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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/28/2019 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    Live trading summary of the month of September. Actually a disappointing month. I am almost at my 1 year anniversary going live. On that anniversary day (in 3 weeks) I will be deciding to continue on with this endeavor or stopping. Now when I decided last year to make the big decision on the anniversary, I thought the decision would be obvious. Either I would be profitable, or not profitable but making good progress or really struggling and getting more red each month. But that hasn’t happen. My average profit (per month) for the last 8 months is +0.1R. I have had 6 months of being flat (between +/-3R at the end of the month). Then one month of ~+5R and one month ~-5R. Leaving me flat, difficult to determine if I am making progress and now I am indecisive. I really tried to focus on the score card this month. I closed my P/L window all month, only to look at it today. This did really help me to help focus on the score card. My score card was a big step up from last month at 89.3%. Last month was 85.9%. But my P/L for the month (which I found out today) was -1R. Thus another flat month. It was an unusual month that I had no sizeable winner (>1.5R). Usually I have a good winner once a week. But none this month. Though I entered into trades that had a really good run, I was either stopped out before the run or partialed out too quickly missing the run. My win% was a little low at 44%, but I still should be making a profit. I was under the wrong impression for the past 17 months. I thought you take good setups, get a good entry and you will be profitable. I thought trade management was icing on the cake. It is where you take a small/moderate profit and make it into a larger one. As long as you don’t highly mismanage (like going through your stops – which I don’t) you still should make some profit. But I was wrong. I really nailed the setups this month. And most of my entries were right on. But, still no profit. This was due to poor trade management. Setups, entries and trade management are links in a chain. You break one of them and you still don’t make any profit. I have to admit even though my setups were rock solid this month. My trade management was worse than usual. See the data below. This is the summary of my score card for the month of September. Three very good scores and one poor. I took 31 trades this month and the table lists how many trades I ranked A,B,C,…. For each scoring category. Total A B C D F Grade Setup 31 28 2 1 A Entry 31 24 6 1 A- Partials/Exit 31 8 12 6 2 2 C+ Share Size 31 27 1 4 1 A- Total B+ I took 31 trades this month. 28 “A” setups, only two “B” setups and one “C” setup. My entries were reasonably solid, but all the money was eaten by the poor management. Poor management issues: 1) I need to bail out of a trade when the fill is really bad. I never did this successfully, even once, all month. I even had chances to exit with a profit. Instead I hold on to my original S/O, which is now farther than -1R. 2) Took partial profits too often and too quickly. This has always been an issue of mine. Not new this month, just more painful. 3) I only take partial profits when the trade is going my way. Also, just important is to take a profit when the trade starts to go against and you lose faith in it. 4) What to do after I take one partial profit and the trade goes against you? It’s not easy for me to stop at B/E after only one partial. And of course I see it so often the trade goes big in my favor right after I stop out. 5) I forget I can now take 3 trades. This would make stopping out earlier easier. Because I can always get back into the trade. I also took a few amazing SIM trades (my 3rd trade of the day), because I thought I was already at my trade limit for the day. I remember two +3R trades this month that I took in SIM, thinking too bad I am at my 2 trade limit so I will take in SIM….. The Van K Tharp institute mentions a study that was done where only random entries would be made on stocks but expert traders, with perfect trade management would trade them. And guess what? They were profitable. Not as profitable of course on a good setup and good entry. But it really says something about the ultra high importance of the trade management. I am still taking the course (home study version): Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders last month. To place some accountability on myself to finish the course I have been posting my reading notes and assignments online. I was moving through the course reasonably fast until I hit Vol 3 , Chapter 3 which has monster size exercises to finish. I essentially spent the whole month on this one chapter. Stats for February/March/April/May/June/July/August/September: February March April May June July Aug Sept Total # of live trades 21 34 36 36 38 19 25 31 Hulk Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Max Loss Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Broke max trade rule 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hoy Key Mistakes 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 Score card 81% 81% 84.5% 85.8% 85.9% 89.3% I need to update my score card methodology. This is the current weight of each category: Original New Setup 50% 25% Entry 20% 15% Partials/Exit 20% 50% Share Size 10% 10% Total 100% 100% SIM trades have gone well this month. I definitely see an improvement. Aiming to go live with some 5/10/15 min ORBs in October. I need to improve on my exiting strategy after I take a first partial profit. Sometimes I stop at B/E, sometimes I stop at the original stop and sometimes I stop at a new stop in between B/E and my original S/O. Wow, this has been working out terribly. Apparently, I am horrible at deciding if to stay in the trade or not. EVERY trade I let go by B/E has never bounced back for me. And yes a lot of trades have bounced back after I S/O at B/E. So with no skills to determine this on the fly, I am going to lock in B/E with my hot keys. I do really want to manually stop, to keep building the mental muscle, but it is not working. Hopefully I will still have the strength to manually stop at my stop level when the trade goes against me without a partial profit taken. I want to leave that manual. Goals for October: 1) Don’t go hulk. 2) Learn to control your emotions after a loss. 3) The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month. 4) Keep risk per trade $30. 5) Keep improving health. 6) Keep making SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs 7) Start taking small live 5/10/15 min ORBs when stats say I am ready. 8] Continue with the Van Tharp course for traders. 9) Work on being able to manage a trade with a bad entry. Either exit or take shares off the trade to renormalize the risk. 10) Allow a third trade if a previous trade was exited well early for a tactical trade management purpose. 11) Adjust score card to weight trade management heavier. 12) Keep P/L window closed for the whole month of October. Only after the last trading session, on the last day of the month I can look at it. I need to focus on score card only. 13) Rewrite hotkeys to set stop at B/E after I take a partial profit. 14) The goal is to make money. Stop caring if you are right or wrong about a trade. If it was a good setup and well managed, you will always be right. 15) Experiment with a hot key (in SIM) to sell/cover 50% of shares when 1.5R is reached. Decide by end of month if you want to use it live.
  2. 1 point
    Thank you Vikram! I am doing well but not making any money. Still trying though
  3. 1 point
    27 September 2019 MU trade 1 Mu had today a bad earnings report so I was short bias on it. On the forst minute it opened very weak. On the second minute it pulled back to VWAP and saw it was holding that. On the way down I took it short for a 1 minute opening range breakdown. It did drop, I locked some profits in at 1:1 and got the rest out at B/E. LVS Trade 1 This was on V opening range breakout. On the 1 minute I was seeing a V pattern. I got in on the 5 minute opening range breakout. My first target was the moving average on the daily chart. It almost touched that, but then dropped below VWAP and got out of the trade. LVS Trade 2 This was a unnecessary trade. Not a clear setup visible. Not really clear triangle shape and not touches to the penny. Shouldn’t have taken this trade. MU trade 2 I made another trade on MU. Everything on the charts was telling me to go short. All the timeframes were in a downtrend, the price action was on all time frames below the moving averages, It was forming a descending wedge on the 1 minute chart with 3 touches to the penny and was also a 15 minute opening range breakdown. I really liked this one. WFC trade 1 This a good setup. All kinds of bullish signs were visible on the charts: All charts trending up, Wedge forming on the 1 and 5 minute chart, bullish hammer on the 5 minute chart, price action above all the moving averages (harmonious chart). These were enough reasons for me to go long on the 10 minute opening range breakout. Don’t really know anymore where I’ve put my stoploss. WFC Trade 2 Was really long bias on WFC after it touched VWAP 2 times. I went long on a not so clear ascending wedge pattern. After reviewing it I realized it was more like a chop area and consolidation period. Took 1 unneccesary trade on LVS and a chop trade on WFC today. Still ended the +2R
  4. 1 point
    Friday 9/27/2019 I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. I hate having my second worse day of the month on the last day of the month. I took 3 live trades this morning with MU and BABA Since MU was very in play I decided to swap it with AAPL as my primary focus. BABA was also on my market open watchlist with ROKU and WFC was on my 5min ORB watchlist. The daily chart on BABA was forming a pendant. MU had a big gap down. I was watching both to see which would set up. As usual there was a little delay with the volume on BABA but the volume did arrive near the open. So my focus was split. MU open with a nice drop and I was looking for the pull back. My focus was too split and I missed the pull back on MU so I waited for the break of the 45.42 daily level and went short with a the 45.02 level as my target. My stop was tight using the 45.42 level that it just broke. The price dropped and I took a small partial (1/8). Quickly realized I should take a larger partial, which I did (1/4). But reviewing the trade, I was already beyond 2R an should have taken a much larger partial. Unsure why I missed it. Maybe because I am not use to trading stocks this price or my eyes were too focused on BABA which was setting up and I took a second trade. Either way I missed it and the price retraced. But dropped back down where I could have taken another partial, but didn’t and I S/O at B/E for only a small profit, when it could have been a one and done, if I took a larger partial. BABA had volume earlier than usual. The 50MA-1min was acting as a strong resistance level both in PM and after the open. With a bullish candle it broke through the 50MA and I went long. But I thought my order was not filled. I didn’t see the green triangle and there was nothing in my order or position window. So I clicked buy again and I instantly saw two green triangles. So I thought the price moved so fast my order was split into two when filled. This does happen on BABA. After watching the replay what actually happened is the first order went through. The order was super fast on the order window so it was missed it and the green triangle was displayed only on the 5min chart but not the 1min chart. There was also a second delay showing up in the position window. I was only looking at the 1 min chart and order/position window so I thought the order didn’t go through so I bought again. Then as coincidence would have it the 1min chart showed both orders simultaneous so I thought it was one order. So I was long with 176.50 as my target and 176 as my stop. The price retraced and the same thing happen as yesterday. The price was right on stop level at the end of the candle but was 1R lower at the start at the next candle. Ouch again. I quickly exited the trade thinking it was OK since I did set my shares size a bit small to prepare for bad fills on BABA. Not realizing I had double the shares and took a big hit. BABA dropped bounced and climbed through all the MAs again and I went long with essentially the same setup. This time I was losing a bit of control and went full shares, not giving BABA and slide in price. I did get a good fill with same target but now VWAP as my stop. The price moved up 0.5R where I tried to take a partial and got a bad fill at B/E. The price retraced and I was S/O. Of course the priced popped back right after I S/O. I was feeling almost to the point I was about to go tilt/Hulk and was about to close the platform down and walk away. But to my surprise I recovered quickly and stopped myself from trading more. Since it was the end of the month and I am allowed to look at my P/L. I saw I was down -2R today. Likely my second worse day of the month. Not a good way to end the month. I was surprised at first. Then I looked at the trading log and saw I double bought on the first BABA trade. Which explains the -2R. Score card (live trades). MU BABA BABA 89% 87% 90% What I did good today: My setups were fine. What I am grateful from today? Was able to stop myself, with not much effort, from losing control. What do I need to improve on: I need a big review of data and determine what to do next month.
  5. 1 point
    27/9/19 decent day today, stuck to my rules, only did 2 trades even though i planned 3 because my heads in a weird place after some news so feel to stop while im up. 2 trades: 1 winner (ORB) 1 loser (descending triangle) Trade 1:WFC did the thing i like when it has no volume for the first minute then picks a direction, i missed the first move so waited for the 5 min ORB pullback to at least half the previous 5 min candle and got in for a great trade and got 4 Rs. Trade 2: lower lows on ROKU with a clear resistance line, triied to get in near the resistance but the spread was bad, it broke the support and didnt carry on so i shouldve got out at b/e but held then panicked and made a hotkey mistake but still only just over 1 R loss.
  6. 1 point
    27 Sep 2019 I saw 2 trades at around 10:30pm. Managed to get in one and didn't for another. 1) CTRP - I LONG the trade with my several thoughts in mind At the 5 min chart, I thought I saw a bull flag and seems like the stock is pulling back Saw some big buys coming in green and seems like the stock is going to take off. Eventually it didn't and I got stopped out from this trade. 2) ROKU - I saw it retracing back to the VWAP (serve as a support) and set a limit order at 100.2 for a better entry and risk reward. In the end, the stock took off without me. If not I will be able to get at least 80 cents profit for this trade. Today I am in Red. Hope I will do better next week.
  7. 1 point
    September 27, 2019 - Missed this journal when doing my weekly review and notice numbers were not adding up, so I inputted the correct sample set results Sample Set Results, S P G E E 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 September 30, 2019. - SIM Day I got around 5 ½ hours of sleep. When I woke up I made the decision that if I could get through my notecards without getting confused or mixed up than I would consider trading live. Well that didn’t happen, so I decided to trade Sim. After the last couple of weeks I been struggling with the hesitation on my new strategy, so today I decided that if my setup was there and I could get an entry using a limit order at the break of the 5 minute that I would take them all. Additionally, I wanted to have some fun at the open so I decided to trade any setup I saw regardless if it was within my playbook. I wanted to have fun at the open today. In all I took 5 trades, at one point I was in three different trades at once all with range and limit orders. My first trade was on $CCL and my last exit at the end of the day when I had to go to a meeting was $CCL. I held it from 9:40 to 3:03. It chopped all day in between my stop and 1R out. Yes I had a huge stop, way too big. Overall, I had a fun day and I needed it and I got some valuable reps on entering limit orders for my new strategy. Although I only got 2 entries, I think I put in at least 5 orders that just didn’t get filled because the stock didn’t break the entry point and instead made a new high/low causing me to cancel the order.
  8. 1 point
    hi Mark - hope you are doing good and making lots of trading money.
  9. 1 point
    26.Sep.19 Green day. +2r. Traded $CCL at the open. Only one trade, switched to SIM after that. Watchlist: $SQ, $RAD, $BIDU, $CCL Trade1: $CCL. Gapped down due to poor guidance on earnings. Also was selling into the open. Looking for Rising Devil setup. Shorted on the 2nd candle after the daily level was broken. Partialed at the low of the candles. After the Doji appeared on 2min and the next candle opened higher, I got out completely. I was ready to play VWAP pullback short, if the setup occured. It did, but the price dumped too fast, and I didn't want to chase it. Would have been another nice 3r. Good: One good trade. Didn't chase the entry on VWAP pullback short. Improvement: I didn't use Kyle's hotkey and went with a very small share size. Would have been nicer to have gone with full size. But I am happy overall.
  10. 1 point
    Thursday 9/26/2019 I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. I took 3 live trades this morning with AAPL and BABA So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, ROKU and SQ on my 5min ORB watchlist. I had a long bias on BABA. But I didn’t know what to make of AAPL. BABA had volume immediately after the open and I went long 10 seconds after the open just on momentum. Though the price sat for a few seconds before I clicked my order there was a 0.7R slide move up in price between the order and the fill. Not surprising for BABA but it took away my one and done. So I was long with the 178.70 daily level as my target and there was no really good stop so I used VWAP and went a little light on the shares. I took two very small partials and was waiting for the price to reach 2R. But 15cents shy of 2R the price retraced and I stopped right at B/E. Which isn’t easy to do on BABA. Though my plan is to take small partials until I reach 2R, this close to the open, and without a candle signal, I should have been in scalping mode and my partials should have been at least 1/3 and ½ shares (or even all out at 1.5R) not 1/8 and 1/8. I left a bit of money on the table here. I then took a trade with AAPL, but to make things easier to journal I will first document my next BABA trade. I was allowed to take 3 trades after my two small wins today. Though I wish I stopped at two trades. BABA’s price dropped and I took a long when it bounced off of VWAP. Not sure why but I did not give BABA the usual share size slack due to poor fills as usual. So as usual I got a bad fill and thus I had too many shares. Actually, I had the most shares ever with BABA. So I was long with the HOTD was my target and VWAP as my stop. Even with the bad fill (which is just a normal fill with BABA) I still had R/R~2. But my risk was now 1.5R. I did take a partial, but again it was only 1/8 shares so my risk was still high. The price retraced and tested my stop twice. Then the 2nd 1min candle finished just above my stop, but the 3rd 1min candle opened a whole R lower!! I instantly exited, but took about a -2.2R loss. Ouch. I so seldomly take a third trade so it hurts that I took such a big loss. Made a green day very red. Between the two BABA trades I took one AAPL trade. The first 1min candle was a bit indecisive. The 2nd candle was a nice reverse hammer so I went long when the 3rd candle went red. My target was 218.50 with VWAP as my stop. Same thing happen as my BABA trade. I took two small partials and waited for the third partial which would be at 2R. Then I would sell a large share size. The price didn’t make it and I exited right at B/E. If I let it go another penny it would have made it to my 2R. But, I thought, this was a well executed trade. Score card (live trades). BABA AAPL BABA 90% 95% 83% What I did good today: Took 3 good setups. What I am grateful from today? -1.5R isn’t too bad for the day after having that disaster trade. What do I need to improve on: I knew I had a bad fill and the wrong share size. There was no big internal conflict to exit the trade or reduce my share size. I just didn’t think of it. There is NO instinct at all to do the right thing in a losing or incorrect trade. I have notes on my computer and I read my trading plan (which this is clearly stated) and I still just don’t think of it. I really need to change this. There is only one way and that’s a ton of visualization. Mentally place yourself in a trade that has gone wrong and manage it correctly. Then a different trade, etc…. I need to do this over and over until the instinct is formed. I read the results of a recent Van K. Tharp Super Trader graduation class. Their average winner was 1.2R. But their average loser was 0.6R. So they still have their winners twice the size of their losers. So they are actually making their money keeping the losers small, not trying to get the big winner. Their win% was just under 50%. That’s really the trick. Keep the losers small. The winners don’t need to be that spectacular. All I visualize when I think of trading is that big win of the week. But what I really need to think of is that well managed small loser of the day!
  11. 1 point
    9-26-19 Woke at 7:50 with 4.5 hours sleep.... Feel ok but a bit groggy.... SSS and a coffee..... PAT: NO ROKU...... Think about my trend trades when I am in them, I am mismanaging them. I do tend to take some off in times where it was a clear signal to add on.... I will not trade in the first 5min.... Mute the chat for the first 15min as it gives me a bit of anxiety and I believe leads me to less than Ideal trades..... Pre Market Routine: Read a bit..... Did a little stretching and breathing exercises for a Calm beginning Notes: Any 5min ORBs will be in SIM of SIM...... then only if it is a A+ setup will I go Live SIM at 10min ORBs and beyond...... CCL PB#1........ 5min ORBD, with ABCD on the 1min (B setup)..... I did not wait for better confirmation on the ABCD and entered before it made a new low on the 1min........ got stopped out above C.... -44.00 MO PB#1..... 5min ORB with ABCD on 1 and 2min, breaking the 50ma on the 5 and 15min (B setup).... because the 50ma is a strong resistance on the 5 and 15min..... In half size and added at more confirmation of the break of the 50ma.... Partial at 1R then out at BE.... I did end up liking this trade for more of a B+ - A setup but would have still taken this in SIM of SIM because of the 5min ORB.... +26.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I will make this my break of SIM and Live account for my information.... but as I have been doing I will still use my P&L for all trades since I do not have a way to separate them yet....... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RAD PB#1 (A+ setup) turned into PB#3.(A+ setup)..... 10min ORB with a very clear ABCD on the 1 and 2min, All moving AVGs below with a Harmonious Charts on top of profit beats in the news with a large Short Float the shorts should get squeezed.... I went in for 1/2 size then immediately added to full share size and again added to 1.5 share size when the L2 had lots of pretty good size asks the RR was 2/1 where my stop was C and target was 9.33 a daily level..... Took some profits on the way up at 1.5R and 2R, held on through the consolidation (was holding for BE) then the very clear ABCD formed on both the 1 and 2min and again with L2 sending all the right signals added back in to a full share size this time with a RR of 4/1 again took profits at 2R, 3R twice and 4R and then all out once it made a new low on the 5 and 15min and this was my Reason2Exit.... +260.55 Cons: I only feel like I jumped the gun a bit on the CCL trade but not a terrible thing as these are the entries that can make a huge difference to the Risk..... Pros: I held on and did not take trades out of anxiety..... I did keep the volume muted for the first 15min which I believe helped me focus..... Went in with force when I felt my setup was A+...... Felt Like I managed this trade well and did not trade my P&L Favorite Trade: RAD Notes: Read and reread this day for what I need to do on a daily basis..... R = 50.00: +242.55
  12. 1 point
    Wednesday 9/25/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. I took 1 live trade this morning with AAPL and 2 SIM trades with NKE and BABA So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, ROKU and NKE on my 5min ORB watchlist. First time since I went live I did not give AMD a chart. I had a long bias on both AAPL and BABA. AAPL already made a nice hammer in the PM (on the daily chart) and BABA was bouncing from the big drops recently. As usual the volume arrives on BABA on the 2nd minute, so my attention at the open was on AAPL. Volume arrived quickly and AAPL made a nice hammer and I went long when it broke the HOPM. My target was the 219.82 and my stop at 218.50 which is also the bottom of the candle. It popped so fast that my first partial profit was correct at the 219.30 daily level. I took another at 219.50 and then I noticed I am at 2R so I took another partial. But I am supposed to take a large partial at 2R and instead I took a small partial because I really thought it was goung to reach my target. The price dropped quickly and I S/O near B/E. Too bad I took only small partials. I assume I only made about +1R. I really didn’t want to risk another flat day so I switched to SIM and took 2 winning SIM trades. Especially a big winner on BABA. I added the charts below. A 1min ORBU on NKE A 2min ORBU on BABA Score card (live trades). AAPL 93% What I did good today: Took good setups and got good entries. What I am grateful from today? It’s good to play it safe and walk away green. What do I need to improve on: To take a big partial profit at 2R. Especially for the scalp-like trades.
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