Monday - August 31, 2020
Index Futures Watch
/ES opened Sunday night at 3508.5 and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 3524.5. We remain well above the VA Range and VA High 3467. Above I have marked a longer-term trendline with range expansion occurring over multiple years; I expect this to hold as resistance over the next week for at least a short-term pullback into normal price targets, such as 3400 support and 3380 V POC.
10D 30M Chart
5Y 1D Chart
/NQ opened Sunday night at 12002.75 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 12091.75. The VA range is wide, with our V POC 11965 sitting within grasp. We would need to lose this area for a volume pocket to open below us, leading to roughly 11830 Support from 08/27 Thursday's session and 17000 as our target if we fall through (08/24 Session High and area of volume). We are well above our main trendline on longer timeframes and can be overdue for a larger pullback on market weakness.
10D 30M Chart
1Y 1D Chart
/RTY opened Sunday night at 1576.9 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 1589.8. We're pulling back right to VA High 1578, with a healthy short-term uptrend after breakout out of last week's retracement. Our short-term target remains the recent high around 1605 and 1610 previous support turned resistance before the crash.
10D 30M Chart
1Y 1D Chart
Premarket Review at 9:00 ET
Interesting Markets:
Natural Gas down 3%, a lovely extension into a gap fill on the daily and pulling back. Market remains strong and simply needs a pullback.
Dollar Index $DXY hanging right at support 92 area, continues to remain very weak with a shallow bounce at support on prior weeks.
Bonds down slightly, watching $TLT for a bounce play into an extended selloff last Thursday.
Crude up .7%, remains tightly range bound between 41.5 and 43.5, but building higher lows and attempting to break out of the range on a confirmation breakout or fail and breakdown.
Silver up 1.5% vs Gold flat, getting above 28.5 in Silver would be a nice confirmation that this tightening range from 24/30 is trying to continue higher after a large consolidation.
Volatility Futures up slightly, with the $VIX elevated 7.7%; we continue to see larger market participants starting to buy volatility and possible risk in the markets coming up soon.
Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET
Volume light this morning, so false readings are possible. Using Daily Charts for general ideas.
$XBI BioTech nice support forming at prior breakout area, slight gap up and possible confirmation of retracement breakout.
$XHB Home Builders strong uptrend, slight pullback last week into gap up and possible next leg higher.
$XLB Materials ATH remains strong.
$XLC ATH, gap up may just be misprint, but strong extension last week.
$XLE Energy Trying to hold prior support around 36 and break out of larger retracement pullback from 39.50 bounce.
$XLF Financials at 200 SMA on Daily, rejecting in PM.
$XLI Industrials, trying to break out of smaller Handle and extend into higher ranges, currently rejecting in PM.
$XLK Technology, remains strong overall, but may be too extended to continue holding markets higher.
$XLP Cons. Staples, ATH, strong uptrend.
$XLRE Trying to clear recent 36.8 highs, higher lows formed into tightening ranges.
$XLU Weak overall, trying to hold 58.50 support area from early July and last week lows.
$XLV ATH, having trouble extending well above current range, choppy action.
$XLY Cons. Disc. Strong uptrend, remains elevated and continuing higher.
$XME Metals holding support and trying to clear 25 area which is major resistance from last year multiple tests.
Things to Watch:
$AAPL/$TSLA - Stock Split insanity.
$NIO/$WKHS - High volume volatile names in EV/ICE Replacement sector
Volatility Products - Elevated VIX and Market can be primed for a large drop.