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JaradBBT

Jarad's Premarket Notes

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6 minutes ago, Garnet Olson said:

Hi Jarad, Appreciate the work! I thought the Volume by Price chart (bar chart to right of candle price chart) is a representative of the distribution chart; usually mean distribution has a single peak, but these always show two peaks. Can you comment on why this is? Thanks!

 

How to Calculate Value Area (VA) 

  1. Determine the total volume traded in the profile (total buys and sells). 2
  2. Take the number of total buys and sells and multiply it by .7 to determine what number is 70 percent of the total buys and sells. (70% is a typical example however any percentage can be used by the trader).
  3. Start at the POC (The row in the profile with the greatest total volume) and record its total volume number. The POC will be the first profile row added to the Value Area.
  4. Now look at the two rows above the POC (the initial value area) and add the total volume of both.
  5. Now look at the two rows beneath the POC (the initial value area) and add the total volume of both.
  6. Determine which of the total volume numbers is larger and add it to the total volume number of the POC found in step 3.
  7. Repeat steps 4 and 5 adding the larger of the two numbers to the Value Area.
  8. Once the total volume of your Value Area matches or slightly surpasses the number found in step 2, the Value Area has been determined.
  9. The highest row within the Value Area will be your Value Area High (VAH) and the lowest row within the Value Area will be your Value Area Low (VAL).

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Monday - August 03, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES closed strong last Friday into the close after selling off and reversing. Opening 3272 Sunday night. Pulling back to VA High 3250, we're starting the morning and the month higher well above the VA Range and hitting a high of 3286. Typically the Main Thesis is that price wants to revert to the Range above/below; however, given the amount of volume sitting slightly above the VA High, we can see a slight pullback and rally to build more value into a new area OR an all-out rally to exceed much higher from the beginning.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.12696b5dcd81d864bbb3b66286afbda9.png

 

/NQ had an interesting dip and complete reversal into the VA Range and returning back to roughly 10900. We opened 10933.25 and are seeing as lightly rally higher this morning; however, we have a known strong resistance at 11000 where we've seeing major pullbacks in the past month. I'd be watching the reaction at the resistance to see if other major products can continue higher or if a similar reaction occurs.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d4f7a3b37f1b2eafe17e6b323994829b.png

 

/RTY seemed weaker on the reversal Friday and into the close, not able to recover the opening highs around 1490. Opening Sunday night 1479.2, we're coming into both Friday highs and VA High 1490, so some expectation of resistance is expected.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.b5858a1d32e5cd93e76e3d6606f0e1d6.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Natural Gas up over 6.5%, strong to break above 2.0. Levels 1.62 and 2.1 strong range, recently found support at 1.62 Yearly Support level.

Volatility up slightly 1%, waiting for more information.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Technology up 1.2%, carried by major tech names continuation from Friday.

Weak Sectors: None, but watching Financials with Bonds ($TLT) selling off slightly and a strong $SPY.

Things to Watch:

Banks if bonds get a selloff, hoping we have some correlation with a strong overall market.

$UNG - Natural Gas play

$ADT - Google to buy a 6.6% stake in ADT in home security push

Big Tech - Carrying the markets higher, but also watching QQQ against 269.67 double top resistance.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Tuesday - August 04, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES moved slightly higher on Monday's session and hit a high of 3297 before seeing a large drop back to Sunday open prices. We're sitting within a volume pocket, so expectation is to test the VA High 3260 from above after failing to go much higher outside of the range.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.b46a76ebd5d4611f701d44b628ae3564.png

 

/NQ saw lots of consolidation at previous highs near 11000/11100 before hitting a high of 11092 and falling back through the volume pocket. We still have some of the volume pocket to fill to retest VA High 10900.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.7505ca1d8cd33c0692725ea65760cbd0.png

 

/RTY had a stronger session higher on Monday, hitting a high of 1510 in aftermarket session before returning to test the VA High 1492. We're at a point where we can rally higher from here, but a return well into the VA Range would lead to the V POC 1480 as our next target.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d7584e95fff39d732c9e9c232b9549b9.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Natural Gas started up 1.2% after a strong day yesterday (falling back to 2.1 support at time of writing), may level off near prior resistance 2.162. $KOLD and $BOIL vehicles to trade, along with $UNG.

VIX up slightly 1%, holding 24 area consistently.

Bonds bid slightly higher, US Dollar Index $DXY appears to have found a temporary bottom around 93.

 

Oil down 1.8% on weak earnings, continues to have trouble breaking above 41 area from gap fill in March.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Home Builders and Real Estate up slightly, they continue to be up sectors when overall market is weak across the board. Also watching Financials with a tightening range in recent sessions.

Weak Sectors: Most sectors starting lower, larger pullbacks on Technology and BioTech after yesterday strength. May need more information if they continue to be weak and other sectors are rotated into.

Things to Watch:

Natural Gas is volatile in early sessions, so $UNG and $KOLD/$BOIL.

$MSFT lots of volume and weakest of big tech names.

 

Edited by JaradBBT
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Wednesday - August 05, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES continues to grind higher, well past the VA High 3260 and breaking to new recent highs overall. Note the volume has been declining in the past few sessions, so while we're in 'Alternate Thesis' mode where an unexpected move higher into a new range can lead to further price exploration and range expansion, we are in dangerous territory for a big move back down through the Volume Profile and into the high volume node around 3290.

I also marked 3337 above from prior to the February crash; this was a breakout area that acted as resistance initially. Keep this as a possible target if we extend higher on a breakout short squeeze rally.

10D 30M Chart

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/NQ remains well above VA High 10900 area, with a high volume node around 11050 as an initial support zone. Also declining volume on prior sessions. Interesting, not as extended as the /ES, leading us to explore other sectors or areas that are driving the strength in that product.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.6228199048596cee89fb2ee2bf1bc19b.png

 

/RTY above VA High 1495, extended into a prior resistance area 1540 from a few months ago. No major volume nodes below, so expect some resistance into 1540 and a steep pullback if rejected with VA High as the first target.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.de7590a3740796999e74c6db51c410f8.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver up ~3.5%, continues to rally strongly along with Gold up 1.5%, very strong Materials/Metals Sectors.

image.thumb.png.d3b2853cd7c6e0d714e62f591a48c8ed.png

Crude up ~3.5%, leading to a very strong Energy sector along with recent Natural Gas strength, up .5%. Breaking above 41 and moving away may lead to our short squeeze thesis as it has acted as major resistance for multiple months.

image.thumb.png.89500b654ce8060198a0b1c71e3ff914.png

Volatility down 1.5%, also falling hard with a strong S&P Index. Extremes in multiple areas, so remain diligent in the case where we find a bottom and rip higher.

image.thumb.png.79801b9f88c6cad33b05c9e85f964d1e.png

Dollar Index falling back  to support 92.5, I expect this to hold as it is a major support area and we are extended from a steep decline from 100.

Bonds down, $TLT rejecting 172 resistance from prior volatility in March.

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Energy and Financials, with Energy leading the charge. Also Home Builders up 1.6% and Metals up 1%.

Weak Sectors: None, but Technology notably only up slightly, not the sector in charge.

Things to Watch:

Financials and Energy, looking for best candidates for all-day trends.

$AAPL - Rejecting 443 twice in recent sessions, may offer good short.

$SPY/$QQQ - Active!

Edited by JaradBBT

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Friday - August 07, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES has shown the 'Alternate Thesis' where we have moved well past the VA High 3285 and continued squeezing higher, leading to a rally and shorts covering. I marked 3337 as a possible target is this scenario, which we have achieved, so by normal conditions, we'd expect a slight pullback after achieving this target from 'afar'. However, because we're in this mode, we will continue to observe signs of continuation higher and more upside until we at least lose relevant areas like the high volume node around 3200.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.7da0f03f2408988bd1352872c9eec407.png

 

 

/NQ also remains above the VA High 11020, finding support in yesterday's session at the prior highs and rallying away into 11280 for a strong trending session. Alternate Thesis states we may continue to see upside, but we are in a low volume area with support down at 11100. Be careful of low volume pockets below around 11500.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.08f4b22e60763305e6b99c63a0749c4d.png

 

/RTY remains well above VA High around 1505 and building value around 1540. Because of the consolidation, we may see the VA Range move higher in the following sessions. Similar to the other markets, we remain in Alternate Thesis mode where we can continue higher, but a loss of this area around 1530 should lead to a steep decline through the volume pocket and back to the VA High area.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.1672a9896734d3d945760aada1cdbd10.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver had a steep pullback, but is remaining strong up 1%.

Volatility up 1.6%, with the VIX elevated to 3%.

Natural Gas also strong up 1.3%.

Crude finding some buying volume near 41 support.

Bonds flat. Dollar index support at 92.50 tested twice.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Normal strong sectors on daily if we bounce, but most sectors opening slightly lower, so no standouts.

Weak Sectors: Home Builders/Real Estate down over 1%, along with Financials down .5%. Waiting to see how markets react overall and if we get a reversal.

Things to Watch:

$RKT - New IPO with high volume and good price action, strong in premarket.

$SPY/$QQQ - We're strong overall, but moves such as these tend to end in exhaustion and a sharp decline. We can either squeeze higher (should be quick with shorts covering) or fall quickly (longs and hedging kicking in to bring us back to value).

Edited by JaradBBT
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Tuesday - August 11, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES continues to be in 'Alternate Thesis' where we have moved well past the VA High now higher at 3320 and continuing to squeeze higher, leading to a rally and shorts covering. I marked 3337 as a possible target is this scenario, which we have achieved, broke through, and retested as support on yesterday's session. We have good volume support below near 3350, so we would need to lose or gap below this area to consider VA High as a target below; the current thoughts are we will continue to go higher until we have a clear reversal signal/day.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.704b6c6edd30fff13d9c25c9b288a600.png

 

 

/NQ has moved the VA Range into the current range, testing the VA High 11275 highs on Friday before falling back into V POC around 11050 at the time. Yesterday we did try to lose the marked support, yet we closed slightly above and moved higher until this Premarket session, where we quickly fell right back to this area. Larger structure is showing weakness in this area, as rotation is occuring in the overall markets.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.ed8e57a960b85ffedc38cd38c5fe403d.png

 

/RTY is moving strongly off of a test of 1540 support and current VA High. Alternate Thesis is in play; however, volume structure below is less supportive if a resistance and selloff were to occur. We will look for continuation into an extended move and into long-term resistances or a sign of reversal for a larger move back to VA High.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.daba02bbb6c0bf6d18ea1c9966fc2a27.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Crude and Natural Gas up around 1.5%. Crude retesting 41 last week and rallying to retest 43.50 recent highs, Natural gas breaking above a range area and holding above 2.15 recent highs to reverse a major downtrend over the past years.

Metals down with Silver down almost 7% and Gold down 3.5%.

Volatility down 3.5%, continues to decrease as market grinds higher.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Financials with bonds lower ($TLT big drop) and Energy with strong Crude and Natural Gas. Sector Rotation into these beaten-down sectors. Industrials strong with airliners.

Weak Sectors: Technology overbought and being sold off and Metals similar strong run with a larger pullback today.

Things to Watch:

$BA and airliners.

Financial and Energy names like $C, $JPM, and $OXY weak with overall Energy strong.

Weak Tech names like $AAPL having trouble moving outside of tight range 440/455.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Thursday - August 13, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES has been steadily building value in the upper range of recent sessions such that the 10D 30M Volume Profile has moved; currently, the recent highs are now the new VA High 3380. Due to the fact we are in the VA Range and have touched the VA High, our Main Thesis is a pullback to test the V POC 3320, around the lows of Tuesday's session. If we break above VA High, we will begin a new round of 'Alternate Thesis' where we should return to the range, but may continue higher and causing additional trending days.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.25ce8352f5d114828a8d00e01cfca295.png

 

/NQ has remained inside the new VA Range 10875 to 11180, consolidating around V POC 11100 and currently testing VA High. A break above the range will target recent highs around 11280, or conservatively 11250 with a higher volume node as a target. Otherwise, we'll look to return to V POC on a pullback.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.678e2140df715658d219af186ee94fbf.png

 

/RTY has a wide VA Range with numerous volume 'pockets' below; ideally staying near V POC 1585 can lead to moves higher to recent highs and VA High 1605; however, we're currently below and have some risk to reject V POC for moves lower to different volume nodes (1560, 1540, and VA Low 1500).

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.a14c01dac669418566cab1318a67d281.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Silver up 2.5% after a large selloff Tuesday and bounce around 23.50, target 27.50 on bounce as it provided support during the rally.

Watching Gold, but currently tight consolidation  and trying to hold 1920 area after a similar bounce as silver.

Watching Natural Gas, Gas Report out at 10:30 ET

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Technology and BioTech up after strong days yesterday, continuation may occur and hold up QQQ

Weak Sectors: Financials down again after starting strong yesterday and selling off most of the day. Other sectors starting slightly lower.

Things to Watch:

SECTOR ROTATION - Keeps occurring where usually One/Two sectors are strong while One/Two are weak. Usually a back and forth between Technology, Financials/Energy, and Health Care With Financials earlier this week, Technology and Health Care yesterday, and now we'll see which one matters or if they all are range-bound, leading to a choppy market.

Watching: $AAPL, $RVLV, $SRNE, $FAT (Low Float)

Secondary: $SLV, Natural Gas after Gas Report at 10:30 ET

Edited by JaradBBT
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Tuesday - August 25, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES has reached new ATHs yesterday and is clearly breaking out into new territory. From a Volume Profile perspective, we would expect there to be low Volume Nodes in this range; this can be seen with the VA High 3390 far below and yesterday's tight range forming our first are of support around 3420. We can clear volume pockets below us, so we will be aware that the trend is on 'shaky ground' until the VA Range can move higher; any signs of a selloff will likely be quick through these voids is volume.

10D 30M Chart

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/NQ above the VA Range, shows signs of weakness yesterday, selling off quickly in the morning session to Friday's morning range around 11550 before getting bid higher into the afternoon. Currently the pre-market is having difficulty moving higher compared to /ES, so I'd be watching this for continued weakness paired with Sector Rotation concepts. VA High 11450 would be our first main target risking yesterday's high.

10D 30M Chart

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/RTY showing that 1608 and 1540 were indeed resistance/support for our Range Definition. We are sitting right at the V POC 1580, but our main structure is showing relative strength with our minor downtrend breaking out into the premarket. A healthy pullback near VA Low 1560 or above near 1570 prior neckline of past three sessions would be a nice area to consider building a position for a retest of 1605 recent highs.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.d7163d8bd31ea86e36c7057ed5995b75.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Crude and Natural Gas up around .75%, Crude has been 'choppy' in recent sessions, staying tight between 41.5 and 43.5, but we had a strong reaction last Friday session off of 41.5 and we're moving strongly into the open and into 43. Natural Gas remains strong after breaking away from 2.15 and retesting 2.1 on 8/12. Since that range breakout, we haven't looked back.

Bonds down with $TLT gapping down 1% and confirming a Bear Flag pattern on the daily.

Gold and Silver seem to be moving on low volume, so we may see a breakout in some direction soon, but lack of interest at this time.

Dollar Index held our Yearly Low 92.5 well and appears to be slowly climbing back up. Anything between 92 and 94 would be trapped between Horizontal Support and Trend Line Resistance on higher time frames.

 

Liking Energy to have Relative Strength, Financials strong with Bond weakness.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Financials and Industrials gaining strength in Premarket. Also Energy getting stronger with Oil showing lots of strength in the Futures. Materials and Cons. Staples at ATH.

Weak Sectors: Technology flat, so relatively weak compared to other areas.

Things to Watch:

$BA - Major breakout yesterday into a gap up, continuation to test the 190 range highs.

$AAPL - Volatile and may drag the $QQQ down if it loses 500, $SPY will react as well having trouble getting off the ground unless all sectors align.

$OXY/$SLB - Decent Energy candidates, focused on Oil names.

Edited by JaradBBT
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Wednesday - August 26, 2020

 

Futures Watch

/ES continues to remain pegged in this area around 3440/3450 from yesterday's premarket. Price action from yesterday shows that 3430 is willing to be defended, as we pushed into that area and fully recovered once we couldn't go lower. Any action above the current range could lead to another Alternate Thesis move higher, but a second attempt to break yesterday's range may place us into the 3415 volume node for a while to consolidate.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.0395366e6086ff76cb5228e1ce90d998.png

 

/NQ building value near 11600 area during yesterday's session, leading to the VA Range coming higher as the Equilibrium Price is shifting higher. We continue to stay above the VA High 11580 and can continue higher given we have good support below us.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.5fc89a2291a4dad0227800d3037e85ec.png

 

/RTY fell away from V POC and into the VA Low in yesterday's session, with a slight recovery into the afternoon. As we are in the VA Range and below the V POC, I'd be looking for VA Low 1560 to hold as support for an attempt back to retest VA HIgh 1585.

10D 30M Chart

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Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Natural Gas up 1.5%, back into 2.55 resistance tested multiple times over past few days. A breakout may be led by a sharp rally higher, so watching for breakout or another rejection.

Other futures not showing much in terms of price and areas of interest.

Bonds slightly down, Crude slightly down from 43.5 resistance, Gold seems weak losing 1925 area of support after slipping over multiple days from the 2025 highs.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Technology starting strong with some earnings beats and most major names up roughly 1%. Semiconductors are also holding up some strength. Cons. Disc. showing strength and on the verge of an ATH breakout.

Weak Sectors: Utilities losing all of Monday's price action along with Energy and Financials never getting off the ground. Industials holding up a potential Cup and Handle on the Daily, but need to clear 78.50.

Things to Watch:

Yesterday, strong sectors like Financials and Industrials were sold off and rotated into Technology and Communications, so be wary of another occurrence of a 'bait-and-switch' on strong turning weak and vice versa.

$CRM: Earnings

$SRNE: Oversold Bounce (Morning Star Pattern on Daily) into Gap Up

$TSLA: Remains Strong

Edited by JaradBBT
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Friday - August 28, 2020

 

Index Futures Watch

/ES remains strong, having broken out of 3450 on Wednesday and rallying strongly in a Trend Day. Yesterday session was volatile and well-defined in various ranges, with the daily range between 3500 and 3465. We have the 3500 area to consider today, as potential resistance even though we've explored prices above in Premarket. Anything above yesterday's range will continue the trend and bring us farther into an extended move away from the VA Range (not in play due to how far away it currently lies). A drop leads to more volatile action, given we don't have enough value to support.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.9f2ba882a5897eaf7b5df0bb76638805.png

 

/NQ had similar price action, with a strong Trend Day on Wednesday and a volatile Range Day  yesterday; however we continue to make higher highs/higher lows. The VA High sits right at the ATH yesterday of 12040 and we are at V POC 11940; a loss of yesterday's low will bring us into a volume pocket back to 11650 area of support, but if we break above yesterday's high, a similar move to Wednesday's breakout can occur.

10D 30M Chart

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/RTY shows a disconnect from the other two indexes, having a weak session Wednesday and a wide Range Day yesterday. We are right at VA HIgh 1580 and slightly above yesterday's high, so we will look to higher time frames to see that we're trying to 'break out' above 1590 recent pivot high. If we do, a strong rally back to recent 1605 highs can occur quickly through low volume resistance above.

10D 30M Chart

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Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Futures:

Volatility up 1.4%, we're seeing volatility get bought yesterday even during periods of uptrending markets. Professionals are starting to hedge at these elevated levels.

Silver up 1.7%, still trying to hold up after the large drop earlier this month, currently breaking higher from a retracement with roughly 28 as support.

Gold up 1.5%, breaking higher after 1925 area holding multiple times as support in this week's sessions. This was previous ATH before the huge breakout last month.

Other products up slightly, watching bonds after a huge drop on $TLT yesterday around the Fed speech updates. This is also seen with a weak Dollar $DXY currently at 92.5 support.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Strong Sectors: Interesting correlation, most sectors are up around .3-.7%. Bonds selling off yesterday led to Financials being strong, so seeing how they respond today.

Weak Sectors: None this morning, just normal 'Underperforming' Sectors overall YTD.

Things to Watch:

Watchlist: Cruises, Financials (Weak Bonds yesterday), $NIO.

Secondary: $TSLA (Split Next Week)

Edited by JaradBBT
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Monday - August 31, 2020

 

Index Futures Watch

/ES opened Sunday night at 3508.5 and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 3524.5. We remain well above the VA Range and VA High 3467. Above I have marked a longer-term trendline with range expansion occurring over multiple years; I expect this to hold as resistance over the next week for at least a short-term pullback into normal price targets, such as 3400 support and 3380 V POC.

10D 30M Chart

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5Y 1D Chart

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/NQ opened Sunday night at 12002.75 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 12091.75. The VA range is wide, with  our V POC 11965 sitting within grasp. We would need to lose this area for a volume pocket to open below us, leading to roughly 11830 Support from 08/27 Thursday's session and 17000 as our target if we fall through (08/24 Session High and area of volume). We are well above our main trendline on longer timeframes and can be overdue for a larger pullback on market weakness.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.bcb43043155d06d25ba8ce6955f1bbff.png

1Y 1D Chart

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/RTY opened Sunday night at 1576.9 and and has rallied higher, giving us a aftermarket high of 1589.8. We're pulling back right to VA High 1578, with a healthy short-term uptrend after breakout out of last week's retracement. Our short-term target remains the recent high around 1605 and 1610 previous support turned resistance before the crash.

10D 30M Chart

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1Y 1D Chart

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Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Markets:

Natural Gas down 3%, a lovely extension into a gap fill on the daily and pulling back. Market remains strong and simply needs a pullback.

Dollar Index $DXY hanging right at support 92 area, continues to remain very weak with a shallow bounce at support on prior weeks.

Bonds down slightly, watching $TLT for a bounce play into an extended selloff last Thursday.

Crude up .7%, remains tightly range bound between 41.5 and 43.5, but building higher lows and attempting to break out of the range on a confirmation breakout or fail and breakdown.

Silver up 1.5% vs Gold flat, getting above 28.5 in Silver would be a nice confirmation that this tightening range from 24/30 is trying to continue higher after a large consolidation.

Volatility Futures up slightly, with the $VIX elevated 7.7%; we continue to see larger market participants starting to buy volatility and possible risk in the markets coming up soon.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Volume light this morning, so false readings are possible. Using Daily Charts for general ideas.

$XBI BioTech nice support forming at prior breakout area, slight gap up and possible confirmation of retracement breakout.

$XHB Home Builders strong uptrend, slight pullback last week into gap up and possible next leg higher.

$XLB Materials ATH remains strong.

$XLC ATH, gap up may just be misprint, but strong extension last week.

$XLE Energy Trying to hold prior support around 36 and break out of larger retracement pullback from 39.50 bounce.

$XLF Financials at 200 SMA on Daily, rejecting in PM.

$XLI Industrials, trying to break out of smaller Handle and extend into higher ranges, currently rejecting in PM.

$XLK Technology, remains strong overall, but may be too extended to continue holding markets higher.

$XLP Cons. Staples, ATH, strong uptrend.

$XLRE Trying to clear recent 36.8 highs, higher lows formed into tightening ranges.

$XLU Weak overall, trying to hold 58.50 support area from early July and last week lows.

$XLV ATH, having trouble extending well above current range, choppy action.

$XLY Cons. Disc. Strong uptrend, remains elevated and continuing higher.

$XME Metals holding support and trying to clear 25 area which is major resistance from last year multiple tests.

 

Things to Watch:

$AAPL/$TSLA - Stock Split insanity.

$NIO/$WKHS - High volume volatile names in EV/ICE Replacement sector

Volatility Products - Elevated VIX and Market can be primed for a large drop.

Edited by JaradBBT
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great piece!   IMHO bounce in $TLT happens when  $TYX breaks down the 1.2-1.3 yield support level , then TLT will shoot.  

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Wednesday - September 09, 2020

 

Index Futures Watch

/ES is beginning to show potential for bottoming, as we have moved outside our VA Low around 3380  and are gapping slightly above yesterday's low, which was near the low of the session. We expect some movement back into the VA Range, with 3500 as our V POC and high-end target for a bounce.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.ea198bfb01e36b2a0bfc87c561dc496a.png

 

/NQ extended further below the VA Low 11555 and saw a potential low of 10935 on yesterday's AM session. Out short term target for a bounce is the VA Low, which coincides with recent lower highs before yesterday's selloff. We're seeing a larger gap up in the current PM session, which may lead to a larger move higher.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.a4430ee03a040f0d35c76676f2336fe2.png 

 

/RTY looks overall similar to /NQ, with more volume placed at V POC 1565 and less 'peaks' of volume near the VA High/Low. Short-term target is VA Low 1535 and 1550 recent lower highs.

10D 30M Chart

image.thumb.png.c99f5bdf3b982a8b6271ae1b034ccb28.png

 

Premarket Review at 9:00 ET

Interesting Markets:

Natural Gas up 3%, strong off the PM lows at 2.34 and possible trend continuation.

Crude Oil up 1.7% finding some support around 36 and sitting at 37.5, may be a small bounce attempt on a larger selloff.

Volatility and $VIX down 3.5% roughly, market bounce and possible reduction in downside hedging may lead to volatility reduction throughout the session.

Dollar Index appears to have found a V bottom support around 91.75, starting to clear recent lower highs, but dollar weakness can lead to market strength.

 

Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET

Things to Watch:

$OSTK (Strong Tech and 'Risk On' Day can lead to more volatile names moving 'faster' than others). $SPCE (Good volume and Gap Up, trying to get over yesterday's high and BIG Engulfing pattern last two days).

$AAPL, $TSLA, and mostly Tech Sector for larger bounces.

Edited by JaradBBT
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