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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/03/2019 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Hey traders! You know me as Matt R, blowing up the chat with Pivot alerts. I never traded with pivots before about a month ago, but turned them on one day by accident and man, was I glad I did. I did some research on them and it's changed the way I'm trading. I'm calling out stronger supports, taking better less risky trades, and getting out much safer than I was before. For those who don't know what pivots are, here is a great article to start on: https://thesecretmindset.com/pivot-points/ Tells a little about them, how they're calculated, and taking some basic pivot trades. In my opinion, they're just strong reversal trades, but instead of you going on your own and trying to see a W, or head and shoulders, or ABCD, or any other things that are subjective, this is a level that every single trader with a computer has access to, and is staring them in the face. They are numbers that DO NOT CHANGE!! ALL DAY! Everyone on the planet has the exact same numbers. And you know what else that means? Computers have them too. Which, in this case (and not usually the case in day trading) is great. So have I figured it out and gotten 100% success? No. There are some times that I get faked out, just like any reversal. But my stop losses are shallow and my $10 and $20 losses are manageable when the rewards are so great. And now, I've started noticing even more trends with these. Here are the two main trends that I see on these trades: 1) NEVER take a pivot trade that is going against the stock (short a stock going up, long one going down) unless it CROSSES A MOVING AVERAGE! Just because the stock hits a pivot doesn't mean it will reverse. A lot of times a strong stock will just blast right through. I have examples of this in all three charts below. 2) If you do take a trade that bounces off a pivot and then crosses a MA, beware of normal resistances, like VWAP, other resistance, HOD, Open, etc. I have found that three (3) 5-min candles in a row or a MA cross of any kind mean the trend is possibly over and the pivot reversal could be done. COULD BE. Just keep your finger on the trigger. These things are not bullet proof, and are subject to the same issues other trend trades are. People can always change their mind, or news can come out, or whatever. We will not always bounce happily from one pivot point to another. That's it so far. I attached some photos of some charts of trades I did. I took a few false pivots and tried to figure out what happened. Each time, it was because I broke one of these two rules. The other thing you need to know is that you could be buying or selling on a bounce. That is ok. Pivots bounce 2, 3, 4, or even 5 time before breaking, especially over slow periods like lunch. See the SQ example 1. You need a lot of patience with this strategy. If you took the trade at the first bounce, you would have been at break even for some time. Stop losses are your friend here. Which leads me to rule #3. 3) Set your stop at a pivot trade above the highest candle wick above the pivot, which really shouldn't be more than $0.10-0.20 or so. See, so your risk on these trades is very small, so you can price/buy shares accordingly. As far as price targets for these, obviously the next closest pivot is the end target, unless the move is breaking one of the main rules! (It's not near a MA, no supports in sight, etc) Just pay special attention to each 'obstacle' as I call them. Once you've passed another one, it's one step closer to finishing the Pivot journey. The final thing that's exciting about these is holding a position long or short that's approaching them. In the last photo, NVDA was a trade I had long from open from another strategy. I held that puppy until $144.50 because of these rules (no breaking MA at pivot, etc). I hope this article helps! Again, this is what I've seen, practiced, and read. Typical disclosures, don't listen to me, I'm a nobody, do your own research, etc etc. However, these PPs are very exciting and I hope it will help all of us be more confident and able traders. Anything to give us a leg up over those other people, right? See you guys in the chat and let me know if you start seeing additional trends for us all to become aware of! Thanks guys! Matt R
  2. 1 point
    January Recap Hello Bear Bull Traders! Thursday completed my first month of live day trading. i've been using Edgewonk since Jan 1 and i thought i would share some of my interesting stats. I feel like i'm doing worse than the numbers show. i'm in the red and that's to be expected but without commissions i'm only down about $30. unsurprisingly, paying 20% ($2) on top of a full R loss ($10) is adding up and i've paid about 5x my losses in commissions. I'm ok with this, i'd rather lose small and eat the high commissions now instead of not being able to emotionally control my trades. One thing that is bothering me is my win rate is only 44%. so i will be working on taking better setups in February to improve this to at least 50%. My R/R planned is good at 2.29 but my executed R multiple is only 0.45. i need to do better on the trades that are going my way. I wanted to dive deeper in to my winrate and I before i saw the numbers i would have guessed that my ORBS and trades in the first 15 minutes were what's killing me. to my surprise, it's my trades from 10 - 10:30 that i'm doing the worst in. also by setups, the long and shorts i'm taking at the VWAP are not working: So pretty much i need to avoid taking trades off the VWAP (short and long) and reversals without clear signals. I'm trying to get in on the first change of direction and a V reversal rarely happens and i'm just getting chopped up. These trades are clearly not working and if i eliminate these trades, i should see some improvement in my P&L. Goal for February is to only take the setups that work (ABCD, ORB, MA TREND, DOUBLE B, BULL FLAG) and focus on nailing those setups. My best setup is taking a long (or short) that's above (or below) all the moving averages that i can get in on a pull back to the MAs between 9:30 and 10:00. if i just did that trade i would be much more successful than i have been. i'm going to make more effort to hunt for that setup. here's some other stats that i keep. Like Andrew said in his recap maybe a week or so ago, sleep is crucial and i can already see that in my stats: Also if i rush in to the trading day, i'm probably going to lose money: thank you all for reading, have a great February. Trade safe and smart!!
  3. 1 point
    Wow, just completed my third full month of being live. Man time passes quickly, it felt like just yesterday I was attending my first meet up in Los Angles getting ready to start the simulator. Now, I am having the best time of my life every morning trading in the market and being a part of a great community of traders. Weekly Analysis of trading This week I was only able to trade 4 of the 5 days as I had to attend a conference which kept me away from the open. This was the first week that I was trading with my new sample set and position sizing. I was a little nervous the first couple of days, as I was not completely confident in my ability to execute my new hotkeys. As the week progressed I was much more confident with this and my nervousness dissipated. On the days I could trade my edge appeared 4 times. I took 2 of of the 4 edges. I did not take my edge on $HOG as the bid-ask spread was too big, and I did not take an entry on $AMD as I was already in a trade with $GE. I am just not ready to have two positions opened at the same time right now. I will say that I did think the trade on $GE would not work, and I actually hesitated a little on the entry because of it. I forced myself to take it anyways because it met my trading criteria and wouldn't you know it the trade worked. I was wrong, but I was glad that I forced myself to take the trade to help myself start thinking in probabilities. Weekly Overall Self Rating: I am very satisfied with how I traded this week. Daily Goal Hit – 4 of 4 Daily Max Loss – No longer Tracking, monitoring just to ensure I don't go over Goals for the month progress 1. For the month I traded outside my edge 3 times all of which were losses. 2. Changed how I take Share Size. I am now taking share size based on fixed $ amount per trade. I also adjusted my profit taking plan. Risk Controls 1. Did not trigger Max Loss control. 2. I did not hit Max Shares traded in a day. Trading Methodology 1. This weekend I also added strict criteria for taking profits. As I am trading with CMEG, I have found you have to be very selective on when to take profits otherwise you are giving the money you make back in commissions. I have 3 profit taking plans depending on how the stock and lvl 2 data moves. Plan A - 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1(this allows me to be at break-even if the stock moves back to my entry point), All out at Profit Target Plan B - 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1, 1/2 at profit target, all out at technical level or my first out. Plan C - 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1, 1/2 out near the profit target if stock stalls near it, All out at the Profit Target or my first out. Sample Set Tracking P G 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 P - 1:1 than Break-even G - Hit Profit target R - Stopped out
  4. 1 point
    Very useful for when you place in the wrong spot. Much better than right-click > remove > re-add. DD.mp4
  5. 1 point
    Jan 28, 2019. I was watching NVDA, VALE, MU, AMD. Trade on NVDA: this one was pretty weak from the beginning. I tried to go short in the third minute, but i didn't get fill. Then after the 5 min when i see another 1 min red candle i get in the it drops 1 dollar but i didn't cover, it came back and i get out. Learning: When a stock is to extended from PCL don't get to greedy. I am testing too, if a stock keeps below VWAP in 1 min chart for about 15 min or longer, when it crosses the VWAP is a long. Trades on VALE: Watching 1 min candle when it crossed the MA's i went long (the correct one is to go long when one candle cross the VWAP) and get out when it crossed below the MA's. Then i get in short (Andrews go long at the same price, that freaks me out, but my stop loss was over the previous 5 min candle. Both makes money, one long and the other short). I added to my position at the top of the previous candle and get out to quick as always (working on that), i should wait to the LOD.
  6. 1 point
    To start off, I did not see the word ''Journal'' in your initial post and I think this is where the problem is. Here is a list of things you can watch IF you have been journaling your trades : 1) Your stop loss : where are they situated ? in air ? on feeling ? on a technical indicator ? a price level? new 5 minutes high or low ? It needs to be somewhere for a reason 2) Your entry: Do you anticipate or enter when lvl breaks? On moving average ? Important lvl of Support and resistance ? 3) Your Sizing according to stop : Do you stop out BEFORE your actual real stop ? 4) Your trade management wich include the way you scale out. Wich can make or break your overall profit and Risk : reward 5) The stocks you decide to trade, Whats the float, did it gap up or down more than x% ? 6) What patterns are you trading ? Are you going with your mood, experiencing, or do you have ONE OR TWO pattern that you are trying to master 7) are you revenge trading ? Are you chasing ? are you averaging down ? 8 ) Whats your Win Rate % ? 9) What is your average winners $ ? 10) What is your average losers $ ? 11) Do you cut your losses ? If you Risk 1% per trade, aiming for 2:1 Risk:Reward, and your Daily Profit target is 1% , it doesn't make sens, your target should then be 2% daily AT LEAST Here is what I came up with : I calculate everything in ''R'' wich is What I risk per trade in $ (mine is 30$ for now with a 3.5K account) lets say 1% then RISK PER TRADE : 1R MAX DAILY LOSS: 2.5R ( Why not a round number ? Because sometime trade is just no going anywhere and I get out without it going to my stop) DAILY GOAL : 4R ( To me it is not to high because of my style of trading wich is more riding the trend for big bucks) A scalper/momentum could go for 2.5R or 3R WEEKLY GOAL : 10R PS: Daily Loss and Goal are calculated INCLUDING Commissions When I will be +10R for 2 weeks in a row, I will then up my ''R'' to 50$ instead of 30$ and so on my boy so stop thinking 1% a day is not high enough becasue it is only 50$, when this 1% be equal to 250$ instead of 50$. Thats some serious money. NOW My question to you is what is YOUR bread and butter pattern, where is YOUR edge in the market !? A) Do you prefer to ride the trend or take reversals ? B) Are you more of a ***Scalper ( in and out in seconds ) ***Momentum trader ( couple minutes ) ***Longer Term ? C) What pattern do you like the most, fits your personnality the most ? Stick to it, master it and inscrease ''R'' when you have concistency. Feel free to email me @ [email protected] and Congratulations on your english, it is pretty good Since I started to work harder, I started to be luckier! 🙂 See you in chat Monady
  7. 1 point
    Mohamed, I was using numbers similar to those and also found that it didn't work so well. As you have said, the daily max loss kills your account. But bringing that down and keeping the trade risk the same means you don't have much of a chance if you start with a bad trade or two. My approach was to change to this approach: Risk per trade : = 30$ Reward per trade : N/A (focus on good risk/reward and using proper levels) Daily goal : 50$ (really good days will sometimes be 100$+) Max daily loss : 50$ (will sometimes hit around 75$) A couple of things I have found to be really important: This is the big one: I should rarely hit my stop loss. A typical example would be a by with the candle bouncing off of a moving average after pulling back. The idea I have going into that trade is that the stock is going to move up (let's say it's a long). If it goes under the line instead, then I was wrong. So of course the question then is will it just go to the next moving average which is close by? Is that moving average farther away? Is there anything that's going to keep it from going the wrong way? The point is at this stage I realize that I was wrong and I'm questioning the trade. If I don't have a pretty solid feeling of Plan B like there's another moving average close by that I can wait for, I'll sell it. I really learned this from Andrew. Where Andrew would buy a stock and then start questioning "Well is it really going to do something? I don't know, I'm not feeling so good about it" and then he would sell it. I would be sitting on that stock waiting for it to go all the way back to my Max loss. It's similar to when a stock is moving but then it just starts bouncing up down up down on the 1-minute chart and it's not really doing anything. You start questioning yourself, is this really going anywhere is it going to do something? I'm more likely to sell that stock than I used to be. Before it drops like a rock and I hit my stop loss and feel like I kind of knew that was coming. I can afford to make a small amount of money. I can afford to lose a small amount of money. I really can't afford to hit that Max stop loss in a situation like that. I only scale-out once at 50%. Or I'll just sell the whole thing if I'm at a strong resistance line or am not too sure if it's going to keep going. The point is, the fees are really taking a toll with these small buys. If I do scale out of 50% and I'm hanging on to the rest, I'm really trying to be patient and wait for the close of the 5-minute candle without being able to make a new high. This is what I mostly working on right now. I keep selling too early and then the stock moves on without me. Again, with the fees being such a big part of the picture you need to let these things run when they're going your way to take advantage of what you're already in. Another big one: I only trade 3 to 5 buys a day. Again, with the fees being so important with the small buys you can't really make money doing 15 or 20 tickets. This is also the only way I have found to successfully make myself really be patient and wait for the good setups. That's the thing about Sim, you're not really being impacted by the losses so it's easy to just keep trying keep trying. If I know that I'm going to quit after two more trades I'm going to be really careful about which two I'm going to use for that. I do a screen capture of the five minute and one minute charts of my trades and put them in a document. I also put the profit loss info in a spreadsheet with a graph. But I don't really go over everything until the weekend. I have found that looking everyday doesn't really sink in as much as looking back at the last week and looking at the repeated mistakes that I've made. You know like patterns of things that I'm doing wrong.
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