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19.Jul.19 Red Day. It's a mixed day today. I have had some very good trades, but also Hulked out today. Watchlist: $MU, $AMRN, $MSFT, $FCX, $CHWY. Trade1: $MU Took conventional ORB and got stopped out. This has been failing me. I should stick to my Pullback ORB - Breakout entry setup. Trade2: $AMRN. This is my Best trade today. Not only because of the setup, but because, I didn't manage this setup well yesterday, but today was almost perfect. Shooting star reversal at 50MA on 15min. Although I missed half of the move, I stick to my rule to exit completely on a 15min high and i did. Trades3&4: $TSLA was setting up for a Trend trade with HH and HL with 50MA on 1min as Support. I took 2 trades, it missed my target of $257 by 2 pennies, before stopping me out. I think I should start partialing here. Trades 5&6: $TSLA. Took another trade for breakout of flattop. didn't workout. Finally the price bounced after MAs cross and reached $260 before close. Trade 7: $CGC. Took a ascending wedge breakout, that failed. It was a bad setup, with no MA supporting the wedge. Trade 8: $ROKU. Took reversal off 200MA on 5min, price reversed a bit, but dumped with SPY. This was Doublebottom on 1min, but no Double Hammer, which makes it not A+ setup. Trade 9: $ROKU. Later, $ROKU found a bottom and started reversing. Took it long at the MA's cross, and price popped immediately, this was a good trade, although it was Knifecatching reversal. Price dumped for the rest of the day. Trades on $MDLA: Hulk Trading. $MDLA had IPO on Friday along with $AFYA and couple of other stocks. I watched $MDLA thruout the day for an entry as it traded very well. I got one, after the doji at 200MA on 1min (although the MAs are less meaningful on IPO day). This was a good trade. Took another long at Double bottom, and this was good too. My partials were not so good, I kept getting stopped out with good amount of shares. Then I noted the Double bottom Double hammer setup on the 5min. Took long 3 times and partialed. Although this is a good setup to hold long, i didn't want to do that on the IPO day. I felt so confident that 5 of my trades went so well, now I got greedy. My next trade i increased the share size a bit, stopped out, gave most of my profits back. I wanted to get my money back, I went Long again. I didn't respect atleast 2 of my rules on this final trade. I added to my position and didn't respect my stoploss. I Hulked. Finally stopped below 50MA on 1min. Result: I was 7times my max loss, due to my last 2 trades. I was so upset with myself and my emotions yesterday, i didn't journal. Today, retrospectively, I think I am fine. This had to happen at some point of time, I am kinda happy it happened now and it wasn't a costly lesson. Because my R is very small. Attaching the 15min chart of $MDLA also, to indicate where it failed to form the $ABCD pattern. Good: $AMRN trade was very good. Even $MDLA, i traded well most part. After my final loss on $MDLA, I closed the DAS platform went out for dinner with my family. Just wanted to take my focus away from Trading. Improvement: My partials need improvement. Either I don't take partial ($TSLA at $257) or I leave too much to go to Stoploss ($MDLA). I need to find a balance. Conventional ORBs not working again. Need to focus on the Pullback ORB breakout entry setup. Hulk day on Friday. Hoping for a normal session coming Monday. Psychologically, it is very difficult to accept a Loss (and lose most/all the profit) after few Wins, than accepting a Loss on your first trade. By analogy, If I get knocked down in the first round it is OK, but if I have my opponent on the mat, but he comes back to beat me, then I am furious and want revenge. That's what I saw myself doing on Friday. That's the lesson I take from it.

hi JD, thank you for the advice! i did watch that video a couple days back and i have giving some thought to consequences in the past but i never thought of one that was painful enough to work. like in the past i would go back to sim if i broke a rule but it wasn't enough pain to stop me from breaking my rules. I've been brainstorming about this with my wife and I've decided that i'll give up video games for two weeks if i let a trade go past my stop. I play games everyday so this one would be sufficiently painful and allows me to trade live even if i break rules. i also removed the single trade auto stop from my das platform because it's not consistent enough and when the stock approached my stop in the past i would just let the auto stop get it instead of me and that's not really taking responsibility for getting out of the trade. we will see how it goes!

Let's talk AUD. From multiple points of view, AUD shows mixed signals which I discuss below. Interest rates Since the beginning of 2016, or better say late 2015 when the Federal Reserve started raising rates, there has been a major change in the directional movement of rates on USD and AUD. Chart below clearly shows how RBA slowly cut rates since then while the Fed held on to the 0.5% for a while and then pushed the rate higher for the past 2 years. Such a change in the direction of rate from the two sides clearly has had its impact over the past year and half judging by the continuous drop in AUDUSD price. RBA cut their rate by another 25 basis point last month which could be major bearish signal. But more often than usual, the actions of RBA are well predicted in advanced so we could say the rate cut was already priced in the AUDUSD price. But the rate differential is definitely in favor of USD for the time being. From this viewpoint, the pair should still feel pressure to the downside. COT data Looking at the reaction of the pair to the initial move in early 2016 shows insignificant bearish impact (see chart below). In fact, for another 2 years, the AUD continued to gain strength. Looking at the positions of the large speculators, it was clear at the time (early 2016), they are accumulating any shorts and were net long on AUD. Since the dynamic change around May 2018, they turned into net short and have been short since then. The major development starting around April this year has been some sign of long accumulation for the large specs. However, it was until very recently that they started reducing their short exposure as shown on the chart. It is worth noting that such scenario happened awhile ago in September 2018, but they failed in that attempt and got back into their shorts. It just seems to me that they are giving it another shot and so do I ! Position sizing at the moment Let's look into the data in more details: The only factor worth discussing are the recent dynamics in the long and short positions. The three major supply zones (red shading) indicated on the chart are where the large speculators added major shorts except the very top one which could have some shorts mixed up with the zone right below it. The recent demand zone (green shading) was the point of initiating some longs. It was also the area where almost all shorts started around the above supply zone were closed over the past few weeks. Essentially the supply zone which the price is currently at has almost no shorts. Also, those longs initiated in the demand zone were also all closed in the above supply zone. So what's left? Except for about 11K longs started earlier in May (which are not closed yet), I expect an addition of some longs over the past few days rally in price. The price rally can also be caused by closure of more shorts initiated from the zone near 0.72 which makes the long case stronger. Trade Plan Based on the price dynamics over the past several weeks, the chart below summarizes my trade plan for scaling into a long position. Depending on the COT data this coming Friday, I will start a long trade from near 0.70. Obviously, I will stay in that trade if I see more sign of short closure. Note: the price might end up coming further down to 0.69 area but unless I see more long closure (unlikely) and more short adding, I will stay in the trade. We need to realize that the large specs need to take care of a huge amount of shorts at the current price levels before pulling the price even higher. So, any drop in the price is another opportunity for closing more shorts. And one thing always stay true: they will dump all those shorts and take their relative longs exposure to 100% before price takes off. and that means patience. Once the price shows clear sign of aiming at the top supply zone around 0.72, I expect more short closures and I will add more to my long. This is a game of probability and following the footsteps of these large speculators. These are speculators after all, so I don't expect anything more from them. Just that they are much more informed than us, but they can be wrong and will be wrong from time to time. I will keep you posted here on this thread. Cheers, Zack

Friday 7/19/2019 I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were good. Trading half share size since it is Friday. I took two live trades and three SIM trades today. I was stopped out on all 5 trades. So I did take a hit to my confidence. I will only journal the live trades here. I was focusing on MU and FB. I chose FB mainly due to trading AAPL I find addictive. So when AAPL is no longer in play I have trouble NOT trading it. My first trade was with FB and wasn’t very good. FB created a nice hammer on strong volume. I went long when it broke the $202 and VWAP. The first level above my entry is a strong one at 202.48. If VWAP was my S/O then my R/R is acceptable. But that is too close of a S/O when I take a trade less than a minute from the open. So I chose the 201.60 level and took a small share size to keep the correct risk. But the R/R<1. I was little biased to take the trade because of the empty space of no levels above the 202.48. So it may run if it breaks it. Now thinking rationally I know that doesn’t work for FB. This is not MU and has a different personality. If the next level is too far away there is nothing to pull it there. So not the right idea. I was stopped out 2 minutes later. What the chart looked like when I took the trade: The complete trade: The next trade was with MU. I liked the bearishness of the 5min chart and I watched 3rd 1min candle engulf the previous (and large) candle in 9 seconds. I went short at the break of the 200MA-1min. Target was $45 and S/O was VWAP. The price actually reached my first partial target but was more of a spike and I was unable to take a partial. I was stopped out quickly afterwards. What the chart looked like when I took the trade: The complete trade: Score card for my live trades. What I did good today: I kept to my Friday rule of half share size so I kept damage to -1R today. How did I challenge myself today? Did not have AAPL as my main focus. What I did bad today: I forgot how FB trades. What can I do better: I need to review my notes on the stock if I haven’t traded it for over a week.

July 18, Sim on $QCOM Day 3 of no trading at the open. Tomorrow I might be able to trade, not sure yet though. I came back in the afternoon again to work some more on my entry for a moving average cross over. Just like yesterday, after opening the platform I saw a good setup according to my gut at 1405 on $MSFT and $AMD. This time I didn't trade, as I had somewhat of a trade plan that I wanted to test out and see if it would work. Both trades did move the way I was anticipating. About 1/2 an hour later I saw the setup on $QCOM and decided to take the trade as it broke the support level with the moving averages sloping to crossover the 50. On the five minute made a new low right at the support level. Also made a new 15 minute low along with rejecting VWAP 3 times. Overall, I think I now have a set of criteria that I can start testing in sim to see the accuracy and profitability of the trade. A big step that I been trying to accomplish for the last month or so. Safe trading tomorrow for everyone.

I agree, I am not sure what the 29.62 level was but it definitely was a resistance level yesterday. The line I marked is my stop, I have to have a visual stop as it triggers my mind to exit the trade. I caught another one of these today with $QCOM, Double top and broke a support level with moving averages slopping to cross over on the 1 and 2 minute charts.

18.Jul.19 Green Day. I had changed my strategy a bit. I have reduced my R factor by 50%, My Max loss is 4R, Daily goal is 4R. Because I am starting out without PDT rule, I would like to take as many trades as possible to confirm my style of trading. It may result in overtrading a bit and lot of commissions. But I think it is important not to restrict myself when i feel the setup is there. My Risk controls are my Maxloss per day and small R. I can do this in SIM, but sometimes I get very complacent in SIM. I will journal most of the trades that are relavant, if not all. Watchlist: $AMRN, $AMD, $MU, $FB, $ROKU (although I liked $NFLX, price is not in my range) Trades 1, 2, 3 & 4: $AMRN, I liked $AMRN because it was gapped down. Price is within my range and it is not very volatile. I took ORB down after a shooting star (alike), got stopped out after 1R. I waited for the price to pop above VWAP, took it long after the long wicked candle, got stopped out. Did it again, and got stopped out. Then the price starts to move up on ABCD pattern, I took it long now and exited at HOD. Missed the move, but I was short biased on $AMRN and was worried about the Double top. But $AMRN traded much better than I imagined. Trade 5: $AMRN. I am a bit emberassed about this one, because of the way I managed it. This is probably one of my worst Trades if not The absolute worst. Mid day, I noticed that $AMRN started to reverse. i saw the Shooting star on 15min at the 50MA. This was perfect setup. My entry couldn't have been better. But I chickened out after the price retraced back to my entry. I missed a 10R move. I was already Short biased on $AMRN and I should have stayed in this. As expected price came down to 50MA on daily and even close to 200MA daily. May be I just wanted to stay green today, however small that is. I expect $AMRN to be in play again tomorrow. Trades 6 & 7: $MU. $MU was strong on the daily. It created a false VWAP breakout on the downside, then came above resistence including VWAP. I took it long and partialed at HOD. Went long again on the pullback to the HOD. Nice Trend trade. I managed it quite well. Trades 8: $AMD. Noticed $AMD wedge forming at $32.77 (daily level) Took it short at the break of wedge to LOD. Partialed once before exiting at new 15min high. Neat trade. Trade 9: $ROKU. This was a really nice Reversal trade. 15min had strong support 50 and 200 MA below. Price bounced off of 50MA also forming double bottom on 5min. This is A+ setup. Sold all the way to VWAP. Good: I like my new strategy to cut down the R and be open to take more trades. I can learn a lot from it. Also means, I am operating with small share sizes, which I will slowly increase every month. I changed my DAS layout also, and like the new format. Improvement: Need to accept the loss on a Trade, I am still hesitant and assume that my trade setup is going to work every time. Or I am cutting short my trades so the A+ setup now becomes an Invalid setup ($AMRN short). $AMRN could have been my one and done. My focus is to try and avoid this going forward.