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Martin D

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  1. Ok so I might be a little clearer now I think. So if you're saying this is mainly a compensation for the low success rate of the 15 min ORB then I would question that as a strategy. 1 & 5 are part of my trade book but 15 min ORB's aren't, the way I trade and my interpretation of how Andrew/Brian etc trade is that by this point of the day we're looking for ABCD's for break of the high of the day on the 1 minute or other such strategies. If we break that down: - In the event we have a runner that has a tonne of momentum and is just climbing continually constantly breaking high of the day, mini pull back or consolidation then higher then it would look like a 15 min ORB is working and someone might trade it as a 15 minute ORB if they're getting in late but chances are it's risky because it's fairly extended by that point. If I'm in that from early (1 or 5 ORB for example) then I'm not necessarily partialling on a break of HOD because it's constantly breaking them and so unless it's at a resistance point I might just be letting it go as will a lot of other traders. - In the event traders are looking at it as an ABCD on the 1 minute or 5 minute chart for a break of high of the day then as soon as it breaks we're all taking heavy partials because that was our main move that we were looking for, where as as soon as it breaks is effectively your entry. I suspect this initial pop through that was our main move and that we're heavily partialing on is what you're seeing as going in your direction briefly. Unless I think the stock is really strong then I'm probably getting down to <25% position on that initial pop through HOD that would be your entry. If this is the case then on many stocks that might have the criteria of 15 min ORB you're entering into a lot of exits, some have the strength to keep going but a lot that break HOD then end of fading back to VWAP etc. If you think my assessment is correct then I'd suggest watching Andrew and listen to Brian trade that part of the day, it might change your perspective on why that's happening and while you don't necessarily need to trade it like them it's essential to know what other people are looking at to improve your own trade book.
  2. Yes it's generally meant which of the existing strategies or variations of those. I can't think of anything that sounds closer than high frequency trading (high volume, small moves, quick. Only difference is frequency) which I'm not aware of any individuals doing or at least individuals without a bot (2010 flash crash) It's very difficult for us to give you good reasons because other than the fact it's a large size to get a mini move in your existing strategy direction we don't really have the information to break it down and pinpoint X,Y, Z as a potential problem and so all people can really say is, don't know of other successful traders doing it so probably a bad idea without actually processing what it looks like and whether it could work. I know how you feel, if I'm confident I'm right then until I see the data that proves my thesis incorrect then it'll just bug me no matter what other people say and I think that's probably the case with you here. Because we don't really have any detail on what you're planning just some questions that came to my head immediately that I'd ask yourself before you spend a lot of time testing: - What R are you going to get from this strategy, 1R requires 50% before commissions and 0.2R 84% before commission just to break even. Those are vastly different trades, with 1R I'd give it a shot in Sim as many partial there anyway so if you're seeing that 90% of the time then that's much more sustainable than 0.2R, personally I wouldn't even waste my time trying 0.2R on an ORB extension strategy with someone else money. - What size are you going to take to make this worth it and what type of stock? What if you get stuck in a news halt or volatility halt in a low float, will it blow up your account? Is there enough liquidity in the stocks you're trading to do what you're planning e.g. Andrew can only really trade certain stocks because of his size. Does the size mean slippage is going to become an issue because you're only looking for a tiny move? Is it a scalable strategy even if it's viable with your current size? What is commissions going to do to your strategy, if you're looking for $0.05-$0.10 moves with a low R could be issue as it could eat 10% of your profit on a strategy that doesn't have that flexibility (e.g. 0.2R needing 84% before commissions). What is your basis for taking the partial if you're not doing it at a resistance point and that you're not going to do it too early/late, R? - What is wrong with your existing strategy that's making this a strategy you want to look at? As someone new, if tried and tested strategies aren't working for you whilst working for others my first question would be why rather than looking to develop a new one? For example chasing entries, lack of patience to wait for a good entry, low volume, lack of price battle resolution, entering into a logical resistance point (prior resistance, pivot points, half/whole dollars etc), stock selection etc. Is this new strategy going to negate that issue because experienced traders are already getting 70-80% success rate with their relevant size so whats the pro of looking for a strategy with a small move? It's easier to stick roughly to what other people are doing because day traders are looking for similar things and so it can become a self fulfilling prophecy at times. As Peter said it's not to discourage, the market is tough enough for a new trader without trying to reinvent the wheel. As you said it's probably not completely unique so if it's legit then why not try to find a successful trader who does something similar and take learnings from them rather than putting in the many 1000's of hours hard yards that have gone into the strategies that traders here use. I'm always looking to improve so would be great if you have found something, best of luck if you decide you must travel that path.
  3. Scalping exists as a type of trading rather than a strategy i.e. Andrew and therefore scalping in itself is viable. I would be defined as more of a scalper and while I don't focus on R per se, by nature it is good trade management to focus on a good entry so that risk is low and reward is high. I didn't see an R figure in your original post but if you're talking about 0.5 R you're talking about 66.6% success before commissions and you then add in the increased commissions for the increased size you'll probably be talking upwards of 70% success rate in order to break even (I assume you've calculated what this would be based on your own circumstances), if you ask me that's asking for trouble and if you nail your strategies then it shouldn't be needed as good traders are generally in the 70-80% accuracy mark anyway so a risky 80-90% doesn't make sense. However, if you run a significant enough sample and it's clear cut then it doesn't really matter what anyone else thinks if it works for you. If I looked at how I would do that, I would be looking for upwards of 1000 trades with a noticeable margin of error before I would take notice of it being anything other than a lucky streak and go live. While I do see what you're talking about in my own trading sometimes I'm not sure I see it 90% of the time that I would want to make those kind of trades viable. I would rather work on my trading than testing that kind of volume unless you have the skill set to program a bot. Just to run an example through of my thinking behind the above, what kind of R would you be looking at? If you were looking for 0.5R, what if it goes 0.3R and then starts to pull back, do you take the 0.3R and run due to your increased size/risk or hold out like a normal trade? Once you get this close then it becomes really tight in the R/success % and each 0.1 drop in R has a larger % impact to required success. In a 0.3R example you'd be somewhere around or even above the 80% mark to break even with commissions. If we work that through on a $0.2 risk because you've got a good entry, your 0.5R is $0.1 and your 0.3R is $0.06, that kind of difference is very difficult to control in my view. Therefore with a high dependency on a very high success rate and a high impact of R on the required success % then I would want a very high sample size to test that. If you increase that to say 1R then there are successful traders out there who don't mind taking a trade like that if they have a high degree of confidence, that's normally recommended for experienced traders though.
  4. In NZ actually, tangariro crossing on the north island. Yeah exactly and really focus on the other areas of trading outside specific strategy, risk management and psychology are essential for example. If you don't master those even if you're good at the strategy you'll still blow up your account.
  5. Welcome Matt, I'm in Australia so in a similar situation as the market opens at 1:30am at the moment so can only trade for the first hour or so on a consistent basis during the Australian summer. I think it depends on who you are, if you listen to the moderators they will tell you to find your edge or in other words what suits you. All the moderators trade differently and have different strategies because they all have different strengths. For example Andrew trades the open but Peter says it's not his strength despite wanting to do it better, they are both consistently profitable traders, you don't need to be able to trade every situation/strategy in every minute of the day to be an excellent trader. So while ORB will be difficult for some it's childs play to Andrew and a favoured strategy for many. It might be you like the idea of the open but it might not be your trading edge so try out different things before you settle on a style to try and nail down. We all have different characteristics and abilities in life, I'm in finance by trade, if I'd decided to be an artist, author, tradie or something like that I wouldn't have been very successful, I'm not good at it and was never good at it whereas numbers came relatively easy to me. If you're suited to later in the day then it's better to spend the 3 weeks trading strategies that your good at rather than all 6 weeks on stuff you're not. If you are more suited to the open then great it's suits your availability more. Personally I'm not very good outside the first 30 minutes, I've tried and I don't have the attention span to sit for hours waiting for a setup, I get bored and start taking bad trades to cure the boredom. The fast pace of the open suits me but for others it's chaos and they can't process the information and make decisions fast enough, luckily that works with the time I have available to spend in the market at the moment or I would've had to undertake a much slower process. In terms of strategy I didn't want to limit myself to one specific strategy so I focussed on time of day, for me that's the first 30 minutes and so my trade book is ORB (1&5 minute), Fallen Angel/Rising Devil and ABCD predominately. I don't think there's one best approach for everyone but the advice I took while learning was to spend time overtrading in Sim, investigate and try out different strategies at different times of the day and find out what works for you, develop your edge and trade book, once developed treat the Sim as if it was live (while refining your trade book) and become consistently profitable in Sim before going live. As others have said the education centre is an excellent place to find resources on strategies, trade books, risk management, psychology and all other different aspects of trading, it's a great place to start your journey by working your way through that. Spend time in the chat room listening to the pre market show and during the trading day even if you're not trading, the moderators will often give out nuggets of information about what they're looking at so it's great to just sit and look at what they're looking at to help your development.
  6. Right click on the chart, go to chart area, then config area and tick the highlighted box below
  7. I'm in Australia and mine is normally between 200-250ms but I have seen it up above 300ms. I did see a post about optimising DAS speed but haven't looked into actually doing it yet.
  8. I'm grateful that they are taking their time to produce high quality and free content for us (I have paid lifetime membership even if they don't make another video). It's not just the time to deliver it but the time to make the slide deck, plan what to say etc. I'm at work when they're on, if I can take a break to watch then I will and if I can't then I'll watch the recording and there's a forum there if I have any questions. No time works for everyone, if they do as you're suggesting and make it at market close then that's 6am for me and I'll have been up till 1-2am trading the open. I'm not going to ask them to get up in the middle of the night to deliver it live to the Australian/NZ/Asian timezones when I can just watch the video. I'm realistic that they can't cater for everyone with the time difference, I knew that when I joined and it's really a minor issue for me.
  9. @PeterD Yes unfortunately seeing a resurgence in cases which is disappointing, I was hoping we'd be clear by now. It's interesting how everyone views success differently, we are panicking and locking down with about 120 cases today and the rest of Australia has locked Victoria out yet when you look other places in the world they are happy to open up with significantly more cases.
  10. Nice to see fellow Melbourne traders on here, I'm out in Sanctuary Lakes.
  11. Hi all, I'm Martin and I'm a Finance Manager (Management Accountant), originally from Scotland but now living in Melbourne, Australia. I've started trading commodity CFD's through covid which has sparked my interest in expanding my knowledge and taking it more seriously. I plan on trading the European markets/US market opening in the Australian evening whilst being able to continue to work due to the time difference. Just finished reading Andrew's books and decided to give the community a shot to accelerate my learning. Looking forward to learning off all the experienced traders here and going on a steep learning curve.
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