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Rob C

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  1. Live trading summary for week ending 9/06/19. My best score card week since I have been tracking it at 90%. It was a short week and one day I only took SIM trades. So I only took 5 live trades this week. I have not looked at my P/L all week. I will look at it at the end of the month. I took three SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) all were pretty good. Though my score card was really good and my win% was also good, I am a bit disappointed in my trade management. Both Thursday and Friday were 3 really good trades that I know I made very little profit. I am very poor at taking partial profits and on these two trades on Thursday I ran out of shares and missed most of the run. Either trade could have been the trade that makes your week, but instead they were just small profitable trade. The trade on Friday was an 8R move. I should catch at least 4R of it, even with my poor profit taking. But, with my especially bad profit taking, a hot key mistake and taking half shares due to being Friday I ended up with 1R profit. That’s quite concerning. I reviewed my trades again for last month, my first negative P/L month in the last 7. And I see three issues. First there were multiple trades with fills so bad I needed to immediately bail on the trade. I didn’t and took 1.5 to 2R S/Os. Next issue is my partialing got worse. I usually take 5 partials on the way to my target. I was trying to decrease it to 4 last month. Instead I increased it to 6. And the final issue was inconsistent risk. Most of my winning trades last month I took half share size. Most of my losing trades I took full share size. I took the half share size due to a new stock I don’t know well or that it is Friday. I then analyzed my partial profit taking for the last 6 weeks and compared it to the previous 6 weeks: June-July July-August S/O 29% 37% Only reach 1st partial 29% 13% Reach Target 22% 18% The most notable piece of data is my 1st partial went from meaningful to useless for profit. The next interesting info is I stop out, without reaching my first partial, 37% of the time. But my win rate is 50%. So where is the 13% discrepancy? I checked this and almost all my trades during that time period, that make to the 1st partial are losers. I let it go passed the B/E either intentional so I don’t miss the rebound or unintentional l (a large slide). I did take some non-AAPL trades, this week, with BABA. Finally, Centerpointe has shares to short for ROKU. Or what they call “easy” to short shares. Back test data shows AAPL, BABA, MU and AMD all in play at the open. So I have plenty to choose from next week. Here is my plan for this week: P/L will be closed and not looked at until the end of the month to help focus on process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Take heavier partial profits, assume it’s a scalp at the open. AMD, BABA and, MU are in play at the open. Choose the secondary focus based on premarket. Watch out for volume on BABA. Don’t take a trade unless you see 100k in one minute. Keep $30 risk per trade. Even though my score card allows me to increase to $42. I need to keep my risk more constant until I fix my partialling issues. Create another button with 1/8 share size Sell/Cover to use on 1st partial. The ¼ is too large unless it is a scalp. Try to exit at B/E after a 1st partial. Don’t look for the rebound. Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM Don’t add to any trade, even winners. Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.
  2. Friday 9/06/2019 I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Taking half share size today because it’s Friday. I took 1 live trades this morning, with BABA. So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, ROKU and LULU on my 5min ORB watchlist. Centerpointe now finally has shares to short for ROKU!! I was quite surprise to see them this morning. I feel much more comfortable having ROKU on my watchlist now. BABA daily looks interesting, maybe on the verge of a break out. Then BABA had a nice drop 5min before the open. But I still had no bias at the open. APPL was interesting that it had a lot of tech levels above the current price and none below. I also, had no bias. If the price dropped there are no levels to stop it, but if it goes higher there are levels to attract it. Both stocks were setting up so my attention was split. BABA really respected the PDC in premarket so I was waiting to go short if it broke through it. The price broke through it and I shorted, or so I thought. Since my mind was on long AAPL at the same time and oddly both stocks had approximately the same R value for the trade and similar stock price, I accidentally went long. Except for my issue switching to and from SIM I have not had a hot key mistake in 5 months. But, I was pretty quick to realize it and correct it. There was only 3 seconds from sending the buy order, selling the buy order and sending and executing the short. Sadly, I lost 10 cents on both trades. So I was already 20 cents in the hole. When setting up the trade I was planning to aim for the 176.50 level as my target and the 179.25 PM level as my stop. But that’s a R/R~8 which is too big and unrealistic. BTW it did reach that target in 4 minutes J So I chose the 177.94 daily level as my target. After the hot key mistake my R/R<2 but since I really like the 176.50 target and I was taking half shares (it’s Friday) I thought the risk was still fine. Again, I did take a lot of partials but kept them small. I still had almost half my shares after 4 partials. Then once I reached 3R I partialled heavily and all out at 177. I don’t look at my P/L anymore, but I can tell even with the hotkey mistake the trade was a +2R or better. Instead of switching to SIM I rewarded myself, for the one and done, to turn off my platform and help get the kids get ready for school. Score card (live trade) hotkey mistakes are not included in my score card. BABA 93% What I did good today: Traded something besides AAPL. Took a good setup. What I am grateful from today? Recovered from hotkey mistake quickly. What do I need to improve on: Taking partial profits of course.
  3. Thanks. Luckily they were both long. That helped.
  4. Perfect entry on HOME. It's one of those entries that you point to after you see the chart at the end of the day and say, "that is where I wished I entered."
  5. Thursday 9/05/2019 I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. Still felt good enough to trade live. I took 2 live trades this morning, with AAPL and BABA. What was unusual is I took both trades at the same time. So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and CIEN on my 5min ORB watchlist. I only had two levels on my AAPL chart, the 211.85 daily and the HOPM. The price popped above both on high volume. I have not been doing well with opening pull backs or trades without a close target. This trade was both. So I waited. The price fluctuation calmed down and the HOPM was acting as a really good support. So I went long with 213 as the target and the 211.85 daily level as my stop. I took a quick partial then the price started to move 2min later. Then I took 3 partials in rapid succession. I think this was mostly due to being in a second trade with BABA which I will discuss later. This is my first live double trade in 7 months. I have been double trading a lot in SIM and it has been OK. Four minutes after that the price popped again and I took two partials. AAPL went on a big run after my last partial which I missed. I still have a lot to learn on patience. Almost immediately after I took the AAPL trade, BABA had a really nice setup. I first thought too bad I will miss it. Then I thought I have been managing dual trades on SIM quite well. Actually, I have been managing it a bit better than single because I don’t (can’t) look at every tick. BABA created a really nice hammer. The price found support on the 200MA-1min and 176.58 tech level and bounced to create the hammer. I went long when it broke the 177 daily level. My target was the 177.94 daily level and my stop the 200MA-1min. I entered the trade just before the 1min mark so I can call it a 1min ORB. Price had a slight pull back then started moving up. My partialing wasn’t much better than my AAPL trade. But nerves from my first dual trade made my bad partialing even worse. Too bad there were some nice levels to take partials on. And I missed the big run on BABA as well. Score card (live trades): AAPL BABA 90% 92% What I did good today: Two good setups. What I am grateful from today? Was able to manage two trades simultaneously. What do I need to improve on: The partialing was bad even for me. Either trade, managed correctly, could have been the one trade that made my whole week.
  6. Wednesday 9/04/2019 I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. I couldn’t shake the grogginess out, plus I had stress from forces outside day-trading today. So I decided to trade SIM only. Looks like I didn’t miss much trading SIM today. AAPL gave me nothing at the open. I did take 1 SIM trade with BABA. So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and SBUX on my 5min ORB watchlist. AAPL was not setting up and bounced between PM levels (high and low) for several minutes. Even though the volume was good the price couldn’t break high or low. Then BABA created a huge wicked hammer at 9:34. All the 1min MAs, VWAP and a daily level were all bunched together. The spread tightened as it broke those levels and I went long and got a good fill. I gave it a large stop of 50 cents all the way to the PM low since BABA is so wicky. The PM high was my target though the R/R is less than 2. But I thought it worth the risk since there were no levels above it and it could run. I quickly took a partial at the HOTD, then waited for 12 minutes for the price to do anything. The price wicked down below VWAP 6 times, but I already know BABA enough to know that’s normal. Finally, the price moved a little bit and I snuck in two partials. Then the volume went from low to none and I got out at B/E. It was very interesting to watch BABA during that time. SPY had some really big moves and I didn’t see any effect on BABA. Also, more than once I saw really big asks at prices ~10-20 cents above current and they didn’t seem to have any effect on the price as well. But, time and sales had some correlation. I have been really focusing on T/S and seeing very little correlation with AAPL but at least for today I saw the move about 30sec ahead when 4 reasonably large buys at the ask went through. So that was interesting. What I did good today: Knew to trade SIM only today. What I am grateful from today? That I traded SIM. Maybe I would have been stupid and tried to trade AAPL live this morning. I would have been seriously chopped up. What do I need to improve on: Now that I am having some success trading SIM on 3/5/10 min ORBs, I noticed they are a lot more fun than trading at the open which is traded on nerves and speed.
  7. I really like you SNAP trade and your entrance right on the new 1min high after creating a line of support. What was your level for your final target? I can't make it out on chart. Was it the $16.50 level?
  8. Tuesday 9/03/2019 I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. I took 2 live trades with AAPL and 4 SIM trades. I was originally very disappointed with my trading today. I thought I didn’t follow my plan. But now after seeing the video of my trades, it wasn’t so bad. So AAPL and BABA were on my market open watchlist with MU and AMD on my 5min ORB watchlist. My trading plan for the day: Since I performed my weekly backtest data collection on Friday and forgot what my conclusions were, I reviewed it this morning. Based on the data my plan for today was watch for AAPL and BABA at the open but only trade with a hammer in the first minute. The strong candle then pull back trades are not working for either stock. Also, do not look at P/L even after the trading session. Try some SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs. So I thought when I finished today I did just that, took a trade on a strong candle with a pull back. But after revieweing the video, It was a long wick candle, thus there was definitely shares being bought back. Not a hammer but with some reversing price qualities. So the price dropped almost to the PM low reversed and broke the 206.65 level. Then pulled back and held that level and I went long. Not technically breaking my trading plan. My target was the the PM high and the 200MA-1min as my stop. I got a bad fill, but no surprise this close to the open, but the price went against me immediately. On the way down I decided to flip position if I am stopped out. I wish I remember if I was feeling revenge, but I don’t remember. If I don’t remember it couldn’t have been to strong. Sadly after I flipped the volume finally arrived on BABA but now I am stuck in the AAPL trade and BABA took off without me. My second trade was short on AAPL with the low of PM as my final target, the daily level at 206.93 as my first partial and my stop back at the 200MA-1min. It took two minutes before the price went my way. I took the first partial from nerves and the second at the 205.93 level. I tried to exit at B/E but the price flew through it. I assume I gave probably half my profits back with that slide. What the chart looked like when I took the first trade: Both trades: I took 4 SIM trades including a 5min ORB with BABA. Did OK with that ORB, but BABA already had its run by then. My two losing SIM trades I exited before my stop and my two winning SIM trades were solid but not big winners. Score Card (live trades) AAPL AAPL 85% 91% What I did good today: I re-adjusted my share size on my flip on the AAPL trade since the stop was closer on the flip. I took the correct size and did it fast enough the exit and enter was the same price. What I am grateful from today? My 5/10/15min ORB SIM trades are consistently getting better. What do I need to improve on: I still feel like I didn’t stick to my plan well. Will need to be more specific with the instructions tomorrow.
  9. Mark I read and analyze you journal every day. It was quite easy to see you trading has improved greatly this month. It was like you added more dials to turn to your systems. The red P/L is just the time it takes to learn which knob to turn and how far.
  10. Live trading summary of the month of August. So last month was my first positive P/L month since I have been live. My first 3 months live were quite red. My next 5 months were flat. I define flat P/L as the EOM P/L +/- 3R. Then one positive month and now I just finished my first negative month in 7 months at -5.8R. Both my worse week and second worse week (P/L) occurred this month. With that said, it actually wasn’t a bad month. My score card for the month was 85.9%, slightly higher than last month. My win rate for the month was 46%, which included one week of only 22% winrate. What is also very interesting is there was not even one trade that I took without a good setup. There were definitely bad trades, one to three a week, but not due to a bad setup. I would say all but one of my poorly scored trades were due to the same thing, how I handled a bad entry. Half the time a bad entry is not my fault, it was a bad fill. That is OK, if you manage the bad fill correctly. I never did. The simplest way is just get out of the trade as fast as possible. Another way is to take a heavy partial renormalizing the risk. I don’t do either. I wait to be stopped out for much larger than my 1R. Sometimes the bad entry is my fault. I miss the correct entry and took the trade anyway. I started taking the course (home study version): Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders last month. To place some accountability on myself to finish the course I have been posting my reading notes and assignments online. Please see my link if you are curious about the course. I have finished the first two volumes of the course (there are a total of 5 and they get bigger as you go). When I say finish, I mean reading, taking notes and completed the exercises. https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/1286-van-tharp-institute-peak-performance-course-for-traders-my-journey-through-the-course/ Stats for February/March/April/May/June/July/August: February March April May June July August Total # of live trades 21 34 36 36 38 19 25 Hulk Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Max Loss Days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Broke max trade rule 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Hot Key Mistakes 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 Score card 81% 81% 84.5% 85.8% 85.9% Note all 6 hotkey mistakes, from the last 3 months, were due to incomplete transition from live to SIM. SIM trades have gone well this month. I definitely see an improvement. Aiming to go live with some 5/10/15 min ORBs in September. Goals for September: 1) Don’t go hulk. 2) Learn to control your emotions after a loss. 3) The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month. 4) Keep risk per trade $30. 5) Keep improving health. 6) Keep making SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs 7) Start taking small live 5/10/15 min ORBs when stats say I am ready. Continue with the Van Tharp course for traders. 9) Work on being able to manage a trade with a bad entry. Either exit or take shares off the trade to re-normalize the risk. 10) Allow a third trade if a previous trade was exited well early for a tactical trade management purpose. 11) Adjust score card for harsh penalties for not managing a trade well after a poor exit. 12) Keep P/L window closed for the whole month of September. Only after the last trading session, on the last day of the month I can look at it. I need to focus on score card only.
  11. Live trading summary for week ending 8/30/19. An unusual week. It’s my best week for score card since I have been tracking that with an average of 88.4%. But it was my worse week, for profitability, in 7 months. Which strikes me as very odd. I took 8 live trades this week. One trade was really bad, I was slow entering the trade compounded by a bad fill and as usual I can’t get myself to bail on the trade. Thus I took a -2R. I had only two trades go for a good run. One I was stopped out by 1 cent and missed the run and the other took only 1/3 the appropriate shares. So I only made +2R from winning trades this week. Since I took -5R on the losers it was a bad week, even though my win rate was 50%. I took quite a few SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) and my SIM trades improved throughout the week. I did take some non-AAPL trades, this week, with TSLA. Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open, though still acting more like a scalp with little chance to run. TSLA and MU were marginal last week at the open and will be removed from focus at the open. BABA had a really good week at the open, though this is unusual for BABA. Here is my plan for this week: P/L will be closed and not looked at until the end of the month to help focus on process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Take heavier partial profits, assume it’s a scalp at the open. AMD, TSLA, MU and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data. Keep $30 risk per trade. You can look at BABA for secondary focus at the open. If there is a really good stock in play it can be made the secondary focus. If I trade BABA I will use small share size until I learn the personality of the stock. Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM Don’t add to any trade, even winners. Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.
  12. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders Vol 3: How to Control Losing Attitudes Chapter 1 The writer of the course believes that there are certain characteristics essential for trading success: 1) A strong mathematical ability 2) Gamesmanship 3) The ability to focus on the big picture as opposed to all the detail 4) Making decisions based on logic rather than feelings 5) The ability to be organized and see things through to the end as opposed to the tendency to get totally absorbed in something until something else grabs your attention. 6) The ability to commit to being a trader 7) The ability to totally recognize how you create your own results as a trader. You never trade the markets directly. You trade your beliefs about the markets. If one person can do something, any other person is also capable of doing it, although it will be easier for some. Chapter 2 The course asks you to take an online test to try and determine what type of trader you are. https://www.vantharp.com/trading/free-resources/ The test describes me a Strategic Thinker. The three core qualities of this type: 1) The ability to see the big picture, new possibilities and connections between things 2) Making decisions based on logic and analysis 3) Being decisive, orderly and doing things sequentially The strengths: 1) Originality and follow through 2) Quickly see patterns and ability to rapidly hypothesize Challenges: 1) You may be so logical that you don’t recognize when emotions are causing you to be self-destructive. 2) You have a strong desire to be right. 3) You may not honor your stops Wow the challenges for this type are really dead on. There are a few models for why traders lose in the market. The Hydraulic Model describes traders that are driven to lose in the market because of negative subconscious forces. Freud describes these forces like water against a dam and can break through any weak points and produce irrational behavior. People lose money when their defenses weaken, break down and when they direct the forces inappropriately. The author thinks this model doesn’t work in practice. But I think this is very valid when describing a trader going Tilt/Hulk. Behavior Theory approaches the market in terms of effectiveness of how the trader is rewarded or punished interacting with the market. Superstitions can be created from previous rewards. Frustrations produce rigid behavior. Once you become aware of your behavior one can begin to determine how to control it. That is why adding the psychology to your trading journal. The Trader as a Servo-Mechanism (like a thermostat) who tries to keep him/herself in the comfort zone. The most important Servo-Mechanism as a trade is your self-image. You have a comfort zone with respect to yourself and your behavior tends to act to maintain this comfort zone. Your self-image sets boundaries for you. If you think you are an average trader and you go on a winning streak, your self-image will have you start to lose so you can again become an average trader. If you keep telling yourself you are an excellent trader, you boundaries will start to expand allowing the better trading to occur. Self-Sabotage models: 1) The faulty programming model (matrix model). 2) The unwilling to experience feelings model. 3) The unwilling to experience my creations model (broader). 4) The oneness model of self-sabotage. This is the most advanced and, for most people, the hardest to work from because according to this model most of how we operate is self-sabotage. Recommendations: 1) Find similar traders to you that have already overcome the difficulties you are having now. Learn how they used them as a springboard to success. 2) If you give yourself a label, use that as an opportunity to overcome your challenges rather than as an opportunity to avoid taking responsibility for your trading. 3) Keep a regular journal how you respond to the environment. This will enable you to spot consistent mistakes in your trading and correct them. 4) Divide your goals into parts and reward yourself for the completion of each part. 5) Negative info that you feed yourself results in feelings of unhappiness and failure. Positive info results in the motivation to accomplish your goals.
  13. Same thing with me Mark. It's the worse week for me (live trading profit) in 7 months, but it was my best week for my score card (the rating that I give to each trade) since I have been scoring my trades. Can you imagine how bad it would have been if we traded poorly this week in these market conditions?
  14. Friday 8/30/2019 I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. I took 2 live trades with TSLA and 2 SIM trades. It was actually a good trading day though going through lots of emotions. So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, BIG and DELL on my 5min ORB watchlist. I had a little bit of a short bias on AAPL and no bias on TSLA. Right after the open both stocks looked like they were setting up for shorts and both triggered my entrance criteria. TSLA reached the criteria first, though a few seconds later AAPL did as well so I have to admit my focus was not entirely on my TSLA trade. TSLA created a tombstone and found support, multiple times at the 228.50 level. The plan was to short on the break of that level. It broke that level 3 seconds before the end of the first minute on OK volume. I shorted with my target the 225.85 daily level and my stop all the way back to VWAP, thus I didn’t take that many shares. I also liked the PM low and the 200MA-1min was not far from my entry. Hopefully these levels would pull the price lower. The price instantly reversed when I got filled and never looked back. I hate when that happens. And I got stopped out as planned just above VWAP. Watching my video I see it only broke my entry level by 5 cents that’s not really enough on TSLA to call it a break. When it broke VWAP I was considering TSLA for a long. Then I saw a big L2 Ask signal and quickly went long. The problem was I had to react so quickly I had no time to calculate my share size. Which is surprising since I pride myself on being able to do this very quickly. So I just took the last share size I used, which was for a $1.20 stop. Now I have a 30 cent stop and should have three times the share size. But there was no time for that and for good reason. The instant I got my fill the price flew up fast. My first two partials were small. My third and fourth partial was the same partial. I wanted to take a large 3rd partial but you never know what type of fill you are going to get. So I watched the bid and split my partials into two in case I get a bad fill on one of them. The fills were fine and I was able to take another partial before the price dropped. Sadly because of the small share size I am still slightly red for the day instead of having a very green day. I took two SIM trades DELL and TSLA. Both big winners Score Card (live trades) TSLA TSLA 88% 90% What I did good today: Actually, I traded well today. What I am grateful from today? Finished the month on a good day. What do I need to improve on: The poor share size on my TSLA is unusual. Correct share size is usually the one trade management skill that I usually do well. But I will be more alerted to it.
  15. Thursday 8/29/2019 I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. I took 1 live trade with AAPL and 3 SIM trades. So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and BBY on my 5min ORB watchlist. Though I had a long bias on AAPL the price was sitting on a couple of levels with no strong level any where near the opening price. So reistance/support level type trade would not be available. Which is good since AAPL has been burning me with those setups this week. So I planned only to take an AAPL trade with a hammer. A hammer was formed and I went long. The target was the 209 level which was also the PM high and stop was the 208.57 level. I knew, with slide, that my entry would be less than 2 for the R/R, but I was OK with that. I seem to do better if a tech level is closer. The price went in my favor quickly. I did take a lot of partials but the 1st 3 were small. The 4th partial was the first substantial one. I got two more partials then the small amount of shares I exited when the price broke VWAP. I took three SIM trades. One a winner with BBY short. Then two SIM trades with TSLA. First one I was S/O but the second one was a big winner. Score Card (live trade) AAPL 92% What I did good today: Traded with out P/L. I won’t look at it until EOM. What I am grateful from today? Good trading day, both live and SIM. What do I need to improve on: No more P/L. Just focus on the score card.
  16. Wednesday 8/28/2019 I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning (< 4 hours of sleep). So I took half share size today. I took 2 live trades with AAPL and 2 SIM trades. So AAPL and ROKU were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and TIF on my 5min ORB watchlist. I had no bias on AAPL today, it was opening at PDC. The price open and popped on volume quickly to 204.80. I waited for a pull back. I entered the trade at 204.40 and expected a 10-20 slide but got a 40 cent slide. My target was 205.10 and PDC was my stop. The R/R was totally down the drain and thus I need to get out of the trade. As usual I don’t have the mental muscle to do so. I watched my video and I had at least 10 seconds to get out of the trade at a 10c loss and never did. I held onto the trade for almost 5 minutes since the price kept finding resistance at the PDC and 200MA-1min. At 9:35 I decided if it broke down through the PDC I would flip my position. It did and I did. My target was the 205.55 level with VWAP as my stop. I took the first two partial correctly at tech levels. I almost got stopped out after the first partial, but learned my lesson yesterday to give it a little more room. I only had a few shares left when it squeezed up and I exited when it broke the 203.73 level. Since the first trade stop was now double planned and I took both trades half shares I assume I am in the red today even though the second trade was an OK winner. I am no longer looking at my P/L until the end of the month so I don’t know exactly. I took two SIM trades. One a winner with AAPL on the long side and a small loss with TSLA. TSLA was an ABCD pattern, but after a few minutes the Time/Sales litterally stopped. I exited immediately. Score Card (live trades) AAPL AAPL 73% 93% What I did good today: I like my second trade and my SIM trades. I still haven’t looked at my P/L. What I am grateful from today? Taking half share sizes. What do I need to improve on: Will evoke the 3 trade allowed rule if exited early from a trade due to poor entry or early stop due to technical. The exit must be an early one. Will deduct 5 points (on my score card) for a trade that I don’t exit due to bad fill. I will add 5 pts if I exit early due to bad fill. I must start to learn how to exit early on trades.
  17. I like both trades Mark. I saw the AMD trade and would have taken it if I wasn't in another trade at the time. AMD has this funny "settling" period in its personality now. 5/10/30 minutes, tough to predict when. And volume stays high so it could pop in either direction. I don't know how to trade it recently. Maybe a low volume pullback on the trend trade? But you are more of an expert on that than me.
  18. Van Tharp Institute Peak Performance Course for Traders Vol 2: How to control stress Chapter 8 This statement (if one can say it’s true) is a good predictor of trading success: Each week I spend 4 hours exercising. Fit people are more successful on average since they have more protection against the stress of trading. And they are less likely to be disturbed by a loss and have higher tolerance for long periods of mental stress. 1) Exercise is a way of burning off the stress-related byproducts and minimizes the need for a fight/flight response. 2) Exercise releases endorphins 3) Exercise increases one’s resistance to disease 4) Helps you relax 5) Serves as a form of mental release and helps improve a person’s self-image. Aerobic exercise raises the rate at which your body will convert glycogen to glucose. The air contains 21% oxygen. An average person exhales air that contains 19% oxygen. A fit person exhales 17% oxygen, indicating the increased efficiency of the lungs. A fit person may have up to 60% more red blood cells than an unfit person. The rest of the chapter was describing methodology of exercising. I am reasonably comfortable on that subject so I am not recording any notes. I will reiterate my exercise goal. I will By October 15 achieve a VO2 Max of 48. This was my fitness level only 10 weeks ago. I am currently at 44. My VO2 MAX was 51 last September, though I do not have a time line to reach that yet, though I am thinking of next May as goal to re-achieve that fitness level. Chapter 9 The previous two chapters discussed two ways for effective stress protection. Some other ways are: recreation, mental relaxation and learning to perform automatically under high stress conditions through mental rehearsal. The course recommends spending 2 hours a day or one whole day a week on recreation. That amount of time is almost mind boggling for me. I always feel like I have something I need to do. This week I have tried to relax more. Last night I spent 20 minutes reading to my kids. And next month my schedule changes and I get Sundays off. I will try to make that day a family day and not fixing things around the house day. The course recommends traders taking 2 weeks off for vacation every six months. This will also be a tough one for me. Besides not having the available time, vacations are quite stressful for me. I am essentially the tour director for our family vacations. And my family does not like to lounge around. They want to be on the go all the time. After a vacation is over I always say the same thing, “thank goodness I am back at work so I can rest.” Relaxation is a form of self-control and is a skill you need to practice (course includes a relaxation CD). They recommend listening to the CD twice a day. I have not listened to it yet. They don’t recommend listening to it while driving (may cause drowsiness) so I need to work it into my day. They recommend using it for 2-4 weeks until the technique is memorized. Practice successful behaviors so often that they become natural and can be performed even under stress when you feel mentally out of control. Self-sabotage “You get exactly what you want out of life.” You are stressed because, at some level, you want to be stressed. The question is asked, “if you owned a million dollar race horse, would you give it coffee to wake up in the morning? Not give it enough sleep? Give it poorly balanced meals? Not exercise it enough?” Of course not. So why do we do that to our billion dollar bodies? Chapter 10 Each person experiences life differently because each person’s thinking is unique. We have our own automatic way of talking to ourselves. Psychologists call this self-talk. Self-talk can be supportive, but it can also be venomous and self-deprecating (like worry). Self-talk can be illogical like, “why me?” But, it still has a large impact. If you are a worrier, it is due to your self-talk. Worriers anticipate the worst in any situation. First you must understand your stress. Where does it originate? What do you rationalize? How does it affect you? So they recommend keeping a stress diary. Then rate your self using a scale called a Subjective Units of Distress Scale (SUDS). Zero is at peace and worse case stress is a 7. Keep the diary and stress scale for 2 weeks (at least). You probably spend many hours charting the markets, why not your stress? They ask you to plot the SUDS versus results of your trading for results for 6 months. Coincidentally I was doing this but with a simple -1, 0, +1 scale (see my weekly summary posted 8/25/19 in the trading journal forums). When I tried to correlate it to trading results I saw little correlation. But now they ask you to give yourself a SUDS rating at the moment of the trading decision. Then after 30 trades look for patterns. Is the opening of a trade more stressful than closing one? Are you less stressed on successful trades? Was the stress from trading or something outside of trading? So they recommend 3 exercises: 1) Reliving a past emotional experience related to trading a. What was the situation? b. What were your thoughts? c. When you feel emotional from the memory, what self-talk do you hear? d. Did your emotion fit the experience? e. Can you interpret the situation in a positive light? 2) Keeping a stress dairy 3) Charting stress So I will start a stress diary for each trade. I don’t think I will post it, though I will post the final chart of stress versus trade outcome. But I will try the first exercise now: reliving a stressful trade. This was a recent trade (last week). My first live trade of the day went well and was a small win. Though it didn’t make much it had a good score card. So I was switching to SIM and then I thought, “I am negative for the month I need to trade more.” I really didn’t want to but I forced myself to trade more. I wasn’t thinking about only the process anymore. I did find a B setup. Which means I will probably get a poor score card. When I was just about to take the trade I balked to double check the Y-scale which looked odd. I determined my stop and share size was find but the price had moved beyond an acceptable entry point by then. So I should have stopped the entry but momentum took control and I entered the trade. I realized it was a terrible trade the moment I took it and thus I am supposed to get out. I usually find this difficult and to make things worse the price went against me the moment I took the trade. But, I thought the price already fell and is close to the S/O I might as well test it and was stopped out. Self-talk: 1) Keep trading, you are behind this month. 2) There is an “OK” setup you need to take it. You were positive last month (for the first time) you need to keep that. 3) Am I choosing the right number of shares? I am not use to this stock, did I read the Y-scale correctly? I have read that wrong before. 4) I just took a horrible trade I should get out. But then I ruin the day and I will be wrong. 5) Had to stop out, made a good day bad. It will be a bad score card. 6) This will be embarrassing to post this trade on the forum. 7) Does this trade show how poor of a trader I am and the few winning trades I have had are really to a fluke that stocks like AAPL and FB are temporarily easy to scalp at the open. This setup may disappear at any moment. 8] It’s easier to scalp then to make real trade setups which I have not been able to do yet. 9) And as usual I think is this the trade that starts the avalanche of bad trades to my inevitable road to quitting? I waited a day to be distant from the memory so I can write on interpreting the situation in a positive light. The trade described above and some others made me to finally decide to remove my P/L window permanently from my platform. I will look at my balance at the end of the month, that’s all. It’s all about trading your setups and getting a solid score card. Trades like above is the push I need to go in the right direction. Intellectually I can’t imagine that trading 6 months in a row, without losing money is luck. There must be some skill accumulated by now. That is just silly to think I am on a lucky streak or a funny anomaly in the market. Yes, the lack of profitability definitely impacts me and will cause my confidence to wither. But let’s be real about this.
  19. Tuesday 8/27/2019 I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning. Had some big emotional swings this session. I took 2 live trades with AAPL and 3 SIM trades. So AAPL and ROKU were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD and PLAN on my 5min ORB watchlist. I had no bias on AAPL today but it was trading in a position at the open where there were levels 60c above and below it. Above the resistant level there was nothing but white space on the chart. Ten seconds after the open the priced popped on large volume and broke the 208.43 level. Then it hung around that level for 10 seconds so I took it long. There was no target in sight so I chose the 210 level with my stop the 207.95 PM level. The instant I entered the trade it reversed and did not look back and I quickly got stopped out. Everytime the a trade like this happens it creates an emotional hit. I hate when they instantly go against you. You feel if you waited just one second more I would have not gotten into this trade. As it dropped I could see that this would be a nice short with a shooting star forming and flipped my position when it broke the 207.95 level. There was a bit of a slide. My target was the 207.18 level with my stop at 208. A minute later I did get a small partial. Then I waited and noticed the 20MA-1min was being respected which is unusual so soon after the open. Three minutes later there was a white candle that respected the VWAP-1min so I pulled my stop to VWAP. The next candle broke VWAP and I stopped out. Again more emotional hits as the instint I stopped out the price reversed and never looked back and became a really good short. If I gave it 1c more…. I had to step away from screen for a few minutes actually. I did come back and made three SIM trades (1 for 3). Then I left the screen again and didn’t want to journal for awhile. I was pretty salty this morning as I went through my morning. Then I came back to the screen to write my journal entry and saw it wasn’t that bad. There were solid score cards and lots of learning. Even my SIM trades were fine. All I remember is I took 3 trades and stopped out on 2 of them. When I came back and looked and sure I was 33% win rate on my SIM trades but then I noticed I was quite profitable on my SIM trades today. And my S/Os were well managed. So actually I traded well. A few big learnings. I have been burned a few times recently about trading the open when the R/R is too big. It seems when you are close to the open you need a strong level close to your entry to pull the price to it. I will no longer take a trade without a level within 1R trading off a column candle. A hammer/shooting star may still be reasonable to take the trade. But these solid candle trades into the leveless open space don’t work near the open. The second learning is it is time to loosen up on the stop outs. Stopping out is still very hard for me. To adapt I become very robotic at the time of stop out. I focus on the point of the stop out and I trigger the exit when it is reached. I turn off my intellect. I am so worried about not having the strength to stop out that I have been stopping out too early. Today was a good example. There was VWAP, a PM level and the 208 level within pennies of each other. So why choose VWAP, the first level the price will reach, to stop out? These three levels make a fuzzy band level. Choosing the first one is not wise at all. I will work to change that from now on. I have been proud of myself that I don’t look at my P/L until the trading session is over. It was a difficult thing to accomplish. I have done that for months now. But I still focus on the P/L daily and is a concern all month. But my focus should be my score card. So starting tomorrow, the P/L window will be closed. I will only look at it at the end of each month. Score Card (live trades) AAPL FL 88% 91% What I did good today: I like my score card today. What I am grateful from today? Lots of learning today. What do I need to improve on: Focus on the score card. P/L window will be closed until the end of each month.
  20. Monday 8/26/2019 I had a well-being score of 8/10 this morning. I knew I only had time for one trade this morning, since it was my daughters first day of school. I took 1 live trade with AAPL. So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, TGT and BMY on my 5min ORB watchlist. I was long biased on AAPL and liked that it gave back some of its gains just before the open. I had no bias on TSLA. I really liked that AAPL fell right at the open and was waiting for the hammer to form. The price bounced off of a 205.50 level that the PM was respecting. Then there were 5 tech levels (205.93 daily, VWAP, $206, 50MA-1min, and 200MA-1min) all within 20 cents of each other. I waited for the break of all of them (loved the volume) and went long. My order was not filled. The price moved so fast it went passed the market limit order. Only the second time this has happen since I went live. I didn’t get too nervous because AAPL usually does a pull back when it flies through a strong level. It will come back to test it. And the missed market order left a limit order in a perfect spot. So I waited and my order was filled a few seconds later. My target was the 206.80 PM level and my stop was the 205.93 daily level. The R/R~3 was nice but I was nervous the stop was too close for a trade taken 17 seconds after the open. But, the next stop level was the 205.50 which was too far. So I used the 205.93 as my stop and took half shares, since there will be a lot of slippage. The upward movement stalled for awhile so I took a small partial at +20c thinking the trade will reverse. Then the price dropped below my entry but there was such a strong level just below my entry I held on. It touched that level twice and found support. Then it headed higher. Then I took another small partial on my planned 1st target (a minor PM level). The price found resistance there and took some time to break through. After that my faith in the trade was reducing and I started taking partials a bit too fast though I took small ones. It did reach my target and I had 25% of my shares left which is good for me. I got another partial at 207 and held on to a few shares and exited when the price broke down through the 206.46 PM level again. Score Card (live trades) AAPL 92% What I did good today: I like my score card today. What I am grateful from today? It was nice having a winner when I knew I had time for only one trade today. It was nice to see my daughter happy at her first day of school, when most kids dread it. What do I need to improve on: I had fun with this trade, so I am going to leave this blank today.
  21. Live trading summary for week ending 8/23/19. I improved my score card, this week, with an average of 87%. I took 8 live trades this week. Two trades were quite bad. Both trades I made the same mistake. I had a poor fill or entry and needed to get out of the trade immediately. I didn’t and would get stopped out for at least the full R. My win% was a good 63% but I was flat for the week again. Both of my sizeable winners were both at half share size so they couldn’t out weigh the losers. I took quite a few SIM trades (5/10/15min ORBs) though my win rate was OK I was at net loss for the SIM trades. I did take some non-AAPL trades (TSLA and FL) so that was a highlight. I tallied the last 6 months (26 weeks) of scores I have been giving myself on my level of nerves before the start of each trading day. I summed up the total for each week and plotted it. A negative comment would be assigned a -1, neutral comment a zero and a positive comment a +1. It looks like my nerves have been under control for the last few weeks. I will leave that comment out of my daily journal unless it is enough to affect my trading. Back test data shows AAPL still in play at the open, though acting more like a scalp with little chance to run. TSLA is still OK at the open. MU is back in play but mostly at the 2 or 3 min mark. Here is my plan for this week: Concentrate on the process and score card, not on W% and P/L AAPL is still in play at the open. Make it the primary focus. Take heavier partial profits, assume it’s a scalp at the open. AMD and FB are marginal. Do not trade at the open until better data. Keep $30 risk per trade. If you can find a stock on the gappers list that you like then make it your secondary focus. If not choose TSLA. Use small share size with TSLA until you better understand its personality Keep an eye on MU for 2/3min ORBs Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM Don’t add to any trade, even winners. Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.
  22. You had some really nice trades yesterday. I think the over trading is just a side reaction from your trading success. I am sure it will be temporary and you will find a way to cap it. I have one adequate setup. Successful traders tend to have about 3 good setups. I think you may have 6+. I see you trade ORBs, trends, reversals, wedges, 3 candles, etc.... and all of them successfully! That means you see setups everywhere, all day. Where most of us are lucky to find one. This is likely a new experience for you and you will adapt quickly. I heard Andrew in the chat just say he doesn't know why either, the longer you trade the greater chance of giving your money back to the market. Again this is temporary for you. I have no worries about you and would not be surprised at all that you asked to become a BBT moderator in 2020. Have a good weekend.
  23. A solid week Mark! Especially, the discipline you showed to be selective with the number of trades you took.
  24. Friday 8/23/2019 I had a well-being score of 7.5/10 this morning. My nerves were OK. Traded half share size today since it is Friday. I took 2 live trades with AAPL and FL and 4 SIM trades. So AAPL and TSLA were on my market open watchlist with MU, AMD, CRM and FL on my 5min ORB watchlist. Both AAPL and TSLA felt the tariff crunch and was trading with the market during PM. I had no bias for TSLA, but AAPL has been having these small pops at the open. It opened with the usual hammer with good volume and I went long when it was about to engulf the PM last candle. My target was the 210.83 daily level, which was $1.20 away, which is perfect. My stop was the 50MA-1min which there was PM respect. The price did pop, but only 60 cents. I got two partials than the price dropped and I exited at B/E with some slippage for a small win. Though I am not familiar with FL it was setting up for a 3min ORB like the ones MU use to have setups for. I went long on the break of the 3min candle and 200MA-1min. My target was the $38 and 200MA-1min my stop. I took a partial at the HOPM which was also the HOTD. Then a heavy partial when it moved 20 cents further. The stock did move 1% on the trade which is good. I then took 4 SIM trades. Two losers and two winners. All 4 were +/-1R gainer/losers, so I broke even. I didn’t let my winners run. Score Card (live trades) AAPL FL 92% 91% What I did good today: I like my score cards today. What I am grateful from today? Trading a new stock ticker. What do I need to improve on: Need to perform my periodic evaluation of my partialing. It’s been too long and there is way more scalping now.
  25. Great trades today!! All the way to the end of the day.
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