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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/19/2019 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Hello Everyone, I just finished three months of live trading this past Friday, and about two weeks before finishing I came to the realization that something had to change if I was going to make it through the learning curve. After reading “Trading in Zone” and watching Mark Douglas’s “How to Think Like a Professional Trader” on YouTube, I decided I would create a 20-trade sample set to work on three areas of my trading. (1) Thinking in probabilities (2) Discipline to not give into FOMO (3) Holding my winners longer I figured since this is basically testing out a theory presented in one of the recommended Psychology books, I would make the results public so everyone in the community can see it. The desired outcomes I am looking for at the end of the sample set are: (1) Getting away from thinking trade to trade, and start thinking in a series of trades (2) Taming FOMO, so I do not get over excited and enter a trade too early (3) Confirm my profit taking plan is profitable over a series of trades. All of my indicators, confirmations, and risk analysis that defines my edge is based on information obtained in Andrew’s book and the lifetime Webinars. Edge Defined Strategy: 15 Min ORB – I chose this strategy specifically to force myself to deal with FOMO each and every day. I will caution that my edge does not appear every day, so there will be days that I do not take a trade. While tracking 5 Min ORBs and 15 Min ORBs for the last three months (total of 165 Stocks), I was surprised to see that 15 Min ORBs that meet my criteria appear more frequently than 5 Min ORBs. The percentage of them working is almost the same. 5 Minute ORB Pullback Met Parameters - 52 of 164 Total trades within parameters that have worked - 41 of 52 (78%) 15 Minute ORB Pullback Met Parameters - 55 of 165 Total trades within parameters that have worked - 41 of 55 (74%) Stocks for Watchlist: I select up to three stocks to watch based on the following criteria % Change – Gapped at least 2% but not more than 10% Catalyst – Needs to have fundamental news of sort. Vol – >100,000 Float – High or Medium float (> 50 m) ATR - .50 to 2.00 Trading – Must be trading higher than normal volume Exchange – I prefer Nasdaq over NYSE Edge Criteria: I have three parts risk analysis, indicators, and confirmations Risk Analysis: 1:2 or Greater Indicators: Must meet 2 of 3 Trades within the ATR Small share size with high volume Has a direction upward or downward (higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows) Confirmations: Must meet 3 of 4 ORBO closes above VWAP/ORBD closes below VWAP No large wicks/candles (wick cannot be larger than body, candles body not larger than ½ ATR) Closes near VWAP (needs to be within $.30) Has a pullback prior to breaking the opening range (cannot go past planned stop) Profit Taking Plan: As I am with CMEG, I have found you have to be very selective on when to take profits otherwise you are giving the money you make back in commissions, so I developed strict criteria for taking profits. Plan A – 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1 (this allows me to be at break-even if the stock moves back to my entry point), all out at profit target (+/- $.03) Plan B – 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1, 1/2 at profit target, all out at technical level or my first out Plan C – 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1, 1/2 out near the profit target if stock stalls near it, all out at the profit target or my first out. Share Size: I am taking share size based on a fixed dollar amount. Thanks to KyleK29 & fjmocke for the hotkey setup. Daily Trading Goal: My daily trading goal is to trade only within my edge, stick to my profit taking plan, control my emotions, and be disciplined. If I meet these then it is a green day regardless of what my P/L says.
  2. 1 point
    Just completed my Third week of my new trading sample set. I am not quite sure what to call this week other than a tough internal fight with myself. Weekly Analysis of trading I was able to trade 4 of 5 days this week. Friday, I just did not have any more emotional capital to give, so I traded simulator. Monday I had a nice trade setup with my edge, it did not quite meet my profit taking criteria, so I ended up getting stopped out. I could have reduced the amount of loss by exiting when the five minute chart indicated that the stock was not going in my direction. After this day I ended up adjusting my exit rules to accommodate for this, so I do not hold onto my loser longer than my winners. Tuesday I had another nice setup on $MU, but did not get a chance to enter, so I had a no trade day. Wednesday was were I started having some problems. All three stocks on my watch list had great 5 min ORBs with a good follow on move. This caused my fight with FOMO to be really tough, going into my 15 min ORB edge. $MU met my trade criteria; however, it also pulled back more than half of the opening candlestick, which is a sign to me that the stock is choppy and should not be traded. Unfortunately, I gave into FOMO and decided to trade outside my sample set with a nice ABCD setup on the 2 & 5 minute charts. I took two trades on this as I had to quickly exit on my first trade as I did not have my stop loss set correctly to my entry point with regards to share size. I then re-entered, once I had this and correct and executed a great profit taking plan. Overall though I did not meet my goal for the day as I traded outside my edge. Thursday was another tough day as I wanted to get back on track for the lasts couple days of the week. I entered a trade on $KO, thinking that I had meet my edge criteria. My psychology was so bad, that I did not even realize I got filled almost .15 cents below my planned entry, I took my first out above my entry point thinking I met my 1R line, and finally somehow I had a significant larger share size than I should have. I eventually got stopped out on the trade and during my post trade analysis, I realized the stock did not meet my trading edge, and I should not have taken the trade. After reviewing my trades, and noticing I was making several trading errors unconsciously, I decided not to trade live on Friday as I was not in the right spot mentally and needed the long weekend to re-focus. I have be extremely satisfied with the trading results of this sample set. Weekly Overall Self Rating: I may not have traded well, but I am extremely happy with my risk management. Daily Goal Hit – 3 of 5 Daily Max Loss – No longer tracking, monitoring just to ensure I don't go over Goals for the month 1. Traded three times outside my sample set this week.. 2. Stick to your trading Rules and focus on developing trading skills, self-discipline, and controlling my emotions while in the trade. Risk Controls 1. Did not trigger Max Loss control. 2. I did not hit Max Shares traded in a day. Trading Methodology 1. Did not change any of my trading or profit taking methodology. Sample Set Results P G S G S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 P - 1:1 than Break-even G - Hit Profit target R - Stopped out # - Trade outside my Edge
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