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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/23/2019 in all areas
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2 pointsThursday 5/23/2019 I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning (only 4.5 hours of sleep). My nerves were OK. I took two live trades with AAPL and MU. For the first time since I have been posting, I was so embarrassed by my poor trading today that I considered not posting today. After about a minute I came to my senses and realized it’s more important than ever to post today. I need this consequence showing everyone who reads tis post the stupid mistakes I made today. When I first logged in this morning I was quite happy to FB with some premarket activity, it usually quiet in the PM. After a quick review I setup my platform for FB to be my primary focus and MU or TSLA as my secondary. I left my platform to get ready for the day and when I came back the AAPL sirens were calling. I saw that the daily and PM chart looked good and again I ignored my back test data and made AAPL my primary focus again. And yes FB made a really nice 2min ORB without me again today. Yes, AAPL had a really nice setup with a really bullish hammer. But my back-test data says this no longer has an 1min/2min ORB edge to it for AAPL. So that is mistake number one. Mistake number two was the premarket candles were respecting the $180 as a resistance level and thus should be my breakout/entry point. I even drew a line on my chart to help with the entry. For some reason I decided to enter at the 50MA instead, though I am not sure why. If I followed my plan I would not have taken this losing trade. Mistake number 2. What it looked like when I took the trade: 1min 5min As usual with AAPL it reversed the instant I clicked the buy button. So much so that my order was filled well below my planned entry point. The price quickly dropped and I was stopped out. I am hoping this has finally taught me to follow my back test data. The only positive thing for this trade is at the last moment my frontal lobes took some control over my reptilian part of my brain and thought with the back test data being so bad at least take half share size. Which I did. So this was only a -0.5R S/O. So this is when things got really bad. I was looking around for another trade and I see MU was setting up, but not sure what yet. If it bounces off of VWAP it looks like a good short or breaks through and engulfs the first 1min candle it would make a strong bullish hammer. So I was watching MU to see what it would do. Now I wish I remember my thoughts during the entry because then I could analyze my reasoning and then confront the poor behavior. But I don’t remember and I am usually good about recalling my thoughts. So the price broke VWAP only slightly and I went long!!! It wasn’t a hotkey mistake, The little I remember was wanting to go long because I remember calculating my stop loss on a stop level BELOW my entry. So I must have been planning a long. But why? I have a picture, in my playbook, of an almost identical setup AS A SHORT. Why would I go long? Well within a few seconds I realized my mistake which then begins the next phase of my disgust for myself. I totally froze. I kept telling myself this looks like a really good short why am I long? A whole minute went by and then finally I heard over the chat Andrew say he was going short MU. That was finally enough to break out of my stupor and exit the trade. So at least I didn’t take the full –R. I have been much better lately about not taking bad setups. So it surprises me not only did I take a bad setup I took the WRONG setup on MU. I can’t remember the last time I did that. My score card for today: What I did good today: At least I knew to go half share size with the AAPL trade. How did I challenge myself today? I still posted my journal entry even though I am completely embarrassed by my trading today. What I did bad today: Fixated on AAPL. Took a completely the wrong setup on MU. What can I do better tomorrow: Well, since its Friday tomorrow at least AAPL is off limits (a new rule of mine on Fridays).
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2 pointsThursday May 23rd, 2019 Sleep: 7 hours. Mood: good ready to trade. i've been thinking about my win percentage now that i've been scaling out and neither my excel sheet nor my Edgewonk journal is calculating what it truly is. for instance this week, i had one winner that i sold in two parts but both my journals show that as two wins. i had no trades Tuesday and three stop outs yesterday so i should have a win rate of 25% but my journals both say 40%. i'm going to start keeping a weekly "real" percent win on my weekly and work on getting that over 50%. almost took MU on the ORBD but didn't then thought about taking it on a double bottom but thought it was too risky. I waited for it to come up to VWAP and then make a new 2min low and got in short, i was short bias because it was rising with lower volume so i thought that if it made a new 5min low it would try for the LOTD again. as soon as i got in i realized it was not close to making a new 5min low and it closed above VWAP. got stopped out on a new 5min high. GOOD: got out of the trade RFI: no 5min signal to get in MOOD: frustrated CONSISTENT: yes Took the same trade again except this time i did wait for a new 5min low but i got short right in the face of the MAs and i went too heavy and got stopped out again. stubborn trading trying to revenge trade the same short again. at least i waited for a new 5min low this time. GOOD: waited for a new 5min low RFI: shouldn't have tried that trade again MOOD: dissappointed in myself for trying another short above VWAP and the MAs, just being stubborn CONSISTENT: yes but a little stubborn on my exit. What i did good today: limited losses What i did bad today: guessing on trades and not waiting for setups. What can i do better tomorrow: trade setups. Other comments for tomorrow: back to sim unfortunately. there's just no reason to trade live with a win percentage of 17%, i'm just wasting money. i don't like having to trade in sim because the emotions just aren't there but until i can reliably trade my edge there's no point in working on emotions. i'm off until Wednesday which is a bummer but i will regroup and come back next week!
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2 pointsMay 22, 2019 - $S (Stopped) I entered too quickly and should not have taken the entry were I did. I entered at the low of the day instead of a pullback towards VWAP and break. My entry should have been 4 minutes later (Maybe) it didn't break the previous candle, so I should not have entered there either but this would have been a better entry than the one I took. This is what happens when you trade a stock that is not in play (Rule 7) Sample Set Results S P P P P S P P S 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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1 pointGuess what! I took $AAPL too at the open, the exact same trade and got stopped out in SIM. For me, the 5 min chart between 6AM till the open had UpTrend. At the open the price went down, but couldn't break down, pulled up and so I went Long, I guess that is probably what you saw too. Could happen to anyone. Glad you shared it though.
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1 pointI'm glad one of us was green today. Nice MU trade. Perfect exit.
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1 point23.Mai.19 Green day. Today $TSLA was in Play, but i never trade $TSLA and $ROKU, too volatile for me. $LB and $BBY had earnings, volume was Ok. I had $CRON, $MU, $AMD, $TWTR and $AAPL on the watchlist. I had $AAPL and $MU at the Open. $MU had formed the 3 candle setup. I took short $MU and Andrew also called out in the room, so I got my confirmation. My Entry was 33.52, Stoploss 33.62 (premarket low & VWAP) 10c. I took one partial too many. The Move was 60c. It formed a double bottom on 1 min and a new Higher low on 5 min, I got all out here. Good: Entered the trade only after the confirmation of setup by $MU. No FOMO about $TSLA or $LB I avoided $LB and $BBY as the volume was not so significant at the open. $X and $JD popped up close to the open, but I ignored them as it was too late. Improvement: My first partial was 1:1(RR), I will need to avoid 1:1, it will not work in the long term. I also took 2:1 and 3:1 which are ok.
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1 pointThanx guys today i did not trade that well, i did end positive though. i made 7 trades, 3 winners and 4 loosers. i went short TSLA before market open because it looked like a head and shoulders and close to the open they tend to move back to vwap once. I didnt want to hold it during the open so i got out but with some profit, i went short again, almost same as andrew i believe but got stopped out and didnt get back in again, that was unfortunate. i was also looking at LB, i went back to vwap and above but got sold off again quickly so i went short, it went down a little but went up again just as fast, my entry wasnt good, but i think it was not a bad try. This move however mad me think its a long and i went in on a little pullback on the 1 minute.i topok one quick partial but then it went down to my entry and i got out because i didnt want to go minus since i had a partial. i think i need to reconsider this as this threw me out of a nice ride. i was very strong so i got back in one more time on a pullback i got out again now just above breakeven, again i need to work on this. i took one more long at the point where it was making the wedge but got out without a really clear reason. but if not i would have probably get stopped out on the last wig down before it eventually popped... i took a shot on mu for a short at vwap, got stopped out at a bad spot, should have gotten out bit earlier. not great trading today, getting out early on a winner is not good trading . its been many times now i get stopped out on something that is just a short spike. i need to decide to get out more based on price action instead of entrypoint i think. but this could be very dangerous too... Still i may need to take a wider stop on some trades.
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1 point22.Mai.19 Red day. I had a good Premarket analysis and most of my expectations came out well, but still I lost in my only trade of the day (on $PINS). It is a lengthy journal today. I was keen on $TGT and $LOW earnings. But my final watchlist was $CRON, $PINS, $SE and then $TGT, $LOW. Apart from that I had few other stocks I wanted to check at the end of the day($QCOM, $BYND etc.,) The reason for picking $PINS was that it was hanging by a thread to fall down below the PCL and YY low on daily. The premarket low was $25.12 and it had the setting to come down till $23. $PINS indeed dumped after the premarket low of $25.12. The reason for picking $CRON was it gapped up while most other stocks gapped down with $SPY. More importantly it was sitting above the 20MA on the daily, and it had the setting to go up till $17.3 once it popped above the 20MA ($15.76). $CRON did popup till $16.48 and was a great 5min ORB. The reason for picking $SE was that it had gapped up due to earnings, but it had a high short float of 41% ($TSLA short float is 28%). Shorts tend to cover when the stock gaps up. I have never traded $SE before, and that is why it was no 3 in the list. $SE did popup and ended at premarket high of 34.85 (although tough to trade) Why i didn't pick $TGT and $LOW as first choice. Though $TGT had gapped up, it had 200 MA and 50 MA as resistence on the daily, I was not sure how it will play out. Similarly, $LOW had gapped down but I wasn't sure how it will play out around $100 support level. Eventually $TGT did close below the 200, 50 MAs on the daily and $LOW paused at $100 and eventually went down till $97.50. Back to my $PINS trade. I had $CRON and $PINS on 2 montages. $CRON went down at the open and i was thinking may be it will trace it back to 9MA daily and continue to dump. It took 5 mins for the price to be bullish again. In the mean time I already jumped Short into $PINS the moment it broke the $25.12 level. I had given only 10c stoploss (till VWAP). But the price traced back to premarket high (25c) before it dumped. I was just watching the price to cross my stoploss and go against me, but eventually stopped out. Then the dump came which is what I expected. Entry: 25.10, Stoploss - 10c (VWAP) Profit1 - $24.4 (RR-3/1) Profit2 - $24.1 (RR-10/1). Stopped out at $25.32 Good: Premarket analysis was good. And most of them eventually would have worked out. I don't think I made a mistake in keeping VWAP as stoploss, it has worked for me before and this was one off. Improvement: The volume was low at the open and the price tends to fluctuate big due to that (like a low float). The spread is also high. When this happens wait for 15 mins. I learnt this today. After 15 mins when volume came in, $PINS traded very nicely. I just now noticed that there was no candle formation on the 9.30, Nothing, no body, no wick. I should wait for the setup to pan out 100% instead of jumping in the moment it meets my target expectation. I let the price go past my stoploss. I would have stopped out early, but having one trade per day is playing out in my mind again. I don't want to miss the party.
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1 pointDid you have a stop order already set in the system? If you did and it's the error I think it is, it's because of the way DAS compiles the order. Example [just tested this]: QCOM is SSR: QCOM Long, Qty: 50, $69.25 QCOM Stop Order in Place, Qty: 50, $69.00 Sell 25% Position --> Rejected w/ same error. Clear QCOM Stop Order Sell 25% Position [same command] --> Order Fills What's happening is that DAS see's the Stop Order as an unfilled (pending) order, any additional order (even one that sells your position) is considered on-top of the pending order. If you add the Stop-Order qty with the Position scale-out qty, you get a SHORT position. DAS rejects this because of the SSR. A similar thing will happen when up against buying power limits (DAS uses the offset from the Stop-Order qty + Scale-Out qty to reserve more buying power than what is actually needed, rejecting if you don't have enough). The Fix: Clear any pending Stop Order and recreate afterwards.
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1 pointIf you're using the DOLLAR RISK version, the initial BP calculation is calculating the Maximum Affordable Shares -- the shares your buying power can afford to buy. In this scenario, if you selected 50% BP, your risk would still be at $50, but the Maximum Affordable Shares calculation would now be cut in half. This only comes into play if you're doing position sizes that bump up against your actual leveraged buying power. I'll be including it when I release the video along with a bunch of other things. Yes, you can type whatever you want. The new version will have the SMRTM in it. Yes, I'll be releasing them by the end of this month. Been a hectic year so far as I had many projects come due at the same time. I've got a lot of stuff brewing that I can't wait to share. V1.5 will be out this week with the following changes: - Bug Fixes - Price Target Hotkey - Range Order Hotkey - Zoom Y Axis Hotkeys I just have to nuke my Excel as it keeps locking up with the latest version of Windows. Along with the video and the new version (I want to launch both together)
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1 pointmay 22, PL does not matter at this time i took 5 trades, 3 winners and 2 loosers. first qcom. i had my eye on it on the premarket and it looked like it wanted to break the premarket high, it broke it in min2, it went to test that level once but quickly got up again so i went long, stop would be a break below the support line. my target was 71,34 level. i took a partial then another which i actually tried closer to my target but was not that great, probably just popped back. then i got lower and i got out just above break even, from there it went actually to crack my target so maybe i should have stayed in. i went long once more after it bounced back from the support, my stoploss would have been below the support but i waited too long , this was a very bad trade. i also trade SE im trying to put more emphasis on the 5 min, there was an engulfing candle on the 5, most of the time it goes lower from there so i went short, it was at the low from the premarket so maybe a bit risky. i didn't really have any target nearby so i hoped for a big move but that didn't happen, still definitely not bad, my last partial was at break even which turned out to be just a spike but thats ok. i think this trade was ok i also traded roku my first trade, was pretty bad more like an impulse, there was this long wick on the previous candle and i went long but i really should have waited for some confirmation if this was actually gonna be a long so i got out and good thing i did. i continued watching roku i wanted to get in earlier around the moving average but i hesitated a bit. my stoploss would have been above the moving average, not a great entry. my last partial was too early but i knew that, there wasn't much shares left. i had more winning trades then loosers but 1 looser i let go too much so not good winning trade could have been better entry, it was too risky. i did try to pay more attention on the 5 then i did before. i will continue doing that, but i feel i need to see the 1 for a good entry