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Jarad's Premarket Notes

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Tuesday - July 14, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES seeing a return to thew Volume POC after a large Rounded Reversal in yesterday's session (Trend Day with Divergences that reverse direction of trend). We're inside the VP Range; however, typical behavior is to  test the VP Low around 3080 after a return into the range from the other side (high to low or low to high).

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.ec37a9310e922bb3d4e6230e3846c6f1.png

 

 

/NQ had a very aggressive Rounded Reversal in yesterday's session, as we had multiple Volume Gaps (holes or pockets) that were likely to get filled quickly on any selling activity. Similar to /ES, we're inside the VP Range; however, typical behavior is to  test the VP Low around 10360 after a return into the range from the other side (high to low or low to high).

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d98e78b4e80aa4d1629250a404aef399.png

 

/RTY pushed outside the VP Area and re-tested 1450 again (multiple tests in prior sessions) before also having a Rounded Reversal back into the VP Area and coming all the way to test 1400, which is slightly below the VP Low of 1405 this morning. A potential return to Volume POC of 1425 may be likely given the large price movements yesterday before a new directional bias is chosen this week.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d7252e927898eb2521000555060e0727.png

 

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Index ETFs seeing some negative reactions to bank earnings, $SPY and $QQQ losing yesterday lows with QQQ leading the selloff.

Interesting Futures:

Oil Futures down 2.25%, rejecting the bullish pattern again to break 41.

Natural Gas down roughly 1%

Silver down 1.5%, but was in a strong uptrend and due for a pullback.

Bonds up .5%, which is fairly big in general.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Nothing showing yet, relatively strong sectors like Tech and BioTech sold off hardest yesterday.

Weak Sectors: Technology starting off down 1% and Financials started strong and completely fell flat on earnings from some banks.

Things to Watch:

Banks - $WFC, $JPM, and $C. These will decide financial sentiment for today.

$DAL - Earnings

QQQ/TQQQ for technology trades.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Thursday - July 16, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES 

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.8b1c0048a2c4f6da1144b69f66f899f0.png

 

/NQ 

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.5ed14da7796cd69fc981c189a03c9c74.png

/RTY 

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.7d7fe5dd805ee0e8cd0d5a00646d8a29.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Elevated /VX and slightly higher suggests caution

Natural Gas and Oil down over 1%

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors:

Weak Sectors:

Things to Watch:

$JNJ - Channel breakout past few days, may pull back and continue higher above 150.

$TWTR - Issues with Security.

$IWM - Futures show possible breakout of return to VA High.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Friday - July 17, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES remaining above VA High 3188 and building value, looking for a pullback to V POC 3160 given extended move above range and not having tested value area. Alternative Thesis would lead to a strong breakout above the recent highs and exploring prices above 3230.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.8fd20083ff27e2e54382173467c786a6.png

 

/NQ completed a full cycle above VA High 10750 and a major selloff to the VA Low 10500. Recent sessions have been range bound between the two areas with yesterday selling off right into VA Low again. May continue to be bound, but any catalyst along Tech Earnings may break things apart.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.5c1b32456beb3b70193bec3e4fffe28f.png

/RTY moved above the range is prior two sessions and remains above while building value. Although we often look for a return to the VA High 1450 or V POC 1415, the Alternate Thesis remains for a continual move higher and a potential for a Trend higher if we remain well above the range.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.b50e58123c605e25b459b1389abd6b82.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Volatility Futures down 2.5%, lows from past week being broken, I'm noting this as important given the alternate thesis ideas on the major indexes.

Bond Futures aren't up much, but $TLT remains elevated after the breakout last week. Somewhat conflicting areas of interest with the market being 'on the edge' in a lot of areas.

Oddly, the futures are inverted from the Index ETFs, with /NQ strongest. Not sure the reason.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Technology slightly higher and above yesterday's trading range, so expecting some strength into next Volume Area around 107.5. Home Builders and Materials have some potential to break out given daily chart. Semis are also primed for a breakout.

Weak Sectors: Real Estate lower than yesterday's range.

Things to Watch:

$NFLX - Earnings, watch 480 multiple confirmations of level and 490 TFL.

Edited by JaradBBT
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On 6/29/2020 at 5:09 AM, JaradBBT said:

Purpose:

Provide a overview of the markets by using different instruments and evaluating prior activity. Use overview to understand market directionality, strength/weakness, and driving factors. Focus on areas with most potential.

Outline:

My process involves reviewing what the markets did last week using the Index ETFs, Index, and Futures in order to understand the day structure and market profile from the prior session. I will often mark areas of consolidation and volume acceptance as levels of interest to carry forward outside of daily levels and trends.

Once an overview of the market products is assessed, I like to quickly scan the SPDR Sector ETFs for any obvious standouts relative to the current SPY Percentage Change. This is normally done close to Market Open around 9:00 - 9:15 ET.

I like to have a list of candidate stocks that are good representative names for any sectors that are 'in play' relative to the markets. For example, if Energy stocks are moving independent of the markets, I would want to find a good Energy stock that has high Relative Volume and Percentage Change to trade 'the best of the best'.

Instruments:

Index Products:

  • $SPY/SPX/ES Futures
  • $QQQ/NDX/NQ Futures
  • $IWM/RUT Index/RTY Futures

Sector Products:

  • $XBI - BioTech
  • $XHB - Home Builders
  • $XLB - Materials
  • $XLC - Communications
  • $XLE - Energy
  • $XLF - Financials
  • $XLI - Industrials
  • $XLK - Technology
  • $XLP - Consumer Staples
  • $XLRE - Real Estate
  • $XLU - Utilities
  • $XLV -Health Care
  • $XLY - Consumer Discretionary
  • $XME - Metals

Other Products:

  • Bonds: $TLT/ZB and ZN Futures
  • Oil: CL Futures
  • Natural Gas: NG Futures
  • Gold: $GLD/GC Futures
  • Silver: SI Futures
  • Volatility: VIX/VX Futures

Awesome stuff @JaradBBT .....traders don't realize how important the benefit of this type of analysis until they see how it benefits their results....best of all it's very educational and fun at the same time watching the market as a whole animal with stars and stripes changing like a chameleon...you better be well in sync with the market if you want to succeed!

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Monday - July 20, 2020

NOTES:

I removed the Trend Day moving averages given we're evaluating Volume Profile only. I have Extended Hours (Premarket and Aftermarket) highlighted for clarity.

 

Futures Watch

/ES opened Sunday night roughly the same level as Friday close, then pulled back overnight to consolidate near the VA HIgh of 3200. Given the amount of balance we're building in last week's three-day range, approx. 3230/3105, I'd be looking for a break away from this range to get a better sense of directionality. Until then, a move through the Range to retest the lows may be likely before a change of balance.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.e8fd08349ce6e06ebfcbf714f6de63be.png

 

/NQ continues to consolidate in a tightening range (wedge) after the Monday Rounded Reversa; day from the highs. I'd be looking for a departure away from the Range and a break of Wednesday highs and Tuesday lows 10760/10360.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.28fc6d8ff655047ae6d7c4561bd95071.png

 

/RTY consolidating above VA HIgh 1460 and building additional balance higher. I'd be looking for a move above 1480 to begin exploring higher prices up to 1540 and having balance below. Daily Chart looks ready for a breakout.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.1b2aaba26789219fd269b4d8067094a7.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver Futures up 1.5%, breaking yearly high levels and looking to come to test 5Y Highs around 21.25.

Natural Gas down 1.5%, continues to pull back from the move from 1.44 to 1.925, may settle around a healthy 50% and find support for a move higher. I'm looking at the breakdown in 01/16/2020 and the prior support 2.083 as a range that we appear to be bound by over the past six months.

Volatility Futures down 2%, with VIX up slightly .7%. These levels have been support in the past, so we would expect some reactions short term before breaking down or rallying from the 24.8 levels again as we did in early June.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: 

I'll be looking at Technology with some major names reporting this week ($MSFT, $TSLA, $INTC) and the QQQ up today as the strongest index.

Healthcare and BioTechnology also are opening in ATH range on the Sector ETFs, so reviewing these names should provide some strong candidates.

Weak Sectors:

Financials are still lagging after last week's earnings, opening close to last week's Monday open.

Metals are showing strength in futures, but Sector ETF appears to be caught in a large wedge on the daily, so be looking for a breakout in the coming days with 22.50 breakout area above.

Things to Watch:

$BABA - Daily Retracement and breakout this morning, good volume and gap up.

$PFE/$MRNA - Both moving with catalyst on $PFE and $BNTX

Pfizer, BioNTech Announce Early Positive Update From German Phase 1/2 Coronavirus Vaccine Study

$NIO - Oversold bounce with gap support below.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Hello Jared -

Nice pre-market analysis notes.

Question: Are you planning to do this each day ? 

Not sure if this question was already asked in the chat and responded.

 

thanks!

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Wednesday - July 22, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES volatile aftermarket session, I have the recent highs marked from 06/08 and recent 07/15 Resistance, a breakout that occurred 07/20, and a retest that occurred last night. I'd be looking for general Technical Rules where we continue higher on a retracement to Resistance turned Support; a break lower would be an Alternate Thesis and we have room back to V POC (3211 Gravity Point).

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.a6c843dff3fc03ed80287a49e25b444c.png

 

/NQ continues to be quite volatile anywhere above the VA High 10760. You can see the quick return to our Profile Range last Monday 07/13, consolidation over last week, and a violent move higher (algo driven) back to retest the highs almost to the exact mark. We seem to be finding support against VA HIgh this morning, so we also have a Resistance turned Support to watch for our main thesis, Alternate Thesis back into Volume Profile Range.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.ff0255aabe0690d248b5a5bf42635367.png

 

/RTY broke higher from our previous Monday consolidation and previous VA High 1460 into the 1460/1500 range. We've fallen back to V POC 1460 area, so I'm seeing if this acts as support or if we have a quick move down to VA Low 1410 due to the lack of Volume and a Major Pocket.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.855e1e6de72733a21c8e471a028b73de.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver remains very strong up 6% after multiple strong days prior. Volume Profile shows we are due for a pullback, but we haven't seen any signs yet of a pullback to VA High around 20.25. Volatile overnight session.

Volatility up 1.1% and worth mentioning in a slight gap down on other Index Futures.

Crude and Natural Gas both down 1.5%. Crude pulling back to major level 41, expect Resistance turned Support until it doesn't happen. NAtural Gas holding 1.62 well multiple tests and Yearly Lows that were broken recently, but we moved back inside past weeks. I also expect a bounce here over next few days.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Technology and Health Care also up slightly around .5%.

Weak Sectors: Mixed bag, but Energy is down 1.1% after a strong day yesterday, may be a resting day before another big move higher. Financials down .6% as well, so slight correlation.

Things to Watch:

$BLNK - Breakout on Daily above 6.5, we have room to test 8.5 Daily Resistance and above will be 9.2 and 15 on Weekly.

Blink Charging Wins Grant To Deploy 200 Blink Fast Level 2 - 19.2 kW Charging Stations Across Mid-Atlantic Region, No Terms Disclosed

$SNAP - Earnings

$SLV or $PAAS - Silver possible move higher or Reversal.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Monday - July 27, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES opening at 3210.75 and tested 3192 lows before reversing back to V POC 3215 area. We have a Volume Pocket above to get us back to 3260 VA High if we get a rally this week.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.19e4238499c3a35fb6fc0f8c49a2b7d6.png

 

/NQ opened 10490 and tested 10412 before reversing back to V POC 10590 area. We have a Volume Pocket above to get us back to 10825 VA High if we get a rally this week.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.b507a5d1047ae7ae2b1928573e8c5427.png

 

/RTY opened at 1466.4 and tested 1456.2 before reversing back to V POC 1465 area. Structure below VA Low 1455 is poor for a drop back to 1440 range support on higher timeframes.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.a78c2da536edea6400904800fa30c993.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver Futures up over 6% after rallying strong over recent weeks. Nearing 25.12 Monthly Pivot but has plenty of room to continue running higher.

Gold Futures up 1.6%, breaking ATH 1932 and future expiry contracts showing continued strength in the future months.

VIX Index up 2% with Volatility Futures down 1.7%, watching VIX lows around 24 to hold or break down if a rally can't get going.

Natural Gas down 1.1%, slight pullback from retesting Yearly lows support at 1.62.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Metals up 1.1% with strong gold and silver markets. Technology and BioTechnology up .7%, not overtly strong but strong Semiconductors ($SMH 1.8%) and general rebound from last week in QQQ.

Weak Sectors: Nothing weak, Financials down slightly on the premarket.

Things to Watch:

Semiconductors, seems as if lots of rebalancing is occurring leading to nice volatility. We have $INTC last week's earnings surprise and drop, $AMD strong rally, and $TSM ATH gapping higher on news with Intel Production.

$AAPL Active and strong gap from Friday bounce.

Watching Gold Miner Leveraged ETFs ($NUGT / $JNUG) and Silver $SLV.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Tuesday - July 28, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES continues to consolidate within the VA High and Low Range. We tried to climb through the volume pocket above and fell back to balance, so this may dictate a test of the VA Low 3190. Keeping an eye on range of V POC 3214 and 3231 level from previous resistance and breakout areas.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.b2bd4d07a1a494deea860466724363ff.png

 

/NQ passed through VA Range and tested VA High 10755 area before falling back to V POC 10595. We can either find support for another move to and outside the VA High similar to last week or a move through the range to test VA Low 10400 area.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.665aeb009fa82cb0723234fd67d17a7c.png

 

/RTY continues to stay within now lower VA High 1490 and V POC 1465. A move away from VPOC lower has poor volume structure below and may lead to a quick selloff, but above VPOC we simply target VA High again.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.448f69144d6838d2a1c5789ed0112d7b.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver down over 2% after reaching 26.25 highs, may settle down after US dollar Index appears to have settled.

Natural Gas up over 2.5% and holding 1.62 level well, targeting prior pivot high.

VIX Index up around 3%, continues to find support at 24 area and possible breakout above 28.50 or breakdown below 23.50.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Not much starting the day strong, so watching overall strong sectors Tech and Health Care.

Weak Sectors: Metals down 2.5% after Gold and Silver showing topping action, other sectors flat to correlated with SPY, so no interest.

Things to Watch:

Earnings Plays: $PFE, $MO, and $MCD

$SLV - Nice PM range after losing highs.

$TSM - Selling off after major rally yesterday.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Thursday - July 30, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES big movement yesterday breaching the VA High 3245 and immediately falling back into the V POC 3225 which has been climbing slowly in recent trading sessions. I continue to hold Main Thesis that VA Low 3195 needs a test after multiple attempts to break out of Value Area Range.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.81bfb599ea2f491abb81eda120402b98.png

 

/NQ lackluster move higher into a Volume Pocket and quickly back down to V POC 10600, a test of VA Low 10395 Main Thesis given no new highs in recent sessions.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.62ddcf7b83360ba7e8c3ed5b7c1ed570.png

 

/RTY breach of VA High 1490 and rejection at 1500 back to V POC 1480. Similar structure to /ES, I'd be looking for a test of VA Low 1465 multiple support area.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.281aff86b71f3bb7e88c138ea3f8b282.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver down 4.5%, lots of volatility during Federal Reserve Meetings and now gapping lower.

Energy Futures (Oil, Natural Gas) down 1.5%, weak Energy Sector.

Volatility Futures up 5%, VIX up 9%, lots of buying in volatility today.

Bonds are up and $TLT breaking 170 resistance and getting bought higher in premarket.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: None, a few flat sectors (Metals and Communications), but no volume as well.

Weak Sectors: Financials down almost 2% due to bond yields falling lower. Energy down 1.5% weakness in commodities and Financial Weakness correlation. Multple sectors correlated with weak Index ETFs, Technology/QQQ down 1%, SPY/Utilities and Cons. Disc. down 1.2%

Things to Watch:

Silver ($SLV)

Volatility Products ($VXX / $UVXY)

Short Candidates ($BA Continuation, Banks like $C and $MS)

Edited by JaradBBT
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On 7/28/2020 at 7:36 AM, dodgedak said:

Jarad, what does VA stand for? Is it volume average?

Value Area

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Hi Jarad, Appreciate the work! I thought the Volume by Price chart (bar chart to right of candle price chart) is a representative of the distribution chart; usually mean distribution has a single peak, but these always show two peaks. Can you comment on why this is? Thanks!

 

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