Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

2 hours ago, Glenn Budde said:

I noticed that some of the fast stocks will blast past my stop orders on my Kyles Keys but my BE key is a market order and seems to work every time..... If you want the code here it is....

CXL ALLSYMB;Route=Stop;Price=AvgCost;StopType=MARKET;STOPPRICE=AvgCost;StopPrice=Round2;Share=Pos;TIF=DAY;Send=Reverse;

Not sure what broker your with but with CMEG I had to take the + out of DAY    (it used to be DAY+)

Thanks Glenn. Actually I don't use Kyles Keys because I trade so close to the open, it is not fast enough for me. 

My B/E exit script looks almost identical to yours except instead of MARKET, I pay extra and use the fastest market route Centerpoint has to offer (FANM). This works for all stocks except BABA with tight exits. But even the fastest route is no match for BABA. Though it doesn't happen often I have actually had all my profits of the trade disappear on the slide of B/E stop market order. Though uncommon it is always on your mind. It is quite a shock to the system. I am thinking, "OK, good trade, OK profit, I will let the stop order exit the trade and I am done for the day......what! I am back to flat! OK, looking for another trade...."

[Glenn Budde 356]

14 hours ago, Rob C said:

I am thinking, "OK, good trade, OK profit, I will let the stop order exit the trade and I am done for the day......what! I am back to flat! OK, looking for another trade...."

I hate that.... While Im trading I usually know about where I am at but that rare occasion that you go look and it is no where near what you thought......

I do not have knowledge with BABA, I think I only traded it once but Ill keep this in mind when I do again.....

Have a good weekend

[Rob C 826]

1 hour ago, Glenn Budde said:

I hate that.... While Im trading I usually know about where I am at but that rare occasion that you go look and it is no where near what you thought......

I do not have knowledge with BABA, I think I only traded it once but Ill keep this in mind when I do again.....

Have a good weekend

BABA has quite a personality and the spread can explode without warning. But with the trade wars on, it has some really nice moves.

Have a good weekend as well.

[Rob C 826]

Monday 11/25/2019

I had a well-being score of 7.5/10 this morning. A very good learning day. Some IT issues with Centerpoint.

I took 2 live trades this morning with BABA.

My watchlist: TSLA, BABA, ROKU, NVDA, AMTD and TEVA.

I had 3 chances to make a winning trade with BABA at the open and mismanaged each time. BABA gapped up with OK volume in PM, and has a great daily chart. But I also liked NVDA. Even though BABA was on my main screen I was eyeing NVDA at the open. I followed my usual procedure. I waited after the opening bell to see how large would be the big print on BABA. I had to be patient this morning. 45 seconds after the open a 282k print hit, thus making it probable BABA will move at the open. There were also 3 more prints that were recorded within the same second which I usually don’t put much weight on if they arrive at the same time as the very big print. Also one was green, one was red and one was white. Thus inconclusive T/S signal. At the same moment there were conflicting L2 signals. There were both large asks and bids thus cancelling each other out and also being an inclusive signal. I am not use to two inconclusive signals so I didn’t take the trade. It is too bad I had enough signals (long bias, good hammer, strong volume, 200MA showed strong support and T/S went all green). But the inconclusiveness of the large prints and L2 made me balk on the trade. Which is unusual for me. Since it was <1min I would have gone half shares with $188 as my stop. The price did hit the $188 a minute later, but with half shares I am less jumpy and would like to have think I would have survived without stopping out and would have caught the run up this morning.

What the BABA looked like when I did not take the trade:

My second chance, that I mismanaged arrived soon after. The price started to drop and that is when I noticed the 5min chart looks bearish with a double/triple top and 4 red candles, in a row, stepping down. So I planned to take a 1min ORBD. I remember checking L2, which was neutral, before taking the trade. So I shorted but made three mistakes. First, I did not check T/S which had a large 12k print on the ask 6 seconds before I took the trade. Thus it would have stopped me from taking the trade. Second, I took the trade with half shares, though I am suppose to take full shares after >1min. I did not think of it since I was still in <1min mode. If I would have taken full shares I would have reached my 1R where I would have taken a partial and brought my stop down to B/E and thus making a small profit. Third, once I realized I took the wrong shares I re-evaluated and saw the price break the 188.07 level and I added shares. Adding shares was not the mistake if based on breaking the level. My mistake is before I added I noticed the 12K bullish print. Not only should this have prevented me from adding shares it should have told me to take some profit and move my stop. I didn’t and the price reversed the instant I added. I tried to S/O where I entered the trade but BABA slid right through that.

What it looked like when I took the trade. There was a 187.55 daily level that I was using for my target.

After stopping out, BABA made one heck of a strong hammer on the 5min chart. A 5k print hit the ask and there was a L2 signal on the ask. Plus my bias in PM was long. So I flipped my position. My stop was the 188.07 daily level. My mistake this trade was I stopped out at 188.09, 2 cents above my planned stop. Not sure why I did that, but I have been stopping out early lately. At 188.06 the stock turned around and went for its strong run up without me. It is amazing how many times in my journal I wrote those words, “…stopped out, then a few pennies later the stock turned around and went for its run without me….”

Then I tried to take a SIM trade on NVDA but Centerpoint had an IT issue on the demo accounts today, so it didn’t happen.

 

What did I do good today? Though my trading was really sloppy today, I didn’t break any rules.

What I am grateful from today? I am grateful that I walked away from my platform. Since I had a -2R day and my demo account stopped working which made it was very enticing to take some more live trades, but I didn’t.

What do I need to improve on:  There are a lot of things to watch, but the clock should be very high priority. Still having trouble using T/S and L2 after I am in the trade. I need to take early profits when I see a reverse signal. Will start taking slightly less shares on each trade. I need to give a little bit of room on my stops. Just a couple more cents could make a big difference.

 

[IamKarthi 342]

It's very intersting how you are analyzing the L2 print on $BABA at the open.  Does it give you an indication on the direction of the stock at the open? 

[Rob C 826]

20 minutes ago, IamKarthi said:

It's very intersting how you are analyzing the L2 print on $BABA at the open.  Does it give you an indication on the direction of the stock at the open? 

You mean time and sales prints? Only 3 times it gave me direction. Once it was today, which I ignored to my regret. There were two other times it helped on direction.  Though historically, when I wasn't using it yet, the prints correlated with direction,

For the most part it helps in two ways. First it is a starting gun. Until the really big print hits, the price action is not trustworthy. After the big print the movement tends to be directional not random.  Secondly is the size of the big print is a good predictor if there will be a big move >$1.5 at the open. If it is >150k it seems likely that it will have a move. If the big print is Green or Red or White doesn't seem to have correlation to the direction. But the next sizeable print >5k, after the really big print, tends to give some hint of direction. At least for the past few weeks.

In general it has been very helpful, but I have been mismanaging the trades so I am only slightly positive from these trades. Managing trades seems to be my weak area and I think BABA is one of the worse to manage. At least when I finally start managing BABA well I will probably be able to manage almost anything. 

Not sure why, but I always wanted to be able to read the tape. I have watched a few videos and really haven't learned much. Finally I took Brian's advice when he was asked about reading the tape, "you just have to keep watching it to learn how to read it." So I started recording it and after watching the recordings for two weeks I started to see patterns emerge. Still a lot to learn about it, but making progress. Thanks for the note.

[IamKarthi 342]

May be you are onto something to crack the mystery of trading at the open consistently.

Yeah, what I meant was if the prints you see come from L2, if not, it could be entries from the previous day after market transactions. Nevertheless, as you mentioned you are looking at the next print after the big print, which indicates the direction. May be someone else is watching these big prints too. 

It's also my regret that I din't take up L2/T&S seriously while starting out. Well, trading is a journey and atleast we have been using L2 past few months. I had subscribed for this course from Udemy on L2, cost me 10bucks. The guy repeats a lot of stuff, but still very good video on L2 and Prints.

https://www.udemy.com/course/tape-reading-101-learn-how-to-read-the-tape-for-day-trading/

We can discuss about L2/prints with interested people and share the knowledge mutually. 

[Rob C 826]

Yes, the really big print I wait for is never seen on L2, so I assume it is a transaction from the previous day or from the infamous dark pools that is finally hitting the books. Again no direction from these prints but if really large it is a good indicator the price will move. Just not sure which direction. I have to wait for other prints or signals to determine. that.

Thanks for the link. I have watched quite a few videos on reading the tape and haven't found any useful, even SMBs. I will have a look at Udemys.

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 11/27/2019

I had a well-being score of 7.5/10 this morning. Trading in SIM due to breaking rules this month.

I took 2 SIM trades this morning with BABA and DE.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, DE, DELL and DIS.

BABA gapped up with good PM volume. Also, the price had a slow upward movement even after the initial gap. So I was long bias before the open. I only had to wait 6 seconds after the open and I got the biggest prints I have seen with > 1M volume. So the stock was going to move. I waited for the next print which can give me a sense of direction. Three seconds later a 2.5k print hit the ask. Not big enough to enter the trade but gives me an even stronger long bias. The price bounce off the $197 level and started making a bullish hammer. Then the final signal a large L2 ask 20 cents above the L1. So I went long, got the usual bad fill. My target was the 198.41 daily level and stop was the $197.

The big print (the last 6 prints were all reported simultaneously):

The big ask on L2:

 

What the 1min chart looked like when I entered the trade:

I took my first partial when the price seemed to stall. The price retraced a little and I added more on a standard 1min ORB. I took 3 more partials on the daily level, $198 and the target 198.41. The price then dropped quickly. It seems I always get stopped out by a penny before the big run so I set a stop order 2 cents below B/E. It didn’t matter I was stopped out by a penny again and missed the rest of the run. But, still a profitable trade, I shouldn’t complain.

After the BABA trade I was watching DE. If it dropped down and bounce from VWAP I was going to go long. As I was watching and waiting I realized, “shoot I am in the middle of a live swing trade with BABA I entered a few weeks ago and I reached my target.” I quickly opened up my Etrade platform and sold my shares. By the time I got back I missed my entry on DE. I did chase this one a bit, because now the R/R was not that good. But I went long with 9MA and bottom of the candle as my stop and the 170.84 as my target. The price did reach my target then I exited the remaining shares at B/E.

 

What did I do good today? I didn’t break any rules.

What I am grateful from today? I am grateful that BABA gave several long signals so it was easy to enter the trade.

What do I need to improve on:  Watch the chasing.

 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 11/29/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning. Trading in SIM due to breaking rules this month.

I took 2 SIM trades this morning with BABA.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, CVLS and DIS.

BABA was a slow grind down in PM with huge volume. So I was short bias’d. I wasn’t sure if we would get the really big print in the first minute due to the large PM volume. The market opened and I waited. No really big print arrived, but without it there was a large opening volume and the 1min candle created a nice hammer. Then we had a good L2 signal and I went long.

1min chart when I took the trade:

$201 was my target with 199.30 (bottom of two previous candles) as my stop. The stock popped a little and I took one large partial. Then the price reversed and I exited at B/E. I flipped my position with and shorted. I took one large partial at the low of the day and then exited at B/E. I did miss the big move but I caught two 50 cent moves which is fine. The really big print did arrive 10 seconds after my first trade (~170k), but all the big prints stopped afterwards. So not much of a T/S signal today.

 

What did I do good today? I didn’t break any rules.

What I am grateful from today? I am grateful that BABA gave a strong L2 signal. Without it, it would have been difficult to go against my bias.

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 12/02/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning. A new month. I will be solid this month with no rule breaking.

I took 1 live trade this morning with BABA.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, CVLS, MU and APA.

BABA I was short bias’d this morning. But BABA had some major levels both above and below it, so I was worried it may bounce around. I didn’t have to wait long for the opening big print. 17 seconds after the open a 355k print hit T/S which hints that there may be a reasonable move at the open. I waited for the next prints. My rule is at least a 3 second separation after the big print to use any other prints as a signal.

Five seconds later a 5k sell at the bids 16 cents under the big print. For BABA I need to see at least 15 cents separation from the second print compared to the first large print. So it was good enough to be a short signal but not enough to enter the trade.

At the same time a small bearish L2 signal appeared. But not strong enough of a signal to enter the trade.

Then the price broke both the 198.41 daily level and the 198.30 tech level. So I went short with half shares since it was <1min from open.

The 1min chart when I took the trade:

 

The price bounced around a little, but I was still short bias’d so I took the other half of the shares as a 1min ORBD. My target was $197 and stop of $198.50. I did set a limit order to cover some at 1R, but I turned it off since it looked like it will easily reach it. I didn’t partial very well. Too often and though I tried to look at the spread I was not very discipline to take partials based on the ask and of course got poor fills. I finally held onto some shares if it reached my second target (195.59 daily level), which it did. Then I exited the trade with a bullish L2 signal.

 

 

What did I do good today? I did not break any rules.

What I am grateful from today? I am grateful that BABA gave multiple signals to enter the trade.

What I should improve on: It seems I always need a limit order to mentally aim for and help prevent taking partial profit too often.

 

Edited December 2, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 12/03/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning.

I took 1 live trade this morning with BABA.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, NVDA, MU and UBER.

BABA gapped down like the rest of the market with strong volume .It gapped a little too far down so I didn’t have a bias. The opening had some good volume even without the big print so unsure what significance the big print would have. It took awhile, but 52 seconds after the opening a 396k print hit. I couldn’t wait a few seconds for the next large prints because BABA was already setting up for a short. It made a nice reverse hammer on good volume (even without the big print). The spread was actually good for BABA (3 cents) and there was a L2 signal. Though not a really big bid there were moderately sized bids, two bids 10 cents below the price and two bids 20 cents below the price. I liked that there multiple sizeable bids. I hate entering a trade on one large bid which disappears just after you enter the trade.

Since it was <1min my rule says I can’t take full share size so I went half size. My target was the 189.68 daily level with a stop at the top of the hammer. Because of the tight spread I actually got an OK fill.

The 1min chart and L2 when I took the trade:

Because of my half shares I set my limit order at 2R (thus equal monetarily at 1R with full shares). It was filled quickly. I was going to take another partial at my 189.68 target but the price didn’t quite get there. Price retraced and I was out at B/E.

I really liked how ROKU was setting up, but I am not ready to take a live trade with ROKU so I switched to SIM. The price broke through the 139.21 daily level and I went long with half shares. I learned you have to add shares to ROKU. The price dropped and bounced and I saw a L2 signal and added the rest of my shares. I took a quick partial since it may bounce for the 200MA-5min, which it did. Then I was out at B/E.

Then I took a second trade from an ABCD formation when it looked like it will hold the 140.86 level. The price popped and I got 3 partials, then exit on a new 1min low.

 

What did I do good today? I did not break any rules. I watched BABA spread closely.

What I am grateful from today? I am grateful that BABA gave a multiple bids for an L2 signal.

What I should improve on: I need to start taking ROKU live with small share size.

 

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 12/04/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning with BABA and ARWR.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, NVDA, ARWR and WDAY.

BABA had strong PM volume and gapped up but was heading down into the open so I had no bias. The big print arrived quickly at 9 seconds from the open and reasonably sized 249K. A few seconds later a strong L2 signal (long) appeared. But that was the only signal. I had no bias, no signal in prints, there was a smaller bearish L2 signal at the same time and the 1min candle was red. So I let that signal go. It ended up being true and I would have made it to my first partial profit. But I would do the same thing again.

A few seconds later a bullish hammer formed and we had a bullish large print. The price also broke the 195.59 daily level and above the last two 1min candles. So I went long with half shares. My target was the PM level of 196.23 and my stop the 195.59 daily level.

The 1min chart when I got filled:

 

 

The price didn’t move much for a minute then dropped and bounce hard off my stop. So I added more to full share size.

The 1min chart when I added:

Shortly after adding the price dropped and I was stopped out.

I liked AWRW but the spread was so large. Then a really bearish 2min reverse hammer was created and there was a really strong level around 61.70. If it could break it, it may run. When a saw a mild bearish signal in L2 I shorted knowing the fill would be bad. My target was the 60.45 level with a stop 63.

The 1min chart when I took the trade (note L2):

The price came close to my stop out, but finally dropped. I had a limit order a couple a pennies above the 61.68 PM level. The price reached it but it did not fill, so I then quickly took a manual partial cover.

I set an auto stop at B/E and instant later I was stopped out at B/E.

I later took 3 SIM trades. Two were quickly stopped out and one I was able to get a partial profit before S/O. Essentially, it was a tough trading day for me.

 

What did I do good today? I did not break any rules. I kept losses small.

What I am grateful from today? Trading a stock live I have never traded before.

What I should improve on: I forgot to check SPY before I added more shares to BABA. It would have prevented me from adding since they were diverging.

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 12/05/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning with BABA and SAGE.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, SAGE, WORK and ETSY.

BABA gapped up in PM and almost made the gappers scanner. I had a long bias this morning. BABA opened with a bullish L2 signal (large ask at $197 and the current bid is 20X larger than the current ask) and a hammer. I went long only 11 seconds after the open (half shares). I got the usual bad fill. My stop was the bottom wick of the 1min candle with 197.94 daily level as the target.

When I took the trade:

I was almost stopped out but held on. Then the big print arrived 59 seconds after the open and was big enough 312k to hint that a move will be happening soon. 1min 17 sec after the open I saw another hammer forming and the L2 signal was larger now so I added shares to be at full size.

When I added:

The instant after I added there were large prints hitting the ask and the price popped. It popped so fast I couldn’t set a limit order. Very quickly I took two partials and the price reversed and I just got my stop at B/E order in right before the price hit my B/E.

I was debating to take another live trade because I felt a little drained from the BABA trade. But I did.

SAGE open huge and now was consolidating. The price just took a strong bounce up from 59.50 and I went long thinking it found support. My target was the high of the day with my stop all the way down to the 200MA-1min. But something happen to my scale when I took my trade. The Y-scale exploded to 50 points and everything flattened. I couldn’t watch the trade anymore. I did have SAGE on another chart on another monitor but it was a naked chart without any tech levels and not even the 200MA I was using as my stop. To make things worse the price reversed the instant I entered the trade. So the price was dropping and I can’t see my stop. So I got out. After I fixed the range on the chart SAGE still looked like a good setup. I checked my P/L and the SAGE stop out was a -0.6R loss thus it prevents me from taking a third live trade (I can only take a third trade if no loss is larger than 0.5R). Thus I missed the big run.

My flatten chart:

My naked chart:

 

I tried 3 SIM trades and everyone I was stopped out in a few seconds. Not helping my confidence.

 

What did I do good today? I did not break any rules. I did bail out of SAGE due to technical difficulties.

What I am grateful from today? I am fine with being flat for the day.

What I should improve on: I need to reproduce the chart issue I had so I can figure how to prevent and fix quickly if needed.

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 12/06/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning with BABA. Very undisciplined trading today.

My watchlist: BABA, ROKU, SAGE, BIG, DOCU and EVRI.

So I had a swing trade sitting at a very critical point at the open. I am trying to learn swing trading now. The platform I am using for swing trading is giving me issues when trying to sell in PM. I even called their tech support yesterday about it and they didn’t have an answer for me. So I couldn’t take profit in the PM and I was stuck waiting until the open. So I was very distracted at the open. I tried to manage my swing trade and start and manage my day trade and as expected I mismanaged both for losses. Since the swing trade was already active I should have closed my day trading platform down and first managed the swing trade. Hopefully next time I will.

BABA gapped up in PM with very strong volume. I waited for the big print signal and it didn’t arrive by 1min after the open. I did have a long bias and there was a somewhat bullish first candle but there was no other signal. If you have no big signal, then I like to have at least 3 small ones before entering a trade. I didn’t and went long on low volume anyway. My stop was touched 7 times during this trade and I still held on.

The big bid finally arrived at 9:32:41 and was quite large at 400k. Five seconds later were the next big prints which give insight on direction and there were very bearish. I immediately stopped out of the trade. Even though I S/O under 1 sec after (I checked my video for this) my exit was 40 cents beyond my stop! I also flipped my position to short, which was filled in under 1 sec and amazingly the fill was 35 cents below my stop. The price fell 80 cents in seconds. I was now 2R from my stop and 1R to my target. I needed to get out of the trade fast. This is something difficult for me to do. This time I got out at -1R even though it was not at a level.

Obviously if I did not take the first trade and waited for the signal I could have gone short where I was stopped out and possibly had a good run today or at least got some partial profit. Instead I got a -2R day.

The big print                   The direction signal

                                                 

 

What did I do good today? I can say I did not break any rules. Only because my rules are not subjective. I don’t have rules like only take good setups. My rules are like trade half shares <1min from open, etc. No gray area.

What I am grateful from today? I am glad I did get out of the second trade at -1R. That is usually difficult for me and I hold onto the original stop.

What I should improve on: Don’t try to manage swing and day trades at the same time. Pick one and manage it.

 Hopefully everyone had a safe trading day. Have a good weekend!

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by Rob C