VPA Analysis

[Honeyman 3]

I'm hoping to start a topic where we can share and get feedback on our VPA.

this example is from AAPL on may 25th 2021.

I can see from the the last 3 days that $128 has rejected price and created a strong resistance level. with today opening just below this level, a higher value pivot relationship and a narrow pivot width there is the potential for a break out from R3(breakouts are supposed to be from R4). As  this will be the fourth attempt to break this level it will need a lot of volume to push above it and search for higher value.

The open candle,  volume comes in but it moves lower not higher and in the last 20 seconds of the first candle it is bought back up and closes above VWAP forming a hammer. The second candle instantly pops up through all the levels of resistance and forms a tall wide body candle and then just hangs out there as the volume(40% less volume then first candle.) doesn't catch up with the move. The third candle has even less volume and a small body. on the fourth candle when it gets stuffed again  and makes a new low. time to go short for the ride to S3. 

this feels to me  like this was a trap and the price was moved above the resistance levels to get a bunch of longs trapped and then use their stops and new shorts to push price back down to a previous value area.

trap # 1. the opening candle closing above VWAP as a hammer.

trap #2.the second candle moving aggressively through the resistance on low volume. it looked like a strong move until taking volume into account.

trap #3. the third candle looking like a slight slow down in the move up but that the move  should continue. trapping the FOMO(late) longs..

and then they bring in a little selling volume to close the next candle below the previous and away it goes.

let me know if you have a different read  or see anything I missed

 

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by a1sauce

[Honeyman 3]

AAPL JULY 6th

i can see on the daily chart a strong level of resistance at $140. with the open today above that level i can expect a test of the level and an exploration for hight value. looking at the run up AAPL has been on the volume has been avereag or less then average signalling not a lot of strength in the bull run. by looking back in march when it broke this level it ran up to $145 but sold off fairly quickly. AApl is also opening just below the R3 level and it could act as resistance.

the 5 minute chart shows me a higher value relationship providing me with a bullish bias.  the povit width is wider then the previous days, lowering the possiblity of a break out. But with the bullish trend and opeining above the cental pivot range and strong level of resistanc i will be looking for a long position off of the$140 resistance level and evalute my trade for a break out or reversal at R3 and R4. i would not expect a move past $145  and would be looking for signs of reversal from $142 on. if the stock sells off at the open and crosses $140 with volume i will cosider a short then or wait for a pull back after the level is broken depending on the conviction of the move. possible targets for a short would be $137 area.

at the open the stock has allready tested the $140 level and long at the open is looking like a good prospect. the first candle moves on high volume with a wide body cofirming the move and closes on R3. The next candle is a wide body with low volume for the body size and the third candle has increased volume but closes with a long upper wick.  possibly signalling a false break out from R3. AApl then sells off on low volume with wide body candles showing the move down is weak. The price moves down the premarket high and bounces for the contiuation long. APPL then moves up to $143 where it consolidates below R6 on low volume. At $142.75  there is a large move up followed by a large move down possibly setting a pivot and the top of a range. Then when it pushes past that level towards R6 it is on decreasing average volume confirming the top of the range or consolidation ahed. Possible signals for a short from R6 3 sets of bearish engulfing candles at 10:07, 10:15 and 10:30. There is also an extreme reversal set up at 10:22. Aapl then sold off on decreasing volume back to market open.