Thunder dome

[Adam Lewis 64]

10 hours ago, A_aron said:

Question?

Could this have been a fallen angle play also right at the open? [ 1^st and 2^nd candle on the 1 min chart]

For me, no. As much as the price did drop on that first candle I don't think it flushed in the way I'd like to see for a fallen angel strategy. This is more like a 1m ORB to the long side. The first minute is such a random event, I almost always step back to see which way things are moving before I go in. 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

Stock: NIO

Strategy: ABCD

Why did you take the trade?: I took the trade because I saw a nice ABCD pattern Type A on the 15 minute chart. This was an A+ setup for me. I got into the trade the first time and hesitated because of my R/R. I waited for the price action to hit the 9ema on the 15min chart. Once the price action bounced off of the ema I got into the trade. As I stated I hesitated on my first trade and got right back in. I was only able to get 2.4R instead of 3R because I had to leave for work. If you noticed I do not partial so my runs do not have to be too long to be profitable. 

Long/Short: LONG

Entry: 62.65

Risk: 15 cents 

S/L:62.50

How did you feel after taking the trade?: I felt great. I was upset that I needed to go to work, but I am happy that I was able to recognize my setup and get back into the trade with a great R/R

What did you do well?:  Recognizing my pattern and resiliency

What can you improve on?: Be late to work I have priorities lol

Questions?: What do you guys think about this trade? Should I implement partials and let the stock run out longer or should I just get all out at 3R?

 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

On 1/11/2021 at 4:56 PM, Adam Lewis said:

Date: 11 January

Stock: NIO

Strategy: Fallen Angel 

Why did you take the trade?: This is again a strategy I am currently looking for. With my watchlist now I'll watch in the first 5 mins for trades setting up like this, and with a 6 x stock watchlist there are usually one or two (on Friday, actually, all six set up like this! But I took NIO). I took three partials, one at 2R, another at VWAP, and sold the remaining shares after another continuation up. 

Long/Short: Long.

Entry: 56.70

Risk: 15c

S/L: 56.55 (loss of a daily level)

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Pretty good, because this is exactly what I'm trying to do! For the first time in my (short) life as a trader I feel like I actually have a plan! I am going into the open watching for very specific things, and I am learning to react well when I see them.

What did you do well?: Waited for an entry signal after seeing a double bottom off a support level.

What can you improve on?: I always think I need a better partialing strategy. I like the VWAP partial, but I am still trading small size - there comes a point where partialing combined with a 50c commission isn't cost effective! I do 50% partials usually, should I be partialing 25%, 50% and then remainder? This is a blind spot right now.

Questions?: The hardest thing with this set up is always going to finding the bottom and keeping stops tight. There is an element of knife catching going on! The truth is these stocks don't always reverse. I've seen them before just drop and then go sideways. 

WOW, this is one of the cleanest entries I have ever seen. This is such an intimidating strategy for me man. I am really glad it is working out for you!

[Michael Sanchez 53]

21 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Hello Michael - a quick question with both this and the MARA trade above it. You don't seem to be partialling out at the moment. Is there a reason why not? At one point your NIO trade seems to have hit almost $2 a share profit and yet you didn't begin to lock in profits. Are you waiting to hit a fixed R before selling? In the first 30 mins of the market stocks will move in a very broad range, I find, and to be profitable you might want to consider setting some partial targets on your way up. Either way both of these trades were very well put together, the entries were excellent. I'd now be looking at exits, in the case of NIO partialing on the way up and in the case of MARA having that exit as a partial leaving some shares to ride on up.

Great question! Honestly, I do not partial because when I would partial I would find it hard to get 2R. I agree 100% I should have taken all my profits out at 2R seeing that it was the open. Quite frankly, I stray away from ORB's for that reason. However, during the day I do not partial at all I just get out at 3R or I get out when I see red flags. I have been more consistent and profitable with the hotkeys I am using. 

[MattfromNZ 55]

1 hour ago, Michael Sanchez said:

@MattfromNZI love your trading style. It is really clean and clear cut. In terms of your partials, how many do you usually take in a trade? and does it eat up your profits a lot or not really?

Thanks Michael!

The whole partial thing I'm still trying to figure out. They seem quite psychologically influenced, so my goal is to eventually work out a system that relies on rules rather than feelings. As you know it's too easy to take partials too early. It makes you feel "safer", but then you get near the end of the run and it's like, "fuck I haven't even made 2R"!

Originally I started taking partials at 10% like I saw Andrew do. I found the quantity of partials was overwhelming and I would get back to break even with half my position. Lately I've been doing 25% partials, But I'm having the opposite problem, and it definitely has eaten into my profits. I am thinking of trying a combination of 10 and 25%: The first 2 partials could be 10%: This will release some anxiety while still preserving most of the profit. Then only when I have gone over 2R am I allowed to take 25% partials.

[MattfromNZ 55]

1 hour ago, Michael Sanchez said:

Stock: NIO

Strategy: ABCD

Why did you take the trade?: I took the trade because I saw a nice ABCD pattern Type A on the 15 minute chart. This was an A+ setup for me. I got into the trade the first time and hesitated because of my R/R. I waited for the price action to hit the 9ema on the 15min chart. Once the price action bounced off of the ema I got into the trade. As I stated I hesitated on my first trade and got right back in. I was only able to get 2.4R instead of 3R because I had to leave for work. If you noticed I do not partial so my runs do not have to be too long to be profitable. 

 

I find it interesting that you don't partial, but if you are still making you profit targets then all the power to you! I want to experiment with this too, however man, it must be hard to see the price go to almost triple your profit level without capitalizing on that. What do you do if the price goes up to, lets say 1.5R, doesn't look like it will make it to 2R, then starts retreating? Do you hold your stoploss, stop out at break even, or get out early?

Oh, and nice trade! 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

18 minutes ago, MattfromNZ said:

I find it interesting that you don't partial, but if you are still making you profit targets then all the power to you! I want to experiment with this too, however man, it must be hard to see the price go to almost triple your profit level without capitalizing on that. What do you do if the price goes up to, lets say 1.5R, doesn't look like it will make it to 2R, then starts retreating? Do you hold your stoploss, stop out at break even, or get out early?

Oh, and nice trade! 

Thank you for taking the time to comment! It is funny that you mention that because I get really anxious around 1.5R and 2R but honestly I just try to trust myself. My hotkeys make it easy because it sets an automatic "range".  Essentially, the most I can lose is 1R and the most I can gain is 3R. But when the stock moves to 2R i move my S/L to break even. But if I see a, for example, double top when I am long I usually just get out. The hotkey that I use is really helpful and has made me consistently profitable. 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

Stock:  NKLA

Strategy: SCALP

Why did you take the trade?: I took this trade because I saw that NKLA was really strong. I saw a huge ASK on the lvl 2 and decided I needed to scalp this trade with a tight R/R if I wanted to get 3R out of it. I was a little worried about the the trade because NKLA was really extended. 

Long/Short: LONG

Entry:  21.89

Risk: 20 cents 

S/L: 21.69

How did you feel after taking the trade?: I felt great after the trade. I stuck to my plan and it went my way. This was a strategy that I use to implement in my first few months of trading. I guess the basics stuck with me because I was on autopilot. 

What did you do well?: Entry, R/R, and exit

What can you improve on?: This trade was really risky. May have been a great trade but I do not think I can keep it up. I need to be more resilient

Questions?: What is your take on this trade?

 

[MattfromNZ 55]

2 hours ago, Michael Sanchez said:

Stock:  NKLA

Strategy: SCALP

Why did you take the trade?: I took this trade because I saw that NKLA was really strong. I saw a huge ASK on the lvl 2 and decided I needed to scalp this trade with a tight R/R if I wanted to get 3R out of it. I was a little worried about the the trade because NKLA was really extended.

Looks like you got an ABCD pattern going on there, so that strengthens your position, nice work.

[MattfromNZ 55]

Had some fun with PLUG today. 1st trade was ABCD, $30 risk, +$29.87 

Net trade could have been profitable, but the spike was so fast and it never went back up. ABCD, $20 risk, -$24.30

Finally here is the ABCD trade I should have made on PLUG:

[MattfromNZ 55]

This could have been my trade of the day, but basically F'ed it up. 5min ORB combined with ABCD. $20 risk, +$3.38

[MattfromNZ 55]

Made 3 trades on BLDP. ABCD, $20 risk x3, -$16.44

 

[Adam Lewis 64]

Stock:  FCEL

Strategy: Fallen Angel

Why did you take the trade?: You'll see I made a mess finding the entry here. The problem I have with the fallen angel strategy (and might always have?) is that there's a certain amount of knife catching going on, and you need to keep stops so tight lest you get caught in a continuation of the flush that made you interested in the position to begin with. I made two attempts to enter and got stopped out tight before my third entry finally worked out. I don't see what else I can do other than get out of the position at the moment I see further weakness. The third entry worked out. However I'd already by this point given back a fair bit with the two failed entries and the sum of the three entries was ultimately red. Looking back at the tape there was a HUGE bid at 19.50 that I've only noticed now as I play the recording back. If I'd seen it at the time perhaps I'd have held on before stopping out the first two times given the support that bid should have provided. Alas, I didn't.

Long/Short: Long

Entry:  19.75 eventually, the first two trades similar.

Risk: 23 cents

S/L: 19.52

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quizzical. 

What did you do well?: I waited for my set up to present before entering a trade. This applies to the session as a whole which was very disciplined in this respect. I also do think I kept stops tight. Sure, this ultimately resulted in a loss, but I think longer term keeping stops tight will help me avoid much bigger losses and I shouldn't be put off just because this time I stopped out when I didn't need to. 

What can you improve on?: I guess waiting for a stronger confirmation of a reversal before going into a trade. 

Questions?: Where do I trade off? Get in early with a tight stop, better R:R but a higher chance of hitting the stop... or get in late with a much bigger stop, a much worse R:R (basically 1R if you go in later?), but then a stronger confirmation? I sort of prefer the first one, but I then need to accept there will be many trades that don't come off or where I have to stop out.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Adam Lewis
Got my bid and ask mixed up!

[Adam Lewis 64]

9 hours ago, Michael Sanchez said:

Stock:  NKLA

The ABCD on the 1 minute chart is really clean. Good work! Good thing you scalped it as well, looking at the big tail on the candle right after you got out. Well done mate!

[Adam Lewis 64]

6 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

Had some fun with PLUG today. 1st trade was ABCD, $30 risk, +$29.87 

 

For me the debate here is where you've marked 'better entry' on the chart. In hindsight sure, it looks like a better entry, but at the time you've got a right to wait for confirmation before entering. An ABCD, really the 'C' is at the break of the consolidation, right? Certainly on the 5 minute chart that's where you got in, so it still wasn't a bad entry. That said, I can appreciate that having seen a double top already at C might also have been an entry signal. Do you have a strong entry criteria for ABCDs? There are arguments both ways I think.