noob 5 Posted October 11, 2021 (edited) Hi Everyone, I am embarking on one of the exercises that Mike B has done and documented based on the writings of Mark Douglas. My goals during this exercise are the following. Goals: No micromanaging, or reflexive trading. Pre-determine entries and exits. 20 trade sample size with a defined edge. 3-4 sets of trade sample with journaling. R = $200 Daily R goals 2.5 R Max daily R loss 1.5R Edge Defined I wanted to develop my own edge based on my strength and weakness. From my journaling, and self assessment, my strength and weakness are listed below. Strength: High Risk Tolerance // Without proper use of Risk Control, this is my one huge liability. Good read of price action and Candle stick analysis Consistent Big R days. 7-20 R days. Weakness: Undisciplined Risk management FOMO, when using smaller time frames Big risky addons Big Volatility in profits and loss Micromanaging during the trade Strategy: 30 MIn ORB. Based on my experience and observation, using a longer time frame allows me to stay more in the pocket of a trade, using a bigger and well defined stops, and exits. First trade can be conducted at the open, if a well defined price range established. Else, the first trade will be conducted after the first 30 mins of ORB. Criteria for Entry: Once the price is at the top or the bottom of the range, we can take a long or short, pending on the strength and volume of the candles. For considerations for long or short, we will look at the overall trend on the daily, weekly, Pre-mkt high/low, and previous days open/close and the pivot points. Once I am ready for an entry, I will observe the 2/5 min candles, and find the lowest volume candle. The candles that follows the low volume, must have more then 1.5 x higher then the lowest volume candle, and it must move in the direction of the long or short. Long can be from the bottom of the range, or breaking out at the top. Good long entry on a bullish stock is the 9/20 trade. If the price is breaking at the top of the range, wait for a pull back (9/20), and a rising volume for the 2nd breakout point for entry. If the price is at the bottom of the range, and playing for long, wait for the first bullish candle with volume. One strong indicator that may show a sign of reverse is the spin top candle. Preferably, with a small to medium body, and long wicks. Price pivots on the 5 min is useful on price change. Most important, price range established by the 30 min ORB is very important. **Short plays will be just the opposite from above. ====================== Stock Watchlist ==================== Float - High or Medium float. > 50 Mil. Catalyst - n/a but big news is always considered. Price Spread = < .03 Volume = Higher then the normal Volume. Exchange = Nasdaq ===================== Trade management ===================== If the entry is within the 30 min range, the target exit will be the high or low of that range, pending on the long/short strategy. Stop is placed using the Kyle's dynamic hotkey with a fixed $ size equal to 1R($35). 1st partial 50% = > 1R #b/e stop placed 2nd Partial 50% = 1/2 ATR or other technical levels. #b/e stop placed Trail stop placed at 20ma of the 5 min candle implemented after 2nd partial. .25 R invested. B/E stop is removed. Share Size: Pending on Kyle's hot key. It is fixed dollar amount, and the size is dependent on the stock price. **3/4/2022*************** New trade management addedum. Take partials on losing trade to minimize risk. Also, 1st partial pending on the movement and stop size, anywhere between 20% to 50% to 100%. Biggest thing is the idea of taking partials only when green is not ideal. If the price moves against you, why wait for the stop out. Reduce your exposure, and give it a chance to play out, else stop out or close out. See this post from 3/4 for more details of implementation and the psychology behind it. **************************** Add ons. If the price is moving in the right direction, using the ABCD setup, add on 1R, if the price has not exceeded the daily ATR and the price is supported with Volume. If the price moves without volume, use caution. Possible trap setup. Day Trade Mental Check List ————————————————— Do you have a direction bias on the price? I have accepted on the unpredictability of the market. Are you certain on the momentum of a position to add on aggressively? One entry, one risk, one trade at a time. No more add ons, unless the trade is working extremely well. I believe the opportunities to make good trades are in abundance and money flows through me. Are you willing to bet on a position when it is extended? There is always a risk. Best to use your risk controls, and do not abandon it. Do you have the stops and risk control in place? I am confident on my trades, but the risk control is there to assist me, not to hinder me. Better the small daily loss, then large. Are you entries well defined technical levels, and the stops and targets defined? I plan my entries, stops, and target exits within 30 min range. Holding anything longer is just a lost cause. Entries will always be low for long, and high for short. I will have the patience to wait for the price levels to be crossed when playing a position. ================================== Technical Check off before each trade. ================================= what is the Ticker? What is the size position or Risk Level? What is the entry price level? What is the stop level? What is the target exit? What are the daily, pre-market, and moving averages? How does the L2 coincide with the technical levels above. Is the entry extended? If yes and a continuation, consider a smaller R value. Is there a large wick, that the 30 min candle closed on, that the price can retest? are the entry, stop and exit near a technical level, cam pivot, daily levels, moving average? *check diff time frames. If not a continuation, is it channeling, or sign of a selloff, or a reversal? Are we trading off the 30 min ORB, or pre-market range? If not, use smaller risk value, and bigger stops. Do not add on, unless it has moved to a different technical level, not on the first minor pullback. If trading a reversal, wait for the price hit the liquidation mark, and the moving averages and the candles to level off, and show a sign of either support or resistance, pending on the direction change. Did we check other time frames to see if the technicals of the moving average, and levels coincide with the L2 depth? How can you use the 9/20 as an entry signal? use the crossover indicators on the 2 min chart. Edited April 18, 2022 by noob update. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted January 26, 2022 Addendum. I have been getting better with my trades. The thing I am working on is timing the entry, and accept the missed opp, and not give into fomo. I missed a trade on $aapl yesterday, and did what i thought, but didn't stop out, due to not entering a pos. too early. I am working on defining a target price for entry, but realize that once a price gets to that level, it may oscillate around that price point. Understanding the diff behaviors of diff stocks on a diff day, and try to not enter immediately, and then wait to see if the price moves. If the price is moving on a trend, just the right amount of momentum or lack of, can help define a better timing to an entry. However, if it is a bounce or reversal, there is usually a period of deceleration of the price, as it defines a new price structure, before it decides to move up further in continuation or reverse. This is what I am adding to my current trade. I define the level of a price entry, base don the big bids and ask in the L2. Once a price is defined, I will then use the 2/5 min candle ATR to help determine the high and low of that range. If I am looking to go long, I will try to enter on the 2nd-4th time the price hits that low end. Example. If the entry is defined at $100, and the price sells off at the open, and there is a big bid @$100, I will to enter, once the price has absorbed the entire lot @$100, and then wait for it to establish the new range. Based on the nearby levels, Moving average, pre-mkt, and daily, I will use it to help define further sell off, or if it finds a equilibrium. Based on the ATR of 2/5 min candle, i will use that to find the high and low range. Ex. $appl may have 50 Cent ATR on the 2/5 min candle. I can use that and go either 50 above or 50 low, or half of that, 25 cents above/below. That may also be dependent on other technical levels mentioned above. Once it hits, for example in the range of $99.5, - $99.75, that would be lower range to buy for a long position. The ideal stop would be a major technical level below, pivot point, moving average, daily/pre-mkt levels, and big bids setting below that level. ** Here is a specific on my target exit. My final exits will always be based on the next level of big liquidity, and help correlate and confirm based on the technical levels defined previously. This will help me with a greater degree of confidence that the price may move based on the 'auction theory." See Thor's and Jarad's webinars on that subject. Here and now on, I will start posting the results of my daily trades. All good and bad. *Special shout out to Crede's Money Mentality. It was groundbreaking for me. Highly recommended it for the meta portion of your psyche in day trading. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joshm823 1 Posted January 27, 2022 Awesome job Noob looking forward to following the sample set and checking out the results. I'm going to review some of my trades and see how the 30 minute range could of better help indicate trade direction. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 1, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 7:33 PM, joshm823 said: Awesome job Noob looking forward to following the sample set and checking out the results. I'm going to review some of my trades and see how the 30 minute range could of better help indicate trade direction. yean man, I am going to post my trades here for review, and see how it develops. let me know if you have any questions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 9, 2022 Had couple of bad trades this Monday 2/7 - 2/8 2022. Didn't follow my rules or strat, and it costed me. Good thing was I managed my emotions and didn't revenge trade. Took my medicine and stopped after the one and done loss. Today, the market was tough to trade, very choppy at the open. I played my strat, and managed to garner a nice 2R day, with relative ease and minimal risk. I played $aapl, and $fb. $aapl, I managed to break even, but FB, I managed to get a nice green day. Good trades, risk management, and trade management. Didn't chase the price. Momentum traders got chewed up at the open today, due to the choppy price action. I just rode the channels of wave, and the strat held me together. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 14, 2022 Had a decent trade on $AMD, good vol pre-mkt, and bullish at the open. Broke my rule on the first short, and stopped out. Managed to get two good trades for a small green day. Not bad overall. Link to the tweet with analysis is below. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 14, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 7:33 PM, joshm823 said: Awesome job Noob looking forward to following the sample set and checking out the results. I'm going to review some of my trades and see how the 30 minute range could of better help indicate trade direction. Hi Joshm823, Yeah, Journaling helps tons. I have to use 30 min setup, because I like to plan out my trade. Reactive trading is where I usually am my worst, which is usually done with the smaller time frames. But getting better at it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 16, 2022 (edited) Stuck to my rule today, and it paid out. Biggest thing that I am most proud of was the risk control, and the entries. Noticed a big buyer $170.5, and I waited for the price to move through it, and come back to that level, before buying in. First 2 tries, I was stopped out b/e after taking the first partial. Good risk management, with init stop $170, and b/e, after partial to $170.5. Had 95% of the positions partial out with profit of $700, and played the free roll. It went against me, and stopped out at b/e, near the 170.9. All done. Overall very happy with the trade. One thing to note, the stock was in sync with the 15 min candle, on the moving averages. Sometimes, pending on the time of the day, a stock may move with the technicals of moving average of 2/5/15/30/hour/daily moving average, so it is always goo to check other time frames. 15 min was the key today. I used the 30 min orb, but used the 2 min and the 15 min to assess the setup. Typically, I use 2/30 mins exclusively. The partials on the first two entries, was done at the 9 ma off of the 2 min candle. Small partials, but good to always have a green start with a stop at b/e. Good day indeed. Keep working and grinding on the risk management. That's all i can do for now. Later BBT Fam. Edited February 16, 2022 by noob Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 17, 2022 Bad trade, even though, I managed to make 1.5 R Just not focused, and was on a call with the customer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 17, 2022 I was not very focused, and was distracted by work, during the trades. Just did the bonehead move on the $AMD, stupid add ons, when the price was stalling, and moved away from me. I did one thing great, $dash was a good setup and trade. Other two more of a luck. I did stop after I had a max pos loss on $amd, with total p/l -$288 for the day. I didn't remove my risk control to revenge trade. There will be another day. Live to trade another day. Today was not my best. I would say I was at best a C level, not my A game. If I managed and played to the C level, I could have scored the $600, for 3R day, but for now, taking my medicine with 1.5 R loss. **Note, my normal R level is $500, but today, due to the overall C level feel, and playing continuation on a price that was extended, that was a good call. Just a bonehead play on $AMD, I am shaking my head. Still learning and grinding. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 23, 2022 Today I started off pretty good, and once I was $400 green, I regressed to my old risky, super aggressive trade style. Still need to adhere to my risk management, and rules for entries, and trades. Held the bag, and managed to go from red, back to green. smh. Still so much to work on. Below are my trades from today posted on Twitter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
noob 5 Posted February 23, 2022 https://twitter.com/daytradenoob1/status/1496521436198064131?s=20&t=OoTYHMtnRN0lF23mYHYKwA Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
