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Posted (edited)

Purpose:

Provide a overview of the markets by using different instruments and evaluating prior activity. Use overview to understand market directionality, strength/weakness, and driving factors. Focus on areas with most potential.

Outline:

My process involves reviewing what the markets did last week using the Index ETFs, Index, and Futures in order to understand the day structure and market profile from the prior session. I will often mark areas of consolidation and volume acceptance as levels of interest to carry forward outside of daily levels and trends.

Once an overview of the market products is assessed, I like to quickly scan the SPDR Sector ETFs for any obvious standouts relative to the current SPY Percentage Change. This is normally done close to Market Open around 9:00 - 9:15 ET.

I like to have a list of candidate stocks that are good representative names for any sectors that are 'in play' relative to the markets. For example, if Energy stocks are moving independent of the markets, I would want to find a good Energy stock that has high Relative Volume and Percentage Change to trade 'the best of the best'.

Instruments:

Index Products:

  • $SPY/SPX/ES Futures
  • $QQQ/NDX/NQ Futures
  • $IWM/RUT Index/RTY Futures

Sector Products:

  • $XBI - BioTech
  • $XHB - Home Builders
  • $XLB - Materials
  • $XLC - Communications
  • $XLE - Energy
  • $XLF - Financials
  • $XLI - Industrials
  • $XLK - Technology
  • $XLP - Consumer Staples
  • $XLRE - Real Estate
  • $XLU - Utilities
  • $XLV -Health Care
  • $XLY - Consumer Discretionary
  • $XME - Metals

Other Products:

  • Bonds: $TLT & /ZB and /ZN Futures
  • Oil: /CL Futures
  • Natural Gas: /NG Futures
  • Gold: $GLD & /GC Futures
  • Silver: /SI Futures
  • Volatility: VIX Index & /VX Futures
  • Dollar: $DXY US Dollar Index
Edited by JaradBBT
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Posted (edited)

Monday - June 29th, 2020

Markets closed weak last Friday, June 26th with major index products closing near the lows after a roughly 2% decline throughout the day. Notably Technology and major names like Facebook and Amazon were sold off heavily and led the entire markets.

Sunday Night

/ES Futures opened lower at 2986.25 with low at 2983.5 before coming back above 3000s. Getting above 3025 area would be of interest as that brings us into the major breakdown area from last week.

/NQ Futures opened lower 9785.5 with low at 9780.25 before coming slightly higher. Overall below areas of consolidation from last Friday and still showing weakness.

/RTY Futures opened lower 1362.2 with low of 1359.6 before coming much higher to test 1400. Showing relative strength given already recovered the breakdown area from last week.

Monday Premarket at 9:00 ET

$SPY - Trending higher from Friday low, holding at roughly 0.5% higher near Thursday's low.

$QQQ - Range bound between Friday's low and Thursday's low, roughly flat 0.0%

$IWM - Trending higher off Friday's low attempting to test Friday high, up as much as 1.5%.

Bonds are slightly lower from last week, I expect a small pullback as bonds have had a nice run from the recent lows. $TLT recovered from recent lows at 153.00 area up to 166.5 in after market last Friday, a roughly 8.5% gain in roughly two weeks.

Oil Futures pulling away from 41 Gap Fill Highs, up slightly today.

Natural Gas Futures very strong up 6.25% from recent selloff last week, I expect a strong bounce from these extended yearly lows.

Gold Futures flat from last week, extended at 1800 resistance on /GC. I expect $GLD to have a pullback this week before attempting a breakout.

Silver Futures down slightly after a major run over the past months, consolidating in 18 - 19 range. I expect silver to underperform gold in the coming months, but still remain bullish.

Volatility Futures down 2.4%, with 23/51 day contracts roughly same price (slight contango).

Sectors Premarket at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Industrials with $BA up 6%. Financials with most large bank names up close to 1%.

Weak Sectors: Communications down with $FB down 4%. 

Things to Watch: Since major Tech was down heavily last week, watching $XLK and MAGAF names closely. If selloff continues, other potentially 'risk-off' sectors may get bought at these lows like $XLU (been weak for a while).

Edited by JaradBBT
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Appreciate this overview, thanks Jarad. 👍

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Jarad,

Your summary will allow us a quick read into the market and what many traders may be thinking allows us to get to our watchlist based upon market biases. 

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This is way more useful then MSNBC! I'll be checking this out, thanks J dog! 

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Posted (edited)

Tuesday - June 30th, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES Futures closing at the highs and fading slightly lower into today's PM. Tightening range and consolidation with a volume pocket above to get to the Volume Point of Control (POC).

image.thumb.png.da8d140f015c8c9dbf983f53f627a7c2.png

/NQ Futures closed strong and had a slight fade pullback, currently hovering near the 10,000 mark and no direction clear at this time.

image.thumb.png.d77603f052f52dfd234c0e04d970c8ff.png

/RTY Futures closed strongest yesterday and appears to have tested Volume POC twice. Ideally other markets will drive directionality.

image.thumb.png.d02d4ef77de3a0b96f5f40de43972725.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

$SPY - Flat around 304 area. Market expecting more information before making a move.

Watch 303 area major consolidation yesterday and high volume node.

$QQQ - Flat around 242.75 area, had a major pullback off the 237.35 tweezer (double bottom) lows from yesterday.

Watch 242.46 yesterday pivot high before closing rally.

$IWM - Flat around 141 area, break above Friday highs so showing relative strength for a move higher in the coming week.

Watch highs and lows from yesterday defining the range we're in.

 

Bonds slightly higher, $TLT at a volume node and may consolidate as it did last month between 162/168.5

Oil Futures down 1.8%, but showed some strength in correlation with the markets yesterday, so may be pulling back similar to S&P.

Natural Gas Futures very strong up 3.8% after yesterday strength, watching again today for continuation.

Gold Futures consolidating below 1800 resistance, fairly flat.

Silver Futures flat and volatile range between 17 and 18.5. Not on watch.

Volatility Futures up 1.9%, keep watch for this to show a early signal for market directionality.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: From yesterday, Metals and Home Builders performed well. Volume was light overall across all sectors. Today, watching Technology for continuation and Utilities for a break of Friday highs. Semiconductors ($SMH) are quite strong, so may help Technology carry forward.

Weak Sectors: Financials and Energy are continuing to be the weakest sectors overall, daily ranges are reduced on Energy so possibly slowing momentum to the downside.

Things to Watch:

$WFC due to relative weakness in weak Financials, possibly due to dividend cuts over other banks (failed stress test).

$FB getting away from 220 after two volatile days.

$MU gap up and strength in semis.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Posted (edited)

Wednesday - July 01, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES rallied hard yesterday into the Volume POC 3100 which was the likely probability once reverting back from the Sunday lows. Pulling away from V. POC may lead to another test of 3040 high volume area and lower consolidation area.

image.thumb.png.65d32b3fba7b580aba014c8c2d2d0177.png

/NQ pulled away from Volume POC approx 10000 and is extending past the one SD range. Probability favors a pullback back into the range, but as the strongest sector, the alternate case to retest 10300 is certainly on the table.

image.thumb.png.8b01c5259fa17561a66ed88619a70878.png

/RTY has been oscillating around the Volume POC 1420 area with tight range consolidation on Monday, break away lower into Tuesday before moving higher, and now right back in the area. Given correlations with other markets, look for a tightening range before aligning to the prevalent trend of other products.

image.thumb.png.50964710e8a75ba6e40809bb218b532d.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

$SPY - Starting to trend higher into PM highs, may be attempting to retest 310 and yesterday highs in the afternoon. Expecting some strength and exhaustion into daily resistance levels 310.51 gap entry and 311.61 gap fill.

$QQQ - Flat with yesterday resistance above 248.16 and PM highs. Looking for an extension higher and pullback given futures volume profile.

$IWM - Slightly lower coming into PM highs and yesterday highs 143.62. Daily has 144.50 area as resistance with multiple tests on prior days.

 

Bond Futures lower about .30% and $TLT gapping lower into 162 lower end of prior range.

Oil Futures volatile this morning with large ranges around Volume POC 39.69.

Natural Gas Futures pullback back after a two-day rally from the lows, also pulling away from V POC 1.718.

Gold Futures breaking yearly resistance levels yesterday around 1800 and falling back into the breakout area. $GLD extended past Volume SD Range and pulling back into 166.3 V. POC.

Silver Futures pulling back after strong breakout rally yesterday, very extended looking to revert back to 18.15 top of SD range.

Volatility Futures down 1% pulling away from Volume Range and headed to test lows 30.31.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Industrials with airliner catalyst, Financials trying to break yesterday highs. Health Care with Pfizer catalyst.

Weak Sectors: Materials and Consumer Disc. inside bar starting the day. Tech is starting flat.

Things to Watch: 

$PFE - Pfizer, BioNTech Press Release Confirms Early Positive Data From Ongoing Phase 1/2 Study Of Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate

$UAL - Extending capacity for flights

$FDX - Earnings

Edited by JaradBBT
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Posted (edited)

Thursday- July 02, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES spent most of yesterday hovering around 3100 V POC, with a great defined range of 3090/3110 after the first test of 3090 in the morning session. Currently pulling away to test high end of range and recent pivot highs.

image.thumb.png.1a713eafb0403462085e006a094db856.png

/NQ achieved the alternate case yesterday, reaching right to 10300 before closing slightly lower. We're very extended from our range this morning; however, since we've already shown a move away, be careful for a climactic high as an exhaustion move before returning back to test 10125 top of range.

image.thumb.png.9e099b7a40db4dca4a24833470deded1.png

/RTY tested to top range yesterday before reverting back to V POC and consolidating. Currently breaking top of range, so look for recent highs 1460 area as resistance and a retest of 1445 area if we are to continue much higher.

image.thumb.png.6d20bd93071dbd3c9fe969329931522e.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

$SPY - Up 1.3% and testing 314.5 daily pivot high. Getting above that area may trigger a number of stops and lead to an aggressive gap fill. Look for 315.64 second pivot high and gap fill 317.16/318.22 lows. An unusual activity into a holiday, but we're getting there.

$QQQ - Up 1% after three strong days from the lows set on Monday. Futures suggest it's extended at ATH, but as our overall strongest sector, be careful trying to reverse trend on this with liquidity being low in this area.

$IWM - Up 2.%, leading the bullish day so far after a weak day yesterday (closed lower vs other two Index ETFs). We may be seeing a larger gap up due to the lower starting point, but we're also slightly above 144.50 resistance area which could lead to a triggering of stop losses to go much higher on a breakout.

 

Bond Futures down slightly, $TLT selling off PM after the recent stats on Payroll and Unemployment. Testing 162 low of range, but today is the kind of day to break a range if markets rally higher quickly.

Oil Futures up 1.2% as energy sector is strong testing top of Volume Profile Range.

Natural Gas Futures up 1.3% after pulling back slightly from recent rally, at V POC.

Gold Futures down .7% falling sharply in PM. $GLD testing top of breakout range 165 area.

Silver Futures down .7% falling back to V POC. May consolidate asd market directionality is defined.

Volatility Futures down 5.2% extended away from V POC and showing the opposite profile as other products like /NQ.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Most sectors up around 1-2%, but Financials, Energy, and Real Estate are standing out above 2%

Weak Sectors: None. Always watching other major sectors like Tech and Healthcare for any divergence against a strong market.

Things to Watch:

$C and $JPM great financial names when financials are in play.

Breakout potential in $OXY

Edited by JaradBBT
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Posted (edited)

Monday - July 06, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES opened Sunday night slightly higher than the previous week closing price at around 3121 and have rallied up to their current level. It's important to notice that we're clearing multiple pivot highs and entering a low volume area from weeks ago.

Monthly 1h Chart

image.thumb.png.acca47a0a47a19744e5bc768af4a0a52.png

 

Lower timeframe shows extended outside of our standard deviation range, we have been building volume around 3165 in the premarket and have some general support back down to 3140. SInce we're entering a volume deficient area, I'd like to see a retest of support areas before going higher in order to have a healthier trend to retest 3200.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.8e0bddee013aa1f01016c139f7ecdfa6.png

 

/NQ remains strong and has effectively broken out of a channel high that was used last Thursday for a short play. We continue to move further away from our volume range on multiple time frames, with a few volume areas below us to catch any sort of selloff. I'd be looking for this trendline to act as support in the morning before going higher.

Monthly 1h Chart

image.thumb.png.214a9237f265d3f7d7d4a2b4503bf885.png

 

Lower timeframe shows a similar overview, yet we are building more volume at these highs today vs last week, leading me to think the balance area is attempting to move higher. Below the trendline support is very light on volume, so we'll want a clear move away to avoid a quick drop back to 10400 support.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.ac66ea5f251ba29e26f6de2ddc0b5940.png

 

/RTY shows some strength to finally get out of Volume Profile high and clear recent pivot highs. A strong move higher can lead to an quick move through the low volume area back to 1500, where I would expect some level of resistance.

Monthly 1h Chart

image.thumb.png.44afc204edbe851122401f3a7fbe31fc.png

 

Lower timeframe shows less volume support as we breach the Volume Profile High, so we'll need to build more value around 1460 to get a supported move through the upper price ranges.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.df798b824d5576bb39199e8a7d424522.png

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

$SPY - Gapping up 1.5% into a daily gap range. Overall profile looks good for continuation higher to test PM highs at 321.27 (low of 06/05) and fill gap 318.22. The fact that we are in two daily gaps that formed early in June makes the potential for quick and volatile movements high.

$QQQ - Gapping up 1.5% and clearing daily range trend line. Ideally a pullback to retest support and Thursday highs would be confirmation that the breakout is strong and more upside is expected.

$IWM - Gapping up 2.5%, clearing recent pivot highs and 144.50 resistance. Usually on strong trend days, this index ETF outperforms the rest due to it being relatively weaker overall, so we may see a huge move higher to 146.69 and 150 breakdown candle from 06/10

 

Bond Futures down slightly with $TLT once again at lower end of last month's range 162 area. If the overall markets get a breakout, we may see bonds break down again, but at support I'd expect the opposite to transpire until it's confirmed.

Oil Futures flat after retesting 41.05 gap fill resistance from 03/06. Nice ascending triangle forming on the larger time frames to break 41 and climb higher, watch for confirmation or breakdown.

Natural Gas Futures up around 4.0% and pulling back from 1.864 highs. Expecting a pullback to 1.75 support before going higher.

Gold Futures up slightly after retesting 1785 support area and coming again to test 1800 resistance and yearly pivot highs.

Silver Futures up 2.0% and climbing to retest 18.85 highs. Clearing 19 would be a monthly resistance break to up to 19.75.

Volatility Futures down 3.2% and continuing to sell off against a strong overall market. Coming to retest 27.92 lows and may break to as low as 25 lows in early June.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Financials and Energy over 2%, most other sectors near SPY % change around 1.5%. $SMH Semiconductors also very strong up 2.3% with Tech only up 1.5%

Weak Sectors: None, MEtals, Real Estate, and Home Builders no volume, so may simply be laggards against a fully-correlated market.

Things to Watch:

$TSM- Strong Semis and Emerging Markets over the weekend.

$D - Catalyst news and strong Natural Gas markets with strong Energy, may trade against overall sector.

$BABA - Clearing ATH and  consolidating PM with a breakout of PM high on volume around 9 ET.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Posted (edited)

Thursday - July 09, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES continues to skirt above the Profile Range with 3184 as a recent pivot high (also poor high). Breakout and retest did technically occur over past few sessions, so watching this area to hold above trendline. A break below would target 3132 area as first target for a return to Volume Range.

image.png.cf097eecffef91776c8eee9bd3b34e23.png

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.e4f3e56e3b42e41bff8c013c09ca4e60.png

 

/NQ continues to not back down, having build some volume value around 10600 and well above Volume Range High at 10430. We can certainly continue higher now that there is some price acceptance below, but we are moving on 'borrowed time' that will likely provide a healthy and somewhat quick pullback.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.da7a4fe029c7bdc86791c2b0bd277b73.png

 

/RTY pulled back into the Volume Range after getting overextended into 1465 area on Monday. Usually the first target is the top/bottom of the range (1445/1390 at this time) when you are above/below the range, with the final target the Volume Point of Control around 1423. We've achieved that target and returned back to it after a deeper push below 1400 yesterday. Expect this to lead other markets now that we're back into Price Acceptance; departure away would be leading information used in other sectors.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.2b4482360e5c706d88be8490741d066d.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

$SPY - Opening slightly higher and trending into Daily Highs around 317.50. A breakout today may lead to shorts covering in order to fill remainder of gap 318.22.

$QQQ - Gapping up higher after yesterday strength and continued ATH breakout. Watching closely for continuation to support other market rallies or a breakdown on a momentum loss pattern (ex. Ascending Wedge) to signal a potential short with a nice Risk/Reward.

$IWM - Opening flat and caught in a tight range on the daily between Wednesday Low 139.1 and Monday High 145.69. Given Futures Profile and yesterday bounce and rally, I want to see a retest of the tightening range as a target for a high (around 145) over next two days.

 

Bond Futures flat and dead center in Volume POC, $TLT opening flat and uninteresting at this time.

Oil Futures down slightly, but has been grinding higher into 41 resistance and starting to look like a Flat Wedge with potential to breakout. Watching closely this week for breakout of breakdown at this critical level.

Natural Gas Futures up 2.7% after pulled back slightly yesterday while exceeding the Volume Profile Range. May correlate with Oil strength and lead Energy Sector/Names higher into Summer months where demand tends to be higher.

Gold Futures Slightly lower after becoming extended into 1830 area and well above Volume Range, looking for a healthy pullback to 1800 and top of V Range before continuing higher next week.

Silver Futures Opening higher .70% and also extended past Volume Range, may correlate with gold for a pullback to 18.85 support. Expect Silver to lag Gold if strength continues.

Volatility Futures Down .6% and seems to want to hold above 28 in recent trading sessions, looking for support to crack if markets explode higher or a sharp rally through the Volume Range to test recent highs at 35.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Technology and Communications breaking ATH ($XLK Prior High 108.07) and Pivot High Resistance into ATH Range ($XLC 56.98 into 57.75 ATH).

Weak Sectors: Financials flat, but against rest of sectors relatively weak and daily hasn't shown any rally signals yet with yesterday running right into resistance ($XLF at 23.23). A break of this price may lead to a nice move higher.

Things to Watch:

$BABA - China Stocks continued rally, looking for signs of weakness but none spotted yet.

$NKLA - Continuation from overextended bounce into gap support.

$FB/$MSFT - Strong Communication and Tech into ATH Ranges

Edited by JaradBBT
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Posted (edited)

Friday - July 10, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES at Volume Point of Control, continues to slowly consolidate lower with 3111 area as support.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.5b4f73006c5cef01a5a5e9a4ac98b9f8.png

 

/NQ has built enough volume in these highs to move the High of the Range above the current price, meaning we are seeing price acceptance at these levels and could find another move outside of the range on continued strength.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.79db8ae4743d8bbb2f01ef277e7a80e3.png

 

/RTY Broke the low of the range twice yesterday, but has since pulled back in. Typically a sharp correction from the High/Low back into the profile leads to a move to test the other side, similar to Monday's session into Thursday's low.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d2859ff608facc0aa8c72d4f6746e3db.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

None - Started PM Review late.

Most Futures are sitting below 1% gap up, strongest is Nat. Gas Futures and Silver.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Communications strong bounce and bottoming tail from yesterday session. Industials at Daily MA support. Technology continued strength. 

Weak Sectors: Financials with Bonds rallying yesterday. Energy breaking support levels and at prior pivot support, may try to recover itself today above 34.3.

Things to Watch:

$NIO - Funding Secured 🙂

$AMD - Strong Semiconductors but $TSM is pulling back from China News that Margin Requirements are getting stricter.

$NFLX - ATH Breakout on massive strength this week. Careful for exhaustion signals into a selloff.

Edited by JaradBBT

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Posted (edited)

Monday - July 13, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES opening Sunday night 3183.5 and traded somewhat range bound, testing those lows twice before slightly trading higher into 3204 this morning. We're past the Volume Range High and breaking multiple pivot highs from last week's session, so a return to 3175 support before heading higher would be ideal for strength.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.26873c026e1d20fcbfce2444984ba80e.png

 

/NQ opening Sunday night 10848.5 and trading range bounce until breaking out this morning into 10950. We're right at the Volume Range High and the Profile overall has a lot of weak areas with very little volume, so hoping we can pull back and fill those 'holes' before continuing to head higher, because any downside will be fast.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d1f8a7b3bd60308be3426ec243ee11a5.png

 

/RTY opening Sunday night 1423 and trading range bound into the morning session, still no breakout of the initial highs after Sunday open 1438.3. Inside the Volume Profile Range, so still waiting for some directional bias, using Index ETF for ideas with wedge breakdown failing and retesting 145 on the table.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.0cdcbad8533a7b7589653ed3ee417a1e.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Index ETFs up roughly 1% or higher, $QQQ breaching slightly above Daily Chart Channel high 265 area, $SPY gapping over remainder of overhead gap 318.22 and into 'Island' price levels on Daily Chart, and $IWM back inside daily wedge heading back to test 145 resistance.

Interesting Futures:

Silver Futures up over 3.25% and been rising all morning.

Volatility Futures down 1.8% and back near 27.92 low support  on 07/02.

Bonds down slightly, but $TLT right at daily range support 165.25 area after last week breakout.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Financials gapping up above resistances and up 1.4%. Consumer Discretionary gapping up 1% and ATH on SPDR ETF. Tech is in line with SPY gap up.

Weak Sectors: Nothing showing relative weakness yet.

Things to Watch:

Hard to watch given DAS NYSE Data issues.

Watching Oil Tankers given movement last week ($NAT, $STNG)

Tech for any loss of momentum with a large risk/reward to the downside

$WKHS - Hearing Roth Capital Partners Raised Workhorse Group Price Target From $12 To $27; Unconfirmed

Edited by JaradBBT
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