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Mike B

Live Journal Exercise – Learning to Trade an Edge like a Casino

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November 5, 2019

Today was my 1 year anniversary of trading live and I ended up trading the same stock today that I did a year ago. I had $AMRN and $AMD on my watchlist for the open. $AMRN sold off to quickly and never pulled back towards VWAP. I was really hoping it would as it looked very weak during the first 5 minutes. Instead I ended up trading $AMD on a 15 min ORBO. I got in about two minutes before Andrew and was very happy with the entry. I took a partial too early (about .04 early) at the high of day, as Andrew was partially around that area and just felt like if he is doing it, you need to. Well, that ended up with getting stopped out at break even and of course the stock moved back up to my initial partial area, 2R, and finally to my 3R level. All I could do was laugh at myself, and remind myself you know better, stick to your plan.

This weekend I plan on doing a recap for my 1 year of trading and posting it here and in the members forum.

Sample Set Results,

S P G E E P P P P G G P P P G 17 18 19 20

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Edited by Mike B
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November 6, 2019

I was only able to trade for about 20 minutes at the open due to work. I had $CVS and $AMD on watch. I didn't like the spread during the first few minutes, so I ignored it for a opening range strategy. I started watching $AMD, knowing that it would be choppy, but might setup for a nice 15 minute Opening range. It started to setup and then I had to go, so I ended up with no trades. In the afternoon, I didn't get back until around 1145, so I was not going to force anything and instead just watched the market to the close.

Sample Set Results,

S P G E E P P P P G G P P P G 17 18 19 20

Edited by Mike B

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14 minutes ago, Mike B said:

November 6, 2019

I was only able to trade for about 20 minutes at the open due to work. I had $CVS and $AMD on watch. I didn't like the spread during the first few minutes, so I ignored it for a opening range strategy. I started watching $AMD, knowing that it would be choppy, but might setup for a nice 15 minute Opening range. It started to setup and then I had to go, so I ended up with no trades. In the afternoon, I didn't get back until around 1145, so I was not going to force anything and instead just watched the market to the close.

Sample Set Results,

S P G E E P P P P G G P P P G 17 18 19 20

I wish I had your discipline Mike.

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November 7, 2019 - $AMD and $IQ

Well took 2 trades today. A 5 min Orb on $AMD and a 15 min Orb on $IQ. The $AMD trade was a great setup. Everything was there, pull back towards VWAP, rejection of VWAP twice with a shooting star candle, followed up by a break of previous candle creating a pivot point. Then it stopped me out, along with giving a couple cent’s for slippage. No big deal, it was a good trade, moved on and noticed the pullback happening on $IQ.

Once $IQ rejected VWAP with a break of the previous candle and the moving averages in a favorable position, I took an entry without any hesitation. Got a good pop and then it was like a brick wall hit the stock and put a stop to all the volume and momentum. I eventually got a 1R partial, but because of how slow it was moving I had to set a range order and go work. I thought about just closing out the position, but I was pretty far away from my breakeven point, so I figured I could survive for an hour or two. Well when I came back, it looked like the market makers came for me and some other trades. A huge spike to my stop along with .05 cent slippage and an immediate pop back up, with a ton of volume. Oh well. I ended the day with two good trades that just didn’t work out.

Life goes on and I will be there tomorrow for another stab at it.

Sample Set Results,

S P G E E P P P P G G P P P G S P 19 20

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November 11, 2019 - $AMD and $IQ

So the results of the Me vs. The Market after entering a trade are, "Market 2 Me 0." I say that because the market got the better of me today. I had two good setups on $JD and $AMD. I took an entry on $JD, got the move in my direction but not quite out to my 1R level. The stock pulled back and I eventually got out at a break above the high of the pre-market, although this was about 4 cents below my stop out level. after exiting the stock went back in my direction eventually hitting my 1R level and 2R. If I had stuck with my plan, would have be a +1.5R instead a -.63R. 

Then there was $AMD. I hesitated a little on the entry costing me about 2 cents on my entry, no big right. Well as you will see it was the difference between stopping out at break even and getting a 3R winner.  I got the initial move to my 1R and covered. I then put in a range order for 75% out at 2R to let the last little bit ride to the PCL. Eventually the stock pop hard back to my break even and just as it was about to hit I realized I did not have a stop out that had my position. My range order filled stopping me out of 75% of my position and I quickly covered the rest with the hotkey. Of course, it came right to my break even point and reversed back in my direction. Had I not hesitated on the entry I would not have gotten stopped out and would have hit my profit target. 

Tough day today, but I walked walked away with a small loss after commissions and fees. I executed poorly causing me to leave money on the table. Better luck tomorrow.

I plan on posting my yearly re-cap later tonight. I just need to finish the last few portions up.

Sample Set Results,

S P G E E P P P P G G P P P G S P E P

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November 12, 2019 $AMRN

Well I failed misserably at getting my yearly recap done yesterday. I had to take care of some personal issues that came up in the afternoon, so I will look at getting it done today and posting it.

I had a good watchlist for the open. $DXC, $AMRN, and $TME. I failed miserably on saying focused as a setup was generating. As the pull back on $AMRN was happening I wondered off and was looking at $TME. By the time I came back to $AMRN, I had missed my entry. Ironically, while looking $TME, I missed the short entry because I went back to $AMRN to see how the setup was doing. by the time I looked back at $TME, well you guess it I missed the entry. So it was a rough morning. I then started looking over my normal watch list and say $NVDA setting up around 1025, but just missed the entry. After that I called it a morning and decided I would come back after the President was done speaking for the day.

Well, I found $AMRN with a nice ascending pattern around the same time Thor was trading it to the short side. I was looking to take it long once it broke through 20.35. I got my entry and nice pop right away. Took a partial at 1R and then set my range order for break even and 3R along with another limit order for 2R. Eventually I got stopped out at break even before the stock decided to make it move to the high of the day. As this is my last trade in this sample set, I think I am going to look at the % I take off at 1R. Looking back over the last couple months the percentage of 1R trades is pretty high.

Sample Set Results,

S P G E E P P P P G G P P P G S P E P P

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Edited by Mike B
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November 20, 2019 -$T

It feels like an entirety since I posted a journal entry. Well I didn't fall off a cliff, just had a lot of work related items come up and cut into my time that I set aside in the evening for Journaling. I still completed my personal journal, just didn't quite have the time to post it here. I also haven't posted the yearly recap as I haven't had time to finish it. I am going to be in and out over the next couple of days as well. I think I will be able to trade maybe 4 more days in November.

Today was a good day. I had $AMRN, $T, and $AMD on my watchlist. I still can't believe $AMD is above $41. I didn't get any Orb setups, but I did find 2 crossover strategies with the PLBO on $T and $AMRN. I hesitated on the entry on $AMRN, so I missed that move to the short side; however, shortly afterwards I got an entry on $T. Once I got in my reminder on my came up to remind me I had an appointment in 15 minutes. Always wonderful getting into a trade and then realizing that you need to go. Luckily for me, I got a 1R partial and set my range order; however, with some luck also comes disappointment when you return and see the huge move on a $T. Yes it was only like .60 cents but when your risk was only .08 cents your planned R is around 8.5. 

Oh well, strategy worked, I just couldn't manage it due to commitments. 

Sample Set Results,

G 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

VIX0Zv0.png

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Mike;

I read many of your posts tonight.

My thoughts.

1) You are only willing to risk a few cents.  This requires perfect timing, entry, and to an extent knowing the future.

2) I see you got in on T today.  Are you willing to consider stocks not on your list?  For example, TGT had a nice move.

3) What do you prefer?  Intraday trend trading such as TGT.  Or volatility scalping such as MO, CORT. 

4) I see in most of your videos you are adding AMD to your watch list.  This is a violation of your process.  Follow your process of focus on stocks with a catalyst.  AMD rarely has a catalyst.

5) If the thought of losing money is too stressful then you might consider selling put credit spreads 45 to 60 days in the future on massive down days in the S&P500 or a favorite stock of the market (not yours).

 

Take care.

Edited by Aaron Darnell
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9 hours ago, Aaron Darnell said:

Mike;

I read many of your posts tonight.

My thoughts.

1) You are only willing to risk a few cents.  This requires perfect timing, entry, and to an extent knowing the future.

2) I see you got in on T today.  Are you willing to consider stocks not on your list?  For example, TGT had a nice move.

3) What do you prefer?  Intraday trend trading such as TGT.  Or volatility scalping such as MO, CRT. 

4) If the thought of losing money is too stressful then you might consider selling put credit spreads 45 to 60 days in the future on massive down days in the S&P500 or a favorite stock of the market (not yours).

Take care.

Hey Aaron, awesome analysis, I love feedback from traders as it helps me see my blind spots.

1) I would definitely agree with you, when I began trading I was focused on how much cents I was willing to risk and it was small. Since January when I started using Kyles hotkeys, I don't worry anymore about what the actual dollar amount per share is that I risk, because I have my hotkey's set to .33% of my account per trade or 3 trades within a day for ~1% of my account.

2) At the open I have a very defined set of criteria that I select stocks for my Orb strategies. This has been based of my performance and what I do well at. I am not comfortable with stocks above $50 at the open, they just move to much for me. After 30 minutes, I switch my layout and watch the same 9 different stocks daily along with 3 of the best stocks on the gappers that did a good move at the open. ($AMD, $MU, $JD, $SQ, $ROKU, $MSFT, $QCOM, $AAPL, and $NVDA). 

3) I have 3 strategies I trade. 5 and 15 min Orbs that I have been doing for a year and within the last couple of months I have been working on a new afternoon strategy that involves the 9/20 crossing the 50. It did not work well in September because I did not have a good entry point identified and would get chopped up a lot; However, when I was watching Thor's Video on PLBO, I noticed my moving average crossover strategy was appearing quite often before his entry on the PLBO. So, I went back and did some analysis on my trades and found that the more often than not the ones that did work had a very similar setup to Thor's PLBO and the ones that I got stopped out on didn't. Therefore, I have layered Thor's PLBO strategy over mine and I just got done testing it in Sim. $T was the first live trade I intentionally used it on. 

That was a long way of saying I scalp at the open and like trend trading after the market has been open for 30 minutes. 

4) When I post my yearly recap you see that it not the money that is my issue; rather, it is I just don't like to be wrong. 😁

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November 21, 2019 -$AMD

I had some good trading today, just misplaced my stop on $AMD, which caused me not get the 1R move that I should have gotten before getting stopped out. There was nothing wrong with the setup or the entry, just that I put the stop too high. It should have been about .05 cents lower, which would have gotten me the 1R partial and even a 2R partial. Oh well learning moment.

I got out of the trade, when the "asks" started stacking up. The stock eventually went to 39.65 before coming back to my entry point.

Sample Set Results,

G 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

 

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Mike;

Here are my comments on AMD.

If you don't want comments let me know.

I'm hoping Abiel can start uploading my videos to youtube which will give you a chance to comment on my trades also.

AMD Close Trade Review Analysis.PNG

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4 hours ago, Aaron Darnell said:

Mike;

Here are my comments on AMD.

 

I always welcome comments, this is how we all learn and what makes this community great. 

What study do you have on your chart?

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The study is a fibonacci retracement.  I only added this to the chart for illustrative purposes.  The R1, R2, R3 are text boxes that I added.

If I was looking for a power hour scalp I'd look to stocks that are strong in 1 direction for the entire day.  For example CAT on the long side or PDD on the short side.  The key is to focus on stocks that trended intraday.  Life is to short to waste it on scalping chop.

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Mike,

Here is a trade I made on SPLK today.  I botched my order.  My order was set to buy 100 shares.  As I clicked cancel I got filled on 5 of the 100.  This caused a little confusion on my part, once understood, I focused on the target.  I decided to not add at any point and let price move to my target.  Given the small share size there was no stress.

My best trades are usually made after the market is open for about 1 to 2 hours.

 

SPLK Long Review.PNG

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November 27, 2019 -$UAA

So I had a little mini vacation to Las Vegas, well actually it was more work than vacation, but it still prevented me from being able to trade for the last three days. I felt great coming into today, but also realized that it was the day before Thanksgiving and that I was very eager to trade. I even mentioned to myself to hold off and make sure the setup is valid and not to anticipate the market and enter early. Well I failed miserably at that and took a trade without a good setup. 

The pattern was there, but none of the other indicators such as level 2, moving averages, etc were there. Hints why upon the entry, I thought to myself why did take this entry. Shortly afterwards I was stopped out. I chalked it up to rust and the need to get a trade in. Overall happily with the discipline on stopping out and not rushing back into another trade. 

After this trade, I packed it up and started the long drive home.

Overall, proper execution on bad analysis. I would rather get stopped out on a trade like this then make money and re-enforce a bad habit.

Sample Set Results,

G  4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

cK3P4d6.png

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