Thunder dome

[Adam Lewis 64]

6 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

but basically F'ed it up

It's great to screw up and not lose real money! 😄 What happened with the hot keys? Just hit the wrong one? 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

7 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

oks like you got an ABCD pattern going on there, so that strengthens your position, nice work.

Thank you, I appreciate it. Also I really like how precise your entries are especially when it comes to ABCD patterns. The hotkey error was a bummer, but you had GREAT intentions. II liked how you were able to recognize the pattern. Do you take 25% out on every partial or does it vary?

[Michael Sanchez 53]

1 hour ago, Adam Lewis said:

Where do I trade off? Get in early with a tight stop, better R:R but a higher chance of hitting the stop... or get in late with a much bigger stop, a much worse R:R (basically 1R if you go in later?), but then a stronger confirmation? I sort of prefer the first one, but I then need to accept there will be many trades that don't come off or where I have to stop out.

I also think that you should get in a little early. I feel like the strategy you are using requires a lot of resilience (which you have). If you ask me I think you should keep doing what you are doing some trades will not go your way, but I feel like the more you do it the more you will be able to recognize an A+ setups. If that makes any sense. Great trade! I love seeing your strategy because it is so intimidating.

[MattfromNZ 55]

2 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

For me the debate here is where you've marked 'better entry' on the chart. In hindsight sure, it looks like a better entry, but at the time you've got a right to wait for confirmation before entering. An ABCD, really the 'C' is at the break of the consolidation, right? Certainly on the 5 minute chart that's where you got in, so it still wasn't a bad entry. That said, I can appreciate that having seen a double top already at C might also have been an entry signal. Do you have a strong entry criteria for ABCDs? There are arguments both ways I think. 

No, you have a good point, I agree that a higher entry may have been more risky. However in my opinion we were kind of already in an ABCD pattern and there was sideways consolidation and a rejection of the 20ma on the 1min chart. Confirmation would have been the break of the 9ma after rejection of the 20ma. Everything was trending down, and this supported the bigger picture of the ABCD pattern on the 5min chart.

I don't currently have super strong criteria for entry, but a trend must be supported on multiple timeframes, cant be too extended, and generally is supported by a technical indicator such as 9/20ma. There definitely seems to be an art to ABCD's rather than a science.

[MattfromNZ 55]

2 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

It's great to screw up and not lose real money! 😄 What happened with the hot keys? Just hit the wrong one? 

Dude I dunno, I got confused between long and short, and I went the wrong way more than once. What's worse is that I use the hot buttons!

[MattfromNZ 55]

2 hours ago, Michael Sanchez said:

Thank you, I appreciate it. Also I really like how precise your entries are especially when it comes to ABCD patterns. The hotkey error was a bummer, but you had GREAT intentions. II liked how you were able to recognize the pattern. Do you take 25% out on every partial or does it vary?

I've been taking 25% lately, but I am still working out my partialling system

[MattfromNZ 55]

3 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock:  FCEL

Strategy: Fallen Angel

Why did you take the trade?: You'll see I made a mess finding the entry here. The problem I have with the fallen angel strategy (and might always have?) is that there's a certain amount of knife catching going on, and you need to keep stops so tight lest you get caught in a continuation of the flush that made you interested in the position to begin with. I made two attempts to enter and got stopped out tight before my third entry finally worked out. I don't see what else I can do other than get out of the position at the moment I see further weakness. The third entry worked out. However I'd already by this point given back a fair bit with the two failed entries and the sum of the three entries was ultimately red. Looking back at the tape there was a HUGE bid at 19.50 that I've only noticed now as I play the recording back. If I'd seen it at the time perhaps I'd have held on before stopping out the first two times given the support that bid should have provided. Alas, I didn't.

For me, your trade highlights the difficulty of trading the open. Awesome work though man, you still managed it like a boss!

Having read Andrew's trade book for 1min ORB, he mentions that if there is a large bid/ask (depending on whether it's break up or down) he doesn't take the trade. I imagine falling angel could be similar.

Keep up the good work!

[MattfromNZ 55]

I really fucked up the execution on this trade, and in my stupid conviction I got stopped out 3 times! Basically my stoplosses were too much in the choppy range. For me to have it out of the range would have lead to poor risk / reward. I should have been paying more attention to the 5min chart for a possible entry. Of other note is that the 60min chart does not support a downwards trend, making this a little risky.

[MattfromNZ 55]

This trade was stupid cause I entered and re-entered without a defined strategy. First I went long with $20 risk, stopped out -$23.68. I think my thinking was that this was a just a pullback on an ABCD. Given that it would have been a type C (parabolic pullback) I should have waited for a second bounce and more confirmation. The 60min chart did support a trend upwards.

I then went short with $20 risk and stoploss at VWAP and ended up with +$47.94. Maybe this is a lightning bolt pattern? I haven't looked into those yet.

[Adam Lewis 64]

Stock: CCIV

Strategy: Fallen angel

Why did you take the trade?: The set up presented fairly cleanly, all of my criteria were met: stock gapping up strong, then a sell off so extreme it represents irrationality, finding a support level and then reversing. I waited until it held the support level before entering, I didn't rush into this. This set up is all I trade at the moment. I was already having a strong green day from a previous trade and this made me much more defensive, hence I think I partialled out of this both too quickly and then with a dose of ROMO, partialed the rest too slowly! The first partial was too quick, the second partial was then taken after seeing a strong rejection of VWAP and deciding to just bank the profit and move on. Really it should be the other way around, a partial at VWAP then the rest out at break even. But it's easy with hindsight...

Long/Short: Long

Entry: 18.18

Risk: 18c 

S/L: 18.00(basically the bottom of the entry candle, I'd have been out of the position, I wouldn't wait for it to reach that support level. If it hits the support and holds I can always go back in again for another pop but pretty much any red on the P/L ticker would have pushed me out of this position).

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quite calm, but with a feeling I screwed up the partials. Nonetheless I was pleased to have again had the discipline to wait for my set up. I didn't trade again after this. 

What did you do well?:  Waited for my set up, waited for confirmation of support before entering.

What can you improve on?: Partialling better to maximise profits. Easy with hindsight. Also later in the session, my fingers turned to ice as I missed two excellent set ups, not wanting to risk my nice green day. One entry was an absolute A+ set up, but I hesitated and missed it. I hope this gets better with time and experience.

Questions?: Nothing new at the moment. 

[Adam Lewis 64]

8 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

This trade was stupid cause I entered and re-entered without a defined strategy. First I went long with $20 risk, stopped out -$23.68. I think my thinking was that this was a just a pullback on an ABCD. Given that it would have been a type C (parabolic pullback) I should have waited for a second bounce and more confirmation. The 60min chart did support a trend upwards.

I then went short with $20 risk and stoploss at VWAP and ended up with +$47.94. Maybe this is a lightning bolt pattern? I haven't looked into those yet.

Well done for flipping and going short when you saw the trend developing in that direction on the 1 min chart.

I'm interested in how you use the different time frames. Do you have one time frame you watch in particular for set ups with your strategy, and then use other time frames for confirmation / additional information? Or is it more a blend or them all together? Or something you've not really considered before? The point where you first stopped out on the 1 minute chart would make a good short ABCD entry on a 1 min chart, but then you'd need to be prioritising the 1 minute chart to find set ups. There's nothing wrong with this (I use 1 minute charts almost exclusively at the open, given the volatility), but I wonder how far this is considered in your strategy. The other charts here for me don't yet provide much additional help. 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

Stock: DAL

Strategy: ABCD

Why did you take the trade?: I took this trade because I saw that the stock was consolidating and it was unable to break the 5min 9ema. I got into the trade a little too early but I had a great R/R so I was not stopped out. The stock was also strong at the open due to earnings.

Long/Short: LONG

Entry: 42.58

Risk: .88 cents

S/L: 71.70

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Great this was an A+ setup

What did you do well?: Recognizing my pattern and executing the trade with a proper risk to reward. 

What can you improve on?: I got out a little earlier than expected.  While I got 2.6R I could have had 3R

 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

1 hour ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock: CCIV

Strategy: Fallen angel

Why did you take the trade?: The set up presented fairly cleanly, all of my criteria were met: stock gapping up strong, then a sell off so extreme it represents irrationality, finding a support level and then reversing. I waited until it held the support level before entering, I didn't rush into this. This set up is all I trade at the moment. I was already having a strong green day from a previous trade and this made me much more defensive, hence I think I partialled out of this both too quickly and then with a dose of ROMO, partialed the rest too slowly! The first partial was too quick, the second partial was then taken after seeing a strong rejection of VWAP and deciding to just bank the profit and move on. Really it should be the other way around, a partial at VWAP then the rest out at break even. But it's easy with hindsight...

Long/Short: Long

Entry: 18.18

Risk: 18c 

S/L: 18.00(basically the bottom of the entry candle, I'd have been out of the position, I wouldn't wait for it to reach that support level. If it hits the support and holds I can always go back in again for another pop but pretty much any red on the P/L ticker would have pushed me out of this position).

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quite calm, but with a feeling I screwed up the partials. Nonetheless I was pleased to have again had the discipline to wait for my set up. I didn't trade again after this. 

What did you do well?:  Waited for my set up, waited for confirmation of support before entering.

What can you improve on?: Partialling better to maximise profits. Easy with hindsight. Also later in the session, my fingers turned to ice as I missed two excellent set ups, not wanting to risk my nice green day. One entry was an absolute A+ set up, but I hesitated and missed it. I hope this gets better with time and experience.

Questions?: Nothing new at the moment. 

Great trade man!!! I would have probably partialed a little soon as well especially at the open. Your entry was very good and you had a great stop-loss. Great work !!!

[MattfromNZ 55]

12 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock: CCIV

Strategy: Fallen angel

So this trade looks a little different than the other ones youve showed up, as in it goes up after the open, before it drops down, and then back up. Is this still a fallen angel or would it be a rising devil? Sorry im still not familiar with these trades, but it looks like the better move might have to take it short from the top.

Shame about the partials, maybe you need some stronger rules as to how you take them. How many R's did you make?

[MattfromNZ 55]

11 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Well done for flipping and going short when you saw the trend developing in that direction on the 1 min chart.

I'm interested in how you use the different time frames. Do you have one time frame you watch in particular for set ups with your strategy, and then use other time frames for confirmation / additional information? Or is it more a blend or them all together? Or something you've not really considered before? The point where you first stopped out on the 1 minute chart would make a good short ABCD entry on a 1 min chart, but then you'd need to be prioritising the 1 minute chart to find set ups. There's nothing wrong with this (I use 1 minute charts almost exclusively at the open, given the volatility), but I wonder how far this is considered in your strategy. The other charts here for me don't yet provide much additional help. 

I have been waiting 5mins after the open to make a trade, I just watch until then. My earliest trades are 5min ORB, which you need a 5min chart to determine the pattern, and a 1min chart to determine your entry and better see the immediate price action. Until around 10am the 1min chart can be used for ABCD patterns, but later than that the 5min chart is better for identifying those patterns. Having both the 1min and 5min is a good combo. I also use the 60min chart to help identify longer trends in stock  price.