Tom N - Day Trading Journal - Looking for feedback...

[Christopher 129]

Hey man! I'm not really sure about the fills, I haven't used Kyle's keys live. @Justin would know. 

And just my opinion, a lot of people might disagree, but I think it's reasonable to just stay in SIM until you're getting consistent 5R-10R weeks, which is a lot harder than it sounds if you keep honest records. 

Keep at it!

-Chris

[tntp45 53]

15 minutes ago, Christopher Patterson said:

Hey man! I'm not really sure about the fills, I haven't used Kyle's keys live. @Justin would know. 

And just my opinion, a lot of people might disagree, but I think it's reasonable to just stay in SIM until you're getting consistent 5R-10R weeks, which is a lot harder than it sounds if you keep honest records. 

Keep at it!

-Chris

Thanks Chris;

 

I am on my third month of DAS SIM and never had these issues, if it didn't happen multiple times today I wouldn't be worried about it.  The next step is record my screen so I have all of the info and make sure I am not missing anything.  If it continues to be an issue I will reach out.  Thanks for the tip with Justin..

 

Just FY I am only in SIM.  My point was that if I have a bad day and hit my max loss in SIM, was to stop, journal and reflect.  Then if I jump back in later that day it would just be "practice", similar if you went from live to SIM during the day.

 

Since you  brought it up, what do you think is a good weekly goal for a "good" live trader.  I was thinking that 5R per day = 25R per week.  Do you think this is unrealistic ?  

     My thought process was 5R per day goal.  10R max win to stop.  3R max loss to stop.  With an overall goal of 5R per day.

 

Thanks for the feedback !

 

-tom n

 

 

[Christopher 129]

Ah, my bad. 

So, again this is just my opinion, there are way more experienced people around here. I've been at this everyday for about 9 months now. I think about 6 months in I was starting to reliably break even. Now, after nearly 9 months in, under the condition i trade well 3 to 4 days a week, I'm sitting at a reliable 5R-10R per week. That's with a daily goal in the range of 2.8R-3.3R and a max loss in the range of -2.8R - -3.3R.

Now, it's clear to me that on days I grab 3R-4R off a morning play, I need to give myself the go ahead to push for 5R-10R days. Max loss days really hurt, and you'll have them. For example if  I didn't hit max loss yesterday, and instead had a conservative 2.5R day, i'd be around 11R-12R this week, which would be about 3.3% of my account, which is actually insane if you extrapolate that out for even just 6 months. Instead, i'm around 5.5R. That's a big difference, and all it took was one day getting just a little too loose with an opening play, getting stopped out, then being slightly tilted and chasing a couple not so great trades. I feel like the more I trade the more I see that hitting the A+ setups and managing your winning trades is the easy part, keeping your losses small and infrequent is the hard part, it's the latter that drops the 90% out of the break even / profit bracket. 

If you can very consistently get in the range of 10R-30R weeks, then you can day trade for a living, period. A  5R daily goal sounds great, a 25R weeks sound great, and 100R months SOUND GREAT. But imo, you'd have to be a badass trader with a lot of experience to get those numbers. If you're pulling 100R months, i'd guess you're somewhere in the top  .2% of traders. Hell, I think having very consistent 40R-50R months probably puts you in the top 3%. I have no data to support this, this is just what I feel to be the truth, or at least close to it. 

I think a 3R daily goal in the beginning is a great place to start. Also, any trade that you take should have the potential to hit at LEAST 2R. 

If you nail an awesome ORB at the opening for  3R, nice! you made it! If you're feeling good, keep going, but don't let yourself dip below 1R. 

if you get stopped out once at -1R, 2 good 2R plays or a great 4R trade will get you to daily goal.

if you're down -2R and against the ropes, then 1 good 2R trade will take you back to break even.

gl! : ) 

-Chris 

*edit*

I should also add that I only trade the first 30-90 minutes the market is open, if you're trading all day then maybe a 5R-10R daily goal is more realistic? But I'm not sure..  

Edited July 24, 2020 by Christopher Patterson

[tntp45 53]

On 7/24/2020 at 10:58 AM, Christopher Patterson said:

Ah, my bad. 

So, again this is just my opinion, there are way more experienced people around here. I've been at this everyday for about 9 months now. I think about 6 months in I was starting to reliably break even. Now, after nearly 9 months in, under the condition i trade well 3 to 4 days a week, I'm sitting at a reliable 5R-10R per week. That's with a daily goal in the range of 2.8R-3.3R and a max loss in the range of -2.8R - -3.3R.

Now, it's clear to me that on days I grab 3R-4R off a morning play, I need to give myself the go ahead to push for 5R-10R days. Max loss days really hurt, and you'll have them. For example if  I didn't hit max loss yesterday, and instead had a conservative 2.5R day, i'd be around 11R-12R this week, which would be about 3.3% of my account, which is actually insane if you extrapolate that out for even just 6 months. Instead, i'm around 5.5R. That's a big difference, and all it took was one day getting just a little too loose with an opening play, getting stopped out, then being slightly tilted and chasing a couple not so great trades. I feel like the more I trade the more I see that hitting the A+ setups and managing your winning trades is the easy part, keeping your losses small and infrequent is the hard part, it's the latter that drops the 90% out of the break even / profit bracket. 

If you can very consistently get in the range of 10R-30R weeks, then you can day trade for a living, period. A  5R daily goal sounds great, a 25R weeks sound great, and 100R months SOUND GREAT. But imo, you'd have to be a badass trader with a lot of experience to get those numbers. If you're pulling 100R months, i'd guess you're somewhere in the top  .2% of traders. Hell, I think having very consistent 40R-50R months probably puts you in the top 3%. I have no data to support this, this is just what I feel to be the truth, or at least close to it. 

I think a 3R daily goal in the beginning is a great place to start. Also, any trade that you take should have the potential to hit at LEAST 2R. 

If you nail an awesome ORB at the opening for  3R, nice! you made it! If you're feeling good, keep going, but don't let yourself dip below 1R. 

if you get stopped out once at -1R, 2 good 2R plays or a great 4R trade will get you to daily goal.

if you're down -2R and against the ropes, then 1 good 2R trade will take you back to break even.

gl! : ) 

-Chris 

*edit*

I should also add that I only trade the first 30-90 minutes the market is open, if you're trading all day then maybe a 5R-10R daily goal is more realistic? But I'm not sure..  

Thanks Chris !  Appreciate your thought processes & strategies !

Congrats on your consistent 5-10R per week !

Let's Keep it Rocking !!

 

-tom n

[tntp45 53]

2020-7-27 <SIM>

So a few things first.  One, I completed reading Anna Couling's book "Volume Price Analysis.  With that I added the Volume by Price indicators (along with VPOC) on my charts.  I learned a lot from her book, but one point that is resonating that I have heard from multiple sources is "to make sure you have confirmation on multiple time frames before you enter into a trade."

So with all of that, my first trade was not until 28 minutes into the open.  No 1/2/5/15 minute ORBs.  Also, only three trades for the day (although I had different commitments through the day)  And a GREEN DAY !  Small green but we will take it !

Trade 1 +.053R

$AMD

Took $AMD long for a reversal.  Late entry cost me share size and return but I am ok with that today to trade with confirmation.

Trade 2  -0.27R

$INTC

My analysis was that $INTC was starting to consolidate for the day.  One of the points I got from Anna's book was that stocks only move three directions; up, down or sideways.  Most traders don't like sideways, why not ?  It is setting up a support and resistance levels that we can trade off of for the next move.  So I set alerts in DAS for the top and bottom of the consolidation range.  With that I was not happy with the price action after I entered and bailed out on the trade.  

Hindsight 20/20 this trade went with my original theory and traded almost all the way down to the next level.

Would you have stayed in this trade ?

I know part of the reason I pulled the trigger is I did not want to ruin my small profit for the day.

Interesting to me how much slower stocks move in the latter half of the day compared to the open.  Need more patience for later in the day ?

Trade 3 +.095R  Trade of the Day !

$SWIR

The price action had gone away from my entire watch-list so I moved to the scanners.  I have had a lot of success using the Turbo up/down scanners.

15 Minute chart for big picture:

One minute chart for detail

Well this chart looking backwards makes me look like a genius.

Truth is I quickly lost confidence in my trade over the next few candles when I jumped in.

I held in there, made a small profit over several partials and decided to leave a small amount in with a break even stop.

WOW look at that candle at 15:28 !!  I could get used to that !  It moved so fast.  I partialed on a bounce up.  Had a few more shares run all the way to VWAP.  The constructive criticism here will have to be partialing, but I feel good about this trade overall.

Partials:

Recap:

Overall a green day ! for +1.20 R

Really slowed everything down today and waited for confirmation.

 

 

 

[tntp45 53]

BBT Scanners

The more I look at these the more I think they are golden.

Posting this link for reference:

 

[Christopher 129]

Consolidation is where it's at man, it's where trends start from. 

Bears push down and wait, we get consolidation on lower volume testing bull sentiment. No bulls present, Bears rally again. That's how I see it anyways.

Nice job today, keep it up!

 

 

[tntp45 53]

4 hours ago, Christopher Patterson said:

Consolidation is where it's at man, it's where trends start from. 

Bears push down and wait, we get consolidation on lower volume testing bull sentiment. No bulls present, Bears rally again. That's how I see it anyways.

Nice job today, keep it up!

 

 

 

Thanks Chris !

Appreciate the encouragement !

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by tntp45

[tntp45 53]

 Such an awesome post...wanted to share it here...

 

 

[tntp45 53]

2020-7-28 <SIM>

TRADE 1A

$TSM +1.2R

2MIN ORB

Went short for a 2 Min ORB on TSM.

Super fast moving action.    A lesson on how fast the action is first thing versus late in the day.

Past my break even and closed out all in the same one minute candle...

Then...

Trade 1B $TSM

Since I use Kyle's Hot Keys I had a stop order out for this stock...and it tripped.

Lost all of my profit and then some...

Lesson to be learned here...

-1.99R

Total Trade 1 = 0.75 R

Took quite a break.  Caught my breath.  Highlighted the cancel order hotkey on my keyboard...back in action.

TRADE 2 $INO

+.08R

Went short for a reversal.  Took a big partial for little profit.  Then stopped out at break even.

Had I let my original stop would have made 2:1 at my target...

 

TRADE 3 $INO - Trade of the Day !

ABCD Pattern

Felt good because I waited for confirmation candles and confirmation in multiple time frames.

Small return for a good trade.

Trade 4 & 5 $INO

Triangle

Now here is a setup that I have never studied...

Although the pattern was so clear I had to take the trade...

Sorry, graph should say 4 & 5...

On trade 4 I thought I had waited for a confirmation candle but I was to early.  Stopped out for -1R.

Went back in on trade for because I was confident. (5)

Enter at 21.32, 10% partial at 21.37.

For the second time today I got stopped out at break even when the stock would have continued to run.  Now with that, it was very choppy to get anywhere as everything was today.

The strategy is proper though correct?  Move your stop to break even after your first partial...

+.03R

Trade 5 $KODK

Reversal -1R

Waited for confirmation in different time frames.

Stopped out to lose a full R.  Tried fighting the trend on this one.

Conclusions:

The extra order on  the stop loss is still killing me (Trade 1B)  Not 100% sure how else to manage it except to make sure I cancel the order using the Hot Key when I am done.  I want to continue to use hard stops for the immediate future.

Twice today I got stopped out at break-even when the stocks would have continued to run.  I am feeling the same here, not to adjust this strategy as I think it is sound over the long run.

Very happy with Trade 3 ABCD.  Low return, but waited for multiple confirmations.

Dabbled with a triangle pattern, that is what SIM is for !

-2R for the day.

My focus as of late has been to get confirmation on multiple time frames and and confirmation candles.  I felt like I did this well all day.  A few lessons to be learned today.  Will keep moving forward !

 

 

[tntp45 53]

2020-7-30 One and Done ! <SIM>

$UPS +2.85R

One Minute ORB

Top stock on my watch list, went short on minute two.

Two 50% partials and then all out on minute three.

I have lowered my daily goal from 5R to 3R.  I want to improve my probability of back to back green days.

Good news here, ok great news, utilized my clear orders to take my stop out.  This is what hurt my Tuesday.   Lesson learned !

Short of the 3R, but close enough.  Another factor to hang it up for today, if Brian and Andrew are having a tough day...why would I need to push it!

ONE AND DONE !

 

 

[hailchaser2 185]

I have my HotKeys all start with canceling orders (I’ll have to check the exact wording, but I think it’s CXLALL) that way when I take a partial, it removes my older stop order. Then I hit the Break Even hotkey.

[tntp45 53]

1 hour ago, hailchaser2 said:

I have my HotKeys all start with canceling orders (I’ll have to check the exact wording, but I think it’s CXLALL) that way when I take a partial, it removes my older stop order. Then I hit the Break Even hotkey.

Awesome !  Can you help me find the script for the Break Even HotKey ?

[hailchaser2 185]

3 minutes ago, tntp45 said:

Awesome !  Can you help me find the script for the Break Even HotKey ?

Yeah, no problem, I’ll copy it tomorrow and post it here. 

[tntp45 53]

15 hours ago, hailchaser2 said:

Yeah, no problem, I’ll copy it tomorrow and post it here. 

Gracias !

7/31 - Found it !  Thanks !

Edited July 31, 2020 by tntp45