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Zack Zarr

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Zack Zarr last won the day on August 18 2018

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About Zack Zarr

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  1. Zack Zarr

    Reply to "EURUSD Trade Setup/Analysis"

    Please start a new post here on the forum with your thoughts and question on particular pair, and I will do my best to post my analysis shortly after the pair in question. I hope that works for you and all other members. Thanks, Zack
  2. This post is the response to questions originally asked by a member (EURUSD Trade Setup/Analysis) Thank you for this question. Here is my analysis from the long term and short term point of view on EURUSD: Long Term Looking at the weekly chart of EU and the positioning of the large speculators and their counterpart, the commercials, it seems that everyone is bearish on EUR. See chart below with some annotation. The short positioning of the large specs as well as the long positioning of the commercials looks very similar to the time prior the sharp drop in EUR back in early-mid 2014. One important factor to pay attention to is the number of shorts that large specs possess at the moment which is almost near the past 2 year high. The color coding of the tabulated data also suggest the same thing (see below) It will take quite some time for these short to get closed and until that time, it is very unlikely that wee see any sharp jump in EURUSD. Short Term The daily chart of EU shows some interesting actions which can help she some light in the price action in recent weeks. The main positioning activity has been to add shorts very slowly since fall 2018. Almost every bullish positioning has been short lived. The major point in recent weeks has been the fact that the high point and drop near 1.14 on March-end was not caused by any major change in positioning size. hence, that area does not have much significance in terms of supply (as shown on the chart). The major short adding activity happened last week where large specs added 24K shorts. In my opinion, that zone has more significance than the upper area (which is where Vinod has his SZ). Based on these recent positioning of large specs, below is some possible trade ideas for EU. Trade Ideas The 4H chart of EU is used to draw some SZs where some short trades can be taken. I hope the explanations above clarify the reasoning of taking these short trades. The price is currently at the SZ which initiated 24K shorts. Other shorting opportunity comes when price reaches to the upper SZ where lots of shorts started there. Thank you for the question and Good Luck, Let me know if you need more clarification. Zack
  3. UPDATE (Feb 26, 2019 | 10:30 PM EST) The COT data form Feb 5th and 12th were released since last update, but not much change has happened in longs and shorts. There has been a back and forth action in longs and shorts form non-commercials (large speculators) without any clear intention. Interesting is to see that those 26K shorts added near 1290 level were still open until Feb 12th (the latest COT release). I am still wondering if the last jump in price was caused by forced closure of those shorts, or it was only adding more longs. We'll find out by the end of next week. Zack
  4. UPDATE (Feb 26, 2019 | 10PM EST) AUD has not shown much movement since last time I showed the COT data. Until Feb 12 (the latest COT report release), the large speculators have been moving long and short position back and forth without any consistent direction. They started adding some longs before the year end, but the giant drop after the new year caused some of those longs to be closed while some shorts were added. But eventually those shorts were also closed. The price reacted to the pullback in a manner which I expected but hasn't moved much since then. This inactivity is mostly due to the continuous weakness in AUD data and China trade concerns. For the time being, I still have part of my longs open with SL (stop loss) close to BE (break even) near 0.7 Will update this as we see the Feb 19 and 26 COT data. Zack
  5. Zack Zarr

    EUR/GBP

    No worries, there is always plenty of time to enter a trade. Sorry for the abbreviation; moving SL to BE == moving stop loss to break even to protect your initial capital. Let me know if you have any questions and feedback on the book. Zack
  6. Zack Zarr

    EUR/GBP

    I hope you got some short off that 0.88 zone, I know it wasn't an easy short to hold on to because the price jumped one more time before going down: Now waiting to see if the broken support at 0.863 finally breaks down. Moving SL to BE would be a great idea now, plus taking some partial profit. Good luck, Zack
  7. UPDATE: Gold traders showed some large activities on their long and shorts over the last weeks of January based on most recent COT data. The chart shows it in a more clear way how the Large Speculators tried to take some profit from their longs while adding significant shorts Over the first few weeks of 2019, these traders took profit on 23K of their longs while adding 26K shorts. But as you can see, their shorts ended up in loss when the price jumped even higher on the week of Jan 29th when they again added 26K more longs. Interestingly enough, they didn't close those 26K shorts as of Jan 29th. It would be interesting to see if the recent jump was caused by closing all those shorts or they actually added more longs again! For the time being, I still have my longs open since last Oct as I mentioned in this post (https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/752-fx-weekly-technical-analysis-and-trade-setups-based-on-october-09-2018-cot-reports/). I know that a downturn/ or some partial bearishness is coming. But I need to see some signs of serious bearishness on COT data (which is still delayed by three weeks due to government shutdown) before changing my mind on the Gold bullish action. Zack
  8. On this post, I will elaborate on my thoughts on the price movement on Gold over the past bearish and current bullish trend. This is a layer-by-layer (or onion-type) approach from the simple price action to much deeper and more educated analysis based on the COT data. As always, your feedback is highly appreciated. The Gold chart and possible zones On this simple Gold chart, I highlighted some of the areas which the price has shown strong reaction, either bearish (red boxes), bullish (green boxes) or consolidation type (curly brackets). As you know, I am a big fan of understanding the Big Players thought process and decisions. So this is a game of me guessing what these players have done in the past. And yes, you can only guess based on this simple chart, nothing more! It is not too difficult to imagine some Short Adding and Long Closing activity inside the red boxes and Long Adding and Short Closing activity inside the green boxes. I'd suggest you play along this game and make your guesses before looking at the next chart. The next chart shows some of these activities. The notes beside each box are the actual events that occurred based on the COT-legacy reports. If you want to learn more about these reports, I have published some posts on this forum (A Deep Dive into Commitment of Traders Data Analysis, Commitment of Traders Data Analysis- Data Meets the Chart, Commitment of Traders Data Analysis- Part 2)* *Note: for some of these posts, you need our FREE membership accessible by singing up at the bottom of this page: https://bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Some of these action by the Big Players are intuitive but some are not. In the following sections, the actual numbers based on these COT reports are shown on the chart. You will see how the action of these players affect the price. Continue reading in our FREE membership section GOLD: an educational walk-through of the past and current cycle. Zack
  9. UPDATE: This is from few months ago, but wanted to point out the move in Gold since then. Almost $119 move up since the buy zone signal. I am still holding some of the positions while took profit on some. There was a short order which I got stopped out. See the before and now screen shots I will post some more updates on these trade signals. Good luck, Zack
  10. UPDATE: The longs I started after the sharp drop are still open, we saw a strong move up after the FOMC data today. The price went a bit furhter down the buy zone I suggested in the previous zone (by 20 pips) but that is expected and should fall inside your SL range. It is wise to move SL into profit, take some profit (TP 1 is already hit). I will take some time to see all COT data starting this Friday, so until then, I would be still cautious on holding the longs below 0.70 which is somewhere around my average entry point. Will update as we see more data in the coming days. and also will post new trades. Good luck, Zack
  11. Thanks for your kind words. A summary of COT analysis is published in the previous posts of our forum in the forex education section https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/forum/20-forex-education/ You need to created a free forex account on the forex trading page to access those. https://bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Post your questions and ideas here and let me know if I can help. Cheers, Zack
  12. Finally the COT reports for the past few weeks are being released in the order they were missing starting this Friday. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7864-19 Will be posting some updates on major pairs based on these reports, it is going to take a while until we get the latest data though. Good luck, Zack
  13. Zack Zarr

    EUR/GBP

    From the technical point of view, the support is broken, there is no demand zone in control at the moment. The nearest demand zone (buy zone) is at lower levels near 0.85. For the time being, the main thing I am looking for is a supply zone (sell zone) 0.88. With the Brexit news, this pair is very tricky to trade, plus the fact that we don't have any idea what the big players are thinking (no COT data yet). I am staying away for the time being, I will post a chart with my analysis on this thread later today. Good luck, Zack
  14. UPDATE: With the government still shut down, and no real numbers based on big banks decision, we cannot see what really happened during the drop and pull back early this year. CFTC reports are not being updated which is the main reason why I am holding off on making any new trade decision. Price Action: From pure price action point of view, the AUD has a change of a free fall to well below 0.68 and even filling a weekly gap down to 0.66 area. Why? because I can see all SL orders have been taken out by that giant drop early January. But what happened after that drop and how giant of a buy order was placed is a question which we don;t have the answer to. So please be aware the unknowns at the moment. Zack
  15. UPDATE: Still looking good on re-buying from that zone. I will wait form some pullback to buy more at around 0.71-0.715. Note: buying from this area right now is purely based on price action (imagine the sellers who sold on that drop are all out for loss). Buy decision is NOT based on any COT data as I am patiently waiting for this government shut down to end. The big players are running around with their orders with no one watching their orders!
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