Live Journal Exercise – Learning to Trade an Edge like a Casino

[Mike B 624]

1 hour ago, Tommy said:

How many tickets are you watching at the same time? I watch 3 at the moment. I wish I could watch more  but the truth is I am hardly capable (read not yet) of keeping an eye on all of them. But still, with just 1 you need to be a bit lucky I think and picky on what you are watching. I travel a lot for work, spend about 100 nights or more per year  in a hotel and those days the past months I could always see just 1. I find it not enough to be safe. 

I watch 3 total each day because of the number of screens I have. I found though that I trade better when i only have 2 on my watchlist. I am pretty picky at what I put on my watchlist each morning. I have set parameters because anything outside of that I found I do not trade well. It not the number of stocks you are watching but the quality of stocks that you watch. Sometimes I am just not watching the right stocks, and I end up having a no trade day.

[Mike B 624]

May 23, 2019 - $AMD (Profit Target)

Today was the model for how I hope to trade everyday in the future. I put $AMD on my list because me and $MU just do not get along for some reason. I saw the rejection at VWAP and entered. I was a little quick on my first two covers, but I believe that was more because of the last week of having a few losers. I let my last little bit run to the profit target and got out when i started noticing the buyers taking control of the price action. 

Overall, though great day and I needed it to replenish some of the emotional capital I have been losing in the last couple weeks.

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

May 24, 2019 - Nothing

I only got about 5 hours of sleep last night, so I decided to only trade simulator today. Too bad $FL didn't wait till the open to dump. Still had some great catch-able moves though afterwards.  

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

May 28, 2019 - Nothing - Didn't have time to post yesterday.

May 29, 2019 - $AMD (Profit Target)

What a day. I finally got an entry on $AMD short around 0945. I was looking at taking it near the open, but it didn’t reject VWAP. Later I was looking at it for a long, but again it didn’t hold VWAP to the long side. I got my entry on the next test of VWAP, although it was a little scary as it put in a double bottom, but once it dropped with volume I entered. Took my first partial at the moving average, which coincided with the double bottom. Second partial at my original profit target level, and held the rest to my second profit target. Overall it was a good trade, I usually don’t like trading the 15 min dojis, but everything else was there.

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G G 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

May 30, 2019 - $AMD x 2 (2 Partials)

I not sure why I keep gravitating towards $AMD this week, but I do. Maybe because of the small gappers the past two days for mid and high float stocks.

1^st Trade – Entered when the stock kept rejecting VWAP and the Moving Averages and made a new low from the previous 1 minute candle. Took profit at the low of the day and exited at my breakeven.

2^nd trade – Had a great 15 min ORB setup and entered again when the stock rejected VWAP and loss the moving averages again. Took profit again at the low of the day and exited at my breakeven. It just did not want to go green to red in the morning.

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G G P P 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

May 31, 2019 - $AMD (Partial)

Took 1 live trade on $AMD, probably should have taken a second, but with it being Friday and getting a good trade right off the back I did not feel like giving anything back.

I entered without any hesitation or really thought about whether I was right or wrong. Money was absolutely not on my mind. I saw pullback to VWAP, a strong rejection, and heavy pop above the previous candle. I went long as soon as it broke the previous candle and moving averages.  My first cover was when it made a new high of the day. Second cover was after a quick pop up. I should have waited till it hit the 200 SMA Moving Average on the 5 min chart. I was a little early. I exited when it made a new 1 minute low and when above the 200 Moving average on 5 min then quickly dropped below.

Another entry opportunity presented itself at 9:58, but I was already into journaling and already quite for the day. This trade would have made it to the profit target.

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G G P P P 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

June 3, 2019 - $AMD (Stop, Partial)

I was not confident, even when I took a couple of good entries, my emotions were not in check, so my profit taking plan was not good. I missed an entry on $TEVA, along with seeing $AMD shoot through the roof in the pre-market, I just had a whole lot of FOMO that was causing issues with my execution of the trade.

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G G P P P S P 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

June 4, 2019 - $AMD (Profit Target)

Well I will take it. Today, I had $UBER and $AMD and of course $AMD gave me the opportunity at the open. I was actually a little long bias on $AMD as I saw a lot of big Asks in the pre-market around the 28.48 level. When the stock bought off at the open I figured it was going to be a long, but then it sold off in the next minute.  I entered when the stock pullback towards VWAP, rejected VWAP, and engulfed the previous 1 minute candle stick. This is my entry that I like to see on the ORBs.

Overall a good day. 

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G G P P P S P G 18 19 20

Edited June 6, 2019 by Mike B

[Mike B 624]

June 5, 2019 - $AMD (Stop) $CRON (Stopped x 2, Partial 1)

First, the greatest thing about today is tomorrow I get to start a new sample set, so today can be quickly forgotten about. Hulk 101 for me today. Terrible discipline

Second, thank goodness that I had the discipline to execute my stops, otherwise today could have ended with me blowing up my account.

Last, I have come so far from my first posting with regards to being able to be wrong and deal with losses. I am currently feeling actually pretty optimistic about trading. I know these days will come. The main reason from my sample sets was to help me with losing and being wrong. Today, I lost and was wrong, but I am feeling the same as yesterday when I won and was right. I am optimistic and love this career. I know the reason the outcome happened, because I did not execute the steps in my trade plan well.

Sample Set Results,

S P P P P S P P S G G P P P S P G 18 19 20

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Mike B

[Mike B 624]

June 6, 2019 - $AMD (Partial)

Poor trade management. After yesterday's loss, I was a little shaken today. I should not have exited when the stock tested the moving averages again. I should have let it run to my break even before exiting like my trade plan calls for. I got out early and then the stock ran on me. I am ok with it, but it is a reminder that if you trade not to lose, you also do not gain. Today I was trading not to lose instead of trading my plan. Good lesson though, I am happy with the entry i took especially after having to sit through the first thirty minutes without seeing an entry. 

This weekend I plan on summarizing my previous sample set and defining this sample set.

Sample Set Results,

P 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

June 10, 2019 - $AMD (Partial)

I was a little worried about the choppiness of $AMD at the open and I was a little over cautious today due to my performance last week. I had to remind myself that each trade is independent of the last trade.

I entered a little late, which caused me to worry that I was chasing the stock. I should have evaluated the stock completely before exiting the trade. The indicators were on my side.

I didn't have much time this weekend to work the analysis on the last sample set as I had some family commitments, but this week I will post the analysis as well as the adjustments I did for the next sample set as my entry point has changed a little.

Sample Set Results,

P P 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Edited June 11, 2019 by Mike B

[Mike B 624]

June 11, 2019 - $MU (Partial x 2, Stopped)

At the open $AMD sold off quickly at the pre-market and continued to sell off at the open. I had a little FOMO but just relaxed and choose to just watch for my indicators and look for a good opportunity to enter. I added $MU on my watchlist because it hit the gappers with volume. $MU and I do not get along so I was a little hesitate to added it as I usually get burned when I do. Today, it gave a couple good opportunities and I traded it well.

I was able to execute my trade plan three times today. I took a 5 ORBD and a 15 ORBD x 2. I should have stayed in the second trade but got out quick. I re-entered at a lower price after I realized what I did.

Sample Set Results,

P P P S P 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

 

[Mike B 624]

June 12, 2019 - $MU (Partial x 2, Stopped)

My first trade I entered a little early and did not have good emotional control which added to my emotions on the second trade. Both outs on the second trade were completely emotional because of the first trade. After these two trades I took a deep breath and focused on trading a 15 minute opening range breakdown. I have to remember to focus on the 1 minute after I have indicators on the 5 and 15 minute charts. My third trade was well executed from start to finish it just did not push lower and did another pullback towards VWAP before breaking down.

Sample Set Results,

P P P S P S P P 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 624]

June 13, 2019 - $AMD (Partial x 2)

A choppy day today all around. I had $TLRD and trusty $AMD on my watchlist. Everything else was either to expense or to high of an ATR for me.

Took two live trades on $AMD, a 5 and 15 min ORBD. I got a couple partials, but the stock would just not break past the 31.95 level before coming back to my breakeven each time. After getting chopped up on the first 2 trades, I decided to call it a day. There was a possible another opportunity to enter one last time (Andrew took it), but it didn’t pull back far test VWAP enough for me to be comfortable trying to short again with the heavy resistance at 31.95 as the entry would have been quite extended from VWAP. Looking back though it did form a double top below VWAP. Oh well still a good day on my executions.

Sample Set Results,

P P P S P S P P P P 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

 

[Mark D. 435]

you took your entry on the second trade right on my exit. i should have held on. great job!