Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

1 hour ago, Tommy said:

Hi Rob,

may i ask, how do you give yourself a well being score? is this subjective or you have some measuring method?
it sounds interesting.

Tommy

Sure. It's mostly measured.

This is an example of my well being calculation from a previous morning (during winter). 

My Garmin (watch) informs me of the first 6 categories on the table. Fatigue level is self determined. I did have a headache that morning but that is unusual. I won't see a good score >7 until late Spring. My well-being score will be higher in the summer with the warmer weather and more opportunity to workout.



•  

[Tommy 55]

50 minutes ago, Rob C said:

Sure. It's mostly measured.

This is an example of my well being calculation from a previous morning (during winter). 

My Garmin (watch) informs me of the first 6 categories on the table. Fatigue level is self determined. I did have a headache that morning but that is unusual. I won't see a good score >7 until late Spring. My well-being score will be higher in the summer with the warmer weather and more opportunity to workout.



•  

ok thanx for info, a resting pulse of 54 sounds just right though, not sure why that would be a -0,5

[Rob C 826]

19 hours ago, Tommy said:

ok thanx for info, a resting pulse of 54 sounds just right though, not sure why that would be a -0,5

Actually, I record the resting pulse number the moment I wake up. So the previous 4 hours I have been sleeping, so it will be low. This is the scoring tier for 4 hours resting pulse:

>58   -1

54-58   -0.5

49-53    0

<49  +0.5

I have data from my Garmin for almost 2 years before I started day trading so I know my stats well. 54 is just beyond one sigma from average so it is -0.5 in my calculation.

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 5/15/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were OK before the opening bell. Not so good during the trade.

I took one live trade with AAPL.  

Premarket looked great for AAPL. I planned a few scenarios in my head, depending on what AAPL (and AMD) would do after the open. The price dropped at the open and bounce off of the $186 level and went all the way up to the 50MA, where it did a “curtsey”. Which is what I call when the price touches and retraces from a level, thus confirming the traders are respecting that tech level at the moment. So I knew that would be my entry point, if the price broke it. By the 2^nd one minute candle that level also coincided with VWAP. The issue was there was no good stop out level. The 9MA and 20MA merged at the $185.50 level. I was hoping the 3 combined made a strong enough level to call my S/O. So I went long at the break if the 50MA/VWAP and my heart was pounding. The trade was not in the first minute, but I think the weak S/O level caused the stress.

What AAPL looked like when I took the trade:

1min Chart                                         5min Chart

         

I took a quick first partial since there was a level not far from my entry at $187. Then the price retraced. So I have a rule with AAPL only, that I do not S/O at B/E after the first partial if there is a strong tech level just beyond it. So my S/O was moved up to the 50MA not B/E. The price dropped to 1c of my S/O. My heart was pounding to a point I was started to get concerned physically. Essentially, what was happening, as Brett Steenbarger states, I went from stress to duress. I did survive the pull back. The price did move back up, but when it didn’t make another new 1min high I took another partial, which calmed me down, but not enough to take partials correctly. The next level was at $187.50 but I took two partials on the way. Then I had so few shares left I exited the trade on the first new 1min low.

I heard later, on Andrews recap, that Norm called this trade out in the chat. I was g;ad to hear that. Hopefully he makes a recap.  It makes me have hope I am taking intelligent trades. But I am sure he got a better entry, he always does.

65 cents on AAPL is not big enough to call it one and done, but I had to head out early today, so I didn’t have time for a second trade.

My score card for today:

    Most of the points were removed for the overzealous partial taking.

 

What I did good today:  Created multiple scenarios/plans from premarket and followed through with the appropriate plan.

How did I challenge myself today?  Held through a retrace to 1c of stop out and beyond my B/E.

What I did bad today:  Way too many partials.

What can I do better tomorrow: The abundant partials are caused by my extreme nerves during the trade. I need to resolve the nerves to resolve the overzealous partial taking.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 5/16/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were OK.

I took two live trades with AAPL.  Double stop out day. Recently, I have had a win-rate of <50%. So statistically I will have at least one day a week that I will stop out on both of my allowable trades. Today was that day.

Premarket looked great for AAPL again. So again I planned a few scenarios in my head, depending on what AAPL would do after the open. The only concern is that if AAPL dropped and bounced off of the 189.30 level (which is what happen) the price has to move $1.80 to clear all the levels before I would take an entry. That is a long way, so I was doubtful at the premarket this scenario would play out. So AAPL sold off and bounced off of the 189.30 daily level. Price was rising, but it had to break through 6 strong tech levels before the R/R became ~2. The final level was the 200MA-5min. When it broke that level, with a great looking hammer, I went long. Price instantly reversed. It is true that the price only broke the last level by about 2 cents, so I might have entered before I confirmed a clean break. Then the price went and tested my S/O level 5 times. Usually when the S/O holds up that many times the stock heads finally in the right direction. Not this time, where the 6^th time it tested my S/O it broke threw by a couple of cents. I stopped out and the stock instantly reversed and climbed 50 cents.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                                5min

                                       

I took my eye off of AAPL for a few seconds to look at my other charts and saw the SPY was REALLY strong. I turned back to look at AAPL again and saw it had the same setup again. I went long when it broke VWAP. I know I didn’t wait for the 200MA break, but I was long biased when I saw SPY just getting a lot stronger. I held on to the trade for a few minutes, while I was watching SPY heading higher and higher. Finally, it reached my stop out again where I ended the trade and the day.

   

My score card for today:

        Not the best trades with my early entries, but not terrible either.

 

What I did good today:  Never thought to break my 2 trade rule, even though the thought of revenge trading was high.

How did I challenge myself today?  Held through 5 price retraces to the brink of my S/O.

What I did bad today:  Entered early on both trades, though it was not to dramatic.

What can I do better tomorrow: Need to watch my AAPL trade videos to see how the stock treats the 200MA-5min. Need to determine how much room I need to give on a break. And of course be patient and wait for the clean break.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 5/17/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were very good, eager to trade.

Normally I dread Friday trading, the day I give all my profits back. But after last Friday, which was an average Friday for me so it was bad. I decided until further notice, I will take half shares on Friday. It really kills my weekend trading so poorly on Friday, I was hoping the half shares would remove some of the sting. Then last night I thought I should take advantage of that? If I am forced to trade half share size it’s a good day to step out of my comfort zone. So the plan for today was half share size and no AAPL or AMD trades allowed today. Actually, I didn’t put them watch-list or give them a chart. Instead my two Montages I had NVDA and BABA. From my back testing NVDA isn’t in play that often. But when it is, it trades at the open well. My back testing says the opposite for BABA for my setups, at the open, BABA is completely unforgiving at the open if you take a B+ setup. Though A+ setups do work great on BABA at the open. But if it is just a “good” setup, the win% is low. So I have an instinct not to watch BABA at the open. Then I thought actually that’s perfect, I shouldn’t be taken the B+ setups anyway. So BABA was on my second Montage. This actually got my mood in good spirits. I was looking forward to the opening bell.

I took one live trade today on NVDA.

Just as I normally do, I contemplate some scenarios in my head (if then stuff). Though I did not know if that works on NVDA and BABA. I don’t know them that well. So NVDA sold off and bounced off of the $157 mark. When it reached VWAP it had a really nice hammer and good volume. I went long when it broke VWAP. Though it broke it by 10c it immediately reversed on me. I should have waited for the break of the $159 level as well ( a few pennies higher), but my R/R was 1.9 so I was probably pushing the entry a bit. The price retraced and tested my S/O level (158.12). It bounced and moved back to VWAP helping prove that I picked the correct S/O level. The price rose and reached my first target (159.39) but I got a horrible fill almost at B/E. My second and third partials were fine, then another bad fill on my fourth partial. At that point I really wanted to wait and see if NVDA ran more since it was a red to green, but at half shares I had very few shares left. So I got out at the top of the candle.

Even though I was trading half share size, getting $2.50 from NVDA is a one and done day. Plus, I REALLY wanted a positive Friday for a change. So I was not going to trade any more.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                                   5min

                    

   

My score card for today:

    Nice setup and well chosen S/O level, but entered the trade too early. Too many partials as well.

 

What I did good today:  Created a good plan for today.

How did I challenge myself today?  I stepped out of my comfort zone and didn’t trade AAPL or AMD.

What I did bad today:  Still early on the entries.

What can I do better tomorrow: Don’t press the entry. If you like the trade but R/R is a little below 2, still take the correct entry. A bad entry is worse than a slightly low R/R.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Rob C

[Mark D. 435]

On 5/16/2019 at 6:33 PM, Rob C said:

What I did good today:  Never thought to break my 2 trade rule, even though the thought of revenge trading was high.

Good job not revenge trading

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 5/17/19.

It actually was a good week of trading. I had the highest score card average since I have been tracking it (7 weeks) of 89% (last week was 74% and last month average was 81%). Not happy that I was red this week. I had a win% of 50% which means I should be positive for the week. But, I shouldn’t be too disappointed. My two trades this week that really ran I took half shares (one trade was 20 sec from the open and the other was on a Friday which I am starting to take half share size). But, all four of my stop outs, this week, were for a full -R, so I was -0.6R for the week.

It is a busy weekend so I don’t have much time to back test, so I just looked at the  main players. AAPL should be pulled from the top two focus spots for the 2min ORB. AAPL had an amazing run. It gave us 8 great weeks of ORBs. Generally gave us 2 or 3 a week and a false setup was unusual. Then 3 weeks ago it gave us a marginal week. But two weeks ago it gave us an OK week (but not great). Then last week it gave us as many false setups. So until better data appears, AAPL will be downgraded off of the Montage to a minor chart on a small side screen.

AMD looks still in play. Though the number of setups has reduced from a month ago, AMD is at most only giving a false setup once a week. FB had a really good week last week and showed two weeks in a row of good setups. FB has a very different personality that it tends to ORB from the 1min candle not the 2min, so there will be some learning curve trading it. Plus, you must trade FB really close to the open which I don’t really like, but I need to adapt to  that.

MU is showing marginal data so I will keep it on one of the side charts.

Here is my plan for next week:

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 5/20/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves would have been good, but when I saw I may trade AAPL today my mood went sour.

Before I start complaining too much, let me say I had a good trading session. I took 2 live trades with AAPL.

The plan, based on back-testing, was not to trade AAPL and have FB as my primary focus. But at 1M shares and almost -3% in premarket I couldn’t ignore AAPL. And yes you see the punchline coming. I got stopped out on AAPL and FB was a nice 1min ORBU.

AAPL created a really nice hammer with very high volume. I was concerned since the R/R~1.5 with 200MA-1min as the target, but it had two strong daily levels above it with R/R>2 so I went long when it broke VWAP. It did move a few pennies before reversing and stopping me out at my planned stop 183.50 (daily level and 50MA)

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                       5min

                      

My stop out:

I started looking for other trades and saw FB’s nice 1min ORBU, but I would be chasing it so I didn’t take it. Oddly AAPL was setting up again, though I really didn’t want to get burned again on AAPL. But it was making a nice mini ABCD on good volume and had a really good R/R (182.98 as a S/O and 180.78 as the target). I shorted when it broke the LOTD. My partialling (my spell check says that’s not a word)  was horrible. I do notice I partial worse after a S/O, but this was really bad. My aim for my first partial was 181.50, that was my third partial!! My first was at 182 and I got a bad fill essentially covering at B/E. When I only had enough shares left for one last cover I told myself I must wait for my actual planned target or original B/E. Luckily I didn’t have to wait too long and took my last cover on my 180.78 target. Anyway I got my $1+ move from AAPL, so it still all good.

                   

My score card for today:

Same score on both trades but for difference reasons. My first trade the setup was just OK, but was executed well. The second trade had a great setup but not executed well.

 

What I did good today:  I had a win% of 50% but still profitable for the day!

How did I challenge myself today?  I took a short after 2min from the open, which is unusual for me.

What I did bad today:  Between the substandard R/R and the plan not to trade AAPL I shouldn’t have taken that first trade.

What can I do better tomorrow: AAPL is too much in my comfort zone, I need to break out more, at least for the 2min ORB.

 

 

 

 

[Mark D. 435]

7 hours ago, Rob C said:

I got stopped out on AAPL and FB was a nice 1min ORBU.

i can really relate to that! 

great trading! 

[Patmartel27 37]

9 hours ago, Rob C said:

Monday 5/20/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves would have been good, but when I saw I may trade AAPL today my mood went sour.

Before I start complaining too much, let me say I had a good trading session. I took 2 live trades with AAPL.

The plan, based on back-testing, was not to trade AAPL and have FB as my primary focus. But at 1M shares and almost -3% in premarket I couldn’t ignore AAPL. And yes you see the punchline coming. I got stopped out on AAPL and FB was a nice 1min ORBU.

AAPL created a really nice hammer with very high volume. I was concerned since the R/R~1.5 with 200MA-1min as the target, but it had two strong daily levels above it with R/R>2 so I went long when it broke VWAP. It did move a few pennies before reversing and stopping me out at my planned stop 183.50 (daily level and 50MA)

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                       5min

                      

My stop out:

I started looking for other trades and saw FB’s nice 1min ORBU, but I would be chasing it so I didn’t take it. Oddly AAPL was setting up again, though I really didn’t want to get burned again on AAPL. But it was making a nice mini ABCD on good volume and had a really good R/R (182.98 as a S/O and 180.78 as the target). I shorted when it broke the LOTD. My partialling (my spell check says that’s not a word)  was horrible. I do notice I partial worse after a S/O, but this was really bad. My aim for my first partial was 181.50, that was my third partial!! My first was at 182 and I got a bad fill essentially covering at B/E. When I only had enough shares left for one last cover I told myself I must wait for my actual planned target or original B/E. Luckily I didn’t have to wait too long and took my last cover on my 180.78 target. Anyway I got my $1+ move from AAPL, so it still all good.

                   

My score card for today:

Same score on both trades but for difference reasons. My first trade the setup was just OK, but was executed well. The second trade had a great setup but not executed well.

 

What I did good today:  I had a win% of 50% but still profitable for the day!

How did I challenge myself today?  I took a short after 2min from the open, which is unusual for me.

What I did bad today:  Between the substandard R/R and the plan not to trade AAPL I shouldn’t have taken that first trade.

What can I do better tomorrow: AAPL is too much in my comfort zone, I need to break out more, at least for the 2min ORB.

 

 

 

 

In this moment I read The playbook from Mike Bellafiore and something I found really interesting is the focus he puts on let the winner run until you have a reason to exit (profit target reached, trend have change, something in the tape, etc.)

I partial a lot too and when I see my results often my losers are bigger than my winners because only a part of my position reach my profit target when I'm in a winner but when I lose it's all my position.

You seems pretty good to cutting your losers, maybe letting you winner run could help you.

I feel pretty weird trying to give some advices, but I really appreciate what you do for me so I try to give you back.

 

[Tommy 55]

11 hours ago, Rob C said:

Monday 5/20/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves would have been good, but when I saw I may trade AAPL today my mood went sour.

Before I start complaining too much, let me say I had a good trading session. I took 2 live trades with AAPL.

The plan, based on back-testing, was not to trade AAPL and have FB as my primary focus. But at 1M shares and almost -3% in premarket I couldn’t ignore AAPL. And yes you see the punchline coming. I got stopped out on AAPL and FB was a nice 1min ORBU.

AAPL created a really nice hammer with very high volume. I was concerned since the R/R~1.5 with 200MA-1min as the target, but it had two strong daily levels above it with R/R>2 so I went long when it broke VWAP. It did move a few pennies before reversing and stopping me out at my planned stop 183.50 (daily level and 50MA)

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                       5min

                      

My stop out:

I started looking for other trades and saw FB’s nice 1min ORBU, but I would be chasing it so I didn’t take it. Oddly AAPL was setting up again, though I really didn’t want to get burned again on AAPL. But it was making a nice mini ABCD on good volume and had a really good R/R (182.98 as a S/O and 180.78 as the target). I shorted when it broke the LOTD. My partialling (my spell check says that’s not a word)  was horrible. I do notice I partial worse after a S/O, but this was really bad. My aim for my first partial was 181.50, that was my third partial!! My first was at 182 and I got a bad fill essentially covering at B/E. When I only had enough shares left for one last cover I told myself I must wait for my actual planned target or original B/E. Luckily I didn’t have to wait too long and took my last cover on my 180.78 target. Anyway I got my $1+ move from AAPL, so it still all good.

                   

My score card for today:

Same score on both trades but for difference reasons. My first trade the setup was just OK, but was executed well. The second trade had a great setup but not executed well.

 

What I did good today:  I had a win% of 50% but still profitable for the day!

How did I challenge myself today?  I took a short after 2min from the open, which is unusual for me.

What I did bad today:  Between the substandard R/R and the plan not to trade AAPL I shouldn’t have taken that first trade.

What can I do better tomorrow: AAPL is too much in my comfort zone, I need to break out more, at least for the 2min ORB.

 

 

 

 

i dont think there is anything wrong with trading what is in your comfortzone though. so no reason not to trade aapl i believe.
though i find it curious that you and also Mike B and some others do not take more trades. 
this i mean in a good way though. what do you do after your last trade ? do you keep on watching still?

[Rob C 826]

4 hours ago, Patmartel27 said:

In this moment I read The playbook from Mike Bellafiore and something I found really interesting is the focus he puts on let the winner run until you have a reason to exit (profit target reached, trend have change, something in the tape, etc.)

I partial a lot too and when I see my results often my losers are bigger than my winners because only a part of my position reach my profit target when I'm in a winner but when I lose it's all my position.

You seems pretty good to cutting your losers, maybe letting you winner run could help you.

I feel pretty weird trying to give some advices, but I really appreciate what you do for me so I try to give you back.

 

Funny I am reading "The Playbook" right now as well. But I like how Brett S. says it, when someone doesn't trust their trades enough they partial out to quickly. You add the lack of trust with nerves and that pretty much explains me.

[Rob C 826]

1 hour ago, Tommy said:

i dont think there is anything wrong with trading what is in your comfortzone though. so no reason not to trade aapl i believe.
though i find it curious that you and also Mike B and some others do not take more trades. 
this i mean in a good way though. what do you do after your last trade ? do you keep on watching still?

Yes, after my last trade I still stay and watch the charts and the chatroom until a little after 10am. But sometimes the FOMO gets high and I have to turn off my platform early. When I first started taking 1 trade/day max, I had to turn off the platform immediately after the trade.

My back-test data is saying AAPL may be falling out of favor for the 2min ORB. So I am just shying away from trading AAPL at the open. 5min ORB and later is still fine.

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 5/21/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves a little bit negative, already feeling the AAPL FOMO since the plan was not to trade AAPL at the open until more favorable data is collected. But seeing Andrew’s T-shirt got me in a better mood and eager to trade.

I took two live trades, one with FB and one with MU.

The plan, based on back-testing, was not to trade AAPL and have FB as my primary focus. FB quickly got the minimum trading volume for its setups (>300k in under 1 minute is the minimum for FB). FB had a OK setup bouncing off the 184.25 support level. I didn’t want to go long at the VWAP since the PM high and the $185 level was just above it. So I was waiting for the break of those levels, but thinking it would be above the Boulinger bands and extended at that point. So I was a bit on the fence on this setup. Then a large ask appeared on L2 and went long. Actually the stock moved so fast I had a 15c slippage and not a great fill.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                       5min

                              

 

FB moved higher quickly and I got 3 partials in the next minute, each time when the price stalled a bit. Then volume really dried up and I exited on weakness.

    

My next trade was with MU. I was waiting for the 5min candle to finish, but then I saw a really strong bounce from the 9MA and punched through VWAP. I did see that AMD was continuing its slide so I made it a tight stop but I still went long. Price reversed and I got out as fast as I could, but it was dropping fast so had a bit of slippage. I probably shouldn’t have taken the trade since MU may follow AMD. Even though setup no longer looked like a flag I took the trade since it bounced so strongly. I was wrong. At least the 1min ORB on FB paid for my learning on MU.

 

 

 

My score card for today:

  

What I did good today:  I like I was able to utilize L2 for the entry on FB.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded a new stock at the open. Controlled the FOMO on AAPL.

What I did bad today:  MU was too weak to go long, more than half of the bull flag pole was already lost. AMD was falling and I ignored that signal. Plus I should only trade the bull flag/ABCD.

What can I do better tomorrow: Keep learning the 5min ORB.