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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/22/2019 in all areas
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2 pointsMonday 7/22/2019 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were good. I took one live trade with AAPL. I was focusing on MU and AAPL. MU was in play this morning and back test data says AAPL is trading the well at the open. As usual I created my mental scenarios what I would do depending on possible setups. Then a few minutes before the open both stocks had some activity that threw out my scenarios. I quickly created new ones. One of the scenarios was if AAPL powered through all the levels (203.97 daily level, 200MA-5min, $204, and the 204.06 premarket level) quickly with high volume and showed respect to at least one of them I would go long. I also like there was a 60c gap in levels if it broke through the first obstacle. The price ran through the first 3 levels then bounced off the 204.06 premarket level and retraced. Then on the second try broke through and I went long. My target was the 204.93 premarket level. My stop out is usually VWAP, but I already planned to give this trade a larger stop since it will probably occur very near the open. So my stop out was the 50MA-1min, making the R/R ~2. I knew I had to take a partial at the 204.33 daily level. Then I partialled too many times as usual, but my first 3 partials were small share size since SPY was looking strong at that time. I exited where I did, mostly due to having very few shares left. A few seconds after I exited the price had a large pop. In hind-sight of course the large S/O was unnecessary, but I think I did the right thing. It is too bad it made a +2.1R trade into a +1.3R. What the chart looked like when I took the trade: The complete trade: Score card for my live trade. What I did good today: Changed my trading plan, due to change in market conditions, just a couple of minutes before the open. How did I challenge myself today? Used smaller partialling size. What I did bad today: Should have held on the last few shares longer. There was no signal to get out yet. What can I do better: Hold on to that last few shares for a sign to exit.
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1 pointHey BBT family! On Thursday (7/11) and Friday (7/12) you might have noticed on your platform some orders were routed via ARCA instead of LAMP. Even though you send the order correctly using LIMIT or MARKET as your route, the system was having some issues and caused this mistake to happen. Please review your statement with CMEG for Thursday (7//11) and Friday (7/12) to make sure everything looks correct with the route LAMP and with the new commission structure for BBT members. If you do have some orders that were transacted with ARCA and commission fee of $3.95, you can email me your [email protected] just full name and I will add you to the list of names we are sending to CMEG so they can fix the issue accordingly. You can also work with CMEG directly, and if you have already emailed them about the issue they will address. CMEG is aware of this issue and is addressing it to prevent it from happening and they are committed to adjusting all statements that were charged incorrectly. Thank you all!
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1 pointMonday July 22nd, 2019 Sleep: 7 hours. Mood: good, ready to trade. first trade was an ORBU in MU. got in right at the break of the body of the first 5min candle. set my stop loss for the VWAP. got stopped out. i need to stop getting in to these trades that late. need to get in on pullbacks on the 2min. it wouldn't have worked either way but i've been getting in when it's too extended and just getting burned. GOOD: got out at stop RFI: should have just past on this trade MOOD: frustrated. CONSISTENT: yes last trade of the day was a wedge/ hoping for a break of the LOTD in $MU that didn't work. it did break the LOTD but had no follow through and got stopped out. GOOD: got out at stop RFI: i need to wait for confirmation of the move MOOD: frustrated. so tired of being wrong so often, it is extremely frustrating CONSISTENT: yes What i did good today: stuck to my stops What i did bad today: not taking good setups at supports. being wrong way too often. What can i do better tomorrow: no idea, i need to regroup and look back on my past trades and see what i can do to improve my accuracy. I don't know what to do, i've been wrong 6 out of my last 7 trades and it's really frustrating to keep getting stopped out.
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1 pointThat sounds like a great plan, looking forward to the results!
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1 point19.Jul.19 Red Day. It's a mixed day today. I have had some very good trades, but also Hulked out today. Watchlist: $MU, $AMRN, $MSFT, $FCX, $CHWY. Trade1: $MU Took conventional ORB and got stopped out. This has been failing me. I should stick to my Pullback ORB - Breakout entry setup. Trade2: $AMRN. This is my Best trade today. Not only because of the setup, but because, I didn't manage this setup well yesterday, but today was almost perfect. Shooting star reversal at 50MA on 15min. Although I missed half of the move, I stick to my rule to exit completely on a 15min high and i did. Trades3&4: $TSLA was setting up for a Trend trade with HH and HL with 50MA on 1min as Support. I took 2 trades, it missed my target of $257 by 2 pennies, before stopping me out. I think I should start partialing here. Trades 5&6: $TSLA. Took another trade for breakout of flattop. didn't workout. Finally the price bounced after MAs cross and reached $260 before close. Trade 7: $CGC. Took a ascending wedge breakout, that failed. It was a bad setup, with no MA supporting the wedge. Trade 8: $ROKU. Took reversal off 200MA on 5min, price reversed a bit, but dumped with SPY. This was Doublebottom on 1min, but no Double Hammer, which makes it not A+ setup. Trade 9: $ROKU. Later, $ROKU found a bottom and started reversing. Took it long at the MA's cross, and price popped immediately, this was a good trade, although it was Knifecatching reversal. Price dumped for the rest of the day. Trades on $MDLA: Hulk Trading. $MDLA had IPO on Friday along with $AFYA and couple of other stocks. I watched $MDLA thruout the day for an entry as it traded very well. I got one, after the doji at 200MA on 1min (although the MAs are less meaningful on IPO day). This was a good trade. Took another long at Double bottom, and this was good too. My partials were not so good, I kept getting stopped out with good amount of shares. Then I noted the Double bottom Double hammer setup on the 5min. Took long 3 times and partialed. Although this is a good setup to hold long, i didn't want to do that on the IPO day. I felt so confident that 5 of my trades went so well, now I got greedy. My next trade i increased the share size a bit, stopped out, gave most of my profits back. I wanted to get my money back, I went Long again. I didn't respect atleast 2 of my rules on this final trade. I added to my position and didn't respect my stoploss. I Hulked. Finally stopped below 50MA on 1min. Result: I was 7times my max loss, due to my last 2 trades. I was so upset with myself and my emotions yesterday, i didn't journal. Today, retrospectively, I think I am fine. This had to happen at some point of time, I am kinda happy it happened now and it wasn't a costly lesson. Because my R is very small. Attaching the 15min chart of $MDLA also, to indicate where it failed to form the $ABCD pattern. Good: $AMRN trade was very good. Even $MDLA, i traded well most part. After my final loss on $MDLA, I closed the DAS platform went out for dinner with my family. Just wanted to take my focus away from Trading. Improvement: My partials need improvement. Either I don't take partial ($TSLA at $257) or I leave too much to go to Stoploss ($MDLA). I need to find a balance. Conventional ORBs not working again. Need to focus on the Pullback ORB breakout entry setup. Hulk day on Friday. Hoping for a normal session coming Monday. Psychologically, it is very difficult to accept a Loss (and lose most/all the profit) after few Wins, than accepting a Loss on your first trade. By analogy, If I get knocked down in the first round it is OK, but if I have my opponent on the mat, but he comes back to beat me, then I am furious and want revenge. That's what I saw myself doing on Friday. That's the lesson I take from it.
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1 pointLive trading summary for week ending 7/19/19 and data set analysis. Traded full share size ($25 risk/trade) all week as I slowly get myself back up to speed after a painful 3 days of terrible trading at the end of June. So first week of July I traded SIM only, then last week at half shares. My score card for the week was a bit disappointing at 85% since I made 2 low score trades this week. I only had 6 live trades this week so that has a big impact. The weeks win% was also OK at 50%. I do like I was green for the week with 50% win-rate. It’s a nice confirmation my winners are bigger than my losers. I took a look at my 1min/2min ORB setup for the last four months using the Van Tharp method of system quality. The quality is determined by the mean of the data set (in R) divided by the standard deviation (also in R). Using this guideline my system has a disappointing “poor, but tradable” quality. Looking at the data set I noticed I have 5 really bad trades. I didn’t break the rules, but I tried new things that should be tried on SIM first. All the trades were -2R losers. Out of curiosity if they were normal stop outs at -1R, my system would have had “good” quality rating. Though I have made quite a few poor trades in the last 5 weeks of live trading, I do not have any of the really stupid trades discussed above. Just looking at the data set for the last 5 weeks the system has an “excellent” quality rating. This just shows that lots of -1R stop outs really have little effect on your profitability. They are normal. It’s the stupid -2R mistakes that destroy your profitability. I only take 1 or 2 trades a day. So a stupid trade, once every two weeks, really impacts my trading. From the 5 bad trades, 3 trades I was adding to a winning trade that reversed on me and I didn’t know where to stop out with the added risk. One trade was a double down which I did stop at my plan level. The 5th trade was the setup looked so perfect I doubled my shares to be stopped out quite quickly. Thus, I shouldn’t add to my trades and I need to stick to the planned risk/trade. I traded almost entirely MU and AAPL this week with one unsuccessful trade on FB. The trade with FB was just to make sure I don’t get addicted to trading AAPL again. I traded a few 5/10/15min ORBs on SIM with only one winner. I have lots of work to do on those. Back test data shows AAPL in play. Both MU and FB had marginal weeks and may no longer be in play at the open. TSLA is starting to become in play at the open, but I will need to trade that stock in SIM first, to get to understand its personality. Here is my plan for this week: Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Both MU and FB are marginal. They should be secondary focuses. Choose order based on premarket and previous day action. Stay at $25 risk per trade. Don’t add to any trade, even winners.