Chapter 7 W: “Thinking in probabilities can be difficult to master, because our minds don’t naturally process information in this manner. Quite the contrary, our minds cause us to perceive what we know, and what we know is part of our past, whereas, in the market, every moment is new and unique, even though there may be similarities to something that occurred in the past”. A: Each trade is unique and different. It has nothing to do with previous trades; and even if they have similar patterns, they are not correlated to any other trade we have taken in the past. We should look at the market with open mind and each trade as a new experience. We should avoid trying to predict the outcomes based on false assumptions (perceptions) or unrelated past experiences.

Chapter 7 - The Traders Edge : Thinking in Probabilities W - Being aware of uncertainty and understanding the nature of probabilities does not equate with an ability to actually function effectively from a probabilistic perspective. A - Mark is telling us we have to move deeper than knowing about thinking in probabilities. It must become a solid belief for us. If it is a belief (like Mark discussed in the last chapter); our actions will come from that belief effortlessly. A - We need the proper beliefs to get to the highest level as traders. Here is where I find myself... knowing all the information at a decent level and even starting to believe some of it.... I have to drill in and form these solid beliefs now to level up my trading psych game. I looked ahead and the next few chapters are going to drill into beliefs. He definitely knows his stuff & I 1000% agree that trading and everything we want has to start with the proper beliefs. The solid foundation....Beliefs turn into thoughts turn into words turn into actions turn into your life. 5 Fundamental Truths: (Beliefs we need to install deep into our brains so all decisions/trading stems from them) 1. Anything Can Happen 2. You dont need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money 3. There is a random distribution between wins & losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique.