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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/27/2020 in Posts
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2 pointsMonday - July 27, 2020 Futures Watch /ES opening at 3210.75 and tested 3192 lows before reversing back to V POC 3215 area. We have a Volume Pocket above to get us back to 3260 VA High if we get a rally this week. 10D 30M Chart /NQ opened 10490 and tested 10412 before reversing back to V POC 10590 area. We have a Volume Pocket above to get us back to 10825 VA High if we get a rally this week. 10D 30M Chart /RTY opened at 1466.4 and tested 1456.2 before reversing back to V POC 1465 area. Structure below VA Low 1455 is poor for a drop back to 1440 range support on higher timeframes. 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver Futures up over 6% after rallying strong over recent weeks. Nearing 25.12 Monthly Pivot but has plenty of room to continue running higher. Gold Futures up 1.6%, breaking ATH 1932 and future expiry contracts showing continued strength in the future months. VIX Index up 2% with Volatility Futures down 1.7%, watching VIX lows around 24 to hold or break down if a rally can't get going. Natural Gas down 1.1%, slight pullback from retesting Yearly lows support at 1.62. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Metals up 1.1% with strong gold and silver markets. Technology and BioTechnology up .7%, not overtly strong but strong Semiconductors ($SMH 1.8%) and general rebound from last week in QQQ. Weak Sectors: Nothing weak, Financials down slightly on the premarket. Things to Watch: Semiconductors, seems as if lots of rebalancing is occurring leading to nice volatility. We have $INTC last week's earnings surprise and drop, $AMD strong rally, and $TSM ATH gapping higher on news with Intel Production. $AAPL Active and strong gap from Friday bounce. Watching Gold Miner Leveraged ETFs ($NUGT / $JNUG) and Silver $SLV.
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1 pointHey BBT community, I wanted to share this solution for slow connections on the forum here as it's been an absolute life saver for my day trading using DAS Trader Pro. This solution requires some technical knowledge. This method works well for those of us who live outside of North America, far from the data centres in New Jersey. I trade from Sydney, Australia - there's no major city physically further from New Jersey than Sydney. (As a side note, this may also work if you have a slow computer.) Problem I get consistently get terrible network latency (ping) during the first 30 mins of the market open - to the extent DAS is not usable for about 30 mins. I would get delayed price updates 10sec (sometimes 30sec) later. The image below shows the 85sec delay on one of the bad days. The issue becomes exponentially worse the more charts and montages I have open; this is likely due to L2 data. I only trade the open, so it's quite frustrating to lose the first 30 mins due to internet issues. My Tested Solution My solution was to run DAS Trader from a windows desktop virtual machine in the cloud at a location near the NYC data centres. I would then remote desktop access into that machine. The following steps are for Google Cloud Platform (you can also use Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure, but I wouldn't stray from those three). Step 1) Sign up for an account with Google Cloud. Set up a virtual machine on Google Cloud. This is a youtube video showing how to set one up. Choose a beefy instance if possible; I'm using 8 CPU and 16G of RAM. Choose Windows Server Datacentre (with desktop experience) as the machine image. These machines are charged on a time-usage basis, so turn it off when you're not trading! Step 2) Set up your Windows Remote Desktop client such that the Colour setting is set to 15-bit and the Experience setting is set to 'Modem'. This will significantly reduce the bandwidth usage. Step 3) Install DAS on the virtual machine and test. The expected result is that you should experience lower latency during periods of high data flow. I don't have the bandwidth numbers but assume they are correlated for our purposes. Now, during the market open: i) the ping from my virtual machine to the exchange is 20ms ii) the ping from my home to the virtual machine is about 200ms iii) in total is much lower at about 220ms The primary trade-off is that the desktop experience is not as visually snappy. But I'll take that in a heartbeat over what I had before. Why the Solution Works This is an explanation of what's happening behind the scenes. Before: 1) The quote data was sent from New Jersey Data Centre to my laptop in Sydney. 2) My laptop would run DAS and render the charts and L2 stock data. After: 1) The quote data is now sent from New Jersey Data Centre to my virtual machine in North Virginia. 2) My virtual machine running DAS will render the charts and L2 data. 3) My remote desktop client would then connect to the virtual machine and fetch the 'video-feed'. However it's quite efficient, it will only fetch necessary on-screen changes. This is similar to watching a youtube video - but we're watching a computer desktop feed. Not every pixel on-screen is refreshed, only a fraction of the pixels are refreshed few times a second. Only the refreshed pixels are sent over the internet and repainted on my monitor at home. This efficiency saves a lot of bandwidth. As a result: With the above solution, we have minimised the amount of data that needs to physically travel hence improving our experience when using DAS. The remote desktop client screen-feed transfers much less data than raw stock data. It's difficult to verify this but I empirically suspect the bottleneck is due to the constraints relating to the underwater fibre optic cables between LA and Sydney. The reason I believe this is the case is because I had tested running a VM in the AWS Sydney region and the same issue occurred; hence my woes were unlikely to be issues with my home internet connection. A map of the submarine data cable network (as at 2015): Hope this is useful.
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1 pointThanks! It depends on the stock price and the movement. But generally I use a $1 stop. Sometimes I will decrease that t $0.50 later in the day. Again, depends on price and movement. There is no situation where I would use a $0.50 stop on $NFLX. And $AAPL in the morning I would definitely use $1, but maybe $0.50 later in the day. And remember, right now I trade almost exclusively stocks between $100-$500.
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1 point@tntp45 That's it for today. I'm taking it slow, as I need to get myself out of a sizable hole I dug late last week.
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1 pointDAY – 10 (7.24.2020) Trades: 6 (Green 3X Goals) Symbols: 2; 3 (DT: AMD, SPCE; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA) Psychology: Slept well – got up later to mitigate this, my normal 6:30 am wake-up felt ‘off’ so I slept 1 more hour – good decision. I did not allow breaking my routine to affect me (traded symbols I know). Confidence up, mental plan – good (intentionally same as 7.22.20 and 7.23.2020). Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SPCE, AMD and BA without bias. Trade symbols on ‘favorites’ WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes). Daily Market Wrap-up & Week in Review: Earnings season continues next week (7.28.20: AMD; 7.29.20: BA, APA, FB; 7.30.20 AMZN, GOOG, AAPL) – to name a few. SPY sold off today and notably yesterday the SPY fell below a ‘bullish’ level of $322, this same level was a breakout on 7.20.2020 – ?False Breakout? All sectors were red today and appear to be split down the middle on a weekly look. Surprisingly, the biggest gainer for the week was Energy, +1.64% - are production cuts helping or is demand increasing? WL: SWING TRADES: IBM: No change, still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral). BA Sold overnight position on profit, took another position at LOD for pre-earnings next week. Catalyst: American Airlines (AAL) to take delivery 737 Max fleet, US Exim bank approves its first big aircraft-related deals in five years, including a guarantee on a $459M facility for receivables owed to engine maker General Electric by Boeing under a new Cares Act authorization. The bank also is supporting a deal for $498M in Boeing jets being acquired by Turkish Airlines. DAY TRADES: SPCE Overall grade = D, break-even, 1.7R, 2.3R (Potential: 3R) Catalyst: Space travel sector is hot, C-suite improvement, commercialization upcoming. Strategy: 5-min ORB/ABCD, Climactic Reversal T1: Long bias, entry was at the hold of daily level ($24), stopped out. Re-entered several times and got chopped around, very bad trade, small loser. T2: Entry was late after TFL hold and entered on intraday level hold ($23.51), P1 of 20% at daily level, P2 and P3 of 50% at (Panic partials at mini-consolidation), P4 of 50% at daily level ($24.6), P5 – bailed on EMA test with 100 SMA above, this average caused me to panic and bail early. Trade Management: Overall, okay. Because I got chopped around with no true set-up in the opening my reversal was with limited position on lack of confidence. Had no business trading this symbol in the first 15 minutes as it was a ‘chop-fest’. My second trade was good - good entry, good partials, a couple of premature ('panic partials' on consolidation), and max target. NI – Regardless of confidence with a symbol, wait to enter a trade on a set-up and move you have confidence in. Playing a ‘long bias’ is not good, let the market tell you what is going to occur. AMD Overall grade = A+, winner, 2R, 1.3R, 3.9R, 3.9R, 1R Catalyst: Strength on earnings report, on my Favorites WL. Strategy: Climactic Reversal, Trend Continuation, 5-min ABCD, Break HOD, Short Scalp T1: Short bias, entry at upper hold of 200 SMA, P1 of 66% at 20 EMA on 5-min chart (shorting a strong stock), P2 of 50% at 9 EMA on 15-min chart, added 50 shares on PB and test of 100 SMA on 1-min/50 SMA on 2-min (double confirmation to add), P3 of 50% at 15-min 9 EMA (premature partial – not panic partial because shorting a strong stock), stopped out and reversed position. T2: Long bias, entry on new 1-min VPOC line (confirmation of good entry), P1 of 25% at 100 SMA on 1-min chart, P2 of 66% at VPOC on 15-min chart, stopped out at BE. T3: Long bias, entry at 13:15 candle (position C of 5-min ABCD), P1 of 30% at top of 5-min VPOC (premature partial), P2 of 29% at 15-min VPOC, P3 of 100% at daily level/5-min VPOC R-lvl (Note: I saw the ASK orders on L2 for $69.53, I missed out on 30C move, place your orders in front of those big ASKS especially on a stock that is so strong to the upside). T4: Long bias, entry ($69.44) on L2 strength and big asks for HOD break, P1 of 50% at 1-min VPOC, P2 of 100% at HOD in front of big ask (I was 2C off of HOD on that push – nicely done!). T5: Short bias, retracement short, entry $69.43, P1 of 50% at daily level $69.33, P2 of 100% at intraday level $69.16. Trade Management: No issues, I was in the zone on this trade a la Mark Douglas. I played the trend both directions, once I gave back profits I quit trading the symbol, did not break #SYO. NI – Humble brag, nothing. This trade was as good as it gets. I took a couple of premature partials on shorts but in my defense this stock was very strong to upside. See note in red for other NI. Final Review: Goal for Day: 6/9 - FAIL 1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – FAIL 2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS 3. Work on better entries - PASS 4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS 5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS 6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS 7. 3SYO – PASS 8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL 9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – FAIL #5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management Things I did well: Getting better executing better entries and stopping out when entry is not great (bottom reversals), Good recognition of trend trading on AMD, took it short long and short using trend lines beautifully. Things I did poorly: Trading the chop-fest open on SPCE lowered my confidence, I caught the reversal but was shy to take more position because of opening trade. Need better recognition of when to trade the open and when not to (ended -$15 on that trade, I consider that BE).
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1 pointAh, my bad. So, again this is just my opinion, there are way more experienced people around here. I've been at this everyday for about 9 months now. I think about 6 months in I was starting to reliably break even. Now, after nearly 9 months in, under the condition i trade well 3 to 4 days a week, I'm sitting at a reliable 5R-10R per week. That's with a daily goal in the range of 2.8R-3.3R and a max loss in the range of -2.8R - -3.3R. Now, it's clear to me that on days I grab 3R-4R off a morning play, I need to give myself the go ahead to push for 5R-10R days. Max loss days really hurt, and you'll have them. For example if I didn't hit max loss yesterday, and instead had a conservative 2.5R day, i'd be around 11R-12R this week, which would be about 3.3% of my account, which is actually insane if you extrapolate that out for even just 6 months. Instead, i'm around 5.5R. That's a big difference, and all it took was one day getting just a little too loose with an opening play, getting stopped out, then being slightly tilted and chasing a couple not so great trades. I feel like the more I trade the more I see that hitting the A+ setups and managing your winning trades is the easy part, keeping your losses small and infrequent is the hard part, it's the latter that drops the 90% out of the break even / profit bracket. If you can very consistently get in the range of 10R-30R weeks, then you can day trade for a living, period. A 5R daily goal sounds great, a 25R weeks sound great, and 100R months SOUND GREAT. But imo, you'd have to be a badass trader with a lot of experience to get those numbers. If you're pulling 100R months, i'd guess you're somewhere in the top .2% of traders. Hell, I think having very consistent 40R-50R months probably puts you in the top 3%. I have no data to support this, this is just what I feel to be the truth, or at least close to it. I think a 3R daily goal in the beginning is a great place to start. Also, any trade that you take should have the potential to hit at LEAST 2R. If you nail an awesome ORB at the opening for 3R, nice! you made it! If you're feeling good, keep going, but don't let yourself dip below 1R. if you get stopped out once at -1R, 2 good 2R plays or a great 4R trade will get you to daily goal. if you're down -2R and against the ropes, then 1 good 2R trade will take you back to break even. gl! : ) -Chris *edit* I should also add that I only trade the first 30-90 minutes the market is open, if you're trading all day then maybe a 5R-10R daily goal is more realistic? But I'm not sure..
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1 pointHad my hulk day today. I am so embarrassed that I never though it could happen to me. I broke every rule. I went into trades with no stop loos and with big shares in hope of making up my loss. Here are some of the reasons that I think it happened to me: - My R is $10 and since I don't have the confidence to get in trades quick I tend to have a wide stop. So the most I get out of a trade is 2R - My daily max profit has been 2.5R compared to my SIM trades which were average of 5R. - I would get FOMO seeing everyone in chatroom hitting their daily goal in the first 10 minutes and I would be down R. (I know it's stupid but I am confessing here!) I will probably go back to SIM for a couple of days or not trade at all and just watch the stocks. I am a little discouraged and not sure what to you. Have a question from the experienced trades out there: How long did it take for your to become consistently profitable? @Brendon@peterB I know it's different for people but the reason that I am asking is I wan to give myself a timeline and be OK with the losses during this time. Also any ideas on how to analyze by trades to find my mistakes would be greatly appreciated. I journal everyday (except today because there was no point!)