DAY – 16 & 17 (8.18.2020 & 8.19.2020)
Trades: 3 (Green, 8X and 8X above daily goal)
Symbols: 2; 5 (DT: WMT, TGT; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA, WDC)
Psychology: Slept well both days, starting to get up a little later – meditation and shorter pre-market preparations.
Goal for the day: Day Trades – Find catalyst stock. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan.
Daily Market Wrap-up:
SPY broke YTD high on weak move and low volume, RVOL today was 70% and yesterday was 50%. SPY broke all time high in a range and then sold off on government news. Some expected it to break YTD high on catalyst of Stimulus Package talks finally coming to positive fruition.
8.19.2020
8.18.2020
8.19.2020
WL:
8.18.2020
8.19.2020
DAY TRADES:
WMT (8.18.2020)
Overall grade = B, Winner, 8R
Catalyst: Strong earnings – US sales rose 9.3%, Comp sales rose 13.3%, beat on revenue by $7B from last year.
Strategy: Climactic Reversal
T1: Long bias but took a short first on ORB weakness and ‘pop’. short entry was extended but L2 was showing strength to downside. Reversal was at pre-market LOD, P1 at 20EMA, P2 at 50SMA, added to position on low volume PB, added more on previous-previous premarket LOD and holding 9/20 EMA and 50 SMA, partialed up to $135.50.
Trade Management: Overall, good. No premature partials, good recognition of Orb to downside before taking the reversal and catalyst strength I was looking for. It was a one and done day 8X daily goal.
NI – Trust your entry on confirmation of level or MA or what you are trading off of, this trade was ~12R because SL would have been so small.
TGT (8.19.2020)
Overall grade = B, Winner, 7R; A, Winner, 3.8R
Catalyst: Strong earnings – Q2 comparable sales up 24%, gained $5B in market cap.
Strategy: VWAP Break Out
T1: Long bias but took an opening short. Had some HK errors but entry and add were well calculated, two premature partials on small body candles showing weakness near $153.50. All partials above $154 were bonus in my mind. T2: Took a second trade later on PB and pop, very proud of my patience since I got stopped out and I missed the wedge BO due to attending to other business.
Trade Management: Overall, good. Still had a couple premature partials, could have held last bit of shares for bigger run to $154.85, my exit was $154.25. Good job of scanning similar candles and associated volume for weak PBs.
NI – Trust your entry on confirmation of level or MA or what you are trading off of, this trade was ~12R because SL would have been so small.
SWING TRADES:
WDC
No change. Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down. Has fallen below $35, I will average down at below $34.
IBM:
No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).
WKHS
Recent two day ‘pop’ on unusual options action to the high side. Government fiscal year ends end of September, should hear if they win some or all the USPS contract ($6B). Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level.
SAVE
No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).
APA
No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.
Final Review:
Goal for Day: 6/8 – FAIL, because I failed #8.
1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS
2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS
3. Work on better entries – FAIL
4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – PASS
5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS
6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS
7. 3SYO – PASS
8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL
#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management
Things I did well: Not move SL to BE so soon on watching L2 and PA and Mas.
Things I did poorly: Need to trust your entry on confirmation of level or MA or what you are trading off of.
Major observations to work on:
Bottom Reversal
o I want my entry below the daily level
o When I thin kits time to enter, it’s still too early – wait.
VPA
o When anomaly is identified:
o Where in the trend are you?
§ Bottom or Top – is a major reversal coming?
§ Middle of trend – is this just a minor PB?