Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Glenn Budde 356]

I like your discipline switching to SIM and I wish I had it in me to find the AAPL and ROKU type of stocks to trade but I just do not have it (they give me anxiety, LOL)......

I will be going live late next month and am setting myself up to trade SIM in the early part (no live trades for the 5min ORBs) and very discretionary on 10min ORBs until I start to find my trends....... I just hope I will have your discipline.....

Hope today is green for you.... 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 9/26/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning.

I took 3 live trades this morning with AAPL and BABA

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, ROKU and SQ on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I had a long bias on BABA. But I didn’t know what to make of AAPL. BABA had volume immediately after the open and I went long 10 seconds after the open just on momentum. Though the price sat for a few seconds before I clicked my order there was a 0.7R slide move up in price between the order and the fill. Not surprising for BABA but it took away my one and done. So I was long with the 178.70 daily level as my target and there was no really good stop so I used VWAP and went a little light on the shares. I took two very small partials and was waiting for the price to reach 2R. But 15cents shy of 2R the price retraced and I stopped right at B/E. Which isn’t easy to do on BABA. Though my plan is to take small partials until I reach 2R, this close to the open, and without a candle signal, I should have been in scalping mode and my partials should have been at least 1/3 and ½ shares (or even all out at 1.5R) not 1/8 and 1/8. I left a bit of money on the table here.

I then took a trade with AAPL, but to make things easier to journal I will first document my next BABA trade.

I was allowed to take 3 trades after my two small wins today. Though I wish I stopped at two trades. BABA’s price dropped and I took a long when it bounced off of VWAP. Not sure why but I did not give BABA the usual share size slack due to poor fills as usual. So as usual I got a bad fill and thus I had too many shares. Actually, I had the most shares ever with BABA. So I was long with the HOTD was my target and VWAP as my stop. Even with the bad fill (which is just a normal fill with BABA) I still had R/R~2. But my risk was now 1.5R. I did take a partial, but again it was only 1/8 shares so my risk was still high. The price retraced and tested my stop twice. Then the 2^nd 1min candle finished just above my stop, but the 3^rd 1min candle opened a whole R lower!! I instantly exited, but took about a -2.2R loss. Ouch. I so seldomly take a third trade so it hurts that I took such a big loss. Made a green day very red.

Between the two BABA trades I took one AAPL trade. The first 1min candle was a bit indecisive. The 2^nd candle was a nice reverse hammer so I went long when the 3^rd candle went red. My target was 218.50 with VWAP as my stop. Same thing happen as my BABA trade. I took two small partials and waited for the third partial which would be at 2R. Then I would sell a large share size. The price didn’t make it and I exited right at B/E. If I let it go another penny it would have made it to my 2R. But, I thought, this was a well executed trade.

 

Score card (live trades).

BABA	AAPL	BABA
90%	95%	83%

 

What I did good today:  Took 3 good setups.

What I am grateful from today?  -1.5R isn’t too bad for the day after having that disaster trade.

What do I need to improve on:  I knew I had a bad fill and the wrong share size. There was no big internal conflict to exit the trade or reduce my share size. I just didn’t think of it. There is NO instinct at all to do the right thing in a losing or incorrect trade. I have notes on my computer and I read my trading plan (which this is clearly stated) and I still just don’t think of it. I really need to change this. There is only one way and that’s a ton of visualization. Mentally place yourself in a trade that has gone wrong and manage it correctly. Then a different trade, etc…. I need to do this over and over until the instinct is formed.

I read the results of a recent Van K. Tharp Super Trader graduation class. Their average winner was 1.2R. But their average loser was 0.6R. So they still have their winners twice the size of their losers. So they are actually making their money keeping the losers small, not trying to get the big winner. Their win% was just under 50%. That’s really the trick. Keep the losers small. The winners don’t need to be that spectacular. All I visualize when I think of trading is that big win of the week. But what I really need to think of is that well managed small loser of the day!

 

 

Edited September 26, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Friday 9/27/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. I hate having my second worse day of the month on the last day of the month.

I took 3 live trades this morning with MU and BABA

Since MU was very in play I decided to swap it with AAPL as my primary focus. BABA was also on my market open watchlist with ROKU and WFC was on my 5min ORB watchlist.

The daily chart on BABA was forming a pendant. MU had a big gap down. I was watching both to see which would set up. As usual there was a little delay with the volume on BABA but the volume did arrive near the open. So my focus was split. MU open with a nice drop and I was looking for the pull back. My focus was too split and I missed the pull back on MU so I waited for the break of the 45.42 daily level and went short with a the 45.02 level as my target. My stop was tight using the 45.42 level that it just broke. The price dropped and I took a small partial (1/8). Quickly realized I should take a larger partial, which I did (1/4). But reviewing the trade, I was already beyond 2R an should have taken a much larger partial. Unsure why I missed it. Maybe because I am not use to trading stocks this price or my eyes were too focused on BABA which was setting up and I took a second trade. Either way I missed it and the price retraced. But dropped back down where I could have taken another partial, but didn’t and I S/O at B/E for only a small profit, when it could have been a one and done, if I took a larger partial.

BABA had volume earlier than usual. The 50MA-1min was acting as a strong resistance level both in PM and after the open. With a bullish candle it broke through the 50MA and I went long. But I thought my order was not filled. I didn’t see the green triangle and there was nothing in my order or position window. So I clicked buy again and I instantly saw two green triangles. So I thought the price moved so fast my order was split into two when filled. This does happen on BABA. After watching the replay what actually happened is the first order went through. The order was super fast on the order window so it was missed it and the green triangle was displayed only on the 5min chart but not the 1min chart. There was also a second delay showing up in the position window. I was only looking at the 1 min chart and order/position window so I thought the order didn’t go through so I bought again. Then as coincidence would have it the 1min chart showed both orders simultaneous so I thought it was one order.

So I was long with 176.50 as my target and 176 as my stop.

The price retraced and the same thing happen as yesterday. The price was right on stop level at the end of the candle but was 1R lower at the start at the next candle. Ouch again. I quickly exited the trade thinking it was OK since I did set my shares size a bit small to prepare for bad fills on BABA. Not realizing I had double the shares and took a big hit.

BABA dropped bounced and climbed through all the MAs again and I went long with essentially the same setup. This time I was losing a bit of control and went full shares, not giving BABA and slide in price. I did get a good fill with same target but now VWAP as my stop. The price moved up 0.5R where I tried to take a partial and got a bad fill at B/E. The price retraced and I was S/O. Of course the priced popped back right after I S/O.

 

I was feeling almost to the point I was about to go tilt/Hulk and was about to close the platform down and walk away. But to my surprise I recovered quickly and stopped myself from trading more. Since it was the end of the month and I am allowed to look at my P/L. I saw I was down    -2R today. Likely my second worse day of the month. Not a good way to end the month. I was surprised at first. Then I looked at the trading log and saw I double bought on the first BABA trade. Which explains the -2R.

Score card (live trades).

MU	BABA	BABA
89%	87%	90%

 

What I did good today:  My setups were fine.

What I am grateful from today?  Was able to stop myself, with not much effort, from losing control.

What do I need to improve on:  I need a big review of data and determine what to do next month.

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary of the month of September.

Actually a disappointing month. I am almost at my 1 year anniversary going live. On that anniversary day (in 3 weeks) I will be deciding to continue on with this endeavor or stopping. Now when I decided last year to make the big decision on the anniversary, I thought the decision would be obvious. Either I would be profitable, or not profitable but making good progress or really struggling and getting more red each month. But that hasn’t happen. My average profit (per month) for the last 8 months is +0.1R. I have had 6 months of being flat (between +/-3R at the end of the month). Then one month of ~+5R and one month ~-5R. Leaving me flat, difficult to determine if I am making progress and now I am indecisive.

I really tried to focus on the score card this month. I closed my P/L window all month, only to look at it today. This did really help me to help focus on the score card. My score card was a big step up from last month at 89.3%. Last month was 85.9%. But my P/L for the month (which I found out today) was -1R. Thus another flat month.

It was an unusual month that I had no sizeable winner (>1.5R). Usually I have a good winner once a week. But none this month. Though I entered into trades that had a really good run, I was either stopped out before the run or partialed out too quickly missing the run. My win% was a little low at 44%, but I still should be making a profit.

I was under the wrong impression for the past 17 months. I thought you take good setups, get a good entry and you will be profitable. I thought trade management was icing on the cake. It is where you take a small/moderate profit and make it into a larger one. As long as you don’t highly mismanage (like going through your stops – which I don’t) you still should make some profit. But I was wrong. I really nailed the setups this month. And most of my entries were right on. But, still no profit. This was due to poor trade management. Setups, entries and trade management are links in a chain. You break one of them and you still don’t make any profit. I have to admit even though my setups were rock solid this month. My trade management was worse than usual. See the data below.

This is the summary of my score card for the month of September. Three very good scores and one poor. I took 31 trades this month and the table lists how many trades I ranked A,B,C,…. For each scoring category.

	Total	A	B	C	D	F	Grade
Setup	31	28	2	1			A
Entry	31	24	6			1	A-
Partials/Exit	31	8	12	6	2	2	C+
Share Size	31	27	1	4		1	A-
Total							B+

I took 31 trades this month. 28 “A” setups, only two “B” setups and one “C” setup. My entries were reasonably solid, but all the money was eaten by the poor management.

Poor management issues:

1)    I need to bail out of a trade when the fill is really bad. I never did this successfully, even once, all month. I even had chances to exit with a profit. Instead I hold on to my original S/O, which is now farther than -1R.

2)    Took partial profits too often and too quickly. This has always been an issue of mine. Not new this month, just more painful.

3)    I only take partial profits when the trade is going my way. Also, just important is to take a profit when the trade starts to go against and you lose faith in it.

4)    What to do after I take one partial profit and the trade goes against you? It’s not easy for me to stop at B/E after only one partial. And of course I see it so often the trade goes big in my favor right after I stop out.

5)    I forget I can now take 3 trades. This would make stopping out earlier easier. Because I can always get back into the trade. I also took a few amazing SIM trades (my 3^rd trade of the day), because I thought I was already at my trade limit for the day. I remember two +3R trades this month that I took in SIM, thinking too bad I am at my 2 trade limit so I will take in SIM…..

The Van K Tharp institute mentions a study that was done where only random entries would be made on stocks but expert traders, with perfect trade management would trade them. And guess what? They were profitable. Not as profitable of course on a good setup and good entry. But it really says something about the ultra high importance of the trade management.

I am still taking the course (home study version): Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders last month. To place some accountability on myself to finish the course I have been posting my reading notes and assignments online. I was moving through the course reasonably fast until I hit Vol 3 , Chapter 3 which has monster size exercises to finish. I essentially spent the whole month on this one chapter.

 

Stats for February/March/April/May/June/July/August/September:

	February	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept
Total # of live trades	21	34	36	36	38	19	25	31
Hulk Days	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Max Loss Days	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Broke max trade rule	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hoy Key Mistakes	1	1	0	0	1	2	3	1
Score card			81%	81%	84.5%	85.8%	85.9%	89.3%

I need to update my score card methodology. This is the current weight of each category:

	Original	New
Setup	50%	25%
Entry	20%	15%
Partials/Exit	20%	50%
Share Size	10%	10%
Total	100%	100%

 

SIM trades have gone well this month. I definitely see an improvement. Aiming to go live with some 5/10/15 min ORBs in October.

I need to improve on my exiting strategy after I take a first partial profit. Sometimes I stop at B/E, sometimes I stop at the original stop and sometimes I stop at a new stop in between B/E and my original S/O. Wow, this has been working out terribly. Apparently, I am horrible at deciding if to stay in the trade or not. EVERY trade I let go by B/E has never bounced back for me. And yes a lot of trades have bounced back after I S/O at B/E. So with no skills to determine this on the fly, I am going to lock in B/E with my hot keys. I do really want to manually stop, to keep building the mental muscle, but it is not working. Hopefully I will still have the strength to manually stop at my stop level when the trade goes against me without a partial profit taken. I want to leave that manual.

Goals for October:

1)    Don’t go hulk.

2)    Learn to control your emotions after a loss.

3)    The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month.

4)    Keep risk per trade $30.

5)    Keep improving health.

6)    Keep making SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs

7)    Start taking small live 5/10/15 min ORBs when stats say I am ready.

8]    Continue with the Van Tharp course for traders.

9)    Work on being able to manage a trade with a bad entry. Either exit or take shares off the trade to renormalize the risk.

10) Allow a third trade if a previous trade was exited well early for a tactical trade management purpose.

11) Adjust score card to weight trade management heavier.

12) Keep P/L window closed for the whole month of October. Only after the last trading session, on the last day of the month I can look at it. I need to focus on score card only.

13) Rewrite hotkeys to set stop at B/E after I take a partial profit.

14) The goal is to make money. Stop caring if you are right or wrong about a trade. If it was a good setup and well managed, you will always be right.

15) Experiment with a hot key (in SIM) to sell/cover 50% of shares when 1.5R is reached. Decide by end of month if you want to use it live.

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by Rob C

[IamKarthi 342]

Rob , I am not there yet. But i think after one year being flat is impressive. Lot of people blow up their accounts. You have been very disciplined on your trading and you will turn positive soon, I am confident about it.

[IamKarthi 342]

I have read most of your journal. And one thing I find is that when you hit your BE after taking profit, you have lot of shares left. So your 2R profit may turn into effectively ~1R (i know you are also addressing taking early partial just like me). And with your 1R loss on losing trades and with 50% winrate you are probably coming out as Flat. I am just sharing something that is on top of my mind. I know you do extensive analysis on your trades and I may be TOTALLY wrong. but thought will share it for what it's worth. 

[Rob C 826]

39 minutes ago, IamKarthi said:

Rob , I am not there yet. But i think after one year being flat is impressive. Lot of people blow up their accounts. You have been very disciplined on your trading and you will turn positive soon, I am confident about it.

Thanks Vikram

[Rob C 826]

1 minute ago, IamKarthi said:

I have read most of your journal. And one thing I find is that when you hit your BE after taking profit, you have lot of shares left. So your 2R profit may turn into effectively ~1R (i know you are also addressing taking early partial just like me). And with your 1R loss on losing trades and with 50% winrate you are probably coming out as Flat. I am just sharing something that is on top of my mind. I know you do extensive analysis on your trades and I may be TOTALLY wrong. but thought will share it for what it's worth. 

Yes, I have tried to fix this issue mentally with better habits, but it hasn't worked. Either I run out of shares on the big run by partialling to early, or not taking one big partial near 2R to lock in real profits. Next month I am implementing an automatic limit order to try and squeeze more profit out of each trade. With the hallow triangle just staring at me I am hoping I will be a more patient to wait for it to fill. It will also force me to take a large partial profit instead of these tiny ones and have shares left over.

And in case I haven't said it before, I do appreciate you reading the journal. Thanks again.

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 9/27/19.

I already discussed analysis in my monthly so I will only discuss game plan for next week.

Back test data shows BABA and MU are still in play at the open. AAPL has become marginal. If you must trade AAPL do not trade standard 1min ORBs they have stopped working on AAPL. Only trade pull backs or hammers. Here is my plan for this week:

P/L will be closed and not looked at until the end of the month to help focus on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

MU and BABA both look good at the open. Try to look at both at the open. Keep a close eye on the volume with BABA. Wait for the 100k to arrive before entering a trade. Careful MU and BABA have very different personalities and setups. You must have them separate in your mind if you are looking at both stocks at the open.

AAPL is now marginal.  If you must trade AAPL do not trade standard 1min ORBs they have stopped working on AAPL

Keep $30 risk per trade. Even though my score card allows me to increase to $42. I need to keep my risk more constant until I fix my partialling issues.

Remember to take an aggressive partial profit if the price reaches the target.

Try to exit at B/E after a 1st partial. Don’t look for the rebound.

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

Remember you can take a third trade in a day.

Try and take partial profits on the way down as well if you lose faith in the trade. Instead all out at B/E or exit too early.

You may take a live trade on a 5/10/15min ORB if you see a good setup.

Test new auto stop at B/E and auto limit order at 1.5R in SIM. When you feel comfortable with it, try it live.

 

Edited September 30, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Monday 9/30/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. Wow 3 really bad loss days in a row.

I took 3 live trades this morning with AAPL and BABA

AAPL as my primary focus. BABA was also on my market open watchlist with MU and JD was on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Based on back test data MU should be my primary focus, though it can be switched with AAPL depending on PM. I really liked the PM of AAPL today so it became my primary focus and I wasn’t too happy with the SSR on MU. BABA gapped up with vol so was also on my market open focus.

As BABA had no volume right away.  So I was focusing on AAPL which gapped up 1% with vol in the PM and I was definitely long biased. There was a really strong level at 220.95 that was strong resistance in premarket. Once after the open this level also created resistance, so I was waiting for a break to go long. Since the previous test punched through and back by 10 cents I was waiting for a solid break before going long. It didn’t take long and I entered the trade. The fill was bad but that was predictable. My target was the 222 level and my stop was the bottom of the candle. I guessed there would be some slide and gave it a 35 cent stop which was perfect.

I took a tiny partial profit (1/8) due to nerves then took another at my first real level. At first I took a small share size profit. Then I remembered my new rules and took a second one so my partialing size was correct. Then the price spiked down. My new rule is to definitely stop at B/E. I thought it was going to fly right through it so I exited a little early expecting a large slide. The slide didn’t happen and I caught the low. This immediately threw me and I honestly lost my cool. After two bad loss days I really needed a solid win and I knew by being stopped out on the penny the price was going to reach my target. Actually, the price rebound so fast I had no time to reenter the trade. And yes the price did promptly moved higher to my target.

My trading headed downhill from there. It’s too bad, now that I look at it, the AAPL trade was a REALLY good trade. I nailed the setup, the share size (which was tricky) and much better than usual on the trade management. And why get upset about the exit? I am switching to an auto B/E stop out (I won’t be able to thoroughly test it until tomorrow) so this early exit will be fixed soon. So I really should have kept my cool. But I didn’t.

I was definitely on the revenge rampage and saw the volume had arrived for BABA and I wanted to trade again fast. And I almost immediately got into another trade. Now the one good thing is actually this was a solid setup. So it is good that even when I start to lose it I am still taking OK setups.

BABA had a powerful drop with high volume on the first candle. Then I waited for the bull back to short. I expected it to pull back to VWAP, but it found resistance at the PM level. I shorted at the bounce. Obviously I was not running on high quality focus at the time I took the share size without giving it the usual BABA slide. My target was the 168.02 level with VWAP as my stop. The price went against me immediately and I was stopped out.

Though I am allowed 3 trades/day now. I am not allowed to take a third trade after a full R loss let alone the last trade was a larger than -1R loss due to incorrect share size. But I am starting to lose it and I broke my rule and took a third trade again with BABA.

As I was about to get stopped out on my first BABA trade I noticed the really strong hammer being created on the 5min chart. I still have no real bias on BABA and the stock did gap up 2% in PM so long was possible. I tried to flip my position. My target was the HOTD with the PM level as my stop (yellow line on my chart below). Again I entered with the wrong share size (giving no thought to the usual BABA slide) and got a terrible fill. My is now R/R<1 and my risk is 2.5R. Thus I need to get out of the trade or at least cut my shares. This is something I have really been struggling with. I don’t seem to be able to do it. Especially on this trade which the price already started to go against me. So it looks like I was headed to a -3.5R loss for the day, which would be my first max loss day in 8 months (which I am really proud of). Which would be the end of a -7R three day losing streak as I head toward my 1 year trading live anniversary where I have to decide if I quit day trading. I was just about to really lose it when….

Then something surprising happen. I sold half my shares for a slight loss. Yes, fully exiting would be more correct, but this is a major breakthrough for me. I can’t remember when I at least partially exited out of a bad trade. I always just hold on until S/O. Which I did get stopped out shortly after.

About 4 minutes later BABA was getting squeezed into a pendant. I had no directional bias so I waited for the break. It broke lower so I shorted (in SIM). And I have no doubts that I could NOT have made this trade live. Even in SIM it is amazing I was so patient. I was just getting LL and LHs. So I kept waiting and took my first partial at 4R. Then exited the rest of my shares when it looked like it will reverse.

I labeled the trades 1,2,3 on the chart below since it is busier than my usual chart.

 

 

 

Score card (live trades).

AAPL	BABA	BABA
94%	88%	84%

 

What I did good today:  My first trade was really good. I should have just chilled after the S/O.

What I am grateful from today?  I was actually able to cut my shares in half after the bad fill on the third trade to reduce my risk to something acceptable. That’s a breakthrough for me. Right when I thought I may lose it. So I didn’t hit max loss. I live to trade another day.

What do I need to improve on:  I broke the rules on taking a 3^rd trade after a full -1R+ loss. So taking a third trade is off limits until further notice.

Since I had 3 bad trading loss days, I am restricting myself to one live trade a day until my discipline and emotional state gets better.

 

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 10/01/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. I am limited to 1 live trade a day due to 3 big loss days in a row, broke a rule and a general lack of discipline

My 1 live trade this morning was with AAPL. I learned a lot today.

AAPL as my primary focus. BABA was also on my market open watchlist with MU and X was on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Based on back test data MU should be my primary focus, though it can be switched with AAPL depending on PM. I really liked the PM of AAPL today (gap up 0.5% and lots of vol) and its daily chart so it became my primary focus. BABA had a nice daily chart so I also prioritized it over MU.

I was long on AAPL so I was glad to see it drop at the open with lots of volume. So I waited for the reversal and hammer to be formed. Near the close of the first 1min candle a nice hammer was forming. I went long a little bit before the hammer was fully formed since it broke through the 200MA-1min. My target was the 226.08 daily level and my stop the 224.9 PM level. The R/R =4 which is too high for these 1min ORBs. But since I expected a slide on the entry and stop I used a larger 35 cent stop. This made the R/R~2.5 which I felt better about.

So today was interesting. Though my nerves have been much better the past 2 months, today I was especially calm before the open. So when I started to get stressed in the middle of the trade it was wasn’t as bad as usual and I actually remember taking each partial profit and what I was thinking. This is important to analyze how to improve my trade management.

AAPL  had a 8R move, from my entry, in 20 minutes. From my entry to the last shares sold I caught a 3.3R move. But I had so few shares left I felt like not holding them by the end. And though I don’t look at my P/L anymore, I can estimate I, at most, made ~1.5R in the trade. So again I let the trade that could of made my month or at least my week, go with just an OK profit.

The first move up was reasonably quick and I took a tiny partial (1/8). Then over the next two minutes I had my finger on the sell all button as the price jerked up and down and tested the HOTD 5 times. On the 6^th time I lost faith in the trade (even though the candle created another hammer and SPY was going up) and I took a ¼ shares profit. The price moved up 2 seconds after. Yes I didn’t know that, but I made so little taking ¼ shares at a 20 cent move. I should have saved them. If I did not take that partial and took all the other partials at the same spot, this would have been a 2.2R trade. A big difference.

The price then moved quickly and reached my first real partial profit target HOPM. Where I took a partial. Then the price tested that level 3 more times over the next 2.5 minutes. Now my finger has been on the sell all button for 5 minutes, ready to spring into action. So finally the price broke the HOPM. This is where you sit on your hands and watch the price move up. But after 5 minutes on edge, thinking I need to exit at any second, I took two reasonably sized partials for almost reason. The one thought I had at that moment is AAPL tends to give you about 60 cents on these 1min ORBs, so I had the feeling I should take a partial there. Taking two there was just due to nerves. The price finally reached my target, with little shares left and I partialed a little early. Then with very few shares left I sold the rest at the next daily level. Where I also sold a little early compared to that level. So 7 partials and 3 of them there was no need. But that 2^nd partial was the most costly.

 

Score card (live trades). Using the new scoring:

 

	Original	New
Setup	50%	25%
Entry	20%	15%
Partials/Exit	20%	50%
Share Size	10%	10%
Total	100%	100%

 

AAPL

91%

What saved my score today is at least I held on to those last few shares until the next tech level.

What I did good today:  Great entry.

What I am grateful from today?  Was especially calm before the open.

What do I need to improve on:  Need to be stronger not taking partial profits in between the tech levels.

 

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 10/02/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. I am limited to 1 live trade a day due to 3 big loss days in a row, broke a rule and a general lack of discipline.

My 1 live trade this morning was with AAPL. It left me a bit spinning. Starting to feel better now.

AAPL as my primary focus. BABA was also on my market open watchlist with MU and NFLX was on my 5min ORB watchlist. It was odd but I liked AAPL, MU, and BABA from the premarket and wasn’t sure which to focus on. At the last minute I chose AAPL and BABA really for no other reason then it is much easier to watch that combo than say AAPL and MU due to different prices and personalities.

AAPL open with good volume and bounced of the HOPM. I decided to go long if it broke that level. Since I was a bit short bias I knew this trade would probably be a fast scalp so I did jump the gun a bit and entered the trade before a clear break. My target was 224 and stop 223. But in less than a minute it made a clean break and I took one partial. The price quickly retraced and I got stopped out.

But this is where the emotional strain hit. Before I got stopped out I was thinking this looks like a really good short, so my instinct was to flip my position well before my stop. But I can’t because I am currently on a 1 trade/day restriction. So instead I held onto the position longer to a full –R. I tried to switch to SIM quickly and take it short, but it took to long and I felt like I was chasing it so I didn’t.

I was already feeling low after the AAPL trade, then worse after my SIM trades. I first took two SIM trades simultaneously. One I was stopped out by 2 cents than the stock went for its run without me. The other stock I did get two partials than I was stopped out by a penny and then it went for its run without me. Then I started to overtrade (on SIM) and took 4 poor trades and got S/O on each one. Which forms more bad habits.

That’s when I felt my lowest. But about an hour later is when I realized that the main reason I am forcing myself to one trade/day is punitive. If I go back to SIM, that is like a vacation to me. But I really need to feel the pain for breaking one of my rules on Monday. And today was a perfect way to solidify that. It hurt not being able to flip the position. And I will likely stay on the one trade restriction for the rest of the week.

I also decided to take advantage on the remaining two days this week. Since I am on a one trade/day restriction I can do less damage. So I should be experimenting with different stocks and setups. Data I took, a few months ago, is that my win% was much better on stocks that I know well. But that was a few months ago. I may be a better trader now. So I decided to trade stocks in play that I like for the next two days.

Score card (live trades). Using the new scoring:

 

	Original	New
Setup	50%	25%
Entry	20%	15%
Partials/Exit	20%	50%
Share Size	10%	10%
Total	100%	100%

 

AAPL

89%

What I did good today:  Stayed on the 1 trade/day restriction, though FOMO was high.

What I am grateful from today?  That I did recover from the FOMO. Though it took a couple of hours.

What do I need to improve on:  Will take advantage of the trading restriction to trade stocks I usually don’t and try to learn from them.

 

[IamKarthi 342]

I was short biased on $AAPL too, although couldn't trade it. Yesterday's daily was a nice Shooting star. 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 10/03/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. I am limited to 1 live trade a day due to 3 big loss days in a row, broke a rule and a general lack of discipline.

My 1 live trade this morning was with TSLA. Since I am restricted to one trade I was hoping to trade something different.

Though I was hoping to trade something new, AAPL still looked good in the PM so was one of my top 2 focuses. TSLA was definitely in play. I liked GPRO but Centerpoint did not have shares to short. BBBY looked good so I kept an eye on it on a side chart.

TSLA opened weak and I was watching for a pull back to VWAP. I missed it since I was looking at AAPL and BBBY at the same time since they looked about to setup as well. So I shorted TSLA on a standard 1min ORBD with the break of the candle body. My target was quite far away at the 227.89 level that is not even on the chart below. And my stop was VWAP. Not that pretty of a setup but a huge R/R so it was worth a try. I went half shares knowing TSLA can smash right through your stop and give you a -2R. Just as I entered the trade with TSLA both AAPL and BBBY both setup. But I have a one trade limit so I just had to watch them. The price quickly retraced and I was stopped out with a huge, but expected, slide. Since I went half shares I only lost -.8R. Though my target was far away, the price did drop and reach my target 20 minutes later, showing it was a good calculated risk.

I quickly switched to SIM since I wanted to catch TSLA if it setup again. But instead I saw a setup on BBBY.

BBBY open strong and created a mini ABCD inside the 5min candle. Essentially this was a 5min ORB that I took a little early because I thought it may pop if it goes red to green. My target was 10.24 level with 200MA-5min as my tight stop. I tried something new. I am really focusing on taking partial profits better. So I pressed a newly created button which sent a limit order at 2R to sell 50% of my shares. Since 2R is right at a level it was a really strong spot to aim for. Then I sat on my hands. I would have likely taken 4 partials on the way to my target, but with the order already in (and in SIM) I was able to wait and get my order filled. Shortly after I saw something scary in the T/S, though I do not have a recording of it so I can’t go back and check what it was. But it was enough I got all out.

The price dropped then the signal disappeared and I got back in at a lower price with a slightly higher target and PDC as my stop. I waited patiently and took two heavy partials then all out at B/E. Another button I set up to place a stop at B/E. I have been getting out to early. A nice +4R winner.

Besides traded something new, using some new hotkeys, I also decided yesterday to look at my P/L every day (after trading was finished). The month without it helped me get my mind a little more focused on the training not trading aspect. But, it is also counter productive. I still need to know my P/L to help evaluate my trades. And I was instinctively estimating my P/L anyway which takes longer and is a waste of time.

Score card (live trades). Using the new scoring:

 

	Original	New
Setup	50%	25%
Entry	20%	15%
Partials/Exit	20%	50%
Share Size	10%	10%
Total	100%	100%

 

TSLA

89%

 

What I did good today:  Traded something new. Kept to my 1 trade restriction.

What I am grateful from today?  I really like the 2R limit order button.

What do I need to improve on:  Keep trading different stocks in play. Maybe wait for the break of the wick on 1min ORBs if the end of the wick is close.

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 10/04/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. I am limited to 1 live trade a day due to 3 big loss days in a row, broke a rule and a general lack of discipline.

My 1 live trade this morning was with MU.

AAPL was definitely in play. MU PM looked a little better than BABA so MU was my second focus. I also liked AVYA and placed it on a side chart.

Both AAPL and MU opened weak. According to back test data APPL does not trade well from a standard 1min ORB. You need a hammer (or reverse) or a pull back. AAPL did not give those signals so I didn’t trade it. Though today a standard 1min ORB would have done very well.

So I took a standard 1min ORBD with MU. Though my mouse curser was 2 screens away from the montage. So by the time I was able to click the short key I lost about 5 cents. But I saw this and took small share size to compensate. My target was the 43.36 daily level and VWAP as my stop. This was a green to red play, but PDC was coupled with the 200MA and a tech level. The price tried to break these levels twice and failed and I was stopped out for -0.7R.

I quickly switched to SIM and shorted MU when it made another go at PDC. It broke through this time and I set a limit order at the target of 43.36. My stop was really tight using the 43.54 daily level. Setting limit orders on my SIM trades this week has gone well and has helped my patience. My order was filled and I took another partial, then exited when it was threatening PDC again.

At the same time I took a SIM trade with BABA. It was essentially an early 5min ORB and I got a bad fill. But the trade went in my favor quickly and I sold half my shares to reduce the risk. Then quickly sold the rest when the price stalled. I went short again 30 seconds later with a better entry and again I set a limit order at my target and waited for it to be filled. Its funny how good BABA has traded the last two days, since it was the only two days in weeks I was not looking at it at the open.

Score card (live trades).

 

MU

87%

 

What I did good today:  Traded something new. Kept to my 1 trade restriction.

What I am grateful from today?  Did well on SIM trades again today (+3.7R)

What do I need to improve on:  Will try limit orders next week on live trades.