Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 8/15/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were OK.

I took 1 live trade with AAPL and 4 SIM trades.

AAPL and ROKU looked fine to have as my two main focuses againthis morning.

I was long biased on AAPL only because it seems to move higher at the open recently. I did assume that I will have to take a trade in the first 30 seconds. It’s just the way AAPL is moving at the open. AAPL open lower and tested the 203 level and then made a nice hammer setting up for me to go long at 203.50. The issue, like yesterday, the volume was not strong and I have a strong daily level in my way at 203.73. So I waited for the price to break the level and I went long. My target was 204.50 with a stop at 203.50 like yesterday. I was able to get in 3 small partials before price retraced. Since these levels were the same as yesterday I should have taken a heavier 3^rd partial knowing it may reverse at those levels. The price reversed and I exited at B/E. And just like yesterday if I held until the level just below B/E the price would have bounce $1.50. Again I am not ready to change my exiting rules yet.

The chart when I took the trade.

 

 

The entire trade:

 

I then took 4 SIM trades. Three were just one partial than S/O at B/E and one was a full –R S/O.

I got a little farther with short finder app with Centerpoint and now I see you can’t use it in SIM. I was hoping I would still have to pay for the location and reserving them, but not take the trade. But no dice. They have a 100 share min and I am not ready to take 100 shares on ROKU. So I didn’t use it today.

Score Card (live trade)

AAPL

86%

What I did good today:  Becoming less stressful to open trades under 1 min from the open.

What I am grateful from today?  My 5min ORBs (in SIM) are slowly getting better.

What do I need to improve on:  Need to revise and back test exit strategies.

 

 

 

[IamKarthi 342]

Very nice trade on $AAPL, both planning and execution. Looks like price respected your strong daily level at 203.73, do you think about entering the trade again when it formed ABCD on 1min. 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 8/16/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were OK. I took half share size today since it was Friday.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and NVDA and 3 SIM trades.

I have not been happy with ROKU this week. Since I was half shares today I decided to have NVDA as my second focus with AAPL.

AAPL had those same two levels looming above it at the open again (same as yesterday). AAPL opened and moved with no pattern for about 20 seconds than got a huge volume increase and broke through the two levels. I went long at the break. My target was the 205.11 level with the 204.33 as my stop. The price moved up, I took a partial, but than stalled and I took another quick partial. The price retraced quickly. I tried to exit at B/E, but the price slid right through and took all my profits away for a small loss.

The chart when I took the trade.

 

 

 

 

The entire trade:

 

 

 

 

 

I then saw NVDA create a nice 2min  hammer. I don’t know how NVDA behaves so unsure how to treat the daily level just above it. I watched the price move up and bounce hard from the daily level. My first instinct was to wait patienly to see if the price breaks that level and go long. But what I see with AAPL is these levels are a strong magnet for the price. Though it may not breeak the level it is low risk that the price will not reverse on you until it reaches it. So I could take a partial and get out at break even. Plus there wre no levels for $3 above this level, so if it broke through it may really run. So on a pull back I went long. I had a stop at 160 but no defined target. Price moved up to the daily level where I took a partial as planned. Price retraced then shot right through my B/E. So my exit was at my original stop at 160. I still think this was worth the gamble.

I then took 3 SIM trades all small winners.

Score Card (live trade)

AAPL	NVDA
88%	84%

 

What I did good today:  Took 3 winning trades I liked on SIM

What I am grateful from today?  Only a loss of -0.2R. That’s like a winning day for a Friday.

What do I need to improve on:  Same as yesterday. I need to revise and back test exit strategies.

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

8 hours ago, IamKarthi said:

Very nice trade on $AAPL, both planning and execution. Looks like price respected your strong daily level at 203.73, do you think about entering the trade again when it formed ABCD on 1min. 

Thanks. 

But I actually don't have the emotional reserves yet to take a second trade on a stock that I already made money from. Even if the second trade is a good one, if I get stopped out and return my profits it hits me harder than just being stopped out.

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 8/16/19.

Much less drama this week. Improved my score card with an average of 86%. I took 7 live trades this week. One trade I was disappointed with. My win% was a good 57% but I was flat for the week. I took one big loss and no big winner. I took 18 SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) with a 60% win rate, which is really high for me.

Since AAPL was the only stock that my weekend back test data said was in play and I had shorts, so it was most of my trades. ROKU backtest data said it was in play, but It was giving false long signals at the open and really good short signals but Centerpointe has no shorts (on the easy to short list). So I gave up on it and looked at NVDA on Friday instead.

Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open. Last week I had two possible stocks for my secondary focus, ROKU and TSLA. ROKU always had a better premarket, but the good moves were to the short side (at the open) where I don’t have shorts with Centerpointe. Looking at last week charts of TSLA it would have been the better one to follow, but it always had little volume in the premarket. But maybe it’s like FB where it doesn’t need PM volume.

Here is my plan for this week:

Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus.

Both MU, AMD and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data.

Keep $30 risk per trade.

If you can find a stock on the gappers list that you like then make it your secondary focus. If not choose TSLA. Use small share size or even SIM when trading TSLA until you better understand its personality

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

 

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 8/20/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were OK. I was unable to trade yesterday since I wanted to be at my son’s first day of school.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and TSLA and 4 SIM trades.

I have not been happy with ROKU last week. So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, NVDA and HD on my 5min ORB watchlist.

AAPL was holding the 200MA-1min (as support) during premarket which gave me a slight long bias. At the open the price tested the 200MA-1min found support again and made a small hammer. Then it broke the 210.83 daily level. Since the hammer was small for the open I waited an instant if it held above the level. It did and I went long with HOPM (211.66) as my target and the low of the day as my stop. My fill was absolutely terrible losing 35 cents and destroying my R/R. Thus I need to get out of the trade immediately. This is a discipline I have A LOT of trouble with. The price started going into my favor immediately so I should have sold all the shares at a small profit. But I didn’t and started trading as normal. I took two small partial and S/O at B/E

The chart when I got filled.

 

 

The entire trade:

 

 

 

After the AAPL trade I saw TSLA had a 1min ORB setup. TSLA had a poor PM but that is usual for TSLA. The price opened and found support at the low of PM and formed a hammer. When it broke the 227.84 tech level I went long with a target of HOPM (229.80) and a stop the 200MA-1min. The price reached my first partial at the 50MA-1min but then quickly dropped and I S/O at B/E. There was some slippage so it was a slight loss and thus I am flat for the day.

What the chart looked like when I took the trade:

The entire trade:

 

I then took 4 SIM trades. Three made it to the first partial then S/O at B/E and one SIM trade was a full -1R loss.

Score Card (live trade)

AAPL	TSLA
80%	89%

 

What I did good today:  Traded TSLA live for the first time in months. TSLA scares me a bit.

What I am grateful from today?  Flat for the day. I got to trade for free today.

What do I need to improve on:  I am considering bringing back the 3 trade rule where I am allowed a third trade if I S/O early on another trade. Since I have a 2 trade max S/O’ing early is difficult for me. I removed this rule actually as a punishment a couple of months ago. For the most part I was using it OK.

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 8/21/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were OK.

I took 2 live trades with TSLA and 4 SIM trades.

So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with NVDA, AMD, LOW and TGT on my 5min ORB watchlist.

AAPL had an OK PM, TSLA  showed little life in the PM but I like it was counter trending. The market open and AAPL was giving me no setup. TSLA had a solid dollar move and breached a PM level I had marked 223.10 which also coincides with the 200MA-1min. The price came down and tested it and found support, then again. On the third bounce I went long. My target was the 224.73 tech level and my stop was the 222.27 level. On the next test of support the price fell right through the two levels without any support and I was quickly stopped out.

As the price was falling I noticed it was forming a very nice 2min shooting start. When the price broke the 222.27 level I flipped positions. My stop was the high of the day. But there no good levels below. There was a level at 221.70 but PM showed little support for it. The next level was $5 below. So I took my first partial at the 221.70 level then tried to take a second partial at the recent PM low and got a bad fill. I tried two more times and also got bad fills. In the heat of the trade I was forgetting to look at the spread which you need to for TSLA. Then with the little shares I had left I focused on the ask price and then took the remaining two partials correctly. But, due to the bad partials my win only equaled my loss and I was flat for the day.

Both trades:

 

I then took 4 SIM trades. All 4 I made one or two partials then I was S/O at B/E. I have noticed this seems to be the norm for my 5/10min ORBs. If it remains like this I may increase my 1^st partial share size. It’s odd that the 5min ORBs are more of a scalp than my 1min ORBs

Score Card (live trade)

TSLA	TSLA
88%	90%

What I did good today:  Good score cards today.

What I am grateful from today?  Flat for the day. I got to trade for free today.

What do I need to improve on:  Need to start back testing 5min ORBs as well. If I use the same stocks as my 1/2min watchlist they are mostly scalps at 5/10min.

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 8/22/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were good.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and TGT and 6 SIM trades. Feeling pretty bad about today’s session. But, as time passes I am thinking this may have been a really good learning session.

So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and TGT on my 5min ORB watchlist.

AAPL had an OK PM, TSLA had a lot of volume and gapped up but PM looked a little scary. AAPL setup nicely with a small hammer on lots of volume. I did have two major tech levels in front of it, so I waited for the price to breach one of them and went long. My target was the daily level at 214.14 and my stop was the LOTD. At least for AAPL, I like a major tech level in the way. It seems to pull the price to it. Yes it may find unsurmountable resistance at this level, but I am OK with taking a partial there and getting out at B/E. So I like that there is a tech level at 213.68. That level was suppose to be my 1^st partial target, but since it took awhile for the price to start moving I was impatient and took the 1^st partial early. Then my second partial was at the tech level. I took my third partial on a price spike. Then the momentum was lost and I exited near B/E. Too bad I took small partials. I was hoping it would run.

Next trade was with TGT. I saw nice setup on my side chart. TGT was strong today but opened lower and then made a nice 2^nd 1min candle hammer. I wanted to go long at 105 with the HOTD as my target and LOTD as my stop. R/R<2 but we have no substantial targets since price is at an all time high. I brought TGT to my main chart so I can take the trade. As I did it hit my entry point, but an instant before I took the trade I balked because the Y scale seemed a bit abnormal. So I stopped to recheck my stop and check if my share size was correct. My calculations were fine, but this took a couple of seconds. By that point my entrance was lost. But I don’t have a last instant check when I take a trade. If I see an entrance the share size calculation is almost instint (mostly due to my platform setup and not my mental capabilities) so there is no “are you sure” in my process flow. It was weird watching the price move but I couldn’t stop myself, the trade was already a GO. The moment I took the trade I knew it was a mistake, but it reversed instintly and price dropped so fast I was caught in the headlights. The stop was now twice as far, at least I moved the stop to VWAP so my loss was just over -1R on the trade.

I then took 6 SIM trades. 5 losers and one small winner. That sure didn’t help my confidence. Though two of the losers, with a larger stop, would have been big winners

Score Card (live trade)

AAPL TGT 91% 75%

What I did good today:  Two things I learned today. After my AAPL trade my immediate instinct was that I was done for the day, switch to SIM. But, intellectually I was thinking that was a small win and I am allowed another trade. Plus, I am negative so far for the month which is highly unusual at this point in the month. For the last 9 months I am usually been positive at this point (to give it back the last week). So I really pushed myself to go against my instincts to take another trade. But, my intuition knew I was not going to trade well. And I didn’t. So it’s good that I am developing this inner voice and its getting louder. I just need to start listening to it.

Second is I have an issue trading a second time on a stock I already made money. If I have a winning trade and then a losing trade on another stock it’s usually not too bad emotionally. But, if I give all my winnings back on the same stock it really hurts. Not sure why. But because of this I have really been missing out on some really good trades. Four times in 9 days AAPL set up REALLY well after my 1^st trade was finished. I see it but I won’t trade it. All four times AAPL went for really good runs. If I caught just one of them I would be positive for the month. Vikram called me on this the other day and he is very much correct.

What I am grateful from today?  Actually happy with a -0.3R loss. It could have been worse after the TGT debacle.

What do I need to improve on:  Need to teach myself to take more than one trade on the same stock. Every trade should be its own emotional state, not based on a previous trade.

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 8/23/2019

I had a well-being score of 7.5/10 this morning. My nerves were OK. Traded half share size today since it is Friday.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and FL and 4 SIM trades.

So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, CRM and FL on my 5min ORB watchlist.

Both AAPL and TSLA felt the tariff crunch and was trading with the market during PM. I had no bias for TSLA, but AAPL has been having these small pops at the open. It opened with the usual hammer with good volume and I went long when it was about to engulf the PM last candle. My target was the 210.83 daily level, which was $1.20 away, which is perfect. My stop was the 50MA-1min which there was PM respect. The price did pop, but only 60 cents. I got two partials than the price dropped and I exited at B/E  with some slippage for a small win.

Though I am not familiar with FL it was setting up for a 3min ORB like the ones MU use to have setups for. I went long on the break of the 3min candle and 200MA-1min. My target was the $38 and 200MA-1min my stop. I took a partial at the HOPM which was also the HOTD. Then a heavy partial when it moved 20 cents further. The stock did move 1% on the trade which is good.

I then took 4 SIM trades. Two losers and two winners. All 4 were +/-1R gainer/losers, so I broke even. I didn’t let my winners run.

Score Card (live trades)

AAPL FL 92% 91%

What I did good today:  I like my score cards today.

What I am grateful from today?  Trading a new stock ticker.

What do I need to improve on:  Need to perform my periodic evaluation of my partialing. It’s been too long and there is way more scalping now.

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 8/23/19.

I improved my score card, this week, with an average of 87%. I took 8 live trades this week. Two trades were quite bad. Both trades I made the same mistake. I had a poor fill or entry and needed to get out of the trade immediately. I didn’t and would get stopped out for at least the full R.  My win% was a good 63% but I was flat for the week again. Both of my sizeable winners were both at half share size so they couldn’t out weigh the losers. I took quite a few SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) though my win rate was OK I was at net loss for the SIM trades.

I did take some non-AAPL trades (TSLA  and FL) so that was a highlight.

I tallied the last 6 months (26 weeks) of scores I have been giving myself on my level of nerves before the start of each trading day. I summed up the total for each week and plotted it. A negative comment would be assigned a -1, neutral comment a zero and a positive comment a +1. It looks like my nerves have been under control for the last few weeks. I will leave that comment out of my daily journal unless it is enough to affect my trading.

Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open, though acting more like a scalp with little chance to run. TSLA is still OK at the open. MU is back in play but mostly at the 2 or 3 min mark.

Here is my plan for this week:

Concentrate on the process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Take heavier partial profits, assume it’s a scalp at the open.

AMD and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data.

Keep $30 risk per trade.

If you can find a stock on the gappers list that you like then make it your secondary focus. If not choose TSLA. Use small share size with TSLA until you better understand its personality

Keep an eye on MU for 2/3min ORBs

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Don’t add to any trade, even winners.

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

 

Edited August 25, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Monday 8/26/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning. I knew I only had time for one trade this morning, since it was my daughters first day of school.

I took 1 live trade with AAPL.

So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, TGT and BMY on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I was long biased on AAPL and liked that it gave back some of its gains just before the open. I had no bias on TSLA. I really liked that AAPL fell right at the open and was waiting for the hammer to form. The price bounced off of a 205.50 level that the PM was respecting. Then there were 5 tech levels (205.93 daily, VWAP, $206, 50MA-1min, and 200MA-1min) all within 20 cents of each other. I waited for the break of all of them (loved the volume) and went long. My order was not filled. The price moved so fast it went passed the market limit order. Only the second time this has happen since I went live. I didn’t get too nervous because AAPL usually does a pull back when it flies through a strong level. It will come back to test it. And the missed market order left a limit order in a perfect spot. So I waited and my order was filled a few seconds later. My target was the 206.80 PM level and my stop was the 205.93 daily level. The R/R~3 was nice but I was nervous the stop was too close for a trade taken 17 seconds after the open. But, the next stop level was the 205.50 which was too far. So I used the 205.93 as my stop and took half shares, since there will be a lot of slippage.

The upward movement stalled for awhile so I took a small partial at +20c thinking the trade will reverse. Then the price dropped below my entry but there was such a strong level just below my entry I held on. It touched that level twice and found support. Then it headed higher. Then I took another small partial on my planned 1^st target (a minor PM level). The price found resistance there and took some time to break through. After that my faith in the trade was reducing and I started taking partials a bit too fast though I took small ones. It did reach my target and I had 25% of my shares left which is good for me. I got another partial at 207 and held on to a few shares and exited when the price broke down through the 206.46 PM level again.

 

Score Card (live trades)

AAPL 92%

What I did good today:  I like my score card today.

What I am grateful from today?  It was nice having a winner when I knew I had time for only one trade today. It was nice to see my daughter happy at her first day of school, when most kids dread it.

What do I need to improve on:  I had fun with this trade, so I am going to leave this blank today.

 

 

 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 8/27/2019

I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning. Had some big emotional swings this session.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and 3 SIM trades.

So AAPL and ROKU were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and PLAN on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I had no bias on AAPL today but it was trading in a position at the open where there were levels  60c above and below it. Above the resistant level there was nothing but white space on the chart. Ten seconds after the open the priced popped on large volume and broke the 208.43 level. Then it hung around that level for 10 seconds so I took it long. There was no target in sight so I chose the 210 level with my stop the 207.95 PM level. The instant I entered the trade it reversed and did not look back and I quickly got stopped out. Everytime the a trade like this happens it creates an emotional hit. I hate when they instantly go against you. You feel if you waited just one second more I would have not gotten into this trade.

As it dropped I could see that this would be a nice short with a shooting star forming and flipped my position when it broke the 207.95 level. There was a bit of a slide. My target was the 207.18 level with my stop at 208. A minute later I did get a small partial. Then I waited and noticed the 20MA-1min was being respected which is unusual so soon after the open. Three minutes later there was a white candle that respected the VWAP-1min so I pulled my stop to VWAP. The next candle broke VWAP and I stopped out. Again more emotional hits as the instint I stopped out the price reversed and never looked back and became a really good short. If I gave it 1c more….

I had to step away from screen for a few minutes actually. I did come back and made three SIM trades (1 for 3). Then I left the screen again and didn’t want to journal for awhile. I was pretty salty this morning as I went through my morning. Then I came back to the screen to write my journal entry and saw it wasn’t that bad. There were solid score cards and lots of learning. Even my SIM trades were fine. All I remember is I took 3 trades and stopped out on 2 of them. When I came back and looked and sure I was 33% win rate on my SIM trades but then I noticed I was quite profitable on my SIM trades today. And my S/Os were well managed. So actually I traded well.

A few big learnings. I have been burned a few times recently about trading the open when the R/R is too big. It seems when you are close to the open you need a strong level close to your entry to pull the price to it. I will no longer take a trade without a level within 1R trading off a column candle. A hammer/shooting star may still be reasonable to take the trade. But these solid candle trades into the leveless open space don’t work near the open.

The second learning is it is time to loosen up on the stop outs. Stopping out is still very hard for me. To adapt I become very robotic at the time of stop out. I focus on the point of the stop out and I trigger the exit when it is reached. I turn off my intellect. I am so worried about not having the strength to stop out that I have been stopping out too early. Today was a good example. There was VWAP, a PM level and the 208 level within pennies of each other. So why choose VWAP, the first level the price will reach, to stop out? These three levels make a fuzzy band level. Choosing the first one is not wise at all. I will work to change that from now on.

I have been proud of myself that I don’t look at my P/L until the trading session is over. It was a difficult thing to accomplish. I have done that for months now. But I still focus on the P/L daily and is a concern all month. But my focus should be my score card. So starting tomorrow, the P/L window will be closed. I will only look at it at the end of each month.

 

Score Card (live trades)

AAPL FL 88% 91%

What I did good today:  I like my score card today.

What I am grateful from today?  Lots of learning today.

What do I need to improve on:  Focus on the score card. P/L window will be closed until the end of each month.

 

 

 

 

[IamKarthi 342]

You are making some nice trades on $AAPL, Nice flipping to your position. Stoping out is no fun, but $AAPL was so wicky yesterday very difficult to put your stoploss. 

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 8/28/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning (< 4 hours of sleep). So I took half share size today.

I took 2 live trades with AAPL and 2 SIM trades.

So AAPL and ROKU were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and TIF on my 5min ORB watchlist.

I had no bias on AAPL today, it was opening at PDC. The price open and popped on volume quickly to 204.80. I waited for a pull back. I entered the trade at 204.40 and expected a 10-20 slide but got a 40 cent slide. My target was 205.10 and PDC was my stop. The R/R was totally down the drain and thus I need to get out of the trade. As usual I don’t have the mental muscle to do so. I watched my video and I had at least 10 seconds to get out of the trade at a 10c loss and never did. I held onto the trade for almost 5 minutes since the price kept finding resistance at the PDC and 200MA-1min. At 9:35 I decided if it broke down through the PDC I would flip my position. It did and I did. My target was the 205.55 level with VWAP as my stop. I took the first two partial correctly at tech levels. I almost got stopped out after the first partial, but learned my lesson yesterday to give it a little more room. I only had a few shares left when it squeezed up and I exited when it broke the 203.73 level.

Since the first trade stop was now double planned and I took both trades half shares I assume I am in the red today even though the second trade was an OK winner. I am no longer looking at my P/L until the end of the month so I don’t know exactly.

I took two SIM trades. One a winner with AAPL on the long side and a small loss with TSLA. TSLA was an ABCD pattern, but after a few minutes the Time/Sales litterally stopped. I exited immediately.

 

 

Score Card (live trades)

AAPL AAPL 73% 93%

What I did good today:  I like my second trade and my SIM trades. I still haven’t looked at my P/L.

What I am grateful from today?  Taking half share sizes.

What do I need to improve on:  Will evoke the 3 trade allowed rule if exited early from a trade due to poor entry or early stop due to technical. The exit must be an early one.

Will deduct 5 points (on my score card) for a trade that I don’t exit due to bad fill. I will add 5 pts if I exit early due to bad fill.

I must start to learn how to exit early on trades.

 

 

 

 

[Mark D. 435]

23 hours ago, Rob C said:

Everytime the a trade like this happens it creates an emotional hit. I hate when they instantly go against you. You feel if you waited just one second more I would have not gotten into this trade.

agree with this. When a trade never goes in my favor it kills my psychology. shame about that wick out on the short but it happens, that also kills my emotions.

you're right, it was a good trading day that just happened to not work by a penny. 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Mark D.