Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[MKINGSBURY 2]

On 8/6/2019 at 11:00 AM, Rob C said:

Yep you were right. I have changed my self analysis part of my journal to a more positive tone.

Awesome! Hope it helps!

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 8/29/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning.

I took 1 live trade with AAPL and 3 SIM trades.

So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and BBY on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Though I had a long bias on AAPL the price was sitting on a couple of levels with no strong level any where near the opening price. So reistance/support level type trade would not be available. Which is good since AAPL has been burning me with those setups this week. So I planned only to take an AAPL trade with a hammer.

A hammer was formed and I went long. The target was the 209 level which was also the PM high and stop was the 208.57 level. I knew, with slide, that my entry would be less than 2 for the R/R, but I was OK with that. I seem to do better if a tech level is closer. The price went in my favor quickly. I did take a lot of partials but the 1^st 3 were small. The 4^th partial was the first substantial one. I got two more partials then the small amount of shares I exited when the price broke VWAP.

I took three SIM trades. One a winner with BBY short. Then two SIM trades with TSLA. First one I was S/O but the second one was a big winner.

 

Score Card (live trade)

AAPL

92%

 

What I did good today:  Traded with out P/L. I won’t look at it until EOM.

What I am grateful from today?  Good trading day, both live and SIM.

What do I need to improve on:  No more P/L. Just focus on the score card.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Friday 8/30/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades with TSLA and 2 SIM trades. It was actually a good trading day though going through lots of emotions.

So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, BIG and DELL on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I had a little bit of a short bias on AAPL and no bias on TSLA. Right after the open both stocks looked like they were setting up for shorts and both triggered my entrance criteria. TSLA reached the criteria first, though a few seconds later AAPL did as well so I have to admit my focus was not entirely on my TSLA trade. TSLA created a tombstone and found support, multiple times at the 228.50 level. The plan was to short on the break of that level. It broke that level 3 seconds before the end of the first minute on OK volume. I shorted with my target the 225.85 daily level and my stop all the way back to VWAP, thus I didn’t take that many shares. I also liked the PM low and the 200MA-1min was not far from my entry. Hopefully these levels would pull the price lower. The price instantly reversed when I got filled and never looked back. I hate when that happens. And I got stopped out as planned just above VWAP. Watching my video I see it only broke my entry level by 5 cents that’s not really enough on TSLA to call it a break.

When it broke VWAP I was considering TSLA for a long. Then I saw a big L2 Ask signal and quickly went long.

The problem was I had to react so quickly I had no time to calculate my share size. Which is surprising since I pride myself on being able to do this very quickly. So I just took the last share size I used, which was for a $1.20 stop. Now I have a 30 cent stop and should have three times the share size. But there was no time for that and for good reason. The instant I got my fill the price flew up fast. My first two partials were small. My third and fourth partial was the same partial. I wanted to take a large 3^rd partial but you never know what type of fill you are going to get. So I watched the bid and split my partials into two in case I get a bad fill on one of them. The fills were fine and I was able to take another partial before the price dropped. Sadly because of the small share size I am still slightly red for the day instead of having a very green day.

 

I took two SIM trades DELL and TSLA. Both big winners

 

Score Card (live trades)

TSLA	TSLA
88%	90%

 

What I did good today:  Actually, I traded well today.

What I am grateful from today?  Finished the month on a good day.

What do I need to improve on:  The poor share size on my TSLA is unusual. Correct share size is usually the one trade management skill that I usually do well. But I will be more alerted to it.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 30, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 8/30/19.

An unusual week. It’s my best week for score card since I have been tracking that with an average of 88.4%. But it was my worse week, for profitability, in 7 months. Which strikes me as very odd. I took 8 live trades this week. One trade was really bad, I was slow entering the trade compounded by a bad fill and as usual I can’t get myself to bail on the trade. Thus I took a -2R. I had only two trades go for a good run. One I was stopped out by 1 cent and missed the run and the other took only 1/3 the appropriate shares. So I only made +2R from winning trades this week. Since I took -5R on the losers it was a bad week, even though my win rate was 50%.

I took quite a few SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) and my SIM trades improved throughout the week.

I did take some non-AAPL trades, this week, with TSLA.

Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open, though still acting more like a scalp with little chance to run. TSLA and MU were marginal last week at the open and will be removed from focus at the open. BABA had a really good week at the open, though this is unusual for BABA.

Here is my plan for this week:

P/L will be closed and not looked at until the end of the month to help focus on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Take heavier partial profits, assume it’s a scalp at the open.

AMD, TSLA, MU and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data.

Keep $30 risk per trade.

You can look at BABA for secondary focus at the open. If there is a really good stock in play it can be made the secondary focus. If I trade BABA I will use small share size until I learn the personality of the stock.

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

 

[Rob C 826]

Live trading summary of the month of August.

So last month was my first positive P/L month since I have been live. My first 3 months live were quite red. My next 5 months were flat. I define flat P/L as the EOM P/L +/- 3R. Then one positive month and now I just finished my first negative month in 7 months at  -5.8R. Both my worse week and second worse week (P/L) occurred this month. With that said, it actually wasn’t a bad month.

My score card for the month was 85.9%, slightly higher than last month. My win rate for the month was 46%, which included one week of only 22% winrate. What is also very interesting is there was not even one trade that I took without a good setup. There were definitely bad trades, one to three a week, but not due to a bad setup. I would say all but one of my poorly scored trades were due to the same thing, how I handled a bad entry.

Half the time a bad entry is not my fault, it was a bad fill. That is OK, if you manage the bad fill correctly. I never did. The simplest way is just get out of the trade as fast as possible. Another way is to take a heavy partial renormalizing the risk. I don’t do either. I wait to be stopped out for much larger than my 1R. Sometimes the bad entry is my fault. I miss the correct entry and took the trade anyway.

I started taking the course (home study version): Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders last month. To place some accountability on myself to finish the course I have been posting my reading notes and assignments online. Please see my link if you are curious about the course. I have finished the first two volumes of the course (there are a total of 5 and they get bigger as you go). When I say finish, I mean reading, taking notes and completed the exercises.

https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/1286-van-tharp-institute-peak-performance-course-for-traders-my-journey-through-the-course/

 

Stats for February/March/April/May/June/July/August:

	February	March	April	May	June	July	August
Total # of live trades	21	34	36	36	38	19	25
Hulk Days	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Max Loss Days	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Broke max trade rule	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Hot Key Mistakes	1	1	0	0	1	2	3
Score card			81%	81%	84.5%	85.8%	85.9%

Note all 6 hotkey mistakes, from the last 3 months, were due to incomplete transition from live to SIM.

SIM trades have gone well this month. I definitely see an improvement. Aiming to go live with some 5/10/15 min ORBs in September.

Goals for September:

1)    Don’t go hulk.

2)    Learn to control your emotions after a loss.

3)    The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month.

4)    Keep risk per trade $30.

5)    Keep improving health.

6)    Keep making SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs

7)    Start taking small live 5/10/15 min ORBs when stats say I am ready.

    Continue with the Van Tharp course for traders.

9)    Work on being able to manage a trade with a bad entry. Either exit or take shares off the trade to re-normalize the risk.

10) Allow a third trade if a previous trade was exited well early for a tactical trade management purpose.

11) Adjust score card for harsh penalties for not managing a trade well after a poor exit.

12) Keep P/L window closed for the whole month of September. Only after the last trading session, on the last day of the month I can look at it. I need to focus on score card only.

 

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 9/03/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and 4 SIM trades. I was originally very disappointed with my trading today. I thought I didn’t follow my plan. But now after seeing the video of my trades, it wasn’t so bad.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU and AMD on my 5min ORB watchlist.

My trading plan for the day:

Since I performed my weekly backtest data collection on Friday and forgot what my conclusions were, I reviewed it this morning. Based on the data my plan for today was watch for AAPL and BABA at the open but only trade with a hammer in the first minute. The strong candle then pull back trades are not working for either stock. Also, do not look at P/L even after the trading session. Try some SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs.

So I thought when I finished today I did just that, took a trade on a strong candle with a pull back. But after revieweing the video, It was a long wick candle, thus there was definitely shares being bought back. Not a hammer but with some reversing price qualities. So the price dropped almost to the PM low reversed and broke the 206.65 level. Then pulled back and held that level and I went long. Not technically breaking my trading plan. My target was the the PM high and the 200MA-1min as my stop. I got a bad fill, but no surprise this close to the open, but the price went against me immediately. On the way down I decided to flip position if I am stopped out. I wish I remember if I was feeling revenge, but I don’t remember. If I don’t remember it couldn’t have been to strong.

Sadly after I flipped the volume finally arrived on BABA but now I am stuck in the AAPL trade and BABA took off without me. My second trade was short on AAPL with the low of PM as my final target, the daily level at 206.93 as my first partial and my stop back at the 200MA-1min. It took two minutes before the price went my way. I took the first partial from nerves and the second at the 205.93 level. I tried to exit at B/E but the price flew through it. I assume I gave probably half my profits back with that slide.

 

What the chart looked like when I took the first trade:

Both trades:

I took 4 SIM trades including a 5min ORB with BABA. Did OK with that ORB, but BABA already had its run by then. My two losing SIM trades I exited before my stop and my two winning SIM trades were solid but not big winners.

Score Card (live trades)

AAPL	AAPL
85%	91%

 

What I did good today:  I re-adjusted my share size on my flip on the AAPL trade since the stop was closer on the flip. I took the correct size and did it fast enough the exit and enter was the same price.

What I am grateful from today?  My 5/10/15min ORB SIM trades are consistently getting better.

What do I need to improve on:  I still feel like I didn’t stick to my plan well. Will need to be more specific with the instructions tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 9/04/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. I couldn’t shake the grogginess out, plus I had stress from forces outside day-trading today. So I decided to trade SIM only.

Looks like I didn’t miss much trading SIM today. AAPL gave me nothing at the open. I did take 1 SIM trade with BABA.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and SBUX on my 5min ORB watchlist. AAPL was not setting up and bounced between PM levels (high and low) for several minutes. Even though the volume was good the price couldn’t break high or low. Then BABA created a huge wicked hammer at 9:34. All the 1min MAs, VWAP and a daily level were all bunched together. The spread tightened as it broke those levels and I went long and got a good fill. I gave it a large stop of 50 cents all the way to the PM low since BABA is so wicky. The PM high was my target though the R/R is less than 2. But I thought it worth the risk since there were no levels above it and it could run.  I quickly took a partial at the HOTD, then waited for 12 minutes for the price to do anything. The price wicked down below VWAP 6 times, but I already know BABA enough to know that’s normal. Finally, the price moved a little bit and I snuck in two partials. Then the volume went from low to none and I got out at B/E.

It was very interesting to watch BABA during that time. SPY had some really big moves and I didn’t see any effect on BABA. Also, more than once I saw really big asks at prices ~10-20 cents above current and they didn’t seem to have any effect on the price as well. But, time and sales had some correlation. I have been really focusing on T/S and seeing very little correlation with AAPL but at least for today I saw the move about 30sec ahead when 4 reasonably large buys at the ask went through. So that was interesting.

 

 

What I did good today:  Knew to trade SIM only today.

What I am grateful from today?  That I traded SIM. Maybe I would have been stupid and tried to trade AAPL live this morning. I would have been seriously chopped up.

What do I need to improve on:  Now that I am having some success trading SIM on 3/5/10 min ORBs, I noticed they are a lot more fun than trading at the open which is traded on nerves and speed.

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 9/05/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Still felt good enough to trade live.

I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA. What was unusual is I took both trades at the same time.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and CIEN on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I only had two levels on my AAPL chart, the 211.85 daily and the HOPM. The price popped above both on high volume. I have not been doing well with opening pull backs or trades without a close target. This trade was both. So I waited. The price fluctuation calmed down and the HOPM was acting as a really good support. So I went long with 213 as the target and the 211.85 daily level as my stop. I took a quick partial then the price started to move 2min later. Then I took 3 partials in rapid succession. I think this was mostly due to being in a second trade with BABA which I will discuss later. This is my first live double trade in 7 months. I have been double trading a lot in SIM and it has been OK. Four minutes after that the price popped again and I took two partials. AAPL went on a big run after my last partial which I missed. I still have a lot to learn on patience.

Almost immediately after I took the AAPL trade, BABA had a really nice setup. I first thought too bad I will miss it. Then I thought I have been managing dual trades on SIM quite well. Actually, I have been managing it a bit better than single because I don’t (can’t) look at every tick. BABA created a really nice hammer. The price found support on the 200MA-1min and 176.58 tech level and bounced to create the hammer. I went long when it broke the 177 daily level. My target was the 177.94 daily level and my stop the 200MA-1min. I entered the trade just before the 1min mark so I can call it a 1min ORB. Price had a slight pull back then started moving up.  My partialing wasn’t much better than my AAPL trade. But nerves from my first dual trade made my bad partialing even worse. Too bad there were some nice levels to take partials on. And I missed the big run on BABA as well.

Score card (live trades):

AAPL	BABA
90%	92%

 

What I did good today:  Two good setups.

What I am grateful from today?  Was able to manage two trades simultaneously.

What do I need to improve on:  The partialing was bad even for me. Either trade, managed correctly, could have been the one trade that made my whole week.

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by Rob C

[Mark D. 435]

Taking two trades at the same time successfully is really tough, excellent work! 

[Rob C 826]

59 minutes ago, Mark D. said:

Taking two trades at the same time successfully is really tough, excellent work! 

Thanks. Luckily they were both long. That helped.

[Rob C 826]

Friday 9/06/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Taking half share size today because it’s Friday.

I took 1 live trades this morning, with BABA.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and LULU on my 5min ORB watchlist. Centerpointe now finally has shares to short for ROKU!! I was quite surprise to see them this morning. I feel much more comfortable having ROKU on my watchlist now.

BABA daily looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. Then BABA had a nice drop 5min before the open. But I still had no bias at the open. APPL was interesting that it had a lot of tech levels above the current price and none below. I also, had no bias. If the price dropped there are no levels to stop it, but if it goes higher there are levels to attract it.

Both stocks were setting up so my attention was split. BABA really respected the PDC in premarket so I was waiting to go short if it broke through it. The price broke through it and I shorted, or so I thought. Since my mind was on long AAPL at the same time and oddly both stocks had approximately the same R value for the trade and similar stock price, I accidentally went long. Except for my issue switching to and from SIM I have not had a hot key mistake in 5 months. But, I was pretty quick to realize it and correct it. There was only 3 seconds from sending the buy order, selling the buy order and sending and executing the short. Sadly, I lost 10 cents on both trades. So I was already 20 cents in the hole.

When setting up the trade I was planning to aim for the 176.50 level as my target and the 179.25 PM level as my stop. But that’s a R/R~8 which is too big and unrealistic. BTW it did reach that target in 4 minutes J So I chose the 177.94 daily level as my target. After the hot key mistake my R/R<2 but since I really like the 176.50 target and I was taking half shares (it’s Friday) I thought the risk was still fine. Again, I did take a lot of partials but kept them small. I still had almost half my shares after 4 partials. Then once I reached 3R I partialled heavily and all out at 177. I don’t look at my P/L anymore, but I can tell even with the hotkey mistake the trade was a +2R or better.

Instead of switching to SIM I rewarded myself, for the one and done, to turn off my platform and help get the kids get ready for school.

Score card (live trade) hotkey mistakes are not included in my score card.

BABA

93%

 

What I did good today:  Traded something besides AAPL. Took a good setup.

What I am grateful from today?  Recovered from hotkey mistake quickly.

What do I need to improve on:  Taking partial profits of course.

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 9/06/19.

My best score card week since I have been tracking it at 90%. It was a short week and one day I only took SIM trades. So I only took 5 live trades this week. I have not looked at my P/L all week. I will look at it at the end of the month.

I took three SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) all were pretty good.

Though my score card was really good and my win% was also good, I am a bit disappointed in my trade management. Both Thursday and Friday were 3 really good trades that I know I made very little profit. I am very poor at taking partial profits and on these two trades on Thursday I ran out of shares and missed most of the run. Either trade could have been the trade that makes your week, but instead they were just small profitable trade. The trade on Friday was an 8R move. I should catch at least 4R of it, even with my poor profit taking. But, with my especially bad profit taking, a hot key mistake and taking half shares due to being Friday I ended up with 1R profit. That’s quite concerning.

I reviewed my trades again for last month, my first negative P/L month in the last 7. And I see three issues. First there were multiple trades with fills so bad I needed to immediately bail on the trade. I didn’t and took 1.5 to 2R S/Os. Next issue is my partialing got worse. I usually take 5 partials on the way to my target. I was trying to decrease it to 4 last month. Instead I increased it to 6. And the final issue was inconsistent risk. Most of my winning trades last month I took half share size. Most of my losing trades I took full share size. I took the half share size due to a new stock I don’t know well or that it is Friday.

I then analyzed my partial profit taking for the last 6 weeks and compared it to the previous 6 weeks:

	June-July	July-August
S/O	29%	37%
Only reach 1st partial	29%	13%
Reach Target	22%	18%

The most notable piece of data is my 1^st partial went from meaningful to useless for profit. The next interesting info is I stop out, without reaching my first partial, 37% of the time. But my win rate is 50%. So where is the 13% discrepancy? I checked this and almost all my trades during that time period, that make to the 1^st partial are losers. I let it go passed the B/E either intentional so I don’t miss the rebound or unintentional l (a large slide).

I did take some non-AAPL trades, this week, with BABA.

Finally, Centerpointe has shares to short for ROKU. Or what they call “easy” to short shares.

Back test data shows AAPL, BABA, MU and AMD all in play at the open. So I have plenty to choose from next week.

Here is my plan for this week:

P/L will be closed and not looked at until the end of the month to help focus on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Take heavier partial profits, assume it’s a scalp at the open.

AMD, BABA and, MU are in play at the open. Choose the secondary focus based on premarket. Watch out for volume on BABA. Don’t take a trade unless you see 100k in one minute.

Keep $30 risk per trade. Even though my score card allows me to increase to $42. I need to keep my risk more constant until I fix my partialling issues.

Create another button with 1/8 share size Sell/Cover to use on 1st partial. The ¼ is too large unless it is a scalp.

Try to exit at B/E after a 1st partial. Don’t look for the rebound.

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 9/09/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning.

I took 1 live trade this morning, with AAPL.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and T on my 5min ORB watchlist.

AAPL daily looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open. The volume immediately arrived for AAPL but not BABA so I was highly focusing on AAPL. AAPL created a nice hammer and I went long the moment the candle was no longer red. I also like a hammer that the bottom is created by a major tech level like this one. The 214.91 daily level was a concern, but I Iike entering a trade, near a tech level, in the first minute. The level seems to draw the price to it. Though you must take a partial there. The 215.18 level is not a serious one. It was somewhat forced because I really needed another level. So my target was 216 and my stop was the LOTD.

The price immediately went against me, but I had a reasonable size stop. Then the price headed up and I took several small partials. I was just about to take my first large partial, near 2R, but the price retraced before it got there. Though I have been thinking of a new procedure of selling/covering half my shares and letting the last bit run until B/E, it is not a rule and I didn’t even think of it. The price made a new 1min low and I exited. Later the price bounced off of VWAP, above my B/E, and rebounded and reached my target of 216. Where it found resistance.

I then took 4 SIM trades. 2 winners and 2 losers. The winners were much larger. I tested the new 1/8 share partial button in SIM.

Score card (live trade):

AAPL

91%

 

What I did good today:  Was careful to watch volume.

What I am grateful from today?  Nerves a little high today, but recovered fine.

What do I need to improve on:  Start using the 1/8 sell/cover button where appropriate. Think seriously of partial exits and let the last bit run.

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by Rob C

[Glenn Budde 356]

Love this trade, thanks for sharing...

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 9/10/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning.

I took 2 live trades this morning, both with AAPL.

So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and F on my 5min ORB watchlist.

The daily charts on both AAPL and BABA looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. I watched AAPL and BABA at the open. The volume immediately arrived for AAPL  and as usual not BABA so I was highly focusing on AAPL. AAPL made a strong solid white candle with volume and was threatening to go red to green. The price didn’t bounce off the PDC but hovered below it. I really liked the strong tech levels 30 cents above it that would pull the price toward it so I went long before the PDC break. My target was the 214.91 daily level and my stop the 200MA-1min. But realistically the 214.45 level was really strong and I knew it could bounce hard from it. But because it was so strong I was confident I would reach it.

So the trade looks good so far but this is where I made the mistake. Today was the first day I have access to a low partial shares button (1/8 shares). I tested on SIM yesterday and today is the first day I could use it live. I guess I was too gung-ho to use it. It was good I used it on my first partial which is taken off of nerves. But my second partial (at the 214.45 level) should be heavy, at least half my shares. But I just instinctively took another 1/8. The price did bounce hard from the level and I stopped out below VWAP. Sadly for a small loss due to my small partial.

The price quickly bounced on volume with an ABCD setup and the same red to green. I went long again with the same target and stop. This time I would partial heavy at the 214.45 level. I did get a small partial in but the price reversed. I then noticed SPY was really dropping so I got out when it broke VWAP for a small loss.

I then took 1 SIM trade. AAPL was setting up for nice short with a reverse hammer and SPY dropping. But by the time I switched to SIM, I thought I was chasing it, which I wasn’t since it fell hard. But, BABA¸ was still setting up. The 1min chart had a really nice ABCD setup and the 5min chart had a 5min ORB setup. I first only shorted half shares since the price was still well below the 1min VWAP and may retrace to there. It did and I shorted with my other half of my shares. Then BABA fell 7R. The 1/8 partials really helped on this trade. On Friday I caught a 8R drop on BABA and only made a painful 1R. Here I made 4R on a 7R move. Much happier. Though I didn’t look at my live trade P/L I need look at my demo account so I could immediate critique my trade. That’s how I know I made 4R.

Score card (live trades):

AAPL	AAPL
89%	93%

 

What I did good today:  Stopped out early and was correct to do so.

What I am grateful from today?  Took a really good SIM trade helping my confidence.

What do I need to improve on:  Now that the newness of the 1/8 sell/cover button is over I can use it more appropriately.