Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 9/11/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Having caffeine withdrawal issues.

I took 1 live trade this morning, with AAPL.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and PLAY on my 5min ORB watchlist.

The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA still looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open. Same thing happen, the volume immediately arrived for AAPL  and as usual not BABA so I was highly focusing on AAPL. I was long biased on AAPL. The scenario I was hoping for was a slight pull back then a hammer would be created and I would go long when it broke the 218.16 level. That price was really respecting in the premarket. And this scenario did occur. But while I was waiting for it to unfold a big ask appeared in the L2 and I immediately went long.

I still can’t believe how fast I took the trade. Sorry if it sounds like I am boasting, but I am really proud of myself. I keep watching the video. I guess you can really train your brain like a muscle. Now after almost 1 year live I guess my brain is starting to function more efficiently. Within one or two clicks of the clock, the big ask appeared, I saw it and recognized it as a go signal, I decided to take the trade, I recalculated my share size based on the better entry (something I messed up on recently) and pressed the correct buy button. Holy smokes!!

So I went long on the ask signal with 219 as my target (very few levels above current price now). With 217.50 as my stop, which was respected in premarket.

I mentioned yesterday that I shouldn’t use the new 1/8 partial on these opening trades since they are more like scalps. But when the price reached the first tech level, this was the entry I was originally looking for. So why take a substantial partial on a candle that looks like an entry? So I did take a couple of rapid fire 1/8 share size partials. Still too many but now less damaging. I took my first big partial at 218.75. I did take a couple more partials after but I didn’t have too many shares left. I don’t look at my P/L, but eyeballing the trade it looks like I made my 2R.

 

I then took 4 SIM trades. Two on BABA. First one I forgot about the spread and only broke even. Then I watch the spread closer and made a small profit on the second trade. Then I took 2 SIM trades with ROKU and immediately forgot that ROKU’s spread and price action is even more volatile than BABA. I took a short without looking at the spread (with too tight of a stop) and got a horrible fill so I immediately got out with another horrible fill. I was -3R in seconds, wow. Then I carefully watched the spread and took another short with a good run, but likely my profit was less than -3R. So definitely need more SIM time on ROKU.

Score card (live trade):

AAPL

93%

 

What I did good today:  I really like the quick entry decision on AAPL

What I am grateful from today?  That my ROKU trade was on SIM not live.

What do I need to improve on:  Keep working on the 1/8 sell/cover button usage.

 

Edited September 11, 2019 by Rob C

[Mark D. 435]

6 hours ago, Rob C said:

 

I still can’t believe how fast I took the trade. Sorry if it sounds like I am boasting, but I am really proud of myself

Boast away my friend! excellent trading!! 

[Mike B 624]

Very nice Trade

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 9/12/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. Wow, what a bad trading day. My head is still spinning a bit.

I took 2 live trade this morning, with AAPL.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and BHGE on my 5min ORB watchlist.

The setup is the same. The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA still looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open. Same thing happen, the volume immediately arrived for AAPL and as usual not BABA so I was highly focusing on AAPL. I had no bias on AAPL. My premarket plan specifically stated no pullback trades on AAPL in the first minute. Hammers are fine in that time frame. The <1min pullbacks did work well for many weeks but they now have too low of a success probability. So of course that I took a <1min pullback and instantly regretted it. The price broke through a strong PM level on good volume and held the level. After, what I thought was enough time I went long. The target was the $226 level with another PM level (224.80) as my stop. Wow it instantly reversed after my fill and I stopped out seconds later for a full-1R.

At my stop it now created a very nice hammer setup. The ones I like with a strong level ahead of it to pull it a bit. Essentially the setup I said to take in my morning trading plan. So I flipped my position. The order did not go through and I was left with a hollow triangle. Out of frustration I tried the short again and was given a horrible fill 30 cents lower than expected. According to the trading logs I see a 30 cent difference in the accepting price and the execution price.

As usual I am stuck in my worse trade where personality flaws does not allow me to do the right thing, which is to just bail out of the trade. I even made a rule to give myself another trade (I usually have a 2 trade limit) if I exit on a bad fill trade. Bad fills happen. I need to be able to handle them efficiently. Instead I first got really irritated that if I got the original fill I would have been nearly 1.5R in my favor already. Then I got worried about the open order. I really didn’t want a pull back trigger another short, so I cancelled the order. Nothing happen. I tried cancelling 5 more times with no effect. I wasn’t even paying attention to the trade. 28 seconds later the cancellation went through. Why did it take so long? Does anyone know how that happens?

So what happens, is what always happens. I get stopped out at my originally planned stop out level. Which of course is now twice as large. Then I took a really bad revenge trade (-3R), thank goodness I switched to SIM before I did that. That two trade limit is really forged into my brain. But I still shouldn’t have done it. I don’t want to reinforce new bad habits. I already have enough of those. Then I calmed down and took two solid winners on SIM.

I am not looking at my P/L this month, but I really need to know if I hit max loss. I have a rule not to trade the following day. Plus, I never reached my daily max loss in the last 7 months, I really needed to know. It looks like I had -3R loss today. So I looked at my account balance for today (not the month), which is kinda breaking my rule, but I felt better than looking at my P/L and some how I was a few dollars under my max loss. Not sure how, but I felt a lot better knowing I didn’t break it.

Score card (live trades):

The first trade score wasn’t as bad as I thought, since I did manage the trade very well and it was a really good <1min pullback. It’s just I didn’t follow my morning plan so I took a -15% on that. The second trade was of course painful and I destroyed my whole months score card. Which was >90% before today. I added my scoring criteria today for reference.

	AAPL	AAPL		AAPL	AAPL
Setup	35%	47%		85%	67%
Entry	20%	5%
Partials/Exit	20%	5%
Share Size	10%	10%
Total	85%	67%

 

What I did good today:  The first trade was at least managed well.

What I am grateful from today?  I didn’t hit max loss

What do I need to improve on:  Here is the plan:

1)    Increase market limit order range. It was originally set a long time ago for stocks like MU. These higher price stocks need more space. But I have been trading AAPL for months without issue. Now I am having order fill issues. Today was not the first time recently.

2)    Will post, in my journal, parts of the next days trading plan that I already know. To help with accountability.

3)    Investigate why it took 28 seconds to cancel my order. Would the order gone through, in those 28 seconds, if the entry price was reached? Is that a concern?

4)    Will try adding lots of visual cues about exiting trades with poor fills. I haven’t used things like posted notes and signage in months. I will create one.

 

Trading plan for Friday 9/12/10:

1)    Don’t trade the pullback setup < 1min on APPL

2)    Don’t try a 1min ORB, on AAPL, if the body of the first candle is >60 cents

3)    Watch the spread on BABA and ROKU.

4)    Partial in scalp mode, if the trade is taken <1min from open.

5)    Watch the opening volume on BABA

6)    Bail on trades with poor fills. The trade per day limit will increase to 3 if exiting a poor fill trade is performed.

7)    Take half shares since it is Friday

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 9/13/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. My daughter woke me up crying last night at 1:30am, so I am a little sluggish today. It was an interesting day.

Centerpoint did send out an email stating they had IT issues yesterday. So I am assuming my order cancellation issue yesterday was due to that.

I took 3 (yes 3) live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA.

I hand wrote my plan for today to help stick to it.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, and ROKU on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Yes I am saying the same thing all week about the open:

The setup is the same. The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA still looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open.

I had no bias on AAPL. I have seen it pop or drop with this same PM action. My premarket plan specifically stated no pullback trades on AAPL in the first minute. So I waited for a hammer. So a very powerful hammer was being formed in the first minute with AAPL. I was waiting for the hammer to become white so I could go long. Or finish the 1min candle and take a 1min ORBU, Then, while there was still a little red left, a large ask appeared about 5 cents above the current price. So I went long.

My target was the $221 dollar level with a stop of 219.59 PM level. The price moved up a few cents then quickly dropped and I was S/O where planned. I probably should have been more aggressive with the S/O. Once it was apparent the 2^nd 1min candle was not going to make a new high I should have exited. But generally I thought this was a good trade. Yes without the L2 signal it was a B setup. But I think with the L2 signal makes it into an A setup.

For my second AAPL trade, AAPL dropped and hit support on the two daily levels. Then started to stall, making a mini ABCD. I really liked the R/R~3 so I shorted with the 218.16 daily level as my target and 219.59 PM level as my stop. The price quickly dropped and I took a small partial. I was hoping this would run so I was not in scalping mode. Then I waited 3 minutes and saw SPY really starting to spike up. So I took another small partial profit.  Only took a small partial since the 1min chart the candles were making LH/LLs. Then the price rushed up quickly. I exited when it broke the 219.32 level. There was a bit of a slide, so I think this trade was a loss as well.

 

 

 

I didn’t consciously take a third trade. There was no internal fight or revenge, I just didn’t think about rules at all I just took 3 trades. Since they all were overlapping in time it might not have felt like it at the time. I remember taking each trade, but I was surprised to see 3 live trades were taken at the end of the session.

BABA was interesting. It dropped for 45 minutes in the PM then only the last 10min it popped back up. The price went higher at the open. Then 25 seconds after the open a HUGE buy order went through:

What was interesting is the market really didn’t care and the price started to aggressively drop. So it felt like the sellers were in control if they were ignoring such a large buy. So I took the lack of interest of the huge buy as a bearish signal. I could be very wrong, since I have never used that signal before.

There were lots of levels below the current price. But I thought if it could break through them all (all the MAs including the 200MA-1min, VWAP and the 173.02 daily level) I would go short. The price did and I went short. I took half share size since I never used a signal like this before. My target was PDC with my stop at VWAP. I also liked the daily level in the way so it could help pull the price toward it. The price dropped a little, not enough to take a partial. The next 1min candle was an inverted hammer still giving me hope. Then the price made a clear break of VWAP and I got stopped out.

If you have any insight on this trade let me know. I am still not sure how wise it was to use the large buy as a bearish signal.

Then I over traded in SIM. I am left with a bad feeling about my trading session because of it.

Score card (live trades):

	AAPL	AAPL	BABA
	91%	90%	91%

What I did good today:  I really like my three live trades I took today. Since they all were losses it has left me wondering if they were really good.

What I am grateful from today?  I kept my eye on the tape.

What do I need to improve on:  Take less SIM trades. I think I will lock myself into 3 SIM trades max from now on.

 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Monday 9/16/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. Two nights of poor sleep and caffeine withdrawal headache.

I took 1 live trade this morning, with AAPL. And 3 SIM trades.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and SLB on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Yes I am saying the same thing all week about the open:

The setup is the same. The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA still looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open.

I had lots of bias on AAPL. I like when AAPL drops >1% in PM then recovers at least ½ of it before the open. It tends to pop up the remaining part of the gap at the open. I also liked the last 5min candle before the open was a nice hammer. So any excuse to long I would take.

AAPL quickly created a small hammer and I went long the moment the hammer turned white. PDC was my target and the 200MA-1min was my stop. R/R~2.5 which is perfect. R/R>3 don’t seem to work at the open. I took my first partial at the HOPM/Daily level, but then the price started to stall so I took two more partials before the price dropped. I have been burned lately hold to B/E as the price seems to accelerate through my stop and I turn winners into losers. Since I still had a lot of shares left (43%) I exited when it broke through the daily level. I forgot about my plan to partial half my shares and hold to B/E. In the middle of a trade I always forget I am trying to optimize my exit. The price bounced before my B/E and made it to my target without me.

The second trade on the chart above was on SIM. My wellbeing score was low, so I was happy to call it a one trade day. The candle bodies made a nice wedge and I went long on the break to the PDC. I also took 2 SIM trades on BABA and yes I forgot about the spread on the first trade and was chopped up. Then I remembered and took a winning trade.

Score card (live trades):

AAPL 95%

What I did good today:  Really good score card.

What I am grateful from today?  My AAPL long bias was correct.

What do I need to improve on:  Need to remember my trading plan. Exit only half shares if still not near B/E. And watch the spread on BABA and ROKU.

 

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 9/17/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, SQ and KHC on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Yes I am saying the same thing all week about the open:

The setup is the same. The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA still looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open.

No bias on AAPL or BABA. Both were toying with red to green. So they either punch through for a long or find resistance for a short. Volume actually arrived at the open for both. Both went red to green and then rejected it. So both looked like a short. AAPL set up first with a nice reverse hammer. I shorted as it turned red. My target was the 219.32 daily level with my stop at HOTD~220. I did get 3 small partials though 2 were bad fills. Then the price spiked higher. I was worried about a red to green move and I got out quickly. The price flew by B/E with most of my shares. So this was a small loss. Then AAPL did setup again for another short but I no longer trusted it. Too bad because it did reach and go past my target.

My second trade was with BABA. The price rejected the PDC strongly and made a nice 2min reverse hammer. I tried to go short when it broke down through the 200MA-5min. But, didn’t get a good fill but that is common on BABA. So I made a mistake from the beginning. Since I was watching BABA for about 20 seconds I lost track of the time and entered the trade at 9:31:59. I don’t like taking trades close to the end of a candle. If I saw that I would wait until the candle finishes and if the next candle breaks through the body, which it didn’t. So I was immediately stuck in a trade that wasn’t as good as I hoped. My target was the 175.30 level with my stop at PDC. After my bad fill my R/R~1.5. But I really like the 200MA-1min and 176.02 daily level are in the way making it a strong level to pull the price down for a partial profit taking.

After 2 minutes I took off a little to reduce my risk. After 6 minutes the price did reach my first partial target, but I don’t like to sell/cover on BABA without checking the spread. But by the time I checked at the spread the price jumped back up. I think in this situation I probably should have just taken the partial.

I held for awhile, then there was one last attempt to break VWAP and go lower. It failed and volume was gone so I exited early. Which is good, because I realized after the trade I took too large of a share size. So with the early exit I kept the loss to about -1R.

What BABA looked like when I took the trade:

The entire trade:

Score card (live trades):

AAPL BABA 91% 80%

What I did good today:  Exited early from a trade.

What I am grateful from today?  Stayed in a trade for 17 minutes. That’s really long for me.

What do I need to improve on:  Watch the clock and share size. These are tasks I usually don’t have to worry about, so always need to keep those near perfect.

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 9/18/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and FDX on my 2-5min ORB watchlist.

Yes I am saying the same thing all week about the open:

The setup is the same. The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA still looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open.

I had a small long bias on AAPL since it commonly has a ~60 cent pop at the open when it has some positive movement in the last hour of PM. AAPL opened above all the support levels and I was waiting for the hammer to form. I tried to go long the moment it turned white, but I saw the pop just after I clicked buy. The order delay cost me about 10 cents, but that’s OK. I already assume that slide and already added 10 cents into my stop when I calculated the share size. My target was the 222.39 daily level with the 200MA-1min as my stop. But the R/R ~3 which I know is a bit unrealistic at the open. But I like the strong levels just above my entry to help pull the price up.

The price reversed immediately after I took the trade. But for 3 minutes the price held to a really strong support level above the 200MA-1min. Too bad I have a no add rule to my live trades, because that looked like a great ABCD setup. The price finally started to move up and I took very small partials at the first two levels HOPM and the 221.51 daily level. After that I tried just partialing at the 1min highs until I ran out of shares.

BABA actually got volume at the open, but a lot of it was one big buy. I liked the first 1min indecision candle with good volume. I liked all the support levels were already below the price. I tried to go long when the 2^nd 1min candle broke above the wick of the first candle, but I got a lot of slippage. But again this is OK I already assumed that in my share size calculation and went long with a 50 cent stop, knowing there would be some slippage. So my target was 180.41 daily level with PDC as my stop. My first partial was very small because it was out of nerves. My second partial profit was larger since it reached my first partial profit target. Then I took another small partial because I was losing faith in the trade. Exit was tricky because the price found support just above my B/E. So I want to make sure I don’t miss the bounce from support but I don’t want the price to fly through my B/E (like yesterday) and turn a small win into a losing trade. Looks like I exited OK for a small win.

Score card (live trades):

AAPL	BABA
91%	91%

What I did good today:  Good score cards

What I am grateful from today?  Managed two trades at once at the open.

What do I need to improve on:  Getting better at the partialing, but need to get use to keep partialing as you lose faith in the trade. I seem to always want to take partial profit only on a new high.

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 9/19/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. Little bit of a scratchy throat. Kids are sick, so probably fighting off what they have.

I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA.

It is interesting to see this month and especially today that just minor nuisances can separate you from being consistently profitable and being flat. I control my risk. I keep to my stops and choose appropriate stops. I am usually very accurate with share size. I have been pretty good lately trading good setups and getting good entries. I have tried to focus on the process, I haven’t looked at my P/L all month. But, I have been flat for over 7 months and I can tell, without looking at my P/L, I am flat so far this month. I just need to improve on the trade management.

Psychology of course is preventing me to perform the correct management.

I have two major issues:

1.    It’s difficult to admit that I am wrong

a.    So I take partial profits to early and often. Thus locking in a win.

b.    I don’t bail out of trades quickly with terrible fills (R/R is destroyed). Can’t admit I am wrong until I hit my stop.

2.    Self sabotaging

a.    Do you realize how difficult it is to remain exactly flat for over 7 months? It must be unconsciously controlled.

b.    If I see 4 good days of trading and it’s all given back on Friday

c.     If I see I am very green after 3 weeks and give it all back on the last week

d.    The one month I was actually green (+5.6R) I had to trick myself by suddenly choosing to stop trading the last two days of the month to lock in the green month

e.    Guess what, the next month after my green month was my first red month since January. Guess how red? -5.8R essentially cancelling out the previous month keeping me amazingly walking exactly on a tightrope of being flat.

The journaling of today will read the same story.

So finally, the setup that I have been waiting for the past two weeks, with BABA finally arrives. In the PM the price breaks through the resistance level creating a huge wedge on the daily chart. I was REALLY long bias on BABA today.

Any sign in the long direction and I was going long with BABA.  BABA almost immediately created a small hammer with large volume, a few seconds after the open and I went long. Since it was so soon after the open I kept a reasonably large stop at the 180.41 daily level. There was no target. All tech levels were no below the price. The price moved up a little bit and I took 2 very small partials. The price dropped to test VWAP again and stopped at B/E. there was some slippage so I think this trade was a small loss.

Stopping at B/E is in my trading plan now. I was giving my stops some room, if there was a strong tech level below it, but after collecting data for awhile it was deemed unprofitable. Now I try to keep the stop tight on B/E. The price bounced and I could have gone long again. I am not sure why I didn’t. I guess self-sabotage. I missed a 7R move.

Later, after my AAPL trade, I took a 5min ORBU with BABA in SIM. I am allowed to take a 3^rd trade live now, once certain criteria is met. So I could have taken it live. I have a post it note on my screen reminding me of this. I read my daily trading plan a minute before the open to remind me. So did I do it? Nope forgot again….. I told myself it was too bad I am at my limit of two live trades and I took it SIM.

I had a long bias with AAPL today as well. I like that it created a hammer on the daily chart with the PM price movement. I liked it was opening just under PDC. I went long on a 2min ORBU when it broke the 50MA-1min and the HOTD. My stop was tight, so I took a lot of shares. Stop was at the 222.39 daily level and my target was the 223.04 daily level. I took 3 partials, all really small. The plan is always take a substantial profit (at least half the shares) if the target is reached. I didn’t and took another small partial at the target. The price dropped quickly after that. I also planned to start taking partials on the way down as well. I didn’t. And with a majority of shares still left the price shot through my B/E for another small loss.

 

Score card (live trades).

It is surprising to see how high the score is on BABA trade since it was such a disappointing trade. But, the real mistake was not entering a new trade after the S/O.

BABA AAPL 95% 87%

What I did good today:  Recognized good setups and entered the trade right on time.

What I am grateful from today?  Seeing the bright side, that I am almost there. Just need to get over this last hurdle.

What do I need to improve on:  

1)    Need to get use to keep partialing as you lose faith in the trade. I seem to always want to take partial profit only on a new high.

2)    Remember you are allowed to take 3 trades if the criteria is met. Don’t forget!

3)    Take a large partial at the target. Don’t forget.

4)    Deal with the self-sabotage

5)    A losing trade doesn’t mean you were wrong. It was a statistical setup with proper risk.

[Rob C 826]

Friday 9/20/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA.

So I am still long bias on BABA with its break out daily chart and good PM. I also have a small long bias on AAPL with its long steady move up in PM. Just before the open AAPL fell 50 cents on good volume. Then recaptured the 50 cents right after the open on enormous volume. The price broke the HOPM and stalled. I don’t take these trades any more at the open. They are essentially ABCD patterns using seconds instead of minutes. But the volume was so high I went long. My stop was an issue. There were two choices. 200MA-1min which was too far away or the 50MA-1min which doesn’t seem to have any strength in the first minute. So I did choose the 50MA but I went half shares because the stop is too tight and not strong. My target was the 222.50 level.

The price did pop and I took two very small partial profits. I was waiting for the 222.39 daily level where I was planning to sell half my shares. The price just missed that level and retraced, just enough to stop me out. Then it sprang back and reached my target. Actually, with a little slippage on the exit I did get a tiny loss on this trade. As I said yesterday just a slight change in trade management would have made this slight loss into a solid win. What that change is and how do I get there I do not know yet.

Though not right away, volume did arrive for BABA. The price moved up $1 and I was waiting for a pullback. It did arrive and I went long after the bounce from VWAP. There was no good target or stop. So I chose a long stop to the bottom of the previous candle since BABA usually doesn’t respect VWAP for a few minutes after the open.

The price moved up and I took a very small partial at 183 and tried to take another partial at 183.20 but got a bad fill. So the third partial was just to make up for the bad fill on the second. But all 3 partials were very small. Then the price reached the 183.38 daily level where I took a large partial profit. Price dropped quickly after that. Then I saw a HUGE sell at the bid in the time and sales window and I exited immediately at 183, well above my entry.

I took two SIM trades on MU. First one S/O and second one an OK win. So I am flat for the SIM trades.

Score card (live trades).

AAPL	BABA
91%	96%

 

What I did good today:  Wow, really good score cards today. Good watching volume.

What I am grateful from today?  That time and sales signal on BABA really saved me from that big drop.

What do I need to improve on:  Nonlinear increase in partial size is working out OK. I just need to keep at it and improve on it.

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 9/20/19.

My best score card week since I have been tracking it at 91%. I took 9 trades with a win% of ~44%.  Since I don’t look at my P/L anymore I am unsure if I am positive for the week but I think I am. I will look at it at the end of the month. Again I had one of those trades that would make my month and I stopped out early by pennies. I also had an issue forgetting I can take 3 trades per day now (with limitations).

Though my partial profit taking is still too often the 1/8 share sell/cover button has helped mitigate some of the damage.

I took some SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) which were pretty good.

My trades this week were with AAPL and BABA. Both of their daily charts look interesting so I think there could be another week of trading them at the open.

Back test data shows AAPL, BABA, and MU all in play at the open. So I have ample good stocks to trade at the open.

Here is my plan for this week:

P/L will be closed and not looked at until the end of the month to help focus on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL and BABA both look good at the open. Try to look at both at the open. Keep a close eye on the volume with BABA. Wait for the 100k to arrive before entering a trade.

MU is also still in play at the open. It can be become a primary focus if PM volume is there.

Keep $30 risk per trade. Even though my score card allows me to increase to $42. I need to keep my risk more constant until I fix my partialling issues.

Remember to take an aggressive partial profit if the price reaches the target.

Try to exit at B/E after a 1st partial. Don’t look for the rebound.

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

Remember you can take a third trade in a day.

Try and take partial profits on the way down as well if you lose faith in the trade. Instead all out at B/E or exit too early.

You may take a live trade on a 5/10/15min ORB if you see a good setup.

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 9/23/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA.

I have no directional bias on BABA but thought it may move today, based on how it broke out a little on the daily then retraced back. I had a small long bias on AAPL, from its 50 cent climb in the last minute of PM. AAPL made a small hammer on OK volume. From the moment I clicked buy until the order was filled the price jumped 20 cents. My target was the 200MA-5min and my stop was the previous HOPM. So that bad fill made my R/R~2 reduced to 1.2. Sadly it took me 5 minutes to finally want to take the right action and reduce my risk. And then I missed my chance. So sadly I made my big trade management mistake and held on to a bad fill trade again. But I do give myself a little slack here because I did take two trades at once. And for the first time had to manage two trades where one was long and one was short. Which I found a bit demanding.

So I did take a partial profit, but I should have taken 1/3 shares off at least to place my risk back to -1R. Or just completely exit the trade for a profit. But, instead I only sold 1/8 of my shares. After 5 minutes I finally came to my senses and wanted to take a large partial. I was planning to take off half my shares when it hit 219.30 level again. The problem is when it did my cursor (I use a mouse not hotkeys) was 2 screens away on the cover all button because I was about to be stopped out on my other trade. So I missed my chance and 2 minutes later got stopped out at my originally planned stop for an estimated -1.3R. I don’t look at my P/L anymore so it’s just an estimate. I had so many chances to get out with small profit or B/E after the bad fill. I need to break whatever belief I have that I need to stay in the trade and try to be right. I rather just make money.

I also took a live trade with BABA. 2.5 minutes after I entered (and was still actively in) the AAPL trade, BABA was setting up nicely as a short. It was weak and gave 3 strong red candles. Then pulled back to the 180.45 level and found resistance. I shorted on the bounce from that level. I expected there would be a bad fill and entered with less shares. Instead I got a good fill and now felt FOMO for having too few shares. This brings out another trade management issue I have. You must manage the trade based on the trade’s very individual risk. Which on this trade was 30-35 cents. Instead I tend to manage the trade based on my fixed risk, which was 50 cents (based on the shares taken). This caused me to mismanage the trade.

So I entered the trade with 178.80 level as my target and the 180.45 as my stop. I took 3 very small partial profits on the way to 2R where I would take a large partial. But here in lies the problem. How am I defining 2R? Trade specifically I have already reached about 2.7R and should take a large partial profit. But instead I am thinking my fixed R=$30 dollars which translate to 50 cent risk for this trade and thus I am only at about 1.8R. So I was waiting for a slightly lower price to take my large partial profit. That price didn’t occur until almost 20 minutes later. Instead the price retraced. Did I take another partial, reducing my risk, so I could stay in the trade longer? No I just instinctively got all out when it made a new 1min high.

I took a few SIM trades and was flat on SIM trades for the day.

So again today was like the rest of the month. I have been taking good setups but mismanaging my trades and still not profitable. If wise, on the AAPL trade, I should have gotten all out at my first partial, after my bad fill, and walked away with a +0.7R. Or at least exited the trade immediately after the bad fill for no loss. Instead I stayed in for a -1.3R loss. Then on BABA I should think of the risk as a vey individual, trade dependent quantity. And took a heavy partial at 2R. Instead of waiting for the inflated 2R based on fixed risk. Thus turned a good +1.5R trade into an OK +0.8R. With only mildly adequate trade management skills this should have been a solid profitable day. Instead I have about a -0.5R day.

Score card (live trades).

AAPL	BABA
84%	92%

 

What I did good today:  Though not well, I was able to handle taking two trades at once, at the open. One long and one short. That was a bit demanding.

What I am grateful from today?  That I am learning from my trades. These trade management rules will take many trades to learn from. But I am learning.

What do I need to improve on:  Must make reducing my risk more automatic reflex. Either a bad fill, trade not going well, or nearing B/E but want to stay in the trade longer, I should just take a few shares off.

Look at each trade’s risk independently.

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Rob C

[IamKarthi 342]

1 hour ago, Rob C said:

I need to break whatever belief I have that I need to stay in the trade and try to be right. I rather just make money.

Golden words!

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 9/23/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning, both with AAPL.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD,and  ROKU on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I liked the daily chart on BABA. Not sure which way it was going to move, but thought it would move. And I liked the PM chart on AAPL and was long bias. BABA again did not get volume at the open. AAPL got volume but gave a red first 1min candle. Even though I saw SPY dropping I was too long bias to take the trade. Then the 2^nd 1min candle engulfed the first in seconds, then pulled back and I went long with a good fill. My target was the 221.51 daily level and my stop was the bottom of the previous candle. The price quickly popped and I got a first partial with small shares. Then price quickly retraced. Since I took a partial I moved my stop up to VWAP and a PM level. I was stopped out by a penny or two for >-0.5R loss, so it does not give me the right to take 3 trades today (one of my rules so I don’t take the 3^rd trade as a revenge trade).

When I was stopped out the volume for BABA arrived and I was waiting for a setup (pull back). While I was waiting AAPL setup again and I went long. Five seconds later BABA setup perfectly. But I have a two trade limit, so I watched BABA drop like a rock and never look back. Would have been a huge stress-less trade. Instead I entered a very stressful trade. The 221.51 target was now too close for AAPL, so I chose the very strong 22.39 level. My stop was LOTD. Which gave an R/R>4. The price retraced and touched my stop twice while I was watching BABA really move without me. Also SPY was dropping and I was really losing faith in the trade. So when the price reached back up to my entry I took a few shares off. Then it popped a few cents and I sold more. Essentially I sold half my shares at B/E to reduce my risk. Then the price moved up to the 221.51 level where I took two partials. Then retraced to stop me out by a couple of cents again. Then it went higher and actually reached my target. That’s OK I didn’t have too many shares left. What hurt is the first S/O and selling half my shares at B/E.

I don’t look at my P/L until the EOM but I instinctively look at each trade and estimate the P/L. Today looks like I am flat. Just like my trading for the last 8 months.

No mood for any SIM trades. I was nervous I was going to FOMO trade and I had to turn off my platform early.

Yep another day that represents the month I have been having. Where I saw the two stocks I am focusing on, both fly big today and I wasn’t on board.

Score card (live trades).

AAPL	AAPL
88%	87%

 

What I did good today:  Well again I recognized and took good setups.

What I am grateful from today?  Walked away before I FOMO traded.

What do I need to improve on:  At the end of the month I will evaluate my S/O strategy after taking one partial profit. Last month I really didn’t have enough data to determine a strategy. Hopefully at the end of this month I will. What I am doing now is not working.

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 9/25/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning.

I took 1 live trade this morning with AAPL and 2 SIM trades with NKE and BABA

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, ROKU and NKE on my 5min ORB watchlist. First time since I went live I did not give AMD a chart.

I had a long bias on both AAPL and BABA. AAPL already made a nice hammer in the PM (on the daily chart) and BABA was bouncing from the big drops recently. As usual the volume arrives on BABA on the 2^nd minute, so my attention at the open was on AAPL. Volume arrived quickly and AAPL made a nice hammer and I went long when it broke the HOPM. My target was the 219.82 and my stop at 218.50 which is also the bottom of the candle. It popped so fast that my first partial profit was correct at the 219.30 daily level. I took another at 219.50 and then I noticed I am at 2R so I took another partial. But I am supposed to take a large partial at 2R and instead I took a small partial because I really thought it was goung to reach my target. The price dropped quickly and I S/O near B/E. Too bad I took only small partials. I assume I only made about +1R.

I really didn’t want to risk another flat day so I switched to SIM and took 2 winning SIM trades. Especially a big winner on BABA. I added the charts below.

A 1min ORBU on NKE

A 2min ORBU on BABA

Score card (live trades).

AAPL

93%

 

What I did good today:  Took good setups and got good entries.

What I am grateful from today?  It’s good to play it safe and walk away green.

What do I need to improve on:  To take a big partial profit at 2R. Especially for the scalp-like trades.