Jump to content

Rob C

Lifetime Members
  • Content Count

    835
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    111

Everything posted by Rob C

  1. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 2: How to control stress Chapter 1 The first chapter of this volume essentially describes why stress is bad for you and your trading. I read the chapter, but there was nothing new or noteworthy. Chapter 2 This chapter was a self-assessment test. It comprised of 116 questions in three parts. 1) WT test = Worry Tendencies 2) LSI test = Life Stresses Inventory 3) SPI test = Stress Protection Inventory All three scores should be analyzed in conjunction with one another to determine your final assessment. How easily do you worry? How many issues in your life are there to worry about? What behaviors do you daily perform to protect yourself from these worries? So I scored a 38 on the WT test. This means I worry more than the average person and I may have psychological difficulties with any sort of investment. The LSI test first started that I have type “A” personality tendencies. Also, the test splits your amount of stress into 5 categories: personal, financial, health, job-related, and family. Sadly I scored “high” stress amount in all 5 categories for a total score of 110. Anything above a 60 is considered high. The SPI test I scored a 39 which means my stress protection is average. As a rule of thumb your LSI/SPI ratio should be <0.6 for a trader. Mine is 2.8 When you take the three scores combined, the book has a table. You take your WT score and match it with your SPI score than it has the LSI/SPI ratio you need to be a trader. According to this table the book gives me (and my scores) this warning: You should not be trading under any circumstances Ouch! What’s even more painful is I have really improved on all of these categories in the past year. I can’t imagine how I would have scored last year. I am hoping the course will improve the first two WT and LSI, but I will try and immediately improve the SPI. SPI is split into 5 categories. I did score well in two of them (Nutrition and problem solving). I scored poorly in Exercise, recreation and mental relaxation. I actually like exercising, but time constraints and the lack of energy has really caused an exercise deficit. See graph below which shows how my fitness level has really degraded this year The chart is VO2 Max versus month. I guess I should have shorted in July when it broke the 47 support level I will really need to get this curve moving in the opposite direction. I have increased meditation recently so in a month or so that score should increase. As for recreation, I don’t think I have done anything for myself in over 20 years. If I have any spare time I immediately think what can I do for my family. I am going to have to think about how to improve that area. I will retake the test at the end of the course or in 3 months. Which-ever comes last.
  2. Friday 8/09/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were actually quite good. Eager for the open. Which is surprising since I had 2 days of all losses. I took 1 live trades with AAPL and a few SIM trades. Like the rest of the week, in the premarket I saw no reason not to keep AAPL and AMD as my two main focuses. PM looked OK for both but I had no bias for either stock at the open. AAPL dropped immediately at the open and bounce back making a really nice hammer. I am starting to really like entering a trade with the 200MA in my way. It seems to pull the price toward it at the open (at least with AAPL). Though I must take a partial there because it may bounce. There was no really good target, So I had to take the 202.50 level as my target. The price has been respecting the half dollar levels this week. My stop was tight at the 201 level, which saw respect in the premarket. This gave a R/R~3. I should have waited for the price to break the 201.39 daily level first. But I really liked the setup and was worried that it would pop when it broke that level, and I would miss my entrance. So I entered below that level and my shares were a little light since it was a Friday. I took my first partial just below the 200MA-5min and my next one just below the 201.96 daily level. The price just about made it to my target of 202.50. I exited when price broke back through the 202.10 level which the previous three 1min candles respected. I still had alot of shares left so I didn’t want to hold to break even. Though I took quite a few partials I was good about keeping each quite small. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: I then took 4 SIM trades and was stopped out on 3 of them. Wow, I have a lot of work still to do to find another setup. Score Card (live trade) AAPL 90% What I did good today: Though I still took frequent partial profits I did keep them small. What I am grateful from today? I am really glad I finished the week with a good trade. What do I need to improve on: Finding another working setup.
  3. Thursday 8/08/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were actually OK, even after the double stop out yesterday. I took 2 live trades both with AAPL and a few SIM trades. Got stopped out of both AAPL trades which is a bit of a story and I was green 4 out of 5 SIM trades. Again with the premarket I saw no reason not to keep AAPL and AMD as my two main focuses. PM looked good for both but I had no bias for either stock at the open. Now I have been getting more and more irritated with my inability to take partial profits correctly. When I decided to hold to correctly partial yesterday on my MU SIM trade, I had the most profitable trade in 2019. So I was really steadfast this morning to at least hold to the correct first partial. That was my undoing of course. AAPL was positive at the opening, immediately engulfing the PM 1min candle. I waited to see where/if it would find support. It was moving through the 50MA-1min without much care, but it was finding support at 200.50. That happens to be VWAP, but I assume that was a coincidence since AAPL usually takes about 2 minutes before it respects VWAP. I do see resistance with the 200.50 level in premarket so I assume that was the reason. I went long after a bounce from that support. My target was the recent PM high of 201.55 with a stop at 200. I got a bad fill, but that’s common so close to the open. My R/R was still above 2. So everything OK so far. But, all that was going through my mind was, be strong and take a correct first partial. I was repeating over and over in my head and honestly not really paying attention to the trade. If I took this trade yesterday my first partial would have been at 201, which is the first tech level. But that’s at ~0.5R. The price reached 201 three times giving me plenty of time to take a partial. It took huge restraint not to. But because all of my energy was going to NOT taking some profit I failed to think that 3 times hitting a resistance means I should exit or take a large partial. It’s not a rule, but something I think about when I hit a resistance/support level 3 times. But, I wasn’t thinking about trade management, I was just trying to hold myself from taking a partial. The price retraced and I tried to stop out early at 200.30 since it was now setting up for a short. So I stopped and flipped. Lots of slippage on the stop so I ended up with a full –R loss. I did get an OK fill on my short. My target was PDC with the 50MA-1min as my stop. Essentially, I was paying an R to see if it would break the 200 and drop. I had to wait 3 minutes but it broke 200 and dropped quickly. I waited, though difficult for me, to reach the 1R profit which was the low of PM. Just as it reached the 1st target and I I tried to cover my DAS froze for about 10 seconds. When it came back I see the order was never initiated and the price retraced. I waited for it to drop again. It never did. After 4 bullish 1min candles, I had enough and stopped out at -0.5R. So two stop outs, that could have easily both been small winners. Very odd. But, now I have a decision. Two double stop out days puts me back into SIM, but both of these S/Os were unusual. I need to see how I feel tomorrow. Any nervousness about it and I will go back in SIM. The chart when I took the 1st trade. Both trades: Score Card (live trades) AAPL AAPL 80% 88% What I did good today: The setups were OK. What I am grateful from today? Usually double stop out days really take its toll emotionally on me. But I feel OK. What do I need to improve on: Tried to change my profit taking methods in one day. That won’t work. It needs to be done gradually.
  4. Wednesday 8/07/2019 I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. I took 2 live trades (AAPL and AMD) and 1 SIM with MU. I definitely did not help the score card average today. I even almost hit max loss. With the premarket I saw no reason not to keep AAPL and AMD as my two main focuses. PM looked good for both but I had no bias for either stock at the open. AAPL had 2 bullish 1min candle before the open, then after the open created a hammer on good volume. I would usually go long at that moment, but I was worried about a pull back to VWAP and the price would drop again. So I waited for a break of VWAP, but I wasn’t conscious enough of my scale. Waiting for a break of VWAP I gave up 50 cents. The price did break VWAP shortly after but I did not wait for the confirmation of the break. I have been working on this. I need the price to hold or go back and test the support level (here VWAP) and find support. I actually did this well yesterday. But that was yesterday. Today I went long immediately on the break of VWAP. My target was PDC with the 195.38 daily level as my stop. The price retraced and I was stopped out a minute later. There was some slippage on the stop so it was a -1R+ loss. Actually the setup wasn’t really that bad, it was just a terrible entry. Either take an aggressive entrance after the hammer was formed or a conservative one waiting for the show of VWAP support. I took somewhere in between and paid for it. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: My next live trade was with AMD. The 2nd 1min candle was quite bullish and there was a level at 28.60 that seem to be strong resistance. The 3rd candle formed a hammer so I went long at the break of this 28.60 level. I had a good feeling that VWAP would pull it up, but would it break VWAP? That I had no bias and I was going to pay my R to find out. But, if it did I thought it may make a good run so I liked the R/R. My target was PDC with my stop at the 28.49 level. AMD made another bullish hammer and tested VWAP and found resistance. I know in hind sight it looks like I should have bailed at B/E at that point, but it really only tested VWAP once. It looks like from the screen cap of the trade that two candles tested VWAP, but actually it happen to test VWAP at exactly 9:34 so it looks like both candles tested VWAP. The price hit my stop shortly after. I took a -1R+ loss as well, from this trade, though there was no slippage. My entry to stop was 12-13 cents. I have a 10c and 15c R button. I usually round to the more conservative, but after my AAPL stop out I went more aggressive. I have no specific rule against this, but it caused me almost to hit max loss today. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: I then took one SIM trade today on MU on a 5min ORB. It was my most profitable trade (SIM or live) in 2019. I thought it would cause serious FOMO that it wasn’t live, but it didn’t. It actually may me feel better. Score Card (live trades) AAPL AMD 75% 87% What I did good today: Took a really good trade with MU. What I am grateful from today? Not feeling salty about the two big stop outs. It is actually cool that I was 33% win-rate with two big stops and still positive. What do I need to improve on: Control emotions after a stop out. Watch for the price scale on your charts, I have been burned before from it.
  5. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 9 The first part of the chapter explains profits and losses in multiples of “R” and the importance of a predetermined stop loss level. Since I know these too well I will not add any notes. The rest of Chapter 9 discusses techniques for swing and position trading. I read it but nothing was note worthy for day trading. Chapter 10 Chapter 10 is a self-assessment test. The test has a possible 123 points and if you score below 80 you should stop trading until you finish the course. I can’t list the questions, due to copyright infringement, but I will list the title of each section so you can see what they are looking for. 1) Preparation, how well do you know your strengths and weaknesses. 2) Business Plan 3) System that fits me 4) 100 R-multiples with the system expectancy 5) 30R from each market type collect and examined 6) Use the system for the market type intended 7) Objectives that fit me 8] Position sizing algorithm to achieve my objectives 9) My major issues identified and fixed 10) Do top tasks regularly I scored high enough that the test suggested that I could keep trading, but I have a lot of work to do. The “a lot of work to do” is no surprise. Its amazing after 16 months with BBT and working ~15-20 hours a week on trading during that time, I feel that I am barely starting to get the hang of it and I know I have years to go. So that’s the end of volume 1. There are 5 volumes in the course.
  6. Yep you were right. I have changed my self analysis part of my journal to a more positive tone.
  7. Tuesday 8/06/2019 I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Getting only 5.5 hours of sleep every night is really catching up with me. My nerves were fine. I am so glad I took a trade with a good score card, my scores have been poor lately. I took 1 live trade with AAPL and 3 SIM trades. With the premarket I saw no reason not to keep AAPL and AMD as my two main focuses. I had no bias on AMD but I had a strong long bias on AAPL. I really liked the premarket. Lots of volume and AAPL gapped up, then gave half of it back, then slowly creeped up to test high of premarket right before the open. The last two 1min PM candles both tested the HOPM and found resistance. Huge volume for AAPL at the open. First, the price dropped and tested the 196.18 daily level twice finding support. Then shot up and plowed through the HOPM and the 197.09 daily level. Then the price dropped down and tested the HOPM and found support. I went long the moment it bounced from that level. My target was the 197.67 and my stop was 196.50. Since I entered the trade 20 seconds after the open on high volume I assumed I was going to get a bad fill (around 197). Plus there is a lot of slippage this close to the open so I took shares for a 75 cent R. This large of an R is not that uncommon this close to the open. But, I ended up with a great fill, so it looks a bit odd in hindsight taking so few shares. I used up 5 partials to make it to my target. My current goal is to only use four. Though my first 3 partials were all small. And I was happy I exited right at the peak. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: I then took three SIM trades today and was stopped out on each one. I have been stopped out on all of the last 6 SIM trades I have taken. I need to review my SIM trades to see where I can improve. Score Card AAPL 94% What I did good today: Good score card What I am grateful from today? I had laser focus after the open, just looked at AAPL with some glances at my SPY chart for insight. What do I need to improve on: Still need to work on the next step of improving my partialing. Need to keep it to 4 partials to my target. I need to review my SIM trades to see where I can improve.
  8. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 8 The danger of risk-taking occurs not only when you don’t recognize that you’re taking one, but also when you do not recognize the extent of the risk you are taking. Risk can be objectively stated using these methods: 1) The standard dev of your return over a 12 month period 2) The probability of success with a 95% confidence limits 3) Calibrating your ability to predict with your game plan 4) The trading salary and overhead If you are a net loser, then your risk of ruin is 100% if you continue to use the same strategy. Standard deviation of the percentage change in your account is a good indicator of the “risk value” of your account. The issue with applying this to my account (besides I have only been trading effectively for 6 months) is I have been keeping my fixed “R” very low while I am in the learning phase. In addition I have been essentially flat P/L each month for the last 6 months. So my standard deviation of my percent change is near zero. Thus I am taking on almost no risk. Which I knew, since I am keeping my “R” very low. But, I will use this later, when I increase my “R” to determine my risk. Then the course asks you to calculate your 95% confidence interval. I will use the last 3 months of data for 1min/2min ORBs. I took 93 trades with a success of 46%. So my interval is: =0.46+/-(1.96*sqrt((.46*.54)/92) = (56%, 36%). Thus there is a 95% confidence my success rate will be in between 36% and 56%. The course also asks the reader to retake the prediction test with their own system. Hopefully there will be better correlation. I am setting that up now, but since I will remember the trades after I set it up, I will test myself a couple of weeks later to make sure I don’t remember the trade. The last part of the chapter is a test you take to determine if trading is more like a business or a hobby. Obviously profits are more critical as a business, but if you are really enjoying it as a hobby, profits become less critical. Though I can’t list the questions due to copyright issues I will list one example so you can understand the test: I enjoy listening to financial discussions. Respond with a score from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The higher the score on all the questions, more likely it is a hobby. I scored a 37 on the test. They say 40 and over you consider trading a hobby. So I am borderline, when considering trading between hobby and a business.
  9. Monday 8/05/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. Quite disappointed in my trading today. When the markets are quiet I can barely focus on two stocks at the open. I usually concentrate on the one I like more at the open and glance at the other in case of a really good setup. Today was a volatile open and one of my focuses was AMD which I haven’t focused on in awhile. So today would be a very bad day for focusing on two stocks at once, but that is what I did. If I chose either AAPL or AMD I would have likely had a good trade. But by focusing on both I ruined both trades. Everything was gapping down. I did not have a bias on AAPL, though I was short bias on AMD due to very little resistance levels below its current price. I really liked that AMD gapped up the minutes before the open. This made me even more short biased. The price was respecting the 50MA-1min, so I was going short if it broke it. I had no idea I took a trade on AMD 5 seconds after the open. I knew it was close to the open, but until I watched the recording is when I realized how fast I took the trade. I did take it half shares because it was close to the open. My target was the low of premarket and my stop was the 28.25 daily level that it showed respect for already. Though R/R ~2 we are talking pennies here with a lot of slippage, so the R/R really was not that good. But I was hoping for a big drop if it broke the low of PM. Plus over 1 million shares traded in 5 seconds. Wow! The chart when I took the trade. I did make mistakes with the partials. I have to admit I seldom look at the spread with AMD I always assume it’s tight. So when the price dropped 8 cents I tool a partial which filled at almost B/E. So I looked and there was a 7 cent spread. So I waited for the spread to close to 1 cent and took another partial and got filled near B/E again. This flustered me a bit. Now looking at the recording I just happen to catch an upward spike, which happens a lot at the open. Then the price dropped to my target. I took another partial. Not the best fill but at least not at B/E. But I made the mistake of taking a small partial. I am at my target now, so why did I not take a large partial? Then the worse of my mistakes. I started eyeing AAPL and seeing a really good setup. But I was still in the AMD trade. The AMD price started to go against me and the plan was to use VWAP as my stop. But I was looking for an excuse to get out. So as soon as it “looked” like it was going to break VWAP, I got out. The moment I did the price went back in my favor and would have been a good trade. So by not focusing on one stock I ruined the trade. The entire trade (sorry about the image quality): So I was really liking the setup on AAPL and was focusing on it more than AMD, which was really poor trade management. So I bailed early on AMD but the entry on AAPL had already passed. If I was just watching APPL I would have gone long with the strong hammer when it broke VWAP. Instead I chased it and took it the moment I exited the AMD trade. The R/R was now bad. To make things worse I took a full share size which limits my stop to 197.70 daily level instead of the better 197.50 level. The price instantly went against me the moment I entered the trade and I was stopped out at my shortened stop level. If I took the correct share size I would not have been stopped out as it bounced from 197.50 and went higher all the way to my target at the 200MA-1min. Its been a couple of months since I have taken this bad of a trade. What it looked like when I took the trade: The entire trade: After the AAPL debacle I switched my platform to SIM. I saw AMD breaking the low of premarket again and L2 had some large bids so I shorted. VWAP was my stop again and honestly I didn’t have a target since there were no levels below. This is something I would only take on SIM. But as soon as I took the trade I realized I forgot to click the watchlist again so the trade was still live. I wanted to get out, but the price went in my favor quickly. Again I took a small partial instead of exiting or a large partial since this trade is a mistake. Then got out at B/E. If I never bailed out early on the first trade I would have had a 30 cent move. I then took three SIM trades and was stopped out on each one. That didn’t help my confidence. Score Card AMD AAPL AMD 80% 65% 87% What I did good today: I kept my losses to -1R How did I challenge myself today? Traded AMD, first time in awhile. What can I do better: Should concentrate on only one stock if there is a volatile open. Don’t look around at other charts for a next trade, while in the middle of a trade. Don’t leave a trade early to take another trade.
  10. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 6 Trading risk is defined objectively as the variability of performance of invested funds that go up and down in value. Better to define risk as the worst case loss in a trade which we label “R”. The big message: YOU MUST MAKE IT OK TO LOSE, IF YOU WANT TO WIN. Taking losses goes against our cultural training. A loser is not respected. The loser feels inferior. If you are unable to lose, you will lose. The “Loss Trap”. Chapter 7 There are at least 5 factors that are involved with the loss trap. 1) Framing. Framing guards are used to hide the loss from the trader. A) The loss is not a loss. B) the percentage frame. c) The criterion frame. 2) Need to explain. Trader uses superstition and social confirmation to relieve the anxiety. 3) Overconfidence. Most traders rather be right than make money. 4) Probability. We prefer the unwise gamble of holding onto the losing trade, than exited the certainty of the sure loss. 5) Commitment. When traders commit themselves to a position, their rational plans become fuzzy at the moment of commitment. Framing of our losses is another behavior we do so we won’t feel so bad about our losses. Like calling our losses a tax write off. We also like to think in percentages. Many of us would drive across town to save $5 on a $20 piece of clothing. But we would not think of driving across town to save that $5 on a $500 appliance. Compare these two gambles: Bet A: A 90% chance to win $400 and a 10% chance to lose $200 Bet B: A 30% chance to win $1600 and a 70% chance to lose $200. So of course I did the math before deciding and I see both bets are equivalent. But as the book later said, it predicted me correctly and I chose Bet A because the odds of winning something is higher. Then you are asked to consider if someone offered you to sell one of these bets for $250 which would you sell. The book says most would sell Bet A since the $1600 possible win in Bet B gives it more “value”. The course then asks for you to look at 25 different charts of actual stocks. Then predict where these stocks would be in 1 month and 5 months (up, down or unchanged). Thus you make 50 predictions. Then you rate each prediction on this scale: 0.33 I don't have a clue 0.5 Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it 0.65 I might bet on it 0.8 I would bet on it 0.9 A good bet After you make your predictions you check the appendix for accuracy. I was ~40% accurate which was about the same as the author. But, accuracy was not the point of the exercise. Instead it was to show the lack of correlation from your confidence rating and the actual result. Unless you are one of the few who actually have correlated data from your confidence rating and the result, then you shouldn’t change your share size based on your confidence level. Use a consistent R that is within your comfort level and optimized for the type of setup you are using. It should not be changed on the fly. They ask you to split all you predictions into 5 groups (highest confidence, next highest, etc.). Then compare that confidence rating with the actual accuracy to see the lack of correlation. Below are my results: Group Confidence Level Accuracy 0.87 0.3 0.74 0.6 0.65 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.364 0.5 Actually the middle three tiers actually correlate well. The top and bottom tier really show the lack of trust I should have in position sizing due to confidence level. I am using fixed risk in my trading anyway, but I always assumed with experience I would start changing my risk based on my confidence. I am now thinking I should never trade that way. When people believe something they manage to find evidence to support their belief. More information does not increase the accuracy of expert prediction, just the confidence in his/her predictions. We weight probability more at the extremes. An increase from 0% (no chance) to 5% (some chance) is huge, but an increase from 30% to 35% is small. Same from believing that the increase from 95% chance to 100% is large. That is why most of us would prefer a sure profit of $900 than a 95% chance of a $1000 profit. The same goes with risk aversion. Most of us would choose a 95% chance of losing $1000 than a sure loss of $900. Both these decisions go against the fundamental law of trading. By choosing the sure win, you are not letting your winners run. But not picking the sure loss you are letting your losers run. If you make the first decision 100 times on trades and the second decision 100 times, you will have a loss of -$5000. If you go against your natural inclination over the next and choose the better profit/risk you would gain $5000 in the next 200 trades. The cost of backing out at the moment of commitment (enter a trade) is small monetarily, but large psychologically. Time starts to go by faster and fears seem much larger.
  11. Live trading summary for week ending 8/02/19. An unusual week. The first three days I was on a family vacation with spotty WIFI so I didn’t trade even SIM. I traded Thursday but only took one live trade. Friday I did take two trades, which I thought were live but were in SIM. So I only took one live trade this week. So no stats. I increased the risk this week to $30 risk/trade. Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open. MU and FB are marginal at the open. AMD and TSLA are possibilities at the open. But I don’t know TSLA well, I will need to trade that stock in SIM or half share size first, to get to understand its personality. AMD’s personality has changed at the open since the 2 months ago when I use to trade the stock. So I will need to keep share size small. Here is my plan for this week: Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Both MU and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data. Keep $30 risk per trade. Choose TSLA or AMD to be the second focus at the open based on PM data. Go small share size or even SIM on TSLA until you better understand the personalities. Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM Don’t add to any trade, even winners.
  12. Agreed!! Now I need to conjure up the courage to take a trade like that.
  13. Friday 8/02/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. 45 minutes before the open I was going through my checklist and that is when I noticed Centerpointe has no shorts available on any stock. I called them and they said they are aware of the issue and are working on it. 15 minutes before the open I decided to restart DAS in case I need to do that after they fixed the issue. But still no shorts. I made sure to change my order templates back to live after the restart. But, since everything was setup and my two stocks I want to focus on were already in the right charts I did not touch my watch-list table. Thus the order template did not get activated in the montage. So I accidentally traded only in SIM today. About 10 minutes before the open we had shorts available. If I didn’t see shorts by the open I was planning on placing an application to IB today. I took two SIM trades (though I thought they were live until I looked at my P/L) with MU. I liked a lot of things in the premarket, but only focused on AAPL and MU. Both were too choppy at the open so my first live trade actually a 5min ORBU on MU. The 4th 1min candle was really strong then the price consolidated forming a little ABCD. I went long on the break of the 4th candle. PDC was my target and my stop was the 200MA-1min. I did take a quick partial at the HOTD, but instead of using my original S/O or B/E I moved my stop to the 42.85 tech level. That was bad and I got stopped out for a loss. If I kept the original, I would not have been S/O. Or B/E for a profit. When the price rebounded and broke the high of the day again I went long. But my nerves were not so good now after the S/O and I took partial profits quite poorly. Too bad the price reached and passed my target. It was still a nice winner, too bad it was on SIM. Even though I thought it was live I will not add it to my sample set. It’s time I stop doing that. I made a mistake and I won’t act like I didn’t. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: What I did good today: My winner was 2X times my loser. How did I challenge myself today? I thought I took a 5min ORB live. What can I do better: Need to regroup after a stop out. Need to double check montage is set for live trading before the open.
  14. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 5 In order to duplicate successful trading, you need to adequately perform all the tasks that are part of that success. This has been determined to be 15 different tasks. Preparation tasks: Developing self-insight. Self-insight allows one to capitalize on strengths and overcome weaknesses. Goal setting is a very important part of self-insight. If you have trouble with self-esteem, then you will probably transfer that issue to being unable to take market losses. Developing a low-risk game plan. A trading mistake means not following your rules. One must have written rules. If you don’t have rules, everything you do is a mistake. Top Trading Tasks: 1) Daily Self-Analysis. Trading involves human performance and that performance can be objectively measured in terms of profits and losses. You cannot hide from your performance record. Determine how you feel before each trading day and give yourself a rating. Check for correlation to your trading, then trade or not trade accordingly. Also perform a dialogue with yourself, this will be taught later in the course. Are there any internal conflicts? If so correct them before you trade. The optimal state for self-analysis: be open and honest, be thorough, be very aware. 2) Daily Mental Rehearsal. Mental rehearsal is how one prevents mistakes. You need to anticipate what can go wrong and rehearse it so that you avoid mistakes when your brain is under the reduced capacity of stress. There are two types of mental rehearsal. First part is to develop a worst case contingency plan as part of your came plan for trading. The second type of mental disaster is to ask yourself “what may cause me to make a major mistake in my trading today and break my rules?” 3) Focus and Intention. You attract to yourself what you think about. This is done through internal guidance. As you establish a strong relationship with your internal guidance, it will tend to give you what you ask for as long as it is in your best interest. Need laser focus on what you want. 4) Developing a low risk idea. A low risk idea is an idea with a positive expectancy that’s traded at an exposure level that allows you to survive the worst possible contingency in the short run so that you can achieve the long-term expectancy of the system. All of the research and thinking should be done before the trade occurs. You must have predetermined risk before you enter a trade. 5) Stalking. The essence of “stalking” is to find the best possible price for entry. Waiting for the right moment will save you money and lower your overall risk. Jump down to a lower time frame to find a better entry signal. Opportunity will come to you if you are patient and wait for it. When you are stalking you need into the flow of the market. 6) Action. All the strategy work should be done ahead of time so that you don’t need to think about what you should do. The action should be a total commitment (with no thought what so ever) to getting it done (entering the position). See the signal, recognize that it is familiar, feel good about it and act without question. 7) Monitoring. Which is two subtasks. Detailed monitoring involves paying detailed attention to the pulse of the market while getting ready to take action (adding, aborting or taking profits). The trader should be alert, vigilant and suspicious. Overview monitoring occurs when the trade is running in your favor and the trader can step back and monitor. The worse mistake a trader can make during the monitoring phase is to rationalize and distort data according to expectations. The purpose of monitoring the market is to pay attention to market signals. 8] Abort. There are two action like stages, that occur after the monitoring. These stages are “abort” and “take profits. In executing trades, the golden rule of trading, cut your losses short and let your profits run, comes into play. Controlling risk involves aborting and taking profits under the appropriate conditions. Three important beliefs about aborting. If the market goes against you, then that is the most critical time to get out. When the original reason for a trade no longer exists, get out. And when you are uncertain, get out. When time is against you, you probably should be in a better position, so get out. Your primary advantage to trading is that at any time you don’t have to be in the market. You can be picky. Use that advantage. 9) Take Profits. There are many more reasons to exit a trade than there are for an entry, so most good traders have multiple exits. If the reason for your trade no longer applies, then take profits. Take profits if your objective has been reached. Take profits if a climatic move in your favor. 10) Daily Debriefing. This is critical to correcting mistakes and making sure you don’t repeat them. A trading mistake means not following your rules. First, avoid self-recrimination. Instead, resolve not to repeat that mistake again. Second, replay the trade in your mind. Prior to the mistake you reached a choice point. Third, mentally go back to that choice point and review your options. Fourth, for each possible option, determine what outcome would have been if you had taken it. Fifth, once you have found at least three options with favorable outcomes, mentally rehearse them. Summarize the mistakes and new choices in writing (journal). 11) Show gratitude for what went right today. Acknowledge what went well and be grateful for it. This could mean you are grateful for a losing trade that taught you something valuable. Or that you didn’t break your rules today. Make a list. You will be surprised the positive effect it will have on your trading. Regular gratitude will reinforce your ability to use the Law of Attraction to increase your trading profits. 12) Periodic review. Markets change and you change. You need to review and check if your rules are still appropriate for the current market. If you make several trades a day you should review once a month. If you only take a trade three or four times a week, then review each quarter. Also, drawdowns and a certain number of losses should trigger a review, system your system may have become obsolete. Current market conditions are reported regularly in Tharp’s Thoughts. 13) Being out of the market. This is the most important part of the model. Top traders who last lead well-balanced lives. You have certain needs. If you don’t take care of them outside the market you will try and satisfy them in the market. That will cause losses in the long run.
  15. Thursday 8/01/2019 I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. WIFI was poor in our hotel room, the last 3 days, so I couldn’t even trade SIM. But it was a family vacation so I probably shouldn’t have been watching the markets. I have not taken a live trade in a week. I took one live trade with AAPL and one SIM trade with MU. I only liked AAPL in the premarket. I had MU on my secondary chart but was not planning to pay attention to it until 9:33am. I had no bias on direction on AAPL. Though I would likely need a hammer or weak first candle and pull back on the second 1min candle to go short. To go long my setup was simple, if it breaks the high of premarket <1min with high volume go long. I was betting on the 200MA-5min being a magnet to pull the price up. I usually would shy away with that big resistance in front of it. But I have been noticing the 200MA-5min is really good price magnet very near the open <1min. Though it may bounce and retrace to stop out. It’s a good place to take a partial and get out at B/E, where the price usually keeps retracing. Though it has a lower chance of working out it has a lower chance of a full -1R stop out. So, I took the trade when it looked like it broke the HOPM. Though looking at the chart now, it actually didn’t and I entered the trade a little early. My target was the 216.50 level and my stop was all the way down to the 200MA-1min, so I had to go a little light on the shares. The price touched the 215 level twice and took some restraint not to take a partial there. Then I almost got stopped out. But, I waited for the correct first partial at the 215.23 level. Then I was about to take another quick partial at the 200MA-5min, but the there was a really big ask (unusual for AAPL where L2 is not very useful at the open) for 215.50, so I waited. The price popped and I took another partial. Less than a minute later the price had a big and instant spike down through my B/E stop. So I took another partial, since I was losing faith in the trade. Once it broke back through the 215.23 level I exited. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: I took a SIM trade on MU, trying to practice my 5min ORB. MU opened strong and I saw AMD was really strong as well and I was hoping MU would follow. MU created an ABCD and I went long at the break of the 5min candle body. The same story with the 200MA-5min. Was it a hard resistance level and I shouldn’t take the trade or a good magnet for the price? Since this was SIM it was worth a try. My target was 45.81 level and my stop was VWAP and the 45.31 daily level. I took my first partial at the 200MA-5min then partialed when the price seemed to halt. I finally exited when we had 3 LL/LHs in a row. Score card AAPL 87% What I did good today: Waited for the correct first partial on AAPL. How did I challenge myself today? Traded with the higher risk per trade ($30) What can I do better: Wait for the proper entry.
  16. Great job with the interview. I just watched it. Congrats on being the top equities trader on the DAS challenge!!
  17. Live trading summary of the month of July. So by the end of June I have gone 8 months without a positive month and I have had a flat P/L for the last 5 months. Three days before the end of last month I was thinking seriously ending the month early and SIM trading to lock in a profitable month and solid score card. I thought that was silly and was thinking even if I lose every trade for the next 3 days I will still have a positive P/L. But that was assuming I stuck to a -1R loss. I under estimated my self-sabotaging behaviors. The following 3 days were a disaster, losing every trade and not holding to the -1R loss. Thus June was another flat P/L month and mediocre score card. So Thursday morning I was thinking, “not again.” And decided to take SIM trades only the next two days and lock in a positive P/L. Which I did. So finally, my ninth month trading live, is green. Kind of funny that those two SIM days were my best two trading days of the month. Would they have been as good if I was trading live? My win% (for live trades) for the month was solid at 58%. I added quite a few SIM trades this month on 5/10/15 min ORBs and saw an improvement as the month progressed. Using Van Tharp method for analyzing trading systems, the 17 live trades in July with my 1min/2min ORB setup has a very good rating. But that is a small sample set. The 3 months previous has a rating of poor (but tradable) due to the 5 trades I let the loss pass -1R. All it takes is two trades a month, that you don’t stick to your stop, to go from a “very good” system to a “poor” rating. I am still trading with Centerpoint and it has been OK, but not great. I haven’t experienced any more tech issues since the second week. The execution speed is OK. I only trade very liquid stocks so I wonder why I get different speed results from day to day. Not impressed by the short list. Since they have a “hard to short” app, their easy to short list is not extensive. I remember when both ROKU and CGC were dropping like a rock one day. I had neither available to short and I hear people with IB making great trades on those stocks. In July I read (actually listened to) The Willpower Instinct which was recommended by Tommy. I wrote a review for it. https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/1278-book-review-of-willpower-instinct/ I also listed to Trading beyond the Matrix by Van K. Tharp. The book is actually free on their website: https://www.vantharp.com/trading-beyond-the-matrix-the-red-pill-for-traders-and-investors-soft-cover It’s worth a read, but does read like an advertisement for their courses. With that said, it worked, because I am taking one of their courses. I started taking the course (home study version): Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders. To place some accountability on myself to finish the course I started to post my reading notes and assignments online. Please see my link if you are curious about the course: https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/1286-van-tharp-institute-peak-performance-course-for-traders-my-journey-through-the-course/ Stats for February/March/April/May/June/July: February March April May June July Total # of live trades 21 34 36 36 38 19 Hulk Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 Max Loss Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 Broke max trade rule 1 1 0 0 0 0 Hoy Key Mistakes 1 1 0 0 1 2 Score card 81% 81% 84.5% 85.8% Only half the trades as usual since I had 9 SIM only days this month. My two hot key mistakes was issues switching back and forth to SIM. My score card was lower than I had hoped but at least an improvement from last month. Goals for July: 1) Don’t go hulk. 2) Learn to control your emotions after a loss. 3) The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month. 4) Increase risk per trade from $25 back to $30. 5) Keep improving health. 6) Follow the new 11 rules I specified in my June 28 weekly 7) Keep making SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs
  18. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 3 The most important trait that a winning trader can have? Personal responsibility. Ed Sakota in Market Wizards said, ”people get exactly want they want out of the markets.” This chapter has two stories describing the above statement. One who got rich and lost it in the dot-com bubble and who still blames everyone else. The other example is the author who got into a car accident. A witness would clearly see it was the other driver’s fault. But was it? The author hated the car he drove and was actually receptive to have the car destroyed. He was shocked to realize that yes he was likely also at fault for the accident. Then it became clear how one totally creates their world. Personal responsibility is the most important characteristic for the person who wanted to transform himself or herself into a good trader or anything else for that matter. If you believe in personal responsibility, you could change. The author plays a marbles game with his traders “in training”. The marbles are randomly picked and are labeled as winners and losers of different degree. It is designed to give the player an average return of 0.45R. So it would be a really good trading system. 1/3 of the class go bankrupt. 1/3 lose money and about 1/3 get rich. The unusual differences has to do with position sizing and is not the point of the course yet. The point here is some of the losers blame the person who picked the marbles from the bag and had a losing streak. Thus not taking personal responsibility. They did not recognize their mistakes and thus will not learn from them. So they will repeat their mistake over and over. The best thing a trader can do, when things go wrong, is to determine how he or she produced those results. Then determine what the choice point was and give yourself other options to take when you encounter a similar choice point in the future. Daily debriefing (journaling): Acknowledge the mistake, determine the circumstances that caused the mistake, then mentally rehearse an alternative (more useful behavior). Assignment: listen to Rhonda Byrne’s The Secret. It took a few days for my request through the local library to go through. I have listen to some of it already. When I finish I will come back to this page and update it. The secret is the “law of attraction,” Which is essentially positive thinking gets positive results. But it pushes two thoughts with that. One is negative thoughts attract negative results as well and that this law of attraction has some new age “power” to it. Forgetting about the latter for the moment I have seen the former in action. I meant one of the luckiest people and worked with him in graduate school then the cooperate world for about 12 years. It’s amazing how luck is always on his side and he always makes the assumption that luck will be on his side. After 12 years I see how it actually works. It’s two major traits. One there must be dozens (or more) little decisions made every day that are very binary. He will always lean to making the decision that may bring something positive, though the odds are very small. I will tend to do the opposite and make decisions that may cause something negative to happen. After say a week, a few hundred of these choices have occurred. One or two pan out or a combo of several and something reasonable go his way and the opposite for me. Since it is impossible to follow the repercussions of all these choices, it looks like good or bad luck. The second trait is an open mind to different possibilities. If you think that something positive may happen, when an opportunity, though it may be outside the box, crosses your path, he would see it and act. I would be close minded and not see it. There is actually some data for this. I once read about an experiment where volunteers were gathered. One set of people considered themselves usually the lucky type and the second group considered themselves unlucky. Everyone was given a newspaper and asked to count the number of pictures in the newspaper. The unlucky group usually took 2 or 3 minutes to count all the pictures. The lucky group usually took around 10 seconds. Because the lucky group all noticed a big sign on page two stating, “there are 46 pictures in the newspaper.” The unlucky group were focused on just looking for pictures and never noticed the sign. You can imagine how that applies to day trading. So you need to make yourself luckier by using the power of attraction.
  19. Live trading summary for week ending 7/26/19. Traded full share size ($25 risk/trade). Only traded live for the first 3 days of the week. Since the first 3 days of next week I will be trading from a hotel I will limit it to SIM. Thus I am calling Friday 7/26 the last day of the month. Since it is the last day of the month I was going to be highly prone to self-sabotaging behaviors. I usually have a positive P/L going into the last few days of the month where I give it all back. So just to prevent this behavior this month I stopped trading live the last two days of the month. So I only took 4 live trades this week. My score card for the week was better at 88%. I only live traded AAPL but I did take quite a few SIM trades which were much more successful than last week. My last two days of the week, which was SIM only, were my two best trading days of the month. Would it have been if I was trading live? Back test data shows primarily the same as last week. AAPL in play and MU, FB and TSLA are possibilities at the open. As for TSLA I will need to trade that stock in SIM first, to get to understand its personality. Since I am trading SIM Monday-Wednesday of next week I will reevaluate what is in play Wednesday night. Here is my plan for this week: Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Both MU and FB are marginal. They should be secondary focuses. Choose order based on premarket and previous day action. Increase risk to $30 risk per trade. Trade SIM Monday-Wednesday due to unreliable WiFi. Take advantage of this to improve partialing and trade TSLA. Don’t add to any trade, even winners.
  20. Thanks Mark, The test is $100 on their website. I did get a 25% discount by buying the course. I think the test is only valuable if you happen to be taking the course since they send you a three page letter explaining what part of the course pertains to that specific poor score that I have. Yes, I thought the same thing, Andrew would do amazingly well on this exam. I am also reading a book, Market Mind Games that also describes an ideal trader and you could easily see they are describing someone like Andrew. They are concerned about a high MT score because if you are not trading for money you are probably trading for the excitement or may have a gambling issue. Money is definitely a factor why I want to learn to trade, but a lot of it is because I like the financial markets. I like analyzing charts. I like to think what other people are thinking and what they may do. I don't think this is harmful, but it gave me a low MT score.
  21. Friday 7/25/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. I took one SIM trade with FB. I was looking at TSLA as well at the open. I honestly wasn’t looking at much else since I really like FB’s premarket. The scenario I was most hoping for is FB drop down to the $200 level and bounce back and I would go long when it broke the PDC. FB did just that but 6 seconds after the open. At 5 seconds before the open it dropped and bounced off of $200 and at 6sec after the open it broke the PDC. This is too early for even me to take a trade. I waited another 10 seconds for the fluctuations to die down and then I went long with a large stop. My stop was all the way down to the $200 level since it is still so close to the open. My target the 203.43 daily level. But, I knew in my gut that target was too far away and more likely the high of PM was all I would get. Again, like yesterday, even though I knew that it was a SIM trade my heart beat like it was real. Now my objective was to take decent partials. WOW! I pushed my patience to the extreme. This was tough for me even in SIM. I took only two small partials on the way to the PM high. This was a $1 move. I usually take 5 partials by then. Then I waited two minutes and a nice ABCD was setting up. But the wait was killing me since if I exit then I have a one and done, but if it reverses, since I took small partials, this is a small win only. So I took another partial. The market was nice enough to teach me a lesson and 1 second after I took another partial the price popped. I thought this was about all the move I would get from FB and partialed out. But, over all I thought it was an improvement on my partialling patience. Oddly, even though it was SIM, it was a big enough trade to call one and done, so I couldn’t get myself to take another SIM trade. The chart when I took the trade. The entire trade: What I did good today: Created a workable trading scenario so I can react fast at the open. I don’t have to think, just follow the plan. How did I challenge myself today? Tried to be more patient with the partialing. What I did bad today: I really like this trade. I am going to give the complaining a rest today. What can I do better: Keep working on the partialing. But, it was a good start today.
  22. Thursday 7/25/2019 I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning, a bit of a headache. My nerves were fine. I received my results of Van Tharp Institute psychological inventory test (176 question test). Wow, my results were really bad. Bottom 13%. I can’t imagine how bad it would have been if I took the trade last year before I improved with my discipline. It’s essentially telling me I shouldn’t trade. But too late I’m hooked. Plus I see personality improvement in other areas of my life so I am going to keep at it. See link for gory details: https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/1286-van-tharp-institute-peak-performance-course-for-traders-my-journey-through-the-course/ I took three SIM trades with FB, TSLA and AAPL. I decided this morning to trade SIM the rest of the week. I was concerned about it, since the first 3 days of next week I will be in hotels and was planning trading SIM due to using just a laptop and uncertain WIFI. So trading SIM today and tomorrow means a week without live trades. The reason for trading SIM is as follows. I am usually positive profits going into the last few days of each month. Then my self-sabotage behavior kicks in and I give all the profits back and ending up flat for the last 5 months. Last month I was up big enough that even if I stop out every trade my last few days I will still be positive. But, my self-sabotage behavior was too strong and it found a way to give all the profits back. I REALLY didn’t want the same ending this month. So the simple solution, don’t trade. Call it a month and say yes after 9 months of trading live I have a positive P/L at the end of the month. Since I knew I would be trading SIM most of next week it was planned that the end of the month of July would be tomorrow (Friday). Today I thought I would like to trade TSLA at the open, since it has been in play lately but I want some SIM time on it before trading live. My other focus was FB since it was definitely in play. FB setup first with a nice hammer in the first minute, but it was still a red candle. Waited until the 2nd 1min candle was firmly white and went long. I gave it a large stop since the price movements were large this morning. My stop was the bottom of the candle. I would essentially bail on the trade if the candle goes red. I had a target of the high of premarket which gave a R/R~3 but there was the 200MA-1min standing in the way at 1R. But, the volume was so large I thought it was worth the risk. What’s odd about this trade and the next two is the moment I entered the trade I forgot I was in SIM. You can probably tell by my usual poor partialing L. But, that made today’s trading more useful than the usual SIM day. I took partials at the 50MA then 200MA. It never quite made it to my target and I exited when the price broke back through the 200MA. What it looked like when I took the trade: The entire trade: The next trade was a 5min ORB with AAPL. I like that it bounced from the PDC so it made a good stop level and shorted soon after the bounce. But within a minute I got out at B/E. Actually, if I would have held on, the price never broke my stop and would have been a good trade. My final trade was an ABCD on TSLA. The price was holding onto the 231.39 daily level that it respected (bounced from) multiple times. After it completed a red candle I shorted. My stop was the daily level (231.39) and my target was the 227.09 daily level. The R/R ~4 which is remarkable for the setups I usually take. The price action is much more volatile than I am use to causing me to partial even worse than usual. The price actually reached my target where I exited due to lack of shares. What I did good today: Took 3 good trades. How did I challenge myself today? Once in the trade it felt real so got some good training. What I did bad today: I feel a little wimpy trading in SIM. What can I do better: Since I will be on SIM the next 4 trading days I will work on experimenting with my partialing and trading TSLA at the open. I wish I thought of working on my partialing today. It would have been a really good day for it. It’s possible I may not get any trades that run in the next 4 days that I can practice on.
  23. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course Vol 1: How to use Risk Chapter 2 What happens to you in the market is a terrific mirror to what is going on inside your head. You will not be able to duplicate the success of the best traders until you duplicate their thinking. The main assignment for the chapter is to take the 176 question Investment Psychological Profile. I did quite poorly on the test, ranking in the bottom 13% of the traders who took it. I thought I have improved, psychologically, in the last 15 months. So I can’t imagine how I would have scored on the test last year. Here are the results:
  24. Hi Ogon, Are you using the DAS platform? There are ways to very quickly set your share size very accurately to risk using DAS. This method will use the risk per share (specific to that trade) and your fixed risk per trade (dollar or % of BP). See Kyle's very eloquent way to have DAS calculate this: I have a much less efficient way that I use, but it works for me since it is just one click. But I will switch to Kyle's method one day.
  25. Wednesday 7/24/2019 I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. I was looking forward to the opening bell. Wow, I wish I knew why. I seem to have little understanding of my nerves. I would like to mention that I just started taking the home study version of the Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders. I really need to improve issues with my trading (fear, self-sabotage, over-trading, etc.). I think this course could really help. To place some accountability on myself to finish the course I plan to post my reading notes and assignments online. Hopefully, the info provided may help others as well. See link: I took one live trade with AAPL. Then three SIM trades: FB and NVDA. I was focusing on FB and AAPL at the open. FB was in play so I replaced MU to watch it at the open. I created my opening scenarios again. The long scenario for AAPL was identical to yesterday, where I got stopped out. But, the plan was to go long if it broke 200MA-1min, 50MA-1min, VWAP and finally the high of premarket on volume. It did just that, but on just enough volume to call it in play (300K). But, I was concerned due to my stop out yesterday. Then it dropped twice to test the high of premarket and bounced both times. So I felt better about it and went long. Target was PDC with S/O at the 200MA-1min. R/R~2. The price did make it to my target but didn’t move much after going red to green. I exited the last of my position when it went back green to red. What the chart looked like when I took the trade: The complete trade: I then took 3 SIM trades. One big loss, one small win and one solid win. The big loss was due to not treating the SIM trade as real. I got a bad fill and thus my share size and R/R were now wrong. So I needed to exit trade immediately. Instead, since it was SIM, I stayed in for a -1.8R loss. My solid win would have been a big win, but I decided to experiment with adding to my position. This seems not to work for me, so I thought I would try it in SIM. SIM confirmed it. I had a big winner, then I added to my position and the price instantly reversed hard and I lost almost half of my profit. Score card for my live trade. What I did good today: Created viable scenarios to follow at the open. Waited for a confirmation that it was not going to reverse back through the entry level. How did I challenge myself today? Took the same trade as yesterday even though I got burned with that setup yesterday. What I did bad today: The usual. Partialing could be better. What can I do better: Need to wait for the target for the 4th partial. Not really pushing myself that hard. This is an incremental improvement it shouldn’t be that hard.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.