Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 3/27/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. My nerves were better this morning.

A very disappointing day.

I had two trades today both on AMD.

There was no scalp setup so waited for the 2min ORB. I took an early ORB (9:31:11) with a very bearish candle.

Checklist:

This was the same setup as yesterday on AMD and it didn’t work out so why did I try again? The first level to take a partial was too strong and it bounced. I was able to take a partial at that level (25.69), then S/O at B/E.

The next trade I was waiting for a clean break of the 25.69 with VWAP as my S/L. same setup as my previous trade. But AAPL caught mt attention on another chart for an instant. When I look back the price passed my entry by about 5 cents. Thus I should not have taken the trade. But since my finger was on the trigger my FOMO took the trade and I went short. Now I have a bad R/R and my S/L is far away. So I pulled my S/L in just above the 25.69, though there is no technical reason to do so. I then got S/O at that level quickly. The price then went up to 1 cent below my original S/O plan, reversed and had a huge run down which I missed.

 

What I did good today: Stayed to my 2 trade limit though very painful to do so.

How did I challenge myself today?  Recovered emotionally from the bad trading today quickly (for me). I thought it would bother me all day. But I was OK an hour later. Not fast enough to trust myself with another trade, but a big improvement from me.

What I did bad today:  Didn’t follow my plan on the second AMD trade. Since I missed my entry I should either not take the trade or wait for the setup to emerge again (which it did).

What can I do better tomorrow: Control the FOMO. Today was a big lesson that it is OK if you miss an entry.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 3/28/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. My nerves were good this morning.

An interesting day. I actually took 3 trades today though I have a 2 trade/day limit. The third trade was supposed to be in simulation. I am having an issue with the simulator. I seem to only be 50% successful switching from live to sim. I double checked the order settings both on the platform menu and the montage but it’s still very iffy.

I had two trades today on AMD and one on LULU.

AMD had a scalp setup both long and short. And yes I scalped it in both directions.

The first scalp was long. I entered when it broke the 25.18 TL and first partial (large partial) was at the Boullinger band. Then out at B/E.

The there was a scalp setup in the other direction. I went short on the new LOTD with my first target 200MA and a second target the 24.89 level. I took a large partial at the the 200MA and S/O at B/E. These partials on scalps aren’t working. I may have to stop that.

I switched to SIM and double checked it. Then I liked LULU (great R/R and a near 1^st target) and decided to make this SIM trade as realistic as possible. Though I like the slow and steady up swing to VWAP, if I was really trading this live I would give it a large room and a wide S/L. So I set my S/L at the 5 min 20MA. Then I went long and quickly checked if it was on SIM. It was not. But since I took a realistic trade and my nerves were good I stayed with it. I took my first partial at a premarket tech level (168.77), though not sure where I got that level from. Then took partials a bit arbitrary. Then all out on the 1min new low.

 

What I did good today: Nerves were good. Great S/Os at B/E.

How did I challenge myself today?  Handled an accidental live trade well.

What I did bad today:  Took an accidental live trade.

What can I do better tomorrow: Need to figure out what is wrong with switching from Live to SIM.

[Rob C 826]

Friday 3/28/2019

I had a wellbeing score of 5/10 this morning. My nerves were good.

I didn’t want to repeat what happen on the last day of February. February was a good month but I traded like an idiot on the last day which mentally seem to make the whole month seem like poor results. So I decided last night no scalp trades today, since they can go real bad sometimes. So of course, like clock work both MU and AMD are in play and have a really nice scalp setup showing up in the premarket. So it was a good test of FOMO control to watch them pop without me and reach my target.

I must have been really picky today because at the 2 minute mark I still didn’t find an ORB that I like, Finally MU came back down to test VWAP. If it bounced from VWAP and there was a really good R/R to the HOTD (which is also at a tech level). It did bounce and I went long. The price did pop up and missed my first target by 2 cents then came back down and I stopped out at my planned price. Since it was a loss, that is the only trade I allowed myself to take.

The forming 5min candle when I took the trade:

 

The stop out:

What I did good today: Was pickier than usual on choosing my first trade.

How did I challenge myself today?  Fought the FOMO, stuck to my plan.

What I did bad today:  MU was setting up more for an ORB like AMD has been doing lately. It would have been better to take a partial entry and waited for a better entry or confirmation.

What can I do better tomorrow/next week: Do my weekend prep work. There’s lots of charts I need to evaluate. I am also looking forward to analyzing my trades for the month.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

 

 

Live trading summary for week ending 3/29/19.

A good week, from a trading quality standpoint. Except for one trade, which I missed my entry but took the trade anyway, the rest of the trades were OK. They had a good setups, execution and risk management was good.

My trade evaluation by week:

 

Lots of good learning this week. This week I restarted trading the open with a scalp trade. I use to scalp for the first 3 months of live trading. But with a 1 trade/day rule, starting February, I didn’t want to waste my one trade on a scalp.

I had issues successfully switching to SIM on one occasion so I did have an accidental 3 trade day this week.

This weekend I will analyze my trades for this month and determine my game plan for next week and April.

 

Have a good weekend.

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary of the month of March.

I have not gone hulk in two months!! I have not hit my daily max loss in 2 months!! I also never looked at my unrealized gain for the whole month of March.

In February I stuck to a 1 trade/day rule, which was only broken once on a revenge trade. In March I allowed a second trade a day if the first trade was a winning trade. I can’t trust my emotions yet after a loss. I did, inadvertently, break the 1 + 1 trade a day rule once in March, but I thought I was taking a SIM trade. Once I entered the trade and realized it was real I stuck with it to its conclusion.

Since my equity was positive and did not go hulk in March I am increasing my risk per trade from $30 to $36.

In March I read Mastering Trading Stress by Ari Kiev

Stats for February/March:

 

My plan for February through April was to complete one goal: not to go hulk. Hopefully I improved my trading skills as well, but that was not my primary goal. After two months not hitting daily max loss, I am going to try and extend the goal for April: to be able to take an emotionally controlled trade after a loss. I am not there yet. But my goal is to be there by end of April.

Analyzing data from Feb/March, I have taken 41 2min ORBs with a 63% success rate. This is marginal. It is not bad enough to give up on it, but obviously needs more work. The win$/Loss$ ratio is high enough to make it profitable so there is hope. But either the ratio or winning% needs to improve. The opening scalp and 5min ORB does not have enough data, the last two months, to determine accuracy.

Reviewing the data also showed me something interesting. AAPL and MU have been big money makers for me, but AMD has not. I knew my trading with AMD has been more difficult, but I was surprised that I am at a net loss, over the last two months, trading AMD. I need to shy away from trading AMD especially on the 2min ORBs.

[Rob C 826]

Monday 4/01/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. My nerves were bad.

A bad start of the month. Hopefully I just took the worse trade of the month.

First, since my nerves were bad I didn’t want to take an opening scalp. But MU was setting up so much in the premarket I couldn’t help it. I went long when it broke the premarket high and sold all when it reached the daily level at 42.56. Now all last week I have been taking a partials on scalps and yelling at myself not to since all my scalps reversed after my partial. So today I made sure and sold everything at the TL. Of course it moved another 20 cents after I sold. Figures. But my data, so far, does show I should exit all at my target on scalps. I was pretty happy with scalp of +1.4R. Since my nerves were bad I considered calling it a day and of course in hind sight I should have.

 

I usually like to take a small break between trades to reset. But I immediately saw AAPL was setting up for a good 2min ORBD. I was planning to go short if/when it bounces off of VWAP. Now I am not sure what happen, likely nerves, but I immediately changed my mind and went long to get a scalp to VWAP. Maybe I was in a scalping mode still since I didn’t take a short break after the last trade. I do have a 1min reverse setup. But I only take that when it reverses on a TL with volume. This had neither. The moment I took the trade I was asking myself, “why did I do that?” I haven’t watched the video and not sure if I want to, so I don’t know if I got a bad fill or was I caught in the headlights. Either way my share size is now 2X larger than it should (using the LOTD as my S/O) for my entry.

The price actually moved in my favor for 10 cents giving me plenty of opportunity to get out of a trade I knew was bad. But I didn’t and finally got stopped out at -2R. I only remember once last month I had this bad of a S/O and now this occurred on my first day of the month! The market was nice enough to help enforce this lesson by immediately reversing and reaching my target. Also, in time, the market showed if I followed my original plan (short at the bounce of VWAP) it would have been a good trade. Wow, I did a lot wrong on that trade.

What I did good today: Fought through nerves and did a good opening scalp. Fought through FOMO and exited at the planned price.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded with a larger risk/trade.

What I did bad today:  Made so many mistakes on the AAPL trade. Ignored my plan, took a trade without a setup. When I realized I was in a bad trade with too large of a share size I did not get out when I could have. Took a -2R S/O.

What can I do better tomorrow: I need to take a small break between trades to reset. Since my total loss for today was only ~-0.5R, if I learned and retained something it was worth it.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 4/02/2019

Wow, this month is going bad.

I had a well-being score of 4/10 this morning. So I had to use SIM trades only.

I have been having trouble with the DAS SIM lately. In general more than half the trades are actually live when I try to trade SIM. Today as usual I followed the instructions in BBT website. I changed the order settings in the menu, then I changed them in montage and I even used the account change hot key. I actually was so involved in the trade, it was a few seconds before I checked if it was live or SIM, then I got caught in the headlights looking at my positions window and exited the trade well below S/O. I took a more aggressive trade on a low float for practice since I thought I was on SIM. Not sure why I was so confident it was on DEMO. It’s amazing how the montage will say my demo account (I checked right before I took the trade and checked it on video) and the platform still took the trade live. Another day with -2R S/O. What a month so far.

Will call DAS support later today. As of now SIM is completely off limits. I see Etrade just started paper trading. I may use that instead for SIM days.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 4/03/2019

I had a well-being score of 3/10 this morning. Not sure why I even got out of bed. Obviously only SIM trades today.

I had an extended chat with DAS support yesterday and they finally discovered why my SIM trades were randomly SIM/Live. It seems the “Global” box has its limits. I guess my layout was unusual enough that the SIM account did not transfer to my scripted keys. But it’s fixed now and all trades were SIM today. And of course since they were SIM I had a really good trading session.

I took three SIM trades, two with AAPL and one with AMD.

My first trade with AAPL was an early step 2min ORB. Since I finally had time for chart review last weekend I saw that my 2min ORB Step setup needs modification. But I haven’t finished my back testing on at least 3 stocks so I don’t have it as a rule yet. But I did finish my back testing on AAPL so I was trying to follow it today. So my new 2min ORB checklist (at least for AAPL)

The only part of the setup that wasn’t fully satisfied is the 2^nd candle was not the same size or larger than the first. But it was pretty close so I am OK with that.

This is what it looked like when I took the trade:

But I was stopped out at the 50MA.

Then when it crossed the high of premarket I went long again and this time it worked out.

Actually AAPL was still running but I had so few shares left and I really wanted to get into a fresh trade so I exited.

So, even though this was in SIM, I still walked away from my platform, after my first trade, for a few minutes to reset. When I came back I saw I missed several chances with AMD on a 10min ORB. I would have liked to gone long at the 28.50 daily level or at least at the break of the 10min candle. Instead I only had the HOTD setup. I went long at HOTD but kept my stop at the 28.50 so it wasn’t that many shares. Anyway I got two partials in and then all out when it broke back through the 20MA

 

What I did good today: Fought through a really low well-being score to trade OK.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded with new 2min ORB step setup rules.

What I did bad today:  First trade was too early, even though it had almost all of my criteria satisfied. It was just too early to take an ORB.

What can I do better tomorrow: Need to get my health better or I won’t trade live for the rest of the week. And as usual I need to be more patient with entries.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Rob C

[Mark D. 435]

On 3/30/2019 at 5:31 PM, Rob C said:

 

Live trading summary of the month of March.

I have not gone hulk in two months!! I have not hit my daily max loss in 2 months!! I also never looked at my unrealized gain for the whole month of March.

In March I read Mastering Trading Stress by Ari Kiev

 

Great job on not hulking out and not hitting max loss for two months!

Do you recommend that book? 

[Rob C 826]

3 hours ago, Mark D. said:

Great job on not hulking out and not hitting max loss for two months!

Do you recommend that book? 

Thanks Mark.

I only mildly recommend the book. I hope to write an online review this weekend. 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 4/04/2019

I had a well-being score of 4/10 this morning. So still stuck in SIM trades today.

I took a lot of trades (5 trades – that’s a lot for me), taking advantage of being in SIM and all of my trades were brief.

My first trade was with AAPL. I took an early 2min ORBU when price broke through 2 TLs and HOTD. The price action was not good afterwards and I made two quick partials. Then got S/O at B/E. It immediately reversed and ran, but not sure how I would have done this different except get back in as a 5min ORB.

 

My next trade was with MU, wow that was a fizzle. It had a mini ABCD and I went long after it broke the 42.8 TL. I made it to my 1^st partial than dropped quickly and S/O at B/E.

 

My next trade was with TSLA. This was my one bad trade. I missed the break of the 200MA because I was trading with MU. So I should have waited for the break of the 5min candle. I didn’t and got stopped out. I knew this wasn’t that great of a trade when I took it so I went half shares so it only cost me -0.5R.

Then I waited for TSLA to finally break the 5min candle. I went long. The price did make it to my first partial, but then fizzled and got S/O at B/E.

 

FB was my last trade. It was holding VWAP for 10 min and having trouble breaking the 177.12 TL. When I thought it cleanly broke it I went long (got a great fill) and was able to get two partials before getting stopped out at B/E.

Not a very exciting day. Nothing ran, one S/O, 3 fizzles and one small winner. I know Tradervue will probably call my “fizzles” winners. But, if this was live they would be just enough to pay for commissions. So I don’t really call them winners. On the other hand, if I was trading live my first partial would have been larger shares. I was taking smaller partials today since I was on SIM and not as nervous.

 

What I did good today: Good stop outs. I had a lot of practice with that today.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded outside of AAPL/MU/AMD.

What I did bad today:  First trade was too early.

What can I do better tomorrow: I am really hoping I feel well enough to trade live tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 4/05/2019

I had a well-being score of 4.5/10 this morning. So I can finally trade live today!! Nerves good, eager to trade.

I actually took two trades today and the first one was a loss. This was the first time in 10 weeks I allowed myself to do this!! The plan for April is to control my emotions enough by the end of April to start trading more. Hopefully by the end of the month I can trade up to 3 times a day and allow two losses. This week I was waiting for the right day. Monday nerves were high and trading was a disaster. Tuesday-Thursday I was on SIM. But today nerves were good and my first trade was a loss. Now the plan was, if I had a 1^st trade loss and to me it looked like a good trade that just happen to get stopped out, I will take a break come back to the platform and if I still think the first trade was a good one, look for another opportunity.

Both my trades were with AAPL. I already knew today was an interesting day when it was 9:33am and I hadn’t taken a trade yet!! I can count on one hand the number of days, in the last 3 months, that I did not take a trade in the first 3 minutes. But I didn’t see any good 2min ORB setups, so I waited. Then AAPL set up really nicely with a “Vish” setup. Plus I liked the two bullish looking previous 1min candles. You must wait for it to break a major TL or the setup is not complete. I waited for it to break the 196.50 level then went long. Got a good fill.

The forming 5min candle looked like this when I took the trade:

 

Though the setup was good, I got quickly stopped out. Since my well-being score was only 4.5/10 I only took half shares, so it only cost me -0.5R. Then I evaluated my trade which looked fine and stepped away from my platform for less than a minute.

When I arrived back the same setup was still valid. I waited for the price to break 196.50 again and went long. This time the price popped. I took a first partial at a minor premarket tech level. Then two more partials before price dropped to B/E. I let the S/O slide a few pennies. This was decided a few day ago. What I keep seeing is when there are multiple TLs right next to each other, just below my B/E I S/O at my B/E and the price bounces back a couple of pennies below my B/E. So I let it drop below the TL to make sure then stopped out. Most of my shares were already sold so it didn’t cost me much to confirm the S/O.

So I am quite happy with my day. It’s nice to go into the weekend with a good trading day.

 

What I did good today: I was patient!! I actually waited when I didn’t see a 2min ORB setup. I didn’t force the trade.

How did I challenge myself today?  Made a second trade after a loss, feeling no revenge.

What I did bad today:  I am worried that I am trading AAPL too much lately.

What can I do better tomorrow/next week: I am hoping I can keep going with the 2 trade/day max rule to replace the 1+1 trade/day max rule.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 4/05/19.

A very tumultuous week.  Looking at the data, it actually looks like a good week, but it surely wasn’t. Monday took a trade on a bad setup, then got a bad entry and instead of getting out quickly (for a small profit) I held on to the original S/O which is no longer valid due to the bad entry. Got hit with a -2R loss which is highly unusual for me. The trade just before it was a nice winner so only a small loss for the day. But, it really hit me emotionally.

Then Tuesday my well-being score was too low for live trading so I traded SIM, but the SIM did not work and my trade was inadvertently live. Since I was supposedly on SIM I took a trade on a volatile stock, I usually would not trade, for practice. The shock I was trading live caused a delay in my S/O and I got another -2R loss, back to back days! I have not added that trade to my data set since it was a mainly a platform issue. It took a while but DAS support figured out the issue.

Then Wednesday and Thursday my well-being score was still too low for live trading so I traded SIM. Both days were good trading. Finally, Friday I was able to trade live again and traded well extending my max trade rule from 1 + 1 trades/day (only trade a second time if the first trade was a winner) to 2 trades/day maximum.

My trade evaluation by week:

 

And SIM this week:

 

I need to get my health back next week so I can trade live more. But, this was the only time I got sick all year so I shouldn’t complain.

 

Have a good weekend.

[Rob C 826]

Monday 4/08/2019

I had a well-being score of 4.5/10 this morning. So traded at half shares. Nerves OK.

I took two trades today, AAPL and MU. Though AAPL was a well executed trade, MU was not and has left me feeling pretty sour about my trading today.

AAPL was not in play in the premarket, but we got about 0.5M shares in the first minute which puts it back on my radar. A near perfect 2min “Step” setup occurred except it was veto’d by being above the 4sig Boulinger band when it broke the TL. So waited for the 3^rd 1min candle and when it broke the 197.08 TL I went long. It made it to my 1^st partial but missed my 2^nd partial by a couple of pennies. Then I exited at B/E.

 

 

Very disappointed with myself on my second trade with MU. To me this was an early 5min ORB, than a late 2min ORB, which makes it ridiculous that I never glanced at the 5min chart before or during the trade. I liked the steady upward trend on the 1min chart. But, I didn’t have a good S/O price. Using just below the 42.50 TL was too close and VWAP was so far I would not have a 2 to 1 R/R. So I chose the bottom of the 1min candle as my S/O loss and chose the share size accordingly. The big problem with that is I never use  that as a S/O. So I just made a big compromise to my trade, just so I could force myself to take it. Then I took the trade right at the Boulinger band. That is allowed (as long as it doesn’t go passed, but again frowned upon). Then for my final setup mistake, I never glanced at the 5min chart. All of this analysis was on the 1min chart. If I just glanced at the 5min, I would have saw the 50MA right above my planned entry, thus immediately vetoing the trade. Not seeing that I went long when it broke the 42.50 TL. I was even wondering, when the price bounced off an “invisible” TL at 42.59, why that was and too bad since it’s a couple of pennies from my first partial. Of course that was the 5min-50MA it just bounced off of. Then for no reason I decided to S/O when it broke the 42.50 level, though my planned S/O was lower. Of course it instantly reversed, after my S/O and reached my first target (almost reached my second target). So if I kept to my planned S/O it would have salvaged the trade.

 

 

 

 

What I did good today: I took a good 2min ORB trade on AAPL.

How did I challenge myself today?  I waited for the AAPL trade to come to me instead of chasing it.

What I did bad today:  MU, Yikes!  I took a bad setup and then mismanaged the trade.

What can I do better tomorrow: I don’t want to make the mistake of not looking at two time frames. I made this mistake a lot in February and don’t want to start again.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 4/09/2019

I had a well-being score of 4.5/10 this morning. So traded at half shares. Nerves on the bad side.

I took two trades today both with AAPL .

The first trade was a 2min ORB, a little before 9:37 on a Vish setup. I went long when it broke the 200MA. The instant I took the trade the stock reversed to my S/O. Then the instant I S/O it reversed back. Thus, it should caused maximum emotional response. But I was pretty good about. All I thought,” was this actually a Vish setup or a Step setup?”  Which is a good question. The 1^st 1min candle was very bullish so I waited for the price to clear the 200MA and went long. But by the time I went long the body of the candle is almost the length of the wick. Still bullish, but not “very”. 

So I should have treated it as a Vish setup and taken it as it broke VWAP, though that is only a 1.8 R/R so marginal. Or call it a step setup and waited to finish the 2min candle. Either decision would have been profitable. But treating it as a Vish setup when it became a step setup caused a full –R S/O.

The moment I took the first trade:

2min candle                          1min candles

   

Since I seemed to be in control of my emotions, I took a second trade. I waited for the “step” setup to occur and went long again when it cleanly passed the 200MA. It reached my first partial but then went back to B/E. So there is a new S/O I am trying (only for AAPL). If there is a large or several large tech levels just beyond my B/E, I still hold until they are breached. Yes it makes a winning trade into a losing, but I have seen this happen way too often where I stop out and it reverses right after in my favor. So it went passed my B/E 3 times but each time bouncing off of VWAP until it finally ran. I was able to get 3 more partials, missed the 4th one by 2c, then exited when it cleanly broke back through TLs.

 

What I did good today:  Finally had a live trade that ran. For the last month they only seem to happen when I am on SIM. Controlled my emotions really well after S/O.

How did I challenge myself today?  Planned for a S/O to go beyond my B/E (back to the original S/O before the partial). It worked out but was stressful.

What I did bad today:  Took the wrong setup on a trade. Need to re-evaluate setups on the fly.

What can I do better tomorrow: I will check my data and have a detailed definition of a “very” bullish candle by tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by Rob C