OTC's DT Journal

[OTC 27]

DAY – 10 (7.24.2020)

Trades: 6 (Green 3X Goals)

Symbols: 2; 3 (DT: AMD, SPCE; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA)

Psychology: Slept well – got up later to mitigate this, my normal 6:30 am wake-up felt ‘off’ so I slept 1 more hour – good decision. I did not allow breaking my routine to affect me (traded symbols I know). Confidence up, mental plan – good (intentionally same as 7.22.20 and 7.23.2020).

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SPCE, AMD and BA without bias. Trade symbols on ‘favorites’ WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Daily Market Wrap-up & Week in Review:

Earnings season continues next week (7.28.20: AMD; 7.29.20: BA, APA, FB; 7.30.20 AMZN, GOOG, AAPL) – to name a few. SPY sold off today and notably yesterday the SPY fell below a ‘bullish’ level of $322, this same level was a breakout on 7.20.2020 – ?False Breakout? All sectors were red today and appear to be split down the middle on a weekly look. Surprisingly, the biggest gainer for the week was Energy, +1.64% - are production cuts helping or is demand increasing?

WL:

 

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

No change, still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

 

BA

Sold overnight position on profit, took another position at LOD for pre-earnings next week. Catalyst: American Airlines (AAL) to take delivery 737 Max fleet, US Exim bank approves its first big aircraft-related deals in five years, including a guarantee on a $459M  facility for receivables owed to engine maker General Electric by Boeing under a new Cares Act authorization. The bank also is supporting a deal for $498M in Boeing jets being acquired by Turkish Airlines. 

DAY TRADES:

SPCE

Overall grade = D, break-even, 1.7R, 2.3R (Potential: 3R)

Catalyst: Space travel sector is hot, C-suite improvement, commercialization upcoming.

Strategy: 5-min ORB/ABCD, Climactic Reversal

T1: Long bias, entry was at the hold of daily level ($24), stopped out. Re-entered several times and got chopped around, very bad trade, small loser. T2: Entry was late after TFL hold and entered on intraday level hold ($23.51), P1 of 20% at daily level, P2 and P3 of 50% at (Panic partials at mini-consolidation), P4 of 50% at daily level ($24.6), P5 – bailed on EMA test with 100 SMA above, this average caused me to panic and bail early.   

Trade Management: Overall, okay. Because I got chopped around with no true set-up in the opening my reversal was with limited position on lack of confidence. Had no business trading this symbol in the first 15 minutes as it was a ‘chop-fest’. My second trade was good - good entry, good partials, a couple of premature ('panic partials' on consolidation), and max target.

NI – Regardless of confidence with a symbol, wait to enter a trade on a set-up and move you have confidence in. Playing a ‘long bias’ is not good, let the market tell you what is going to occur.

AMD

Overall grade = A+, winner, 2R, 1.3R, 3.9R, 3.9R, 1R

Catalyst: Strength on earnings report, on my Favorites WL.

Strategy: Climactic Reversal, Trend Continuation, 5-min ABCD, Break HOD, Short Scalp

T1: Short bias, entry at upper hold of 200 SMA, P1 of 66% at 20 EMA on 5-min chart (shorting a strong stock), P2 of 50% at 9 EMA on 15-min chart, added 50 shares on PB and test of 100 SMA on 1-min/50 SMA on 2-min (double confirmation to add), P3 of 50% at 15-min 9 EMA (premature partial – not panic partial because shorting a strong stock), stopped out and reversed position. T2: Long bias, entry on new 1-min VPOC line (confirmation of good entry), P1 of 25% at 100 SMA on 1-min chart, P2 of 66% at VPOC on 15-min chart, stopped out at BE. T3: Long bias, entry at 13:15 candle (position C of 5-min ABCD), P1 of 30% at top of 5-min VPOC (premature partial), P2 of 29% at 15-min VPOC, P3 of 100% at daily level/5-min VPOC R-lvl (Note: I saw the ASK orders on L2 for $69.53, I missed out on 30C move, place your orders in front of those big ASKS especially on a stock that is so strong to the upside). T4: Long bias, entry ($69.44) on L2 strength and big asks for HOD break, P1 of 50% at 1-min VPOC, P2 of 100% at HOD in front of big ask (I was 2C off of HOD on that push – nicely done!). T5: Short bias, retracement short, entry $69.43, P1 of 50% at daily level $69.33, P2 of 100% at intraday level $69.16.

Trade Management: No issues, I was in the zone on this trade a la Mark Douglas. I played the trend both directions, once I gave back profits I quit trading the symbol, did not break #SYO.

NI – Humble brag, nothing. This trade was as good as it gets. I took a couple of premature partials on shorts but in my defense this stock was very strong to upside. See note in red for other NI.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 6/9 - FAIL

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – FAIL

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – FAIL

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Getting better executing better entries and stopping out when entry is not great (bottom reversals), Good recognition of trend trading on AMD, took it short long and short using trend lines beautifully.

Things I did poorly: Trading the chop-fest open on SPCE lowered my confidence, I caught the reversal but was shy to take more position because of opening trade. Need better recognition of when to trade the open and when not to (ended -$15 on that trade, I consider that BE).

Edited July 24, 2020 by OTC

[tntp45 53]

Awesome Recaps !

[OTC 27]

On 7/26/2020 at 10:40 PM, tntp45 said:

Awesome Recaps !

Thanks Tom, I won't have them for a few days as I am converting my day trading over to DAS.....stay tuned for more.

Edited August 4, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

All,

Update for those of you who follow, read and gain knowledge from may DT Journal:

I am currently transitioning into DAS for day trading so I have spent the last week setting up my screens, configurations and hot keys. I will probably stay in DAS SIM for 2 more weeks while I get comfortable with the visual differences from TOS. I will continue to run TOS on one screen as I find a lot of value in TOS' version of volume profile (VP), they offer a VP dynamic support and resistance which I use to take partials from (on the 5-min and 15-min charts). I mainly use the VP levels (VPOC, R-lvl and S-lvl) on the 1-min and 2-min for entry confirmation. I will continue to use TOS for my swing trades and eventually for options trading.

Lastly, thank you to all those who comment on the value they gain from my DT Journal, I appreciate the support and honest feedback. Please tell me how I can improve this experience for you all. I gain valuable experience and learn from my journaling as well so your comments (brutally honest, if need be) are VERY welcome.

I look forward to trading live again soon!

[OTC 27]

DAY – 11 (8.5.2020)

Trades: 1 (Green 3.5X Goals)

Symbols: 1; 3 (DT: SQ; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA)

Psychology: Slept well okay, woke up 1 hour before regular time. Should have slept longer, tired all day. Confident, so decided to trade the open.

Goal for the day: Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Day Trades – Look for continuation on SQ and AMD. Monitor BYND (look to trade on Friday or Monday) post earnings (8.4.20). Trade symbols on ‘favorites’ WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Daily Market Wrap-up & Week in Review:

Earnings season continues next week with BYND and DIS yesterday, MRNA today. S&P 500 finished strong into the close with buying brigade likely coming in on hopes of stimulus announcement. Overall, tough trading day, SPY was range bound between $331.25 - $332.25. The heat map shows a good balance of green and red. Basic Materials lead the sector ETFs but financials and energy made a strong move. Energy (XLE +2.1%) was strong on news of crude oil price hitting 5-month high on due to big drop in storage volumes.

WL:

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

No change, still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

 

 

BA

Entered position slightly below $154, took half of at $170, holding the other half for the break of $180 back of to VPOC. Today’s closing price was $174.28 and in the AH session a new high of $177.05 was established at 18:25. I like my chances for the break of $180 since the stimulus has not been announced. Will likely sell remainder of position no later than this Friday, depending on stimulus announcement.

 

WKHS

Sold 200 shares on 8.4.2020 on news about Lordstown SPAC deal, WKHS owns 10% of Lordstown. New average price is $14.85 which gives me some room for Monday’s earnings report. I will be looking to reduce ~75% of remaining position before earnings with intent to purchase more shares below or around $14.50. I like this company for a move to $30 on EV hype and their niche of last-mile delivery, contracts with UPS, Ryder and potential contract with USPS (all or portion of $6B contract). Be aware that this is one of the most shorted stocks in the market right now, %33.6 according to finviz. Upside to this is if Lordstown SPAC IPO is announced before Monday WKHS could squeeze and above break $20.

 

SAVE

Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

DAY TRADES:

SQ

Overall grade = A, winner, 16.2R

Catalyst: Gappers list, gapped up ~$10 on earnings beat (8.4.20, after market close).

Strategy: 1-min ORB

T1: Long bias, entry was on hold of earnings beat high/pre-market hold of pivot ($152.43). Entry on 1-min as it held the level as well as the 50SMA, P1 at 9EMA, P2 at PMH, P3 ahead of big asks on L2, P4 on PB (pre-mature/panic partial), P5 ahead of big asks (didn't get filled, user error or HK error?), P6 at pre-mature/panic partial. 

Trade Management: Overall, good. First entry failed and got stopped out on tight SL. Good job of staying wit the move/set-up. 2^nd entry was with two strong holds (level and MA). Overall partialing was good, at key levels with good percentage takes. Took two premature partials (#4 and #6). #4 on panic PB and #6 at bottom of last strong move (check L2 for orders above to take partials).

NI – Still need work on recognizing L2 orders for partials, to eliminate panic partials.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 8/9 - FAIL

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – FAIL

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – FAIL

7. 3SYO – FAIL

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – FAIL

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Getting better executing better entries and stopping out when entry is not great.

Things I did poorly: Still taking some panic partials, getting better but still doing it. 

 

Edited August 6, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

 

DAY – 12 (8.6.2020)

Trades: 2 (Red 3.5X Goals)

Symbols: 2; 4 (DT: BA, DIS; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA)

Psychology: Slept poorly, worried about swing trades. Also had a small family emergency yesterday, should not have traded today.  

Goal for the day:

Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan.

Day Trades – Look for continuation on SQ and AMD. Monitor BYND (look to trade on Friday or Monday) post earnings (8.4.20). Trade symbols on ‘favorites’ WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes).

Daily Market Wrap-up & Week in Review:

Earnings season continues. S&P 500 finished very strong, made an ascending triangle and broke out on high volume and never looked back. Energy down after strong positive run yesterday, consolidation. Communications Service sector lead the day with many companies reporting strong earnings with stay-at-home work.

WL:

DAY TRADES:

BA

Overall grade = C, winner, 3.2R

Catalyst: Strong move in AH yesterday to $177, News on DOJ contract for F-jets (re-announced), airlines getting more bail-out money.

Strategy: 1-min ORB

T1: Long bias, entry on VWAP hold, SAL loss of VWAP, tight stop. P1 at 50 SMA, P2 at pre-mature/panic partial, P3 at 200 SMA, P4/5 on weakness to avoid stop-out.

Trade Management: Overall, good. Practicing on DAS in SIM before going live. Need to remember to adjust SL after taking partials – IT DOES NOT SELF ADJUST. Be aware that you will essentially reverse position.

NI – Still need work on recognizing L2 orders for partials, to eliminate panic partials.

 

DIS

Overall grade = F, Loser, Potential 16R

Catalyst: Coming off strong earnings announced 8.4.20 and lots of volume on 8.5.20, continuation?

Strategy: NONE

T1: Long bias, example of how to NEVER trade. TERRIBLE, took more than 100+ fills. T1 through T5 were thought out with entry and exit strategy, got stopped out 3 times = 3SYO, failed to comply with rule. EXAMPLE OF WHAT NEVER TO DO AGAIN – overtraded is an understatement. Supposed to be focusing on learning DAS, not trading live in TOS.

Trade Management: Overall, FAIL.

NI – Do NOT trade when you have not strategy, do not trade NSYE stocks if you have preconceived perspective of them, I say, “I do not like NYSE stocks”. This creates BAD psychology, FEAR!

 

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

No change, still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

BA

Entered position slightly below $154, took half of at $170, holding the other half for the break of $180. Today’s closing price was $174.28 and in the AH session a new high of $177.05 was established at 18:25. I like my chances for the break of $180 since the stimulus has not been announced. Will likely sell remainder of position no later than this Friday, depending on stimulus announcement.

 WKHS

Sold 150 shares to lower my position going into earnings on 8.10.20. expecting this symbol to reach $30 but at earnings could go below my average price of $14.70, look to double up around $12. If it falls below $10 exit – currently trading this on ‘house money’.

 SAVE

Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 2/9 - FAIL

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - FAIL

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - FAIL

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – FAIL

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – FAIL

7. 3SYO – FAIL

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – FAIL

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Nothing. Upside is I haven't traded like this in over a month and I was cautious enough to lose my max loss only.

Things I did poorly: Traded on a day with bad psychology following an emergency event last night. Over traded. 100+ fills on $DIS – UNACCEPTABLE.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2020 by OTC

[tntp45 53]

Did you really trade $DIS that much ? OMG that is awesome !

[OTC 27]

30 minutes ago, tntp45 said:

Did you really trade $DIS that much ? OMG that is awesome !

LOL, I always say "awesome is not necessarily good"...definition is extremely impressive, or daunting; inspiring great admiration, apprehension or fear.

talk about some revenge trading in action...exhausting for sure. I needed that, got it out of my system at minimal loss and on TOS so commission free.

[OTC 27]

DAY – 13 (8.6.2020)

Trades: 9 (Red, -0.5x Goal)

Symbols: 4; 4 (DT: JPM, RKT, AMD, WDC; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA)

Psychology: Slept well, started morning relaxed and ready. Rejuvenated confidence after yesterday’s silliness trading.

Goal for the day: Day Trades – Look for continuation on DIS, BYND, PENN, VXRT (all post earnings). Monitor BYND (look to trade on Monday) post earnings (8.4.20). Trade symbols on ‘favorites’ WL only. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes). Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan - no changes. 

Daily Market Wrap-up & Week in Review:

Earnings season continues. S&P 500 finished very strong, made an ascending triangle all week and broke out of important high set back on 1.22.20 ($333). On my daily analysis chart, the SPY is getting a bit extended from the 20 SMA, not healthy. Look for PB before going to test YTD high of $339.

WL:

 

DAY TRADES:

AMD

Overall grade = A, winner, 1.8R, 2.6R

Catalyst: Quite extended after major run up, looking for Friday sell-off.

Strategy: 1-min Falling Angel, Bottom Reversal PB

T1: Short bias, entry on large wick (toppy) candle, added to position on PDHOD hold, 4C stop-loss, P1 at VWAP, P2 at 200 SMA, P3 at 200 SMA after PB, P4-P6 on last exhaustive volume candle before reversal. T2: Long bias, first two entries were early – good bail. Left symbol to watch JPM trade. Entry was later than I wanted but good on PB to 200 SMA, P1 of 50% at pivot point break-out (partial to large), P2 of 25% at VWAP, P3 of 25% at toppy candles and PB on SPY (target was daily level at $85.19).

Trade Management: Overall, pretty good. P1 was too large, need to recognize that SPY was ‘popping’. Good entry with tight SL since I had been watching and expecting bottom reversal.

NI – After leaving trade due to stop-outs, remember to keep watching it for your set-up.

 

RKT:

Overall grade = D, Loser, 13R (was negative P/L from previous entries)

Catalyst: 8.6.20 IPO, strong move up on IPO day, continuation

Strategy: Climactic Reversal

Long bias, attempted multiple entries and stopped out trying to catch a big move up on previous day momentum – all failed. Recognized this and started waiting for reversal, couple of entries too soon, stopped out. The yellow represents exhaustive volume and wick candles to pay attention to. T1: Entry too early – stop-out. T2: 50C scalp on engulfing candle. T3:  entry on bullish engulfing PB, P1 of 50% at VWAP, added 100 shares on PB at 9 and 20 EMA on 5-min, stopped out. T4: entry after exhaustive volume on indecision and hammer (see 4^th yellow box), P1 at 50 and 200 SMA cross, P2 at 100 SMA/VWAP, P3 at pre-market high, stopped out. Tried another entry – failed, stop-out.

Trade Management: Overall, forced too many attempts for IPO continuation, need to recognize that big move happened in the pre-M. good recognition of exhaustive volume, poor recognition of reversal.

NI – RECOGNIZE that when stock makes strong move in pre-M it is less likely to keep going higher.

JPM

Overall grade = C, winner, 6.5R

Catalyst: Nothing specific, banks trading higher today, JPM is on my favorites WL.

Strategy: Bottom Reversal

T1: Long bias, took a few entries too early that failed – SPY was chopping around. Entry on daily level hold, P1 at daily level, P2-P5 at daily level ‘chop’ (premature or good decisions?), P6 at L2 recognition of big ask order at $99.25. T2: took quick short scalp from HOD to 9 EMA.

Trade Management: Overall, pretty good. P1 was too large, need to recognize that SPY was ‘popping’. Good entry with tight SL since I had been watching and expecting bottom reversal.

NI – Wait for better bottom reversal entries and wait when a stock is trading on SPY and SPY is chopping around.

 

WDC

Overall grade = A, Loser, Potential 2.2R

Catalyst: Missed on Earnings, multiple price downgrades, sold off -16.12% on 8.6.20

Strategy: Bottom Reversal

T1: Long bias, entry after exhaustive volume, indecision and hammer.

Trade Management: Overall, pretty good. Set it and forget it trade.

NI – Waiting for bottom reversal to finish its move down before entering trade.

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

No change, still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

BA

Entered position slightly below $154, took half of at $170, holding the other half for the break of $180. Still holding some for the break of $180. F-15EX DOJ contract awarded, worth $23.4B, obligated funds are ‘only’ $650MM. I might hold this one for 3Q earnings.

WKHS

Sold 150 shares to lower my position going into earnings on 8.10.20. expecting this symbol to reach $30 but at earnings could go below my average price of $14.70, look to double up around $12. If it falls below $10 exit – currently trading this on ‘house money’.

SAVE

Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 7/9 - PASS

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – FAIL

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – PASS

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Recognize yesterday’s total fail and clear mind for new day. Last nights preparation and thought for ‘what could happen today” was good. Recognized that AMD needed a PB. Patience with JPM on consolidation before mid-day ‘pop’ on trend day.

Things I did poorly: Still need work on recognizing L2 orders for partials, to eliminate panic partials – recurring issue! Early entrances on bottom reversals, still need work to recognize.

Major observations to work on:

Bottom Reversal

     o   I want my entry below the daily level

     o   When I think its time to enter, it’s still too early – wait.

 

Edited August 11, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 14 (8.10.2020)

Trades: 2 (Red 3.5X Goals)

Symbols: 4; 4 (DT: CGC, JPM, WDC; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA)

Psychology: Slept very well, relaxing weekend at my favorite vacation spot – clear mind, good pre-game plan set Friday, good pre-market prep of WL.

Goal for the day: Day Trades – Look for a reversal on WDC after big post earnings report sell-off. Looking for strong push from CGC off of good earnings report. Trade 1 or 2 symbols off of favorites list, JPM top choice as big money is rotating into XLF. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Watch GLD consolidation, RSI showing overbought, stochastics showing ‘turn-down’. Watch for XLU entry for 3-6 week swing. 

Daily Market Wrap-up: SPY had a large inflow last week ($1.27B), at the same time IWM had an outflow of $1.32B. All other large ETFs were statistically unchanged, however XLE lost $726B. Technology, communications and consumer discretionary combine to make up 50% of the SPY – XLC and XLK are weakening; money is rotating into XLF, XLI, and XLY – those 3 sectors only comprise 20% of the SPY.

WL:

 DAY TRADES:

CGC

Overall grade = B, winner, 7R, 10.7R

Catalyst: Strong earnings – better than expected net loss on revenue and EPS (The net loss for the quarter to  June 30  narrowed to  C$108.5 million  ( $81.05 million ), or  30 cents  a share, from  C$185.9 million , or  54 cents  a share, in the year-ago period).

Strategy: 1-min ORB

T1: Long bias, entry on daily level ($18), P1 of 33% at daily level, added on PB to original entry price, P2 of 25% at VWAP, P2 of 25% at daily level in front of big asks. Re-entry at PB on daily level at $18.15, P1 at $18.40 infront of big asks, P2 at break of pivot point in front of big asks, P3 before break of HOD, missed P5. Missed BE stop, exited trade at PB to $18.

Trade Management: Overall, quite good. Good entry, good partials (in terms of %-ages), missed last partial and forgot to replace SL.

NI – Recognize weakness of stock at key level, exit position and then re-enter on major PBs.

JPM:

Overall grade = B, Breakeven, 0R

Catalyst: Sector rotation, out of XLE, XLK and XLC. Into XLF, XLI and XLY.

Strategy: 3-Bar Play

T1: Long bias, entry on PB and test to 50 SMA on 1-min chart, stopped out on SPY weakness.

Trade Management: Overall, good. Stop loss did what its intended to. Godd job of recognizing SPY and bailing on trade before incurring ‘acceptable’ loss due to risk.

NI – Pay more attention to SPY on symbols that mirror it, eliminate even small losses

 

WDC

Overall grade = CB, winner, Potential 2.1R

Catalyst: Sold off for two days (-16.5%, -0.8%) after bad earnings.

Strategy: Bottom Reversal

T1: Long bias, late entry but good on strength after morning sell-off. Did not take partials, see TM.

Trade Management: Overall, pretty good. ‘Set it and Forget it’ trade. Left house for appointment so wasn’t able to manage exit. It did not reach my target range order at $38.99. Bailed before stop out at closing bell.

NI – After leaving trade due to stop-outs, remember to keep watching it for your set-up.

 

SWING TRADES:

IBM:

No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

BA

No change. Still holding 50% of position for the break of $180, today closing price met resistance at the 50 SMA on the daily chart. Catalyst: F-15EX DOJ contract awarded, worth $23.4B, obligated funds are ‘only’ $650MM. I might hold this one for 3Q earnings.

  

WKHS

Watching earnings report in the pre-market, misses on revenue and net loss cash was significantly higher at $131.3MM, however investors are still holding for long-term growth story, as am I. I reduced my position prior to earnings and have been trading this symbol on ‘house money’. I will look to reload my position if it falls below my average share cost of $14.70. $14.50 has held strong as support for the last 5 weeks.

SAVE

No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 8/9 - PASS

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – FAIL

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – PASS

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Stick with stocks I prepared on Friday and over weekend, my pre, pre analysis often results in winners. Good job of being patient with daily levels held – not bailing prematurely.

Things I did poorly: Still need work on recognizing L2 orders for partials, to eliminate panic partials – recurring issue! Early entrances on bottom reversals, still need work to recognize.

Major observations to work on:

Bottom Reversal

     o   I want my entry below the daily level

     o   When I thin kits time to enter, it’s still too early – wait.

Edited August 11, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 15 (8.11.2020)

Trades: 1 (Green)

Symbols: 1; 5 (DT: NIO; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA, WDC)

Psychology: Slept well, confident, up early to prep for day.

Goal for the day: Day Trades – Look for a reversal on WDC after big post earnings report sell-off. Looking for a catalyst stock to trade. Trade 1 or 2 symbols off of favorites list, JPM top choice as big money is rotating into XLF. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan.

Daily Market Wrap-up:

SPY sold off at end of day, sell off gave back almost all of the gains made in the previous 5 trading sessions. Sell-off makes sense since it tested YTD high set back in mid February. Sector rotation continues, financials and Industrials green, all other sectors red for day. Russia claims to have the first vaccine for COVID, Putin vaccinates his daughter.

WL:

DAY TRADES:

NIO

Overall grade = A, winner, 5.8R

Catalyst: Earnings better than expected, beats in EPS loss, beats in sales.

Strategy: Descending Triangle

T1: Short bias, big gap up and pre-market action. Entry after 9and 20 EMA tested 4 times, entry on hold of yesterday LOD, took two partials then on another re-test added to position. Partials were set in front of large bids or in gaps between large bids. Partial #3 and #4 were pre-mature partials.

Trade Management: Overall, quite good. Good entry, good partials (in terms of %-ages), 2 premature partials and failed to recognize the bids at daily level and yester-yesterday LOD for better exit.

NI – Reduce pre-mature partials that could have been held for greater move to daily level or even yester-yesterday LOD and larger reward, would have been 7.8R trade.

 

SWING TRADES:

WDC

Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down, has held $37 for 3 days.

IBM:

Update: Price action (PA) broke $130 to $130.47, testing the 200 SMA. PA wedging between 20 SMA and 200 SMA. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

BA

Sold remainder of position on the break of $189. Today’s daily candle closed as shooting star, looking for BA to consolidate and re-enter below $171.

WKHS

No change. Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level. Mu average sharre price is $14.70 and I am trading this symbol with house money.

SAVE

No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 7/9 - PASS

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – FAIL

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – FAIL

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Patience, missed NIO in pre-market, opening bell was not for me on that symbol, caught an 'obvious' descending triangle.

Things I did poorly: Still need work on recognizing L2 orders for partials, to eliminate panic partials – recurring issue! Early entrances on bottom reversals, still need work to recognize.

Major observations to work on:

Bottom Reversal

     o   I want my entry below the daily level

     o   When I thin kits time to enter, it’s still too early – wait. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 16 (8.12.2020)

Trades: 2 (Red)

Symbols: 1; 5 (DT: BA; Swing: IBM, WKHS, SAVE, APA, WDC)

Psychology: Slept poorly, did not trade until 2 pm. Confident in BA selling off

Goal for the day: Day Trades – Look to short BA on big sell off – went to bed at 3 am so DNT. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan.

Daily Market Wrap-up:

SPY had good constant gains all day, tested YTD high set back in February. Gold made a move back up in AHs yesterday and sold-off today to yesterdays LOD, it should bounce back once overbought RSI is balanced out. All sectors green although MRNA, INO, VXRT and most COVID vaccine 'players' were red for the day.

WL:

DAY TRADES:

BA

Overall grade = C, Loser, Potential 5R

Catalyst: Extended, expecting it to sell off.

Strategy: Daily Level Test on Weakness

T1: Short bias, expecting this to sell off and sure did! FOMO – ‘Set It and Forget It’ (SIFI) trade, entry on 9 EMA rejection at daily level, targets are marked in image at two daily levels. Got stopped out.

Trade Management: Overall, ok. In hindsight I see low volume test wick (yellow box), should have reversed position. However, this was a SIFI trade so could not do that – had to go to an appointment.

NI – I ‘knew’ (speculation) this would sell off and could trade it, but tried at 2 pm. SIFI trade means it could go either way and today it went against me, was not at trade station to assess VPA, PA and L2.

 

SWING TRADES:

WDC

No change. Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down, has held $37 for 3 days.

IBM:

No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

WKHS

No change. Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level.

SAVE

No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 8/9 - PASS

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries - PASS

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS

9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – NA

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Stick with stocks I prepared on ahead of time, I was expecting BA to sell off and it did, was down as much as -6% at one point, finished -2.60%.

Things I did poorly: Revenge trades after deciding on BA trade that failed, 2 revenge trades that also failed.

Major observations to work on:

Bottom Reversal

     o   I want my entry below the daily level

     o   When I thin kits time to enter, it’s still too early – wait.

Edited August 12, 2020 by OTC

[OTC 27]

DAY – 16 & 17 (8.18.2020 & 8.19.2020)

Trades: 3 (Green, 8X and 8X above daily goal)

Symbols: 2; 5 (DT: WMT, TGT; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA, WDC)

Psychology: Slept well both days, starting to get up a little later – meditation and shorter pre-market preparations.

Goal for the day: Day Trades – Find catalyst stock. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan.

Daily Market Wrap-up:

SPY broke YTD high on weak move and low volume, RVOL today was 70% and yesterday was 50%. SPY broke all time high in a range and then sold off on government news. Some expected it to break YTD high on catalyst of Stimulus Package talks finally coming to positive fruition.

8.19.2020

8.18.2020

8.19.2020

WL:

8.18.2020

8.19.2020

DAY TRADES:

WMT (8.18.2020)

Overall grade = B, Winner, 8R

Catalyst: Strong earnings – US sales rose 9.3%, Comp sales rose 13.3%, beat on revenue by $7B from last year.

Strategy: Climactic Reversal

T1: Long bias but took a short first on ORB weakness and ‘pop’. short entry was extended but L2 was showing strength to downside. Reversal was at pre-market LOD, P1 at 20EMA, P2 at 50SMA, added to position on low volume PB, added more on previous-previous premarket LOD and holding 9/20 EMA and 50 SMA, partialed up to $135.50.

Trade Management: Overall, good. No premature partials, good recognition of Orb to downside before taking the reversal and catalyst strength I was looking for. It was a one and done day 8X daily goal.

NI – Trust your entry on confirmation of level or MA or what you are trading off of, this trade was ~12R because SL would have been so small.

 

TGT (8.19.2020)

Overall grade = B, Winner, 7R; A, Winner, 3.8R

Catalyst: Strong earnings – Q2 comparable sales up 24%, gained $5B in market cap.

Strategy: VWAP Break Out

T1: Long bias but took an opening short. Had some HK errors but entry and add were well calculated, two premature partials on small body candles showing weakness near $153.50. All partials above $154 were bonus in my mind. T2: Took a second trade later on PB and pop, very proud of my patience since I got stopped out and I missed the wedge BO due to attending to other business.

Trade Management: Overall, good. Still had a couple premature partials, could have held last bit of shares for bigger run to $154.85, my exit was $154.25. Good job of scanning similar candles and associated volume for weak PBs.

NI – Trust your entry on confirmation of level or MA or what you are trading off of, this trade was ~12R because SL would have been so small.

SWING TRADES:

WDC

No change. Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down. Has fallen below $35, I will average down at below $34.

IBM:

No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

WKHS

Recent two day ‘pop’ on unusual options action to the high side. Government fiscal year ends end of September, should hear if they win some or all the USPS contract ($6B). Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level.

SAVE

No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 6/8 – FAIL, because I failed #8.

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries – FAIL

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – PASS

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – PASS

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Not move SL to BE so soon on watching L2 and PA and Mas.

Things I did poorly: Need to trust your entry on confirmation of level or MA or what you are trading off of.

Major observations to work on:

Bottom Reversal

o   I want my entry below the daily level

o   When I thin kits time to enter, it’s still too early – wait.

VPA

o   When anomaly is identified:

o   Where in the trend are you?

          §  Bottom or Top – is a major reversal coming?

          §  Middle of trend – is this just a minor PB?

Edited August 19, 2020 by OTC

[tntp45 53]

Great Trades !  Great Recaps !

Are you trading Live ?

Just looking at your day trades.  Do you typically just watch and trade one stock all day ?

Great reversal of position on $WMT !

[OTC 27]

DAY – 18(8.20.2020)

Trades: 5+ (Green, 3.5X Daily Goal)

Symbols: 3; 5 (DT: JD, LYFT, ROKU; Swing: IBM, WKHS, BA, APA, WDC)

Psychology: Slept well both days, starting to get up a little later – meditation and shorter pre-market preparations.

Goal for the day: Day Trades – Find catalyst stock. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan.

Daily Market Wrap-up:

Although SPY was on a steady incline all day long it was a tough trading day. Stocks were choppy and RVOLs were not great for momentum. Communication Services and Technology led the way while Energy and Utilities reported losses.

WL:

 

DAY TRADES:

JD

Overall grade = C, Winner, 3R

Catalyst: Continuation; Strong earnings – US sales rose 9.3%, Comp sales rose 13.3%, beat on revenue by $7B from last year.

Strategy: ABCD break outs

Trade Management: Overall, poor. Got negative PnL early so had to grind to get back into positive, good job of comparing PA off of VPA, comparing candles and volume to same type candles in previous time and different time frames. Definitely a GRIND day.

NI – Take smaller entries on days like today that RVOL is not giving us momentum moves through out the day.

 

 

ROKU

Overall grade = B, Loser, 1R and 1R

Catalyst: None

Strategy: ABCD Break out

Trade Management: Overall, okay. Take smaller position on weakness, wait for bigger entry on confirmation for better move.

NI – Take smaller entries on days like today that RVOL is not giving us momentum moves through out the day. Need to recognize that the volume used to get up to B exhausted the symbol.

 

LYFT

Overall grade = B, Winner, 2.5R

Catalyst: Uber/Lyft California court ruling, bad news. Later in day, the got an emergency stay clause, California shutdown averted.

Strategy: HnS Break Down

Trade Management: Overall, Good

NI – Good patience in waiting for HnS to set up, a 5-min "Consider This".

 

SWING TRADES:

WDC

No change. Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down. Has fallen below $35, I will average down at below $34.

IBM:

No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral).

WKHS

Recent two day ‘pop’ on unusual options action to the high side. Government fiscal year ends end of September, should here if they win some or all the USPS contract ($6B). Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level.

SAVE

No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections).

APA

No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international.

Final Review:

Goal for Day: 5/8 – FAIL, because I failed #8.

1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – FAIL

2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS

3. Work on better entries – FAIL

4. Only trade the symbols on your WL – FAIL

5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS

6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS

7. 3SYO – FAIL

8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – FAIL

#5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management

Things I did well: Stick with it and grind out a positive day.

Things I did poorly: Enter too many trades with poor momentum, enter with too large of position. Take too many trades that were not A+ set-ups. 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by OTC