I'm profitable, now what?

[Trader Joe 0]

I'm looking for some advice/direction.  I've been practicing in sim for 3 months now, and I am to the point of being green consistently (22 of the last 24 trading days have been profitable).  I trade using pivots, and I average 4 trades a day.  My issue is the risk/return of the green trades.  Of my last 50 trades, only 7 have made the 2r profit target.  None have made 3r+.  The rest I usually take a small partial when I hit 1r and then they go back against me and stop out at break even.  I've studied my journal, looked at my stats, checked my spreadsheets, and none of them point to anything concrete that I am doing "wrong" per say.  My only speculation at this point is that my stop loss is too large to allow a 2r move and I need to tighten up my entries.  Being new to all of this though, I don't know what I don't know.  

 

Can anyone make a recommendation as to what I might need to do to continue improving my trades?  Any books I should read, videos I should watch, or practice/trading exercises I could do?  Is there a statistic or factor I am missing that I could start logging or could look back through my journals for?  Am I just taking the wrong trades?  If anyone experienced something similar when you were learning to trade, what helped you to break through that barrier and take your trading up a notch?  

 

Thanks in advance for any advice that anyone has.   Thoughts, ideas, pointers, WAGs, constructive criticism, I'll take it.  

[Trader Joe 0]

Peter,

I have been looking for a trading buddy or small group, but I have to admit I'm a bit picky.  I've jumped into professional relationships like that too quickly before, only to find out later that it wasn't a good fit as one party or the other wasn't as serious about the task at hand.  I want to be sure it's beneficial to all parties involved, as this is something that is extremely important to me and that I will be doing for a long time.  You are absolutely correct though that I should take advantage of Aiman's trade review sessions.  I will start doing that.

 

I am only averaging about 4r a week in profit total, so less than 1r per day after 4 trades.  It's better than when I started where every day was red, but obviously nowhere near where it needs to be.  I attribute this to how most of my trades go green to the point where I get a small partial (20%), then they come back and stop out at my break even.  While it's a green trade, 0.2r per trade is a slow way to make a living.  Add in the occasional loss of 1r, and my p&l movement is somewhere around the speed of a napping sloth.

 

When I exit a trade, yes it is per my plan.  My plan is that once I enter a trade, I take my first partial at 1r and move my stop to break even.  Most of the time, this is where my trades are exited automatically as the price returns back towards my entry.  The trades that have gone further or been better, I exit when there are certain indications on the l2 (large orders against me), or when the candles break the 20ma on the 1 min chart moving against me.  The reason I feel it is not good enough is because while I am consistently "green", my p&l has only gone up enough to buy a cup of coffee.  I am happy with the progress I have made so far, and I have made that progress I believe by focusing on the process (tons of classes in the education center, journal review, reading the recommended books...).  I feel like my progress so far is good.  However, like I've heard said in the chatroom many times, your p&l will never lie to you.  Mine is telling me that I've gone from terrible to bad, and then from bad to ok.  Now I would like to go from ok to decent, with the end goal of one day being good (if that makes sense?).  

 

Thank you for taking the time to respond, I sincerely appreciate it.  

[Bailey Nevener 83]

On 6/15/2021 at 4:23 PM, Trader Joe said:

Of my last 50 trades, only 7 have made the 2r profit target.

Joe,

This statement is extremely revealing.  I also had this same issue for quite some time until I fixed how I placed stops.  If you join me at the open when I’m trading for one of these mornings at https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCkK2SWIsYGuWm1gtlbD2C4w or on Twitch I can show you how I got over this.  Mainly it involves sacrificing accuracy for a better risk to reward.  If you would like an exact answer it would be much easier to show you in real time.  

Good luck trading,

Bailey Nevener

[Bailey Nevener 83]

14 minutes ago, peterB said:

no offense Bailey but from what i have seen on your videos you need much more help than he does

Brother lol.  I turned my 3k account into 37k.  And I just turned my girlfriends account of 8k into 12k in the last 3 months.  I am consistently profitable.  Sorry to disappoint you.  This individual that I am talking to on this forum can learn from me because they said they are struggling with consistency.  I am not.  You are.

I know you are butthurt because I found out that you’ve literally been on an increasing losing streak for the past couple of months.  I literally traded myself out of debt.  

I don’t know how old you are, but I feel like I’m back in high school.  You know before I became a special operator in the US Navy as an aerial gunner and Helicopter Rescue Swimmer.  

I don’t know what you were doing when you were my age, but hate to say it, you are behind me (in profitability) just like you were probably behind me in achievement when I turned 21.  And 25.  You fired the shots, but you can’t back it up.  Stay in your lane.

You literally went from losing money “less and less” every month to losing “more and more”.  I am already consistent with increasing consistency!  Thank God because hateful people like you wish I was just as pathetic as you so you could be “right” about another thing.  

Fortunately for me, your desire to be right doesn’t make you any more profitable. 

Honestly you saying “no offense” just to insult me, and to be blatantly wrong (about yet another thing) is so indicative of your developing complex of insanity.

Great job distancing yourself from profitable traders though, I can see it’s working out great so far!

Edited June 17, 2021 by Bailey Nevener

[Bailey Nevener 83]

Just now, peterB said:

no i really meant it and i felt sorry for you but now i am not Hopefully for Trader Joe it is useful information what you just wrote.

Why would you feel sorry for me if I am profitable?  You take any power play you can get to make yourself feel better.  You are such a rude person.  And unprofitable.  Big thing to remember is that you are unprofitable.  

Yes so, once again, since I am profitable, and you are not, the person I originally replied to with useful information and a follow on source will be able to contact me to resolve their problem.  

What’s ironic is, they are making money and you are not!

I don’t feel sorry for you.  Your bad attitude deserves the lack of competency that you display.  
Once again, you act like an ill tempered child.  

When I finished my second deployment in South China Sea I’m sure you were writing that next angry blog post.  So looks like I’m getting better an better, and you are still rotten.  Go figure.

[Bailey Nevener 83]

57 minutes ago, peterB said:

from the videos it looks like you are failing and full of bullshit talk. now if you say you made it ok, good for you.

LOL the week before this one is in a simulator account during the week of finals!!  

You know the finals I am taking because I was honorably discharged from the Navy, so I’m using my GI Bill to get a degree in Computer Science.
 

If you looked for more than 10 seconds at my videos the stats are literally there showing that I make money significantly more, like mathematically indisputably more, than I lose money.  I am profitable.  You are not.  

 

You are too lazy to literally watch more than 1 video that doesn’t confirm your bias.  

 

What you are looking at is June, which once again, was leading up to finals so I barely traded.  

Every single day I was up a large amount before hitting max loss. Which I noted was because I was getting cocky from how much consistency I was showing.

Something tells me that’s what you are struggling with confirmation bias in trading as well.

 

Too bad you can’t TLDR trading consistency. 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Bailey Nevener

[Bailey Nevener 83]

Bullshit talk is for people who've never been somebody.

 

Case and point today and yesterday. 

I already made up all of the "losses" from last week.

There's a saying in the Navy, namely the Special Operator community.

"Get it right the first time."

Edited June 17, 2021 by Bailey Nevener

[Rob C 826]

On 6/16/2021 at 4:18 PM, Trader Joe said:

Peter,

I have been looking for a trading buddy or small group, but I have to admit I'm a bit picky.  I've jumped into professional relationships like that too quickly before, only to find out later that it wasn't a good fit as one party or the other wasn't as serious about the task at hand.  I want to be sure it's beneficial to all parties involved, as this is something that is extremely important to me and that I will be doing for a long time.  You are absolutely correct though that I should take advantage of Aiman's trade review sessions.  I will start doing that.

 

I am only averaging about 4r a week in profit total, so less than 1r per day after 4 trades.  It's better than when I started where every day was red, but obviously nowhere near where it needs to be.  I attribute this to how most of my trades go green to the point where I get a small partial (20%), then they come back and stop out at my break even.  While it's a green trade, 0.2r per trade is a slow way to make a living.  Add in the occasional loss of 1r, and my p&l movement is somewhere around the speed of a napping sloth.

 

When I exit a trade, yes it is per my plan.  My plan is that once I enter a trade, I take my first partial at 1r and move my stop to break even.  Most of the time, this is where my trades are exited automatically as the price returns back towards my entry.  The trades that have gone further or been better, I exit when there are certain indications on the l2 (large orders against me), or when the candles break the 20ma on the 1 min chart moving against me.  The reason I feel it is not good enough is because while I am consistently "green", my p&l has only gone up enough to buy a cup of coffee.  I am happy with the progress I have made so far, and I have made that progress I believe by focusing on the process (tons of classes in the education center, journal review, reading the recommended books...).  I feel like my progress so far is good.  However, like I've heard said in the chatroom many times, your p&l will never lie to you.  Mine is telling me that I've gone from terrible to bad, and then from bad to ok.  Now I would like to go from ok to decent, with the end goal of one day being good (if that makes sense?).  

 

Thank you for taking the time to respond, I sincerely appreciate it.  

Hi Trader Joe,

I agree that you are doing very well. It took me over a year before I reached 12R a month. I know by watching BBT chat/webinars that it seems you need a high R/month to make a living. But its more about consistency. I use to hear Andrew say that if you can consistently make $5 a month the rest is just position sizing. Also, the classes outside of BBT, that I take (DTA and VKT) push consistency well over R/month.

Essentially, I am saying the same thing as Peter B where you might have already succeeded and the rest is just position sizing. Of course we all should continuously optimize and adapt, but first you should determine if your systems are good enough already.

Below is the easy way to get a ballpark of how your systems are doing. This analysis should be performed on each system (setup) separately. If you calculate >0.3 your already gold and its time just to increase your position size. Essentially, you want to aim for 2% of your account size. There are websites that will help you determine the optimal position size but for >0.3 they will calculate a number over 2%. Since I highly recommend not going over 2%, that is a number to shoot for. Since your systems are only 3 months old I would probably stop at 1% account size until your systems are tested over multiple market conditions (bull/bear/choppy).

To determine if the system you use is effective take the mean of the data set (in R) of the profit per trade and divide by the standard deviation (also in R units). Then use this table.

R/sig	Quality
0.16-.19	Poor but tradable
.2-.24	Average
.25-.29	Good
.30-.5	Excellent
.5-.69	Super
.7-	Holy Grail

[Rob C 826]

On 6/17/2021 at 4:38 AM, Bailey Nevener said:

 

You know the finals I am taking because I was honorably discharged from the Navy, so I’m using my GI Bill to get a degree in Computer Science.
 

Cool you are getting a Comp Sci degree. Do you think you would use it and try your hand at Algo trading?

[Bailey Nevener 83]

49 minutes ago, Rob C said:

Cool you are getting a Comp Sci degree. Do you think you would use it and try your hand at Algo trading?

Yes actually that's what I've been working on!

[Trader Joe 0]

54 minutes ago, Rob C said:

Hi Trader Joe,

I agree that you are doing very well. It took me over a year before I reached 12R a month. I know by watching BBT chat/webinars that it seems you need a high R/month to make a living. But its more about consistency. I use to hear Andrew say that if you can consistently make $5 a month the rest is just position sizing. Also, the classes outside of BBT, that I take (DTA and VKT) push consistency well over R/month.

Essentially, I am saying the same thing as Peter B where you might have already succeeded and the rest is just position sizing. Of course we all should continuously optimize and adapt, but first you should determine if your systems are good enough already.

Below is the easy way to get a ballpark of how your systems are doing. This analysis should be performed on each system (setup) separately. If you calculate >0.3 your already gold and its time just to increase your position size. Essentially, you want to aim for 2% of your account size. There are websites that will help you determine the optimal position size but for >0.3 they will calculate a number over 2%. Since I highly recommend not going over 2%, that is a number to shoot for. Since your systems are only 3 months old I would probably stop at 1% account size until your systems are tested over multiple market conditions (bull/bear/choppy).

To determine if the system you use is effective take the mean of the data set (in R) of the profit per trade and divide by the standard deviation (also in R units). Then use this table.

R/sig	Quality
0.16-.19	Poor but tradable
.2-.24	Average
.25-.29	Good
.30-.5	Excellent
.5-.69	Super
.7-	Holy Grail

Rob,

I appreciate the encouraging words.  I ran the numbers you advised and I am coming up with .17, so not exactly knocking it out of the park.  Judging by what I've read, I believe the best course of action for me at this point is to continue practicing in sim with a focus on tightening up my setups, and to find a good trading buddy/group.  Oh, also to take advantage of Aiman's trade reviews like Peter suggested.  

I wish I could have done the trading boot camp, but due to some outside factors it wasn't feasible for me this time around.  I am strongly considering entering the boot camp the next time it comes around.  I looked at DTA's website after you mentioned it, and I can't find anything about pricing anywhere.  Would you mind sharing any info about your thoughts on their pricing, curriculum and style of education?

Thank you.

[Rob C 826]

22 hours ago, Trader Joe said:

Rob,

I appreciate the encouraging words.  I ran the numbers you advised and I am coming up with .17, so not exactly knocking it out of the park.  Judging by what I've read, I believe the best course of action for me at this point is to continue practicing in sim with a focus on tightening up my setups, and to find a good trading buddy/group.  Oh, also to take advantage of Aiman's trade reviews like Peter suggested.  

I wish I could have done the trading boot camp, but due to some outside factors it wasn't feasible for me this time around.  I am strongly considering entering the boot camp the next time it comes around.  I looked at DTA's website after you mentioned it, and I can't find anything about pricing anywhere.  Would you mind sharing any info about your thoughts on their pricing, curriculum and style of education?

Thank you.

First, DTA teaches day trading of Futures. So if you want to trade equities, I would not recommend it. Somewhere between my internship at an oil exploration company (which is odd since I am environmentalist) and going to an Ag school for graduate studies, I became a big commodities fan. Plus, Futures give me the option to trade off hours. The Asian markets trade in the evening in my time zone and combined are as large as the NYSE. With a full time job that will be helpful. Some people like that there is no PDT rule and high margin with Futures. Also, there is not as much as an issue getting a short filled like in equities. Also US taxes are better with Futures.

As for DTA, the jury is still out for me even though I have been with them for 17 months. I arrived at the exact time they were going through a major overhaul and I guess I got stuck in some strange limbo. Some of the coaches are excellent and some are not. The first year is pricey, than not so bad afterwards. It is 3k for the first 3 months then 7k for the rest of the first year. It comes with a week long seminar that I did not receive due to the pandemic. After the 1st year it is 2k for the next year. Its pricey but I really wanted mentorship. So at DTA every single one of you trades can be reviewed by one of the coaches. The classes and daily recaps are very good as well. 

If the price doesn't already deter you I can go into more details about DTA.

Rob C

[Rob C 826]

23 hours ago, Bailey Nevener said:

Yes actually that's what I've been working on!

I was going to try it as well. I have some experience in computer modeling. I plane to start learning in July but with the Ninjatrader algo systems since I trade more with the Futures. May I ask which platform you use? IBKR API?

[Bailey Nevener 83]

10 hours ago, Rob C said:

I was going to try it as well. I have some experience in computer modeling. I plane to start learning in July but with the Ninjatrader algo systems since I trade more with the Futures. May I ask which platform you use? IBKR API?

Yes that is correct.  I have literally just started though, so I’m not useful yet. 

[Rob C 826]

19 hours ago, Bailey Nevener said:

Yes that is correct.  I have literally just started though, so I’m not useful yet. 

If you find a useful book/video/Udemy could you let me know the title? I read two books, with good reviews, and they were both duds. So I will start with IBs video library and go from there.