Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 3/12/2019

My nerves were better today, but still not great. I had a wellbeing score of 5/10. My allowable two trades were with AAPL and MOMO.

My AAPL checklist:

 

I broke my 9:31:45 EST time rule again by a full 30 sec. But I again I didn’t feel this was a 1min ORB. I really felt like it was an early 2min ORB setup. I may want to rethink that rule. AAPL had a very bullish 2min candle being created. This is what it looked like when I took the trade:

The tech level used for the setup and the power was unusual. The price bounced strongly at a level at $179.93 three times, though I do not see anything on the chart to signify its presents. But somewhere there was a big seller(s) at that price. So I call this a weak “curtsy” Once it broke that level I took the trade. I was better with the partials than yesterday, but still not great.

 

My second trade was with MOMO. I really liked the bearish 5min candle and and went short the moment it broke VWAP. But I got a really bad fill (instantly lost 0.5%) and risk/reward was now below 2 to 1. I have been bad about staying in trades after this happen, so I tried to be better about it and I immediately exited the trade at B/E.

What I did good today: I liked my AAPL trade. I improved on my partials.  Kept to my 1 + 1 trade/day rule.

How did I challenge myself today?  Was able to exit a trade as soon as I saw the bad fill. This has been difficult for me and emotionally it felt worse than a stop out.

 What I did bad today:  Taking trades too early. I need to analyze the recent trades and see if the time limit rule needs to be more enforced

What can I do better next tomorrow: Need more patience.

 

Edited March 12, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 3/13/2019

My nerves, before the open are still improving. But were worse during my first trade. I had a wellbeing score of 5/10. My allowable two trades were with ACB and AAPL.

My ACB checklist:

ACB, just after I went long on the 5min chart.This was a nice “Simple” 2min ORB with the 2min candle engulfing the 5min premarket candle:

The order flow was great, but shortly after I took the trade the price action started to get jumpy. So I took an early partial, at a slight profit, to lower my risk. Then I tried to exit at B/E but got a slow fill and was below my entry. ACB was setting up again at the 5min ORB (and did have a good run), but I am not able to trade the same stock twice yet. I can’t trust myself that it may be revenge trading.

 

Then I was looking for a 5min ORB. AMD was setting up the best of the stocks I was looking at, but I am so worried about getting into a rut with trading AMD every day I have been shying away from it. Even though AMD had a good run, AAPL had a good setup as well.

AAPL did have a large wick, but I liked the mini ABCD pattern from the open (on the 1min chart) and I liked the ABCD from premarket on the 5min chart. So I waited for the price to bounce off of VWAP and above a tech level just above VWAP and I went long. The risk/reward was good using the high of the day as a target and VWAP as the S/O. Very quickly the price punched through VWAP and I got stopped out.

 

What I did good today: Actually, I thought these were two OK trades today. They just didn’t pan out. But I kept to my stop loss and so minimal cost to me. Kept to my 1+1 trade/day rule.

How did I challenge myself today?  Took a partial to lower risk, which helped. I usually have trouble doing that.

What I did bad today:  Still taking trades a bit too early.

What can I do better next tomorrow: I shouldn’t have thrown out the idea of trading AMD because I think I am trading it too much.

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 3/14/2019

My nerves were especially bad this morning, but I don’t want to use it as an excuse for today. I just traded sloppy and need to make adjustments. I carelessly missed a veto rule and made a hot key mistake. I had a wellbeing score of 5/10.

Revised my no trades before 9:31:45 rule to increasing the stop out point if trades are taken before then. I won’t change the tech level I choose to stop out on just accept a few more ticks beyond it before I exit and thus reduce my share size to compensate and still have the same $30 risk.

My one allowable trade today was with AAPL.

My APPL checklist:

But I actually made a hot key mistake and doubled my short. I didn’t notice until 2 minutes later when I tried to take MU long and couldn’t. I only have one Montage to prevent myself from trading more than one stock at the time. So that is when I noticed I still had lots of AAPL shares open. I hit the panic key. Nothing happen. I even opened the hot key setup to double check and tried again. Nothing happen. Looking back I assume I forgot to highlight the montage. Then surprisingly I calmed down and started reading my trade log to see what is going on. I saw a cover all should work and it did. AAPL was in play with good volume and I was short biased before the open. It created a nice step setup and had a good first and second target, so I took the trade as it broke the 50MA. Now it is quite embarrassing that I need to journal this on the BBT site, but again my tunnel vision did not see an obvious level just below my entry point. You can see on the chart its incredibly obvious. But, even when I verbally recorded my checklist before I took the trade I didn’t list it as a TL. Just after the I took the trade, my tunnel vision broadened a bit and I saw it. I should have exited the trade immediately or when it hit the TL, but instead I took a partial at the TL and tried to fully exit as it passed the 50MA.

So with taking the bad trade, the hot key mistake and missing out on MU, which could have been my trade of the week, I had to shut my platform down and walk away. It took about 2 hours for I finally being calm and was rational about it. Luckily, I do remember quite clearly what happen. I will make adjustments to my layout to reduce the hot key issue, and find a better color/line for me to see these tech levels even when I have tunnel vision.

But with the bad trade and hot key error I feel lucky I only had a loss of -0.5R today. It could have been a lot worse.

 

What I did good today: I did finally recover from hot key mistake.

How did I challenge myself today?  New 9:31:45 time rule

 What I did bad today:  Inadvertently broke veto rule. Hot key mistake

What can I do better next tomorrow: I need to update my layout before open tomorrow.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Friday 3/15/2019

My nerves were better this morning, I had a well-being score of 5/10.

I have a new veto rule this week (Spread >0.2%) which I did consciously break this morning. Still debating if it was a good idea to do it. Of course if the trade was a winner I probably would have thought better about it.

My one allowable trade today was with GDS.

My GDS checklist:

GDS had a bullish 2min candle forming and I was waiting for it to break the premarket high at 36.75. Price did a curtsy at that level making it a stronger setup. But, the spread was too high. This week I added a new spread veto rule. It was about .4%. Then just as it broke the TL there was a very large ask on L2. I have never used L2 as part of a decision, though I do look at it. With my finger already on the trigger I took the trade.

I took less shares knowing I will get a bad fill. As bad luck would have it the spread jumped to 0.6% the moment I took the trade. Then 1 second later the spread dropped in half. But those are the breaks near the open. But, even with the bad fill I still had a 2-1 reward to risk ratio. 8 seconds later the large ask disappeared and the price fell. I exited right on my planned stop.

Even with the spread veto rule break, I think this was an OK trade. The setup was there and I think the L2 signal was strong enough to take a chance over the spread.

 

 

What I did good today: I kept to my 1 trade/day max rule. Huge FOMO today. I usually trade poorly on Friday and it was really nice to have a positive Friday last week so I really wanted another positive Friday. My finger was right  the trigger, then I stopped myself and shut the platform down.

How did I challenge myself today?  First time used L2 to trigger a trade. Used an updated DAS layout

What I did bad today:  Broke a new spread veto rule.

What can I do better next week: I need to prep and study over the weekend. I usually do, but last weekend I didn’t have a chance and felt unprepared all week.

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 3/15/19.

From a quality standpoint, this week was pretty good. For the most part I took good setups, broke rules infrequently and generally managed the trades OK. Though it’s not supposed to be important at this stage of learning, my low win rate this week started to affect me and I was close to breaking my maximum trade rule on Friday. Luckily I was able to turn off the platform and walk away before taking another trade.

My trade evaluation by week:

This week was interesting since I finish taking 30+ 2min ORB trades since I started live on the DAS platform. 30 is the minimum trades that I will analyze the data. So out of the 31 trades my win rate on the 2min ORB setup was only 65%. My win$/Loser$ ratio was not very good either making this not a profitable setup. Yes my % is much higher when I don’t break rules, but I don’t want to look at the “what ifs”.

What is interesting about the data is my win rate for stocks I have never traded before was 45%. And the win rate for the stocks that I have traded at least once before was 75%. With that info I need to make some adjustments. Now I don’t want to stop taking 2min ORBs on stocks I have never traded before, but I do want to stop the preference I have for new stocks. I am always worried I am going to get into a rut trading the same stocks every day. So if I see a good setup on a familiar stock and a new one, I will always trade the new one. With this data in hand I need to stop that habit. The preference should be in the opposite direction. That will be a focus for next week.

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 3/18/2019

I had a well-being score of 3.5/10 this morning so I was forced to trade on the simulator. And of course, being on the simulator, I had a great day. Actually I took my longest trade to date (both live and SIM). Could I have done that live? Unlikely, I don’t want to fool myself.

I took two trades, both with AAPL. My first trade was a 2min ORB with “Step” setup. What is interesting about the “Step” 2min ORB setup is, there seems to be more and more data showing that it would be better to take the trade after the 2min candle is completed. Versus the other setups the best entry time is more random. Since I was on SIM, I decided to wait the extra 30 seconds and take the trade at the 2min candle break. Well today it looked like taking it early was better. But it’s all probabilities. I need to collect more data.

My AAPL checklist:

Now usually I can’t trade the same stock twice due to emotional control. But on SIM it wasn’t an issue. AAPL was setting up for a 5min ORB with an ABCD. I usually wait for the 3^rd bounce off a tech level for ABCDs, but AMD/MU/SPY were are going higher and I thought AAPL may follow. So I took half a share size long. Very soon after the price fell and did it’s third bounce off the tech level and I took the other half share size long as well.Soon after I took the trade, I didn’t like the price action so I took an early first partial. Then got stopped out on B/E.

Again, since it was SIM and there were no clear levels to take partials, I decided to have some fun and see if I could take my partials at the high of each 5min candle. Looks ike I got close. Then when it broke two tech levels that it was respecting I exited.

 

What I did good today: Longest trade yet (SIM or live).

How did I challenge myself today?  Forced myself to trade on SIM, due to low well-being, though lots of FOMO.

What I did bad today:  Not happy with my well-being score. These scores under 5/10 should be a few times a year not once a week. Also, did I not finished my weekend prep again. So felt unprepared this week like last week.

What can I do better tomorrow/next week: Must complete my weekend prep work!!! Need to get more sleep, these 5/6 hour sleep a night is killing me.

 

 

 

[Mike B 624]

10 hours ago, Rob C said:

I had a well-being score of 3.5/10 this morning so I was forced to trade on the simulator. And of course, being on the simulator, I had a great day. Actually I took my longest trade to date (both live and SIM). Could I have done that live? Unlikely, I don’t want to fool myself.

I have had so many of those days in the past 3 months. Go to simulator and without the psychology or commissions pressure, it easy to enter/exit and hold onto the winners. One day we will be there in our live accounts.

[Rob C 826]

16 hours ago, Mike B said:

I have had so many of those days in the past 3 months. Go to simulator and without the psychology or commissions pressure, it easy to enter/exit and hold onto the winners. One day we will be there in our live accounts.

Agreed Mike.

I have been worried about using the sim, thinking I will reignite my old bad habits. But it seems I was reasonably disciplined on the sim yesterday. So I will try and Incorporated it into my daily trading.

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 3/19/2019

I had a wellbeing score of 5/10. I traded both live and on SIM.

I took two trades, both with AAPL. I haven’t made a market open scalp trade since I was on a self imposed 1+1 trade a day maximum. If you only have one trade allowed , why waste it on a scalp? So I stopped. I use to make this trade a lot since I was live but not for the last 6 weeks with the trade max rule.

At the open AAPL created a bearish 1min candle and shot through 3 very strong supports, including a level that bounced five 1min candles in premarket. When it broke that level I shorted. Not a good fill, but that is common so close to the open. The chart when I took the trade:

It had a clear target, but when reached it I instinctively took a partial and not a full exit. Six weeks out of practice I guess. Then I tried to stop out at B/E but there is some slippage. Another reason not to take a partial. So I only ended up with a small gain. Due to being out of practice, I am forgiving myself not exiting fully and will call this a good trade.

The partial exit on the scalp.

The next trade was also with AAPL. A “Vish” 2min ORB setup. The 2min candle had a large wicks, but it still seems very bearish. I waited for the price to break that premarket level and I took the trade. At first I thought I got a really good fill. But then reality set it and I noticed I never let it fully break the tech level. It touched it and bounced hard and reversed.

My AAPL checklist:

 

I have the setup in light blue since it technically did not break the tech level so a full setup was not there. But I consider this an early entry more than a setup violation. I actually thought it did break the TL when I took the trade. But my video confirms I didn’t. So I will call this a neutral trade instead of a bad one.

This was the moment I took the trade (note it was at the TL not past it):

 

 

Then got stopped out:

Since I took a small share size, due to so close to market open, and a good fill, I lost little on the trade.

 

After I used up my to allowed trades, I switched to SIM. I took a trade with WHD. After trading SIM yesterday I thought it may be useful to continue. I am usually wearly about SIM since bad habits are usually formed. But I seemed to be more disciplined about SIM trades now.This was a 5min ORB, which I took a little before the finish of the 5min candle. It broke VWAP, came back to test VWAP again and I went long when it bounced from it. If I took it at the break of the 5min candle it would have pushed the edge of the 2 to 1 R/R. But, R/R was much better on my entry point.

It did finally reach my target (a few cents from it) and I took partials along the way. The volume was dropping every minute, from entry, so I exited the first sign of weakness.

 

What I did good today: Didn’t break any rules on purpose today.

How did I challenge myself today?  Took a scalp trade. Traded both live and on simulator.

What I did bad today:  One trade had a poor exit and the other a poor entry. Though neither on purpose.

What can I do better tomorrow: Watch for the clean breaks of tech levels. Not the first time I had an issue with this.

 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 3/20/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Hopefully spring will bring higher well-being scores. My nerves though were worse than usual.

I took two trades, both with AMD.

AMD quickly formed a very bullish 2min candle and I took an early 2min ORB.

The 2min candle forming look like this when I went long:

I did take my first partial too early (due to nerves), but other partials were OK.

 

My second trade was also on AMD. I was looking for a good 5min ORB setup and AMD was giving an ABCD setup as well. Since there was no tech level to bounce off (to take the trade before 5min) I was waiting for the break of the 5min candle. I did hear Andrew took the trade. But, I waited until the third 1min candle bounced off the same support level (my ABCD rule), then I went long. I chose the shares using VWAP as my S/O and a little lower in case I want to add shares at VWAP. The moment I took the trade the price started dropping fast. I added some shares at VWAP, which is not usnual for 5min ORB with a very tight stop a few pennies below VWAP. Since the price blew through VWAP my buy and sell-all were about 1 second apart. It’s actually difficult to see the sell triangle on the 1min chart, it was so close to the buy.

Though I waited for the setup, entered and stopped out exactly where I wanted, this trade created some emotional negativity. It took me about an hour afterwards when I reviewed the trade before I realized the issue. I took the trade as a ABCD setup, but my share size, S/O point and share adding were based on a 5min ORB. That doesn’t work. For my ABCD setup the S/O should have been just below the support level with larger shares and I don’t add shares to an ABCD set up.

 

What I did good today: Good setups, mostly good execution.

How did I challenge myself today?  Took back to back trades on the same stock. That has been difficult for me to do.

What I did bad today:  Though I didn’t break any rules, I did cross rules from two different setups.

What can I do better tomorrow: Must keep setup rules separate, even though they can occur at the same time.

 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 3/21/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were good.

I took two trades, AMD and MU.

AMD was a 1min ORB. 1min candle was strong, then I tried to catch the pullback bounce off of VWAP. The bounce was so fast I had about 5 cent slippage. I took a first partial at HOTD. It immediately reversed and I S/O at B/E.

My second trade was with MU. It had a really good “step” 2min ORB. But data is showing that I should wait for the 2min candle break for “Step” setups. The price finally made a clear break after 9:33 EDT. Price immediately reversed after I went long I was stopped out. I thought this was a good trade that didn’t work out until I reviewed it later and saw the 2min candle was larger than 0.5 ATR. Thus the trade should have been vetoed. I don’t measure the candle exactly, I usually just eye-ball its size and it seemed large but OK when I was trading. But it was 65% of ATR and thus trade should not have been taken.

 

 

 

 

What I did good today: Good execution today

How did I challenge myself today?  Waited for the completion of a setup. I was dying to enter MU early.

What I did bad today:  I shied away from trading AAPL, which had the best setup, because I thought I have been trading it too much lately. AAPL of course was a really good ORBU. Not the first time I have done that. Also, inadvertently broke a veto rule.

What can I do better tomorrow: Choose the best setup, it doesn’t matter if I have traded it every day this week. Be more mindful of 2min candle size compared to ATR. Measure it you have to.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Friday 3/22/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. My nerves were on the bad side.

I took two trades, both on AMD.

AMD was setting up for a reverse to VWAP. Actually so was AAPL, but it reversed too quickly, so I switch my attention on AMD. The checklist I used for this is: 1min candle >1%, well beyond Bollinger band (20SMA 4 sigma) and has a strong tech level to reverse on (which it did at 27.25). I took it after it reversed (always some slippage):

 Just after I took the trade.

I really thought there was a good chance to break VWAP so I only took a partial instead of scalping it at VWAP. It reversed and I exited when it broke the 27.42 tech level (a premarket level and the 200SMA from the 5min chart).

AMD then beecame immediately bearish. I was hesitant to flip postions, because I never know if it is correct due to emotions. But then I thought that I just had a winning trade, so I can’t be feeling revenge trading. Then I went short, which ended up simultaneous with Andrew.

The moment I took the trade:

My checklist:

There was a strong first tech level to take a partial on, though my target was the tech level at 26.9.

I took a few partials and my final exited more on nerves than anything else.

 

 

 

What I did good today: Traded well on a Friday!! Which is usually my worse day of the week.

How did I challenge myself today?  Took a reverse to VWAP trade. It’s been awhile since I have done that. Did my first “flip” trade since I have been live.

What I did bad today:  Exited a trade due to nerves. Share sizes were a little light.

What can I do better tomorrow/next week: Keep a better eye on SPY. Somedays I am on it, others I am not. Today I was poor at it even though it told a lot today. I have a whole screen dedicated to SPY. I need to always look at it.

 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 3/22/19.

From a quality standpoint, this week was OK. I did break a veto rule, but it was marginal (>0.5*ATR) and thus learned a lesson to measure not eyeball. And I mixed and matched setup/execution rules once this week. Another lesson learned. I took a setup with one set of rules but I executed with a different setup rules. Didn’t go well. It is unusual that the stock has two different setups simultaneously, but from now on I need to call it and executed as one particular setup. Though no major mistakes were made, my only two really good trades were on the SIM which I did not include in my evaluation.

My trade evaluation by week:

 

Need another solid week and can call it a good month. February was only marginally good and first week of March I had some rule breaks, but I have been better since. Some good lessons learned this week and started adding SIM to my live trades. It is too bad that my 5min ORB results are so bad now. But when I take a SIM 5min ORB I usually get a winner. So I need to keep taking these live until I get those fixed. I am reducing my share size on those.

[Rob C 826]

Monday 3/25/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. My nerves were really bad this morning, heart was pounding on both trades. I made it worse because I was a little rushed this morning with a late gappers list so unable to do breathing exercises before open. This was the third weekend without preparation for the week. This should be the last weekend like this. Will definitely be working hard to make up for it next weekend.

APPL was setting up as a possible scalp so I was watching it at open. A whole minute went buy with no scalping opportunities. Then on the second minute it was setting up, though the target was 30 cents away which is a bit of a stretch for AAPL, but since the stock was moving so much today I gave it a try. So I went long when it broke the 20MA with a target of the 50MA. It didn’t make it, though close. I did take a partial at the high but it reversed so fast I only got a dime out of it. I did plan on taking a 50% partial not the full. Then it stalled and I got out. I did get my 10 cents. 10 to 20 cents is a normal scalp for AAPL.

 

Next trade was a 2min ORB on AMD.  My instinct was to take the trade when it crossed the 26.38 tech level, but the 5min 200MA was there to reduce my R/R <2. So I waited patiently for the price to cleanly break it. The candle was still below the <0.5*ATR criteria. I waited for a clean break of the 200MA then went long.

Checklist:

I usually take a large first partial on 2min ORBs, but I was more confident on this trade than usual, so my first two partials were small. Then AMD was setting up for a mini ABCD for the 5min ORB so I waited. Then I heard Andrew taking the trade. There were no good TLs to take partials on except the $27 level. So I tried to take partials on the 1min candle highs. I missed the last one since I was waiting to see if it would break $27. It didn’t and I got out when it showed weakness.

 

 

What I did good today: Was more patient at the open.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded through my nerves and took smaller partials

What I did bad today:  Aimed to high on an AAPL scalp.

What can I do better tomorrow: Really need to work on my nerves. Will try and do some prep work tonight.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 3/26/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. My nerves were bad this morning, but I had time for extended breathing exercises which really helped.

I had two trades today both on AMD.

First trade was a scalp. Both AMD and AAPL both were setting up for it. AMD looked a little better so I focused on it. Of course AAPL was the better one J

I took the trade as it broke the high of the day with a target 10 cents away (the green line). The enter fill had a 3 cent slide and so did the exit. Thus I made very little from the trade. I did plan to take a large partial instead of all out due to a strong second target. Then got out at B/E.

 

My second trade was with AMD. AMD had a very bullish 2min candle forming with VWAP near the end of the candle. A really nice setup.

Chart when I took the trade:

My checklist:

I took the trade when it made a clear break of the 1min VWAP. My target was at 26.32 where both a tech level and 200MA resided. There was a strong first target as well, the 50MA which was just ~1.5R from away. The price did hit the first target but it bounced from it so fast that I was unable to take a partial. I watch the video and it looks like I can’t blame myself for missing the partial, it was REALLY a fast bounce. Then price reversed and I got stopped out.

So it seems I am still not ready to trade after a loss. This was a reasonably good trade that happens to be a loss and my mental state was not ready to take an impartial trade afterwards.

Another thought bothering me. Since I have not done my “homework” the last 3 weekends due to family and work commitments, I was thinking maybe this wasn’t a good trade. Of all the stocks AMD changes its personality the quickest. I like using 50MA as a target (for AMD) for the first partial since it tends to pull the stock toward it but if the stock is strong/weak it tends not to repel it. I wonder if that has changed in the last 3 weeks. I will be definitely reviewing charts this weekend and will find out.

 

What I did good today: Stopped out right on target without emotion.

How did I challenge myself today?  Successfully fought through the urge to revenge trade.

What I did bad today:  I haven’t reviewed charts in 3 weeks. I am wondering now if I am making poor decision based on old data.

What can I do better tomorrow: I will try and review charts a little each day to catch up.