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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/24/2020 in all areas
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1 pointWhen you scale out at a .10c move, are you moving your stop (physical or mental) to break even? I ask because I changed scale-out strategies in August (SIM based) and took a huge hit (30% winrate, -$4000 on the month). I wanted to "let the runners run" and wait until it got near my price target. I was able to review the data at the end of August and noticed what was going on (what wasn't working). Like you, my numbers showed that my avg loser was way bigger than my avg winner, per trade expectancy was negative. I think the biggest (good) changes were the scale-out and the risk-based share sizing. Obviously, each person needs to develop their own strategy, but my current strategy is this: 1) Risk Based Share Sizing (see dynamic calculator in DAS area of forum) factored for confidence (e.g. if I'm not confident, I use smaller size than my max-risk allowable). My share size is based upon the stop distance. 2) When the stock reaches 1R (if my stop distance is $0.13 away, it'd need to move in my favor $0.13), I sell 25% and move my mental stop to break-even. I repurposed the Fibonacci tool (since I don't use it) to be a 1R, 2R, 3R levels indicator. 3) During the trade, I scale out some more where I see resistance forming or near known resistance levels (moving averages, half dollar, whole dollar), or at 2R, 3R, or the price target. Using my sell 25% hotkey. 4) My mental stop tends to float, so if a moving average that has been respected recently (bounced off of) is above my break-even point, I'll watch it as an indication for a change of direction (it can go past it a little bit to allow variance) and use that as a trailing stop. 5) Once my shares get down below 100, I usually measure the last two pullback distances, add a few cents to it (as long as it doesn't place it below the break-even point), and set it as a trailing stop order. Move on to the next trade. What really helped me refine this to my personality was a few data points that I record with every trade: - Highest Price in Trade (this is price related, not direction related, so highest price seen for either long or short) - Lowest Price in Trade Those aren't prices you executed at, but prices that the stock reached while your trade was open. From there, I can calculate the average R-movement, updraw%, and downdraw% for every trade. When I reviewed August's losses, the data told me that: 78% of my picks moved in my favor. I was simply not scaling appropriately and letting winners run against me. My position sizing and $risk was all over the place. For September, I implemented the new strategy listed above. Winrate is 76%. It has a lot of "small" wins. I'm working on releasing a few custom tools to the community to help people narrow down their strategy and refine their edge. One is a data-focused journal (does most of the work for you) and the other is a backtester (allowing you to automatically replay all of your trades with different scale out approaches you want to test).
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1 pointHey George, This is something we all starting out struggle with, our Losers being bigger than our Winners. Here is my advice and is only based on what I personally experienced. There is no way to really tell you what you can improve on without seeing the details of your trades over a period of time. This is were a mentor or a trading partner you can be a huge help. When I first started I was not getting a good enough entry and was hesitating a lot to get into a move. Sometimes we want firm confirmation that the move is going to happen and we get in too late. Make sure you are trusting your set up and that you are getting in with no hesitation once you spot your signal. Trust your set up and get in as soon as possible. For me setting stop loss by a set amount can sometimes mess with your judgement, I set my stop loss based on a technical level, meaning the low or the high of the previous candle, daily level, LOD/HOD this puts my trading at ease. Based on how much room I need to get the stop loss I decide if i will take a full position or half position. If my stop loss is .30 away on a very active stock i am not going to take a full size. If is .20 cents then I feel more comfortable taking a full position. Once in the trade check out the price action and what is telling you if you see any indication that your is likely not going to happen get out regardless of the stop loss. I used to set a stop loss and sometimes when the price action was not looking favorable I would still stay in the trade to see if it would work out then get out at my stop loss. Instead of losing a .05 I would lose .15 . There is no reason for that, jump out and if the set up becomes active again jump back in. Andrew is great at this, we cannot be afraid to jump out if things don't look good for a small loss and jump back in when the set up is back in play. Easier to make up 5 cents than 15 cents. There are so many variables and other possible areas of improvement but again without knowing what your specific struggling with it's difficult to hit the nail on the head. Others might also have a different answer that can fit better to what you are experiencing, so look forward to seeing responses from other members as well, as we all deal with this differently. There is no wrong answer, just what will work best for your trading style.
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1 pointDavid, it takes a lot of practice to plan a trade in real-time (especially in the first 30 minutes of the market open). At least a month and hundreds of attempts until you develop a process that works for you. Once you get good at planning and managing the trade, you will be able to do it faster and faster each time. Like muscle memory of sorts. Here is what works for me: Prerequisites 1. Stock is in play 2. Support and resistance identified in pre-market 3. Pre-market volume and price action is tradable 4. Know the float category (low, mid, high) and how many sharesI plan to take While watching the stock 1. Spread is manageable 2. ATR/price swings accounted for (i.e, see how much the stock ticks. Is it going up/down in 0.01 to 0.05 increments, or 0.50 to $1) 3. Price action is clean and not choppy; related to above 4. Volume is good and not dying 5. Who is in control: buyers or sellers? 6. What is the strategy/pattern that is setting up here? 7. Is the price getting extended? Finding an entry 1. Is the entry favourable (new 1-min or 5-min high), or will it be a chase 2. Did the stock pullback yet? If not, to which level could it test and will I survive that? 3. What's the target? Is it realistic? 4. Finding a reasonable stop at a technical level 5. Calculating the risk-to-reward 6. Executing the order with conviction--no hesitation Managing the Trade 1. Is the live price action still clean? 2. Are we making higher-highs and higher-lows, or vice versa? 3. Are there are levels or tops/bottoms that I missed before entering that have now become a factor (i.e, a moving average on the 1-minute chart) 4. Is the market providing new information that validates or invalidates my original criteria? 5. Is the Level 2 bullish, bearish or neutral? 6. Is it a good time to add more (if I scaled in initially), or should I take some profit off the table? 7. If scaling out, how much and at what levels? 8. Is the price action conducive to my original stop/target? 9. Is control between buyers and selling shifting? 10. Given the above, does it make sense to stay in the trade or exit at break-even, before stop, or before target? I know that is a lot to process in a short amount of time, but those thoughts go through my head before and during a trade. For others, it may be much simpler or even more complex. Best of luck.