Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[RisingTrends 2]

Thanks for sharing your trades Rob. I took that same AMD trade but with options and exited as it came back down to my entry level. I'm kicking myself now for getting out after seeing the nice run it had.

[Rob C 826]

3 hours ago, RisingTrends said:

Thanks for sharing your trades Rob. I took that same AMD trade but with options and exited as it came back down to my entry level. I'm kicking myself now for getting out after seeing the nice run it had.

Thanks for your post. At least we can say we predicted the correct direction on AMD. Same thing happen with me on FB, stopped out before its big drop. I have a self imposed 2 trade/day limit so I couldn't get back in.

I was curious about something that I wanted to ask someone who knows options. Once in awhile I see an explosion from a dollar or half dollar level on AMD. A stock at AMDs price you wouldn't think would have such a reaction to these levels especially the 1/2 dollar level. So I was wondering if it happen to be a very large number of puts/calls happen to be at that price. One week I decided to look at AMD's options tables, as premarket prep, to see if I can get any insight. I didn't see any, so I stopped. Do you think it useful to look before the open or this would have no use? Thanks.

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 5/31/19.

A short week of trading, only two days. The markets were closed on Memorial day, a second day lost with CMEG issues and one day lost due to no sleep. Both days were red.

Of the 4 trades total this week, three were OK but one was quite poor, one of the bottom trades I took this month. In general I feel like I fell into a rut and those 6 forced days I couldn’t trade made me feel out of practice.

Back test data (for 1min/2min ORBs) from last week shows FB still making solid 1min/2min for 4 weeks now. AMD showed only marginal data last week and I will decide day by day if to watch it. AAPL showed OK data but will take at least two good weeks in a row before I will consider watching it. Data still shows I should still not be watching it. MU, had a poor week and will not be on my primary watch list. So I only have one stock really in play and I need a second one. ROKU is actually in play for 2min ORBs but since CMEG does not have shares to short I have not placed it on my watch-list. Since I really need a second 2min ORB stock I will consider watching it next week and hope for a ORBU.

Here is my plan for next week:

Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

Do not trade AAPL until better data is seen.

Make FB your prinary focus. But, vol min is changed to 100K in the first 20sec, no longer need 300K in first minute.

AMD is now marginal for the 2min ORB, decide each day if you want it as the secondary 2min ORB focus.

ROKU is in play for the 2min ORB, so consider it as the secondary focus if AMD has a poor premarket.

MU is not in play for 2min ORB.

Remember to trade the 5min ORB as a 5min ORB. Trade review shows I am trading 5min ORBs with 2min ORB methodlogy by reflex. That won't work.

Have a good weekend. 

 

 

 

[RisingTrends 2]

Hi Rob,

That's a great question which I do not feel qualified to answer, and can say that I have personally found little useful data using options tables with intraday trading. I have heard of a few who swear by watching option premiums to help predict market direction and am still investigating. Hopefully one of the more experienced option traders can help.

Have a great weekend!

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary of the month of May.

So May was the first month where my main focus was on the trading process. Versus the previous three months the primary focus was on psychology. I am still on a 2 trades/day maximum, though if the first trade is especially painful I may call it quits for the day. Same goes if the first trade was a nice winner I will stop for the day. I stayed with the same $42 risk per trade through April and May.

I am disappointed with my results this month. My main goal was to improve on my average score card from last month. But I both May and April’s average score are essentially identical. Though not a priority I am not happy it is my first red month since January. It is also my first month <60% win rate since January with a 44% win rate for May. Though I am only in the red by -2.7R for the whole month, which isn’t that bad.

I did have an issue adapting to the change in market. My back-test data showed AAPL was no longer in play for the 2min ORB. But for over a week, AAPL looked so good in the premarket, there I was throwing money away trading it. It took over a week for me to learn my lesson and finally stop.

I also just applied for account at Centerpoint, the issues CMEG had for a couple of days was the last straw. I think I can trust myself with a larger account now so I need to move on.

In May I read (actually listened to) Millionaire Traders. Though it was worth reading I got more out of Market Wizards. I am now listening to the Daily Trading Coach again, reading The Playbook on Kindle and reading Market Mind Games on hard back.

Stats for February/March/April/May:

 

Goals for June:

1)    Don’t go hulk

2)    Learn to control your emotions after a loss

3)    The trade score card average for the month should exceed the previous month.

4)    Reduce risk per trade from $42 back to $25 until trade score card improve

5)    Keep improving health

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 6/03/2019

I had a well-being score of 7.5/10. My nerves were OK. I changed my setup so I am only taking $25 risk/trade (down from $42). Also, I am trading off just my laptop this morning. I missed not having a SPY chart to look at.

I took one live trade FB.

I was actually looking at FB with my one Montage since back test data says it's the only reliable stock for my 1min/2min ORB setup (that I have shares to short). Plus I like it was the only stock on my list that was counter trending. It had a nice drop at the open. Waited for the pull back and went short with VWAP as my stop and the 172.71 daily level as my target. 2min later I took a small partial at the LOTD. Next partial at the $173 level which I probably should not have taken since my 172.71 target was so close. Next partial at my target. Then took another when the price stop moving. The few shares I had left I covered when it broke the 173 level.

 

My score card for today:

FB = 92%    Most of the points off due to too many partials.

 

What I did good today:  Waited for the pull back.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded on just a laptop.

What I did bad today:  Yep, if there is a level I must take a partial......  I need to weight the levels.

What can I do better tomorrow: Should determine the strength of the level in premarket before I take a partial there.

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 6/04/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were OK.

I took two live trades with AMD then FB.

Oddly, I took AMD in the premarket. I was just setting up for the trading day and thought I saw an ABCD on AMD but had no thoughts to trade it. Then I saw a 1200 size ask 6 cents above current price. AMD already found support twice at the 28.36 level, so I thought if it bounces a third time and the big ask is still there I will go long. AMD already had >1M  vol in the premarket. So it made the 3^rd bounce and there were now other large asks in addition to the 1200 one. So I went long. I had a tight stop below the 28.36 support with a target of the HOTD. 2min later I was S/O. I guess it is likely the L2 signals don’t work as well in the premarket.

 

FB actually had volume in the premarket and was heavily in play yesterday and was my primary focus at the open. The price dropped at the open then made beautiful hammer. Though the R/R was only ~1.6 the setup and volume looked too good. So I went long when it broke VWAP with the premarket level as my stop (163.52) and the target of PDC.

 

What it looked like when I entered the trade (1min chart).

If you look at the total trade on the chart below, you would think I had better discipline taking partials today. Actually no. The price was blowing through my planned partial levels so fast I didn’t have a chance to take them. I did take my first partial, as plan, at the previous close. Then it ran through the 200MA and the premarket level so fast I didn’t take a partial. My next two partials were at the $165 and $165.50. The price dropped fast after my third partial and I exited the trade when it broke the 200MA.

I had to remind myself I already took two trades. I almost flipped and went short on FB, I stopped myself just in time. For some reason the premarket trade didn’t instinctively feel like a trade. I almost broke my two trade/day rule.

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  50% win rate today but P/L very positive. Very good risk management on AMD.

How did I challenge myself today?  Took a premarket trade. Learned a bit from it.

What I did bad today: In hindsight AMD was more of a pendant than an ABCD. So should have waited for the break of the pendant and not the bounce off of support.

What can I do better tomorrow: Watch for the pendants.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 6/05/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 (I had a bit of a headache) this morning. My nerves were OK.

I took two live trades both with FB.

FB actually had some volume in the premarket. It showed weakness right at the open and had very good first minute volume, so I was waiting for the pull back. While I was watching the price action I noticed, after breaking the 167 level the first time. It could never break (lower) it again, though it tried several times. The price did reach the VWAP where it instantly bounced hard all the way back to the 50MA. Since it tried so many times unsuccessfuly to break $167, I waited for the break of that level. It broke it and for some unknwon reason I hesitated for just under a second before I took the trade. Too bad, even though I took the trade at $166.96 I had a 14 cent slide (on the fill) due to my hesitation. But, the R/R was still fine so I stayed in the trade. S/O was the 50MA-1min and my target was the 166.23 daily level.

This is the 1min chart when I took the trade:

I took my first partial at the premarket low and my second at the planned 166.23 target. Price retraced soon after and I exited at B/E.

FB reversal was strong and created a nice hammer on the 2min chart. Though volume was decreasing, I have seen good moves with this much volume in the past few weeks with FB. The R/R was low ~1.4, but I really like the 2min hammer and that it had a chance to go red to green. But due to the low R/R I went small share size and went long when it broke VWAP. I took my first 3 partials as planned (PDC, 200MA and $168). I tried to take another partial at the 168.26 level but got a bad fill. At that point I was low on shares so I exited when it cleanly broke that level.

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Had no bias when the market opened.

How did I challenge myself today?  Flipped a trade. That’s not easy for me to do.

What I did bad today: Caught in the headlights on my entry for the first trade. ¾ of a second delay is a lot at the open.

What can I do better tomorrow: Yea, there were some things I did not execute very well. But, it was fun trading today. So I am going to give myself a break and try not be negative today.

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 6/06/2019

I had a well-being score of 3/10 (4 hours of sleep and a nasty headache) this morning. So not trading today.

FOMO OK, I decided not to even watch or SIM. The only time I got near my computer was to grab the SD memory, which I immediately fumbled with it and dropped it on the floor. Then it took me a minute, crawling on the floor, to find it because my eyes wouldn't focus. That's when I thought, "wow, I am so glad I am not trading the open right now".

[Rob C 826]

Friday 6/07/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning (5 hours a sleep). My nerves were OK. Since it was Friday I traded half share sizes today.

I just opened an account with Centerpoint. I thought Friday would be a good day to try it live since I am trading half shares anyway. I was surprised my layout on DAS I had saved (CMEG) would look the same on Centerpoint, since it is the platform that matters. It didn’t and took about an hour to convert over and look right. I also could not get the screen recorder to work correctly so sadly my trades were not recorded. I also wasn’t happy I didn’t see any improvement in shorts over CMEG. But will look further into that.

I took two live trades with FB then AMD.

Knowing I am trading half sizes helped the nerves a bit since I usually double stop out on Fidays, so I thought all I would lose is -1R.

FB open weak and the 2min candle was going to engulf the premarket 5min candle. I like there was a daily level right below VWAP. I was focusing both on AMD and FB at the open so I was a little late with the entry and got a bad fill. So my R/R was not adequate anymore. But I did like that it may have a chance to green to red so I covered about 1/3 of my shares to reduce the risk. Price almost made it to my first target than retraced and I exited at my planned S/O.

 

My next trade was with AMD. AMD open weak and went green to red. It retraced and tested the PDC where it took a strong bounce. Volume was still heavy. I was waiting for a breakout and for some reason I thought the break of the previous two candles BODY was a good enough break. Not sure why I didn’t wait for the break of premarket low or the LOTD or wait until the 5min candle is finished. It didn’t and the price instantly reversed after I entered and burst through my S/O level (PDC) so fast I had a large slide on my exit price.

There was another issue with AMD. Since most of the stocks I trade are higher price (not sure why I guess they make better 1min/2min ORB candidates recently) that I have set my buttons on DAS for higher priced stocks. When I take a trade I use a button with the risk per share cost and have it calculate the shares. My choices for a stock at AMD’s price is limited. So with the S/O level I choose I did not have a button for half shares at that cost. I could have rounded up or down. No idea why I rounded to higher shares. So I only took 30% less shares than normal. Thus with the slide on exit I took a full -1R on that loss.

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Well it wasn’t a complete disaster like Fridays usually are.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded with a new broker

What I did bad today:  Poor entries again. Not the first time this week. Not happy that my loss for the day is -1.4R. I really want to stick to -1R on Fridays.

What can I do better tomorrow: I need to keep the exact entry point in mind at all times and constantly review the decision making process if to enter at the spot.

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 6/10/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning (5 hours a sleep but deep). My nerves were not great since I had an extremely busy weekend. Thus, I did not get a chance to perform chart review. So the only stock I could trust was FB for the 1min/2min ORB.

I took two live trades with FB.

When I saw FB price drop, my plan was wait for the hammer to be created because I was still long bias. It did retrace and start to create a hammer but then it bounced twice off of VWAP. So I was thinking I may be wrong and went short on the second bounced as it broke the daily level at 174.30. It went against me so fast, that by the time DAS drew the red triangle it already went against me and was at my stop out. I immediately covered. The trade was less than 1 second in duration. I should have waited for the break of the 200MA as well, but it flew by it without any remorse the first time that I was thinking it wasn’t respecting it at the moment. Plus, I really like the triple level (VWAP and the daily level on the 1min and 50MA on the 5min).

Now the hammer I originally plan to trade off of was created. I waited for the break of the HTD and 50MA and went long. I tried to take my first partial at the $175 but got a horrible fill almost back at B/E. Then partialled at the premarket high and at $175.50. The next two partials I took when the price lost its momentum. Then exited the few remaining shares at the first 1min low.

Here is the chart. Please ignore the dark line at $175.80, I am still having trouble with DAS recorder and it left a line.

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Win$/Loss$ is greater than 2.

How did I challenge myself today?  Exited a losing trade under 1 second. Did not keep my bias after the open.

What I did bad today:  Though the first trade wasn’t terrible, I should have known it was a “C” trade and waited for a better opportunity.

What can I do better tomorrow: Catch up on the chart review I missed this weekend. I feel a little blind without it. And of course work on the patience.

Edited June 11, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 6/07/19.

Weekly summary a little late due to very busy weekend. Missed one day of trading due to poor sleep.

Made 7 trades this week with a solid score card average of 87.7%. Win% was 57% which is adequate. What I am most happy about is my win$/loss$ ratio is greater than 2. Which made this a very green week.

Back test data (for 1min/2min ORBs) from last week shows FB still making very solid 1min/2min for 5 weeks now. AMD showed better data this week so we will still call it in play.  Roku and TSLA seem to be in play now, but even with Centerpoint broker ROKU shorts are not readily available. TSLA has a very different personality I haven’t figured out yet so still in observation mode.

My thoughts on Centerpoint Securities so far. I have to admit I was a little disappointed the first day when I didn’t see an “S” on the Montage for ROKU. Now there was shorts for SQ, so it is better than CMEG, so I will have to see in the next few weeks how good their shorts are. They do have a “hard to find” short process, but I use to use that with E-trade. Though very effective finding shorts, it is not useful at the open. The other concern is I was just expecting commission costs and no fees on my trades, since that is how the offer was described. Then my first trade I saw the fees cost equal to my commissions! Was quite surprised. The fees were things like SEC fees, which sure sound like regulatory fees that was supposedly wrapped up into the commission costs. I emailed them for clarification. I have not received an answer yet.

Here is my plan for this week:

Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

Do not trade AAPL until better data is seen.

Make FB your primary focus. Vol min is 100K in the first 20sec.

AMD is in play again for the 2min ORB.

ROKU is in play for the 2min ORB, but I still don't have shorts so keep as a third choice.

MU is not in play for 2min ORB, but it has been looking good for the 3min ORB. So keep MU in mind if you are looking for a trade in that time frame

Remember to trade the 5min ORB as a 5min ORB. Trade review shows I am trading 5min ORBs with 2min ORB methodology by reflex. That won't work.

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 6/11/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves again were not good, probably still recovering from a busy weekend. Very disappointed with my trading today. I apologize in advance for my wordy journal entry.

I took two live trades with FB.

My first trade was very poor trade management. I acted like I didn’t know how to trade FB. FB open strong and was always above the VWAP. It gave a slight pull back at $179 but it was always above the Boulinger band so I didn’t want to enter the trade. I finally went long as a standard 1min ORB at the break of the first candle. The R/R was not good using VWAP as my S/O since there was a daily level not far above it. I was considering the $180 level as the target which did have a R/R~2. But since that daily level was concerning I went half shares. The price reached my first partial level. Now everything up to this point is still OK. This is an OK trade, not great but I am fine with it. But this is when things went bad. Since I usually take partials too early I was holding back trying to teach myself to be patient. That is fine, but I am not sure if I didn’t notice or just wasn’t thinking, but the price has move $1.50 in just over 1 minute. That is a lot for FB and it is extended. I really need to take a partial. I didn’t.

The only way I can explain this, is to hold myself from taking a partial I needed to do something else so I added more shares on the 2min ORB break. I did this just below a level and I should have known even if FB moves up more it will not be soon. It will need a consolidation period first so there was no hurry to add shares at that moment. Again the real reason is by adding I won’t take a partial.

Then this is the real killer to the trade. I seldom add shares to my trades, so I guess the trade management is not thought out well. VWAP is now no longer a correct S/O since it is too far. B/E or bottom of the previous candle would have been the correct S/O. Again I didn’t think and let it go all the way to VWAP. And to add insult to my trading I added shares at the bounce of VWAP, which wouldn’t have been too bad, except FB doesn’t bounce off of VWAP in these situations. I should have known it will power through as it usually does. I did exit at the originally planned S/O level. Which should have never stayed as my S/O level.

After FB broke through VWAP I waited for the break of the daily level. R/R was not good, but this I remembered about FB and it usually has some momentum when it breaks VWAP at this time of the day. So I shorted. The price did make it to my first partial but then quickly reversed. Since my B/E was just below a daily level that the price seem to show some respect for I moved my S/O there. I was then quickly stopped out for a slight loss.

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Stuck to my two trade max

How did I challenge myself today?  Flipped a position.

What I did bad today:  Did not use my knowledge of FB. Added shares before I had a plan.

What can I do better tomorrow: Adding shares prohibited until rules and procedures are implemented.

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 6/12/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were actually OK due to some new rules I implemented. Sorry another wordy journal entry.

I took three (yes three) live trades with FB and MU.

I did some soul searching yesterday and realized I need to adjust my rules a bit. I have been seeing three issues since I started with the daily max trade rules.

1)    Trade not going well, I should get out. But I only have two trades allowed so I am going to hold it until my planned stop. This has been killing my win$/Loss$ ratio. Before my max daily trade rule I was pretty good at getting out of losing trades early. Everyone says to get out of a trade that doesn’t feel right you can always get back in. But I can’t due to my max daily trade rule.

2)    I get a bad fill, I know the fill just destroyed my R/R but I still stay in the trade because I hate losing a chance to trade.

3)    I correctly took small shares due to the trades particular risk. Then the trade goes in my favor and I try to squeeze out more than I should from the trade because I just used up an allowable trade. This happen yesterday.

So new rule. I can increase my max daily trades by one if I exit a trade early due to concerns that it is no longer a good trade. I have some specific parameters, that I won’t bore you with, that takes the gray area away.

My first trade was with FB. This was a strange one. I was watching it in premarket and I was so long bias. So I decided if it goes red to green I will go long. It did but I went light on the shares. There was a daily level just above it, but I thought if it pops above it there is no levels until $179.65. It was a bit exciting waiting for the one minute for the market to open but nerves OK, because from staring at FB charts for the last month this was a good R/R. It popped at open as I hoped and I got 3 partials in before it reversed. From experience with FB this drop was not going to stop and I exited well above B/E. I was thinking about flipping, but I felt like what Andrew says, I already made my money with FB and I moved on.

When looking for other trades I liked MU, but I missed the entry. I like the 1min ORB when it bounces off the VWAP, but I was still in the FB trade at the time. Then it made a shooting star (reverse hammer) and R/R was good. But honestly my back test data says this has <50% of working on MU. So not sure if it was FOMO, but I took the trade anyway. Of course it instantly reversed on me. My S/O was VWAP, but since I have the new rule I got out when it broke the daily level at 33.86 and made a 1min hammer. Of course holding to my original S/O would have worked better. But this is a new rule. There will be some push and pull for a couple weeks before it works well. I am totally out of practice on early S/Os.

Then MU bounced off of VWAP again and started forming a 3min ORB setup. According to back test data on MU this is has a nice edge to it. I shorted at the body break of the first two 1min candles. Price actually reached my first partial but I got a bad fill. Then I exited at B/E.

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Used my knowledge of how FB could open and took advantage of it by taking a position in the premarket.

How did I challenge myself today?  Opened a position in the premarket. Took three trades. Trading something else besides FB/AMD.

What I did bad today:  Ignored my back test data on MU. I should have known that was a low probability setup. Didn’t use my new 3 trade rule very well today.

What can I do better tomorrow: Be more careful on the early S/Os, there is a learning curve I need to go through again. Follow your back test data!!

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 6/13/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were actually good. I planned to take the day off and spend it with my family today so that put me into a good mood.

I took two live trades both with FB.

FB opened with adequate volume. I was waiting for the price to crack the 200MA-5min. My stop was VWAP and target was high of premarket which is a R/R~2. I went long at the break of the 200MA with small share size. The price had moved 38 cent move from open which was ideal. Not extended but large enough to give direction.The price did stay above the MA for a few seconds but then reversed. I actually exited the trade at $175.70 but got filled at $175.50. Ouch! Which doubled my loss.

The 5min chart when I took the trade:

The 2^nd min candle engulfed the first, which is a high % short for FB this close to the open. So I flipped my position and shorted at the LOTD. My stop was at 175.50 (start of the engulfing) with PDC as the target. I was able to get two partials but just missed reaching my 3^rd. I exited when it broke above the 200MA-5min.

The charts for both trades:

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Took good setups that usually work for FB. Flipped a position. That is not easy for me to do quickly.

How did I challenge myself today?  Exited a losing trade early. Though with the bad fill it looks like I exited at the planned stop point.

What I did bad today:  Not happy always using my two trades at the open. I always hope of using only one and saving the other for a different setup and/or time frame.

What can I do better tomorrow: I want more variety in my trading setups. If I can’t than I need to start using the SIM again.