OTC's DT Journal

[OTC 27]

Hi BBT,

New to DT (~90+ days) but have been swing trading for several years. I am excited t o go on this journey!

I would like to welcome everyone to my DT-ing Journal where I will summarize my trades, thought process, ideas/potential trades, psychological state during trades, and overall grade for the day. 

I am here to learn so I would greatly appreciate your feedback (harsh or not, I am here to learn so do not be cordial, LOL - I welcome constructive criticism). 

Thank you in advance for your support and willingness to help. I am excited to be a part of this amazing trading community!

 

DAY – 1 (7.13.2020)

Trades: 6

Symbols: 4

 

Psychology: Planned on not trading, reason #1: did not sleep well and woke up late, reason #2: have several swing trades going. I broke that plan. 

Goal for the day: Manage swing trades, take profits, average down or add shares on PB's according to plan. 

Market: Strong finish on Friday 7/10/20. COVID19 cases at all-times high in many states. Q2 earnings season starts today, will banks will be a major indicator for bullish continuance and overall market sentiment?

WL:

TRADES:

DKNG

Catalyst: Friday, 7.10.20 Doji on daily chart, at the bottom of a daily chart trading range, voluntarily delisting warrants (SPAC) due to low volume (negative news). I have been looking to take a long position for a swing trade at the bottom of the range, last attempt.

Strategy: VWAP break-out

Long bias, opened weak - entry at 9:34 after indecision and hammer testing the 9 EMA, holding VWAP and the 100 SMA. Stop was the loss of 9 and 20 EMA at 100 SMA, secondary plan was if it held 100 SMA to re-enter, failed. Overall plan has been to take this long for a swing trade, however the news of delisting warrants reduced my confidence. This was one last attempt at this ticker. Stopped out at 100 SMA, removed from future WL until scanner shows more volume.

Overall grade = A. Good recognition of weakness, entry was fair, and SL was not adjusted. TM was well executed.

NI – Remove bias in a stock and read the technical.

MRNA

Catalyst: Buy rating upgrade, continuation on strength from Friday, 7.10.20.

Strategy: Break of HOD

Long bias, chatroom call-out. Poor execution of entry, FOMO. Did not wait for a proper PB. Too extended. Stayed in this trade on willingness to hold for swing based on the strength and catalyst. I have been watching and analyzing this ticker, recently sold swing position. Good job of not averaging down on PB to VPOC support (although averaging down would have been acceptable, based on my plan and risk level). If VWAP was lost I would have ‘bailed’. First partial was at R-level, $74.56. Second partial was at $76.00, good job of being patient to partial later rather than sooner on overall strength and L2 orders. Third partial was at new HOD, $76.90 (Good recognition of time of day, common time of day MRNA turns over).

Overall grade = D. Entry was poor (F), partials were good (A), overall TM was a fail with a R:R = 1R. I see the consistent pattern of chasing and entering too extended. My afterhours analysis of this ticker kept me confident to risk/reward. However, I will not be so calm if I start trading 500+ shares of a ticker priced like this, max risk on this trade was 1.8% of total account value whereas my profit take was ½ that amount – too much!

NI – Better entries, stop chasing extended tickers with FOMO. Learn to manage R:R before I blow up account.

VXRT

Catalyst: Buy rating upgrade, $90MM capital raise for COVID19 R&D

Strategy: Break of HOD

Long bias, RVOL high, heavy trading volume, similar strength to MRNA. Did a poor job of assessing entry (common theme), rush in to two entries and bailed - FOMO. E3 was after assessing price action and EMA/SMA tests/retests, etc. E3 was good, first partial was at R-lvl, too many shares, still panicking on partials to avoid going red.  Plan forward – remove profit window and trade for levels and by technical not P/L. Partial 3 was good, at intraday level, ceiling becomes floor. Final partial was at new HOD but I was not at station, set it and forget it (ticker hit HOD = $13.53, my profit take was = $11.90)

Overall grade = B. Too many entry/bail, poor (D). Partials were good (B), overall TM was a C grade due entry/bail however R:R was excellent (13.9R). GREAT add-on at 20 EMA re-test, partials beyond this were (B), held 15% shares to reach $12.00 new HOD.

NI – Better entries, assess price action and technical before entering trade. Establish a R:R strategy such as: 20/30/50% on strong stocks.

SPCE

Catalyst: Strong stock on daily, recently sold off, 

Strategy: Support Hold (after 1st 15-min sell of on trend day)

Long bias, Entry at support level $19.46 after exhaustive volume trend with consolidation, PA tested this support for ~30 (yellow box). P1 at VPOC R-lvl, P2 at floor turns to ceiling intraday level, P3 at some random level (poor take), P4 at new HOD. Held 100 shares and added 200 shares (cum = 300) for swing trade because on daily chart this ticker sold off HARD and has been strong 7+ days.

Overall grade = A. Good trade over all, could have waited a little longer to enter the trade at 100 SMA test, P3 was on panic? poor partial, P4 was slightly early but L2 was iffy.

NI – Better entries, recognize the strength of the market and "trend day" - take larger position to maximize P/L to make week goal, instead of a daily P/L goal.

Final Review:

Goal for Day – FAIL, DT-ed instead of only manage swing positions. Day was GREEN (7X Goal). Am I being to hard on myself since I am new or did I just get lucky? I think its the latter, if MRNA wouldn't have worked out I would have ended RED (-6X Goal or 1.8% of account value).

Things I do well:  Wait to partial at higher Rs, however this is with limited amount of shares, need to work on partialing strategy.

Things I do poorly: Bad entries, chasing FOMO, too extended. TM is poor due to unbalanced R:R

Edited July 16, 2020 by OTC
image out of place, reorg.

[Christopher 129]

What's up and welcome! You'll get a good sense for where you're at after a few solid weeks of trading, looks like you had a good day! Keep it up, I'm around if you wanna chat. I'm about 8 months in to Day Trading, still in SIM, I have a forum post in here entitled "Chris's daily trade talk" where i do video recaps / trade review. Day trading is a blast man, and learning is what it's all about! 

-Chris

 

[OTC 27]

 

DAY – 2 (7.14.2020)

Trades: 6

Symbols: 4 (SPCE, VXRT, NIO, INO)

 

Psychology: Slept well, stayed in bed 30 minutes extra this morning. Ready to trade if opportunity presented itself, confident but cautious (Yesterday was my best DT day thus far, broke goal by 7.3X).

Goal for the day: Manage swing trades – partial at my predetermined targets or reassess a position that is not going according to plan. DT: Trade on continuation COVID19 stocks and see if SPCE was going to make a move.

Market: All sectors green with Energy making a strong move. California announced they are closing restaurants, bars, gyms, place of worship, etc. – another hard shut down. Bank earnings (Q2) started today.

WL:

TRADES:

SPCE

Overall grade = A, winner, 3.5R and 6.3R.

Catalyst: Ticker has been very strong, it sold off the previous two days (Friday and Monday). SPACs in general got good news late yesterday after CB.

Strategy: Bottom Reversal, VWAP Breakout

Had to sell overnight position at a loss so started day in red. Long bias, opened weak - following $SPY. T1: Great entry after exhaustive volume, indecision and hammer with strong daily support. First partial at key daily level. Second partial at VPOC/key daily level combo (solid red line = 4x touches on daily chart). Stopped out at BE on reversal. T2: Re-entry after ceiling becomes floor level was tested 3x, entry a little late (~0.20C), still good entry for VWAP break out. First partial above intraday level (pink), second partial at PDC, third partial at daily level, fourth partial at VP R-level. Held 38% for overnight swing.

Trade Management: Good recognition of early weakness to sell overnight position for small loss. Great entry on VPA. Good partials at key levels. Good job staying with the trade after SL at BE. Good re-entry, overall good trade management.

NI – Recognize a high potential winning trade via daily chart in order to take larger share size and bigger green P/L if it suits your risk tolerance.

 

VXRT

Overall grade = C, winner, 1.4R, 6R and 7.1R

Catalyst: On my overnight WL, continuation from 7.13.20 (+51.88%), received $90MM funding for COVID vaccine R&D, beware of profit taking.

Strategy: Bottom Reversal, Asymmetrical Triangle (AT) Breakout

Long bias, after opening bell profit taking. T1: Entry too early before $1 drop, stop at $14.60 was not triggered, noticed bottoming pattern so kept my position. First profit at VWAP. Consolidation into AT, reduced position as AT started failing – sideways (large yellow box). Recognized $14.32 level holding (6.26.20 HOD), tested 3x, on third added to position. Small partial at VWAP, another small partial at VPOC, partial at $15.27 too early – bad decision. Final partial at large wick/high volume indecision doji (stock could have gone either way after this, see vertical yellow box). T2: re-entry on 20EMA test and strong VP level (also stock did not fall after doji). Partial at new HOD. Partial at another new HOD – VPOC R-level (great patience as L2 was strong, buying). Last partial at new HOD #3. Held 50 shares into after hours ($15.08 avg), added 50 shares at $14.50 (bounced off of 50SMA on 15-min chart), new avg $14.79.

Trade Management: The entry followed by ~$1.00 drop and no SL trigger was poor TM execution, could have been catastrophic, however good recognition of bottom reversal off TFL and 200SMA on 5-min and 2-min chart. Recognition of AT was good, exiting on failed AT was good, good recognition of consolidation, great adds on key level and MA tests. This would have been an A if not for entry and major SL error that ended up good, LUCKY!

NI – Entries are still too soon, let the PA develop until you are certain of entry, use SL – if this continues it could end in blowing up your account.

INO

Overall grade = F, neutral, BE.

Catalyst: COVID19 stock, VXRT is strong thought INO would be strong, it has been quiet. Gapped up

Strategy: 2-min ORB

Long bias, Good entry on 3^rd 2-min candle after ORB had set one green candle, not very strong so got all out with winner, got greedy and tried again on next candle, stock fell and I gave back all profits, finished green, barely. LESSON: confirmation that I have no business trading the opening 15-mins, yet.

Trade Management: Too many entry and bail. Should not be trading the open. Gave back green position to end BE.

NI –   Re-establish rule "stop trading the open" -  not enough experience, platform is too slow - get DAS installed, after going green on extended ticker get out, take your green and stop trading - I was doing this and stopped, how can you re-initiate this ?

NIO

Overall grade = D, neutral, BE.

Catalyst: Continuation, EVs are hot. Early morning sell off.

Strategy: No Strategy (Scalping).

Long bias, poor entry – because I had not reviewed the PA, turns out it was a winner but got stopped out. Re-entry was on 20EMA test – SL too close, got stopped out. Left this ticker alone 12 noon to 3pm. Scalped it to return to BE in the closing bell – entry was on 100SMA test on 2-min chart.

Trade Management: Too many entry and bail. Should not trade a ticker that I have not first reviewed the PA to assess overall trend, MA tests for entry and all-time frames to establish strategy

NI – Stop with the FOMO, someone calls out ticker and I run to take trade or if I am just waiting to take partials on other trades I am 'itching' to jump into a new trade. Go back and read your discipline notes, and remember that over trading leads to red days.

 

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 1) Do not trade the open – FAIL. 2) Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS. 3) Work on better entries, no FOMO – FAIL. 4) Work on adding position at Mas tested – PASS.

Things I do well:  Wait to partial at higher Rs, patience with strong stocks and their consolidation period, adding position on MA tests, bailing on weak candle indicators, TM on R:R.

Things I do poorly: Bad entries, chasing FOMO, trading without assessing PA and all-time frames first.

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by OTC

[Valentin 84]

OTC!! Welcome my man, Journals looking good and your killing it!!

Love the market and sector Analysis on your prep, and love the grading system you have on your overall play -  working on implementing a similar thing. Are you basing this off specific criteria or more of a "feel" kind of thing? 

 

 

 

[OTC 27]

Thanks V,

Your format is awesome, I read your journal posts multiple times per week - thank you for posting them.

The grading system on each trade's overall play is currently feel oriented (I do a lot of mental analysis with verbal and visual repetition), but as I gain experience and establish consistency in journal entries I will develop a baseline criteria and document it.

 

[OTC 27]

6 hours ago, Christopher Patterson said:

What's up and welcome! You'll get a good sense for where you're at after a few solid weeks of trading, looks like you had a good day! Keep it up, I'm around if you wanna chat. I'm about 8 months in to Day Trading, still in SIM, I have a forum post in here entitled "Chris's daily trade talk" where i do video recaps / trade review. Day trading is a blast man, and learning is what it's all about! 

-Chris

 

Thanks Chris, I will check out your daily trade talk - keep it green!

[OTC 27]

DAY – 3 (7.15.2020)

Trades: 8

Symbols: 6 (SPCE, VXRT, BA, BYND, NCLH, PLAY)

Psychology: Slept very well, confident, currently do not have any emotional imbalances – I feel balanced internally and with my externalities. Not trading with fear or greed since I turned off P/L – GAME CHANGER.

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – manage partials as market is quite bullish (IWM swing broke out waited patiently for ~1 month while in negative unrealized position). Day Trades – Look for continuation on VXRT, find 1 or 2 catalysts stocks in pre-market to trade. Work on trading without ‘thinking’ of P/L, do not trade the opening 5-mins (exception 2-min ORB – working on small position entry and partialing strategy).

Market: Earnings season kicked of yesterday, all sectors green with Industrials making the biggest move, Financials also made a strong positive move on bank earnings reports (Q2).

 

WL:

TRADES:

SPCE

Overall grade = B, loser, stopped out (.3C), Potential: swing: 4.4R and DT: 1.7R.

Catalyst: Ticker has been very strong, trending up after selling off past days. SPACs in general got good news as hot 2020 plays.

Strategy: Swing Continuation, Bottom Reversal.

Long bias, opened weak, averaged down at 200 SMA on 5-min chart – too early, poor decision as the exhaustive volume (yellow box) happened one candle before my entry (think oil tanker turning, not speed boat). Decided to set SL at 18.09 (daily support level) and left trade station for another commitment, in hindsight on the strength of this stock and my analysis to take this as a swing trade I should have set an average down order instead of a SL (I did not because I am trying to liquidate positions in TOS to transition to DAS).

Trade Management: Fair recognition of weakness, added (average down) to position too soon, Went against my long-term analysis for swing position on this symbol.

NI – Trust your analysis for swing trade, wait for ‘oil tanker turn, not speed boat turn’, in other words better entry after exhaustive volume (entry hammer occurred at my SL).

 

BYND

Overall grade = B, winner, 1R

Catalyst: Entering Brazil market (3^rd largest meat consumer).

Strategy: Bull Pennant Breakout

Benzinga call-out, long bias – parabolic move was strong, took small shares at top of vertical move on L2 orders in case it went parabolic again, it PB so took P1 on next pop to average down on consolidation. Added to position (average down) at bottom of pennant, SL = 133.70. P1 at first break of pennant, P2 at VPOC R-lvl, P3 (bail) on hanging man candle (before SL).

Trade Management: Good patience on call-out – since late to parabolic move, good recognition of L2 strength as well as potential to PB – took small amount of shares, good recognition of possible pennant or flag form (based on L2 ‘ask’ orders above), Good add at bottom of pennant and important use of tight SL.

NI – More patience on partials, wait to take entry on PB to key intraday level (took early on FOMO), trust L2 more.

BA

Overall grade = C, winner, 1.8R, 1R

Catalyst: $916MM contract extension with NASA, was at the bottom of a daily range (consolidating for 5D).

Strategy: Break of HOD, Scalp - EMA Test with 100 SMA Entry

T1: Long bias, entry on 9 EMA test, P1 at new higher high/higher low, P2 at R-lvl (daily chart), P3 at new HOD. Re-entry on 50 SMA test, failed, stopped out. Noticed L2 and waited for re-entry at 100 SMA test, P1 at 9 EMA, P2 at TFL.  

Trade Management: Good recognition of 9/20 EMA test on PA strength, poor job of waiting for re-entry.

NI – Better entries, still rushing to get in trade (FOMO), Pay more attention to L2 on HOD trades (got negative before turning trade green), consistent pattern of exiting too soon on PB when the L2 orders are there, wait for 100 SMA test (5-min) for add-ons or re-entries – back test shows high success rate in this market.

VXRT

Overall grade = A, winner, 1R, 4R.

Catalyst: Continuation, $90MM funding to advance COVID19 vaccine.

Strategy: 2-min ORB, Bottom Reversal, EMA Test (Short)

T1: Short bias, ORB short during initial morning sell-off (I had been trading this symbol multiple days in a row and was comfortable with early action. Entry on L2 volume and big bid, target $14.30. P1 at PHOD (I had $14.32 as a PHOD). Re-entry for (reversal, long) on VWAP test – low volume test candle, failed stopped out. T2: Long bias, entry PHOD hold, P1 at VWAP, P2 at 9 EMA - was holding for PDC/100SMA on 5-min chart - did not have strength so exited early. T3: Entry at 9 EMA, P1 at TFL, P2 at loss of PHOD ($14.32), stopped out at BE. NOTICE: level PHOD $14.32 was used a lot by MMs in the first 15-mins of trading – spark confusion in direction?

Trade Management: Felt confident about my levels because I had been trading this symbol a lot the last few days, good job of recognizing key levels and reversing my position off of that PHOD ($14.32),

NI – ORB, I feel like I am seeing the earlier entry but don’t take it – this is good because I have more losers than winners in the opening 15-mins, Don’t make it a habit of trading the open, yet.

PLAY

Overall grade = D, loser, 2.8R

Catalyst: Gappers list, premarket show.

Strategy: Break of HOD

T1: Long bias, late entry, FOMO on call-out, was at daily level. Failed to break HOD, stopped out. Tight SL

Trade Management: good job on the tight SL, recognizing low probability since symbol has already made a$1.00 move.

NI – Stop rushing to take trades on call-outs, FOMO - I keep saying this, but I keep doing it (reason for grade = D).

NCLH

Overall grade = D, winner, 2.5R

Catalyst: Share offering, diluting value.

Strategy: ORB Reversal (S/R Rejection)

T1: I asked chatroom for a trade, trading buddy obliged, entry on R-lvl rejection, P1 at 9 EMA, P2 at 20 EMA (intention was VWAP but had to leave for appointment so took P2 early).

Trade Management: Good job of recognizing weakness and R-lvl rejection.

NI – Stop rushing to take trades on call-outs, FOMO. I keep saying this, but I keep doing it (reason for D grade). This was a winner, LUCK? – probably; need to back test.

Final Review:

Goal for Day:

OVERALL GRADE - FAIL

1) Do not trade the open – FAIL.

2) Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS.

3) Work on better entries, no FOMO – FAIL.

4) Only trade the symbols on your WL – FAIL.

5) If you are green on a symbol and take another trade that is red, stop trading that symbol for the day (this is a discipline rule, accomplish this for 1 week at 100% and reassess) - FAIL.

6) 3SYO for 30 mins - FAIL.

Things I did well: Commit to SL, recognize trend changes (such as hanging man) and exit position.   

Things I did poorly: FOLLOW MY OWN RULES, Bad entries - chasing FOMO, trading without assessing PA on all-time frames first. Trading symbols not on my WL, call-outs – haven’t back tested success/failure here but willing to bet I have more losers than winners. Still forcing trades which ultimately reduces green position but more importantly goes against the ability to be disciplined  to take less trades.

Things I did well: I was patient and wait for strategy I was in to develop. Take small positions, wait for confirmation, allow PB and then take larger position for move I was waiting for.

Edited July 17, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

 

DAY – 4 (7.16.2020)

Trades: 8

Symbols: 6 (SPCE, VXRT, BA, NCLH)

Psychology: Slept okay, lacked confidence, planned on not trading until I finished previous day (7.15.20) journaling – that was weighing on me causing stress/anxiety.

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials as market is quite bullish (IWM swing broke out waited patiently for ~1 month while in negative unrealized position). Day Trades – Look for continuation on VXRT and SPCE, find 1 or 2 catalysts stocks in pre-market to trade. Work on trading without ‘thinking’ of P/L, do not trade the opening 5-mins (exception 2-min ORB – working on small position entry if not FULLY sure of trade and partialing strategy).

Market: Earnings season, all but 1 sector red, not surprised since previous 3 days were green. Was today a consolidation day?

WL:

TRADES:

SPCE

Overall grade = C, winner, 1.2R; Potential 3.3R to $21.0 (PHOD).

Catalyst: Ticker has been very strong, trending up after selling off past days. SPACs in general got good news late yesterday after CB.

Strategy: 5-min ORB.

Long bias, Entry on higher low on 5-min chart, P1 at PD intraday lvl (7.13.20).  Re-entry at PHOD, P1 at .10C, stopped out at BE.

Trade Management: Was not confident because it was very extended, and I got stopped out yesterday on my swing (bad psychology on this symbol today). P1 took out entire position instead of partialing and instead of partialing at target level $21.00 (P-ATH). Tried re-entry at $21 but bailed because it was too extended, not confident.

NI – Trust the technical and let the PA play out, do not trade symbol if not ‘feeling’ it, be objective and eliminate prior day bias, let the market tell you what it wants to do.

 

VXRT

Overall grade = B, winner, 1R

Catalyst: Continuation, $90MM funding to advance COVID19 vaccine.

Strategy: 15-min ORB, 5-min ABCD

Long bias, entry at TFL hold ($15.62), did not trust it on PB, bailed – should have added to position and instead went red. Entry #2 on TFL hold confirmation (take smaller position if not sure, then add to position upon confirmation and PB), P1 at 9 EMA on 15-min chart, P2 at position B of ABCD (40%), P3 at B to C consolidation (too many partials during consolidation), re-entry at PB at C position, P1 VP R-lvl, P2 at daily R-lvl, P4 at break-down of ABCD pattern.

Trade Management: Took too many partials during B to C (ABCD) sideways consolidation (yellow box), candle #3 on 15-min chart was a confirmation test candle on relative low volume, it appears that taking such a large position affected my psychology.

NI – Trust your set-up, Took too many partials during B to C (ABCD) sideways consolidation (yellow box),

NCLH

Overall grade = A, winner, 1.8R

Catalyst: Possible continuation on yesterday’s + 20.68% change

Strategy: Bottom Reversal

T1: Long bias, late entry but caught the strongest reversal of the day. P1 at VWAP, P2 at VWAP – good exit recognizing that a new higher low could not break through VWAP, L2 orders were pulled.

Trade Management: Good recognition of bottom reversal, but even better recognition of stock weakness (kept in mind that yesterday the symbol made a +20.68% move up).

NI – ??

BA

Overall grade = Swing

Catalyst: $91MM contract extension with the NASA, strong PB today – profit taking?

Strategy: Pennant/Asymmetrical Triangle BO (yellow box)

Entry in final 15 mins of market, intention to swing but also intention to take some profits, entry at intraday support, P1 at 9 EMA on 5-min chart, P2 at 20 EMA on 5-min chart (sold off all day, weak), reduced position on PB to add in for swing at lowest price possible.

Trade Management: good recognition of weakness all day

NI – ??

Final Review:

Goal for Day:

1) Do not trade the open – PASS

2) Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3) Work on better entries, no FOMO – FAIL

4) Only trade the symbols on your WL – FAIL

5) Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6) On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – FAIL

7) 3SYO – PASS

Things I did well: Recognized weakness in stocks and exited before SL or trend break, did not over trade

Things I did poorly: Take small position, wait for confirmation and then enter with more position on PB’s,

 

 

Edited July 17, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 5 (7.17.2020)

Trades: 5 (1 premarket)

Symbols: 6 (SPCE, VXRT, BA)

Psychology: Slept very well, confidence was good today, mental plan was strong (trade pre-market symbols only), Yesterday’s mental recollection added confidence and reminded me of best mental trading days (enter trades with small portion, upon confirmation of ‘move’, add shares on PB).

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on VXRT, SPCE, and BA. Trade symbols on pre-market WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Market: Earnings season kicked off this week, most sectors green for the day and the week. Week in Review – SPY sold off on Monday and Tuesday’s pre-market, then was in a consistent up trend Tuesday – Friday.

WL:

TRADES:

BA

Overall grade = A, winner, Swing: 2.5R, DT: 2.9R

Catalyst: Wins $91MM contract continuation with NASA, break-out of asymmetrical triangle on daily chart, retiring 747 production (old news revived – affected even though analysts stated it would not).

Strategy: Bottom Reversal

Long bias, Entry late on reversal but on strength to break intraday level ($177.99) and go for VWAP, P1 at 20 EMA on 5-min chart (took all out on this due to tight SL, PB would have stopped me out before going back up to reach VWAP.

Trade Management: Confident of L2 read with strength after reversal on exhaustive volume, very tight SL for quick $-take, symbol was weak on downtrend but caught the biggest reversal of day (I did this on 7.16.20 twice on two weak symbols) – getting better at reading L2 (VPA).

NI – Take larger position on this type of trade where I am confident in the plan and ‘move’ with tight SL – minimal risk. 

Analysis: On 7.15.20 symbol broke out of asymmetrical triangle, on 7.16.20 it PB to converging point, today 50/50 chance on direction, downgrade and news of 747 retirement gave me short bias (especially since pre-market was strong uptrend on block trades).

 

SPCE

Overall grade = B, winner, 5.6R, 5.5R

Catalyst: Overall strength. SPACs hot in 2020, 12/15 days in uptrend (almost parabolic), see daily chart.

Strategy: 5-min ORB, 15-min ABCD

Long bias, E1 was premature, quick stop-out, broken rule! E2 on VWAP break-out, P1 at 30C, P2 on missed target PB, re-entry on PB to trend line/EMAs, P3 at intraday level, P4 at new HOD, added shares on big PB t o VWAP (red box, 1-min chart), added more shares on PB to 200SMA on 1-min chart, P5 at 9 EMA on 1-min, final add after PB/consolidation, P6 at double hanging man candles on 1-min, P7 at new HOD.

Trade Management: Good recognition of new higher lows/higher highs, good recognition of wick-only PBs designed to take out SLs, good job of taking small position, waiting for confirmation of ‘move’ and then adding to position on PBs. Good recognition of level being held (drew intraday lines to mentally confirm ‘hold’, S = $22.79, R = $23.51). Good patience and recognizing of strength of ‘move’, left shares on for two new HODs.

NI – Wait for PB to end for re-entry – still entering too soon on FOMO. Still taking a few premature partials on consolidations. Wait to add to position on PBs, 9 or 20 EMA (yellow box) or even better on 50/100 or 200 SMA.

VXRT

Overall grade = A, break-even, 1.8R, 7.6R

Catalyst: COVID strength stock, stock in play for ~10 days

Strategy: Strength of Level Hold, Bottom Reversal

Long bias, E1 at intraday level that held 3x prior on 5-min, stopped out (the one time the stock dipped). E2 at PDC/TFL, P1 at 10C (premature), P2 at 5-min 9 EMA, P3 at 7.16.20 intraday level.

Trade Management: Good job of ‘set it and forget’ for final partial, still took a premature partial, good entry at PDC/TFl, it was my luck that E1 failed after testing that level 3x prior – good job honoring SL.

NI – Need to recognize opportunities to take larger position on strong stocks during big PBs.

Final Review:

Goal for Day:

1. Do not trade the opening 5-mins – FAIL

2. Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries, no FOMO – BETTER still FAIL

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO - PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Recognized strength in stocks and opportunities to add to position on PBs. Good recognition of weak trend candles (hanging man) to exit high risk positions in order to maximize P/L. Did not over trade.

Things I did poorly: Still taking some entries too early, trading the opening 5-mins on FOMO.

Edited July 18, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 6 (7.20.2020)

Trades: 6

Symbols: 4 (SPCE, INO, MRNA, BA)

Psychology: Slept well, confidence was good today, mental plan was strong today.

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits/average downs according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SPCE and BA. Trade symbols on pre-market WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ and add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes). 

Market: Earnings season ramps up this week, SPY on bullish uptrend and breakout, most sectors were down as well: only tech, consumer discretionary, and communication services were up. Thankfully, these three indexes comprise more than half of the SPY. Last week, there was a massive inflow into the SPY and IWM, totaling slightly more than $8 billion. There was also nearly $2 billion in outflow from the QQQ. This also partially explains the weakness in the XLK and XLC (which are disproportionately represented in the QQQ) and the outperformance of the XLB and XLI.

WL:

Trades:

WKHS

Swing position: added shares on sell-off at $13.63 (LOD = $13.36, closed today at +9.31%, $16.59), averaged down to $15.34. $14.51 establishing as the new support. $TLSA earnings reporting on 7.22.20, will be interesting to see how WKHS does – sympathy play?

MRNA

Overall grade = B, winner, 3.1R

Catalyst: Gap up, good news over weekend about vaccines, COVID stocks in play, continuation from Friday strength.

Strategy: 1-min ORB

Long bias, gapped up overnight, sold off during pre-market. Started making gains to reclaim VWAP last 5 minutes before opening bell, with this strength I took entry after the close of the first 1-min for ORB at daily support level, SL at $88.10 (50SMA 1-min chart), P1 at 50C, P2 at VWAP.

Trade Management: Entry was a little early as first one-minute candle was closing, took entry on PB, hold of S-level ($87.58), and strength to upside, good job of recognizing reversal and weakness at VWAP, orders pulled on L2.

NI – Need to trust my exit more, I exited at 89.70 (slippage), but VWAP was at $90.17. I felt pretty good about it testing VWAP given the strength in the last few minutes of pre-market and opening.

SPCE

Overall grade = B, winner, 2.3R, 6.7R

Catalyst: Overall strength. SPACs hot in 2020, 12/15 days in uptrend (almost parabolic), see daily chart.

Strategy: Bottom Reversal, Double Bottom

Long bias, E1 3.5x exhaustive volume at 9:59am (yellow box) with SL at $22.20, P1 VPOC/R-lvl and then P2 at 20 EMA (both on 5-min chart). Re-entry at PB to hold PD-HOD ($22.2) with SL at $22.06, P1 (50%) at 5-min 9 EMA (low liquidity), P2 (50%) at 1-min 200SMA/TFL ($23.22, P3 at 15-min 100SMA/5-min VPOC R-lvl.

Trade Management: First entry was on exhaustive volume, took all profits expecting PB for re-entry. This worked as planned and I re-entered at a PD-HOD that held ($22.20). I then exercised good patience in partialling at 3 key levels via 5-min or 15-min chart (VWAP, TLF cross with 200 SMA, and PD intraday level). Good recognition of lost strength, took partial before desired partial level #3 on this weakness. Only took one panic partial, small shares. Note: good patience on 1-min chart @10:20am during trouble pushing through 50 SMA.

NI – Stop taking panic partials on mini consolidations of strong moves to the upside (doing this to lock in profits), is this ultimately a bad practice?

INO

Overall grade = B, winner, 4R

Catalyst: COVID strength stock, sympathy play on MRNA and weekend vaccine news.

Strategy: Break of EMA

Long bias, entry at break of 9 EMA for a move to VWAP, P1 (40%) at 20 EMA on 5-min chart, P2 at VPOC/R-lvl on 5-min chart.

Trade Management: Got a bit of a late entry from bottom reversal so took a very tight SL of 2C. I played for quick targets to avoid SL on PB.

NI – Need to recognize the time of day, reversals on vaccine symbols at this time of day illustrate at a 30 min to 1 hr move when they are strong (see back test on this), thiss allows you to stay in the trade longer.

BA

Overall grade = B, winner, 2.8R, Potential: 13R, 5.8R

Catalyst: Downgrade, concerns of overstock of undelivered inventory (737 Dreamliner), uncertainty with 737 Max.

Strategy: Loss of 50 SMA (short), Bottom Reversal, Top Reversal

T1: Short bias for loss of 50 SMA on 5-min chart, P1 (20%) at 9 EMA on 5-min, P2 at 20 EMA on 5-min. Re-entry at VWAP, P1 at daily level ($173.34), P2 at VPOC S-lvl, stopped out at BE.

Trade Management: Got a bit of a late entry from bottom reversal so took a very tight SL of 2C. I played for quick targets to avoid SL on PB. T2:  Long bias (exhaustive volume, indecision and hammer)  - bailed on PB (12:05 candle on 1-min), then it made the move to my max target at VWAP/50SMA on 5-min, this level was tested earlier – TRUST YOUR STRATEGY AND DON”T BAIL!, potential 13R. T3: short bias, HOD reversal, P1 at 9EMA/trendline on 5-min chart, P2 at 10C from previous partial as move started failing. Stopped out at BE at daily level $175.73.

NI – Stop taking premature partials, do not bail on move to lock in small P/L (missed potential 13R). Do not have long or short bias, let market tell you direction – I had short bias based on SA and other news.

Final Review:

Goal for Day:

1. Do not trade the opening 5-mins – FAIL

2. Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO - PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management, #1 might be time to re-assess this goal as I am testing and having consistent profitability andd confidence on 1-min and 2-min ORBs.

Things I did well: Recognized strength in stocks and opportunities to add to position on PBs. Good recognition of weak trend candles (hanging man) to exit high risk positions in order to maximize P/L. Did not over trade. PASS on all my daily goals.

Things I did poorly: Still taking some entries too early, trading the opening 5-mins on FOMO, still taking some panic partials during mini consolidations on strong moves upward.  

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 7 (7.21.2020)

Trades: 6

Symbols: 4 (SPCE, INO, MRNA, BA)

Psychology: Slept excellent, confidence up, mental plan – ready to go.

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SPCE and BA. Trade symbols on pre-market WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PBs. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Market: Earnings season ramps up this week, SPY sold off at closing, Energy sector was very strong, +4.48%, sector 'switch' occurred today. Last week ~$8B dollars went into the SPY and IWM and ~$2B was taken out of QQQ.

WL:

SWING TRADES:

BBBY

Sold remainder of position, +6.07% on the day and +9.5% overall. Entry at $7.74, final exit at $9.49. It may move further up the range to $10.50 or higher but over the last week it was struggling to get above $9.60 resistance level.

IWM:

Sold half of remaining shares today, initial entry at ~$142 on 6.17.20. Took 1^st partial at $174.69 daily level on 7.15.20. I had to hold this stock for ~1M before taking any profits. First partial lowered my average share price to under $137.0. Took 2^nd partial today at $148.99 daily level. Notice: it has broken above the 200 SMA, following a trendline drawn back in early June. Holding 25% of position for the break of $150. Last week there was ~$8B inflow into the SPY and IWM with an outflow totaling ~$2B coming out of QQQ. https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool

IBM:

Entered swing position on $5 dollar sell-off. Earnings were yesterday after market CB, made an $8 move higher, did not sell-off overnight. Today was a profit taking day.

 

DAY TRADES:

MRNA

Overall grade = B, winner, 3.8R

Catalyst: Significant gains yesterday due to COVID results, looking for profit taking today.

Strategy: 2-min ORB

Short bias, opening 1-min candle tested $81.82 level – strong rejection, broke below VWAP to show weakness. Second 1-min candle opened lower than first. Entry on rejection of VWAP (20C slippage on fill), P1 set ahead of big order at $80.15 support level ($80). P1 was supposed to be 50% took out 100%, tried to renter with tighter SL and got stopped out on reversal.

Trade Management: Entry where I wanted it but got in late on slippage, first partial was intended to be 50%, got 100% out – pay better attention to executions.

NI – I was very happy with this trade; re-entry could have been earlier (no hesitation) to catch the wick down – this comment is nit-picky and easy to say in hindsight. I am currently working on my 2-min ORBs so faster recognition of move, enter trade with small shares, and enter more shares on confirmation PB.

 

BA

Overall grade = D, winner, potential: 1.9R, 5.6R

Catalyst: Overstock of 747 Dreamliner, &#& Max still grounded – anomaly. Stock trading bullish large ‘option’ calls.

Strategy: 5-min ORB, Top Reversal

T1: Long bias, first entry was after holding higher low after 1^st 5-min candle, panicked and bailed on intraday level at $179.57. Re-entry on 15-min ORB (its obvious I am more comfortable with these) at $180.22 after holding daily level ($180.04), P1 at daily R-lvl/trend line (purple line, see daily chart also).

T2: Short bias, several attempts (broke rule! 3SYO), entry at break and hold of R-lvl ($181.22), P1 at 9 EMA on 5-min, P2 at 20 EMA on 5-min. R-entry after PB and loss of VWAP, P1 at 100 SMA on 5-min.

The R:R is deceiving because the R:R for trade #1, 1^st entry was 2R but it was on 600 shares on $180/share symbol. Trade #1, 2^nd entry was on 50 shares only.

Trade Management: Good recognition of 15-min ORB after bailing on 5-min ORB. Both partials on T2 were too soon – still not letting move develop, trust your daily levels and 5-min chart for profit takes.

NI – Be patient and let trade develop, both short trades should have been 1 trade, not 2. Still need to work on ORBs, finding a level, trusting it and recognizing large wicks in your favor.

SPCE

Overall grade = C, winner, 2.6R

Catalyst: Space travel and SPACs on fire. C-Suite improvements, commercialization strength.

Strategy: 15-min ORB/ABCD

Long bias, noticed move late so scalped the 1^st candle on buying strength/momentum – 20C scalp. Entry at S-lvl hold with SL set for that level ($24.6), P1 at 10C, P2 at 20C, P3 at intraday level ($25.89). Re-entry at break of HOD, move failed, stopped out with no loss.

Trade Management: Good recognition of ABCD, poor job of entering, profit taking and adding at position C (did not add), took all out at B.

NI – Stay with move longer, you know this stock is strong and has been making ABCDs almost everyday. Missed a 11.9R trade, stay with your WL symbols that have given you great P/L and you have confidence in trading.

Final Review:

Goal for Day:

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – FAIL

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO - FAIL

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Getting better at trading shorts. Did well on reversing position. Getting better with first 5-min and ORBs.

Things I did poorly: Still taking some ‘panic’ partials. I did not stay with trades long enough, let the move develop – missed a potential 12R. Not particularly a good trading day and managed to finish 2.5X my P/L goal, promising!!

[Ray 4]

Excellent analysis OTC! I really like your Psychology section I will add it to my chronicles. Your entry & exit on IBM was stellar. Typically I don't trade stocks into earnings, however, I may have taken this trade if I was watching IBM. 

In the Goal of the day above - what do you mean by? "3SYO"

[OTC 27]

3 strikes your out - if I try entering a trade and stop out 3 times in a row I have to leave the symbol alone for 30 mins, preferably 1 hr.

[OTC 27]

DAY – 8 (7.22.2020)

Trades: 9

Symbols: 5 (DT: AMD, BA, SPCE, JPM; Swing: IBM)

Psychology: Slept okay – got up later to mitigate this, my normal 6:30 am wake-up felt ‘off’ so I slept 1 more hour – good decision. I did not allow breaking my routine to affect me (traded symbols I know). Confidence up, mental plan – good.

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SPCE and BA without bias. Trade symbols on ‘favorites’ WL only. Find 1 or 2 symbols during pre-market to possibly trade. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Market: Earnings season – TSLA reported after the CB, positive – did not affect other EVs. SPY was bullish. Energy was weak after yesterday’s ~4% rally, Technology and Healthcare rallied after negative gains yesterday (AMD was on fire, +8.40%. MRNA: a quiet +2.92%).

WL:

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

Entered swing position on yesterday’s $5 dollar sell-off. Sold 60% of shares on $2 dollar rally, still holding some shares the break of $130. Argus Research upgraded from hold to buy, target price = $155. First upgrade/downgrade since 4.21.20

DAY TRADES:

SPCE

Overall grade = B, winner, 2.3R, Potential: 7.9R, Actual: 4.6R  

Catalyst: Significant gains yesterday due to COVID results, looking for profit taking today.

Strategy: 1-min ORB/ABCD, 5-min ORB/ABCD

Long bias, entry at daily level ($24.6), P1 of 33% at TFL ($24.9), added 50 shares on PB, average still below 50 SMA on 5-min chart, P2 of 20% daily level, P3 of 42% after PB taken at same daily level, added 50 shares at C position of ABCD on PB (average price now at VWAP), P4 of 100% at daily level, all out. Re-entry for 5-min ABCD, entry at VWAP (average price still below key daily level), P1 of 25% at intraday level (1-min chart), P2 of 33% a t intraday level, P4 at 5-min VPOC, P5 was a stop-out at $25.08 intraday level on PB testing 50 SMA on 5-min. It continued to my final target on $26 without me.

Trade Management: Entries and adds were well thought out at key levels being held and keep average price below VWAP and 50 SMA. Still had a couple of premature partials during mini consolidations.

NI – If you ‘knew’ the 50 SMA was a strong support during the move, should have re-entered after stop-out – pay attention to MA hold and re-enter on confirmation of move. It came all the way back down to $24.6 a level you chose on first entry as strong support (green line).

 

 

AMD

Overall grade = B, winner, 6.5R, 3.8R, 4.9R

Catalyst: AMD on fire today, Hedge Fund money pushing it up.

Strategy: Break for HOD, Bull Pennant, Top Reversal

T1: Long bias, Entry on PB to VPOC S-lvl test, P1 of 100% at new HOD. T2: Long bias, entry on indecision candle on low volume at 12:08 on 2-min chart (purple box), P1 of 40% at VPOC on 5-min chart, P2 stopped out at BE. T3: Short bias, for mid after noon sell-off. Entry at top 5-min chart VPOC, P1 at 20C drop, P2 stopped out at BE – AMD too strong to sell-off today!

Trade Management: Beak of HOD trade, need to be more patient and let move develop, especially with the strength of AMD today, larger SL. Pennant trade, having been working on this set-up, entry was good, got best partial available but these are tough, after a parabolic move most stocks consolidation (distribution phase).

NI: Overall good, but need to recognize strength lead by MMs and ‘BIG’ money and ride their coat tail on days like today.

JPM

Overall grade = A, winner, potential: 9.2R

Catalyst: Strength on earnings report.

Strategy: Climactic Reversal

Long bias, noticed sell-off until noon. Caught exit upward of climactic reversal but bailed due to low volume and lack of momentum. I passed on a potential 9.2R trade – THESE ARE PERFECT SET IT AND FORGET IT

Trade Management: No issues, I chose to bail, watching grass grow.

NI – Stay with move longer, perfect opportunity to ‘set it and forget it’. Especially on symbol I am familiar with and love trading. A symbol I have no problems taking on a swing if it drops – assuming I don’t use a SL. Missed a potential 9.2R

BA

Overall grade = B, winner, 5.5R, 2.8R

Catalyst: Delays on deliveries, 747 funeral, 737 Max grounding. Big money must be holding this symbol up.

Strategy: Climactic Reversal, Short Scalp

T1: Long bias, entry at 200 SMA on 1-min/100 SMA on 2-min (well confirmed entry), SL= $179.40. P1 of 75% at VWAP/daily level (180.04), P2 at VPOC on 15-min chart. T2: Short bias, entry on red to green candle (1-min 12:20 candle), P1 of 100% at 5-min pivot point ($179.02).

Trade Management: Although the reversal failed I got a good partial and recognized the weakness to exit the trade with max P/L. Trade 2, pay attention to ‘reversing’ position opportunity.

NI – Stay with move longer, see opportunities to reverse position for more P/L.

Final Review:

 

Goal for Day: 8/8 - PASS

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial on swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) - PASS

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Getting better at trading shorts. Did well on reversing position. Getting better with first 5-min and ORBs. Pass all my goals, first 100% in a while. Good job of not entering any trades on call-out FOMO.

Things I did poorly: Still taking some ‘panic’ partials, some were related to lack of momentum/low volume. Still taking panic bail-outs during ORBs, lacking confidence in move and confirmation of move (larger position should occur on the confirmation). Did not take advantage of set it and forget it trade – JPM (9.2R)

 

[OTC 27]

DAY – 9 (7.23.2020)

Trades: 4

Symbols: 3; 3 (DT: BA, SPCE, JPM; Swing: IBM, IWM, WKHS)

Psychology: Slept okay – got up later to mitigate this, my normal 6:30 am wake-up felt ‘off’ so I slept 1 more hour – good decision. I did not allow breaking my routine to affect me (traded symbols I know). Confidence up, mental plan – good (intentionally same as 7.22.20).

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SPCE, AMD and BA without bias. Trade symbols on ‘Favorites’ WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Market: Earnings season continues (reporting: TWTR, T, INTC, AAL, and LUV), Weekly job claims reported today – did not affect the market. SPY sold off for 3 hours, much needed (IMO) after 3-4 bullish days. All sectors red except for Consumer Defensive (+0.48%). Watch for a big bounce tomorrow to the upside!

WL:

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

No change, still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

BA

Picked up a few shares at an average price of $176.21. Catalyst: American Airlines (AAL) to take delivery 737 Max fleet, US Exim bank approves its first big aircraft-related deals in five years, including a guarantee on a  $459M  facility for receivables owed to engine maker General Electric by Boeing under a new Cares Act authorization. The bank also is supporting a deal for $498M in Boeing jets being acquired by Turkish Airlines.

IWM

Sold remainder of position at pre-set limit order (target price = $150), HOD was $150.20 on wick turned shooting star. Total profit on trade was 2.5X goal.

WKHS

Sold 33% of position at undesired price in order to drop my average price below $15, previous average was $15.34. It has sold off from its high of $23 but held the $14.5 level quite well, big money is defending that level (every time tested volume spikes 2X during intraday trading to defend the level, see black dashed line).

 

DAY TRADES:

SPCE

Overall grade = A, winner, 9.2R, 2.1R, 0.3R (Potential: 3.3R)

Catalyst: Space travel sector is hot, C-suite improvement, commercialization upcoming.

Strategy: 5-min ORB/ABCD (2), Parabolic Reversal

T1: Long bias, entry after first 5-min candle held VWAP and a previous HOD ($26.32), P1 of 30C at B position of ABCD, P2 at same as P1 on another push, added shares on PB and hold of previous HOD level, P3 at daily level ($26.95) in front of big ask, P4 at next daily level/HOD ($27.47). Re-entry on PB to hold 20 EMA (2^nd ABCD pattern), P1 at daily level ($27.47). T2: Entry on 200 SMA test and hold, P1 at 20 EMA on 5-min chart, stopped out at loss of S-lvl ($26.95), Re-entered at PDC – SPY started selling off, I was ‘stuck’, I averaged down multiple times to an accumulation of 1000 shares (still within risk tolerance). I averaged down at key levels and in the end came out a winner trade – very proud of the TM and psychology efforts during this trade – boosts my confidence. Additionally, I would have been okay holding this trade over night or longer-term swing.

Trade Management: Overall, very good. T1: Good recognition of levels held (MAs or supports), good job of taking small positions and waiting for confirmation of move before loading up position – unfortunately on 2^nd ABCD pattern I missed the opportunity to ‘load up’ and had small position for profit level. T2: Good job of managing average down, did not panic – got out 0.3R on good TM and sound psychology.

NI – If you ‘knew’ the EMA was a strong support during the move, should have re-entered with full position instead of small position and wait for confirmation – practice and experience will change this. Still need to trust the move more by watching all 4 charts and VPA.

JPM

Overall grade = A+, winner, 7.4R

Catalyst: Strength on earnings report, on my Favorites WL.

Strategy: Climactic Reversal

Long bias, tried to enter twice (3SYO rule was now in effect), make the last entry count. Entry was $98.20. First entry on $98.11 was better and help (panic bail), P1 of 50% at VWAP/9 EMA on 15-min, P2 of 33% at 50 SMA on 5-min, P3 of 50% at PDC, P4 at max goal (daily level, 5X previous touches).

Trade Management: No issues, I was in the zone on this trade a la Mark Douglas.

NI – Humble brag, nothing to improve. This trade was as good as it gets. Nit-picking: not bailing on my first entry, maybe not taking 50% of on first partial – hard to say, its nice to lock in profits.

BA

Overall grade = D, loser, Potential: 8.8R

Catalyst: Delays on deliveries, 747 funeral, 737 Max grounding. Big money must be holding this symbol up.

Strategy: Asymmetrical Triangle

T1: Long bias, took a couple off scalp-type entries for VWAP hold and break of EMAs – small winner, bad trade. Recognized triangle, entry was at the bottom of the triangle (risky), VWAP SL just in case, stopped out.

Trade Management: Was good, knowing I was entering early kept the SL tight, should have stayed with it, bottom reversal came off of previous day intraday level, missed potential 4.2R trade.

NI – Stay with move longer, flipping back and forth between symbols doesn’t allow you to see a good set-up ---- be patient!

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 8/9 - FAIL

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) - FAIL (3/4 trades)

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management.

Things I did well: Getting better executing better entries and stopping out when entry is not great (bottom reversals), excellent TM on ‘stuck’ trade – averaged down well. ABCD patterns are becoming my go-to trade – building confidence.

Things I did poorly: Still taking panic bail-outs during ORBs, lacking confidence in move and confirmation of move (larger position should occur on the confirmation) – improving. Still not staying with some moves long enough -BA set up nicely and clicked to next symbol too soon, exercise patience.

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by OTC