Journal / Growing a small account (Sim Trades)

[Willy 25]

Hi Brandon,

I know that everybody is different. i am going to give you my point of view, maybe you can take some ideas.

Based on my experience NKE hardly ever  take a direction at  open . i don't like this stock for my strategies at open.

First trade on NKE:  I think VWAP is one of the most powerful indicators, if you are going to buy that far from it,  you need to take less shares in order to put you stop loss  a few cents below VWAP.

Short trade on NKE:5 min should be your guide for the direction of the trade. After that big green candle and over VWAP i don't like to go short.

 Trade on CAR: Stop loss should be a few cents over VWAP.

Good trade on CGC. You execute the plan.

Note: I use the 50 and 200 MA's on 1 and 5 min chart. A lot of time they work as support or resistance. (today your short on CAR rebound from one of them). 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2019 by Willy

[Brandon K 64]

@Willy, thanks for your feedback! I changed my charts to include the 50MA again. Although, I don't remember whether it was an exponential or simple. I added exponential. I took the 50/200 off in an attempt to limit the amount of noise and indicators, but seems that it is also reducing information on the trades. I honestly have forgetten the power of VWAP and need to start back taking that into my decision making. When I see price actions close above VWAP on the first 5-minutes, I'm thinking bullish and then to see it fall like a brick from selling pressure. That messes with my mental and also when it happens the other way around. Struggling to figure out what is chop/fake outs , etc.

[Brandon K 64]

2/22/2019

Took some advice and re-added the 50MA on both the 5/1-minute charts. 

• Made several mistakes today. 2 hotkey errors.
  • Error on $DBX taking 400 shares instead of 100. 
  • Error on $W by shorting 300 shares instead of 50 (order rejected from lack of BP)
  • Sizing on $ROKU was 100 and probably was too much for the move given my entry.

$DBX - First trade, shorted on a pullback to the 9MA 1-minute. Got caught in a squeeze and covered for a loss. (shorted 400 instead of 100)

Second trade, Went back short 200 after the price action came back rejecting the 9MA and VWAP 5-minute. Price action pushed down and stopped me out before getting the move. If I had 100 shares, (or maybe not taking the loss I did the first time), would have held longer and survived the pullback.

$ROKU - Went long 100 shares looking for the opening range break up. Stopped out after the price action dropped. 

$INTC - Took one more trade and went 200 shares short looking for a move down through VWAP. My signal was the close below VWAP although the price action closed on the 9MA 5-minute.Stop loss was around .06 at the 9MA 1-minute. Covered at the 50MA 5-minute.

$W - I hit the hotkey at 146ish around 9:38 for break of high of day. I wanted 50 shares, but hit the trigger for 300 and got rejected for buying power. 

Result:

 

[Brandon K 64]

My share sizing is awful. I think most of my entries are good, but can't survive the pullbacks because of the sizing. I get caught up on feeling that taking a small share size means I need to get a bigger move to make the trade worth it. Then, if I don't take a big enough share size to make the trade worth it, commissions will eat up anything I profit from. So, scaling out really isn't an option unless the move is substantial. Previous days, I had some good moves, but scaled out and racked up a good amount of commissions. 

Changes I will look at making on share sizes:

• Change hotkeys from 50/100/200 to 50/75/100.
• Decrease share sizing on certain trades that are risky.
• Decrease share sizing on trades to survive possible pullbacks.

I want to keep the hotkeys as they are, but the temptation to make up losses keeps me wanting to go bigger. At the same time, I should have the mental to not use those keys if the trade doesn't call for them. Same way I've built up resiliency to not trade low floats and not trade in the first 5-minutes. I'll try out the smaller share size keys and see how that affects my mental. 

[Willy 25]

On 2/22/2019 at 10:28 AM, Brandon K said:

@Willy, thanks for your feedback! I changed my charts to include the 50MA again. Although, I don't remember whether it was an exponential or simple. I added exponential. I took the 50/200 off in an attempt to limit the amount of noise and indicators, but seems that it is also reducing information on the trades. I honestly have forgetten the power of VWAP and need to start back taking that into my decision making. When I see price actions close above VWAP on the first 5-minutes, I'm thinking bullish and then to see it fall like a brick from selling pressure. That messes with my mental and also when it happens the other way around. Struggling to figure out what is chop/fake outs , etc.

Hi Brandon, The 50 and 200 MA are simple (not exponential). The thing with VWAP strategies is that it depends of the time of the day. For example  (see chart below). i have learned that when you have a stock that have sold off (like CGC on feb 15) and the make a come back to VWAP. You don't go long when the first candle close above VWAP. Sometimes is a long but you have to wait for a pull back . But at the open (first half hour)  very often when a stock crosses VWAP it keeps that way (that is my main strategy), the only thing is that you have to buy o short sell very close to VWAP, you have to wait for the pull back some times.

 

[Brandon K 64]

On 2/23/2019 at 2:21 PM, Willy said:

Hi Brandon, The 50 and 200 MA are simple (not exponential). The thing with VWAP strategies is that it depends of the time of the day. For example  (see chart below). i have learned that when you have a stock that have sold off (like CGC on feb 15) and the make a come back to VWAP. You don't go long when the first candle close above VWAP. Sometimes is a long but you have to wait for a pull back . But at the open (first half hour)  very often when a stock crosses VWAP it keeps that way (that is my main strategy), the only thing is that you have to buy o short sell very close to VWAP, you have to wait for the pull back some times.

Yeah, today I got burned bad by an engulfing pattern on $AMRN. Problem is I didn't wait for a pullback. 9MA 5-minute was above VWAP so more than likely was extended.

 

[Brandon K 64]

2/25/2019

Changes made:

• Lowered share sizing to 50/75/100 on normal hotkeys and 200/300/400 on heavy hotkeys.

Felt that I traded well, could have stopped out earlier on a few trades, but felt like I recognized set ups today. Stopped out early on some of my trades, but that's okay. Slowly getting in the mindset that it's better to risk commissions than a big loss.

Watchlist:

$AMRN - Was looking for the ORBD.. Price action closed below 5/1-minute VWAP. Went short 75 shares and got squeezed up to 5-minute VWAP and sold for a loss. Price action continued to squeezed making an engulfing pattern. Another short opportunity came around 10-1015.  I watched, but did not take the trade.

$ROKU - Looking for the ORBD. Went short into a pullback to the 9MA 1-minute. Should have waited for a close realizing the price action was choppy. Shorted 75 shares and stopped out above the 9MA 5-minute. Better play would have been to avoid this all together although the first 5-minutes were clean. Came back with a play to the long side looking for an ABCD play. Went long after consolidation above the 9MA 1-minute, covered at VWAP for a loss after the price action dropped.

\

$IQ - Was trading both $IQ and $CRON together.  $IQ dropped like a brick in the first 5 so I expected a pullback of some sort before a good entry would show. Waited and went short 75 shares looking for the play towards 26.41. Got distracted and missed my exit point to lock in some kind of gains. Waited at VWAP on whether to cover and averaged up 75 shares. Waited for a break down and covered my position after going green. 

Came back with another short of 50 shares looking for a 9MA 5-minute reject and got the move. Thought I took 75 shares, but hot key'd 50. Covered everything near the 27 level. Would have liked the 26.41 area, but took everything off before then.

$CRON - Price action was nice on $CRON so I waited for an entry. Waited for a pullback on the 1-minute near the 9MA 1-minute. Covered after a few minutes thinking the price action was gonna squeeze. Should have held this a bit longer.

Got back in for another short opportunity. Got the close below the 9MA 5-minute and started making lower highs. I went short 75 shares looking for a move down towards low of day. Covered for a small loss after the price action went strong.

Took one more short 75 shares after rejecting VWAP on the 5-minute and closing below the 9MA 5-minute. Covered for a small gain after the price action stalled.

Result:

[Brandon K 64]

2/27/2019

Still struggling to find consistency, but well on the way there. I'm not gonna give up. I've always felt like I was right there at the point of figuring out the balance between myself and trading.

Didn't get good screenshots of my trades.

APHA - Went long 200 shares using heavy hot keys because APHA doesn't move much. Was looking for a move towards high of day, but price action collapse shortly after my entry. Entry was good, exit was good as well. Exit was set up as a stop limit order that triggered.

$HTZ - Went short on $HTZ 75 shares looking for a move down towards low of day. Price action attemped to and bears lost control and began to cover. I covered right before the squeeze. Got back in on the 9MA 5-minute reject and got the move down. Shorted 75 shares and got the move down to previous day close. Covered everything. Probably could have held longer, but I like having a target.

$ETSY - Was looking for a long play, but felt like a short play was possible to the 9MA 5-minute. Went short 50 shares and stopped out from fear of a squeeze. Price action sold off afterwards.

Came back with another short 100 shares after the price action closed below VWAP. Waited for a pullback and got an entry at the 9MA 1-minute. Covered everything after getting a big drop through the 20MA 5-minute. 

Took 1 trade to the long side 50 shares looking for a play towards high of day. Price action dropped and I stopped out at the break of VWAP. Price action came back afterwards.

$M - Price action on $M held under the moving averages for several minutes. After seeing some downward motion on the 1-minute, I took it short 100 shares looking for previous day close. Got near that area and I covered everything. Should have held it longer or at least till the break of the 9MA 1-minute.

$HD - If I remember correctly, I went for an ORBD 75 shares after the first 5 -minutes. and got stopped out a few minutes later before a big squeezed happened.

Result:

[Brandon K 64]

2/27/2019

$BBY - Went long 75 shares on $BBY looking for a move to high of day. The price action shot up within seconds through high of day to the 70.39 level I had. Missed a sel point and end up eventually selling for a loss. Didn't trade this well. Got greedy thinking I'd let the winner run. After the minute was over after my entry, I was hoping that pullback would hold, but it didn't.

$LOW - Didn't have the most volume out of the bunch, but the price action was clean. Waited for an entry on the 1-minute after getting the close below the 50MA 5-minute. Went short 50 shares and got a good move to the downside. I didn't hold long and ended up covering before getting a bigger move down. I wanted previous day close but traded my P/L instead.

Came back with another short of 100 shares looking for a move down to low of day after getting the reject on the 9MA 5-minute. A lot of times, these rejects don't last long after attempting to break several times on the pullback so I covered when the price action felt like the bulls were taking over. I called this one correctly.

$TNDM - Got burned bad... Was looking for the long play. Didn't think about this 66.30 level. I had it on my chart, but for some reason I didn't see it on my chart when trading. I probably wouldn't ignored it was resistance expecting it to bust through. I went long 75 shares with a stop at the 9MA 1-minute. I think my entry was decent but could have been better. Got stopped out after the price action dropped hard.

Got back in for a short of 50 shares looking for a move to the downside. After getting slightly squeezed up, I covered thinking the price action would pop. 

Took one more trade on $TNDM short 75 shares and got a small move down. After surviving a pullback on the 1-minute, probably could have held it a bit longer. I was thinking that the price action might bounce off VWAP since $TNDM was up over 15% on the day. Price action sold off cleanly below VWAP so definitely a missed opportunity.

Watchlist:

Result:

Edited February 28, 2019 by Brandon K

[Brandon K 64]

2/28/2019

Felt like I did very well today. Managed risk well, although I did have a moment where I wanted to go big. I hit the hot key to load up on shares, but luckily my hot keys weren't configured for big share sizes. I would have stopped out, but the move did happen shortly afterwards. Point is, I'm working on not impulsively going big on share sizes and instead going with the amount of risk that allows me to hold through pullbacks and still offer meaningful potential.

$CGC - Price action came out the gate strong. I went long 75 shares after getting a pullback and the price action dropped. Stopped out at VWAP. 

Second trade.. before taking the trade I thought whether or not this was a short. I realized that the price action didn't close below the 20MA 5-minute. Instead I went long 75 shares with a stop near low of day. Price action squeezed up from there. Sold my shares after the price action pulled back near the 9MA 5-minute. Should've held a bit longer. Need to work on that.

Third trade I went short looking for the 50MA 5-minute. I went short 75 shares after the price action consolidated under the 9MA 5-minute and challenged VWAP several times. Covered everything after the price action felt like it was losing steam. It did push down a bit before squeezing.

$JD - Was looking for the ORBD, but the price action was so far from VWAP and  the 9MAs. Waited for a pullback and got in short 75 shares on the 1-minute. Got out for a small loss after thinking the price action would squeeze. Got back in for another short 75 shares looking for the 9MA 5-minute reject. Stopped out before the price action squeezed. Gave it a few minutes and it didn't move so felt like the move was over.

Went back short on $JD looking for the 9MA 5-minute reject. I hit the hot keys for 200-400 shares and glad it didn't go through. I might have stopped out. Working on not impulse and greed trading. Went short 75 shares and stopped out after the price action pushed above VWAP. Price action sold off afterwards.

$SQ - Went long 75 shares on $SQ after getting in on the 9MA 5-minute reject. Sold everything at the break of a new 5-minute high. For some reason, I didn't trust the price action to run up. 

Got back in for a short 75 shares after seeing the roll over on the 1-minute. After getting a good push down through VWAP, I waited for the move down to the 20MA 5-minute. Covered everything at the 20.

$CELG - Patiently waited for $CELG to set up for a VWAP reject. I saw it at the 9MA 5-minute and watched it not reverse and continue to uptrend. Felt in control of my emotions by waiting. After the price action closed below the 5-minute, I waited 1-minute for more confirmation and went short 75 shares. Got the move down and covered everything a few minutes later. I felt like what I got from the trade was enough and covered everything. Price action squeezed from there.

Result:

Edited March 1, 2019 by Brandon K

[Brandon K 64]

I've been keeping share sizing under control. Will continue to do this and build the discipline of taking the right size for the trade.

Also, I have a fear of losing profits and trades going against me. I take profits too early and sometimes I let profits slip away and turn to losers.

The alternative to this might be to take profits on quick moves more and try holding trend trades longer. 

It's one of those situations where I don't want to miss out on profits to grow the account or make up a loss. In both cases, I'm trading the P/L and not the price action.

[Brandon K 64]

3/1/2019

$NTNX - Price action gapped down in pre-market and sold off hard at open. After the first 5-minutes, good entry showed at minute 6, but was not ideal for a 9MA entry. I waited for a better entry and went short 75 shares. I eventually covered after about 5-minutes before the price action pulled back.

Came back with a long play 100 shares on $NTNX to the upside looking for VWAP on the 5-minute. Might have set that target too far off, but the price action didn't break the 20MA 1-minute. I probably should have sold everything there, but I sold when the price action rolled over.

$NTNX - Took one more trade on $NTNX which was my last trade of the day. After the price action closed under VWAP/9MA 5-minute twice, I went short 75 shares looking for low of day. I almost covered a few minutes before my exit when the price action chopped. I could have held longer, but I think I traded it the right way. If I had more shares, this would have been a partial cover point and maybe the next drop being the final cover point.

$SQ - Price action sold off hard at open, Waited for an entry at the 9MA 1-minute and shorted 75 shares. I was trading this alongside $NTNX. My ultimate target was around 77.50 which was the 9MA 1-Day. I missed the cover point and covered for a small loss at the break of the 9MA 1-minute. 

Came back with another short attempt on $SQ after the price action closed below VWAP and the 9MA 5-minute. My original stop was above the previous 5-minute candle. Should've kept that target but I stopped out after the price action challenged VWAP again. Price action rolled over afterwards. Another missed opportunity.

$GPS - Watched this one for awhile. Previous price actions showed a trend on the 9MA 5-minute. After seeing the close under VWAP and then the 9MA 5-minute, I took it short 75 shares. Got instantly squeezed up and covered for a loss at VWAP. I think the signal was there, but got caught in a trap.

 

Result:

 

[Brandon K 64]

3/4/2019

Didn't trade 100% today. Got smacked a few times at market open.

• Made one trade long that I normally would have shorted. Read the signal wrong. Need to start following my first thought.
• Took a few trades too early.
• Stopped out on some trades too early and others on time.
• Overtraded a bit.
• Sizing was good.

$EA - Price action gapped up and faded in pre-market. Afgter the first 5-minutes, waited for an entry and watched whether the price action would close above the 50MA 5-minute. I saw the 50MA and previous day close as support. But, on the 1-minute, it set up nicely for a short. I went long 100 shares looking for a pop with 3 previous bullish candles on the 1-minutes as confirmation. Stopped out for a bigger lost than I wanted. Stop was below the previous 3 candles, but I held till previous day close. Normally, I would have taken this trade to the long side with an entry at the 9MA 1-minute. Would have been a nice break down. Next time, will follow the trend.

Second trade on $EA was the opposite of my first. I went short 75 shares looking for a move down to the 95.50s level, but got squeezed up on a reversal. Read the price action wrong again. 

Third trade, went short 100 shares after getting a close below VWAP and the 9MA 5-minute. Didn't get the move I was looking for right away and covered for a small loss.

$NTNX - Missed the ORBD. Waited for a pullback and went short 75 shares looking for a reverse ABCD pattern. Entry was too early and stopped out at VWAP.

Came back with a proper short at the 9MA 1-minute and covered at the break of a new 5-minute low. 

There's a possibility I would have taken the trade a lot earlier had I waited for confirmation.

$NTNX - Took one more trade. My signal was the close above the 9MA 5-minute. Many were already in this trade, but I went long 100 shares with a stop below 33. Moved my stop near break even after getting positive moves up. Sold everything at the 20MA 5-minute.

$SQ - Missed the ORBD. Waited for a pullback and went short 75 shares at the 9MA 1-minute. Added 75 more and looked for a move down. Set a hard stop at 77 as a stop out point. Stopped out for a loss.

$SQ - After getting a close above VWAP, but under the 9MA 5-minute, I looked for a fade.  Went short 75 shares looking for a break below 76.93. Could have covered at that point, but ended up covering at break even. 

Got back in for another short after getting a close below both VWAP/9MA 5-minute. Covered near break even after the price action felt like it wasn't gonna go. Few minutes later the sell off happened. 

For reference on these two trades, my original stop loss was around 77.50, but I moved it after getting some play in the positive direction.

Result:

[Brandon K 64]

3/5/2019

Today went well on my entries, but I didn't take profits when I should have. I got caught up in looking for that home run trade and I thought I had one. Took profits for a lot less than the potential.

$WB - Went short 100 shares on $WB after getting a good close below VWAP entry. My signal was the close below VWAP on both the 5/1-minute and the consolidation at the 9MA 1-minute. After getting a push down, I was looking for the 65 area. I think my target was too far away. I ended up covering for a small gain after the price action retraced. Still a good trade, but my blew the exit bad.

Now that I'm thinking about it, maybe I shouldn't have expected the price action to fill that gap with that long wick in the previous candle.

This one trade on $WB would've made my week, though so gotta keep that in mind when trading p/l. Didn't feel like I did, but felt greed at the same time.

$TGT - Took two trades and got pretty ambitious on the second. I'm beginning to feel those times to go heavy and times to not. This was a time to go heavy. First trade, I shorted in a pullback looking for the roll over back to low of day. Shorted 75 shares and stopped out before the squeeze. I think this trade would've went either way since the price action consolidated between the 9/20MA 1-minute without closing above/below either. Glad I felt the time to close the trade after the 9MA 1-minute began to uptrend.

$TGT - Went short again after getting a close below VWAP/9MA 5=minute. Went short 75 shares looking for that roll over. Stop was above VWAP. I added 75 shares after the price action could move up. Bears lost control of the price action and I got out at VWAP before the price action squeezed.

Result:

[Brandon K 64]

3/6/2019

 

$DLTR - Price action closed below VWAP and the 9MA 5-minute. Was looking for a move back down the previous day close. Went short 75 shares at the 9MA 1-minute. Didn't get the move immediately, but stopped out at the 9MA. Got a small move down before the price action squeezed. on the 1-minute, price action made lower highs lower lows. Probably noise, though.

Came back with another trade on $DLTR looking for a move down through VWAP. Went short 75 shares after the pullback on the 1-minute and covered everything at the bottom of the gap. Price action didn't hold and squeezed. Glad I covered

$ANF - Price action appeared bullish during the first 5. Waited for a pullback to the 9MA 1-minute and went long 200. I went long 200 shares because of the distance from the entry at the 9MA 1-minute stop out point. Sold half near the top and sold everything on the next candle.

Took $ANF to the short side 75 shares after the price action rolled over. Wanted the 50MA 1-minute around 24.70. Price action got near that area and I covered everything on the way up back up through VWAP.

Price action formed an upside down hammer and closed above VWAP. I was talking about this trade and said this would be the time to go long since the price action couldn't break VWAP. I'm beginning to see long trade easier now instead of being completely short biased.

$MU - Missed a ORBD and VWAP/9MA reject on the 5-minute.

$SE - Nice reject of the 9MA 5-minute and close under VWAP for a fade.

Result:

Edited March 8, 2019 by Brandon K