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Martin D

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Everything posted by Martin D

  1. I don't know/didn't see the discussion. What does the DAS chart look like around that close period? I've looked at the futures charts I have access to and it didn't trade near that price at the close (no prints there). I assume it can only be some kind of rouge (delayed) print like DAS does sometimes that screws up the charts or a close time issue. I can't see how else it would be so far away from price. Is the DAS R4 figure a typo though? just the close price wouldn't cause that kind of variation. I have a file that calculates a number of levels to look for confluence areas as part of my watchlist, it agrees with numbers you've given for IB etc but if I only replace the close price you've given for DAS I get $4037.54 so is the High/Low also off?
  2. When you say the correct number of shares what are you expecting it to do? I think this hotkey is based off a % of your buying power amount. I'm not sure exactly how it would work without testing (and I don't use DAS anymore so can't) but if you were in more than one position at a time then it may be taking that into account in your buying power so for each additional position you may be getting less shares I don't think this is the hotkey where you need to click on the chart (like a lot of people here use) and it also doesn't look like it has the STOP order part on it so what you're using isn't designed to do that. If you can explain exactly what it is you want to do I may be able to help point to the closest Kyle hotkey
  3. Hi, most people here use DAS, including Carlos (I used to but don't anymore). If I was choosing one or the other then I'd choose DAS but Bookmap complicated matters for me. It depends what kind of trading you're doing, if you're a scalper like Andrew then DAS is better. The executions are better so those split seconds count as you're entering at the point of the market where you often expect it to go immediately. This is what DAS is going for, quick executions. IMO the executions in TWS are fine if you're looking for more point to point moves but aren't as quick as DAS. In terms of charting TWS is missing some features that DAS has that people here use such as highlighting bigger orders on Level 2. However, this isn't a strength of DAS either vs other providers (as I mentioned their focus is execution speed) for example things like volume profile is incorrect in DAS because they use a less data intensive method for the benefit of speed rather than do it accurately (I asked them to do it properly but they refused and said they don't intend to fix it). Therefore depending on what you're using you may be fine or you may have issues with charting (with both) which is obviously a difficult question to answer for a newer trader. DAS has replay which is also helpful for a new trader but BBT now has a free replay on trading terminal so it's not as big an issue now vs when I started. DAS hotkeys are more customizable, things like fixed risk hotkeys are missing in TWS. So DAS has the edge throughout but the reason I went to TWS from DAS is Bookmap, imo it helps tremendously read Time & Sales and Level 2 and my decisions as a result are much quicker (far outweighing the benefit of DAS execution speed for me, also should point out DAS was around 200-250ms delay for me vs I think 50-100ms for some NA traders because I'm based in Australia), many members here use bookmap. It's lacking education content in BBT at the moment (but I believe is coming) because Thor is the only mod who uses it and has just started. I'm using bookmap to chart in the shorter timeframe and make decisions. DAS therefore became a $200 a month (stocks and futures) platform just for execution and I don't see the value for the type of trading I do (not scalping). I only use TWS for a little bit of charting and execution really, I won't necessarily continue executing in TWS as it doesn't give me everything I want but doubt it would be DAS either. As I said most people here use DAS so I will say my opinion isn't the consensus opinion.
  4. It can be representative of everything except how you react when real money is on the line. Most people will react in some kind of way and so then it becomes difficult to gather accurate stats on your strategy which then spirals as you struggle to find your strategy issue without accurate data and your psychology issues about money make you do things because you doubt your strategy more and more as you lose and have no inner belief that it works because you don't have the data backing it up. If you deal with everything except the money aspect in SIM then at least you have the crutch of knowing the only thing stopping you is money psychology issues, if you don't then you'll be dealing with a wave of issues that all overlap and you'll struggle to dissect what the problem is. Speaking as someone who had patience issues, are you treating SIM like a game for learning (you don't need to take a trade to watch how the market moves) or because you're impatient waiting for your setup? If you're trading really small size (with a goal of only $250) then it's still a game to most, couple of dollars here or there who cares? (unless you're in such money situation that you need it which presents it's own issues), if you go higher then you have the issues I mentioned above. Trying different setups in SIM is fine, like maybe your trying Thor's pivots and Aiman's reversals and John' HOD etc to see what you like best. Those are genuine setups you can gather data on, if you're just pressing trade for the sake of it and not gathering genuine data then I'd question your patience. I did the same thing so I'm not criticizing just asking whether you're being honest with yourself (because I wasn't). You said slightly but what about comms when trading small size (it's a bigger proportion). It's a typical new trader mentality to think about the winnings, what about the potential losses? If you lose $250 (or more) a month instead what does that do to you? Can you afford it or will it take you out of the game? Many come in under capitalized take their hail mary shot and exit trading, that's why the statistics of failed traders are so bad. I can't speak for you personally but the typical trader experience is live too early, pay market tuition, either push through it because they have the patience and the capital or exit the industry. It takes some a year, it takes some 3 years (or longer - there was a post on here a couple of months ago that took someone 4 and a half years to get back to breakeven) to get profitable and so you have to be realistic about what losses would do to you as well. This is only my perspective but if you spent a long time in SIM and failed then you'll pay education of BBT/DAS or whatever and that'll be your cost. If you go live and fail then you'll pay BBT/DAS and market tuition. If you go live an succeed then you cover the costs but given the statistics against you then on average you'll increase your cost, why can't you for a period of time only take your setup in SIM (and just watch everything else or take mental entries and stops), you don't need live to see if your setup works you need live to see whether you have money psychology issues but for me that's the last step because I have my working strategy to fall back on so I know what I'm dealing with. If you can't wait for your setup in SIM then I'd question your psychological readiness to go live. If you can only treat SIM as a game then you'll treat immaterial amounts as a game, if you trade material amounts then money psychology issues will make life difficult (as I spoke about above) and imo that's asking for trouble on a "slightly" green strategy. Martin
  5. It's quite personal because it depends on your strategy. Aiman did a video recently where I think he suggested 3 consecutive green months in sim though. However, in terms of win rate or certain R that depends on your strategy. For example Thor has a target of like 4R (although is mostly always higher) and his success rate is well above 70% I believe. Aiman has a lower success rate but his R per trade is quite a bit higher. In general terms there's two main things that will cause you to fail 1) a bad system 2) you don't follow your system (when it's good). Deal with the system first, trying to do both in live is what causes a lot of traders pain in the early days. Therefore you should be comfortably green but you should set that for yourself, like 50R per month 100R it's up to you. For me the biggest thing with going live too early is the psychology changes when real money is on the line so you really, really, really need to trust your system to help you not fall for the impulses of not adhering to it. If you don't trust it explicitly then you start stopping out early (or not at all and blow up), taking profit too quickly etc thereby the whole premise of your system falls over. The only way to do it is to prove it to yourself that it works. Imo it's one of the biggest reason new traders bleed money in the beginning, it takes a lot out permanently while other persevere through it and give themselves a chance to become successful. Martin
  6. Hey, Read this couple days ago and thought I'd give newer traders or someone who uses chartlog first chance to reach out. I don't think the forum is really active unfortunately. In terms of going live, don't rush it. Many traders just end up with a downward equity curve going live to quickly (me included). Test things out and prove to yourself you're profitable in sim first. I saw your post separately on chartlog, I don't use it personally so I can't really offer specific advice. There's a video in the education center about journaling so maybe give that a watch. I'm no longer a newbie but if you have any questions then fell free to reach out or the mentorships are also a good place to ask questions also. Martin
  7. Yeah without running a bunch of backtests vs my visual experience I can't say. It's 5am my time so my brains not working full speed (joys of trading from Australia) but I'm not really understanding what you've written, hypothetically lets say [$100 PDC (likely to be minimum) + $5 ATR] / [$106 as it's had a huge gap up on news - VWAP $105] so it would become $105/$1 = $105 which doesn't make sense? I assume what you're trying to say is if the stock runs it's ATR then you'd hit 5R if you didn't partial? I'm not going to say it won't work because I haven't tested it but a couple of things to think about: 1) On a gap up it'll most likely be the PDC that's the minimum. On big enough news it could've easily gapped it's ATR or like 10c away or whatever, that doesn't stop it being an ORB target so you'd have to cater for that scenario. 2) Lets say a stock like Tesla (wide ATR) gaps 0.2%, this would be most likely to pass your formula as it has a lot of room to it's ATR. However, what is going to make that a strong ORB candidate? with a small gap which potentially means people are jumping in with no strategy following the price or someone is pushing the price trying to trap people going long before flushing it. Granted it might not be on your watchlist for an ORB but just highlighting you'd need to be careful of it being biased in that type of scenario. 3) Stocks in the current market don't often ORB and run it's ATR without probably stopping you out (assuming you will move to breakeven like most traders do). 4) Targets are not necessarily an ATR, if you end up back in a value range or hitting a strong daily level it'll probably struggle to run through it quickly. I'd want to input my target into the formula based on something I pick out on pre-market. 5) While you say 5R, that's assuming you don't partial. It's not really a 5R trade as most will heavily partial on an ORB strategy, it seems like you're trying to turn a momentum based thing into a hold for an hour or two strategy. It can happen but if it runs quickly and gets extended then you get the situation of heavy profit taking and parabolic reversal traders (like me) which can end up pushing at back to VWAP and below, while it wasn't from an ORB see Tesla yesterday just before 10am as an example of a stock that moved too much too quickly and gave me a lovely short from all the trapped longs who chased it (most of those types of trades for me do come in the first 5-10 minutes from ORB style trades). Trending stocks tend to be slow grinding movements rather than momentum. Once you get it sorted try it on todays QQQ though, that was a bit extended for me from memory. Just some personal experience though as I approached trading from a formula standpoint initially (although I wouldn't have listened to me either as I back myself to accomplish anything), I'm an analyst/finance guy by trade and thought I could mathematically break everything down and take trades based on formula. My answer would give me an X probability and I'd grade the answer which means I'd put on Y size and then once I got it working I'd build a trading bot and go travel the world. I built automatic pre market decisions and levels based on daily/weekly/monthly pivots etc, highlighted confluence levels (all pulled automatically). In my practice testing I had all sorts of data recorded like wick length % and it's impact on the ORB, had probabilities based on X,Y,Z combination of criteria for different strategies. Ultimately I spent about a year on it part time, in short it didn't work, there's too much nuance to markets unless you have the size to push everyone around like hedge funds.
  8. It's at the bottom of here https://bearbulltraders.com/education/
  9. If you asked me to write a trading Bot ATR is where I'd start. However, personally no, it's easy enough with experience IMO. It's not an exact science, some will work extended some won't there's not an exact cutoff line. It's where it tips into bad risk:reward trading is the key which is of course determined by where you think it can get to and the space you have to give for risk. Order flow and reading the tape experience will keep you out of more bad trades at that time that trying to draw an exact line of extended or not extended.
  10. Hey, welcome! Firstly I'll say I don't trade 1 Min ORB in the current market generally speaking. The open is quite choppy a lot of the time at the moment. However: 1) Yes eyeball/experience, it won't be the same for something $5 vs $200 for example so can't say exact amount. Different stocks move different amount even considering price range so has to be experience IMO. 2) Yes for the 1 Min ORB it's the range of the 1st minute candle, another popular strategy is the 5 min ORB which would be the first 5 min candle. That's not to say you can't develop your own 2 Min ORB, just not what is taught here. 3) Yes engulfing candles can be a strategy as you might trap some people short or ride along with people buying the dip but bear in mind it's a momentum strategy so I would record that in your testing and see how it alters your success. In this scenario I'd more likely be trading the Fallen Angel strategy (Brian) for a better entry. 4) Depending on the direction of your 1 Min ORB. On a ORB long a bottom wick is fine as this is buying from the lows (bullish) but an upper wick would be bad as there's some selling. Obviously vice versa if you are taking ORB short. 5) Yes taking too extended from VWAP makes risk:reward more challenging. Experience again I'm afraid. 6) You don't, 1 trade at that time. Experienced traders might take more later on but at the open would be asking for trouble. Martin
  11. Kyle is the expert on hotkeys, try posting in this thread as more people will be following it so higher chance of getting someone who can help you
  12. Yeah he losses a lot more now than he used to when I started, Andrew needs momentum and the market is a bit choppy at the minute. He tries to still trade the first 5 minutes and often losses because it's choppy but then makes it back plus more when things calm down and picks a direction. In all honestly I mute the trading room now if he's trading, it triggers my desire to trade a lot, I can't listen to the "looks like its going up", "think its topping" etc even if they don't actually take the trade it's like "go, go, go, move, trade, hurry up" in my head. The psychology element I needed to tackle was patience so I only listen if it's Thor or Jarad at the open or I listen to music. Yeah basically that's the idea, if I had my time again I would start live trading later. I jumped in because I could do it in replay but what I could really do was the market conditions at the time, I didn't really truly understand what was happening (even though I thought I did at the time). Yeah so with those two it requires a great deal of patience and potentially no trades in the day, so 9/20 being a trend continuation strategy and Mountain Pass being a trend reversal strategy. Key being you need a trend to be happening/have happened to get them and even then they don't happen 100% of the time there's a trend. It's not a bad thing if that works for you but I need something to be setting up all the time so I have strategies for different types of day. Yeah the thing I would say is this requires a lot of time and effort, I have no idea how many hours I've put in at this stage but it's a lot. If you can get the hours in consistently then things start to become clearer and clearer, I don't know how many "aha" moments I've had now. So it's difficult to put it in a forum post but I can try explaining high level. Ignoring gaps from news catalysts, fundamentally how a market moves is price and volume. Price being obvious and volume to see who's involved and what they are doing. You have the traditional candle charts and the volume at the bottom but you also can see volume profile (volume at price). Market makers and big players move markets and they do so in large volume so I want to swim along with them/avoid swimming against them, the volume tells us where they are and then we try and read the structure of the market to work out where they are going next. Market makers are after liquidity (Supply and Demand) so they will move from one high trading area to the next, building inventory and getting rid of it, testing prior liquidity zones to see whether there's any more liquidity there before they move onto the next, shaking out weak hands (false breakouts). It requires a lot of time to get the experience to understand it but it's where I feel comfortable and I keep improving at reading it. I then put trades around that view of the market. For example if we set a range and we break the edge then it's one of two things a breakout or a false breakout. On a breakout I want a retest and if it holds I'll go with that direction, if it fails the retest then I know it's probably going to the other side of the range and possibly further. I have other trades for trends (ABCD, trendlines), reversals (Parabolic, Head and Shoulders etc). Effectively no matter the market condition I have something that is potentially setting up or happening (as long as there is volume). That suits me as it gives me the patience to wait as something is always setting up and also allows me to trade without bias as I'm not reliant on a particular market type so I don't force it when it's not there. I've found this is what I need to 1) have the patience to wait for my setup and 2) hold winners longer because I have a fair idea what the failure of it looks like so I'm not anxious to take profit too quickly. Obviously that's very high level so if you want to learn more then I recommend reading Thor's book (in general Thor's teaching of the market but I personally only somewhat follow the pivots, a lot of people use them completely as it gives them structure but I've found if I make indicators the main part of my trading I put too much emphasis on them. However, if I get correlation between what they're doing and what I'm looking at then it might increase my confidence in the trade or I might use them as a profit target). Anna Coulling (A complete guide to volume price analysis), Jim Dalton's books. I traded full time for a period but when I was working in the city, it was very difficult in the summer as I just didn't have time for sleep, during COVID lockdowns it was easier as I got rid of the commute times and I could do it a night or all weekend. However, once they tried to force us to go back to the office, long story short I resigned and given what was happening at the time they allowed me to work from home while they transitioned away from me, in the end I did that full time for about a year and even now I still work part time for them (but completely on the hours I want to work to get the tasks done). I won't pretend to know about your business but I used to run my fathers business which was high value/low frequency products, I used to try do all the business stuff (ordering inventory, tidying up, accounting etc) in the morning when there's wasn't a customer then in the afternoon I would go into the office and study (to become an accountant) if a customer wasn't there, if we had two of us working on the day they would take first customer and so I'd only need to go out of the office if we had 2+ customers in at the same time or if they specifically needed me. Not sure if it's doable for your situation but it's the only experience I have that might be similar.. No I haven't day traded ASX, only thing I saw was an interview on youtube of someone who did. They were basically trading an arbitrage style trading. I just wanted to focus on one market, one platform etc till I feel my learning curve is pretty much flattened and US market just has most material and best platforms to learn.
  13. Hey, In short no, just get your stocks from the trading room + there's the free scanner on trading terminal (BBT built). Here is the link https://tradingterminal.com/scanner
  14. Hey, Ok it's a pretty big topic so can't do it any real justice in a forum post but let me try give you a start. In terms of some materials, Thor touches a little in his book and is just a good book for understanding the market in general, basically a lot of the stuff he teaches here if you like his pivot style of trading. Anna Coulling book "a complete guide to volume price analysis" is also excellent for volume/price analysis in isolation. Jim Dalton also talks about the whole principal of that style of trading, those are also excellent and widely recommended here. There are a number of Youtube people who also talk about the subject a lot but a lot of the main volume profile traders on it trade futures. Korbs, Tradepro academy are some I watch and cover volume profile specifically. Also some of the interview style channels like chat with traders or B the Trader have volume profile traders on there sometimes. Basically all supply and demand is, is where are buyers buying and where are they selling (and short sellers selling and buying back). What do their positions currently look like, did they already profit take? will they step in and buy more? will it pass through their buying area and they get stopped out? It's just areas where a lot of volume has taken place recently and so will probably do so again as traders have to make decisions. In volume profile the high volume areas you'll expect choppy price action because that's where fair price has been established and buyers and sellers are happy to trade at the price so is where positions get built. Once we are done in the range bound a traverse to the next area will take place through the low volume area as it is not a fair price for buyers or sellers (on an up move too expensive for big buyers and not high enough for short sellers to step in). An upcoming low volume area will pause price and we will trade/range in a high volume area immediately prior (and either get ready for the next push or big players profit take and opposite side steps in and we'll reverse), alternatively we'll pullback to get the momentum to push through the low volume area. Given this you therefore need to have strategies about how you will trade the exit from range bound markets and avoid (or trade) false breakouts. It is also worth noting that DAS doesn't calculate volume profile correctly (and refused to fix it when I asked them). Basically they put all the volume at the close of the candle so if you're looking at a daily chart for example the entirety of the days volume is at the closing price of the day rather than where the volume was actually traded. As far is DAS is concerned I therefore look at the prior day on a 1 minute chart (as accurate as you can get DAS to be) or you need to use an alternative source such as bookmap. I will ultimately leave DAS because of it, just need to get time to deal with a new platform.
  15. In short they are pivot levels but depending on who you are listening to they may be different types of Pivot levels/calculations (there are quite a few different ones) As TC said in BBT people are generally referring to Camarilla Pivots which you'll find Thor explaining in education center or if you invest in his book. However, you may also hear him prefix it with Floor (Floor Pivots) e.g. Floor S3 which is another type of pivot indicator. The main one you'll here him reference from the Floor Pivots is the "Central Pivot" . If you're viewing Youtube or something like that then you just need to know who you are listening to and figure out which pivot set they are using.
  16. Hi, Nice! only really headed out that way when going to Wilson's Prom a few times, I live on Ocean Road side of Melbourne so tend to head out that side more. Yeah people say that to mean people start and look at Andrew and he'll trade for 10 minutes and be up $5k and say he's done trading for the day, everyone loves the idea but most can't trade like Andrew. I started with BBT in July 2020 I think, short version of my story is I work in Finance and had an interest in markets. Swing traded a bunch of stuff at the bottom in 2020 when things were stupidly cheap and made a decent amount (like a years salary), no real strategy just knew people were panicking like previous crisis's and things were crazy cheap. Decided to use that money to give trading a shot because I got tired of climbing the corporate ladder and the politics of it, worst case I decided I'll come out breakeven on money from the market, put a little over PDT ($25k) in the account and started directly with IB. Heard all stories of blown up accounts so I kept a lot back and was only ever going to let it get down to the $25k so I was able to top up my account a number of times if I needed to. Traded too big at the start but then really scaled back to $20 risk per trade to make sure the amount I set aside would last and give me the time I needed. A lot of time in replay and a couple of failed tradebook attempts later I have my style that I like and works for me, I still tweak it here and there to nail it down for the success % + Risk : Reward I want then I'll move onto maintaining that while scaling up. Yeah no problem, just reach out if you have questions. I'm on here everyday working on trading.
  17. Hi, welcome, I'm also trading from Australia (Melbourne) so tend to trade the first hour or two of the market open till the volatility dies down a bit. You're a member here so utilize the education center (strategy webinars but I think it's really valuable to watch all Thor's mentorships in there as you'll learn what everyone else is asking and so it'll likely answer a lot of your own questions or questions you didn't even realize you had), the books you've mentioned and can always recommend more if you like reading, also youtube has a lot of useful content if you find the right people (personally I watch BBT, Humbled Trader, SMB capital and Carmine Rosato). I think initially you want to give different styles a try in SIM and understand what kind of trading style suits you/who's style resonates with you then you can really work on your choice in the bootcamp. When I first started I tried to trade like Andrew because I wanted to be done in the first 10 minutes due to the timezone, it was "easy" during COVID but now trading in the first 5 minutes is very choppy so I had to change approach. Now I'm probably a mix of part of different mods as well as some other stuff I've picked up, that's the beauty of trading there's no one way to do it. In terms of service, I don't think you really need Trade Ideas, there's free scanners in trading terminal (run by BBT) and also the chatroom here will give you a good place to start everyday. Yeah most people here use DAS so if you go along with that then DAS for Sim and also the replay function in there, BBT have a free replay but personally I use the DAS one because it's the platform I'm trading in so it keeps everything familiar. TraderVue is a personal choice, I personally just use Microsoft Excel because I use it all the time at work so I can analyze anything I want to in there easily. I think there's some Excel journal templates floating around on here somewhere if you want to keep the costs down. Happy to answer any other questions if I can.
  18. Specifically 1 share dark pool orders? The tape gives a story about what's going to happen but having watched AMZN do this before that's not what was happening, there were thousands of 1 share orders went through at that price for several minutes. As the price traversed up and down through it the orders went from above the ask to below the ask over and over, in other words just noise. Given the amount of shares that the market trades I'm not sure anyone can convince me that filtering out 1 share trades is bad. Like Thor I run 3 tapes that filter different size trades, I've actually been experimenting with removing FADF from my smaller 2 tapes (retail size). Given the size that participates in dark pools it doesn't feel like I should be bothered with 100 shares on it, doesn't feel like their true intentions. I keep missing Thor's mentorship live but have been meaning to ask him about it next time I make it, will try do it this week.
  19. I'm also in Melbourne (Point Cook), happy to meet up with fellow traders. I've been a little in and out it since I started but have transitioned down to part time at work now to dedicate a lot more time to trading. I'll send you both PM with my email.
  20. Hi, Just saw this was unanswered when I was looking for another post about Camarilla. If you are still looking for the solution, it's because of pre and post market data. The stock closed at 19.25 and the high was 19.50 in the post market which is why DAS is calculating that as a level (your formula is correct). Martin
  21. Ok so I might be a little clearer now I think. So if you're saying this is mainly a compensation for the low success rate of the 15 min ORB then I would question that as a strategy. 1 & 5 are part of my trade book but 15 min ORB's aren't, the way I trade and my interpretation of how Andrew/Brian etc trade is that by this point of the day we're looking for ABCD's for break of the high of the day on the 1 minute or other such strategies. If we break that down: - In the event we have a runner that has a tonne of momentum and is just climbing continually constantly breaking high of the day, mini pull back or consolidation then higher then it would look like a 15 min ORB is working and someone might trade it as a 15 minute ORB if they're getting in late but chances are it's risky because it's fairly extended by that point. If I'm in that from early (1 or 5 ORB for example) then I'm not necessarily partialling on a break of HOD because it's constantly breaking them and so unless it's at a resistance point I might just be letting it go as will a lot of other traders. - In the event traders are looking at it as an ABCD on the 1 minute or 5 minute chart for a break of high of the day then as soon as it breaks we're all taking heavy partials because that was our main move that we were looking for, where as as soon as it breaks is effectively your entry. I suspect this initial pop through that was our main move and that we're heavily partialing on is what you're seeing as going in your direction briefly. Unless I think the stock is really strong then I'm probably getting down to <25% position on that initial pop through HOD that would be your entry. If this is the case then on many stocks that might have the criteria of 15 min ORB you're entering into a lot of exits, some have the strength to keep going but a lot that break HOD then end of fading back to VWAP etc. If you think my assessment is correct then I'd suggest watching Andrew and listen to Brian trade that part of the day, it might change your perspective on why that's happening and while you don't necessarily need to trade it like them it's essential to know what other people are looking at to improve your own trade book.
  22. Yes it's generally meant which of the existing strategies or variations of those. I can't think of anything that sounds closer than high frequency trading (high volume, small moves, quick. Only difference is frequency) which I'm not aware of any individuals doing or at least individuals without a bot (2010 flash crash) It's very difficult for us to give you good reasons because other than the fact it's a large size to get a mini move in your existing strategy direction we don't really have the information to break it down and pinpoint X,Y, Z as a potential problem and so all people can really say is, don't know of other successful traders doing it so probably a bad idea without actually processing what it looks like and whether it could work. I know how you feel, if I'm confident I'm right then until I see the data that proves my thesis incorrect then it'll just bug me no matter what other people say and I think that's probably the case with you here. Because we don't really have any detail on what you're planning just some questions that came to my head immediately that I'd ask yourself before you spend a lot of time testing: - What R are you going to get from this strategy, 1R requires 50% before commissions and 0.2R 84% before commission just to break even. Those are vastly different trades, with 1R I'd give it a shot in Sim as many partial there anyway so if you're seeing that 90% of the time then that's much more sustainable than 0.2R, personally I wouldn't even waste my time trying 0.2R on an ORB extension strategy with someone else money. - What size are you going to take to make this worth it and what type of stock? What if you get stuck in a news halt or volatility halt in a low float, will it blow up your account? Is there enough liquidity in the stocks you're trading to do what you're planning e.g. Andrew can only really trade certain stocks because of his size. Does the size mean slippage is going to become an issue because you're only looking for a tiny move? Is it a scalable strategy even if it's viable with your current size? What is commissions going to do to your strategy, if you're looking for $0.05-$0.10 moves with a low R could be issue as it could eat 10% of your profit on a strategy that doesn't have that flexibility (e.g. 0.2R needing 84% before commissions). What is your basis for taking the partial if you're not doing it at a resistance point and that you're not going to do it too early/late, R? - What is wrong with your existing strategy that's making this a strategy you want to look at? As someone new, if tried and tested strategies aren't working for you whilst working for others my first question would be why rather than looking to develop a new one? For example chasing entries, lack of patience to wait for a good entry, low volume, lack of price battle resolution, entering into a logical resistance point (prior resistance, pivot points, half/whole dollars etc), stock selection etc. Is this new strategy going to negate that issue because experienced traders are already getting 70-80% success rate with their relevant size so whats the pro of looking for a strategy with a small move? It's easier to stick roughly to what other people are doing because day traders are looking for similar things and so it can become a self fulfilling prophecy at times. As Peter said it's not to discourage, the market is tough enough for a new trader without trying to reinvent the wheel. As you said it's probably not completely unique so if it's legit then why not try to find a successful trader who does something similar and take learnings from them rather than putting in the many 1000's of hours hard yards that have gone into the strategies that traders here use. I'm always looking to improve so would be great if you have found something, best of luck if you decide you must travel that path.
  23. Scalping exists as a type of trading rather than a strategy i.e. Andrew and therefore scalping in itself is viable. I would be defined as more of a scalper and while I don't focus on R per se, by nature it is good trade management to focus on a good entry so that risk is low and reward is high. I didn't see an R figure in your original post but if you're talking about 0.5 R you're talking about 66.6% success before commissions and you then add in the increased commissions for the increased size you'll probably be talking upwards of 70% success rate in order to break even (I assume you've calculated what this would be based on your own circumstances), if you ask me that's asking for trouble and if you nail your strategies then it shouldn't be needed as good traders are generally in the 70-80% accuracy mark anyway so a risky 80-90% doesn't make sense. However, if you run a significant enough sample and it's clear cut then it doesn't really matter what anyone else thinks if it works for you. If I looked at how I would do that, I would be looking for upwards of 1000 trades with a noticeable margin of error before I would take notice of it being anything other than a lucky streak and go live. While I do see what you're talking about in my own trading sometimes I'm not sure I see it 90% of the time that I would want to make those kind of trades viable. I would rather work on my trading than testing that kind of volume unless you have the skill set to program a bot. Just to run an example through of my thinking behind the above, what kind of R would you be looking at? If you were looking for 0.5R, what if it goes 0.3R and then starts to pull back, do you take the 0.3R and run due to your increased size/risk or hold out like a normal trade? Once you get this close then it becomes really tight in the R/success % and each 0.1 drop in R has a larger % impact to required success. In a 0.3R example you'd be somewhere around or even above the 80% mark to break even with commissions. If we work that through on a $0.2 risk because you've got a good entry, your 0.5R is $0.1 and your 0.3R is $0.06, that kind of difference is very difficult to control in my view. Therefore with a high dependency on a very high success rate and a high impact of R on the required success % then I would want a very high sample size to test that. If you increase that to say 1R then there are successful traders out there who don't mind taking a trade like that if they have a high degree of confidence, that's normally recommended for experienced traders though.
  24. In NZ actually, tangariro crossing on the north island. Yeah exactly and really focus on the other areas of trading outside specific strategy, risk management and psychology are essential for example. If you don't master those even if you're good at the strategy you'll still blow up your account.
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