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Showing content with the highest reputation on 06/30/2019 in all areas
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2 points
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2 pointsI learnt the hard way that the Stop order/Range order don't work in premarket and postmarket. Nevertheless, I saw the $MU ABCD pattern too, and felt it was pretty good setup. It's just I have a rule not to trade in the premarket, otherwise I would have taken it too. Sequence of red means a sequence of Green coming, per Probabilities. Stay Green.
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2 pointsA few thoughts... -- I've voiced my opinion to MANY traders on the notion that trading is NOT, and will never be, synonymous with the typical gist of a 40 hour work week. The more you trade, in my opinion (and based on THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS of trades I've personally taken), the more you risk giving up profits. I wrote this to you in an earlier response, but MANY traders lose money (often times giving profits back), because they can't fight the urge to keep trading. They trade the "chop," when -- in fact -- they should be DONE trading by no later than 10:30am on MOST days... It's perfectly acceptable to watch the markets, go over old trades, scroll through charts, etc. for 80 hours per week (I sure did), but to actually trade for more than a couple of hours each day.....in my humble opinion....is asking for disaster... I wrote --- on my actual desk --- that I am ONLY allowed to take trades based on very specific timelines (1st is a premarket trade around 08:45, next is a trade within the 1st 15 minutes of the bell, and 3rd is the 09:45 reversal/pullback). Admittedly I often violate this "rule," but the fact that I've written this "rule," with a sharpie on the actual surface of my desk -- underneath where I place my hands when typing -- speaks to the reality that 90%+ of trading is psychology. -- you elude to the notion that trading is a 50/50 crap shoot. Though I respectfully disagree, I'll run with the 50/50 thing for a second. If a trader is ONLY 50% "accurate," and they are properly managing risk (ie, using a 2:1 reward/risk ratio) -- so long as all else remains relatively equal (price/position/etc...) -- then they are a profitable trader. Example: a trader takes only three trades..., but does so with a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. They risk $100 for the opportunity to make $200 on each trade. Trade 1: they're wrong, so they lose $100 Trade 2: they're wrong, so they lose another $100. Trade 3: they're correct, so they make $200. This trader was ONLY 33% "accurate," yet broke even. All else equal, they literally only have to be 34% "accurate" to become profitable with a 2:1 ratio. That is WORSE odds than flipping a coin, yet still profitable. What if this trader purposefully decides to be less "involved," and aims for only "perfect" set ups with "perfect" areas of support/resistance and stop/price targets at play (avoiding over-trading in the process)...? Let's say they shoot for a 5:1 ratio instead (which I get on MANY of my trades; especially swing trades). This trader only has to be "accurate" 20% of the time to break even.... I could go on for days, and give a thousand real life examples, but I don't want to beat a dead horse. My point is that trading is easier -- statistically -- to place odds on than is flipping a coin. So even if you're correct, and it is indeed a 50/50 gamble, my simply managing your risk -- you're a statistically profitable trader. Risk is a psychology issue....believe me.... Ive learned this lesson MANY times... I have more losses in the thousands of dollars than I'd like to admit. What I do now....after paying that "tuition" to the game (as I call it), is take a few days off when it happens... Sometimes the mind needs to reset....to rest... And EVERY time I do this -- I come back with proper risk-management, and see consistently profitable days... -- I have personally grown accounts with less than $1,000 in them by over 500% MULTIPLE times. I did a lot of this when I had a YouTube channel. Believe me -- it looks a lot easier than it is..., but so does hitting a golf ball. My point here is that just because it seems impossible to do, doesn't mean it is. All of us --- ALL OF US --- get to a point with trading where we question whether, or not, we can actually do this... I'm sure Tiger Woods questioned if he could make a come back, and he just won another major... I just watched a documentary on Barbara Corcoran, and she too had struggles in real estate... Ray Kroc was told his idea was moronic, Einstein was declared "retarded," and Michael Jordan couldn't make a basketball team... All of these people, at one point in their lives, were at a crossroads similar to yours.... Maybe trading isn't for you, but that doesn't mean it's not possible for anyone.. The mind is a powerful thing man....and trading is one of the toughest tests of will-power, perseverance, discipline, and intestinal fortitude anyone could ever subject it (the mind) to... Trading is OVER 90% psychology. The statistics do not lie.... This is one of the few opportunities in the world where you can be the "house," and take money from the gamblers... the hardest part is avoiding getting caught as the gambler... I know from experience... Anyways... I gotta run..., or I would try to expand a little more on other things you wrote. I'm not urging you to stick with its because it quite possibly isn't for you...., but believe me man --- it is possible to make money trading... Wish you well; stay humble; STAY GREEN!
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1 pointHi, I will post some of my journal here, I already have a personnal journal system that I use on a reagular basis so I won't be posting every trades, but I'll do my best to post the most relevant (very good or ugly ones). Also, my job situation doesn't allow me to trade everyday yet, so I would not have something to post everyday anyway... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Been daytrading for 4 years now partial time, started really strong, in penny stocks (yeah.. count me in.. another one), had great days, but without blowing my account ended up loosing at the end. Reallity is, if I wasn't risk adverse by nature, I would have blown up during that phase. Been in 3 or 4 different trading room before BBT. Started to trade higher-priced stocks about 1.5 years ago, trying to re-learn, re-wire my brain vs what I have learned in the pennystock world. (a lot of room pumping-dumping, or really fast execution on 5 cents move, 20k shares.. you see the picture). Not my style. -During my first 2-3 years, I wasn't realizing it, but those losses and having the wrong trading process slowly affected my confidence. That lack of confidence had me looking at the market without trading during days, weeks, even an entire month last summer.(I wasn't triggering) Good thing is, since I wasn't taking trades during the day, I was using my ToS OnDemand simulator to practice at night to slowly rebuild my mindset. Nowadays, I take more trades (even sometimes too many) I will have red and green days, but I really need to be able to align more green days in a row in order to make this as a living. At least, I feel that things are moving forward again. One step at a time. Most of my trading errors are now things that I can pin-point, and they repeat themselves, so it's easier to work on them. @Andrew Aziz trading mentallity/ability and book helped me a lot more recently, I realised I was trying too many patterns, trying to be creative instead of beeing systematic. I now put my focus on 2 "patterns": ORBs and ABCDs ,that's it. It going better. Just though it would be nice to explain where I come from, maybe some of you could relate to this. Don't hesitate to throw in ideas, or if you see something in my trading, I'm really open new ideas/opinions in order to get better. Thanks, Karl
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1 pointLive trading summary of the month of June. So on Tuesday afternoon (6/25/19) I was thinking I wish the month ended today because I was up +7R with a score card of 87%, but it didn’t. I had three really bad days thus ending the month at +0.6R and score card of 84.5%. Though I shouldn’t be concentrating on my P/L, the previous four months (Feb-May) my end of month P/Ls have been in the range of +1.6R to -2.7R. Essentially, I have been flat for four months. But, just last Tuesday it was looking like a break out month for me being up +7R. But again I ended flat for the month. The two positive things I can say about the month of June is first I do feel like I have improved in my trading this month. Second, even though I have a win% this month of 42% I am green for the month (though barely). This does show that my winners are larger than my losers. I traded with Centerpoint for most of the month with mix results. The BBT deal limited me to too slow of a route so I had to drop that deal. Then there was one market open that you couldn’t short any stock. I will trade with them again in July and see how it goes. In June I reread (actually listened to) Daily Trading Coach. That was the third time I had listened to it. It seems to be a book you need to reread every few months. I am still reading The Playbook on Kindle and reading Market Mind Games on hard back. It takes a lot longer for me to read in that media. Stats for February/March/April/May/June: February March April May June Total # of trades 21 34 36 36 38 Hulk Days 0 0 0 0 0 Max Loss Days 0 0 0 0 0 Broke max trade rule 1 1 0 0 0 Hoy Key Mistakes 1 1 0 0 1 Score card 81% 81% 84.5% Goals for June: 1) Don’t go hulk. 2) Learn to control your emotions after a loss. 3) The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month. 4) Reduce risk per trade from $30 back to $25 until trade score card improves. 5) Keep improving health. 6) Follow the new 11 rules I specified in my June 28 weekly
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1 pointLive trading summary for week ending 6/28/19. Rough week. I took 10 trades this week with a poor score card average of 81%. Win% was the worse in over 5 months at 20%. Friday, after 7 losing trades in a row that week, almost turned into a hulk day. I was able to walk away just under my daily max loss. Monday was an OK day. Tuesday I was rejected trying to short FB at the open (what a short it would have been!) due to Centerpoint’s IT issues. Then all losing trades Wednesday through Friday. So now I know where my emotional capital limits are, so I need to set new rules to prevent me reaching it again. 1) Lower risk from $30 back to $25 2) Do not increase risk size on the last week of the month. 3) Do not hold to original S/O after first partial. Something I implemented last week (don’t move your S/O after only one partial) since back testing said I would profit from it. Failed me 3 times this week. So S/O will be moved from the original level after first partial. 4) Trade half share size the day after a double stop out day 5) Two double stop out days in a row go to SIM. So I will be on SIM on Monday. 6) 2 trade a day max again. The third trade per day under certain conditions was working for me. But I can’t trust myself now. Plus it feels like a punishment if I take this away. 7) No premarket trades. This was working for me, but again I don’t trust myself now. 8] After done trading live for the day, look for a SIM trade until 7am. 9) Absolutely no trades before preflight checklist signed off. I was sloppy about that this week. 10) Increase meditation 11) Watch the will-power reservoir. I have been trying to improve my discipline (will-power) in my nontrading life. But doing too much can drain the will power reservoir we all have. So mild will power exercises during the week and the heavy lifting one’s I will practice on Friday and Saturday only. Here is my plan for this week: Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L Follow the 11 new rules listed above Do not trade AAPL until better data is seen. Though last week was OK, AAPL maybe coming back into play at the open. FB had a marginal week. It should be secondary or even your third focus for this week. AMD was no longer in play for the 2min ORB. Do not focus on it at the open. MU is in play at the open, make it your primary focus for the week. NFLX is now in play at the open, especially for the 1min ORB. Careful the way it slides through VWAP. Give it 30-50 cents of room around VWAP before considering that it "broke" through VWAP. Try trading NFLX in SIM or low shares (with wide stop out) at first.
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1 pointMaybe you can do a series of vids loosely based on your forum post "how I finally stopped losing...". I know that's been a big source of inspiration to many traders here that seem to follow the same trading journey. That post covered risk, psychology, trade management.. etc. I know that post was detailed (and thank you) - but maybe a vid will add some supplementation -- how you handled risk and profit targets for example. Just an idea... For what it's worth, I've been live for 9 months, but consistently losing $ . Finally, FINALLY i've taken the approach from you post. I started with $10/risk a trade and am now increasing risk slowly. My 'profits' are pathetic at this point, but at least my down trend equity curve is flattening.
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1 pointFriday 6/28/2019 I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were actually OK. I apologies I did not make a screen cap of my trades so you will not see the charts today. Sorry I really did not want to look at them again. So today’s journal entry is more of lamenting and reflection, not analysis. Today was my worse day in 5 months to end my worse week in 5 months and destroyed what would have been my best month since I went live. I usually have bad days on my last day of the month, but I lost control today. I was having a pretty bad week already. Tuesday Centerpoint had an IT issue and would not allow any shorts (my short entry was rejected twice on FB) and thus missed, what would have been likely my trade of the month. Though I kept the FOMO in check, it did weigh on me. Wednesday was my first triple stop out day in 5 months. Thursday was a double stop out day. I did not get a chance to exercise or meditate on Thursday. I was worried last night how my nerves would be on Friday, but when I woke up they were fine. I just thought I am trading half share size today (Friday trading rule) so the worse I can do is –R. So I guess I really didn’t know my emotional capital was completely spent. So what I felt as no nervousness was more likely numbness. I opened up my platform as usual in the morning, though a few minutes late, and I almost instantly took a trade very early in the premarket. I have never done that before and I have no idea how to trade that early. The reaction to take a trade was instant, I was not prepared for that. Yes, looking at MU without checking the time looked like an OK setup. But that could be a horrible setup for that time in the morning. Yes it did have an ABCD pattern and I went long. At first with small share size. But was caught in the headlights and missed my entry. But I took the trade anyway after it ran 20 cents. 20 cents!! That should be my target not my entry. Obviously it retraced and found a new bottom. I added to my long and did actually take a first partial. I took too small of a share size once I remembered I am in premarket and took another partial. The price started to reverse. Recently I have not been stopping out at B/E if I only take one partial. A new rule this week, which I have used now 3 times to disastrous effects. But B/E was a good spot to move my S/O to since it was the new support level. Once broken I should get out. Instead I was holding to my original stop out. A few cents above my original stop out I got so disgusted with myself I exited. The price immediately reversed back and headed higher. So if I exited at B/E it would have been a positive trade or held to my original S/O. Instead I caught the low. This triggered even more emotional issues and after the price moved a bit up I went long again (chasing it again). At that point I didn’t want to look at it again. Without thinking clearly I set a range order with a tight stop and walked away to finish with my usual morning routine. Yes I had a stop LIMIT order at low volume premarket where I should have used a stop market order. I came back a few minutes later assuming I had been stopped out and saw the price well below my stop limit and still active. Now I really started to lose it and added to my position at the new support level. I did choose a S/O level and I did make a very rough calculation of risk, then rounded up the share size, ignored the premarket price slide and ignored my first entry. Thus my risk was way too high. The price dropped and I did get out at my planned S/O minus the slide I must have had. I immediately closed my platform without recording screen captures of my trades and walked away and went to work early. It was almost 4 hours later I decided to look at my P/L. I glanced at it and closed my platform quickly as I wasn’t sure if I could trust myself. It was bad, but luckily it was just slightly below my daily max loss limit. I think that would have crushed me after 5 months of never breaking my max loss to finally break it. I was also still slightly green for the month. I took a big hit to my monthly score card average, I was actually proud of my score card this month until the last day. My score card for the day: What I did good today: Live to trade another day. How did I challenge myself today? Turned off my platform and walked away. What I did bad today: Lost control. What can I do better tomorrow: Well I found where my current limits are for emotional capital. I will create a plan and post in my weekly how not to reach those limits again.
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1 point27.Jun.19 - DASTrader - BT Another small Green day. I couldn't spend lot of time at Premarket. Watchlist: $NVDA, $MU, $AAPL ,$AMD and later $SQ. Trade 1: $SQ. SQ was settingup for the 3c setup on 2min, I took long at the breakout. But it failed me. This setup has high accuracy for me, except this month it failed twice. I also failed to notice the shooting star on 1min. would have got out earlier. Trade 2: $AAPL I was really interested in $AAPL today, because it had a shooting star on the daily. I was very short biased. Price opened higher hit 200MA on 5min and dumped (forming 5min shooting star). I missed all this because I was on $SQ trade. Nevertheless, I waited for the price to break down below 200MA (2min) and went Short. It was also 15min ORBD. My target was YY-low (at $197.33), but I exited sooner, as I had to leave. Price went till 197.1 and reversed. Missed most of the move. Entry - $198.19 Stop - 15c (above 200MA 2min) Target - $197.33 Exit - $197.75 (3R) MFE price - $197.1 (7R) I took another small trade on $AAPL towards the close to test Short below MA. Very small share size. Improvement: Manytimes, I noticed that after I am stopped out, price provides excellent opportuntiy to flip (like $SQ today). I am not a flipper, but need to try this. Left money on the table on $AAPL. Today is the last day of the challenge. I will publish the results and analysis next week.
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1 pointFriday at job.. not good, should not have trades today. See the video... Have a good weekend all! 2019-06-28AAPL.mp4
