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05.Aug.19 No Trades today. $SPY was down 4th consecutive day and at 285. Most of the stocks were down. I do not like to trade days like this when almost all the stocks just follow SPY. I'd rather trade SPY but it is not in my price range, so No trades. I had $ALLK (gapup on earnings) on the watchlist, lowfloat, didn't trade well. So I played in SIM and made some good trades in $TWTR and $TSN, not journaling them here.

Monday August 5th, 2019 Sleep: 7 hours. Mood: good, ready to trade. I spent a couple hours reviewing all of my July trades and i'm working on making a longer post this week but from my initial pass it looks like when i'm wrong, i'm immediately wrong and when i'm right, i'm catching a nice 3-4R move. i looked in to scaling out more but only on two or three trades would that have made sense last month. Goal moving forward is to stick to my 3R range orders and just try and make sure i'm taking setups that i'm comfortable with and getting good entries. Giving up on the momentum trades again for now, they're just not in my wheelhouse. First trade of the day was in TWTR. almost took it short on the new 5min low at 10 but it wasn't a good R/R to the LOTD so i held out. played this as an MA trend plus reverse ABCD. stop was a new 5min high, got in at the break of the first 2min low after touching the 9MA on the 2min chart. Almost got stopped out, it came within 4 cents of my stop but then it started making a descending wedge and once it broke lower, it hit my 3R profit target. GOOD: stuck with my trade, went according to plan RFI: could have got a better entry MOOD: good CONSISTENT: yes. What i did good today: took one good trade What i did bad today: still taking entries at new lows and not on pullbacks What can i do better tomorrow: wait for better entries

Live trading summary for week ending 8/02/19. An unusual week. The first three days I was on a family vacation with spotty WIFI so I didn’t trade even SIM. I traded Thursday but only took one live trade. Friday I did take two trades, which I thought were live but were in SIM. So I only took one live trade this week. So no stats. I increased the risk this week to $30 risk/trade. Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open. MU and FB are marginal at the open. AMD and TSLA are possibilities at the open. But I don’t know TSLA well, I will need to trade that stock in SIM or half share size first, to get to understand its personality. AMD’s personality has changed at the open since the 2 months ago when I use to trade the stock. So I will need to keep share size small. Here is my plan for this week: Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Both MU and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data. Keep $30 risk per trade. Choose TSLA or AMD to be the second focus at the open based on PM data. Go small share size or even SIM on TSLA until you better understand the personalities. Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Thanks for sharing

5/8/19 feeling good today, decent sleep and second time back at the gym this morning so im feeling energetic and positive, hoping for another clear-headed day like friday. This is an odd market day, everything selling off so going to keep share sizes smaller. a mixed day finished just in the red. Trade 1: stopped out on a 5 min ORB Trade 2: BP engulfed the previous 5 min candle with volume but missed the bulk of the move and stopped out. Trade 3: MU decreased with volume, got in on a pull back but stopped out. if i was live i think id stop after 3 losses in a row because i get frustrated. Trade 4: think i revenge traded this/saw it rejected VWAP but stopped out again. Trade 5: CARS bounced at VWAP so went long and got a good scalp, spread was bad or price was moving too fast so didnt get as much as i should Trade 6: MU making lower lows/highs so went short on a pullback but stopped out near VWAP Trade 7: thought SQ had lost VWAP but stopped out. Trade 8: TWTR was struggling at a support level so went long for a reversal. lost hope when it kept holding the 20 EMA on the 1 so switched my position and the support broke so got a nice trade. Trade 9: moving average cross so went long on a pullback for a nice scalp on NVDA

Monday 8/05/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. Quite disappointed in my trading today. When the markets are quiet I can barely focus on two stocks at the open. I usually concentrate on the one I like more at the open and glance at the other in case of a really good setup. Today was a volatile open and one of my focuses was AMD which I haven’t focused on in awhile. So today would be a very bad day for focusing on two stocks at once, but that is what I did. If I chose either AAPL or AMD I would have likely had a good trade. But by focusing on both I ruined both trades. Everything was gapping down. I did not have a bias on AAPL, though I was short bias on AMD due to very little resistance levels below its current price. I really liked that AMD gapped up the minutes before the open. This made me even more short biased. The price was respecting the 50MA-1min, so I was going short if it broke it. I had no idea I took a trade on AMD 5 seconds after the open. I knew it was close to the open, but until I watched the recording is when I realized how fast I took the trade. I did take it half shares because it was close to the open. My target was the low of premarket and my stop was the 28.25 daily level that it showed respect for already. Though R/R ~2 we are talking pennies here with a lot of slippage, so the R/R really was not that good. But I was hoping for a big drop if it broke the low of PM. Plus over 1 million shares traded in 5 seconds. Wow! The chart when I took the trade. I did make mistakes with the partials. I have to admit I seldom look at the spread with AMD I always assume it’s tight. So when the price dropped 8 cents I tool a partial which filled at almost B/E. So I looked and there was a 7 cent spread. So I waited for the spread to close to 1 cent and took another partial and got filled near B/E again. This flustered me a bit. Now looking at the recording I just happen to catch an upward spike, which happens a lot at the open. Then the price dropped to my target. I took another partial. Not the best fill but at least not at B/E. But I made the mistake of taking a small partial. I am at my target now, so why did I not take a large partial? Then the worse of my mistakes. I started eyeing AAPL and seeing a really good setup. But I was still in the AMD trade. The AMD price started to go against me and the plan was to use VWAP as my stop. But I was looking for an excuse to get out. So as soon as it “looked” like it was going to break VWAP, I got out. The moment I did the price went back in my favor and would have been a good trade. So by not focusing on one stock I ruined the trade. The entire trade (sorry about the image quality): So I was really liking the setup on AAPL and was focusing on it more than AMD, which was really poor trade management. So I bailed early on AMD but the entry on AAPL had already passed. If I was just watching APPL I would have gone long with the strong hammer when it broke VWAP. Instead I chased it and took it the moment I exited the AMD trade. The R/R was now bad. To make things worse I took a full share size which limits my stop to 197.70 daily level instead of the better 197.50 level. The price instantly went against me the moment I entered the trade and I was stopped out at my shortened stop level. If I took the correct share size I would not have been stopped out as it bounced from 197.50 and went higher all the way to my target at the 200MA-1min. Its been a couple of months since I have taken this bad of a trade. What it looked like when I took the trade: The entire trade: After the AAPL debacle I switched my platform to SIM. I saw AMD breaking the low of premarket again and L2 had some large bids so I shorted. VWAP was my stop again and honestly I didn’t have a target since there were no levels below. This is something I would only take on SIM. But as soon as I took the trade I realized I forgot to click the watchlist again so the trade was still live. I wanted to get out, but the price went in my favor quickly. Again I took a small partial instead of exiting or a large partial since this trade is a mistake. Then got out at B/E. If I never bailed out early on the first trade I would have had a 30 cent move. I then took three SIM trades and was stopped out on each one. That didn’t help my confidence. Score Card AMD AAPL AMD 80% 65% 87% What I did good today: I kept my losses to -1R How did I challenge myself today? Traded AMD, first time in awhile. What can I do better: Should concentrate on only one stock if there is a volatile open. Don’t look around at other charts for a next trade, while in the middle of a trade. Don’t leave a trade early to take another trade.

8-5-19 Up at 7:30 felt rested. SSS and coffee TSN took it long twice and short once. Pretty disgusted that I did not realize the spread was 28 cents. 1st took it long and thought I took some profit should have stopped at BE since IO did take profit but let a winning trade lose money. 2nd I did see the bounce off VWAP and took my eyes off of it for too long and missed my profit. I got pissed and then took it short for a mini Hulk and got stopped out again. +SBUX 94.27 got stopped out 94.14 which was below the 20MA +NUGT 37.11 partialed at 37.25, 37.38 and stopped at 37.08 (This was my only focused trade I took) +TVIX I misread a reversal on the 1min and stopped myself early from fear of previous trades. If I would have stuck with my plan of a stop below VWAP I at least would not have lost money on this one Came back after a rest and I found NUGT doing a reversal (a little bit late) which I did not think was too late but only cuts down on my profit.... +NUGT 37.04 S/ below 9 36.84 T/ 37.44 Partialed out at 37.30, 37.54, 37.74 and all out at 37.32 ..... I moved my stop to BE on the first partial then to 37.30 on second partial and my final stop was below the 9 . I will start putting in my pros and cons of the day along with notes to myself when needed Overall: this was a net loss day which was mostly due to my blowup early on TSN which ended up being -10R (WOW) Pros: even though I hulked on TSN I did stick with my stop losses on all trades and had a R/R in my plan Cons: after my second trade on TSN when I realized my mistake of the very large spread I let it get to me and was taking trades out of frustration. Note to Self: pay attention to the spreads ........ if I feel frustrated leave and come back later or another day...... I also need to trust myself I did not take a couple trades as I was listening to the chat.... As the pros are always telling us to trade your own style..... I feel like I have been better at 10:30am and on, maybe due to feeling more awake from my 4 hour sleeps

Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 6 Trading risk is defined objectively as the variability of performance of invested funds that go up and down in value. Better to define risk as the worst case loss in a trade which we label “R”. The big message: YOU MUST MAKE IT OK TO LOSE, IF YOU WANT TO WIN. Taking losses goes against our cultural training. A loser is not respected. The loser feels inferior. If you are unable to lose, you will lose. The “Loss Trap”. Chapter 7 There are at least 5 factors that are involved with the loss trap. 1) Framing. Framing guards are used to hide the loss from the trader. A) The loss is not a loss. B) the percentage frame. c) The criterion frame. 2) Need to explain. Trader uses superstition and social confirmation to relieve the anxiety. 3) Overconfidence. Most traders rather be right than make money. 4) Probability. We prefer the unwise gamble of holding onto the losing trade, than exited the certainty of the sure loss. 5) Commitment. When traders commit themselves to a position, their rational plans become fuzzy at the moment of commitment. Framing of our losses is another behavior we do so we won’t feel so bad about our losses. Like calling our losses a tax write off. We also like to think in percentages. Many of us would drive across town to save $5 on a $20 piece of clothing. But we would not think of driving across town to save that $5 on a $500 appliance. Compare these two gambles: Bet A: A 90% chance to win $400 and a 10% chance to lose $200 Bet B: A 30% chance to win $1600 and a 70% chance to lose $200. So of course I did the math before deciding and I see both bets are equivalent. But as the book later said, it predicted me correctly and I chose Bet A because the odds of winning something is higher. Then you are asked to consider if someone offered you to sell one of these bets for $250 which would you sell. The book says most would sell Bet A since the $1600 possible win in Bet B gives it more “value”. The course then asks for you to look at 25 different charts of actual stocks. Then predict where these stocks would be in 1 month and 5 months (up, down or unchanged). Thus you make 50 predictions. Then you rate each prediction on this scale: 0.33 I don't have a clue 0.5 Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it 0.65 I might bet on it 0.8 I would bet on it 0.9 A good bet After you make your predictions you check the appendix for accuracy. I was ~40% accurate which was about the same as the author. But, accuracy was not the point of the exercise. Instead it was to show the lack of correlation from your confidence rating and the actual result. Unless you are one of the few who actually have correlated data from your confidence rating and the result, then you shouldn’t change your share size based on your confidence level. Use a consistent R that is within your comfort level and optimized for the type of setup you are using. It should not be changed on the fly. They ask you to split all you predictions into 5 groups (highest confidence, next highest, etc.). Then compare that confidence rating with the actual accuracy to see the lack of correlation. Below are my results: Group Confidence Level Accuracy 0.87 0.3 0.74 0.6 0.65 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.364 0.5 Actually the middle three tiers actually correlate well. The top and bottom tier really show the lack of trust I should have in position sizing due to confidence level. I am using fixed risk in my trading anyway, but I always assumed with experience I would start changing my risk based on my confidence. I am now thinking I should never trade that way. When people believe something they manage to find evidence to support their belief. More information does not increase the accuracy of expert prediction, just the confidence in his/her predictions. We weight probability more at the extremes. An increase from 0% (no chance) to 5% (some chance) is huge, but an increase from 30% to 35% is small. Same from believing that the increase from 95% chance to 100% is large. That is why most of us would prefer a sure profit of $900 than a 95% chance of a $1000 profit. The same goes with risk aversion. Most of us would choose a 95% chance of losing $1000 than a sure loss of $900. Both these decisions go against the fundamental law of trading. By choosing the sure win, you are not letting your winners run. But not picking the sure loss you are letting your losers run. If you make the first decision 100 times on trades and the second decision 100 times, you will have a loss of -$5000. If you go against your natural inclination over the next and choose the better profit/risk you would gain $5000 in the next 200 trades. The cost of backing out at the moment of commitment (enter a trade) is small monetarily, but large psychologically. Time starts to go by faster and fears seem much larger.

Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 5 In order to duplicate successful trading, you need to adequately perform all the tasks that are part of that success. This has been determined to be 15 different tasks. Preparation tasks: Developing self-insight. Self-insight allows one to capitalize on strengths and overcome weaknesses. Goal setting is a very important part of self-insight. If you have trouble with self-esteem, then you will probably transfer that issue to being unable to take market losses. Developing a low-risk game plan. A trading mistake means not following your rules. One must have written rules. If you don’t have rules, everything you do is a mistake. Top Trading Tasks: 1) Daily Self-Analysis. Trading involves human performance and that performance can be objectively measured in terms of profits and losses. You cannot hide from your performance record. Determine how you feel before each trading day and give yourself a rating. Check for correlation to your trading, then trade or not trade accordingly. Also perform a dialogue with yourself, this will be taught later in the course. Are there any internal conflicts? If so correct them before you trade. The optimal state for self-analysis: be open and honest, be thorough, be very aware. 2) Daily Mental Rehearsal. Mental rehearsal is how one prevents mistakes. You need to anticipate what can go wrong and rehearse it so that you avoid mistakes when your brain is under the reduced capacity of stress. There are two types of mental rehearsal. First part is to develop a worst case contingency plan as part of your came plan for trading. The second type of mental disaster is to ask yourself “what may cause me to make a major mistake in my trading today and break my rules?” 3) Focus and Intention. You attract to yourself what you think about. This is done through internal guidance. As you establish a strong relationship with your internal guidance, it will tend to give you what you ask for as long as it is in your best interest. Need laser focus on what you want. 4) Developing a low risk idea. A low risk idea is an idea with a positive expectancy that’s traded at an exposure level that allows you to survive the worst possible contingency in the short run so that you can achieve the long-term expectancy of the system. All of the research and thinking should be done before the trade occurs. You must have predetermined risk before you enter a trade. 5) Stalking. The essence of “stalking” is to find the best possible price for entry. Waiting for the right moment will save you money and lower your overall risk. Jump down to a lower time frame to find a better entry signal. Opportunity will come to you if you are patient and wait for it. When you are stalking you need into the flow of the market. 6) Action. All the strategy work should be done ahead of time so that you don’t need to think about what you should do. The action should be a total commitment (with no thought what so ever) to getting it done (entering the position). See the signal, recognize that it is familiar, feel good about it and act without question. 7) Monitoring. Which is two subtasks. Detailed monitoring involves paying detailed attention to the pulse of the market while getting ready to take action (adding, aborting or taking profits). The trader should be alert, vigilant and suspicious. Overview monitoring occurs when the trade is running in your favor and the trader can step back and monitor. The worse mistake a trader can make during the monitoring phase is to rationalize and distort data according to expectations. The purpose of monitoring the market is to pay attention to market signals. 8] Abort. There are two action like stages, that occur after the monitoring. These stages are “abort” and “take profits. In executing trades, the golden rule of trading, cut your losses short and let your profits run, comes into play. Controlling risk involves aborting and taking profits under the appropriate conditions. Three important beliefs about aborting. If the market goes against you, then that is the most critical time to get out. When the original reason for a trade no longer exists, get out. And when you are uncertain, get out. When time is against you, you probably should be in a better position, so get out. Your primary advantage to trading is that at any time you don’t have to be in the market. You can be picky. Use that advantage. 9) Take Profits. There are many more reasons to exit a trade than there are for an entry, so most good traders have multiple exits. If the reason for your trade no longer applies, then take profits. Take profits if your objective has been reached. Take profits if a climatic move in your favor. 10) Daily Debriefing. This is critical to correcting mistakes and making sure you don’t repeat them. A trading mistake means not following your rules. First, avoid self-recrimination. Instead, resolve not to repeat that mistake again. Second, replay the trade in your mind. Prior to the mistake you reached a choice point. Third, mentally go back to that choice point and review your options. Fourth, for each possible option, determine what outcome would have been if you had taken it. Fifth, once you have found at least three options with favorable outcomes, mentally rehearse them. Summarize the mistakes and new choices in writing (journal). 11) Show gratitude for what went right today. Acknowledge what went well and be grateful for it. This could mean you are grateful for a losing trade that taught you something valuable. Or that you didn’t break your rules today. Make a list. You will be surprised the positive effect it will have on your trading. Regular gratitude will reinforce your ability to use the Law of Attraction to increase your trading profits. 12) Periodic review. Markets change and you change. You need to review and check if your rules are still appropriate for the current market. If you make several trades a day you should review once a month. If you only take a trade three or four times a week, then review each quarter. Also, drawdowns and a certain number of losses should trigger a review, system your system may have become obsolete. Current market conditions are reported regularly in Tharp’s Thoughts. 13) Being out of the market. This is the most important part of the model. Top traders who last lead well-balanced lives. You have certain needs. If you don’t take care of them outside the market you will try and satisfy them in the market. That will cause losses in the long run.

Hi Vikram! I watched your interview last night -- thanks so much for sharing your experience! Looks like we are neighbors -- I live just outside of Zürich! Tchüss!