using Daily Charts for general ideas. $XBI BioTech nice support forming at prior breakout area, slight gap up and possible confirmation of retracement breakout. $XHB Home Builders strong uptrend, slight pullback last week into gap up and possible next leg higher. $XLB Materials ATH remains strong. $XLC ATH, gap up may just be misprint, but strong extension last week. $XLE Energy Trying to hold prior support around 36 and break out of larger retracement pullback from 39.50 bounce. $XLF Financials at 200 SMA on Daily, rejecting in PM. $XLI Industrials, trying to break out of smaller Handle and extend into higher ranges, currently rejecting in PM. $XLK Technology, remains strong overall, but may be too extended to continue holding markets higher. $XLP Cons. Staples, ATH, strong uptrend. $XLRE Trying to clear recent 36.8 highs, higher lows formed into tightening ranges. $XLU Weak overall, trying to hold 58.50 support area from early July and last week lows. $XLV ATH, having trouble extending well above current range, choppy action. $XLY Cons. Disc. Strong uptrend, remains elevated and continuing higher. $XME Metals holding support and trying to clear 25 area which is major resistance from last year multiple tests. Things to Watch: $AAPL/$TSLA - Stock Split insanity. $NIO/$WKHS - High volume volatile names in EV/ICE Replacement sector Volatility Products - Elevated VIX and Market can be primed for a large drop.
  9. Friday - August 28, 2020 Index Futures Watch /ES remains strong, having broken out of 3450 on Wednesday and rallying strongly in a Trend Day. Yesterday session was volatile and well-defined in various ranges, with the daily range between 3500 and 3465. We have the 3500 area to consider today, as potential resistance even though we've explored prices above in Premarket. Anything above yesterday's range will continue the trend and bring us farther into an extended move away from the VA Range (not in play due to how far away it currently lies). A drop leads to more volatile action, given we don't have enough value to support. 10D 30M Chart /NQ had similar price action, with a strong Trend Day on Wednesday and a volatile Range Day yesterday; however we continue to make higher highs/higher lows. The VA High sits right at the ATH yesterday of 12040 and we are at V POC 11940; a loss of yesterday's low will bring us into a volume pocket back to 11650 area of support, but if we break above yesterday's high, a similar move to Wednesday's breakout can occur. 10D 30M Chart /RTY shows a disconnect from the other two indexes, having a weak session Wednesday and a wide Range Day yesterday. We are right at VA HIgh 1580 and slightly above yesterday's high, so we will look to higher time frames to see that we're trying to 'break out' above 1590 recent pivot high. If we do, a strong rally back to recent 1605 highs can occur quickly through low volume resistance above. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Volatility up 1.4%, we're seeing volatility get bought yesterday even during periods of uptrending markets. Professionals are starting to hedge at these elevated levels. Silver up 1.7%, still trying to hold up after the large drop earlier this month, currently breaking higher from a retracement with roughly 28 as support. Gold up 1.5%, breaking higher after 1925 area holding multiple times as support in this week's sessions. This was previous ATH before the huge breakout last month. Other products up slightly, watching bonds after a huge drop on $TLT yesterday around the Fed speech updates. This is also seen with a weak Dollar $DXY currently at 92.5 support. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Interesting correlation, most sectors are up around .3-.7%. Bonds selling off yesterday led to Financials being strong, so seeing how they respond today. Weak Sectors: None this morning, just normal 'Underperforming' Sectors overall YTD. Things to Watch: Watchlist: Cruises, Financials (Weak Bonds yesterday), $NIO. Secondary: $TSLA (Split Next Week)
  10. Wednesday - August 26, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to remain pegged in this area around 3440/3450 from yesterday's premarket. Price action from yesterday shows that 3430 is willing to be defended, as we pushed into that area and fully recovered once we couldn't go lower. Any action above the current range could lead to another Alternate Thesis move higher, but a second attempt to break yesterday's range may place us into the 3415 volume node for a while to consolidate. 10D 30M Chart /NQ building value near 11600 area during yesterday's session, leading to the VA Range coming higher as the Equilibrium Price is shifting higher. We continue to stay above the VA High 11580 and can continue higher given we have good support below us. 10D 30M Chart /RTY fell away from V POC and into the VA Low in yesterday's session, with a slight recovery into the afternoon. As we are in the VA Range and below the V POC, I'd be looking for VA Low 1560 to hold as support for an attempt back to retest VA HIgh 1585. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Natural Gas up 1.5%, back into 2.55 resistance tested multiple times over past few days. A breakout may be led by a sharp rally higher, so watching for breakout or another rejection. Other futures not showing much in terms of price and areas of interest. Bonds slightly down, Crude slightly down from 43.5 resistance, Gold seems weak losing 1925 area of support after slipping over multiple days from the 2025 highs. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology starting strong with some earnings beats and most major names up roughly 1%. Semiconductors are also holding up some strength. Cons. Disc. showing strength and on the verge of an ATH breakout. Weak Sectors: Utilities losing all of Monday's price action along with Energy and Financials never getting off the ground. Industials holding up a potential Cup and Handle on the Daily, but need to clear 78.50. Things to Watch: Yesterday, strong sectors like Financials and Industrials were sold off and rotated into Technology and Communications, so be wary of another occurrence of a 'bait-and-switch' on strong turning weak and vice versa. $CRM: Earnings $SRNE: Oversold Bounce (Morning Star Pattern on Daily) into Gap Up $TSLA: Remains Strong
  11. Tuesday - August 25, 2020 Futures Watch /ES has reached new ATHs yesterday and is clearly breaking out into new territory. From a Volume Profile perspective, we would expect there to be low Volume Nodes in this range; this can be seen with the VA High 3390 far below and yesterday's tight range forming our first are of support around 3420. We can clear volume pockets below us, so we will be aware that the trend is on 'shaky ground' until the VA Range can move higher; any signs of a selloff will likely be quick through these voids is volume. 10D 30M Chart /NQ above the VA Range, shows signs of weakness yesterday, selling off quickly in the morning session to Friday's morning range around 11550 before getting bid higher into the afternoon. Currently the pre-market is having difficulty moving higher compared to /ES, so I'd be watching this for continued weakness paired with Sector Rotation concepts. VA High 11450 would be our first main target risking yesterday's high. 10D 30M Chart /RTY showing that 1608 and 1540 were indeed resistance/support for our Range Definition. We are sitting right at the V POC 1580, but our main structure is showing relative strength with our minor downtrend breaking out into the premarket. A healthy pullback near VA Low 1560 or above near 1570 prior neckline of past three sessions would be a nice area to consider building a position for a retest of 1605 recent highs. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Crude and Natural Gas up around .75%, Crude has been 'choppy' in recent sessions, staying tight between 41.5 and 43.5, but we had a strong reaction last Friday session off of 41.5 and we're moving strongly into the open and into 43. Natural Gas remains strong after breaking away from 2.15 and retesting 2.1 on 8/12. Since that range breakout, we haven't looked back. Bonds down with $TLT gapping down 1% and confirming a Bear Flag pattern on the daily. Gold and Silver seem to be moving on low volume, so we may see a breakout in some direction soon, but lack of interest at this time. Dollar Index held our Yearly Low 92.5 well and appears to be slowly climbing back up. Anything between 92 and 94 would be trapped between Horizontal Support and Trend Line Resistance on higher time frames. Liking Energy to have Relative Strength, Financials strong with Bond weakness. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Financials and Industrials gaining strength in Premarket. Also Energy getting stronger with Oil showing lots of strength in the Futures. Materials and Cons. Staples at ATH. Weak Sectors: Technology flat, so relatively weak compared to other areas. Things to Watch: $BA - Major breakout yesterday into a gap up, continuation to test the 190 range highs. $AAPL - Volatile and may drag the $QQQ down if it loses 500, $SPY will react as well having trouble getting off the ground unless all sectors align. $OXY/$SLB - Decent Energy candidates, focused on Oil names.
  12. Thursday - August 13, 2020 Futures Watch /ES has been steadily building value in the upper range of recent sessions such that the 10D 30M Volume Profile has moved; currently, the recent highs are now the new VA High 3380. Due to the fact we are in the VA Range and have touched the VA High, our Main Thesis is a pullback to test the V POC 3320, around the lows of Tuesday's session. If we break above VA High, we will begin a new round of 'Alternate Thesis' where we should return to the range, but may continue higher and causing additional trending days. 10D 30M Chart /NQ has remained inside the new VA Range 10875 to 11180, consolidating around V POC 11100 and currently testing VA High. A break above the range will target recent highs around 11280, or conservatively 11250 with a higher volume node as a target. Otherwise, we'll look to return to V POC on a pullback. 10D 30M Chart /RTY has a wide VA Range with numerous volume 'pockets' below; ideally staying near V POC 1585 can lead to moves higher to recent highs and VA High 1605; however, we're currently below and have some risk to reject V POC for moves lower to different volume nodes (1560, 1540, and VA Low 1500). 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver up 2.5% after a large selloff Tuesday and bounce around 23.50, target 27.50 on bounce as it provided support during the rally. Watching Gold, but currently tight consolidation and trying to hold 1920 area after a similar bounce as silver. Watching Natural Gas, Gas Report out at 10:30 ET Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology and BioTech up after strong days yesterday, continuation may occur and hold up QQQ Weak Sectors: Financials down again after starting strong yesterday and selling off most of the day. Other sectors starting slightly lower. Things to Watch: SECTOR ROTATION - Keeps occurring where usually One/Two sectors are strong while One/Two are weak. Usually a back and forth between Technology, Financials/Energy, and Health Care With Financials earlier this week, Technology and Health Care yesterday, and now we'll see which one matters or if they all are range-bound, leading to a choppy market. Watching: $AAPL, $RVLV, $SRNE, $FAT (Low Float) Secondary: $SLV, Natural Gas after Gas Report at 10:30 ET
  13. Tuesday - August 11, 2020 Futures Watch /ES continues to be in 'Alternate Thesis' where we have moved well past the VA High now higher at 3320 and continuing to squeeze higher, leading to a rally and shorts covering. I marked 3337 as a possible target is this scenario, which we have achieved, broke through, and retested as support on yesterday's session. We have good volume support below near 3350, so we would need to lose or gap below this area to consider VA High as a target below; the current thoughts are we will continue to go higher until we have a clear reversal signal/day. 10D 30M Chart /NQ has moved the VA Range into the current range, testing the VA High 11275 highs on Friday before falling back into V POC around 11050 at the time. Yesterday we did try to lose the marked support, yet we closed slightly above and moved higher until this Premarket session, where we quickly fell right back to this area. Larger structure is showing weakness in this area, as rotation is occuring in the overall markets. 10D 30M Chart /RTY is moving strongly off of a test of 1540 support and current VA High. Alternate Thesis is in play; however, volume structure below is less supportive if a resistance and selloff were to occur. We will look for continuation into an extended move and into long-term resistances or a sign of reversal for a larger move back to VA High. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Crude and Natural Gas up around 1.5%. Crude retesting 41 last week and rallying to retest 43.50 recent highs, Natural gas breaking above a range area and holding above 2.15 recent highs to reverse a major downtrend over the past years. Metals down with Silver down almost 7% and Gold down 3.5%. Volatility down 3.5%, continues to decrease as market grinds higher. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Financials with bonds lower ($TLT big drop) and Energy with strong Crude and Natural Gas. Sector Rotation into these beaten-down sectors. Industrials strong with airliners. Weak Sectors: Technology overbought and being sold off and Metals similar strong run with a larger pullback today. Things to Watch: $BA and airliners. Financial and Energy names like $C, $JPM, and $OXY weak with overall Energy strong. Weak Tech names like $AAPL having trouble moving outside of tight range 440/455.
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