Thunder dome

[MattfromNZ 55]

11 hours ago, Michael Sanchez said:

 

Text book ABCD! I thought your stop out was awesome too, right at the top of the candle. You "coul.d" have stopped higher, but you might have also missed the high

[Michael Sanchez 53]

21 minutes ago, MattfromNZ said:

Text book ABCD! I thought your stop out was awesome too, right at the top of the candle. You "coul.d" have stopped higher, but you might have also missed the high

Thank you man!!! I appreciate it.

[Adam Lewis 64]

45 minutes ago, MattfromNZ said:

So this trade looks a little different than the other ones youve showed up, as in it goes up after the open, before it drops down, and then back up. Is this still a fallen angel or would it be a rising devil? Sorry im still not familiar with these trades, but it looks like the better move might have to take it short from the top.

I totally agree the better move would be to short from the top, which I do think would be a rising devil. But, at this time I only look for longs. CMEG most often doesn't have shares for short in this price range, and so rather than wobble around trying to find shortable stocks I prefer to simply focus on set ups where I can go long. The plan eventually is to move to IB where shorts are more available and then I'll learn how to short, it'll give set ups  exactly like this one. For the Rs - I guess this was 1R in the end given my eventual exit was choosing to just bank profit, but given how fast these moves happen I don't always have time to calculate Rs and targets. I'm more likely to trade the P/L - I'll have a fixed amount in mind that I'm risking, and an idea how much I want to make which is roughly 2.5 Rs. But it's far from precise, and yes in time I'd like to make it more precise.

Whilst the set up does present immediately on the open I will take them at any point in the session. The criteria is that there has been an irrational move to the downside. I should stress I'm very much a beginner with this set up and can't yet really speak with much authority, a lot of guess work is still going on! 

[A_aron 27]

Date:   1-15-21
Stock: GME
Strategy: ABCD/ 5min ORB
Long/Short: Long
Entry:  39.42
S/L:  38.91
Risk:  0.51

Plan of attack:
Take profits at 2R or more.
Why did you take the trade?:
I saw two things.
1) 5 min chart showed breakout
2) 1 min chart showed ABCD pattern currently in consolidation B-C.

 How did you feel after taking the trade?:
Hesitant. I have a hard time tell the difference b/t consolidation and topping/bottoming out. Especially since the 5 min candle prior was an indecision candle I knew it go either way. But that can happen in any trade.
  What did you do well?:
-Exiting at my profit targets.
 What can you improve on?:
Understand the difference b/t consolidation and topping/bottoming out.

 Chart: 1min,5min,15min

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by A_aron

[MattfromNZ 55]

1 hour ago, A_aron said:

Date:   1-15-21
Stock: GME
Strategy: ABCD/ 5min ORB

Yeah man, this was a solid trade right here. ORB backed with an ABCD, it doesn't get much better!

[MattfromNZ 55]

I had a couple of solid ABCD's today:

First was CCIV, $20 risk, +$40.95. Missed out on a huge move after pullback. The stock shot up to $20.70 when trading was halted for 5mins. After the halt, trading got a little crazy, but there were still opportunities to exit at over $20.

Next was PLUG. $75 risk, +$94.12. This stock was on SSR, so that fucked things up for me, but still happy with it apart from that:

[MattfromNZ 55]

On APHA made a  random trade at the open thismorning just for fun, not really any strategy. Then I attempted a 5min ORB without the best setup really. And finally on the same stock I attempted a VWAP bounce, based on a strategy that I learned from watching Peter's VWAP webinar yesterday. This unfortunately didn't go my way and I was stopped out. Got no idea if this was a good setup for strategy or not. So, 3 trades, 3x$20 risk, -$9.16.

[MattfromNZ 55]

An afternoon ABCD, with a stupid trade at the end to finish off the week! $20 risk, +$42.80, -$15.93 (+$26.87 combined):

[Adam Lewis 64]

Stock: TLRY

Strategy: Fallen angel

Result: Loss, 0.75R

Long/Short: Long

Entry: 20.35

Risk: 15c

S/L: 20.20

Why did you take the trade, and what happened?: The price action showed signs of a reversal. I was watching for a strong move back to the long side. After an initial indecisive opening 2 minutes TLRY sold off heavily dropping a whole dollar in three minutes. It then found support, hovering at around 20.30, and I prepared to enter. I went long as it began to rise, only to then get stopped out very quickly. I had to get out, staring down the risk of being caught in a further flush if I didn't. The frustrating thing of course is that the stock did then reverse and sure enough retraced back to VWAP and beyond. This is the critical weakness of this strategy - you need to keep stops tight, and there will be times when this happens, getting you stopped out before the trade moves your way. I need to learn to deal with this, yesterday I really didn't. 

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Very frustrated. This was the second losing trade of the session, the second time this set up had failed, and put me well into the red. Seeing the movement then pop up and knowing I'd have been several Rs in profit if I'd waited 10 more seconds to enter hardly helped. On reflection, I think I actually did everything right! My entry was fine, coming after support and a 1min double bottom; my exit was correct, I couldn't sit through a flush and worse behaviour would be holding onto a flushing stock in the hope it'll pop back up. The thing I did wrong here was to continue trading after a loss which clearly slammed into my psychology. I went on to double my losses by revenge trading and losing my discipline. 

What did you do well?:  The entry and stop loss were both correct. I've no problem with those. The set up made sense, all criteria were met (a stock strong green on the day, flushed below VWAP, finding and holding a support level). Maybe not A+, but certainly an A, and I expect given the same circumstances I'd enter this position again. It's what happened after that was the issue and is the major point to learn from, because I'm going to lose trades again in the future and I'll need to deal with those as well!

What can you improve on?: Following my rules. Recognising when my psychology has been negatively impacted and stopping trading. 

Questions?: Should I have gone back in? Surely not... 

[Adam Lewis 64]

15 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

First was CCIV

Really nice ABCD trade this Matt! The C and D on your chart could also be the A and B of an entirely new pattern. I'm not sure how you'd feel going straight back in so quickly but might have also helped you capitalise on the move on. 

12 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

An afternoon ABCD

I love your 5 minute chart here with 3 x ABCD patterns overlaying one another! Are you in the business of adding into positions? If you're lucky enough to find a stock like NIO which is trending like this for the day you could sit there and spend the day partialling and then accumulating before finally closing a nice position towards the last half hour. Relies on finding nice trendy stocks, but it seems NIO was a great example of this in action.

[MattfromNZ 55]

6 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock: TLRY

Strategy: Fallen angel

Result: Loss, 0.75R

Long/Short: Long

Entry: 20.35

Risk: 15c

S/L: 20.20

Why did you take the trade, and what happened?: The price action showed signs of a reversal. I was watching for a strong move back to the long side. After an initial indecisive opening 2 minutes TLRY sold off heavily dropping a whole dollar in three minutes. It then found support, hovering at around 20.30, and I prepared to enter. I went long as it began to rise, only to then get stopped out very quickly. I had to get out, staring down the risk of being caught in a further flush if I didn't. The frustrating thing of course is that the stock did then reverse and sure enough retraced back to VWAP and beyond. This is the critical weakness of this strategy - you need to keep stops tight, and there will be times when this happens, getting you stopped out before the trade moves your way. I need to learn to deal with this, yesterday I really didn't. 

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Very frustrated. This was the second losing trade of the session, the second time this set up had failed, and put me well into the red. Seeing the movement then pop up and knowing I'd have been several Rs in profit if I'd waited 10 more seconds to enter hardly helped. On reflection, I think I actually did everything right! My entry was fine, coming after support and a 1min double bottom; my exit was correct, I couldn't sit through a flush and worse behaviour would be holding onto a flushing stock in the hope it'll pop back up. The thing I did wrong here was to continue trading after a loss which clearly slammed into my psychology. I went on to double my losses by revenge trading and losing my discipline. 

What did you do well?:  The entry and stop loss were both correct. I've no problem with those. The set up made sense, all criteria were met (a stock strong green on the day, flushed below VWAP, finding and holding a support level). Maybe not A+, but certainly an A, and I expect given the same circumstances I'd enter this position again. It's what happened after that was the issue and is the major point to learn from, because I'm going to lose trades again in the future and I'll need to deal with those as well!

What can you improve on?: Following my rules. Recognising when my psychology has been negatively impacted and stopping trading. 

Questions?: Should I have gone back in? Surely not... 

Not familiar with the strategy, however their is a lot of noise in those first 3 candles, don't you want more of a drop right out of the gate? You haven't entered until the close of a full 5min red candle with no wicks, just something to consider.

Assuming that this was a good setup and you executed the strategy correctly it seems like this was just one of those times where the strategy failed. Day traders are in the business of probabilities. A strategy may only work 50% of the time, but if you are able to make more R's than what you lose, it will be profitable. The issue here I think Adam (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that you haven't been implementing this strategy very long. You don't have the statistical data to know how profitable this strategy will be FOR YOU. It seems this is the second time you have been stopped out like this, maybe this will happen 30% of the time and you have to deal with it.

I wouldn't have re-entered either, fuck that, It pulled back and then went lower, I would have thought it was going to continue dropping.

Keep it up man, I do plan to get more familiar with this strategy so I can learn more from this.

[MattfromNZ 55]

6 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Really nice ABCD trade this Matt! The C and D on your chart could also be the A and B of an entirely new pattern. I'm not sure how you'd feel going straight back in so quickly but might have also helped you capitalise on the move on. 

Thanks man, to be honest I stopped watching the stock closely before it shot up again. I would like to think that I would have re-entered but maybe not since I was happy with my 2R? 

7 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

I love your 5 minute chart here with 3 x ABCD patterns overlaying one another! Are you in the business of adding into positions? If you're lucky enough to find a stock like NIO which is trending like this for the day you could sit there and spend the day partialling and then accumulating before finally closing a nice position towards the last half hour. Relies on finding nice trendy stocks, but it seems NIO was a great example of this in action.

I haven't been adding to positions yet. It did cross my mind in this case, but I purposely didn't because I have heard that you shouldn't add on the 3rd ABCD, because that's often the last leg. But yes, you see these big long trends that form and it would be nice to be able to capitalize on them deliberately, rather than just "getting lucky".

[Adam Lewis 64]

18 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

Not familiar with the strategy, however their is a lot of noise in those first 3 candles, don't you want more of a drop right out of the gate? You haven't entered until the close of a full 5min red candle with no wicks, just something to consider.

In an A+ set up, yes you're right that right out of the gate there will be a flush. However I'm happy to take these positions at any point in the first 20 minutes, the key is that there's been a violent flush right before the entry creating space for a reversal. This stock qualified as it dropped $1.20, on a $20 stock, so it's dropped 5% value in three minutes. At the same time it was an up gapper showing real strength. The first 2 minutes did show plenty of noise, but it won't negate an entry.

18 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

The issue here I think Adam (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that you haven't been implementing this strategy very long. You don't have the statistical data to know how profitable this strategy will be FOR YOU. It seems this is the second time you have been stopped out like this, maybe this will happen 30% of the time and you have to deal with it.

No you're absolutely right, I remain very new to this strategy. I had a hunch before Christmas it could be valid, simply from weeks eyeballing charts in the first few minutes and noticing a tendency to flush. I have weeks, months to go until I really understand the dynamics of it. I really do have to deal with losing trades with this strategy, my mentality on Friday was very immature I think, and hopefully with experience it'll improve.

19 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

Keep it up man, I do plan to get more familiar with this strategy so I can learn more from this.

I'll continue to play with it. Like many momentum and scalping strategies, I get the sense that this is one of those where there is a little bit of instinct and intuition involved. That's hardly helpful if you're trying to bring precision and accuracy to your trading! I'm trying to find ways to build in a little more precision and structure without harming the essential fluidity of these moves.

[MattfromNZ 55]

8 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

I'm happy to take these positions at any point in the first 20 minutes

Do you have a reference on this you could link to? Today I've had a quick look at the fallen angel strategy from others, and they are only entering within the first 2mins. To me it seems that the fallen angel is strictly a market open strategy and not one that should be used 10 or 20mins later.

 

[Adam Lewis 64]

You may be right. I've seen a playbook on it and that does clearly give an example of the fallen angel as being valid at the immediate market open. Then again I've heard Brian on the chatroom discussing potential falling angel plays that seemed to go deeper into the session. Perhaps I'm using the wrong terminology, and I should be talking about some class of reversal?