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Zack Zarr

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Posts posted by Zack Zarr

  1. Posted

    Quote

    NEW FORMAT

    Weekly trade setups and analysis will be posted in this new format. As always, your feedback is highly appreciated.

    TRADE IDEA

    AUDUSD LONG

    • Buying Range* : 0.69 - 0.704
    • Stop loss Area: 10-20 pips below 0.68
    • Target Profit:
    1. TP1: 0.72
    2. TP2: 0.74
    3. TP3: 0.76

    CHART

    Below is the current chart with the daily chart of AUDUSD. The prediction of price movement, buying range* and SL range are shown on the chart. My first buy is already in.

    AUDUSD-1D-TradeIdea-Dec3018.thumb.png.7dd9cef5dc3696d17f5b613e99111c28.png

     

    ANALYSIS

    The two charts below show:

    • Top: Positioning of the large specs vs small specs based on the COT-Legacy reports of Dec 18, 2018. 
    • bottom: Positioning of the Asset Managers vs. Leveraged Money in the TFF reports of Dec 18, 2018.

    Note: the Dec 26, 2018 reports are missing due to government shutdown in case you were wondering. 

    Legacy Reports

    AUDUSD-1D-Legacy-Dec3018.thumb.png.0866053ecb0e2c4d793d3eb26c2c3eec.png

     

    Legacy report: The major action of the large specs has been profit taking on their shorts foe the past 2 months. Over this period, large specs used every drop in the price to take profit on their short position resulting in 50K reduction in shorts from 99K shorts in Oct 9 to 53K shorts on Dec 18th (See below).

    I also made a pitchfork visible on this chart which I think could become significant if the price starts heading up.

    AUDUSD-1D-Legacy-Dec3018-Table.png.5165e0e6d11550467fc21b085aa8d181.png

     

    Interestingly, the large speculators have not started adding to their longs. The pullback from the recent largest short position is now at 53% which is the lowest over the past year. The only difference is that a year ago from now in early December, long positions where still as high as 90K longs vs. the current 18K amount. Yes, not much room to decrease in my opinion. 

     

    TFF Reports

    AUDUSD-1D-TFF-Dec3018.thumb.png.d25bec08a77e9a2ec29870a431099a98.png

     

    TFF Report: Similar to the legacy reports, both sections of the TFF report have been decreasing their shorts positions over the past 2 months. Asset managers took 25K shorts off their books while leveraged money decreased their shorts by 35K. The Lev Money is the bigger of the two, so their behavior resembles the large specs in the legacy report. As opposed to the Lev Money, Asset Managers have also started adding to their longs for almost 7 months now. Starting from only a 3K long positions in May 2018, they are now at 14K which is a over 4-fold increase. Of course, the sizing of their position is relatively smaller, i.e. insignificant compared to those of Lev Money. But, still something to pay attention to.

    There is one factor which is oddly against the bullish case herein the data. And that is the sudden drop in short positions of the Sell Side (Dealers) showing up as a jump in the overall long exposure of Dealers. It could be simply expiration of some contracts. But the lack of data from Dec 26th makes it hard to draw any conclusion. Something to have in mind for the coming weekly data.

    AUDUSD-1D-TFF-Dec3018-Table.png.c986a445ed92e7ca6aca4dd446208c87.png

    Summary: The overall activity and positioning of the large traders in the COT reports suggest the preparation for some up movement in AUD. The already low long exposure and continuous drop in the shorts could be the beginning of this move. However, we could potentially wait form another week or two to see the actual long build up to make a more certain decision. No prediction is for certain! Only a game of probabilities.

     

    *Note: buying in range means spreading buy orders into a full position (depending on your account size).

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

    Your feedback is highly appreciated as always, and helps us make these posts more effective.

  2. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of October 16th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.a023cb65ab46d771ead8df5536f4df69.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.7ac3655e3faa1f5bf0f82bf515510905.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.937192814c7933b43011d84c8d5b7439.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  3. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on October 16th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

    More trade updates will come in the following post.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.e404fa3f95b6d466087630cbf889fd81.PNG

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    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  4. Posted

    Results of the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.b98e27337d365a86a0090495dd4256a2.PNG

     

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.fd1696de8c467ce5dfc4c2a55d1b1bab.PNG

    Slide3.thumb.PNG.d19cd244dcee3462e8cd0a608f895996.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.ac60a4a315a2d824a404b90056c28fc3.PNG

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  5. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of October 9th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.148d6eb41285b89af1d3517fe6d1102e.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.8cbc2d9c4860824c504f6ed3b8c7f9be.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.1bb7a06449aa6043d833194889114c21.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  6. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on October 9th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

     More trade updates will come in the following post.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.c1ea0e70fe63d7ef6fcee567a9b1137f.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.6ea04e9faf427ddbb78c58146e6ea6ac.PNG

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    Slide13.thumb.PNG.8a188fa779e1e72f32bccec3d1cda95a.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  7. Posted

    Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.7140a43e955ccdc9eb4d2307e8f85824.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.05e291853f535f07ed073339719e31cc.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.4b2d3e2d9e3658458ea4de50c9b4ffb6.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  8. Posted

    Hi Luis, Daily charts are the most common time frame I trade based on. Once I find a working pitchfork, I keep it as guild line  while still using the supply and demand and COT data to build the case for my trades. You can see the weekly trade ideas in the forex forum. I try to use all the data available to make decisions, and please keep in mind I trade for longer terms, days, weeks, and up to month some times.

    Please let me know if you have further questions. Some of the basics of my trading style are outlined in the e-book available on Amazon, link below:

    https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Forex-Currency-Markets-Understanding/dp/1980450722/

    Thanks,

    Zack

  9. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of October 2nd, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.1e0584f1cb8461133e3c82638964bf12.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.7917da3a6e0af040536451caf383f2a7.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.f00e2ad7af6dba4d412612198f95a371.PNG

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  10. Posted

    Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.f3549e876edeb304333dbfb32eee4ba0.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.9747188cf8ef794dadf2d887d3798341.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.652b3bcba0677135754228a2b5a54694.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  11. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on October 2nd, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

     More trade updates will come in the following post.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.3beafe538f5e3c9d1d5e1de7d431bd16.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.068cabad1284badb6d6785f5084515eb.PNG

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    Slide13.thumb.PNG.a015c4d93c635bf5395a28290f5dc0c7.PNG

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  12. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 25th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.3159c4ae9139f8e90d5dcb642172a4f9.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.2212a91a3e156290760f5c78d8217fc7.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.c6ec87777c407634f82257ca58b0bdc9.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  13. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on September 25th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

     More trade updates will come in the following post.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.d9d0d72c5e0090a1f83399c868063390.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.94bfb312d72ad3ca9a150fc9868f7a18.PNG

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    Slide13.thumb.PNG.552b609a06c2050e92081dbb9994e0cb.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  14. Posted

    Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.2691534fd6c0ce238f07acd1a869f653.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.86af8af62cf74902dcc7b9d6b5d33f59.PNG

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    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  15. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 18th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.07711b2f3018426bc159c1b108bdebf6.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.59b28b0dc2886d14a7d2729b62ad069d.PNG

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    Slide7.thumb.PNG.b59d866a60a6143b7ee4006590f567e7.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  16. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on September 18th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

    More trade updates will come in the following post.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.aa5579e463250a5c9f679b1823d87008.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.55cf1bca487ce354e74d569ea8bcf6f6.PNG

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    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  17. Posted

    Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.2f59f766c071ec78051d88f8492abbd7.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.f6fa8e7e135f092a819af81ab38ba869.PNG

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    Slide6.thumb.PNG.a88d2da7f3486dd885b8ac44aa5b7067.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  18. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on September 11th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

    Trade ideas based on these analysis are posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.9cffd835167d3e9f736f3dfe72afd1f4.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.8234e4f8c17f643c961fa1a3fcab17c8.PNG

    Slide3.thumb.PNG.315124900e0cbf4d7225ca082d1df751.PNG

    Slide4.thumb.PNG.e975db01ccc586aa3e33ee1a3b44e2af.PNG

    Slide5.thumb.PNG.fb872e3d3eca052eccfd2e9fb3204728.PNG

    Slide6.thumb.PNG.215360b9cdd31c4069b7e8d7bc1df0c3.PNG

    Slide7.thumb.PNG.f4147972589f08c20cc96729cb0e9e3d.PNG

    Slide8.thumb.PNG.d14469d55f44de9b5fcd48781ca3434c.PNG

    Slide9.thumb.PNG.670af3a2fc1bbbcf79d93e6b3e7e011d.PNG

    Slide10.thumb.PNG.96808dc81fdd7cd404f9c34ef1530208.PNG

    Slide11.thumb.PNG.efd1877c380c2c50daeea115f39e9b5c.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  19. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September11th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.9a7d6c5d25de336ad7c63c97dbb3757f.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.6be1667c4c6e603916a3eb39930748fa.PNG

    Slide3.thumb.PNG.d9fa5cda68f6d6e62ee69839a502e276.PNG

    Slide4.thumb.PNG.2aa9be8668b315acd64922aee9c506d5.PNG

    Slide5.thumb.PNG.d26c7515e8a657ad78f089efe41129ea.PNG

    Slide6.thumb.PNG.373e14aed1f55bded5e38cac0c9a2fe4.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  20. Posted

    Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on September 11th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. 

    More trade updates will come in the following post.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.9cffd835167d3e9f736f3dfe72afd1f4.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.8234e4f8c17f643c961fa1a3fcab17c8.PNG

    Slide3.thumb.PNG.315124900e0cbf4d7225ca082d1df751.PNG

    Slide4.thumb.PNG.e975db01ccc586aa3e33ee1a3b44e2af.PNG

    Slide5.thumb.PNG.fb872e3d3eca052eccfd2e9fb3204728.PNG

    Slide6.thumb.PNG.215360b9cdd31c4069b7e8d7bc1df0c3.PNG

    Slide7.thumb.PNG.f4147972589f08c20cc96729cb0e9e3d.PNG

    Slide8.thumb.PNG.d14469d55f44de9b5fcd48781ca3434c.PNG

    Slide9.thumb.PNG.670af3a2fc1bbbcf79d93e6b3e7e011d.PNG

    Slide10.thumb.PNG.96808dc81fdd7cd404f9c34ef1530208.PNG

    Slide11.thumb.PNG.efd1877c380c2c50daeea115f39e9b5c.PNG

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  21. Posted

    Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    AUDUSD

    Long idea:  not triggered

    Short idea: short running at +15pips

    image.thumb.png.4ad1b065b8fadc4891312bedc1330bc0.png

    EURUSD

    Long idea:  3 partial longs running at +226, +97 & +69 pips

    Short idea: partial short closed at BE; partial short running at +96 pips

    image.thumb.png.37ce458217168272b0aae741953f5d82.png

    GBPUSD

    Long idea: 2 partial longs running at +328 & +279 pips

    Short idea: short running at +61 pips

    image.thumb.png.f3704bb3b6825276110b6b87a80d4849.png

    Gold

    Long idea: 2 partial longs running at +390 & +616 pips

    Short idea: Partial running at +1747 pips with SL BE

    image.thumb.png.36881672443e26e0f975626e853da095.png

    USDCHF

    Long idea:  long running at +10 pips

    Short idea: partial short running at +78 pips

    image.thumb.png.3dbe204ea18861d538a4ac5ec927904e.png

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  22. Posted

    More EURO shorts were closed this week increasing the net longs. Similar happened to GBP, short profit taking in the past week.

    NZD long exposure increased by 4% this week. Lots of activity in AUD but the net remained unchanged.

    USDCHF longs are being closed for the second week.

    Lots of Oil longs were closed this week.

    Gold has seen some short closing activity this past week too that takes it off the record exposures we have seen over the past 10 years.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.7fb3ea80e945b387c0fa79d7bfcdc346.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.59f023e0424320a4a4113ae7e6e82ddd.PNGSlide3.thumb.PNG.efba4c9f8693e3b622e192e5c8ebe68d.PNG

    Slide4.thumb.PNG.6476f4fecb7f60c69d27427e58f23d2e.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

     

     

  23. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 4th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.a9d0410be76e17d36735f9ebdd7f12f6.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.9c5eab04277d70d38dc1371d535516ab.PNG

    Slide3.thumb.PNG.7e1af4d0ec012d6f39a54acebc1b044c.PNG

    Slide4.thumb.PNG.0b343bf973b2f23af4c9f79b756ea63e.PNG

    Slide5.thumb.PNG.bdbf7d6a876c799d7a96d6c6c3273ed6.PNG

    Slide6.thumb.PNG.6cdc50e757569d7afe0424b02410f368.PNG

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

  24. Posted

    Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here

    AUDUSD

    Long idea:  exited long at BE; Stopped (2nd long) at -47 pips

    Short idea: not triggered

    image.thumb.png.ae06924e2453b885598d58f9b089572e.png

     

    EURUSD

    Long idea:  Partial exit at + 94 pips; 3 partial longs running with BE SL

    Short idea: Partial exit at +176 and +118 pips; partial running with BE SL

    image.thumb.png.0a70689b2d2a92c3af8e34173a7e843f.png

     

    GBPUSD

    Long idea: Long partially running with + 176 pips; Long with + 130 pips running; Long stopped at -45 pips

    Short idea: Stopped out -35 pips

    image.thumb.png.4bb0ec9b738f1967655c31f3dfa0e637.png

     

    Gold

    Long idea:  Partial running at +1152 pips; long running +663 with BE SL

    Short idea: Partial exit at +2150 pips; Partial running at +1545 pips with SL BE

    image.thumb.png.829c906ca8b1495a24efa7a03c7a06c9.png

     

    USDCHF

    Long idea:  Not triggered

    Short idea: partial exit at +89 pips; partial running at +45 pips with BE SL

    image.thumb.png.de6a1aacea66f4638e354a7e24651505.png

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page.

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

     

  25. Posted

    Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 4th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here.

    Slide1.thumb.PNG.a9d0410be76e17d36735f9ebdd7f12f6.PNG

    Slide2.thumb.PNG.9c5eab04277d70d38dc1371d535516ab.PNG

    Slide3.thumb.PNG.7e1af4d0ec012d6f39a54acebc1b044c.PNG

    Slide4.thumb.PNG.0b343bf973b2f23af4c9f79b756ea63e.PNG

    Slide5.thumb.PNG.bdbf7d6a876c799d7a96d6c6c3273ed6.PNG

    Slide6.thumb.PNG.6cdc50e757569d7afe0424b02410f368.PNG

     

    For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.

     

    If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]

     

    Zack

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