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Zack Zarr

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Zack Zarr last won the day on August 18 2018

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  1. UPDATE: Gold traders showed some large activities on their long and shorts over the last weeks of January based on most recent COT data. The chart shows it in a more clear way how the Large Speculators tried to take some profit from their longs while adding significant shorts Over the first few weeks of 2019, these traders took profit on 23K of their longs while adding 26K shorts. But as you can see, their shorts ended up in loss when the price jumped even higher on the week of Jan 29th when they again added 26K more longs. Interestingly enough, they didn't close those 26K shorts as of Jan 29th. It would be interesting to see if the recent jump was caused by closing all those shorts or they actually added more longs again! For the time being, I still have my longs open since last Oct as I mentioned in this post (https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/752-fx-weekly-technical-analysis-and-trade-setups-based-on-october-09-2018-cot-reports/). I know that a downturn/ or some partial bearishness is coming. But I need to see some signs of serious bearishness on COT data (which is still delayed by three weeks due to government shutdown) before changing my mind on the Gold bullish action. Zack
  2. On this post, I will elaborate on my thoughts on the price movement on Gold over the past bearish and current bullish trend. This is a layer-by-layer (or onion-type) approach from the simple price action to much deeper and more educated analysis based on the COT data. As always, your feedback is highly appreciated. The Gold chart and possible zones On this simple Gold chart, I highlighted some of the areas which the price has shown strong reaction, either bearish (red boxes), bullish (green boxes) or consolidation type (curly brackets). As you know, I am a big fan of understanding the Big Players thought process and decisions. So this is a game of me guessing what these players have done in the past. And yes, you can only guess based on this simple chart, nothing more! It is not too difficult to imagine some Short Adding and Long Closing activity inside the red boxes and Long Adding and Short Closing activity inside the green boxes. I'd suggest you play along this game and make your guesses before looking at the next chart. The next chart shows some of these activities. The notes beside each box are the actual events that occurred based on the COT-legacy reports. If you want to learn more about these reports, I have published some posts on this forum (A Deep Dive into Commitment of Traders Data Analysis, Commitment of Traders Data Analysis- Data Meets the Chart, Commitment of Traders Data Analysis- Part 2)* *Note: for some of these posts, you need our FREE membership accessible by singing up at the bottom of this page: https://bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Some of these action by the Big Players are intuitive but some are not. In the following sections, the actual numbers based on these COT reports are shown on the chart. You will see how the action of these players affect the price. Continue reading in our FREE membership section GOLD: an educational walk-through of the past and current cycle. Zack
  3. UPDATE: This is from few months ago, but wanted to point out the move in Gold since then. Almost $119 move up since the buy zone signal. I am still holding some of the positions while took profit on some. There was a short order which I got stopped out. See the before and now screen shots I will post some more updates on these trade signals. Good luck, Zack
  4. UPDATE: The longs I started after the sharp drop are still open, we saw a strong move up after the FOMC data today. The price went a bit furhter down the buy zone I suggested in the previous zone (by 20 pips) but that is expected and should fall inside your SL range. It is wise to move SL into profit, take some profit (TP 1 is already hit). I will take some time to see all COT data starting this Friday, so until then, I would be still cautious on holding the longs below 0.70 which is somewhere around my average entry point. Will update as we see more data in the coming days. and also will post new trades. Good luck, Zack
  5. Thanks for your kind words. A summary of COT analysis is published in the previous posts of our forum in the forex education section https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/forum/20-forex-education/ You need to created a free forex account on the forex trading page to access those. https://bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Post your questions and ideas here and let me know if I can help. Cheers, Zack
  6. Finally the COT reports for the past few weeks are being released in the order they were missing starting this Friday. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7864-19 Will be posting some updates on major pairs based on these reports, it is going to take a while until we get the latest data though. Good luck, Zack
  7. Zack Zarr


    From the technical point of view, the support is broken, there is no demand zone in control at the moment. The nearest demand zone (buy zone) is at lower levels near 0.85. For the time being, the main thing I am looking for is a supply zone (sell zone) 0.88. With the Brexit news, this pair is very tricky to trade, plus the fact that we don't have any idea what the big players are thinking (no COT data yet). I am staying away for the time being, I will post a chart with my analysis on this thread later today. Good luck, Zack
  8. UPDATE: With the government still shut down, and no real numbers based on big banks decision, we cannot see what really happened during the drop and pull back early this year. CFTC reports are not being updated which is the main reason why I am holding off on making any new trade decision. Price Action: From pure price action point of view, the AUD has a change of a free fall to well below 0.68 and even filling a weekly gap down to 0.66 area. Why? because I can see all SL orders have been taken out by that giant drop early January. But what happened after that drop and how giant of a buy order was placed is a question which we don;t have the answer to. So please be aware the unknowns at the moment. Zack
  9. UPDATE: Still looking good on re-buying from that zone. I will wait form some pullback to buy more at around 0.71-0.715. Note: buying from this area right now is purely based on price action (imagine the sellers who sold on that drop are all out for loss). Buy decision is NOT based on any COT data as I am patiently waiting for this government shut down to end. The big players are running around with their orders with no one watching their orders!
  10. For the next trade I am looking at Gold. I think there needs to be a drop so that the big players could add to their longs. Will post that later today or tomorrow. Zack
  11. UPDATE: Had to buy back again, as yesterday's flash crash was just a "glitch". The price came right back in the buy zone so I bought again. Same SL. Would be very helpful to have the past few weeks of CFTC COT data. Zack
  12. UPDATE: Out of all longs I had opened on unexpected volatility during the least liquid time of the day. Apple earning modification is being cited as the catalyst. Anyhow, will revisit after we get more CFTC data which has been missing for the past 2 weeks. Zack
  13. TRADE IDEA AUDUSD LONG Buying Range* : 0.69 - 0.704 Stop loss Area: 10-20 pips below 0.68 Target Profit: TP1: 0.72 TP2: 0.74 TP3: 0.76 CHART Below is the current chart with the daily chart of AUDUSD. The prediction of price movement, buying range* and SL range are shown on the chart. My first buy is already in. ANALYSIS The two charts below show: Top: Positioning of the large specs vs small specs based on the COT-Legacy reports of Dec 18, 2018. bottom: Positioning of the Asset Managers vs. Leveraged Money in the TFF reports of Dec 18, 2018. Note: the Dec 26, 2018 reports are missing due to government shutdown in case you were wondering. Legacy Reports Legacy report: The major action of the large specs has been profit taking on their shorts foe the past 2 months. Over this period, large specs used every drop in the price to take profit on their short position resulting in 50K reduction in shorts from 99K shorts in Oct 9 to 53K shorts on Dec 18th (See below). I also made a pitchfork visible on this chart which I think could become significant if the price starts heading up. Interestingly, the large speculators have not started adding to their longs. The pullback from the recent largest short position is now at 53% which is the lowest over the past year. The only difference is that a year ago from now in early December, long positions where still as high as 90K longs vs. the current 18K amount. Yes, not much room to decrease in my opinion. TFF Reports TFF Report: Similar to the legacy reports, both sections of the TFF report have been decreasing their shorts positions over the past 2 months. Asset managers took 25K shorts off their books while leveraged money decreased their shorts by 35K. The Lev Money is the bigger of the two, so their behavior resembles the large specs in the legacy report. As opposed to the Lev Money, Asset Managers have also started adding to their longs for almost 7 months now. Starting from only a 3K long positions in May 2018, they are now at 14K which is a over 4-fold increase. Of course, the sizing of their position is relatively smaller, i.e. insignificant compared to those of Lev Money. But, still something to pay attention to. There is one factor which is oddly against the bullish case herein the data. And that is the sudden drop in short positions of the Sell Side (Dealers) showing up as a jump in the overall long exposure of Dealers. It could be simply expiration of some contracts. But the lack of data from Dec 26th makes it hard to draw any conclusion. Something to have in mind for the coming weekly data. Summary: The overall activity and positioning of the large traders in the COT reports suggest the preparation for some up movement in AUD. The already low long exposure and continuous drop in the shorts could be the beginning of this move. However, we could potentially wait form another week or two to see the actual long build up to make a more certain decision. No prediction is for certain! Only a game of probabilities. *Note: buying in range means spreading buy orders into a full position (depending on your account size). For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to zack@bearbulltraders.com  Zack Your feedback is highly appreciated as always, and helps us make these posts more effective.
  14. Hi Zack,

    Have you stop your FX Weekly analysis ?

    1. Zack Zarr

      Zack Zarr

      Been playing around with the format of posts. Just posted the new format. 



  15. Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on October 16th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. More trade updates will come in the following post. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to zack@bearbulltraders.com  Zack

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