Rob C

Great entry on TEVA!

Monday 02/24/2020 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 2 live trades this morning with MSFT and SPCE. My watchlist: AMD, GILD, MSFT, AAPL, ROKU, and SPCE. I was keeping my eye on MSFT in the PM. There was an interesting PM level at 168.62. When it broke down I went short with half shares since it was PM. There was a nice spike down to 166.90 that I missed. It was way too fast. I glanced at L2 and glanced back and the move was over. I exited before the open for a small win. SPCE opened with no volume but I really like when the 200MA-1min can be used as a target. It seems to have this price pull in the first minute after the open. I went long with a stop at 29.50 (a price respected in PM). Shortly after theopen price popped very quickly to my target. I like that I was fast enough to catch a partial there, but since it was my target I should have taken off more shares. I just felt it was going to go a lot higher. The price quickly fell and I was out at B/E. What did I do good today? Good use of PM levels and keeping share size small. What I am grateful from today? Pretty lucky getting that fill on SPCE. Happy with my day.

I tried both Traderview and Edgewonk. Both gave me erroneous data. I create and cancel multiple orders during a trade. Seems like neither can handle that well. So I currently calculate stats in Excel as well. Have you tried Chartlog yet? Since you can contact the developers directly through BBT we should probably try it.

All that is important is your setups give you consistent results, good or bad. So you can determine what works and make adjustments. Trading in Rs helps with that. Consistent risk should help provide consistent results. So using a different size R for different setups is fine as long as it is consistent within the setup to analyse later. I like the average profit divide by the sigma as a good indicator on the quality of the setup. Then use this table (from Van Tharpe Institute):

Kyle will host a Success Webinar on Wednesday, March 4th at 8:00 pm explaining his hotkeys and taking questions. Also here is the link in the BBT forums. https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/716-das-dynamically-calculate-shares-on-risk-or-risk-hot-key-configuration-updated-91019-v21/ You can use an Excel sheet, I have heard of others use one. I personally didn't. Now for the past ~1,5 years I have used my own version of hot keys to auto determine share size. It is much less eloquent than Kyle's. But saves me a couple of clicks which I can't afford at the open.

Excellent journalling!! Way better than mine.

Friday 02/21/2020 I had a well-being score of 7.5/10 this morning. I took 1 live trade this morning with DBX. My watchlist: DBX, SFM, S, WORK, LTHM, and FSLR. I had my eye on WORK and DBX heading into the open. Both were creating a PM level near the HOPM. Then DBX made a new high in PM and I went long (90 sec before the open) with 1/4 share size. DBX opened with huge volume and strength. 3 seconds after the open I saw a large ask 25 cents above current price. I went long and got a worse fill then expected (and I expected bad). So I was too far from my stop ($22.07) or I have 1.7 times the number of correct shares. But luckily the price immediately moved higher and I partialed back to correct share size. I took a few more partials then exited when it created a descending triangle and broke through support. What did I do good today? Good use of L2 and reducing share size. What I am grateful from today? Lucky with the good price action. It’s dangerous taking so close to the open. What I need to improve on? Expect more of a slide at the open. Should have taken much less shares. Have a good weekend!!

Yes, that opening volume on SIX was concerning. There were a few seconds that I thought my DAS crashed and I lost the live feed.

Essentially, all systems are based on "R" risk. Instead of thinking how much money or shares you have in the stock most traders try to think in terms of risk which we commonly call "R". This way all of you trades have a consistent risk and your system should work consistently. When I didn't use "R", as luck would have it, my winning trades tend to be small and losers big. Actually this is human nature since we will risk more to prevent losses than to gain wins. Yes the BBT videos and Andrew's book explains "R". Essentially, it is the monetary distance from your entry to your stop. If you plan on entering the trade at $50.25 and there is a strong respected level at $50, where the price drops below you will stop out, your R=25 cents for this particular trade. If your target is at $50.75, great your risk to reward ratio is 2 to 1 and a good trade. If you get stopped out you lose the 25 cents per share and thus you lose one "R". You should always only lose one R. If the risk per trade you are currently comfortable with is 25 dollars per trade (thus the dollar amount you will lose if stopped out) than the number of shares you will take would be (dollar risk divide by "R"). For the example above that would be 100 shares. For every trade the shares will vary even though your dollar risk (if stopped out) is the same. Choose a dollar risk you are comfortable with and I recommend don't change it for awhile. Then calculate your shares each trade depending on your R (monetary distance from your entry to your stop). Your profits will be much more optimized and consistent if you use "R" risk to choose share size. Kyle has created some amazing hot keys which calculate shares automatically when you choose your stop. Or you can calculate it manually, which I did for awhile and it worked out fine. Let me know if that helps answer your question or have more questions.

Thursday 02/20/2020 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 1 live trade this morning with SIX. My watchlist: SIX, TVTY, Z, COMM, LB, and MS. Actually had a big day according to my P/L but it was actually luck. I made a couple of mistakes. I wanted to try another rising devil trade. I have tried it twice before, both times I was stopped out. In the PM, I liked SIX, even though Brian recommends the stock to be still weak into the open. So That was my first mistake, SIX was showing strength into the open. SIX did pop up at the open and bounced off a PM level of $31 just below the VWAP. So I shorted. My stop was just above VWAP, a 30 cent stop. But if it just popped 70 cents, a 30 cent stop is too small which was my next error. My third error is the number of shares I chose. My hot keys is by my stop not share size. I don’t have a 30 cent hot key. I have a 25c and a 35c. I decided to be aggressive and chose 25c. Then I shorted and I was not filled and did not see anything in my order window. I waited a couple of seconds and shorted again (my 4th error). Then both shorts were filled. So honestly I am at 3X too many shares now. I was thinking about covering some and then SIX dropped instantly 60c, where I took a partial. Then the price just sat for several seconds with no volume. While I was waiting I realized I still have way too many shares and I covered everything. Which was lucky since the stock immediately retraced back to my B/E. What did I do good today? Bailed on the trade because of too many shares. What I am grateful from today? Lucky with the fills and the drop. What I need to improve on? Need to try the rising devil with limit orders.

Centerpointe is the best for low float stocks, penny stocks, etc. You have to pay extra and use their special app to find the shares. This takes time and I find it unusable at the open. For the readily available shorts Centerpoint is worse than IB and CMEG. I commonly see Carlos have shorts on CMEG that I do not on Centerpointe without using the app. Almost every rising devil trade I see Brian do, I can't due to no shorts available on Centerpointe's "easy to short list".

Wow a V-reversal on SPCE. That stock scares me. It's right up there with TSLA and BYND. And since V-reversal's strike terror as well, your way braver than me. Nice trade off of support.

Swing trade journal 2/19/2020 Exited ADSK today. Entrance at 203.53. First partial profit at 204.94. Second partial profit at 206.86. Exited today at 211.09.

Wednesday 02/19/2020 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 1 live trade this morning with NVDA. My watchlist: AAPL, ROKU, NVDA, AMD, and TSLA. I actually didn’t like the watchlist today. The stocks with good PM I didn’t have shares to short. NVDA was the best of the list before the open as it was hovering just below the HOPM. Volume arrived quickly and the price popped above the HOPM and I went long. I placed a tight stop around the 50MA-1min. Due to my tight stop I was back to my usual nerves and taking too many partial profits. Then I got lucky and caught the quick jump to $307 where I sold most of my remaining shares. Then all out at a 1min low. But I had so few shares left I was anxious to end the trade. What did I do good today? Determined a good stock to trade by PM. What I am grateful from today? I caught the quick jump in price. What I need to improve on? Too tight of a stop. If the trade went against me could I have held to my stop?

Swing trade journal 2/18/2020 I was more of a day trader than a swing trader today. Long ADSK at 203.53. First partial profit at 204.94. Second partial profit at 206.86. Stopped moved to 206. Followed SPY today. Still holding. Long and exited MDLA today. Entered at 30.67. First partial profit today at 30.96. Then stopped out at B/E. Long and exited PLUG today. This one is from Brian’s watchlist. Entered at 4.58. Took partial profits today at 4.86 and 4.95. Then stopped out by a trailing stop at 4.81. FB did trigger a trade by breaking $215 (per watchlist plan). But I was busy with intraday trading at the time and missed my entry.

Monday 02/18/2020 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 2 live trades this morning with AAPL. My watchlist: AMAT, ROKU, KR, BEN, AAPL and TSLA. AAPL was on my main screen due an interesting PM. There were some PM levels that were being respected. Two minutes before the open AAPL made a big red candle. One min before made a smaller candle holding the level. At the open AAPL got big volume and I shorted (half share size) on a new low. The price dropped then reversed and I actually covered below $316, but the cover did not fill. I flipped my postion and quickly noticed I only have half share size. Now I know that half of my buy order filled the cover. I then noticed the open cover order and cancelled it. At that moment the price droped and would have filled my buy order at a good entry. Then snapped back higher. At 1min 24 sec after the open a big L2 ask of 20k at 317 and added shares. See below at L2. I tried to take a partial at the 317.39 PM level and got a bad fill. Then 2min later I took another partial at that level. Then I noticed it is actually a good time to add. So I added some shares. Then took 4 partials then got a bad auto fill at B/E. What did I do good today? Added to my trade. Recovered OK from my first trade not filling the stop. What I am grateful from today? A green day, which I really needed after a rule breaking day on Thursday. What I need to improve on? Some common stocks are getting too high priced. I need to reprogram my hot keys for a larger buffer on my market limit orders.

Watchlist for the week of 2/17/2020 Small watchlist this week. NGVT had a big upgrade on 1/24/20 which the price ignored. Instead took the ruling of the patent infringement case as the dominate news. NGVT is the plantiff and the ruling was weak and not helpful. They are petitioning the ruling. Q-report 2/4/20 was mixed (good but poor forecast). The price has held for 2 weeks and is creating an ascending triangle. Long if break $68. RSI=32. MACD just crossed to the bullish side. MDLA has been riding in a range for months. Volume has been good the last 5 weeks. There was an outperform initiation on 1/24 with no positive reaction (with a target of $40). MACD just crossed bullish. RSI=54. With a good entry it may be time for a starter position in BIDU. Thinking it may take another stab at trying to fill that gap from last June. Price being squeezed last week, will wait and see if it price breaks-up. RSI=55. Q-Report 2/27, so either do not stay in trade long or wait for report. FB has an ascending wedge as well. MACD would cross with bullish with two positive days. Long if break >215 which is right on a Fibonacci line. RSI=54. Secondary List AAPL Ascending triangle for all time high. Is it extended? WDC Long if pull back to $65 RNR Will likely bounce back to 201. but R/R not too good HSC Fill the gap. I like this one but will have to wait after earnings. GTX Don't like the bullish hammer on Friday BOX Stop 15.40. targ=17.30 R/R not good enough ORCC A month at $16 with lots of vol. I like this one too but will have to wait after earnings.

Swing trade journal 2/13/2020 An eventful morning. Which is never good for trading. I usually check after hours trading on my swing trades, but last night for some reason I did not. So it was quite a shock this morning to see my only real current swing trade down 20% this morning. BE apparently were not honest with their reporting. I sold in PM and took a huge loss throwing away all my swing trade winnings for the month. But what REALLY hurt is my finger was on the sell button, on BE, right at the close yesterday. The price was weak the last have hour and I was going to bail, but waited until the close. The last minute was strong so I stayed in the trade. Plus I was still 1.2% above my B/E as a buffer. And the last three trades that I exited because of weakness at the close all opened up big the next morning. So that was also weighing on me. So I was so close to selling it, and instead it became the biggest loser on the gappers list. I will take a break from swing trading for a few days. Have a nice weekend.

Sorry, I had to google what a DD 214 was. Wow that is a big day!!! Have a good weekend.

Thursday 02/13/2020 I took 3 live trades this morning with AMAT and BABA. An eventful morning. Which is never good for trading. I was just saying to myself yesterday, that I need to be careful. The month is going so well for me in both day and swing trading, my self destructive behavior may kick in. I usually check after hours trading on my swing trades, but last night for some reason I did not. So it was quite a shock this morning to see my only real current swing trade down 20% this morning. BE apparently were not honest with their reporting. I sold in PM and took a huge loss throwing away all my swing trade winnings for the month. But what REALLY hurt is my finger was on the sell button, on BE, right at the close yesterday. The price was weak the last have hour and I was going to bail, but waited until the close. The last minute was strong so I stayed in the trade. Plus I was still 1.2% above my B/E as a buffer. And the last three trades that I exited because of weakness at the close all opened up big the next morning. So that was also weighing on me. So I was so close to selling it, and instead it became the bigest loser on the gappers list. My first thought was to trade SIM this morning. But I should have just shut the platform down and walked away. By having the platform up you have the option to trade live right to the open. By the time of the open I had intellectualized that it wasn’t a big deal. It was bad luck and I minimized the risk. I considered BE on the risky side so I only took 60% share size. And the weakness at the end of the day was not big enough to trigger my 2% trailing stop. And BE was still well up for the day. So I traded live….. I didn’t like anything from the premarket so I was watching all 6 stocks on my watchlist. Most of them got no volume at the open except AMAT. The price was dropping hard on strong volume and broke the LOPM. There was also a bearish L2 signal. Though not that big. There was also the 200MA-5min just below, which I like in the first minute of trading as it tends to pull the price down. So I shorted. PDC was my target with the LOPM as my stop. So far things were OK. Note L2 when I took the trade: The price reversed immediately. Now here lies the problem and why you don’t trade after a big loss. Your ability to take a loss is now even more difficult. I already have FOBW so when the price retraced I instantly changed my stop to the 200MA-1min. As the price approached my new stop I saw it looked like a long. The candle was creating a strong hammer and there was a strong L2 signal. So I flipped the position and went long and took a big loss on my first trade. What the chart and L2 looked like when I went long (note the big ask at $67): Just after I went long the price instantly went against me again. At this point my nerves were shot. The price did bounce from my stop (LOPM) and rose and I added to my postion when it broke VWAP because I saw SPY really climbing. I took two quick partials and set my auto stop at B/E, where the price shot right though giving most of my profits back. I am sad to report I didn’t hold to my 2 trade limit (if one trade is a stop out) and took a revenge trade on BABA. It had no detup and I took 3 times the correct share size and was also immediately stopped out. I then turned off my platform and walked away. Lost -5.5R today, the exact amount I was up for the month. So even day and swing trading combined my P/L is back to zero for the month. Will definitely be on SIM tomorrow or possibly not even turn on my platform. No more swing trades this week.

Swing trade journal 2/12/2020 Long ADSK at 203.53. First partial profit at 204.94. Second partial profit at 206.86. Stopped moved to 204. Followed SPY today. Still holding. Stopped out on PGTI today at 16.41. Entered at 16.59. Long BE again today at 10.34. First partial profit today at 10.54. Price moved higher after my partial then sold off hard the last half hour. I was about to exit the trade but there was a lot of buying interest right before closing that kept me in the trade. Stop moved to B/E. I am a little concerned on this position since I only have a 1% buffer above my stop to hold over night. My next tech level is at 10.90.

Great VWAP bounce trades (false break outs). All of them. I really like CYBR where you were stopped out, but saw the setup again and had a winning trade.

Monday 02/12/2020 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 1 live trade this morning with TEVA. My watchlist: TEVA, BBBY, CVS, ROKU, MU and SHOP. TEVA was on my main screen due to a PM level that was being respected. The plan was to go long on the break of 13.20 if volume arrived. But before that happen there was an L2 signal, not huge but enough, so I went long with half shares. 13.50 target and 13.05 stop. I was watching the bid/ask spread and tried to take a partial at 13.30 four times. The first 3 times got poor fills. At that point I was essentially out of shares but holding. Then at 9:33 volume arrived and the price made a hammer by bouncing off of the 20MA-1min and I added when the price broke the 9MA. This was the start of the real trade. Target was still the 13.50 with the 20MA as the stop. Yes, took way too many partials but better than the first part of the trade. What did I do good today? Added to my trade. An unusual action for me to conjure the courage to do. What I am grateful from today? One and done. What I need to improve on? Must use the partialling hot keys. I may have to go back to SIM to practice.

Swing trade journal 2/11/2020 Long ADSK at 203.53. First partial profit at 204.94. Second partial profit at 206.86. Stopped moved to 204. Did very little today. Still holding. Exited V at 204.43. Entered at 204.00. The price actually reached my first target today at the open, but I was busy intraday trading and didn’t notice until it dropped. V was so weak going into the close I exited before it reached my stop. Exited BILI today. Entered at 25.05. First partial profit yesterday at 25.43. Took multiple partial profits today from 26.10 to 27.18. Where I finally ran out of shares. BILI made my week! Exited MYGN today. Entered yesterday at 19.83. This one is from Brian’s watchlist. First partial profit today at 20.15, where I sold half my shares. Then set my stop just below B/E, where it was filled soon after. Long PGTI today at 16.59. Per plan, to go long this week if it broke and held 16.40. First target 16.80. Final target 17.15. Stop at 16.40.

Monday 02/11/2020 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 2 live trades this morning with TMUS and AAPL. My watchlist: TMUS, DISH, S, ROKU, UAA and AAPL. I liked the PM of TMUS, S and AAPL all long bias with the break of a PM level. TMUS setup first with a break of 93.75 price that was respected in PM. I actually didn’t have a good target, but my stop was 93.50. I got 3 quick partials before it retraced. I set stop order at B/E and my fill was terrible at 70 cents below B/E. If I got my fill at B/E I would probably have called it a day. But I wasn’t sure how little I made for the trade so I started looking for another one. After I was finished trading for the day I checked my P/L (which I restarted this month) and I was up +1R after the first trade. If I knew that I would have stopped trading. My next trade was AAPL but I took it a bit unprepared. AAPL was on a side chart and I saw an opportunity for a 1min ORB. I brought it to my montage and entered the trade immediately. I did not check SPY, L2 or the actual volume number. The volume was only 600k which is just OK for AAPL and not enough to take an ORB. Plus SPY was dropping. Yes, the price action was fine, but I didn’t give myself the couple of seconds to fully check the setup. So of course the instant I entered the trade it started to drop. I did sell all at my stop of 323.40 but my fill was terrible doubling my losses on the trade to -2R. Ouch. What did I do good today? I planned the trade before the open and executed it on TMUS. What I am grateful from today? Only being down -1R for trading poorly today. What I need to improve on? Check the setup fully. If you miss the trade while you are checking, that’s fine.