Hello there :)

[Nemo 0]

Hi,

 

not sure if anyone is reading this but I'll give it a ty :).

My Name is Daniel, I am trading from Germany, Central Europe. I started Summer 22, read all books from Andrew and have a SetUp ready with DAS and BBT. I am simulating on a daily base since this year and wonder if I go real soon or if it's too early. Theroy-wise I am currently doing the BBT basic modules and am reading The Playbook from M. Bellafiore.

My current missions are to establish a consistent set of logging, using Chartlog and to improve my strategies with a current focus on exiting / taking profit.

I would be highly interested at any kind of contact ands exchange on these or other newbie topics, please reach out :).

 

Looking forward to meet you all,

Cheers

Daniel

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Nemo

[Martin D 27]

Hey,

Read this couple days ago and thought I'd give newer traders or someone who uses chartlog first chance to reach out. I don't think the forum is really active unfortunately.

In terms of going live, don't rush it. Many traders just end up with a downward equity curve going live to quickly (me included). Test things out and prove to yourself you're profitable in sim first.

I saw your post separately on chartlog, I don't use it personally so I can't really offer specific advice. There's a video in the education center about journaling so maybe give that a watch. 

I'm no longer a newbie but if you have any questions then fell free to reach out or the mentorships are also a good place to ask questions also.

Martin

[Nemo 0]

Hi Martin,

thanks a lot for your reply! I agree, this forum doesn't look to active any more.

What would you consider a or some reasonable KPI to achieve in sim before going live? I think of something like getting green, a certain avg P&L  / day, a certain win rate, a certain R rate or how successful my strategies are?

Also thanks for pointing me into direction of the journaling video, will definetly check it out.

Cheers

Daniel

 

[Martin D 27]

It's quite personal because it depends on your strategy. Aiman did a video recently where I think he suggested 3 consecutive green months in sim though.

However, in terms of win rate or certain R that depends on your strategy. For example Thor has a target of like 4R (although is mostly always higher) and his success rate is well above 70% I believe. Aiman has a lower success rate but his R per trade is quite a bit higher.

In general terms there's two main things that will cause you to fail 1) a bad system 2) you don't follow your system (when it's good). Deal with the system first, trying to do both in live is what causes a lot of traders pain in the early days. Therefore you should be comfortably green but you should set that for yourself, like 50R per month 100R it's up to you.

For me the biggest thing with going live too early is the psychology changes when real money is on the line so you really, really, really need to trust your system to help you not fall for the impulses of not adhering to it. If you don't trust it explicitly then you start stopping out early (or not at all and blow up), taking profit too quickly etc thereby the whole premise of your system falls over. The only way to do it is to prove it to yourself that it works. Imo it's one of the biggest reason new traders bleed money in the beginning, it takes a lot out permanently while other persevere through it and give themselves a chance to become successful. 

Martin

[Nemo 0]

Hi Martin,

thanks again for your answer, this is high value input :).
I had been aware that one should only trade a proven system life, but the reasons you listed and the importance of that trust are new and important aspects to me.

As criteria for going live, I as well thought of going green for a certain period / average. But I have some doubts on this. I wonder if paper trading can be representive for real. I have one setup yet, that I like, that is simple, and I am consistently (slightly) profitable on, while I don't think that it's developed to it's full extend yet. But since I am simulating and learning, a try a lot of other set ups as well, I sometimes take unrealistic risks, I just do stupid thing intentionally, mostly to learn and to expiriment. And as one sure thing is that by this my sim account will never go green ;).

Therefore I wonder if it makes sense to go live with just one proven setup, do one or two trades a day with it, and meanwhile continue simulating, switching back to the paper account for all risky, doubtful, unsecure stuff. One reason to want this is to prove my first set up is right. But also I am hoping to make just $250 a month, to maintain DAS and BBT fees. I invest a lot in my learning, especially time but also money, and I would feel much better if I could at least get flat by these.

Would be great to hear your thoughts about this.

Cheers

Daniel

 

 

[Martin D 27]

It can be representative of everything except how you react when real money is on the line. Most people will react in some kind of way and so then it becomes difficult to gather accurate stats on your strategy which then spirals as you struggle to find your strategy issue without accurate data and your psychology issues about money make you do things because you doubt your strategy more and more as you lose and have no inner belief that it works because you don't have the data backing it up. If you deal with everything except the money aspect in SIM then at least you have the crutch of knowing the only thing stopping you is money psychology issues, if you don't then you'll be dealing with a wave of issues that all overlap and you'll struggle to dissect what the problem is.

Speaking as someone who had patience issues, are you treating SIM like a game for learning (you don't need to take a trade to watch how the market moves) or because you're impatient waiting for your setup? If you're trading really small size (with a goal of only $250) then it's still a game to most, couple of dollars here or there who cares? (unless you're in such money situation that you need it which presents it's own issues), if you go higher then you have the issues I mentioned above. Trying different setups in SIM is fine, like maybe your trying Thor's pivots and Aiman's reversals and John' HOD etc to see what you like best. Those are genuine setups you can gather data on, if you're just pressing trade for the sake of it and not gathering genuine data then I'd question your patience. I did the same thing so I'm not criticizing just asking whether you're being honest with yourself (because I wasn't).

You said slightly but what about comms when trading small size (it's a bigger proportion). It's a typical new trader mentality to think about the winnings, what about the potential losses? If you lose $250 (or more) a month instead what does that do to you? Can you afford it or will it take you out of the game? Many come in under capitalized take their hail mary  shot and exit trading, that's why the statistics of failed traders are so bad. I can't speak for you personally but the typical trader experience is live too early, pay market tuition, either push through it because they have the patience and the capital or exit the industry. It takes some a year, it takes some 3 years (or longer - there was a post on here a couple of months ago that took someone 4 and a half years to get back to breakeven) to get profitable and so you have to be realistic about what losses would do to you as well. 

This is only my perspective but if you spent a long time in SIM and failed then you'll pay education of BBT/DAS or whatever and that'll be your cost. If you go live and fail then you'll pay BBT/DAS and market tuition. If you go live an succeed then you cover the costs but given the statistics against you then on average you'll increase your cost, why can't you for a period of time only take your setup in SIM (and just watch everything else or take mental entries and stops), you don't need live to see if your setup works you need live to see whether you have money psychology issues but for me that's the last step because I have my working strategy to fall back on so I know what I'm dealing with. If you can't wait for your setup in SIM then I'd question your psychological readiness to go live. If you can only treat SIM as a game then you'll treat immaterial amounts as a game, if you trade material amounts then money psychology issues will make life difficult (as I spoke about above) and imo that's asking for trouble on a "slightly" green strategy.

Martin