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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/02/2018 in all areas
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1 pointHello Everyone, First I wanted to say what a great community we have here with BBT. I have learned so much from traders with all different levels of experience. Today marks 4 months of simulator trading and I plan to do one more full month before going live. I have decided to post daily recaps of my simulator trades as a way to help myself with accountability and ensure I trade in the simulator the way I would trade live. Hopefully, these posts may help some traders who are just beginning in the simulator. My plan for the last month of simulator trading is to trade 100 shares size to copy what I plan to trade during the first month of going live. I am hoping that this gives me metrics to evaluate against once I am trading live. I welcome any feedback and comments that anyone wants to provide. 2018-09-28 15-34-44.mp4
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1 pointThanks for the great videos! Nice job, for those trades, and still grinding every day. What program do you use for the record, and are you doing it, after you finish? (live) Great work, and have good day sir.
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1 pointDay 2 of the Simulator Trade Journal on the way to live Trading in November. 5 Minute ORBD on GE. 2018-10-01 18-05-57.mp4
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1 pointAwesome dude. I took the same trade on BB - it was a steady mover and I got in at around 11.50 and got out in one move at 11.98
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1 pointI believe the objective of all trading rules is to manage risk. As such, daily targets are important, but only insofar as it helps the trader manage their risk profile. I will state up front, however, that I very firmly believe that a daily targets should not be solely (nor primarily) profit based. On any successful trade, I think we can all agree that you would never completely exit a trade just because you’ve made “too much” money. However, smart trade management tells you that you should scale out of a successful trade to lock in profits and manage downside risk. You should also move your stop-loss point, as appropriate, to avoid profit slippage on any shares you still carry. And eventually, you will exit the trade when the technical indicators dictate…and not(!) based on our achieved P&L. Likewise, I think traders should set a daily target. Not to specifically tell you when to stop trading, but to set a risk parameter that will allow you to reduce downside risk. Personally, here’s how I do it. Before each trading day I set my daily trading target along with my max loss target for the day and my max loss per trade. For illustration, let’s assume those values are as follows: Daily profit target: $500 Max daily loss: $300 Max loss per trade: $100 Minimum per trade risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2 * *(note that this value rarely changes) This tells me that on this day, I cannot, at any point in time, have more than 3 more losing trades than I have winning trades or I will hit my max loss and have to stop trading. The daily max loss is unalterable once set. No exceptions. However, the daily profit target is a guideline only, and here’s the rules I use to manage my risk: 1. Throughout the day (approximately hourly) I self-assess on how tired I am. If at any point I determine I am too tired to be effective, I will force myself to stop trading no matter the time of day or what profit level I am at. This, of course, is much easier said than done. But, through years of practice I have gotten very good at self-regulation and am able to put down my tools and stop trading. 2. Equally, I will also assess how distracted I am. If at any point I determine I have become distracted from the markets for any reason (emails, family, the chatroom, YouTube(!), etc.) and am not “in the zone” for trading, I will take a forced break of a minimum of 10 minutes (up to 2 hours) depending on the situation and time of day. I will then re-assess whether I can, and am willing(!), to re-focus on the markets to make some successful trades. If not, my trading day is done. If I am good to go, I will look at my P&L. If I am over my daily target, then I will not re-enter the market. If I am red but not a max loss, I will stop trading. If I am green but below my target I will consider resuming trading. My reasoning for this is that if I allowed myself to get distracted once today, it’s more likely to happen again if I am over target and feeling comfortable than if I still need to hustle to hit my goal. If I am red and got distracted, then I am obviously not in the game and any continuation of my trading will very likely lead to me hitting max loss. 3. If I am over my target, but not more than 1 loss over (i.e. between $500-600), then I will reduce my trade size by 50% until: a) I have achieved a profit of more than $600 where I can return to full trade size if I like, b) my profit dips below $500 and I must stop trading, or c) I remain between $500-600 through 2 more trades when I will also require myself to stop trading as my trades are obviously not achieving their individual risk-to-reward targets. 4. If I am over my target of $500 but not yet at 2x my target (i.e. $1000 in this example), then I can continue to trade until either: a) I have 2 consecutive losses, or b) I come within 1 loss (i.e. $100) of my $500 initial target. In either case, I must stop trading immediately 5. If I have had an exceptional day and am more than 2x my target, then I allow myself to risk any amount over $1000, if I feel like it. However, note that based on my fixed daily rules, I must still NEVER exceed my maximum loss (risk) per trade of $100. If I slide under $1100 (i.e less that 1 loss away from 2x target), then I must stop trading immediately. The above rules cover most scenarios. I hope this wasn’t too convoluted. It makes perfect sense to me and because I have been applying them for so long I am able to assess the above rules in seconds throughout the day, almost automatically. However, I know they might seem complex, especially when seeing them for the first time. At the outset of this article, I mentioned that I believe targets should not solely be profit based. Embedded in the above rules are my personal ‘targets’ on effectiveness, focus, risk, and fun! Yes, fun! Rule 5 is completely fun based. I allow myself to play with any ‘extra’ money, if I so choose. If that day it feels more fun to keep the money than to trade it, I will. However, if it’ll be more fun to keep trading, I can…as long as I stick within my rules thus limiting my risk exposure. Also note that rules 1 and 2 are done hourly throughout the day, irrespective of my P&L. They precede any consideration for how profitable I am on the day. As a final note, I have the habit of not looking at my daily P&L unless absolutely necessary. I used to stare at it constantly and it led to some bad behaviours. So, now I keep it hidden so as not to distract me or affect my decision making on any given trade. (I do however, look at my P&L on any open trade). So, how do I know my P&L and apply my rules if I can’t see where I’m at? I’ve found that I generally have a pretty good feel for where I’m at. I know if I’ve had a good or a bad day. I’ll usually only check when I’ve either taken a distraction interrupt, if I believe I am near max loss (that one is usually easy), or if I’m not sure if I am just above or below break-even. If I’ve made it to lunch without those happening, then I’ll check before I get up for lunch and apply my rules as appropriate.
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1 pointI think having a daily profit goal is incredibly important, not only for the obvious reasons of income to live on and invest further, but psychologically, it sets up a framework that minimizes risk and maximizes the chances of success. Assuming you have been successful at historically hitting your target profit, having one serves to set an attainable goal and ultimately, a daily "reward". Conversely, consider the concept of "more", in our little monkey/reptile brains, "more" acts like a short circuit that can lead to illogical and impulsive actions. More is almost always perceived as better, at least on the surface, but it has a vague and nebulous value, more is always more, when you get more, you want what? MORE OF IT ! In trading, this is a recipe for disaster as the amount of risk is infinite and entails almost no chance of success, this of course is what we traders seek to reduce, not enhance. I'm no psychologist so please pardon my rather primitive explanations below and also, the following is ONLY my opinion and personal perspective on the topic. We humans are reward vs threat based creatures who despite different ways of going about it, are simply looking to have our needs met with as little exposure to risk as possible. Setting a daily goal accomplishes this through first off, setting a benchmark at which (X) amount of daily profit meets whatever daily needs we require. You hit your goal, you get the dopamine reward, you've accomplished what you set out to do, life is good right? So why push it further which simply invites risk and loss? Not only that, how many solid trades can you find in a day? To some extent, its a numbers game with the opportunity limited by our capacity to find the good ones. Also, in our heads, taking a loss after meeting a goal can feel far more devastating than simply having a loss/random difficult day, while this pain/anxiety is good in the sense that it is how we learn what NOT to do, how many times do you need to go through this to learn that it was NOT the right path to take. Again, setting up a rule that says, when I hit (x) dollars for the day, I walk away, creates the framework in which this risk of highly minimized. Now, let's consider one possible scenario of what MIGHT go through the mind of a trader who does not set a daily goal. He starts the day with the concept of some nebulous dollar figure in his head that has no upper limit, it's something unattainable, he has no goal other than "MORE", what is more? More is always more and you always want more of it because it is scarce and hard to come by. It's a bit like the idea of doing something you need to do, but saying, you will do it tomorrow, tomorrow often never comes, just like more is never enough, more is always more, it ultimately becomes greed, carelessness, and drastically clouds sound judgement. Setting a profit goal allows us to attain a finite, acceptable, and definite value of what "more", is. I mean it is more than you started with right? I think most of us have noticed that, and I have for sure recognized, that the more you trade, the more chances there are of a loss, and possibly a big loss, and worst feeling of all? unnecessarily losing a previously attained "reward" , which is something we all strive to avoid, so why do it? Psychologically, we are always scanning the horizon for the thing that will meet our needs, we scan endless candlestick patterns, our scanners, etc. left unchecked, these "needs" become exaggerated, endless, and grow into expectations we will never meet, and hence, create disappointment and end in failure. So lets break this down into the base psychological components, (Reward): Rewards drive us to do the things we do, ((rewards being the serotonin, dopamine, oxytocin, etc. released in our brains when we do something positive towards our survival), these chemical responses are incredibly short lived, which drives us to continue to seek them and hence, repeat previously successful behavior in order to get yet another "reward/winning trade". Over time, we come to expect these rewards and along the way, we learn how to best attain them. Creating these behaviors takes time as the brain adjusts to it, positive change is always difficult, a bit painful, and never comes fast enough as it MUST be repeatable over time, however, it is a critical component to our survival/trading success, we need to do it over, and over again for it to become a learned and natural response that we can then do without expending much effort. Applied to day trading, setting a daily goal sets a baseline that at the fundamental level, accomplishes 2 things we all seek, meeting a need/reward/feeling good, that is repeatable as often as possible, and minimizing the threat/risk of loss. A daily profit target is a line in the sand that says "this is a goal I can hit daily with the maximum amount of success while still meeting some external financial need with the minimal amount of financial risk of loss". Basically, a profit target is an optimal balance of practical need, reward, effort, and risk aversion. The other side of the equation is (Threat, risk/anxiety/pain), the 2nd primary driver of our actions. Think back to a time when you ended a trading day with a large loss, think about how you felt then, and how it makes you feel now. Now do the same exercise and think back to a day when you had highly profitable trading day. Which experience do you recall with more intensity and emotion? If you are like most of us, the loss will trigger the stronger emotion as it has made a larger impact on your psyche and is more committed to memory. This makes sense because our ultimate goal is survival, and despite our technology, glitz, glamour, and advancement, our base brain, the limbic system (sort of like the little lizard part of our brain), is still driven by the same primary survival driven goals as our ancient ancestors, we subconsciously see a losing trade as a threat to our existence regardless of what your HUGE cerebral cortex says. In nature, rewards and acts of survival are continually necessary and short lived and while you may not reach every reward you seek, you usually still live to fight another day. Threats however, one is enough to mean that no, you don't live to fight another day. A trading loss has this same psychological effect on us which is why they are so much more intense than the short lived pleasure responses we get from meeting a small goal. Given you only survive so many threats, if at all, the memory of such events creates a more intense response. Now bringing this back to trading and applying the same concepts, this is why listening to your gut is so important and why a daily profit is such a critical tool to ultimate success. A single bad loss has the intensity of five nice profits. We humans are the only creatures that can make a single mistake yet relive it over, and over, and over again, sometimes for our entire lives. As traders, we need to accurately assess risk vs reward with a clear head, allowing anxiety to cloud our judgment through experiencing excess and repeated losses is entirely detrimental to our success, confidence, decision making, and emotional well being, etc. So again, setting a daily profit that maximizes the probability of maximum repeated success over time with minimized risk is more than just financial protection, it is psychological protection. It creates a psychological environment where we make the most of positive reinforcement all the while learning the most we can from a minimized number of risks and losses. Now granted, a set profit target will be fluid over time, not static, and will increase as our skills grow, which is truly the beauty of the way the mind/brain works and why I find understanding these concepts is beneficial to advancing the very complex skill of day trading. While this explanation may seem rather tedious, which it can be, I truly believe that understanding these primary drivers as they apply to not only trading, but life in general, gives us control over outcomes and truly puts us in the drivers seat of our actions, emotions, and ultimate success. Now, aside from the goal of making money, which is why we do this to large extent, setting an attainable daily profit provides value beyond the simple matter of providing income to meet our need for resources. For me personally, the way my trading day ends sets the tone for the rest of the day for either good, or bad. For those of us on the West coast at least, day trading is the first thing we do on a weekday. When I have profitable mornings, I'm left with a feeling of accomplishment and financial security that colors how I perceive the rest of the day and in the best way possible. More than that, when the next trading day starts, I recall the previous days success, I start the morning trading with confidence, optimism, and a positive outlook, I'm better able to pick out good trades and execute them efficiently, success breeds more of the same, its a vicious cycle of achievement we all strive for. Now, When I end the morning with a loss, its very easy to brood about it, ending with a loss sets a far less desirable tone for the day. Even more detrimental is that the next trading day can also be colored by the previous days loss. I may start the day with a feeling of anxiety, fear, and apprehension, which ultimately clouds my judgement and successful trading becomes inhibited, something no trader wants. So to put some perspective on this, on days that that started with hitting my profit goal, im not thinking for the remainder of the day, ""oh I COULD of made $750 instead of my daily $500 goal"", I'm thinking ""hey, I had a profitable trading day, and that's enough"". There will always be money left on the table to some extent and as psychologically healthy traders, we need to be ok with that and as Andrew always says, DONT CHASE IT Ultimately, we are all seeking happiness, if setting and reaching a reasonable daily profit goal can provide this on a near daily basis, why would you NOT do it. Bottom line is this, money is simply a means to an end, there is never "enough" of it, even many Billionaires continually seek more of it yet, are they really any happier than the man who sets realistic expectations, has his basic needs met and experiences many small rewards over the course of the day vs. the billionaire who continually has to seek ever larger and even harder to attain rewards for the same chemical reward response in his brain? I believe the former has the more desirable life. Almost no one is going to make so much money in a short period of trading that you can take the rest of your life off, so why NOT set a daily profit goal and then go on to enjoy rest of your day with a sense of accomplishment and well being vs. not having a set goal and chasing that ever elusive and never ending psychological rabbit hole of "more"? As traders, we have a huge number of tools in our arsenals to achieve success and I believe a profit target is a critical factor in the pursuit of that goal. Andrew, I hope this helps you, Scot